Thunder Rumors

Five Player Options That Look Like Locks To Be Exercised

As we recently detailed when we previewed this summer’s player option decisions, those options have been overwhelmingly declined over the last two offseasons.

Over the last two years, only eight of 53 veterans who held player options on their contracts have actually exercised those options. Half of those eight players (Tim Duncan, Caron Butler, Mo Williams, and Spencer Hawes) haven’t played a single NBA minute since picking up their options, having either retired or been waived. Another one of the eight (Chris Paul) only opted in because it cleared the way for him to be traded to his preferred destination.

However, those opt-outs came at a time when NBA free agent spending was at an all-time high, primarily due to the substantial salary-cap jump in the 2016 offseason. For most players with an opportunity to reach the open market, it made sense to test free agency rather than playing out a contract that had been negotiated when the cap was far lower.

That may not be the case this summer though. The increases in the salary cap have become more modest, with the cap for 2018/19 projected to only be about $2MM higher than this year’s figure. With fewer teams armed with cap room and less money available in free agency, many of the player options for 2018/19 don’t look too bad.

I expect more than five player options to be exercised this offseason, but here are five that look like virtual locks to be picked up:

  1. Carmelo Anthony, Thunder ($27,928,140): Our list starts with a player option that’s technically not a player option. Anthony actually has an early termination option, which essentially gives him the same rights as a player option would — he’ll simply have to waive his ETO in order to opt in and finish out his current contract. Given Anthony’s underwhelming season in Oklahoma City, which saw him set new career lows in PPG (16.2) and FG% (.404), opting in looks like an easy call. If the Thunder lose in the first round and Paul George departs in free agency, it will be interesting to see how enthusiastic Anthony is about remaining in OKC. This situation reminds me a little of Dwyane Wade‘s in Chicago a year ago, when Wade exercised his $23MM player option, then surrendered a big chunk of it as part of a buyout agreement.
  2. Wesley Matthews, Mavericks ($18,622,514): Matthews has already indicated he plans to opt in, so it’s probably cheating a little to include him here. Still, his case is an interesting one. Matthews is still capable of being a useful wing who can make three-point shots — that could make him more valuable to a contender than to the rebuilding team, and an $18MM+ expiring salary would also look appealing to a club looking to clear cap room for 2019. If and when Matthews officially picks up the option, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Mavs explore the trade market for him, likely expressing a willingness to take on longer-term money.
  3. Iman Shumpert, Kings ($11,011,234): Shumpert’s player option decision figures to hinge on money rather than destination. After an injury-plagued season in which he played in just 14 games, the veteran swingman won’t come close to matching his $11MM option salary, so it’s the right move to opt in and then see what happens. The rebuilding Kings, who held onto vets like Zach Randolph and Vince Carter for the entire 2017/18 season, could try the same approach with Shumpert next year, but I’d expect him to become a buyout candidate sooner or later — assuming he’s not traded first.
  4. Darrell Arthur, Nuggets ($7,464,912): In Denver, Wilson Chandler‘s player option decision will be a tougher one than Arthur’s, which looks like a mere formality. Ongoing knee issues – as well as a deep Nuggets roster – resulted in Arthur appearing in just 19 games and playing 141 total minutes in 2017/18. If he were to opt out, he’d almost certainly be looking at a minimum-salary offer, so picking up his option makes sense.
  5. Ron Baker, Knicks ($4,544,400): It’s hard to call a contract worth less than $10MM in total a disastrous signing, but the Knicks’ decision to commit their entire room exception to Baker last offseason on a two-year deal was immediately panned, and it doesn’t look any better now. Like other players on this list, Baker didn’t play a whole lot in 2017/18 due to injuries – and to not having a permanent spot in the rotation – which would limit his value significantly if he were to hit free agency. He’s recovering from shoulder surgery now, making his option decision an easy one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Community Shootaround: Game 6 Predictions

After the Pelicans, Rockets, Warriors, and Sixers won their respective opening-round series in either four or five games, the first Game 6 of this year’s postseason took place on Thursday night, with the Bucks holding home court against the Celtics to push their series to a Game 7.

