- Some executives around the league believe that the Lakers make sense as a trade partner for the Thunder in a Chris Paul deal, writes Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report. While LeBron James and Paul likely wouldn’t mind teaming up, it would be tricky for the Lakers to pull off a deal — they’d have to package at least six players in order to match Paul’s salary, and there would be other roadblocks to consider, as Dan Feldman of NBC Sports writes.
Hoops Rumors is previewing the 2020 offseason for all 30 NBA teams. We’re looking at the key questions facing each club, as well as the roster decisions they’ll have to make this fall. Today, we’re focusing on the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Salary Cap Outlook
After paying tax penalties for five of the last six seasons, the Thunder don’t project to be above the luxury-tax line in 2020/21. Still, with $101.75MM already committed to nine roster spots (eight guaranteed contracts and a first-round pick), it won’t be easy to create any cap room. Barring a trade that significantly reduces salary, Oklahoma City will likely operate as an over-the-cap team.
In that scenario, the Thunder would have access to the full mid-level exception ($9.26MM) and bi-annual exception ($3.62MM). If the team cuts costs and ends up using cap space, it would lose those exceptions along with a couple sizeable trade exceptions, but would gain access to the room exception ($4.77MM).
Our full salary cap preview for the Thunder can be found right here.
Roster Decisions To Watch
Options:
- Mike Muscala, player option: $2,283,034
- Abdel Nader, team option: $1,752,950
- Note: Salary doesn’t immediately become guaranteed if option is exercised.
- Deonte Burton, team option: $1,663,861
- Note: Salary will become partially guaranteed for $1.1MM if option is exercised.
- Hamidou Diallo, team option: $1,663,861
Non-Guaranteed Contracts:
- None
Two-Way Contracts:
- Kevin Hervey (expiring)
- Note: Hervey has signed with Russia’s Lokomotiv Kuban.
Free Agents:
- Danilo Gallinari (Bird)
- Andre Roberson (Bird)
- Nerlens Noel (Early Bird)
- Devon Hall (N/A)
- Note: Hall won’t have any form of Bird rights because he was signed as a substitute player.
2020 Draft Assets
First Round:
- No. 25 overall pick
Second Round:
- No. 53 overall pick
The Thunder’s first-round pick this year is Denver’s pick, which they acquired last July. Oklahoma City’s own pick (No. 21) was sent to Philadelphia back in 2016. In an odd coincidence, both selections were traded for Jerami Grant.
The second-round pick is the Thunder’s own. Because they technically won a three-way tiebreaker in the first round (which the Sixers benefited from), the Thunder’s second-rounder landed at No. 53 instead of 51 or 52.
Three Key Offseason Questions
1. Is Sam Presti ready to launch a rebuild?
The Thunder finished the 2019/20 season tied for the fourth-best record in the Western Conference (44-28) and pushed the Rockets to seven games in the first round before being eliminated.
The team outperformed expectations this season, but there’s reason to believe that success could be replicated in 2020/21. Chris Paul, Dennis Schröder, and Steven Adams are still under contract. So are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, and Darius Bazley, and they should only improve going forward. Danilo Gallinari could be re-signed without going into tax territory. And with all the future first-round picks Oklahoma City has in hand, adding an impact player in a trade isn’t out of the question either.
However, there are signs the Thunder aren’t planning to go in that direction. The most glaring of those is the team’s inability to come to an agreement with head coach Billy Donovan, who elected to part ways with OKC despite receiving a multiyear contract offer from the club.
Reports at the time of the split – as well as comments from Presti himself – indicated that the Thunder and Donovan might not have been on the same page regarding the direction in the franchise. In other words, Donovan didn’t want to stick around only for the roster to undergo a retooling process, while Presti seems far more prepared to go in that direction.
With Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, and Bazley all locked up for multiple years, the Thunder have a promising young core and won’t require a full teardown. But it wouldn’t be a surprise if Paul, Gallinari, Schröder, and Adams are all gone a year from now.
Gallinari is an unrestricted free agent this fall, so if the Thunder don’t re-sign him, their only hope of getting value in return would be through a sign-and-trade. Schröder and Adams will each be on expiring contracts in 2020/21, but the former will have much more trade value than the latter, whose $27.5MM cap hit will make it tricky find a taker. Paul, who is owed $85MM+ over the next two years, is the most fascinating trade candidate of the bunch — we’ll dig deeper into his situation below.
