- Al Horford was traded by Philadelphia just one year into his four-year contract with the club, but the veteran big man is looking forward to making the most of his new role with the Thunder, per Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. “I wasn’t expecting (to be traded),” Horford said. “But I’ve known the type of organization the Oklahoma City Thunder is. That was the one thing that was positive for me when I looked at it. And now that I’m here I’m actually really excited and looking forward to getting the regular season started.”
The 2020/21 NBA regular season will get underway on December 22, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign.
With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.
Of course, there are plenty of wild cards to take into account this season. For one, teams are scheduled to play 72 games instead of 82, so if you’re picking a team to win 41 games, you’re not just expecting them to be a .500 club — you’re projecting them to finish 10 games above .500. For each team’s over/under below, we’ve noted the record they’d have to achieve to finish “over” their projection, as a reminder.
It’s also worth noting that the coronavirus pandemic could cause some games to be canceled in 2020/21. We don’t want you to have to take possible cancellations into account when making your picks though, so don’t let that stop you from taking the “over.” If a team has a couple games canceled, we’ll adjust their over/under figure downward, so you’re essentially just projecting that team’s winning percentage.
We’ll turn today to the Northwest…
Denver Nuggets
- 2019/20 record: 46-27
- Over/under for 2020/21: 44.5 wins (45-27)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Nuggets poll.
Utah Jazz
- 2019/20 record: 44-28
- Over/under for 2020/21: 42.5 wins (43-29)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Jazz poll.
Portland Trail Blazers
- 2019/20 record: 35-39
- Over/under for 2020/21: 41.5 wins (42-30)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Trail Blazers poll.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- 2019/20 record: 19-45
- Over/under for 2020/21: 29.5 wins (30-42)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Timberwolves poll.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- 2019/20 record: 44-28
- Over/under for 2020/21: 22.5 wins (23-49)
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Al Horford, George Hill, Trevor Ariza, Justin Jackson, Ty Jerome, T.J. Leaf, Darius Miller, Kenrich Williams, Admiral Schofield, Aleksej Pokusevski, Theo Maledon
- Lost: Chris Paul, Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari, Dennis Schroder, Nerlens Noel, Terrance Ferguson, Abdel Nader, Deonte Burton, Andre Roberson
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Thunder poll.
Previous voting results:
- Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): Over (66.3%)
- Brooklyn Nets (45.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): Over (57.4%)
- Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): Over (54.7%)
- New York Knicks (22.5 wins): Under (59.5%)
While NBA teams can carry 20 players on their rosters for the time being, that limit will shrink by opening night next Tuesday. Before the regular season gets underway, clubs will be required to have no more than 17 players on their roster — 15 on guaranteed contracts and two on two-way deals.
For most teams, that won’t be a problem. Six NBA clubs are currently carrying exactly 15 players with fully guaranteed salaries, while 21 more have between 10 and 14 guaranteed contracts on their books for 2020/21. For most of those 27 clubs, setting their roster will simply be a matter of cutting a few players with non-guaranteed salaries, and won’t require eating any dead money.
However, there are three clubs that currently have more than 15 players on guaranteed contracts on their rosters and will have to either trade or release one or more of those players before opening night. Here’s a look at those three clubs:
Memphis Grizzlies
Let’s start with the simplest situation of the three. At one point, the Grizzlies were carrying 17 players with guaranteed salaries, but they quickly tipped their hand on which two would be the odd man out by not bringing Mario Hezonja and Marko Guduric to training camp.
Hezonja has since been waived. Barring a major surprise, Guduric, who is on an expiring contract, figures to be released in the coming days as well.
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have 16 players with fully guaranteed salaries. However, despite the fact that the team is in the midst of a retooling period, not many of those players look like candidates to be cut. Many of them were either specifically targeted by new GM Troy Weaver this offseason, or – in the case of incumbents like Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, and Sekou Doumbouya – have too much value to be simply released.
While Dzanan Musa and Wayne Ellington may be on the fringe of the roster, Rodney McGruder looks to me like the probable odd man out. There were rumors last month that he might be waived and stretched to allow the Pistons to complete their series of offseason moves, and while that wasn’t necessary at the time, the fact that it was under consideration suggests that he’s probably not part of the team’s long-term plan.
McGruder’s $5MM salary for 2021/22 is non-guaranteed, so Detroit wouldn’t be on the hook for any dead money beyond this season if he’s released.
Oklahoma City Thunder
After having arguably the most eventful offseason of any NBA team, the Thunder are also the trickiest club to figure out heading into the regular season. They have 17 players on guaranteed contracts, so at least two cuts will be required.
Many of Oklahoma City’s newcomers were acquired in trades in which another asset (a draft pick or a player) was clearly the primary motivator for the deal, meaning it’s hard to say exactly what the team thinks of those players.
Kenrich Williams, Admiral Schofield, Darius Miller, and T.J. Leaf all fit this bill, and I’d expect the two cuts to come from that group. Isaiah Roby could also be a release candidate, though he started the team’s first preseason game and played pretty well, with seven points and 11 rebounds. None of Miller, Williams, Schofield, Leaf, or Roby have fully guaranteed salaries beyond 2020/21.