On Friday night, three more series will play a Game 6, so we want to hear your thoughts and predictions on tonight’s matchups.

In the East, the Cavaliers will look to close out the Pacers in Indiana to advance to the second round. The series has been a back-and-forth affair, featuring several close games and each team picking up a win in the other club’s building. Cleveland’s supporting cast has been somewhat underwhelming and George Hill remains questionable with a back injury, but if LeBron James keeps playing like he did in Game 5 (44 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists), it might not matter.

It’ll be interesting to see if Victor Oladipo can bounce back from an underwhelming Game 5. Since he scored 32 points in the series opener, Oladipo has seen his scoring output decline in each game, all the way down to 12 points in Game 5. His field-goal percentage has dipped in every game too, culminating in a 2-for-15 showing on Wednesday.

Elsewhere in the East, the Wizards will host the Raptors and look to avoid elimination in D.C. The home team has won every game in this series, so the fact that this one takes place in Washington bodes well for a Game 7, but this is another matchup that has been fairly even throughout the first round. Otto Porter is questionable to play in this game for the Wizards, while Fred VanVleet remains questionable for Toronto.

A Game 6 win would be a good sign for the Raptors, who have yet to pick up a statement victory in these playoffs. As long as the Raps keep winning at home, they could theoretically advance to the NBA Finals, since they’re the East’s No. 1 seed, but a solid road win would make them look like a much more formidable opponent heading into round two.

Over in the West, the road team is in a much tougher spot than the Cavs or Raptors — the Thunder trail 3-2 in their series with the Jazz, meaning they’ll need to win tonight in Utah just to keep their season alive. Oklahoma City looked all but dead in the third quarter of Game 5, but stormed back from a 25-point deficit behind huge games from Russell Westbrook and Paul George.

The Westbrook/George duo combined for 79 points in Game 5, with OKC’s next-highest scorer (Carmelo Anthony) scoring just seven. That’s a storyline worth watching in Game 6 — the Thunder probably can’t keep relying solely on the heroics of Westbrook and George, so someone else will need to step up. It’s not clear if Anthony will be that player, as the club looked better when he wasn’t on the court in Game 5.

What do you think? How will tonight’s games play out? Will the three teams in the driver’s seat be able to take care of business and advance to the next round, or can we look forward to another Game 7 or two on Sunday?

Russell Westbrook Not Suspended For Game 5

Thunder guard Russell Westbrook will be available for tonight’s Game 5 after being fined but not suspended for going onto the court during an altercation, writes Erik Horne of The Oklahoman. The league levied a $10K fine against Westbrook, who became involved in a fourth quarter shoving match during Game 4. Players are typically suspended for leaving the bench area during a fight, but Westbrook was given a break because he was about to check into the game when it happened.

  • Paul George‘s upcoming free agency becomes more interesting with every Thunder loss, notes Andrew Sharp of Sports Illustrated. George said earlier this season that he wouldn’t make a decision based on the playoffs, but obviously a first-round exit won’t help Oklahoma City’s chances of keeping him. Sharp acknowledges George’s talent, but questions whether he can be a team leader and speculates that things may not turn out well for the Lakers if they sign him but not LeBron James.

Pacific Rumors: Randle, Bradley, Looney, Kokoskov

Lakers power forward Julius Randle could wind up in his hometown of Dallas next season, Frank Urbina of Hoops Hype speculates. Randle would be a nice fit alongside guard Dennis Smith Jr. and the Mavericks have plenty of cap space to sign him. He played very well against them this season, averaging 21.8 PPG, 11.5 RPG and 5.6 APG on 66% shooting, Urbina notes. Randle would also slot in well with the Suns and Pacers, Urbina adds, though it’s more likely he winds up staying with the Lakers. Randle will be a restricted free agent if, as expected, the Lakers extend a $5.564MM qualifying offer by the June 29th deadline.

