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Super-Max/Rose Rule Candidates To Watch After Mobley Cashed In

April 25th, 2025 at 8:49pm CST by Luke Adams

As we detailed on Thursday within our story about Evan Mobley earning Defensive Player of the Year honors, the award represented a major financial boon for the Cavaliers big man, who significantly increased the value of his contract extension by virtue of being named this season’s Defensive Player of the Year.

Mobley signed a five-year, maximum-salary rookie scale extension last summer that included Rose Rule language. The Rose Rule allows a player and team to negotiate a maximum salary worth up to 30% of the cap (instead of the usual 25%) for a player with just four years of NBA experience if he makes an All-NBA team or wins the MVP or DPOY award.

Interestingly, Mobley’s rookie scale extension would’ve started at 27.5% of the cap in 2025/26 if he had made the All-NBA third team (instead of one of the first two teams) and hadn’t won Defensive Player of the Year.

Now that he has received DPOY recognition, it will instead start at 30%.

Here are the three scenarios that had been in play for Mobley, based on a projected 10% cap increase:

Year 25% of cap 27.5% of cap 30% of cap
2025/26 $38,661,750 $42,527,925 $46,394,100
2026/27 $41,754,690 $45,930,159 $50,105,628
2027/28 $44,847,630 $49,332,393 $53,817,156
2028/29 $47,940,570 $52,734,627 $57,528,684
2029/30 $51,033,510 $56,136,861 $61,240,212
Total $224,238,150 $246,661,965 $269,085,780

Mobley cashed in with his DPOY win, locking in a contract that projects to be worth in excess of $269MM over the next five seasons. Are there any other players who could join him by earning All-NBA nods this spring?

There’s only really one other guy who entered award season in the same boat as Mobley, waiting to see if his rookie scale extension worth 25% of the cap will increase to 30% of the cap. That player is Pistons point guard Cade Cunningham.

Cunningham looks like a pretty safe bet to be included on one of the All-NBA teams for 2024/25, and unlike Mobley, his contract doesn’t include any variable rates between 25% and 30% depending on which All-NBA team he makes. If Cunningham is a third-teamer, that would still be enough to bump his ’25/26 salary to 30% of the cap, matching Mobley’s deal.

Two other players signed Rose Rule extensions last offseason, but Magic forward Franz Wagner didn’t appear in enough games to qualify for All-NBA consideration and Raptors forward Scottie Barnes isn’t a serious candidate for the honor — their new contracts will start at 25% of next season’s cap.

There’s one other player to watch for potential super-max candidacy though — Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr. would become eligible for a super-max (ie. “designated veteran“) contract extension worth up to 35% of the cap if he’s one of this season’s 15 All-NBA players. He looks like a solid bet to make the cut after serving as Memphis’ most reliable offensive weapon and earning DPOY votes.

If Jackson earns an All-NBA spot, the Grizzlies would have three options when they enter extension talks with him this offseason:

  1. They could offer him a raise of up to 40% off his current contract, but that likely wouldn’t be enough to get a deal done, since his salary in the final year of his current deal in 2025/26 is just $23.4MM, a relatively modest figure for an All-NBA caliber player.
  2. They could use cap room to renegotiate his ’25/26 salary in order to give him a raise and then extend him off of that figure. This is a legitimate option, given that the Grizzlies are in position to potentially carve out a little cap room.
  3. They could sign him to a super-max extension that starts anywhere between 30% and 35% of the cap. Although it’s typical for players who sign super-max deals to get the full 35%, a team doesn’t necessarily need to go that high — when Utah extended Rudy Gobert after he became super-max eligible with a Defensive Player of the Year win, for instance, his deal started at a little over 31% of the cap.

Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will also be eligible to sign a super-max contract extension this offseason — that would still be the case even if he doesn’t win this season’s MVP award or make an All-NBA team (he’ll almost certainly do both), since he achieved the performance criteria a year ago.

The Rose Rule and super-max performance criteria call for a player to earn All-NBA, MVP, or DPOY recognition in either the  preceding season or in two of the three preceding seasons, so Gilgeous-Alexander got there by making All-NBA teams in 2023 and 2024, even though he wouldn’t have enough years of service to sign his new deal until 2025.

No other stars are in position to meet that two-in-three-years criteria early this spring, like Gilgeous-Alexander did last year.

