- The Thunder‘s 2020/21 starting lineup remains fluid right now, coach Mark Daigneault said, as relayed by Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman (Twitter link). Oklahoma City has a revamped roster this season, with players such as Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams and Dennis Schroder no longer with the franchise. Daigneault is also in his first season and is the second-youngest head coach in the league. He said the team’s starting group would likely include George Hill, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley and Al Horford, but that nothing was set in stone.
Nearly every NBA team currently has a roster in compliance with regular season limits — no more than 15 players on standard contracts and two on two-way deals.
However, there are still a couple teams that will need to make at least one cut before Monday’s regular season roster deadline: Oklahoma City and Sacramento.
The Thunder are currently carrying 15 players on fully guaranteed contracts and one – Frank Jackson – on a partially guaranteed deal. Jackson appears likely to make the team, which means one of those players with a guaranteed salary will presumably be the final victim of the roster crunch.
While we don’t know for sure which player will be the odd man out, Kenrich Williams and Darius Miller appear to have the most tenuous holds on their roster spots. They came over from New Orleans in the Steven Adams deal and looked more like salary-matching pieces than players the Thunder were specifically targeting.
As for the Kings, they have 14 players on guaranteed contracts, one (Chimezie Metu) on a partially guaranteed contract, and one (Glenn Robinson III) on a non-guaranteed deal. Reporting on Saturday indicated that Robinson is expected to make the 15-man roster — that would make Metu the most obvious odd man out, though Sacramento may decide to cut Justin James or another player with a guaranteed salary.
If they do waive Metu, the Kings could theoretically bring him back on a two-way deal, since his partial guarantee doesn’t exceed $50K. He’d have to clear waivers first though.
As we explained on Saturday, while most teams completed their roster moves early, the Thunder and Kings can afford to take an extra day or two to consider their options without any financial ramifications, since they won’t be cutting a player who has a fully non-guaranteed contract.
While Oklahoma City and Sacramento are the only teams that still have to make moves today or tomorrow, we’ll likely see a little more roster shuffling before Monday’s deadline. Players who have been cut by one team might appeal to another club that has an open roster spot or an expendable 15th man.
Additionally, five teams still have one open two-way contract slot and may look to fill those openings before the season begins. Those clubs are the Pistons, Warriors, Suns, Trail Blazers, and Kings, as our tracker shows.
DECEMBER 19: The Thunder signed and waived Randle today, according to RealGM’s transactions log.
DECEMBER 2: The Thunder have reached an agreement to sign free agent guard Chasson Randle, league sources tell Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). Terms of the deal haven’t been reported, but a training camp contract seems likely.
Randle, who made his NBA debut in 2017, has appeared in 78 total games since then for the Sixers, Knicks, Wizards, and Warriors, averaging 5.3 PPG and 1.7 APG in 13.9 minutes per contest. He was on a 10-day contract with Golden State in March when the season was suspended.
The Thunder have had perhaps the most eventful offseason in the NBA in terms of roster moves, and a handful of those reported transactions still aren’t complete. For now, the team has 19 players on its roster, which would seemingly leave a single opening for Randle. However, reported agreements with Frank Jackson, Omer Yurtseven, Moses Brown, and Josh Hall will also need to be finalized at some point too.
NBA teams have until Monday night to officially set their rosters for the 2020/21 regular season. However, a majority of NBA teams will likely have their rosters ready to go on Saturday, with more roster cuts expected today than on Sunday or Monday.
Why is that? Well, releasing a player today will allow him to clear waivers on Monday, before the regular season gets underway.
Players who are cut during the season are also paid for each day they spend on waivers, so a player who hits waivers on Sunday and doesn’t clear until the first day of the season on Tuesday would technically earn one day’s worth of pay, even if his salary isn’t guaranteed. A player waived on Monday would spend two regular season days on waivers.
For players with partial or full guarantees, spending the first day or two of the regular season on waivers doesn’t really matter — they’re getting their full 2020/21 salary no matter when they’re released. But if a team waits until Monday to cut a player with a non-guaranteed salary, that team will be on the hook for two days’ worth of dead money for the player.