Also around the Pacific Division:

  • Clippers shooting guard Avery Bradley could wind up with the Sixers if Philadelphia loses J.J. Redick in free agency, Urbina writes in a separate piece. Bradley’s spot-up shooting and man-to-man defense would make him a good fit with their young core, Urbina continues. The Spurs and Thunder, who were involved in trade rumors for Bradley this winter, could be potential landing spots. The Pelicans might also be interested in upgrading the shooting guard spot, which would allow them to move Jrue Holiday back to the point if they lose free agent Rajon Rondo, Urbina adds.
  • Big man Kevon Looney has emerged as a key player for the Warriors and that won’t change throughout the postseason, according to Dieter Kurtenbach of the San Jose Mercury News. The Warriors’ first-round pick in 2015 has battled injuries during his first two seasons. Now healthy, Looney gives the Warriors another quality defender with length who guard all five positions, Kurtenbach adds. Looney could be plying his trade somewhere else next season, as he’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Warriors declined their team option on him last October.
  • Igor Kokoskov has Jared Dudley‘s endorsement as the Suns search for a new head coach, Scott Bordow of the Arizona Republic reports. Kokoskov, 46, was instrumental in drawing up plays when Lindsey Hunter was Phoenix’s interim coach in 2013, according to Dudley. Kokoskov, who has interviewed for the Suns job, is currently a Jazz assistant. “It’s not like Igor is young,” Dudley said. “He’s had plenty of experience. It’s like Brett Brown in Philadelphia and Mike Budenholzer in Atlanta. They put the right staff around them. That’s the critical part. I think he’s shown he deserves the opportunity.”

Northwest Notes: Nuggets, G League, Sefolosha

After missing the playoffs by one game for the second consecutive season, Nuggets head coach Michael Malone and president of basketball operations Tim Connelly are tired of going home after the regular season ends. Yet, as reported by Gina Mizell of The Denver Post, there’s reason for optimism, with Connelly declaring that “this is the most confident I’ve felt in our core group since I’ve been here.”

The first order of business for the Nuggets is locking up budding superstar Nikola Jokic to a long-term contract. Jokic actually has a team option worth $1.6MM for next season, but because he was a second-round pick and has been in the league for three or fewer seasons, he becomes a restricted free agent if Denver declines his option, allowing the Nuggets to match any offer from another team.

Both of the Nuggets other young potential stars – Jamal Murray and Gary Harris – are already locked in for next season, meaning the next order of business is re-signing sixth man Will Barton. “We’re hopeful we can get something done,” Connelly said. “(Barton is) our guy. We love him. I think if he’s back in a Denver jersey, it’s good for both him and the team.”

Barton added, “We’re building something real special here.  I love playing with Jok and Jamal and Gary. The guys we have in the locker room, I like being around. The coaching staff has really come a long way with trusting me and me trusting them. Just the whole (Nuggets) organization, I feel like we’re headed in the right direction.”

There’s more out of the Northwest Division:

  • In more after-season content from the Nuggets, Christopher Dempsey of Nuggets.com relays some of Connelly’s positive thoughts on the Nuggets’ season. “Certainly, when you’re on the outside, looking-in you have to address some needs,” Connelly said. “I think there will be some pretty interesting financial decisions we’ll make this offseason. But standing in front of (the media) now, I finally can say with full confidence that we have a core that can be really good for a long time. They all want to be here, and they are all about the right things.”
  • The Trail Blazers are closing in on setting up a G League team in Beaverton, OR, reports Adam Johnson of Two Ways and 10 Days. There have been suggestions of Seattle as a prime location for a Portland G League team, but it seems the Blazers are looking to bring a potential afilliate closer to home. Nike, the NBA’s new uniform supplier, is headquartered in the Portland suburb.
  • Jazz swingman Thabo Sefolosha may be out of the lineup with injury, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t playing a role against his former team, the Thunder, reports Eric Woodyard of the Deseret News. “I try to just help when I see something like offensively, defensively, something that we can do a little differently,” Sefolosha said. “Just whatever I see, I like to communicate, whether it’s with the coaches or with the players, so I try to stay involved as much as I can.”

Paul George Dealing With Hip Contusion

Celtics forward Gordon Hayward is ready for the next step in his rehab process, writes Abby Chin of NBC Sports Boston.