A player like Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards, for example, is on track to make his second straight All-NBA team, but won’t meet the years-of-service criteria for a super-max extension until 2027. That means that even if he earns an All-NBA spot this year, Edwards will have to do so again in either 2026 or 2027 to be eligible to sign that deal in ’27, since the 2024 nod won’t be counted within the preceding three seasons at that time.

We’re likely still a few weeks away from learning this year’s full All-NBA results. A year ago, the league announced those teams on May 22.

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Southeast Notes: Salaun, Mann, Magic, Heat

April 24th, 2025 at 11:02pm CST by Tristan Tucker

Hornets forward Tidjane Salaun got thrown into the deep end earlier than expected as a rookie due to the team’s extensive injury list. His first NBA season had highs and lows, Roderick Boone of The Charlotte Observer writes, but ultimately Salaun showed glimpses of what he can be at the next level and displayed what president of basketball operations Jeff Peterson values in building a contender.

“I had a lot of experience during this year,” Salaun said. “That was cool, to be around all of these guys, this organization. And yeah, my role was different so I could have more time than I think [was expected] but that was great. All of this experience is going to translate into everything for next season.”

Salaun ended the year averaging 5.9 points and 4.7 rebounds per game in 60 outings, including 10 starts.

“I would say he had a season that was probably pretty consistent with being the second-youngest player in the NBA,” Peterson said. “There were some good moments and there were some not-so-good moments. None of that came as a surprise to us. We knew there was going to be a learning curve. You come from the French league and then try to assimilate to this level playing against grown men, it’s hard. It’s really, really hard at this level, and we knew it would take some time.”

We have more from the Southeast Division:

  • Hornets guard Tre Mann looked to be a big part of Charlotte’s game plan early in the season, averaging 14.1 points across 24.5 minutes per night in his first 13 games. However, he suffered a season-ending back injury in November, and his future with the team seems to be shrouded in mystery, according to Boone. Mann is eligible to be a restricted free agent this summer.
  • In order to have a chance against the defending champion Celtics, the Magic will need to get more physical, Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel writes. In another piece, the Orlando Sentinel’s Jason Beede explains why the Magic feel good about avoiding a sweep against Boston and recognize the areas where they match up favorably. “Defensive intensity is always there for us,” forward Paolo Banchero said. “We know we can hold these guys under their [scoring average]. We know we can guard them. It’s just these little runs that we let them go on is what kills us.”
  • The Heat‘s draft pick situation was in flux all season, but they ended up with the 20th overall pick via the Jimmy Butler-to-the-Warriors trade while sending their own pick to Oklahoma City as a result of making the playoffs, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald writes. “This time is the recalibration,” Heat vice president of basketball operations and assistant general manager Adam Simon said. “You find out where you’re picking. If you’re in the lottery, you go from there. But that’s not the case for us right now. And then we’re waiting for the early entry list to come out and that basically fires off the gun to start the race to the draft.”
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Southeast Notes: Young, Rozier, Love, Magic, Wizards

April 23rd, 2025 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Asked during an appearance on The Dan Patrick Show (YouTube link) about Trae Young‘s future in Atlanta, NBA insider Chris Haynes said the Hawks guard has expressed to him that he’s “down with the process” and wants to see a young Atlanta team “turn the corner.” However, while Haynes hasn’t heard anything from Young’s camp to indicate that he’s seeking a change of scenery, he acknowledged that there are “definitely teams out there who are monitoring his situation.”

Within his preview of the Hawks’ offseason, John Hollinger of The Athletic also explores what’s in store for Young and the Hawks, noting that it’s hard to get a read on the team’s direction because there are already so many individuals who have some say in the front office, even before Atlanta hires a new head of basketball operations.

In addition to team owner Tony Ressler and his son Nick Ressler, executives who have a voice in personnel decisions include general manager Onsi Saleh, assistant GM Kyle Korver, and advisers Chris Grant and Chris Emens. Tony Ressler also sometimes asks for input from people outside of the basketball operations department, including minority owner Grant Hill. According to Hollinger, Hill is viewed by some sources as Ressler’s top choice to run the front office, but seems satisfied with his USA Basketball job.

While there has been “chatter” about the possibility of the Hawks entertaining a Young trade this offseason, it remains to be seen how strong his market would be, according to Hollinger, who suggests one possible reason the team traded Dejounte Murray instead of Young a year ago was because it would’ve been more difficult to extract value for Young.

