- Rookie Theo Maledon finds himself in a much different role with the Thunder than when he began the season, Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman notes. With many players injured or sitting out, Maledon has become more of a scoring guard. “The injuries and the new guys on the roster forced me to be that kind of guy, be more aggressive and have more opportunity to create for me and my teammates,” he said. The early second-round pick has averaged 12.4 PPG since the All-Star break.
Although the races for the final playoff positions in the Eastern and Western Conference will generate more excitement during the last week of the NBA’s 2020/21 season, the jockeying for lottery positioning near the bottom of the league’s standings may ultimately be more meaningful in the long run. The seventh and eighth seeds rarely win a playoff series, but at least one or two teams generally land franchise-changing players in the draft lottery every year.
The lottery odds have been flattened and the format has been tweaked enough in recent years that finishing at or near the bottom of the NBA standings doesn’t necessarily guarantee a top spot in the draft. But teams can still improve their odds of landing a top pick based on where they finish in the standings.
With the help of our reverse standings tool, here are a few lottery situations and races to watch down the stretch:
The Rockets will clinch the lottery’s top spot
It’s not official yet, but the Rockets (16-52) will finish the season with the NBA’s worst record and the No. 1 spot in the lottery standings. They could formally secure that spot with a loss on Monday night in Portland.
Because the top three teams in the lottery standings will each have identical odds at the No. 1 pick (14.0%) and at a top-four pick (52.1%), it’s not necessarily a huge advantage to finish with the NBA’s worst record instead of the third-worst record. However, the Thunder will certainly appreciate the Rockets finishing dead last instead of third-last.
The Rockets will be forced to sent their pick to Oklahoma City in exchange for Miami’s first-rounder, but only if it falls outside of the top four. That means Houston will have a 52.1% chance to hang onto its pick and a 47.9% chance of sending it to the Thunder.
If the Rockets had finished third in the lottery standings, those odds wouldn’t change, but the pick could slip as far as sixth or seventh if multiple teams leapfrog Houston in the lottery. Because the Rockets will be No. 1 in the lottery standings, that pick can’t fall further than fifth overall — that would be the ideal outcome for Oklahoma City and there’s a 47.9% chance it will happen.
The Nos. 2 through 6 spots are up for grabs
The Pistons (20-49) currently rank second in the lottery standings, followed by the Thunder (21-48), then the Magic, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers (all 21-47).
The win column is the key number to watch here, since some of these clubs may not win another game during the season’s final week. So Detroit has a slight leg up on the second spot, but a single Pistons win could really create some chaos.
While all of these teams have fairly challenging remaining schedules, Detroit and Minnesota are the ones to watch. Their schedules are the easiest of the five, per Tankathon, largely because they’ll face one another in Detroit on Tuesday.
The Timberwolves, of course, are the one team in this group not particularly motivated to tank, since their pick will be sent to the Warriors if it’s not in the top three.
Here are the lottery odds these five teams will be looking at, based on their finishes:
# | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – |
3 | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – |
4 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – |
5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – |
6 | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
When two teams finished with identical records, their lottery odds also become identical (or as close to it as possible). For instance, if two teams tie for No. 4 in the lottery standings, they’d both have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick — the middle ground between 12.5% and 10.5%. The same rules apply in the event of a three-team tie.
In each of those instances, a random tiebreaker determines which team technically places higher in the lottery standings. That tiebreaker determines how far a team can fall in the draft order and sometimes gives a team an extra “ping-pong ball.”
For instance, if three teams finish tied for the No. 4 spot in the lottery standings, the team that wins the tiebreaker would have a 10.7% chance at the top pick and couldn’t fall further than No. 8. The club that loses the three-team tiebreaker would have a 10.6% chance at the No. 1 pick and could fall as far as No. 10.
Given how close this section of the lottery race is, it’s safe to assume we’ll see at least one tie in the end-of-season standings.
