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Trade Breakdown: Dario Saric To The Thunder

March 9th, 2023 at 12:00pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the sixth entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Suns and Thunder…

On February 9, the Thunder traded forward/center Darius Bazley to the Suns in exchange for forward/center Dario Saric, Phoenix’s 2029 second-round pick and $1MM in cash.

The Thunder’s perspective:

On the surface, this seems like a pretty minor trade that got lost in the shuffle a bit due to all the blockbusters leading up to the deadline. That said, I thought it was interesting for a number of different reasons.

As our Luke Adams explains in our glossary entry on traded player exceptions, even though this seems like a straightforward one-for-one swap, this was actually a non-simultaneous deal for both the Thunder and the Suns, making it mutually beneficial.

A non-simultaneous deal means a team can trade away a single player without immediately taking salary back in return, allowing it to create an outstanding trade exception.

This deal showed the value of having a large ($10,183,800) outstanding traded player exception, which permitted the Thunder to take on Saric’s $9,240,000 contract for “nothing.” That also allowed them to generate a new TPE, worth $4,264,629, which is what Bazley is making this season.

The Suns created their own TPE because they only traded one player and took back less salary than they sent out. It’s worth $4,975,371, which is the difference between Saric’s salary and Bazley’s. Both teams will have until next February to use their new TPEs.

There are plenty of examples of large TPEs not being used at all. Often that has to do with the team’s proximity to the luxury tax and its willingness (or lack thereof) to pay a huge chunk of cash for what could amount to a rental player (many players involved in deadline deals are on expiring or pseudo-expiring contracts — both Saric and Bazley could hit free agency this summer, for example).

The Thunder were in the sweet spot of being over the cap but far enough below the luxury tax line that they could use their large TPE to create an additional asset of sorts to possibly create future value. It also netted them a second-round pick and a little cash, since the Suns were motivated to move off Saric’s contract.

Cap aspects aside, when it was first announced, my first thought was to wonder if Saric might reach a buyout agreement or get waived, even though the Thunder were (and still are) in the play-in race. A handful of days after the deadline, it definitely sounded like he wasn’t going to pursue a buyout, praising the organization and saying he was “open-minded” about his potential role.

However, a report late last month indicated that he nearly was waived as Oklahoma City sought flexibility with its last roster spot, instead choosing to release Eugene Omoruyi.

My second thought was, wait, did the Thunder just make an on-court upgrade and get draft capital back? That very rarely happens.

That’s not to say the Thunder made a win-now move, far from it. The primary objective was landing the second-round pick and creating a new TPE. Saric is on an expiring contract and I’m sure the Thunder’s front office wouldn’t mind if they missed the postseason, though they haven’t shown any signs of blatantly tanking to this point.

He may not be a household name, but Saric is an accomplished player, providing solid value with all three of his previous clubs (he started with Philadelphia and was traded to Minnesota in the Jimmy Butler deal back in ‘18/19). He holds career averages of 11.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 1.9 APG on .443/.360/.838 shooting in 402 games (217 starts, 24.0 MPG).

Saric missed all of last season while recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in Game 1 of the 2021 NBA Finals. He had a second surgery last May to repair a torn meniscus, making it an open question what his form would look like upon his return from two major knee surgeries.

He (understandably) had a very slow start to 2022/23, only appearing in 22 of Phoenix’s first 41 games with averages of 3.8 PPG and 2.8 RPG on .358/.351/.857 shooting in 11.6 MPG. That’s why I said his free agent stock was trending down when I wrote about him in January.

However, he was a rotation fixture in the 15 games (seven starts, 18.5 MPG) leading up to the deadline, averaging 8.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 2.3 APG on .485/.438/.800 shooting. Saric’s solid play has continued post-trade, as he’s averaging 10.1 PPG and 3.7 RPG on a scorching hot .627/.458/.889 shooting line through nine games with the Thunder (14.9 MPG).

The 28-year-old has an excellent feel for the game, using his high basketball IQ to overcome his relative lack of athleticism. He is a below-the-rim finisher, but has good touch and lots of tricks around the basket – he’s shooting 67.1% at the rim this season, which ranks in the 71st percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com.

The Thunder run a five-out offense where every player on the court is capable of dribbling, passing, screening and shooting. All of those are strengths of Saric’s.

