- The Thunder have to decide by September 1st whether to fully guarantee Abdel Nader‘s salary for next season, Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders tweets. Nader will receive $450K of his $1,378,242 salary if he’s not retained. If Nader sticks, the Thunder will have 15 players on guaranteed contracts along with both two-way slots filled. It would be a surprise if the Thunder let Nader go, since they traded with the Celtics for the swingman last month.
NBA teams have now completed the brunt of their offseason work, with the draft and free agency practically distant memories. Still, with training camps more than a month away, most clubs around the league have at least one or two outstanding issues they’ve yet to address.
We’re in the midst of looking at all 30 NBA teams, separating them by division and checking in on the key outstanding question that each club still needs to answer before the 2018/19 regular season begins.
After focusing on the Atlantic, Central, and Southeast last week, we’ve moved to the Western Conference this week, starting with the Southwest and Pacific. Today, we’re finishing things off by focusing on the Northwest…
Denver Nuggets
Will the Nuggets sign Trey Lyles to a rookie scale extension?
The trade that sent Lyles to Denver won’t exactly go down as one of the great moves in Nuggets history, considering it cost the team the lottery pick that became Donovan Mitchell in last year’s draft. Still, don’t hold that against Lyles, who enjoyed a breakout year in 2017/18, establishing new career bests in PPG (9.9), RPG (4.8), FG% (.491), and 3PT% (.381) as one of the first players off Denver’s bench.
Lyles is eligible for a rookie scale extension up until October 15 this year, and while role players generally aren’t strong candidates for early deals of that nature, it’s a possibility worth considering for the Nuggets. Lyles is still just 22 years old, and if the club views him as one of its long-term building blocks, it could make sense to lock him up now before his role and his numbers increase further.
Unless they plan to exercise Paul Millsap‘s $30MM team option next summer, the Nuggets should have cap flexibility going forward, meaning a Lyles extension wouldn’t hamstring them. With Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, and Will Barton already secured to long-term deals, the Nuggets will have to decide whether they want Lyles to join that group now, or if they’ll take their chances with him in restricted free agency in 2019.
Minnesota Timberwolves
When will the Timberwolves sign Karl-Anthony Towns to a rookie scale extension, and what will it look like?
In the case of the Timberwolves and Towns, the questions isn’t whether or not an extension is coming — it’s a matter of when it will happen, and what it will look like.
Fourth-year players who get offered maximum-salary rookie scale extensions don’t turn them down, and it sounds like an offer of that caliber is on the table for Towns. There’s no rush to finalize it. Last year, Andrew Wiggins didn’t sign his max deal with the Timberwolves until October 11, just days before the regular season got underway.
There may be a little more room for back-and-forth negotiations with Towns than there was with Wiggins, however. While Wiggins signed a standard 25% maximum-salary extension, Towns would be eligible for a starting salary worth up to 30% of the cap if he earns All-NBA honors again next season. His camp and the Wolves may have to spend some time figuring out whether he’ll receive that full 30% if he qualifies, or if there’s a compromise to be reached between 25-30%.
As our early maximum salary projections for 2019/20 show, the total difference between a five-year, 25% max contract and a five-year, 30% max contract figures to exceed $30MM, so the starting point of Towns’ next deal is an important detail for the two sides to work out.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Will the Thunder release Kyle Singler or attempt to trim additional salary?
The Thunder were able to reduce their team salary and their projected luxury tax bill significantly in the three-way trade that (briefly) sent Carmelo Anthony to Atlanta. Still, Oklahoma City’s total team salary remains just shy of $150MM, creating a potential tax bill of $93MM+. In total, the roster projects to cost nearly $243MM.
Team ownership probably wouldn’t mind cutting costs a little more, and Singler is the most logical release candidate. His $4,996,000 expiring salary can be stretched across three seasons if he’s waived by next Friday. In that scenario, assuming the Thunder leave their 15th roster spot open, stretching Singler would reduce the overall cost of the 2018/19 squad by $20MM, taking into account the reduction in team salary and tax.
Although waiving Singler is the most obvious path to trimming salary, it’s possible the Thunder have another move or two up their sleeves. It’s also possible that they’re satisfied with the cost-cutting moves they’ve already made, and are committed to the current roster. Time will tell.
Portland Trail Blazers
Who will the Trail Blazers sign to their two-way contract slots? Will it matter?
Many teams around the NBA used their new two-way contract slots to great effect last season, relying on those two-way players for significant roles and eventually promoting them to a spot on the 15-man roster. That wasn’t really the case in Portland.
C.J. Wilcox and Wade Baldwin signed two-way deals with the Trail Blazers before the season and barely saw any action all season for the NBA club. Wilcox didn’t play a single minute for the Blazers, while Baldwin appeared in just seven games. All but one of Baldwin’s seven appearances came late in the season after he had been signed to a standard NBA contract.