While I expect the Thunder to explore the trade market for all of those veterans this offseason, I don’t think there’s any urgency for the team to make deals right away. That’s especially true for guys like Paul and Adams. If trade partners aren’t willing to take on their oversized contracts without draft compensation, Oklahoma City can afford to be patient.
Adams will be off the books in 2021 and Paul will be entering the final year of his deal at that point. It’s not as if the Thunder need to clear cap room immediately in order to pursue free agents. Dipping into their cache of future first-round picks just to get off Adams’ or Paul’s contracts a year early would be a misuse of those resources.
In essence, while Presti and the Thunder may be prepared to retool their roster, there’s no need for a full teardown and there’s no rush to clear out the veterans as soon as possible. This rebuild can be a gradual one, and fully bottoming out shouldn’t be necessary.
2. Will Chris Paul be traded this offseason?
Paul is one of the NBA’s most interesting trade candidates this fall. He’s only a year removed from being attached to two first-round picks and two first-round pick swaps in a deal for Russell Westbrook, but his value has increased since then for a few reasons.
For one, Paul had a terrific year in 2019/20, staying healthy all season and averaging 17.6 PPG, 6.7 APG, and 5.0 RPG with a .489 FG% in 70 games (31.5 MPG), earning his first All-Star nod since 2016. Teams with interest in acquiring CP3 will recognize that he’s still an injury risk, but the fact that he continues to play at such a high level is encouraging — his production is unlikely to fall off a cliff in 2020/21 as long as he stays relatively healthy.
Paul’s oversized contract is also one year closer to ending now. If a team acquires him and doesn’t get the sort of production it hoped for, his cap hits ($41.4MM in ’20/21, $44.2MM in ’21/22) will be onerous in the short term, but won’t ruin the club’s flexibility for years to come.
This year’s week free agent class also helps boost Paul’s appeal. There are two 2020 All-Stars who are free agents this offseason, but both of them – Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram – are highly likely to return to their current teams. Teams looking to add an All-Star caliber impact player may view a trade for Paul as their best bet to do so.
Paul’s fate will ultimately come down to what sort of offers Oklahoma City gets. The Thunder’s ability to extract a first-round pick in a package for CP3 – or willingness to include one themselves – will hinge on what the rest of the return looks like.
For instance, I don’t think there’s any way the Thunder will attach a future first-rounder to Paul if the Sixers want them to take on Tobias Harris‘ or Al Horford‘s long-term contract, or if the Bucks want them to take Eric Bledsoe and other salary filler. In those scenarios, OKC would likely ask its trade partner to include a first-rounder.
On the other hand, if the Thunder’s return includes a promising young player who could become a building block in Oklahoma City, the team would presumably be more willing to surrender a future first-rounder in addition to Paul. It’s more difficult to construct a hypothetical deal along these lines. If the Knicks were willing to include Mitchell Robinson in their offer, they could probably land Paul and draft assets. But I don’t think New York would do that.
Although Paul’s value is difficult to nail down, I don’t see the Thunder viewing him as a salary dump. If they’re going to move him this fall, they’ll want some combination of cap relief, a draft pick, and/or players who can contribute. If the Thunder don’t get any offers that fit that bill, they can afford to hang onto their veteran point guard for the time being, as they did a year ago.
3. Who will the Thunder hire as their head coach?
There haven’t been many updates out of Oklahoma City on the team’s head coaching search since Donovan’s departure more than a month ago. I imagine the Thunder began the process of seeking a replacement at some point since then, so the radio silence is likely by design rather than an indication of inactivity.
Even without any leaks, we can make a few assumptions about the Thunder’s search.
For instance, based on the divide between Donovan and the organization, it’s a good bet that the club will be seeking a coach who’s comfortable with the idea of overseeing a rebuild.
Additionally, given the financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic, I can’t see Oklahoma City paying big money to a head coach if the club doesn’t expect to be contending in the short term.
Those clues point to the Thunder targeting an up-and-coming candidate who may not have any previous head coaching experience. That lack of experience should keep his – or her – price tag in check. Still, the Thunder will want someone who has spent some time on NBA staffs so that they’re not hiring an entirely unknown commodity.
That profile fits with the few names we’ve heard linked to the job. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst initially identified Timberwolves associate head coach David Vanterpool, Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin and Spurs assistant Will Hardy as contenders, while Shams Charania of The Athletic later confirmed OKC’s interest in Hardy and added Thunder assistant Brian Keefe to the list of candidates.