We have more from around the Southeast:

  • Terry Rozier (ankle sprain) and Kevin Love (personal reasons) will be unavailable for the Heat in Game 2 of their series vs. Cleveland on Wednesday. Head coach Erik Spoelstra says he “feels” for both players, praising Rozier for maintaining a good work ethic even when he’s out of the rotation and adding that the team is there for Love during “what he’s going through,” per Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald.
  • Rozier told reporters that he’s “super frustrated” about injuring his ankle in a scrimmage, but he said the injury is already improving and didn’t require an MRI, according to Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun Sentinel. The Heat guard described his status as “day to day.”
  • The Magic aren’t bothered by Al Horford‘s complaints about Orlando’s “extra” physicality in Game 1, including a hard foul by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope that resulted in Celtics star Jayson Tatum injuring his wrist. According to Jason Beede of The Orlando Sentinel (subscription required), head coach Jamahl Mosley said he didn’t think Caldwell-Pope deserved to be called for a flagrant foul on that play, while guard Cole Anthony said the Magic play “the right way” and aren’t trying to hurt anyone. “We’re going to keep mucking it up,” Anthony added. “You’re just giving us good feedback.”
  • The Wizards were voted the NBA’s second-worst organization in The Athletic’s latest player poll, with Brian Keefe receiving the most votes for the league’s worst coach. As Josh Robbins of The Athletic writes, those results suggest the Wizards have work to do to adjust the outside perception of the team, though veterans like Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton have said since arriving in D.C. that they’ve been pleasantly surprised by how the organization functions.
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Southeast Notes: Magic, Mitchell, Rozier, Hornets

April 21st, 2025 at 6:02pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Magic‘s role players need to be way better to challenge Boston in their first-round series, Josh Robbins of The Athletic writes.

Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner carried the offense in Orlando’s Game 1 loss, while their teammates had a combined 27 points on 10-of-30 shooting.

“They’ve got a lot on their shoulders as the offensive scorers on the team,” big man Jonathan Isaac said. “We’ve got to do a better job as role players.”

Cole Anthony believes a quicker pace would help the cause.

“We did a great job in the first half pushing the pace and crashing that glass,” he said. “The second half, we kind of got away from it as a team. So, I think if we can maintain that pace for 48 (minutes), we’ll have a chance.”

We have more from the Southeast Division:

  • Following their Game 1 loss to top seed Cleveland, the Heat realize they’re not going to win the series on talent. Instead, they’ll have to rely on grit and determination. “We got to be the hardest playing team,” Heat guard Davion Mitchell told Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald. “They’re a really good and talented team. They can score the ball with the best of them, so we got to be the hardest playing team. That’s what we got to do.”
  • Terry Rozier is out of the Heat‘s rotation but he still wound up on the injury report for Wednesday’s Game 2. Rozier suffered a left ankle sprain during an optional workout, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel tweets.
  • Brandon Miller is the only Hornets player close to untouchable status, Spotrac contributor Keith Smith opines in his offseason preview. Charlotte should try once again to seek a trade for Mark Williams and even consider moving LaMelo Ball if the right offer comes along, Smith suggests, adding that getting assets, even minor ones, for some of their other regulars to free up time for developmental players should also be a part of the team’s offseason approach.
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2025 NBA Draft Tiebreaker Results

April 21st, 2025 at 4:28pm CST by Luke Adams

Tiebreakers among teams with identical regular-season records were broken on Monday through random drawings to determine the order for this year’s draft prior to the lottery.

The results are as follows, according to a press release from the league (Twitter link):

  • Phoenix Suns (No. 9) over Portland Trail Blazers (No. 10)
    • The Suns will get one more lottery ball combination (out of 1,000) than the Trail Blazers.
    • The Suns’ pick will be sent to the Rockets.
  • Dallas Mavericks (No. 11) over Chicago Bulls (No. 12)
    • The Mavericks will get one more lottery ball combination (out of 1,000) than the Bulls.
  • Sacramento Kings (No. 13) over Atlanta Hawks (No. 14)
    • The Kings will get one more lottery ball combination (out of 1,000) than the Hawks.
    • The Kings’ pick will be sent to the Hawks if it’s outside of the top 12.
    • The Hawks’ pick will be sent to the Spurs.
  • Memphis Grizzlies (No. 18) over Milwaukee Bucks (No. 19) over Golden State Warriors (No. 20)
    • The Grizzlies’ pick will be sent to the Wizards.
    • The Bucks’ pick will be sent to the Nets.
    • The Warriors’ pick will be sent to the Heat.
  • Los Angeles Lakers (No. 22) over Indiana Pacers (No. 23) over Los Angeles Clippers (No. 24) over Denver Nuggets (No. 25)
    • The Lakers’ pick will be sent to the Hawks.
    • The Clippers’ pick will be sent to the Thunder.
    • The Nuggets’ pick will be sent to the Magic.