The Blazers are one of just three NBA teams without a G League affiliate of their own, which is one obstacle in the way of maximizing their two-way contracts. If they need an extra body on a given night, it’s not easy to simply transfer a two-way player from their nearby NBAGL squad to the NBA roster. Last year, for example, Baldwin spent most of his time in the G League with the Texas Legends, whose arena is over 2,000 miles away from the Moda Center in Portland.
Despite the impracticality of shuttling their two-way players back and forth between the NBA and the G League, the Blazers still figure to fill those slots at some point. When they do, it will be interesting to see if they once again favor players with some NBA experience, like Wilcox and Baldwin, rather than developmental prospects that they won’t actually have the opportunity to develop due to their lack of NBAGL affiliate.
Utah Jazz
Do the Jazz need to do… anything before the regular season begins?
It’s fitting that the last of the 30 teams we’ve examined in this series is the one that seemingly has no burning questions to answer before the regular season begins.
The Jazz have their 15-man roster for the regular season virtually set, with Royce O’Neale joining 14 players on guaranteed contracts. They’ve filled their two-way contract slots. They don’t have any extension candidates. They’re not in any trouble from a cap perspective. Their coaching staff and front office is stable. Even their forthcoming rookie scale option decisions for 2019/20 look like simple ones. The Jazz do have one spot on their 20-man offseason roster they could fill, but that’s not exactly a pressing issue.
While there may be some rotation battles to watch during training camp, Utah’s primary focus this fall will be staying healthy — after all, it was Rudy Gobert‘s injury issues that played a significant part in the team’s slow start (19-28) last season. Having finished the regular season on a 29-6 run and won a playoff series, the Jazz will be looking to carry that momentum into the 2018/19 season as they push for a top-three seed in a tough Western Conference.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Paul George says the Lakers were angry that he refused to meet with them before re-signing with the Thunder, but adds that his mind was already made up. Appearing on the Short Story Long podcast, George contends there were hard feelings from team president Magic Johnson and the L.A. organization about his decision.
“I didn’t give Magic [Johnson] a meeting, which I understand,” George said. “But at that point, I knew I wanted to give it another shot [in Oklahoma City]. I didn’t want to prolong it and waste people’s time.”
A native of the Los Angeles area, George had once been considered very likely to join the Lakers when he hit free agency. The reason he was traded to the Thunder last summer is that his agent informed Pacers management that he had no plans to re-sign in Indiana.
However, George enjoyed his experience in OKC, even though the team was ousted from the playoffs in the first round. He was the first big-name free agent to announce his decision this year, making it official shortly after midnight Eastern time on July 1 at a party thrown by teammate Russell Westbrook.
The Thunder gave George a four-year deal worth $137MM with a player option for the final season. He played 79 games in his first season in Oklahoma City, posting a 21.9/5.7/3.3 line.
“Coming down to free agency, I didn’t want to waste any time,” George added. “I wanted to give it another shot. I gave them one year. We played well against the best teams. I wanted to give it a real shot.”
- The Thunder have added Bob Beyer to Billy Donovan‘s coaching staff, according to a team press release. Beyer spent the last four seasons on Stan Van Gundy’s Pistons staff, serving as the associate head coach the past two seasons. His NBA coaching experience dates back to the 2003/04 season as an assistant with the Raptors.
- Thunder forward Jerami Grant anticipates a bigger role during the upcoming season after signing a multi-year contract, as he told Alex Kennedy of HoopsHype in a Q&A session. Grant appeared in 81 games last season, averaging 8.4 PPG and 3.9 RPG in 20.3 MPG. He anticipates even more playing time with the departure of Carmelo Anthony. “I’m definitely excited to be able to play extensive minutes and play important minutes on a contender. Getting a chance to show what you can do while being part of an organization like this, being part of a team like this, it means a lot. They’ve shown a lot of trust in me by giving me this new contract and [and a bigger role].” Grant signed a three-year, $27MM contract to remain with OKC.
One of the co-founders of the BIG3 believes that the league is planning on expanding, Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe writes. Citing demand from players that would like to participate and the league’s own goal of expanding to new cities, Jeff Kwatinetz discussed the possibility when the league was in town over the weekend.
“The idea of trying to figure the exact format for next year is something I think we will decide and wait a couple of weeks,” Kwatinetz said. “The demand is there and we’re not watering down the quality of the basketball. As long as we’re making it more competitive and incredible, then we will do that.”
One hurdle that the two-year-old league may face is managing its broadcasts, as only a few of the league’s games are televised on Fox Sports 1 on any given night. Adding more games would complicate that further.