The Raptors are in the lead for the No. 7 spot
The Raptors (27-41) can’t move up higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings, but they’re in a good position to secure that spot, with a multi-game cushion on the Bulls (29-30), Kings (30-38), and Pelicans (31-37). Those three clubs have pushed harder for a spot in the play-in tournament than Toronto has.
Assuming the Raptors finish with the seventh-best odds, they’ll have a 7.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9% chance to move into the top four. As for the Bulls, if they remain at No. 8, they’ll have a 6.0% chance at No. 1 and a 26.2% shot a top-four pick — those odds are especially important, since Chicago will send its pick to Orlando if it falls outside the top four.
Meanwhile, the 10 teams that miss out on play-in spots will be joined in the lottery by the four teams eliminated in the play-in games — even if one or more of those teams finished the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in the conference.
For instance, let’s say the season ended today, making the 38-30 Lakers the No. 7 seed in the West. In the unlikely event that they lost two consecutive play-in games, they’d move into the lottery standings at No. 14, whereas if they were to secure a postseason berth in the play-in tournament, their pick would land in the early 20s.
Los Angeles will keep its first-rounder if it falls in the 8-30 range, so if the Lakers end up in the play-in, New Orleans will be actively rooting against them — should the Lakers miss the playoffs, there’s a chance their pick could move into the top four via the lottery, in which case it’d be sent to the Pelicans.
Karl-Anthony Towns sees Timberwolves teammate Anthony Edwards as a clear choice for Rookie of the Year, writes Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. Edwards had a slow start to his first NBA season, but he has been on a torrid pace lately, averaging 30.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists in his last four games while shooting 48% from three-point range. Edwards and Hornets guard LaMelo Ball are the leading contenders for top rookie honors, but Towns doesn’t see it as a close race.
“There ain’t no other rookie in this league getting double-teamed. There ain’t no other rookie putting up the numbers Ant is. There ain’t no other rookie causing the havoc and mayhem before the game even starts with the scouting reports like Anthony is,” Towns said. “But I don’t want to hear nothing about no other people who are rookies. I don’t want to hear that. I don’t go by hype, I go by stats.”
There’s more from the Northwest Division:
- Everyone involved in the proposed sale of the Timberwolves remains confident that a deal will be completed, Krawczynski notes in a profile of prospective new co-owner Marc Lore. He and Alex Rodriguez are nearing the end of a 30-day exclusive negotiating window to finalize the purchase of the team.
- Kenrich Williams wasn’t certain to win a roster spot with the Thunder in training camp, but now he seems like part of the team’s future, according to Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. Williams was considered salary filler when Oklahoma City acquired him from the Pelicans as part of the Steven Adams deal in November. He has earned a spot in the rotation and is averaging 7.7 points and 4.2 rebounds per game in 21.5 minutes per night. “I’ve solidified my role as far as what I can be in this league,” Williams said. “My first two years I felt like I was just a pretty solid defender, solid all-around player, but offensively is where I wanted to take that next jump.”
- The close relationship between Nuggets coach Michael Malone and MVP candidate Nikola Jokic has helped the organization develop a championship culture, writes Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post. After six years together, they have created a belief throughout the organization that Denver can challenge for a title. “The guy gave me everything,” Jokic said of Malone. “The guy gave me the freedom, he led me, he showed me the way. And we built a great relationship, not just he’s the coach and I’m a player. We are friends, too. It’s more than basketball.”
The Thunder have signed guard Charlie Brown Jr. to his second 10-day deal following the expiration of his first one on Tuesday night, the team announced in a press release.
Since first joining Oklahoma City late last month, Brown has logged time in three games, including one start, and is averaging 5.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 1.0 SPG across 15.9 MPG.
Brown went undrafted out of Saint Joseph’s in 2019, and signed with the Hawks as a two-way player for 2019/20. This season, he appeared in 13 games with the Timberwolves’ G League affiliate, the Iowa Wolves, within the NBAGL’s “bubble” campus in Orlando. Brown averaged 12.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.9 APG and 1.69 SPG across 30.0 MPG for Iowa.