While the tiebreaker winner will pick ahead of the loser(s) in the first round, that order will be flipped in the second round.

For instance, the Warriors’ second-round pick (traded to the Grizzlies) will be at No. 48, followed by the Bucks’ pick (traded to Detroit) at No. 49, and the Grizzlies (traded to New York) at No. 50 — that’s the opposite of their order in the first round.

For lottery teams that finished with identical records, the second-round order is still to be determined depending on the lottery results.

For example, if Phoenix’s first-round pick (traded to Houston) stays at No. 9 and the Blazers’ first-rounder stays at No. 10, Portland’s second-round pick (traded to Toronto) would be at No. 39 and Phoenix’s (traded to Washington) would be No. 40. But if the Trail Blazers win the No. 1 overall pick on lottery night, moving ahead of Phoenix in the first round, then the Suns’ second-round pick would be No. 39, while Portland’s would be No. 40.

We’ll publish the full lottery odds and pre-lottery draft order for 2025 later tonight.

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Southeast Notes: Rozier, Mitchell, Heat, Johnson, Magic

April 20th, 2025 at 8:30pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Heat guard Terry Rozier admits it’s been a rough season but he doesn’t want to be a distraction, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald writes. Rozier didn’t get off the bench in the play-in tournament, except to cheer for his teammates, including his de facto replacement, midseason trade acquisition Davion Mitchell.

“I don’t carry bad energy with me,” said Rozier, who has one year and $26.6MM remaining on his contract. “I’m not a hater. How he’s playing, Davion, I think we’re all excited to see that. So I don’t carry bad energy with me and I love to see it.

“Even if I’m not playing, we still got to get in the playoffs and give ourselves another chance to be able to enjoy that dance at the end,” Rozier added. “I’m just happy to be a part of the process, even if I’m not playing. You never know, I could play in Game 2, 3 or 4. I know how that stuff works. Just making sure I’m staying ready. And definitely me being positive, me being a good teammate, I’m never going to change.”

We have more from the Southeast Division:

  • Speaking of Mitchell, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is happy with the way the fourth-year guard and two other major in-season acquisitions, Kyle Anderson and Andrew Wiggins, have meshed with their new teammates. “They’ve fit in very well because they want to make it work,” Spoelstra said, per Chiang. “They’re winning players, winning personalities. They each bring something a little bit different, which are things that we needed. “Davion has that defensive presence and his toughness and his passion. We love the passion that he brings to the game. Wiggs is just a very good basketball player. The things that he does lead to winning because he plays both sides of the floor. He takes pride in doing that and doing it at a high level. And then Kyle, it just takes awhile to get accustomed to how he plays.”
  • Jalen Johnson couldn’t help the Hawks during the second half of the season after suffering a torn labrum in his left shoulder. He hopes to be at full strength by next season’s opener. “That’s probably the worst feeling in the world, just not being able to be out there and go out to war with my guys,” Johnson told Lauren Williams of the Atlanta Journal Constitution. “It sucks, but sometimes you can’t control those things, and all I can do now is just do everything in my power for next year and play the whole season. That’s my goal, and I’m gonna do everything I can so I can be out there in those type of games with my teammates.”
  • Paolo Banchero racked up 36 points on Sunday but it wasn’t enough in a 103-86 loss to Boston in Game 1 of the Magic’s first-round series. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were held to a combined 33 points but Derrick White poured in 30 and Payton Pritchard tossed in 19. “That’s something that we as a team harped on coming in that they do have two main guys but it’s really the other guys that kill you,” Banchero said, per Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel (Twitter link). “I just think we have to do a better job getting those guys off the line because they really kill you from 3.”
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Magic Notes: Joseph, Banchero, Black

April 20th, 2025 at 1:45pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Veteran Magic guard Cory Joseph has enjoyed a major uptick in production with Orlando and has been a salve during the club’s playoff push, writes Jason Beede of The Orlando Sentinel. As Beede notes, the 33-year-old had been a key young contributor for the title-bound Spurs over a decade ago in 2014. Now, he’s a locker room leader on a young Magic club.

“It’s amazing,” Joseph said. “I’m blessed. The organization has been amazing to me… I’m just trying to get out there and play as hard as I can to repay them for what they did for me.”

