Thunder Rumors

Nothing about the Thunder‘s offseason moves in 2022 signaled that they were preparing to make a playoff push. Oklahoma City’s lottery selection, No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren, suffered a season-ending injury before training camps opened, and the team’s most notable offseason addition via free agency or trade was Isaiah Joe, who signed a low-cost contract days before the regular season began after being waived by Philadelphia.

But the young core the Thunder have been putting together since they began the process of rebuilding in 2019 finally began to look like something resembling a future contender this past season, even with Holmgren not yet a part of it.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made the leap to superstardom, earning a spot on the All-NBA First Team; 2021 lottery pick Josh Giddey built on a promising rookie season by improving his numbers across the board, including bumping his shooting percentage from 41.9% to 48.2%; Luguentz Dort continued to establish himself as one of the NBA’s elite wing defenders; and 2022 lottery pick Jalen Williams made a legitimate case for Rookie of the Year honors, averaging 18.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 4.3 APG on an incredible .546/.429/.880 shooting line after the All-Star break.

The Thunder didn’t make the playoffs, but they got pretty close. They finished the regular season as the No. 10 team in the West, then beat the Pelicans in their first play-in game before falling to the Timberwolves in the battle for the conference’s final playoff spot.

While the Thunder aren’t a contender yet, their days at the bottom of the NBA’s standings appear to be over for now. With Holmgren and another lottery pick set to join an already strong core and a plethora of extra future first-round picks and swaps still on hand, Oklahoma City is trending in the right direction and could be a force to be reckoned with in the West in just a couple of years.

The Thunder’s Offseason Plan:

The hope of every tanking team is to luck into a top pick that can be used to draft a player capable of single-handedly transforming the franchise. There’s a player like that available in this year’s draft class – Victor Wembanyama is considered the best prospect to enter the NBA since LeBron James – but the Thunder’s unexpectedly strong season all but eliminated them from the Wembanyama sweepstakes — the club has just a 1.7% chance at the No. 1 overall pick.

That’s OK though. While Sam Presti and the Thunder’s front office would certainly love to add Wembanyama to the roster, this isn’t a team that desperately needs the French phenom like certain other clubs in the lottery. There’s already a very strong foundation here, and Oklahoma City’s stash of future picks puts the team in position to acquire another impact player without even touching the present core.

Still, I’d be surprised if a trade for a star is on the docket this summer. Presti and his group have shown a willingness to be patient throughout their rebuild, using their extra trade assets to target specific players they like in the draft rather than veterans.

That approach was on display last June when the Thunder traded three protected future first-rounders for the rights to the No. 11 pick, ensuring no team would be able to leapfrog them at No. 12 to snag Williams. The Thunder ultimately drafted Ousmane Dieng with the No. 11 pick, but subsequent reporting indicated Williams was the guy they wanted most in the back end of the lottery — they took him with their own pick at No. 12 in case their tentative agreement for No. 11 fell through before it became official.

Oklahoma City will most likely have the No. 12 pick again in this year’s draft. But if there’s a player a few spots higher that the front office wants badly enough, the team has the ammo necessary to go get him without compromising its future at all.

Eventually, the time may come to cash in some of those future draft picks for a win-now player, but the way the Thunder are building makes sense and has worked for Presti before; Kevin Durant, Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka were all drafted by the team between 2007-09. With no postseason-or-bust mandate facing him, Presti can continue to add promising young pieces to this core and assess which ones fit and which ones don’t before making any major moves to fill the necessary holes.

That doesn’t mean the Thunder won’t do anything interesting this summer. Taking into account the team’s 10 players on guaranteed contracts, plus Joe’s $2MM non-guaranteed salary and the cap hold for the No. 12 overall pick, OKC could create upwards of $36MM in cap room.

In recent years, the Thunder have taken advantage of that sort of cap flexibility by accommodating salary dumps of unwanted contracts (think Kemba Walker and Derrick Favors) in order to acquire draft assets.

They’re more likely to go in that direction again than they are to go big-game hunting in free agency, but perhaps in those trade talks with cost-cutting teams the Thunder will prioritize acquiring useful rotation players rather than continuing to stockpile future draft picks. Even if they won’t be contending for a title in 2024, the Thunder might like to get their young players some playoff experience — adding a couple reliable role-playing veterans to their rotation would aid in that effort.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on Aleksej Pokusevski, the lone Thunder player who is eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason. Pokusevski, a seven-footer who can handle the ball, is still just 21 years old and has shown tantalizing potential in his first three NBA seasons, increasing his three-point percentage to 36.5% in 2022/23.

However, a leg injury essentially ended Pokusevski’s season on December 27 (he appeared in just three games after that), and OKC had a dismal minus-13.2 net rating and 118.7 defensive rating when he was on the court this season, easily the worst marks of any player on the roster. The Thunder will soon have to decide whether he has a place in their future.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($33,386,850)
• Luguentz Dort ($15,277,778)
• Chet Holmgren ($10,386,000)
• Josh Giddey ($6,587,040)
• Kenrich Williams ($6,175,000)
• Aleksej Pokusevski ($5,009,633)
• Ousmane Dieng ($4,798,440)
• Jalen Williams ($4,558,680)
• Tre Mann ($3,191,400)
• Jaylin Williams ($2,000,000)
• Total: $91,370,821
  

Dead/Retained Salary

• None

Player Options

• None

Team Options

• Lindy Waters ($1,927,896): Early Bird rights
• Total: $1,927,896

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• Isaiah Joe ($1,997,238)
• Jeremiah Robinson-Earl ($1,900,000)
  • Note: Robinson-Earl’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
• Aaron Wiggins ($1,836,096)
• Total: $5,733,334

Restricted Free Agents

• None

Two-Way Free Agents

• Jared Butler: Non-Bird rights
• Olivier Sarr: Non-Bird rights

Draft Picks

• No. 12 overall ($4,704,720)
  • Note: This is only a placeholder until the draft order is determined via the lottery.
• No. 35 overall (no cap hold)
  • Note: The Thunder would instead receive the No. 50 overall pick if the Spurs end up with a higher first-round pick than the Rockets via the lottery.
• No. 37 overall (no cap hold)
  • Note: The Thunder would instead receive the No. 38 overall pick if the Wizards end up with a higher first-round pick than the Pacers via the lottery.
• Total: $4,704,720

Extension-Eligible Players

• Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (veteran)
• Dario Saric (veteran)
• Aleksej Pokusevski (rookie scale)

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Saric is only eligible until June 30.

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

• Dario Saric ($17,556,000 cap hold): Bird rights
• Deonte Burton ($1,989,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
• Nick Collison ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
• Raymond Felton ($1,989,698 cap hold): Early Bird rights
• Melvin Frazier ($1,774,999 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Kevin Hervey ($1,774,999 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Total: $27,075,092

Note: The cap holds for the players in italics remain on the Thunder’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

• Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
• Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
• Trade exception: $4,264,629
• Trade exception: $4,220,057
  • Note: Expires on October 2.
• Trade exception: $3,500,000
• Trade exception: $943,000
  • Note: Expires on October 2.
    
• Trade exception: $781,759
  • Note: Expires on September 27.
    

Note: If the Thunder go under the cap to use room, they’ll lose access to all of these exceptions and will gain access to the room exception.