Two days’ worth of dead money won’t exactly break the bank — it shouldn’t be more than about $22K for a minimum-salary player. But most teams already know which players are in and which are out, so there’s no need to take the decision down to the wire on Monday. They’ll make those cuts today and will avoid adding extra cap charges to their books for ’20/21. Even that small amount of savings could make a difference for teams who are right around the tax line or up against a hard cap.
While many teams will make their cuts today, clubs like the Pistons and Thunder can afford to wait an extra day or two, since they’ll each be waiving a player who has a full or partial guarantee. Waiting until Sunday or Monday to make that move won’t affect their cap outlook at all.
[RELATED: 2020/21 NBA Roster Counts]
Meanwhile, it’s worth keeping an eye on a team like the Knicks, who have 15 players on guaranteed contracts but might want to retain veteran forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, whose deal is non-guaranteed. If New York hangs onto Kidd-Gilchrist and doesn’t trim its roster to 15 players on standard deals today, that’ll signal that the team likely plans to waive a player with a guaranteed salary by Monday.
The Thunder have made a pair of roster cuts, announcing in a press release that they’ve waived forwards T.J. Leaf and Admiral Schofield.
Leaf and Schofield were acquired by Oklahoma City in offseason trades. The Thunder took on Schofield’s contract as part of a deal that saw them move up from No. 53 to No. 37 in this year’s draft to select Vit Krejci. The club received Leaf and a future second-round pick in a deal for Jalen Lecque, who is on a cheaper contract.
The fact that neither Leaf nor Schofield made the Thunder’s regular season roster suggests those two trades were motivated by the opportunities to land Krejci and a future second-rounder.
Leaf, the 18th overall pick in the 2017 draft, failed to carve out a role as a regular, reliable rotation player during three seasons in Indiana. The former UCLA standout averaged just 3.0 PPG and 2.5 RPG in 28 games (7.9 MPG) for the Pacers in 2019/20.
Schofield, meanwhile, spent his rookie season in 2019/20 with the Wizards after being drafted 42nd overall a year ago. He played limited minutes in D.C., averaging 3.0 PPG and 1.4 RPG in 33 games (11.2 MPG).
Both Leaf and Schofield will become unrestricted free agents, assuming they clear waivers. They’ll also be paid their 2020/21 salaries, since they were fully guaranteed. Leaf will earn $4.33MM, while Schofield makes $1.52MM. Schofield will also receive a partial guarantee of $300K on next season’s salary.
As for the Thunder, they now have 15 players on fully guaranteed contracts and Frank Jackson on a partially guaranteed contract. They’ll have to make at least one more cut before the regular season roster deadline on Monday.
The NBA’s general managers liked the Lakers‘ offseason moves and are bullish on the team’s chances to repeat as champions in 2020/21, as John Schuhmann of NBA.com writes in his annual survey of the league’s GMs.
An impressive 81% of the responding general managers picked the Lakers to win the championship in 2021, which is the third-highest percentage any team has received since Schuhmann began conducting his annual GM survey 19 years ago. The Clippers ranked second at 11%, while the Nets and Heat received one vote apiece.
Meanwhile, the Lakers (37%) beat out the Suns (22%) and Thunder (15%) in the voting for best offseason roster moves. The Hawks, Bucks, and Sixers each received two votes, while the Trail Blazers got one too.
Here are a few more of the interesting responses from Schuhmann’s GM survey, which is worth checking out in full:
- The Suns‘ acquisition of Chris Paul (44%) and the Bucks‘ trade for Jrue Holiday (33%) were voted the moves that will have the biggest impact this season. The Clippers‘ signing of Serge Ibaka (15%), the Pelicans‘ deal for Steven Adams (11%), and the Trail Blazers‘ trade for Robert Covington (11%) were the front-runners for the most underrated offseason player acquisition. Gordon Hayward‘s $120MM contract with the Hornets (54%) was voted the most surprising offseason move.