He isn’t a great defensive player at either frontcourt position, and he’s undersized against some centers (he’s listed at 6’10” and 225 pounds). That said, he’s generally in the right spots, he just lacks the foot speed to stick on the perimeter and the length to protect the paint.

Oklahoma City has had a ton of draft picks over the past few years, and still has loads more in the future. Bazley was one that didn’t work out.

The No. 23 overall pick of the 2019 draft, Bazley entered the NBA as an excellent athlete with raw skills. He turned into a solid defensive player, but struggled mightily offensively.

I gained a newfound respect for Bazley as a person after I saw a video of him talking about his diminished playing time this season (he only appeared in 36 of 54 games for an average of 15.4 MPG). His team-first attitude and self-awareness were admirable.

While Bazley is certainly young and talented enough that he could develop elsewhere, he was viewed as unlikely to be in the Thunder’s long-term plans even if they had kept him through the deadline. The harsh reality is trades are part of the business.

The Suns’ perspective:

Phoenix’s primary, secondary and tertiary reasons for making this deal were financial. As Luke Adams details in our glossary entry, the NBA’s luxury tax is set up so that the penalties become increasingly punitive the further teams go beyond the tax line.

Trading Saric for Bazley saved the Suns approximately $20MM toward their estimated luxury tax payment. According to Eric Pincus of Sports Business Classroom, the Suns are currently $22,249,841 over the tax with an estimated luxury tax bill of $53,436,904. And that’s after this trade was made.

Saric started to pick up steam prior to the deadline, was a key contributor to the team’s culture, and played a role in its run to the Finals a couple years ago. Would he have provided $20MM worth of value for the remainder of this season? In the most optimistic scenarios, maybe? But probably not.

Trading for Kevin Durant means there won’t be many minutes at power forward in the playoffs. Ditto at center behind Deandre Ayton. The Suns still have several options to explore backing up those frontcourt spots, including Torrey Craig, T.J. Warren, Ish Wainright, Jock Landale, Bismack Biyombo and Bazley.

Maybe the Suns like Bazley as a defender and believe he has untapped upside on offense. He’s still just 22 years old. But he had also only appeared in one of a possible seven games (for seven minutes) entering Wednesday’s matchup with his former team.

In all likelihood, Bazley’s role will be minor going forward. As a championship hopeful, the Suns can’t really afford to play him when it counts, because opposing teams dare him to shoot and he’s only converting 50% at the rim, which is in the sixth percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.

Given Phoenix’s cap situation going forward, plus its window of contention and where Bazley is at in his development, the odds of him receiving a qualifying offer to become a restricted free agent seem slim. If that scenario plays out, he would instead become an unrestricted free agent in the offseason.

The $4,975,371 TPE the Suns created as part of the deal could be used to acquire a player who makes more than the minimum at some point in the future. Losing one second-round pick several years down the line isn’t a big deal, as a few are typically up for sale in every draft.

How far the Suns go in the postseason will ultimately be determined by their star players’ health. Obviously, Durant suffering an ankle sprain just three games after returning from a knee injury isn’t ideal, but they’ve still been on a roll lately, winning 16 of their past 21 games.

The Suns are betting they have enough depth behind Durant and Ayton that losing Saric won’t come back to bite them – a reasonable position, particularly considering how much money they saved by moving him.

Kevin Durant Believes The Thunder Are Headed In The Right Direction

March 8th, 2023 at 7:31pm CST by Arthur Hill

Kevin Durant sees a bright future for his first NBA franchise, per Dana Scott of The Arizona Republic. The Thunder will be the opponent tonight when Durant plays his first home game with the Suns. “You got some potential up and down the lineup, guys that can be impact players in this league, a front office and coaching staff that understands what that’s like developing players,” Durant said of the Thunder. “So the last couple years they’ve been trending in the right direction and I feel like they’re working their way to being a playoff team.”

EuroLeague Star Micic Hires New Rep

March 7th, 2023 at 10:21pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Serbian guard Vasilije Micic has hired the Wasserman Media Group as his new representative, HoopsHype tweets. Micic, whose draft rights are owned by the Thunder, is a two-time Euroleague Final Four MVP and is considered the best guard in Europe. However, it’s unclear whether the Thunder would have a role for the 29-year-old if he pursued an NBA career next season and he could be traded if he wants to make the jump.