Griffin and Keefe each have more than a decade of experience as NBA assistants under their belts and have worked for at least three teams apiece during that time. Vanterpool began his coaching career as a CSKA Moscow assistant and has worked on the Blazers’ and Wolves’ staffs since returning stateside in 2012. Hardy has only worked for the Spurs, but has made an impressive rise through the ranks since joining the team’s video department in 2011 and is now one of Gregg Popovich‘s top lieutenants.
It’s possible the Thunder’s list of coaching candidates will continue to grow in the coming days or weeks. Based on what we know so far though, it sounds like the club will be targeting a veteran assistant who has proven his bona fides at the NBA level and is ready for a promotion.
Information from Basketball Insiders and ESPN was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
- Spurs assistant Will Hardy and Thunder assistant Brian Keefe are receiving consideration for Oklahoma City’s head coaching vacancy, sources tell The Athletic.
[SOURCE LINK]
The Thunder are one of the few teams still searching for a new head coach. Last month, Billy Donovan and Oklahoma City surprisingly parted ways after he reportedly rejected a two-year contract offer from the Thunder.
With Donovan having moved onto Chicago, Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman explores the idea of Lakers assistant coach Phil Handy as a potential head-coaching candidate for the Thunder. Mussatto notes that the 49-year-old Handy has a championship pedigree, having gone to the NBA Finals six times. He also looked at Handy’s journey, which includes playing professional basketball and getting his start as a player development coach in 2011.
Along with Handy, Mussatto profiled Spurs assistant Will Hardy as a head coaching option for the Thunder.
After winning the NBA Finals in 2020, the Lakers are currently listed by sportsbooks as the odds-on frontrunners to do so again in 2021.
Over at BetOnline.ag, oddsmakers have listed the Lakers as +275 favorites to come out of the Western Conference in 2020/21. That means if you place a $100 bet on the Lakers and they win the West next season, you’ll win $275.
While the Lakers are the current favorites, BetOnline.ag places two other Western Conference teams in roughly the same tier. The Clippers (+375) have the second-best odds to win the conference, while the Warriors (+400) have the third-best odds.
Golden State’s placement is an interesting one. We can safely assume that the Warriors will be much improved in 2020/21 with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson back in their lineup, and they have the resources necessary to make further roster upgrades. Still, the club is coming off a dismal 15-50 season that saw them finish in last place in the NBA. Winning the West in 2021 would represent a historic turnaround.
The rest of the odds to win the West next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:
- Nuggets: +1200
- Rockets: +1200
- Mavericks: +1400
- Trail Blazers: +1800
- Jazz: +2500
- Pelicans: +2500
- Suns: +3300
- Thunder: +4000
- Grizzlies: +5000
- Kings: +12500
- Spurs: +12500
- Timberwolves: +12500
As we acknowledged on Tuesday when we asked you for your thoughts on the Eastern Conference odds for 2020/21, it’s way too early to confidently predict next year’s conference champions. Rosters will undergo significant changes in the coming months in the draft and free agency, and on the trade market.
Still, the anticipated offseason directions for certain teams is baked into BetOnline’s odds. The Thunder would certainly be higher on the above list if the possibility of a rebuild wasn’t hanging over the franchise.
So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the West for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.
Should the Lakers be considered the favorites to come out of the West again in 2021? Are the Warriors or another team being overvalued? Are there other clubs being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the West next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Western Conference in 2020/21!
OCTOBER 14: The Kings have officially issued a press release confirming the new hires and titles detailed below. In addition to his director of basketball operations role, Johnson will also serve as the new general manager for the Stockton Kings, Sacramento’s G League affiliate.
According to the team, Wilcox will assist McNair in front office duties such as “roster construction, strategy and player evaluation,” Jabour will be responsible for overseeing the scouting department, and Johnson will lead Stockton’s front office in addition to contributing to aspects of the Kings’ basketball operations.
“I am excited to have Wes, Phil and Paul join the front office,” McNair said in a statement. “Wes’ background as an executive in the league combined with Phil’s veteran leadership through the scouting ranks and Paul’s proven experience in evaluating talent will be strong additions to the basketball operations group. Their diverse skill sets and unique perspectives will add valuable knowledge and innovative thinking as we focus on executing our vision of building a winning culture in Sacramento.”