Joseph wasn’t even on a team heading into last year’s playoffs. He was sent to Indiana from Golden State at the 2024 trade deadline, but was promptly waived. This year, he seems to have found a happy home in Orlando.

With All-Defensive guard Jalen Suggs out for the season, Joseph was pressed into service as a starter for 15 of the team’s last 16 games. In those bouts, Orlando posted an 11-4 record. Joseph logged averages of 6.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.7 assists across 22.2 minutes per night.

There’s more out of Orlando:

  • All-Star Magic forward Paolo Banchero reflected on the challenge of facing off against fellow former Duke Blue Devil Jayson Tatum‘s Celtics in the latest chapter of his season-long diary, as told to Marc J. Spears of Andscape. “They’re in the Eastern Conference finals damn near every year,” Banchero told Spears. “We’ve had success against them in the regular season and throughout my time here, but playoffs is a different ballgame. They’re going to be ready. They are part of a championship team so they are not going to lay down. You have to match their level of intensity. You know the challenge they present. They got talent all over the floor. So, it’s going to take a special effort from us to beat them.”
  • Second-year Magic wing Anthony Black has been trending in the right direction ahead of Orlando’s playoff run, writes Beede in another Orlando Sentinel story. Across Orlando’s last 12 contests of the regular season, including nine victories, Black posted averages of 12.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.3 APG and 1.4 SPG while shooting 35.9% shooting from distance. “I feel like back half of the season I’ve been shooting the ball better, playing better overall,” Black said. “That game was a must-win so it’s good to have a little bit of success in those games, but the playoffs are different.”
  • In case you missed it, Magic guard Cole Anthony seems to be stabilizing following an up-and-down regular season just in time for the playoffs. He notched 26 points and dished out six dimes while helping the Magic defeat the Hawks during their play-in tournament encounter on Tuesday.
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Southeast Notes: Anthony, Wizards, Heat Play-In

April 17th, 2025 at 8:34pm CST by Tristan Tucker

Cole Anthony played a starring role in Orlando’s play-in victory over Atlanta on Tuesday, Josh Robbins of The Athletic writes. He scored 26 points and six assists to clinch the seventh seed for the Magic.

As Robbins writes, Anthony had a roller-coaster season in 2024/25, seeing his role fluctuate frequently as he averaged a career-low 18.4 minutes per game, so it was rewarding for him to help secure their spot in the playoffs.

“It’s been up-and-down for him,” head coach Jamahl Mosley said. “But just his energy, his spark, his juice, what he provides for this team coming off that bench, he plays fearlessly and that’s how we need him to continue to play.”

Now, the Magic are preparing for a first-round series against the 61-win Celtics.

“It was awesome, and we need that from him, to be ready and plug in and give us instant offense like that and just make the right play,” teammate Franz Wagner said.

We have more from the Southeast Division:

  • Even though they won just 18 games, this was a successful season from a developmental perspective for the Wizards. Three rookies — Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George — started a significant number of games while players like Bilal Coulibaly showed signs of development. In a piece exploring learnings from the season, Varun Shankar of The Washington Post pinpoints Justin Champagnie as a valuable player but writes that players like Richaun Holmes and Malcolm Brogdon might be on the way out in the offseason.
  • In his offseason preview for the Wizards, Keith Smith of Spotrac writes that players like Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart might have value for contending teams this offseason due to their contracts set to expire in 2026. In potential trade scenarios involving those players, the Wizards could take back long-term salary. Brogdon will be a free agent and the Wizards could theoretically involve him in a sign-and-trade while getting a minor asset in return. Outside of that, the Wizards will keep adding to their young core. Smith writes that AJ Johnson and Tristan Vukcevic are two young players in house to watch for bigger roles next year.
  • The Warriors‘ play-in victory over the Grizzlies ensures the Heat will receive Golden State’s first-round pick in June, which will be either 18th, 19th or 20th overall, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes. That pick order will be determined by random drawing. Golden State’s pick was top-10 protected. Whether or not the Heat hang onto their own first-round pick will hinge on whether or not they beat Atlanta on Friday.
  • The Heat defeated the Bulls in the play-in tournament for the third straight year, with Tyler Herro serving as a major offensive catalyst, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald writes. Pelle Larsson, who played many minutes toward the end of the season in a starting role, returned from an ankle injury and was available on Wednesday, but didn’t play. Forward Nikola Jovic is also close to making his return after not playing since late February. He was upgraded to questionable for the first time since then and could potentially return in the playoffs.
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2024/25 All-NBA G League Teams Announced

April 17th, 2025 at 1:14pm CST by Rory Maher

In a series of tweets, the NBA has announced the three All-NBA G League teams for the 2024/25 season. Here’s the full list of honorees:

First Team

Second Team

Third Team

* Denotes two-way contract

^ Denotes standard contract

~ On a standard contract with the Cavaliers

While each player selected has some level of NBA experience, four of them — Flynn, Nowell, Brown and Warren — are currently free agents. Of that group, only Warren didn’t appear in an NBA regular season game during the ’24/25 campaign.