Brown’s new deal will run through May 14. The Thunder will have to decide after that whether to sign him to a rest-of-season contract that covers the club’s final game on May 16.
- Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault has revealed that star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still grappling with a “significant” plantar fascia tear, tweets Joe Mussatto of the Oklahoman. “It’s not something that you should really mess around with,” Daigneault said. “If we got aggressive with him, it could compromise him long term, which makes no sense for us for a player that is as important to our franchise as he is.” Gilgeous-Alexander has been sidelined since March with the injury.
The 2020/21 NBA regular season will come to an end on May 16. That means that there are just 14 days left in the season, and just four more days left to sign a player to a 10-day contract. As of this Friday (May 7), a 10-day deal would technically cover the remainder of the season.
With the playoffs around the corner, it makes sense that the number of active 10-day contracts around the NBA has been on the decline. The number of league-wide roster openings is also dwindling.
Here are the 10-day contracts that are currently active:
- Oklahoma City Thunder: Charlie Brown Jr. (runs through May 4)
- Orlando Magic: Ignas Brazdeikis (runs through May 11)
- Brooklyn Nets: Mike James (runs through May 12)
Of those three players, Brown is the only one who will technically be eligible to sign another 10-day contract when his current pact expires.
Meanwhile, with players like Austin Rivers, Mfiondu Kabengele, Anthony Tolliver, Yogi Ferrell, and Freddie Gillespie signing rest-of-season contracts within the last several days, more and more teams now have full 15-man rosters and may be done making roster moves this season.
The following teams still have at least one open spot on their 15-man squads:
- Golden State Warriors (2)
- Miami Heat
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- New Orleans Pelicans
- New York Knicks
- Portland Trail Blazers
- San Antonio Spurs
- Washington Wizards
In addition to these clubs, the Nets, Magic, and Thunder would each have a roster opening if they don’t retain the players on 10-day contracts noted above. The Knicks just opened their 15th roster spot on Sunday night, when Jared Harper‘s 10-day deal expired.
While many of these teams figure to fill their rosters before the regular season ends – either with a developmental prospect or one more veteran for postseason depth – the Warriors are the only club here that must add at least one more player. Teams are only permitted to dip below 14 players on standard contracts for up to two weeks at a time. Since Golden State was carrying Gary Payton II on a 10-day deal up until last Thursday, they’ll have until next Thursday (May 13) to re-add a 14th man.
The following teams also have an open two-way contract slot, which they may or may not fill during the season’s final two weeks:
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- New York Knicks
- Phoenix Suns
- Toronto Raptors
With the Thunder now officially eliminated from play-in tournament contention, the rebuilding team appears open to developing some of its less-heralded young prospects. According to head coach Mark Daigneault, 6’6″ second-year shooting guard Charlie Brown Jr. will start and receive significant run while on a 10-day deal with the club, tweets Cameron Jourdan of the Oklahoman.
Brown inked a two-way deal with the Hawks after going undrafted out of St. Joseph’s for the 2019/20 season. So far with the Thunder, he’s averaging 16.0 MPG across three games.
- Charlie Brown Jr. is looking to make the most of his 10-day audition with the Thunder, a team he worked out for prior to the 2019 draft, as Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman details. Meanwhile, in a separate story, Mussatto writes about Gabriel Deck‘s “welcome to the NBA” moment during his debut on Thursday — the Argentinian forward was matched up with Zion Williamson during his first few minutes in the NBA.
Since the NBA’s 10-day signing window for the 2020/21 season officially opened in February, a total of 54 separate 10-day deals have been finalized. Many of those signings have be completed since the trade deadline passed a month ago — 36 10-day contracts have been signed in April alone.
With so much action on the 10-day market, we’re taking a little time today to check in on the 10-day deals that are still active, exploring which of those players are eligible for additional 10-day contracts and which teams are still shuttling players in and out of their back-end roster spots.