Kwatinetz spoke about adding high profile NBA veterans to the Big3 as well as potentially cooperating with the league in a formal capacity. At this stage there have been no formal discussions between the two leagues.
There’s more from around the league:
- It’s been ten years since the SuperSonics relocated from the Pacific Northwest to Oklahoma City. Brett Dawson of The Oklahoman wrote about the Thunder franchise’s impact on the city and the impact that the city’s identity has had on the club itself over the past decade.
- Former NBA All-Star Tom Chambers has been charged with assault following an altercation at an Arizona restaurant, Bree Burkitt of The Arizona Republic writes.
- As F5 Season winds down and NBA fans are left waiting for the start of training camp, now is your chance to get caught up on what has has (and what hasn’t) officially happened since July 1. We have a meticulously updated tool that tracks the player contract count for each NBA roster.
Andre Roberson‘s 2017/18 season was cut short because of a ruptured patellar tendon and the Thunder are not rushing the defensive-minded wing back on the court, as Nick Gallo of NBA.com details. Oklahoma City realizes how crucial Roberson will be to their postseason success.
“I’m really excited for him to get back on the floor. I think we all know at this stage how important he is to the team and just what his size and length, and I think just his fiber in general, what it means to the team,” said GM Sam Presti.
Here’s more from the Northwest Division:
- The Roberson-Russell Westbrook–Paul George trio had the fifth-best defensive ranking in the league last season, Gallo notes in the same piece. “There was crazy potential there,” Roberson recalled. “We kind of finally started to figure it out, figured out how to play off of each other, and things were clicking.”
- Despite an ESPN forecast panel that gave the Wolves just a 12 percent chance to keep Jimmy Butler beyond this season, Michael Rand of the Star Tribune is still optimistic that the two sides can find common ground on a long-term deal. Rand also advises readers not to worry too much about the rumors of Butler teaming up with Kyrie Irving on a rival squad.
- The Nuggets are the only team in the Northwest Division that has traded away its own first-round pick, as Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors detailed this week. Denver sent the pick to Brooklyn in the Kenneth Faried deal.
Carmelo Anthony, the newest member of the Rockets, published a letter earlier this week thanking his old team, along with the Thunder fans. As Erik Horne of The Oklahoman details, Anthony said that he wanted to bring a championship to OKC and was “sorry it didn’t work out” while he was there. However, despite only being with the Thunder for one year, Carmelo said he’ll never forget the experience and the support he received from the “incredible” fans in OKC.
After the NBA salary cap increased by nearly 35% for the 2016/17 league year, it has grown at a far more modest rate in two subsequent seasons, increasing from $94.1MM to $99.1MM to $101.9MM. Still, the cap spike in 2016 resulted in a free agent spending spree that is still haunting some teams.
Many of the clubs that currently project to be taxpayers for the 2018/19 season still have an unwieldy contract or two from the summer of 2016 on their books. That list includes Ian Mahinmi for the Wizards, Evan Turner for the Trail Blazers, and Hassan Whiteside and Tyler Johnson for the Heat.
Even this year’s projected taxpayers that spent their money more wisely in 2016 can blame that summer at least in part for their substantial team salaries — clubs like the Warriors and Celtics likely wouldn’t have been able to land stars like Kevin Durant and Al Horford without the cap spike, and commitments to those players are helping push both teams into tax territory today.
In total, nearly one-third of the NBA’s teams could end up over the luxury tax threshold this season. Currently, eight teams have crossed that $123.733MM line, while two more are narrowly below it. Teams have until the end of the 2018/19 regular season to adjust team salary in an effort to get back under the tax line, but most of those clubs will have little leverage if they try to dump salary, so it won’t be easy to cut costs.
Here’s an early look at the teams likely to finish 2018/19 as taxpayers:
Oklahoma City Thunder
Current guaranteed team salary (approximate): $149.58MM
The Thunder have actually reduced their projected tax bill in the last month by trading Carmelo Anthony and his $28MM salary, but this roster will still have a massive price tag attached to it. Because they’ll finish the season having been in the tax in three of the last four years, the Thunder will be subject to the repeater tax, resulting in more punitive penalties. As a result, their tax bill currently projects to be worth a staggering $93.19MM.
Golden State Warriors
Current guaranteed team salary (approximate): $143.64MM
The Warriors will actually get off relatively easy this year, despite a projected tax bill of $51MM+ if Patrick McCaw returns on his qualifying offer. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are still on old contracts that pay them well below their current maximum salaries, and Golden State won’t get hit with the repeater tax until 2019/20. If Thompson and Durant sign lucrative new deals next summer, the Dubs may well face more significant tax penalties in future seasons.