OCTOBER 13: Less than a month after being hired, new Kings general manager Monte McNair is making major changes to the team’s front office, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (Twitter link).
The Kings are hiring Wes Wilcox as an assistant general manager, Phil Jabour as vice president of player personnel, and Paul Johnson as director of basketball operations, sources tell Wojnarowski.
Wilcox is the most noteworthy name among Sacramento’s new additions, having previously served as Atlanta’s general manager from 2015-17. He interviewed for the Bulls’ top basketball operations job and was a finalist for the Kings’ job this summer before the team opted to hire McNair. Prior to his stint in the Hawks’ front office, Wilcox worked for the Heat and Pelicans and spent several years with the Cavaliers.
Jabour arrives in Sacramento after having worked as the Sixers‘ director of scouting last season. He also previously held positions in the scouting departments in Orlando and Houston, overlapping with McNair during his time with the Rockets.
Johnson, meanwhile, was named the assistant GM of the Oklahoma City Blue, the Thunder‘s G League affiliate, just two weeks ago. However, his new director of basketball operations role in Sacramento represents a promotion.
McNair had been expected to fortify the Kings’ front office after the team parted ways with several executives this offseason. In addition to the departure of former GM Vlade Divac, assistant GM Peja Stojakovic resigned and G League GM Anthony McClish was let go. Sacramento is reportedly expected to retain assistant GM and salary cap expert Ken Catanella.
Thunder forward Danilo Gallinari suggests he’s more interested in winning a championship than taking the best offer in free agency, Alessandro Maggi of Sportando relays. Gallinari made the comment during Italy’s “Festival dello Sport.”
“At this time, yes,” he said of prioritizing a title over the most lucrative contract he can find. “I’m not 20 anymore.”
Gallinari, 32, made $22.6MM this past season. He’ll be one of the most sought-after unrestricted free agents on the market.
We have more from the Thunder:
- In April, Oklahoma County prosecutors decided not to charge guard Terrance Ferguson after a rape accusation. However, he now has more legal issues that apparently involve the same case, Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman reports. Ferguson has been sued by an Oklahoma City woman who alleges he and his brother raped her in September 2018. The woman, who previously had a consensual relationship with Ferguson, is seeking in excess of $500K.
- Clippers assistant Rex Kalamian has a strong connection to the Thunder organization, Mussatto writes in a separate story regarding the team’s coaching search. Kalamian was an assistant in Oklahoma City for six seasons, including three years in which he was Scott Brooks’ lead assistant. It’s uncertain whether Kalamian is a candidate for the Thunder’s opening.
- We noted earlier on Monday that the front office has been tight-lipped about the coaching search even though Billy Donovan was let go more than a month ago.
It has been a busy year on the NBA’s head coaching carousel, with four teams having hired new coaches since the hiatus originally began in March and five more clubs still in the market for a new coach.
In the space below, we’re checking in on where those five active searches stand and passing along what we know so far about the most likely candidates for those openings.
While this post is just meant to provide a snapshot of where things stand as of October 12, you can continue to follow the NBA’s coaching carousel in the coming weeks via our tracker.
Let’s dive in…
Houston Rockets
We just passed along an update on the Rockets’ search earlier today. It sounds like the team’s interview process currently includes seven candidates, several of whom have already spoken to the team: Tyronn Lue, Jeff Van Gundy, Kenny Atkinson, Stephen Silas, Wes Unseld Jr., David Vanterpool, and John Lucas.
Although assistant coaches Sam Cassell and Chris Finch have also been linked to the job, it doesn’t sound as if they’ve interviewed for it. For now, the seven candidates listed above appear to make up Houston’s pool of contenders, though it’s possible the team eventually casts a wider net.
Lue and Van Gundy were two of the first candidates connected to the position even before Mike D’Antoni parted ways with the team, and general manager Daryl Morey was reportedly interested in JVG a few years ago, when the Rockets ultimately went with D’Antoni. I’d probably view Lue and Van Gundy as the favorites, but if salary becomes an issue at all, perhaps the club will instead opt for a potential first-timer such as Silas, Unseld, or Vanterpool.
Indiana Pacers
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst previously reported that the Pacers had talked to over 20 candidates about their head coaching job. It’s not clear if all 20+ of those candidates had formal interviews with Indiana or if some of those conversations were more casual in nature, but it’s clear the team is being thorough as it seeks a replacement for Nate McMillan.