President of basketball operations Danny Ainge announced this morning that Hayward is going to Indianapolis to work with a top specialist in running mechanics. The goal of the visit is to help him improve his form as he continues to recover from a fractured left ankle. The Celtics and Hayward both have prior experience with the specialist.

Ainge added that Hayward continues to make encouraging progress from the brutal opening-night injury that wiped out his first season in Boston. Hayward was shown jogging on the court with Celtics trainer Jason Smeathers in a recent video.

There’s more injury-related news to pass along:

  • Sixers coach Brett Brown told reporters a “unified effort” is being conducted to determine when Joel Embiid can return to the court, tweets Ian Begley of ESPN. The team, Embiid’s representatives and the doctor who performed his facial surgery are working together to monitor his progress. Begley adds that Embiid, who had the operation March 31, still hasn’t been medically cleared for full contact and doesn’t have a target date to start playing again. Embiid will go through a scripted practice today, his first since suffering a fracture of the orbital bone, relays Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). Embiid wrote on Instagram Monday that he is “sick and tired of being babied” regarding the injury.
  • Paul George was held out of contact in today’s practice because of a right hip contusion, according to Tony Jones of The Salt Lake Tribune (Twitter link). George will receive further evaluation after Wednesday’s shootaround.
  • Rockets forward Ryan Anderson is on the practice court today for the first time since spraining his ankle, tweets Jerry Zgoda of The Star-Tribune. Anderson, who missed the final four games of the regular season and the playoff opener against the Timberwolves, said the ankle remains swollen and he’ll see how it responds before deciding if he can play tomorrow. “It’s one more shooter that you would have on the floor,” coach Mike D’Antoni said to Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle about getting Anderson back. “If a couple guys aren’t going well, we have another guy to go to. It gives us a lot better chance.”
  • Raptors guard Fred VanVleet has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight’s game with the Wizards, reports Jared Greenburg of NBA TV (Twitter link). VanVleet has been experiencing soreness in his shoulder since a collision in the team’s final regular season game, but X-rays taken this week were negative.

Community Shootaround: Possible First-Round Upsets

Game 1 is in the books for all eight of the NBA’s first-round playoff matchups, and several of those games set up potentially fascinating series. Six of the eight higher seeds held their home-court advantage in the first game, but some of those favorites looked a little shaky in their victories, leading to plenty of speculation about first-round upsets.

We’ll start with the weekend’s biggest upset, which took place in Cleveland, where the Pacers dismantled LeBron James and the Cavaliers in Game 1. It won’t be a surprise if the Cavs eventually pull out this series, but their 98-80 loss on Sunday was something we haven’t seen since James returned to Cleveland in 2014. In their last three first-round series, the Cavs have swept the Celtics, Pistons, and – one year ago – the Pacers.

Of course, these Pacers are a much different team than the squad swept out of the postseason a year ago. Victor Oladipo looked like the best player on the floor on Sunday, and players like Myles Turner, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Lance Stephenson looked great in supporting roles. This Pacers team was overlooked and underappreciated all season, and appear poised to give the Cavs all they can handle in round one.

The other Game 1 upset occurred in Portland, where the Pelicans edged out a two-point win over the Trail Blazers. Anthony Davis (35 points, 14 rebounds) was the best player on the court in that game, but Jrue Holiday‘s impact shouldn’t be understated. Besides posting 21 points and seven assists, Holiday also locked up Damian Lillard on the other end of the court — Lillard made just six of 23 shots.

The Pelicans don’t have a whole lot of standout talent behind Davis and Holiday, but Nikola Mirotic (16 points, 11 rebounds) stepped up as a reliable third option on Saturday. If he – or another Pelican – can continue to support Davis and Holiday throughout the series, New Orleans should have a chance.

Elsewhere, the Raptors, Rockets, and Thunder had to battle to the end to hold off the Wizards, Timberwolves, and Jazz, respectively, but came away with Game 1 victories. The Bucks pushed the Celtics to overtime before losing Eric Bledsoe and Giannis Antetokounmpo to foul problems and ultimately losing the game. None of those four favorites is a mortal lock to advance, though Houston is probably close.