Checking In On Traded 2023 First-Round Picks

March 7th, 2023 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

We still have nearly five weeks left in the NBA’s regular season, and play-in results, tiebreakers, and the draft lottery will further clarify what this year’s draft order will look like.

However, as the season enters its home stretch, we’re starting to get a clearer sense of which traded 2023 first-round picks will actually change hands (as opposed to falling in their protected range) and where those first-rounders will land. Here’s where things stand right now:

Picks that will be protected

Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected) to Knicks
Hornets‘ pick (top-16 protected) to Spurs

The Pistons and Hornets are currently the bottom two teams in the Eastern Conference and appear unlikely to move any higher in the standings. There’s obviously no chance that they’ll end up picking the back half of the first round, so they’ll hang onto their first-round picks for at least one more year.

Once both of those picks are officially protected, the Pistons will owe the Knicks their 2024 first-rounder with top-18 protection, while the Hornets will owe the Spurs their 2024 first-rounder with top-14 protection.

Picks on track to change hands

Sixers‘ and Nets‘ picks (unprotected) to Nets and Jazz.
Bucks‘ and Clippers‘ picks (unprotected) to Clippers and Rockets.
Mavericks‘ pick (top-10 protected) to Knicks
Timberwolves‘ pick (unprotected) to Jazz.
Suns‘ pick (unprotected) to Nets.
Knicks‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Trail Blazers.
Cavaliers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Pacers.
Celtics‘ pick (top-12 protected) to Pacers.
Nuggets‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Hornets.

Let’s work backwards and start with the obvious here. The Nuggets currently have the NBA’s second-best record, which would result in the No. 29 pick. The Celtics’ third-best record would give them the No. 28 pick. So Charlotte and Indiana, respectively, will definitely get those picks, but they’ll be pretty late in the first round.

Given the unpredictability that the play-in possibility injects into the playoff race, it may be a little early to lock in the Cavaliers and Knicks as automatic playoff teams, but they’re certainly trending in that direction. If the season ended today, Indiana would get the No. 26 overall pick from Cleveland and Portland would get the No. 23 selection from New York.

The Timberwolves’ and Suns’ picks have no protections, so they’re definitely changing hands — the only question is where they’ll land. Right now, Phoenix’s No. 21 pick would go to Brooklyn and Minnesota’s No. 18 pick would go to Utah.

The fact that the Mavericks’ pick is top-10 protected instead of lottery-protected means it could convey to the Knicks even if Dallas doesn’t earn a playoff spot. Right now, the Mavs are the seventh seed in the West and would owe the No. 17 seed to New York, but the playoff race is so tight and the play-in has such potential for fluctuation that Dallas’ pick could move a few spots in either direction.

The Nets will have the right to either their own pick or the Sixers’ pick, whichever is more favorable, with Utah receiving the less favorable of the two. Right now, that means Brooklyn would hang onto its own first-rounder (No. 22) while the Jazz would get Philadelphia’s pick (No. 27).

The Rockets won’t get to take advantage of their ability to swap their own pick for Brooklyn’s, but they have a second set of swap rights that should come in handy — Houston has the ability to swap Milwaukee’s first-rounder for the Clippers’ pick, with L.A. getting the less favorable of the two. That means if the season ended today, the Rockets would be in line for the Clippers’ first-rounder at No. 16, while L.A. would get the Bucks’ pick and move down 14 spots to No. 30.

One caveat here: If the Clippers’ first-round pick happens to land ahead of the Thunder’s pick, Oklahoma City would be able to swap its own pick for L.A.’s, then Houston could swap the Bucks’ first-rounder for OKC’s pick. For now though, that looks like a long shot, with the Clippers far better positioned than the Thunder in the Western playoff race.

Picks that remain the most up in the air

Bulls‘ pick (top-4 protected) to Magic
Wizards‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Knicks
Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected) to Bulls
Lakers‘ pick (unprotected) to Pelicans via swap rights

If the season ended today, the Bulls would be seventh in the draft lottery standings. That would give them a 31.9% chance to move up into the top four, meaning their pick would have about a two-in-three chance to go to Orlando. The Magic’s odds of acquiring the pick will increase if Chicago finishes the season strong.