Based on a report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski earlier this month, it sounds as if the Pacers have gotten serious about the interview process within the last two weeks. Dave Joerger and Darvin Ham were reportedly among the candidates to emerge during that time, though it’s unclear how aggressive Indiana has been in narrowing down its list of finalists. Joerger and Ham may have plenty of company in that group of “finalists.”
Chris Finch and Chauncey Billups are reportedly among the other candidates to meet with the Pacers in the last couple weeks, and Scott Agness of VigilantSports.com tweeted on Sunday night that the team will have an opportunity to meet with Heat assistants Dan Craig and Chris Quinn now that the Finals are over. The full list of candidates linked to the Pacers’ job can be found within our tracker.
Los Angeles Clippers
There hasn’t been a ton of chatter about the Clippers’ opening since Doc Rivers‘ surprising departure two weeks ago. His lead assistant, Tyronn Lue, was identified as the early frontrunner, but those reports came with the caveat that the Clippers do intend to conduct a full-fledged search.
Jeff Van Gundy, Mike Brown, Darvin Ham, and Wes Unseld Jr. have been mentioned as possible candidates for L.A. With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George only a year away from free agency and the Clippers in championship-or-bust mode, the club will spare no expense on its new head coach, so it will be fascinating to see which direction Steve Ballmer and Lawrence Frank will go.
Frank is coming off an Executive of the Year win and hasn’t had a chance to pick his own head coach yet during his tenure with the Clippers (Rivers’ stint predated Frank’s arrival in L.A.). In theory, he should have some leeway to take a risk and go off the board with an unconventional Steve Nash-esque hire if he feels confident that’s the best path to take. But with such lofty expectations facing the Clippers in 2020/21, Frank will want to be absolutely sure he gets this hire right.
New Orleans Pelicans
Back when the Pelicans dismissed Alvin Gentry in August, one team (the Knicks) had already completed a coaching search and only one other (the Bulls) had a search in progress. Since then, the Bulls have finalized a hire, six more teams have parted ways with their head coaches, and two of those six teams (Brooklyn and Philadelphia) have made new hires of their own.
In other words, the Pelicans appear very willing to take their time with this process.
The lack of reports about the New Orleans job is somewhat surprising. Jason Kidd, Kenny Atkinson, and Jacque Vaughn were cited as possible candidates around the time of Gentry’s firing, but there haven’t been any real updates on them in recent weeks. Mike D’Antoni was said to be a dark-horse candidate before he left Houston, and that rumor popped up again when the Rockets parted ways with him, but it’s been quiet on that front as of late.
There are two scenarios I find most plausible here. One is that Tyronn Lue, who worked under Pelicans executive VP of basketball operations David Griffin in Cleveland, is New Orleans’ top choice and the team is waiting for him to go through the process with the Rockets and Clippers and make a decision.
The other viable scenario? Maybe the Pelicans are just playing things very close to the vest as they consider their options and will surprise us at some point with their decision.
Oklahoma City Thunder
If the silence around the Pelicans’ coaching job has been loud, the silence surrounding the Thunder’s vacancy has been deafening.
It has now been over a month since Oklahoma City and Donovan parted ways, and we’ve essentially heard nothing concrete since then about potential replacements. ESPN’s Brian Windhorst did name David Vanterpool, Adrian Griffin, and Will Hardy as possible candidates at one point, but that sounded like it could’ve just as easily been informed speculation rather than anything solid.
Given the reported motivation for Donovan’s departure, it seems like a safe bet that the Thunder will be looking to hire an up-and-coming coach who doesn’t mind enduring a rebuild and who can grow and develop along with the team’s young core. Given the lack of info coming out of Oklahoma City on the search so far, it’s unclear if the team is seriously clamping down on any leaks or if the search process just hasn’t gotten serious yet.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
- It’s unclear if former Sixers coach Brett Brown is a candidate for the Thunder’s opening but there is a strong connection to the front office, Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman notes. Brown worked with GM Sam Presti in the Spurs organization from 2002-07.
- Timberwolves associate head coach David Vanterpool ranks among the top candidates for the head job with the Thunder. Joe Mussatto of the Oklahoman runs through Vanterpool’s resume and apparent coaching style. “I have different philosophies when it comes to schematics and how you want to approach a situation,” Vanterpool said in a May conversation with the NBA Coaches Association.