Here, with the help of our 10-day tracker and our roster counts page, are the players on active 10-day deals:
Players on their first 10-day contracts:
- Los Angeles Clippers: Yogi Ferrell (runs through 4/28)
- Denver Nuggets: Austin Rivers (runs through 4/29)
- Brooklyn Nets: Mike James (runs through 5/2)
- New York Knicks: Jared Harper (runs through 5/2)
- Oklahoma City Thunder: Charlie Brown (runs through 5/4)
These players will all be eligible for a second 10-day contract once their current deals expire. In the case of Brown, it’s possible the Thunder would just sign him to a rest-of-season deal if they’re comfortable keeping him around, since a second 10-day deal would run through at least May 14. The regular season ends on May 16.
Players on their second 10-day contracts:
- Toronto Raptors: Freddie Gillespie (runs through 4/27)
- Portland Trail Blazers: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (runs through 4/27)
- Golden State Warriors: Gary Payton II (runs through 4/28)
- Cleveland Cavaliers: Mfiondu Kabengele (runs through 4/30)
- Orlando Magic: Robert Franks (runs through 5/1)
- Update: Franks’ 10-day deal has been terminated early by the Magic.
- Philadelphia 76ers: Anthony Tolliver (runs through 5/1)
- Orlando Magic: Donta Hall (runs through 5/2)
These players won’t be eligible for a new 10-day contract when their current deals expire, since a player can’t sign three 10-day deals with the same team in a single season. It’s a safe bet that some of these players will receive rest-of-season contracts though — I’d be shocked if the Raptors let Gillespie get away, for instance.
Any team here that opts not to re-sign a player to a rest-of-season contract would open up a roster spot, which could be used on another 10-day trial before the regular season ends. Golden State and Portland are carrying just 14 players at the moment, so they’d have each two open roster spots if they don’t re-sign Payton and Hollis-Jefferson, respectively.
There are a handful of other teams that could still take advantage of the 10-day contract before the end of the season. The Heat, Timberwolves, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, and Wizards all have at least one open roster spot.
The Heat and Pelicans are right up against the luxury tax line and may be done with 10-days for the season, preferring rest-of-season commitments if and when they fill their roster openings. The Wolves, Spurs, and Wizards may end up going that route too, but for now they’re still decent candidates for 10-day signings.
The Kings, meanwhile, had Damian Jones on a pair of 10-day contracts before his second deal expired on Monday night. Head coach Luke Walton spoke positively about Jones’ contributions to the team, as Jason Anderson of The Sacramento Bee relays (via Twitter), so the veteran center could end up getting a rest-of-season contract. If so, Sacramento would have a full roster and would likely be done with 10-days for the season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Shooting guard Charlie Brown Jr. has inked a 10-day deal with the Thunder, according to an official team press release.
Brown, 24, went undrafted out of Saint Joseph’s in 2019, and began his NBA life as a two-way player for the Hawks for the 2019/20 season. Though he played sparingly for Atlanta (appearing in just 40 minutes across 10 games), Brown had a more robust output for Atlanta’s G League affiliate, the College Park Skyhawks. Over 29 games, he averaged 17.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.0 APG, and 1.52 SPG across 33.2 MPG.
Earlier this season, Brown signed a training camp contract with the Timberwolves, but was cut before playing any regular season games for Minnesota.
The 6’6″ second-year wing most recently suited up in 13 games for Minnesota’s G League affiliate, the Iowa Wolves, during the 2021 NBAGL “bubble” season in Orlando, averaging 12.5 PPG (on 44.7% field goal shooting), 5.5 RPG, 1.9 APG and 1.69 SPG across 30.0 MPG. Brown was among several Iowa Wolves players to be suspended for two games after violating the G League’s COVID-19 health and safety protocols while in Orlando.
The Thunder had an open spot on their 15-man roster after Justin Robinson‘s second 10-day deal with the team expired.