Toronto Raptors
Current guaranteed team salary (approximate): $139.79MM
The Raptors have avoided the tax during their recent run of 50-win seasons, but they’re unlikely to do so again this year. Even if they’re able to dump one unwanted contract, it probably won’t be enough to slip below the tax line. That’s not the end of the world though, as team ownership should be willing to pay a little extra in 2018/19 for what could be a championship-caliber roster. Some money will come off the books in 2019, and much more will be cleared by 2020, so the club likely won’t have to worry about spending the next several years in tax territory.
Washington Wizards
Current guaranteed team salary (approximate): $134.86MM
One of four taxpayers last season, the Wizards came away with little to show for the extra investment in their roster — the club finished eighth in the East and was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. That didn’t dissuade ownership from spending big again this season on a roster that looks pretty similar to last year’s, plus Dwight Howard. Based on their current team salary, the Wizards are on the hook for a projected tax bill of $19MM+.
Houston Rockets
Current guaranteed team salary (approximate): $133.72MM
The Rockets‘ guaranteed team salary currently only accounts for 11 fully guaranteed contracts and one partially guaranteed deal, so that total figures to increase by the time Houston sets its final 14- or 15-man roster. With expensive multiyear deals for James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela and others on the books for 2019/20 as well, it will be interesting to see just how willing new owner Tilman Fertitta is to remain in tax territory for multiple years if the Rockets once again fall short of the NBA Finals in 2018/19.
Portland Trail Blazers
Current guaranteed team salary (approximate): $131.64MM
The Trail Blazers deftly ducked below the tax line at the 2018 trade deadline when they shipped Noah Vonleh‘s expiring contract to Chicago. Barring a fire sale, it will be more difficult to get below that threshold this season — the Blazers would have to shed about $8MM to do so, and there are no big expiring contracts on their books that would make good trade chips.
Miami Heat
Current guaranteed team salary (approximate): $126.98MM
Like the Rockets, the Heat don’t have a full roster yet, so their total guaranteed team salary is based on just 12 players. If they bring back Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem, even on minimum salary contracts, the gap between the Heat’s team salary and the tax line will increase. That will make it trickier to get out of the tax at the trade deadline, though Miami has reportedly explored potential trades this offseason involving some of the team’s highest-paid players.
Boston Celtics
Current guaranteed team salary (approximate): $126.75MM
The Celtics‘ tax bill is currently only projected to be about $5.8MM, which is modest enough that the club won’t do anything drastic to move below the tax line. Still, the front office will be mindful of the cost of the roster in future seasons. With lucrative new contracts for the likes of Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum due before too long, the Celtics could eventually become a perennial taxpayer, so it might be in the club’s best interests to sneak out of the tax in 2018/19 to avoid starting the clock on the repeater tax.
Outside of the eight teams listed above, the Pistons and Grizzlies will be the wariest about their standing in relation to the tax line in 2018/19. Both clubs currently have about $123.25MM in team salary on their books, leaving them less than $500K away from tax territory. Memphis could create some extra breathing room by waiving Andrew Harrison‘s non-guaranteed salary.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
- The Thunder catch a little bit of a scheduling break, Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman points out. Each team plays four conference foes three times while facing every other conference team four times. The Thunder only have to play the two-time defending champion Warriors three times, with the Lakers, Spurs and Grizzlies also in that group. The Grizzlies are the only projected non-playoff contender among that quartet.
There may not be an NBA division more top-heavy than the Atlantic, where the Celtics, Raptors, and Sixers are all projected to win more than 50 games in 2018/19. However, the Atlantic also features the Nets and Knicks, who are widely expected to finish in the lottery.
In terms of top-to-bottom talent, the Northwest has a stronger case to be considered the NBA’s best division. Last season, four Northwest teams made the playoffs and a fifth missed the postseason by a single game. The five clubs finished the regular season separated by just three games, racking up between 46 and 49 wins apiece.
None of those Northwest clubs took a huge step backward this offseason, but there were no massive upgrades either, with many of the most significant roster moves in the division involving re-signing key free agents. As such, oddsmakers once again view the Northwest as a five-team race, with each of those five teams projected to finish above .500.
According to betting site Bodog.eu, the Thunder are consider the very slight favorites to win the Northwest, with an over/under of 49.5 wins for the season. However, the Jazz (49 wins) and Nuggets (47.5) are right behind them, with the Timberwolves (44.5), and Trail Blazers (42.5) within striking distance.
After we asked you on Monday to assess the top of the Atlantic standings for 2018/19, we’re shifting our focus today to the Northwest.
Will the Blazers repeat as division champions? Will the Thunder or Jazz take a step forward and win the Northwest? Or will the Nuggets or Timberwolves go from vying for the No. 8 seed in the West to battling for the division crown?
Vote below in our poll for the 2018/19 Northwest division winner, then head to the comment section to make your case for your pick.
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.