- While NBA GMs view Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (39%) as the favorite to win Rookie of the Year over Warriors big man James Wiseman (29%), Wiseman received the most votes (36%) among this year’s rookies to be the best player in five years, followed by Ball (25%). Kings guard Tyrese Haliburton, meanwhile, was voted the biggest steal in the 2020 draft (43%).
- Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo and Mavericks guard Luka Doncic were the top choices as the player GMs would want to start a franchise with today. They each received 43% of the vote, with Lakers stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James and Pelicans youngster Zion Williamson also picking up votes.
- Speaking of Williamson, he helped the Pelicans receive the nod for the team with the most promising young core (41%). The Grizzlies (22%), Hawks (11%), Celtics (11%), and Nuggets (11%) also got multiple votes.
- Al Horford was traded by Philadelphia just one year into his four-year contract with the club, but the veteran big man is looking forward to making the most of his new role with the Thunder, per Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. “I wasn’t expecting (to be traded),” Horford said. “But I’ve known the type of organization the Oklahoma City Thunder is. That was the one thing that was positive for me when I looked at it. And now that I’m here I’m actually really excited and looking forward to getting the regular season started.”
The 2020/21 NBA regular season will get underway on December 22, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign.
With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites, including Bovada and BetOnline, we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.
Of course, there are plenty of wild cards to take into account this season. For one, teams are scheduled to play 72 games instead of 82, so if you’re picking a team to win 41 games, you’re not just expecting them to be a .500 club — you’re projecting them to finish 10 games above .500. For each team’s over/under below, we’ve noted the record they’d have to achieve to finish “over” their projection, as a reminder.
It’s also worth noting that the coronavirus pandemic could cause some games to be canceled in 2020/21. We don’t want you to have to take possible cancellations into account when making your picks though, so don’t let that stop you from taking the “over.” If a team has a couple games canceled, we’ll adjust their over/under figure downward, so you’re essentially just projecting that team’s winning percentage.
We’ll turn today to the Northwest…
Denver Nuggets
- 2019/20 record: 46-27
- Over/under for 2020/21: 44.5 wins (45-27)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Nuggets poll.
Utah Jazz
- 2019/20 record: 44-28
- Over/under for 2020/21: 42.5 wins (43-29)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Jazz poll.
Portland Trail Blazers
- 2019/20 record: 35-39
- Over/under for 2020/21: 41.5 wins (42-30)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Trail Blazers poll.
Minnesota Timberwolves
- 2019/20 record: 19-45
- Over/under for 2020/21: 29.5 wins (30-42)
- Major offseason moves:
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Timberwolves poll.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- 2019/20 record: 44-28
- Over/under for 2020/21: 22.5 wins (23-49)
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Al Horford, George Hill, Trevor Ariza, Justin Jackson, Ty Jerome, T.J. Leaf, Darius Miller, Kenrich Williams, Admiral Schofield, Aleksej Pokusevski, Theo Maledon
- Lost: Chris Paul, Steven Adams, Danilo Gallinari, Dennis Schroder, Nerlens Noel, Terrance Ferguson, Abdel Nader, Deonte Burton, Andre Roberson
Trade Rumors app users, click here for Thunder poll.
Previous voting results:
- Boston Celtics (45.5 wins): Over (66.3%)
- Brooklyn Nets (45.5 wins): Over (58.6%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (44.5 wins): Over (57.4%)
- Toronto Raptors (42.5 wins): Over (54.7%)
- New York Knicks (22.5 wins): Under (59.5%)
While NBA teams can carry 20 players on their rosters for the time being, that limit will shrink by opening night next Tuesday. Before the regular season gets underway, clubs will be required to have no more than 17 players on their roster — 15 on guaranteed contracts and two on two-way deals.