If the Bulls manage to hang onto their pick this year, they’d owe the Magic their top-three protected first-rounder in 2024.

The Wizards are 10th in the East and have a decent chance to secure a play-in berth, but their odds of capturing a playoff spot are longer. If they lose in the play-in (or miss it entirely), they’ll keep their first-rounder rather than sending it to the Knicks, and would instead owe New York their top-12 protected pick in 2024.

The Trail Blazers are in a similar boat in the West, still in the play-in hunt but with increasingly long odds to actually make the playoffs. If they don’t get a first-round series in the postseason, they’ll hang onto their pick rather than sending it to the Bulls. Chicago will have to wait until Portland makes the playoffs to get that first-round selection, which remains lottery-protected through 2028.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans’ ability to swap first-rounders with the Lakers has been one of the most fascinating draft assets to monitor this year.

At one point in the first half, with Los Angeles off to an awful start and the Pelicans firing on all cylinders, it looked like New Orleans would be able to use that swap to move from the 20s into the top 10. Today, both teams have identical 31-34 records and have been trending in opposite directions. If that trend continues, New Orleans will end up keeping its own pick rather than swapping it for the Lakers’ first-rounder.

Pokusevski Practicing With Thunder's G League Team

March 7th, 2023 at 1:55pm CST by Luke Adams

Thunder forward Aleksej Pokusevski was briefly assigned to the Oklahoma City Blue to practice with the G League team as he recovers from the left leg fracture that has kept him on the shelf since late December, per Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman (Twitter links). Pokusevski will probably assigned and recalled for practice purposes a few more times, Mussatto adds, noting that the 21-year-old’s return isn’t imminent quite yet.

Kenrich Williams Undergoes Wrist Surgery, Out For Season

March 7th, 2023 at 9:29am CST by Arthur Hill

MARCH 7: The Thunder formally confirmed that Williams underwent surgery on Tuesday morning in New York to repair the scapholunate ligament in his left wrist. He’ll miss the rest of this season and will be ready for the start of 2023/24, per the team.

MARCH 2: Kenrich Williams suffered a wrist injury in Tuesday’s game that will require surgery and he is expected to miss the rest of the 2022/23 season, the Thunder announced in a press release.

Williams has been diagnosed with a scapholunate ligament rupture in his left wrist. The injury was originally listed as a sprain, and he was inactive for Wednesday’s game.

The 28-year-old swingman is averaging 8.0 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.0 assists through 53 games while shooting 51.7% from the field. He also leads the NBA in charges drawn with 26.

Williams is expected to make a full recovery following surgery, according to the Thunder.

He is under contract through 2025/26 with a team option for the following season, having signed a four-year extension with Oklahoma City last summer. That contract will begin next season and will bump Williams’ salary from $2MM to $6.175MM.

Thunder Notes: SGA, Butler, Jaylin Williams

March 6th, 2023 at 1:57pm CST by Rory Maher

Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman (subscriber link) calls Shai Gilgeous-Alexander another “too-good-to-be-true superstar,” noting that the fifth-year guard went out of his way to wear a Thunder– and Oklahoma City-inspired jacket to his first All-Star game. As Tramel writes, Gilgeous-Alexander may not have had the prospect pedigree of Kevin Durant, but he has developed into a star in his own right, and the 24-year-old is a “consummate leader, forever saying and doing the right things.”

When Tramel brought his “too-good-to-be-true” theory up to head coach Mark Daigneault, he readily agreed.

“Part of the reason why it’s too good to be true, is because he doesn’t separate himself out,” Daigneault said of SGA. “Even with all the temptations and all the attention and status and money, and all the stuff that could tempt you to separate yourself.

“And really, there’s nothing in the NBA stopping players from doing that. You’re kind of at the mercy of whether they want to. Fortunately for us, he’s on that track. He’s already checked a lot of those boxes. And yet, he wants to do it inside the team. He wants to do it inside the organization, he wants to be part of something bigger than himself.”

Gilgeous-Alexander’s maturity and team-first mentality, not to mention his long-term contract that runs through 2026/27, seems to bode well for the Thunder as they continue to build around him, according to Tramel.