The Warriors and Sixers took care of business with comfortable wins over the Spurs and Heat, respectively.

What do you think? Will we see an upset – or multiple upsets – in the first round of the postseason? Which lower-seeded teams do you think look like the best bets to advance to round two?

Head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

New Role For Carmelo Anthony In Return To Playoffs

  • Carmelo Anthony is preparing for his first playoff appearance in five years, but he’s headed there in a much different role, writes Brett Dawson of The Oklahoman. Anthony was an MVP candidate when the Knicks last reached the postseason in 2013. Now he’s a complementary player after an offseason trade to the Thunder. “My approach is not any different,” he said. “My situation is different. My team is different.”

Status of Abrines, Brewer Remains Uncertain For Opener

  • The status of two injured Thunder players remains in question heading into Sunday’s playoff opener, according to Erik Horne of The Oklahoman. Alex Abrines, who has been in concussion protocol since Monday, participated in practice today but didn’t do any drills that involved contact. Corey Brewer, who suffered a right knee sprain Wednesday, went through some contact drills after missing Thursday’s practice. “We’ll see how they responded from it” coach Billy Donovan said. “They both seemed fine with what they were doing. Whether or not they’ll be available tomorrow, we’ll probably find that out in the morning.”

2018 NBA Draft Order Tiebreaker Results

After a series of tiebreakers were conducted Friday night, the lottery odds for the NBA Draft have been finalized. Similarly, the draft order for teams outside of the lottery has been decided as well.

While a total of four two-way ties and one four-way tie were all broken by coin toss, the biggest winner of the night would have to be the Mavs who will now officially boast the third-greatest odds when the lottery is drawn on May 15.

Although the Hawks equaled Dallas in futility, both teams limited to 24 wins on the year, they’ll slot in one spot behind them at No. 4. That means, if neither team secures a top-three pick when the lottery results are revealed, they’ll just pick after them, the same as if they had won one more game. Both teams, however, will have nearly identical odds (13.7% versus 13.8%) of securing a top-three pick in the lottery.

The Bulls also won big today, edging out the Kings for the No. 6 spot. Sacramento will have an identical shot at landing at top-three pick, however.

The four-way tie between Utah, New Orleans, Oklahoma City and Indiana ended with the Thunder at No. 20, the Jazz at No. 21, the Pelicans at No. 22 and the Pacers at No. 23.

That Oklahoma City pick will head to Minnesota while the 22nd pick will go straight to the Bulls as part of the Nikola Mirotic deal.

The Heat won the tiebreaker for the the 16th pick, ahead of the Bucks, and will send that to Phoenix as part of the Goran Dragic trade back in 2015.

Milwaukee claiming the No. 17 pick is particularly interesting since, had they won the tiebreaker, they would have had to flip the pick to the Suns as part of the Greg Monroe trade. Since they didn’t, they’ll keep the pick and send a protected first-rounder in 2019, so long as it falls between 4-16.

The Spurs won the coin toss between themselves and the Timberwolves and will now pick at No. 18. Minnesota’s 19th pick will go to Atlanta as part of a 2015 Adreian Payne trade.

As is always the case, the loser of any tiebreaker will end up with the better pick in the second round. In the event of the four-way tie, all four teams will simply be flipped, giving the Pacers the 50th pick and so on.

Here’s a rundown of what the draft order currently looks like, prior to the results of the May lottery.

Pick Team
1 Suns
2 Grizzlies
3 Mavs
4 Hawks
5 Magic
6 Bulls
7 Kings
8 Cavaliers
9 Knicks
10 76ers
11 Hornets
12 Clippers
13 Clippers
14 Nuggets
15 Wizards
16 Suns
17 Bucks
18 Spurs
19 Hawks
20 Wolves
21 Jazz
22 Bulls
23 Pacers
24 Trail Blazers
25 Lakers
26 76ers
27 Celtics
28 Warriors
29 Nets
30 Hawks