For most teams, that won’t be a problem. Six NBA clubs are currently carrying exactly 15 players with fully guaranteed salaries, while 21 more have between 10 and 14 guaranteed contracts on their books for 2020/21. For most of those 27 clubs, setting their roster will simply be a matter of cutting a few players with non-guaranteed salaries, and won’t require eating any dead money.
However, there are three clubs that currently have more than 15 players on guaranteed contracts on their rosters and will have to either trade or release one or more of those players before opening night. Here’s a look at those three clubs:
Memphis Grizzlies
Let’s start with the simplest situation of the three. At one point, the Grizzlies were carrying 17 players with guaranteed salaries, but they quickly tipped their hand on which two would be the odd man out by not bringing Mario Hezonja and Marko Guduric to training camp.
Hezonja has since been waived. Barring a major surprise, Guduric, who is on an expiring contract, figures to be released in the coming days as well.
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have 16 players with fully guaranteed salaries. However, despite the fact that the team is in the midst of a retooling period, not many of those players look like candidates to be cut. Many of them were either specifically targeted by new GM Troy Weaver this offseason, or – in the case of incumbents like Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, and Sekou Doumbouya – have too much value to be simply released.
While Dzanan Musa and Wayne Ellington may be on the fringe of the roster, Rodney McGruder looks to me like the probable odd man out. There were rumors last month that he might be waived and stretched to allow the Pistons to complete their series of offseason moves, and while that wasn’t necessary at the time, the fact that it was under consideration suggests that he’s probably not part of the team’s long-term plan.
McGruder’s $5MM salary for 2021/22 is non-guaranteed, so Detroit wouldn’t be on the hook for any dead money beyond this season if he’s released.
Oklahoma City Thunder
After having arguably the most eventful offseason of any NBA team, the Thunder are also the trickiest club to figure out heading into the regular season. They have 17 players on guaranteed contracts, so at least two cuts will be required.
Many of Oklahoma City’s newcomers were acquired in trades in which another asset (a draft pick or a player) was clearly the primary motivator for the deal, meaning it’s hard to say exactly what the team thinks of those players.
Kenrich Williams, Admiral Schofield, Darius Miller, and T.J. Leaf all fit this bill, and I’d expect the two cuts to come from that group. Isaiah Roby could also be a release candidate, though he started the team’s first preseason game and played pretty well, with seven points and 11 rebounds. None of Miller, Williams, Schofield, Leaf, or Roby have fully guaranteed salaries beyond 2020/21.
A panel of eight NBA scouts and executives polled by Tim Bontemps of ESPN nearly unanimously view LeBron James as the league’s best player, but voted Luka Doncic as the frontrunner for the MVP award in 2021.
“It’s hard to see Giannis winning three in a row,” a Western Conference scout told ESPN. “And I think there’s more of an opportunity for Luka to kind of put on an MVP show and do more on an individual basis.”
Bontemps also had those scouts and execs weigh in with their thoughts on the 2020 offseason, polling them on which teams had the most success upgrading their roster in either the short or long term — or both. Half the panelists picked the Lakers as the team that had the best offseason, with the Hawks, Thunder, and Sixers also receiving votes. Meanwhile, the Pistons, Rockets, and Bucks got votes for the worst offseason.
Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- Free agent guard Jeremy Lin practiced this weekend with the G League Ignite ahead of their scrimmages on Tuesday and Thursday, league sources tell Adam Zagoria of Forbes (Twitter link). Lin wasn’t among the veteran players previously announced as part of the Ignite, but Zagoria suggests in his full story that the veteran is expected to suit up with the squad on Tuesday.
- Dakota Schmidt of Ridiculous Upside is keeping tabs on which teams are expected to opt in and out of the G League’s proposed Atlanta-area bubble. With the NBA’s opening night just over a week away, it seems like a formal update on the plans for the NBAGL should be right around the corner.
- After making a clerical error that cost client Anthony Carter approximately $3MM in 2003, agent Bill Duffy vowed to repay Carter in full and has made good on that promise, making the last of his payments to Carter this year, as Sopan Deb writes in an interesting story for The New York Times.