Here’s more on the Thunder:

Gilgeous-Alexander cleared the NBA’s health and safety protocols on Saturday and was able to suit up on Sunday, tweets Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. Gilgeous-Alexander missed five consecutive games with a combination of an abdominal strain, right ankle soreness and then entering the protocols. The Thunder went just 1-4 in his absence, but were victorious last night against Utah. The 24-year-old didn’t miss a beat in his return, recording 38 points, seven rebounds, four assists, three steals and a block.
Daigneault said Thunder GM Sam Presti was high on guard Jared Butler entering the 2021 draft, per Mussatto (Twitter link). Butler just signed a two-way deal with Oklahoma City last week, making one brief appearance thus far. The Thunder had four picks ahead of where Butler was selected (No. 40 overall), including two in the 30s, so they had multiple chances to take him. Instead, they wound up packaging the Nos. 34 and 36 picks (used on Rokas Jokubaitis and Miles McBride) in a trade to land Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (No. 32).
In an article for The Oklahoman, Mussatto details how rookie big man Jaylin Williams and the Thunder have perfected the art of drawing charges. The team has a league-leading 83 charges on the season, far exceeding the Heat’s 63, which ranks second. Williams is a ground-bound center, but he uses his game knowledge to protect the rim in a different way. “It stems from my dad,” he said, “just watching film with him from a young age, me understanding the game and understanding there’s more than basketball than putting the rock through the rim.”

Lindy Waters Discusses Promotion From Hometown Team

March 3rd, 2023 at 11:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Thunder wing Lindy Waters, who grew up in Norman and played his college ball at Oklahoma State, is thrilled to have signed a standard NBA contract with his hometown team, as Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman writes. “Thankful for a lot of people along the way that helped me to get to where I am,” Waters said. “Very thankful for the organization for giving me a shot, letting me come in and work out and showing they care. But yeah, it’s just been a wild ride.”

Jared Butler Signs Two-Way Contract With Thunder

March 3rd, 2023 at 2:58pm CST by Rory Maher

MARCH 3: Butler has officially signed a two-way contract with the Thunder, according to a press release from the team.

MARCH 2: The Thunder intend to sign guard Jared Butler to a two-way contract, his agent, Mark Bartelstein of Priority Sports, tells ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link).

Butler was a key member of the national champion Baylor Bears in 2021, averaging 16.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 4.8 APG and 2.0 SPG while shooting 41.6% from 3-point range as a junior. However, questions about his health hurt his draft stock and he slipped to No. 40 overall in the 2021 draft after having been considered a likely first-rounder.

The 22-year-old spent his rookie season with the Jazz, appearing sparingly in 42 games (8.6 MPG) while averaging 3.8 PPG and 1.5 APG on .404/.318/.688 shooting. Utah had a roster crunch during preseason this past fall and ultimately released Butler despite the fact that his $1.56MM salary for this season was guaranteed.

Butler has spent the 2022/23 season with the Grand Rapids Gold, Denver’s G League affiliate, averaging 19.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 5.2 APG and 1.2 SPG on .483/.458/.771 shooting in 18 games (30.1 MPG) during the fall Showcase Cup. He has averaged 17.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 5.8 APG on .438/.354/.840 shooting in 23 regular season games (30.2 MPG) with the Gold.

The Thunder had an open two-way slot, so they won’t need to cut anyone to sign Butler. Their 17-man roster will be full once the move is official.

Thunder Entered 2022 Draft Focused On Landing Jalen Williams

March 3rd, 2023 at 12:58pm CST by Luke Adams

The Thunder entered last year’s draft determined to come away with both Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst (Insider link), who takes a look back at how the team ensured it ended up with Williams late in the lottery. According to Windhorst, the Thunder were concerned that their interest in Williams had gotten out and that a team would trade for the Knicks’ pick at No. 11 to nab the Santa Clara star before Oklahoma City could take him at No. 12.

As Windhorst explains, the Thunder ultimately agreed to acquire the No. 11 pick from New York and used it to select Ousmane Dieng, then drafted Williams with their own pick at No. 12 — that way, if the deal with the Knicks fell through before becoming official, they’d still be assured of having Williams.

Williams is enjoying a strong rookie season for the Thunder, starting 45 of 58 games and averaging 12.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, and 3.1 APG while shooting 51.1% from the floor.