A panel of eight NBA scouts and executives polled by Tim Bontemps of ESPN nearly unanimously view LeBron James as the league’s best player, but voted Luka Doncic as the frontrunner for the MVP award in 2021.
“It’s hard to see Giannis winning three in a row,” a Western Conference scout told ESPN. “And I think there’s more of an opportunity for Luka to kind of put on an MVP show and do more on an individual basis.”
Bontemps also had those scouts and execs weigh in with their thoughts on the 2020 offseason, polling them on which teams had the most success upgrading their roster in either the short or long term — or both. Half the panelists picked the Lakers as the team that had the best offseason, with the Hawks, Thunder, and Sixers also receiving votes. Meanwhile, the Pistons, Rockets, and Bucks got votes for the worst offseason.
Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- Free agent guard Jeremy Lin practiced this weekend with the G League Ignite ahead of their scrimmages on Tuesday and Thursday, league sources tell Adam Zagoria of Forbes (Twitter link). Lin wasn’t among the veteran players previously announced as part of the Ignite, but Zagoria suggests in his full story that the veteran is expected to suit up with the squad on Tuesday.
- Dakota Schmidt of Ridiculous Upside is keeping tabs on which teams are expected to opt in and out of the G League’s proposed Atlanta-area bubble. With the NBA’s opening night just over a week away, it seems like a formal update on the plans for the NBAGL should be right around the corner.
- After making a clerical error that cost client Anthony Carter approximately $3MM in 2003, agent Bill Duffy vowed to repay Carter in full and has made good on that promise, making the last of his payments to Carter this year, as Sopan Deb writes in an interesting story for The New York Times.
- Thunder rookie Aleksej Pokusevski is drawing from his previous experience in Greece to help him transition to the NBA, Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman writes. Pokusevski, a seven-footer, was drafted No. 17 overall last month at just 18 years old. “It’s a bigger level, but it’s pretty [much] the same,” Pokusevski said of his situation. “Here I’m alone by myself right now, but I have experience about that. Listen to everyone. Listen, listen, listen and just learn, and everything’s going to be OK.”
The Spurs signed guard Khyri Thomas to an Exhibit 10 contract this weekend, waiving the 24-year-old shortly thereafter, Jeff Garcia of News 4 San Antonio tweets.
Thomas is expected to play with the team’s G League affiliate in the proposed bubble next month. The Thunder were among those to express interest in the free agent guard before he signed with the Spurs, Garcia adds.
Thomas, the No. 38 pick back in 2018, has spent the past two seasons with the Pistons. He appeared in a total of 34 games, struggling with his shooting and getting traded to Atlanta last month. The Hawks then waived the Creighton product upon acquiring him.
This move marks the second of its kind in recent days for San Antonio, who also signed and waived Kylor Kelley on Friday, sources told Hoops Rumors. Both players were inked to Exhibit 10 deals, which enables the pair to receive a bonus of up to $50K if they remain on the team’s G League affiliate for at least 60 days.
- Thunder rookie guard Theo Maledon had a sparkling preseason debut for Oklahoma City, per Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. The 6’5″ guard, drafted with the No. 34 pick this year, scored 20 points on 7-of-14 shooting and pulled down five rebounds in a 121-108 victory over the Spurs.
- Thunder second-round rookie selection Théo Maledon has signed a four-year, $7.8MM contract, Bobby Marks of ESPN tweets. Maledon will earn a $2MM guaranteed salary in each of the first two years of his new deal, according to Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). Smith goes on to note that each of the final two seasons of Maledon’s deal – which comes out of OKC’s mid-level exception – are non-guaranteed, and that the Thunder will have a team option for the fourth year.
- Bobby Marks of ESPN (Twitter link) provides some additional details on the Al Horford/Danny Green trade, reporting that the $2MM sent from the Sixers to the Thunder in the deal will actually convey in 2027, and only if Philadelphia’s first-round pick has been protected in 2025, 2026, and 2027. That money still counts toward the 76ers’ traded cash limit for this season, however.
The Lakers are monitoring Trevor Ariza‘s situation and would have interest in signing him if he becomes a free agent, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic.
For now, Ariza – who is on an expiring contract – remains under contract with the Thunder, though he’s reportedly away from the team for family reasons. According to Charania, Ariza and veteran point guard George Hill, who is also drawing some interest around the league, are expected to open the regular season as members of the Thunder.
Oklahoma City entered full rebuilding mode this offseason and Ariza and Hill landed with the team in bigger trades that were more about other assets (draft picks). However, it makes sense for the Thunder to retain Ariza and Hill – along with fellow veteran Al Horford – rather than simply cutting them, since the club may be able to move them for an asset or two later in 2020/21.
While Horford’s contract has negative value, Ariza and Hill are earning mid-level type money and neither has a fully guaranteed salary beyond this season, so they could make good trade candidates.
Adding another veteran three-and-D wing would help fortify the Lakers’ depth chart, but they aren’t in position to trade for Ariza’s $12.8MM expiring salary. The defending champions will only be in position to add Ariza if the Thunder can’t find a taker for the 35-year-old forward and decide to release him, perhaps with a buyout agreement.
The Lakers are right up against a hard cap and figure to start the season with just 14 players, but Quinn Cook‘s contract isn’t fully guaranteed and the team should be able to add a 15th man later in the season on a prorated veteran’s minimum contract.