Davison, Tshiebwe and Nowell finished first, second and third in voting (in that order) for this season’s G League Most Valuable Player award, so it’s no surprise that they made the First Team. McClung, who was the league’s 2023/24 MVP, helped Osceola make the NBAGL Finals this spring, with the final spot going to former Pistons guard Flynn, who signed a 10-day contract with Charlotte last month.

Mason Jones recently helped Stockton win its first G League title, earning Finals MVP in the process. He’s joined on the Second Team by NBAGL Most Improved Player Harkless, McGowens, Brown, and Timme.

Former first-round pick Okeke signed a pair of 10-day contracts with Philadelphia before signing with Cleveland ahead of the playoffs. NBA veteran Warren, G League Rookie of the Year Alexander, Heat two-way guard Christopher, and Kings big man Jones round out the Third Team.

Davison and Isaac Jones were promoted from two-way deals to standard contracts at the end of the season. Timme was an NBA free agent before Brooklyn gave him a two-year standard contract in March due to his strong play in the NBAGL.

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Poll: Who Will Win Tuesday’s Play-In Games?

April 15th, 2025 at 8:24am CST by Luke Adams

The Grizzlies were tied for second place in the West as recently as March 14, while the Warriors held a top-five spot in the conference for the entire first week of April. However, neither Memphis nor Golden State was able to lock up a guaranteed playoff spot in the final days of the regular season.

The two teams will face one another on Tuesday in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 play-in game for the Western Conference, with the winner earning the right to enter the playoffs as the seventh seed and match up with Houston in round one.

Although the Warriors and Grizzlies finished the season with matching 48-34 records, the two clubs were headed in opposite directions down the stretch.

Hours after finalizing a trade for Jimmy Butler on February 6, Golden State fell to 25-26 on the season and held the No. 10 seed in the West only by a tiebreaker. But the Warriors won Butler’s debut two days later and never fell below .500 again, finishing the season on a 23-8 run. During that stretch, Golden State had the NBA’s third-best winning percentage (.742), eight-best offensive rating (118.2) and top defensive rating (109.0).

The Warriors aren’t entering the postseason as one of the title favorites, having stumbled a little as of late — they would have clinched a playoff berth already if they hadn’t lost three of their last five games, including a disappointing defeat to the lottery-bound Spurs last Wednesday. But they’ve certainly looked better than the Grizzlies, whose season has been trending downward in recent months.

On the day of the trade deadline, the Grizzlies had a 35-16 record. But two days later, on the same day the Warriors won Butler’s debut, Memphis lost to Oklahoma City to kick off an uninspiring stretch that saw the team finish the season by going just 13-18. Lottery teams like Portland and Toronto had better records during that stretch than the Grizzlies, who ranked in the bottom half of the league in both offensive rating (115.6) and defensive rating (116.0) from Feb. 8 onward.

Oh, and Memphis also made a head coaching change during that time, replacing Taylor Jenkins with assistant Tuomas Iisalo on March 28. The Grizzlies have a 4-5 record since that change.

The Grizzlies have plenty of talent on their roster and Warriors stars Stephen Curry (thumb) and Butler (thigh) are dealing with nagging ailments, so the result of Tuesday’s Western Conference play-in game is hardly a foregone conclusion. Still, after accounting for the Warriors’ 3-1 record vs. Memphis this season and the fact that they’ll be hosting Tuesday’s play-in game in San Francisco, it’s not hard to understand why Golden State is considered a good bet to advance — BetOnline.ag has the Warriors listed as seven-point favorites.

Over in the East, it’s a battle of the year’s top Southeast teams on Tuesday, as the No. 7 Magic (41-41) host the No. 8 Hawks (40-42). The winner will claim the seventh seed and face Boston in the first round of the playoffs.

It has been an odd season in Orlando, where the Magic looked like one of the conference’s top teams in early going despite losing Paolo Banchero and then Franz Wagner to oblique tears that sidelined them for extended periods. But the Magic’s injury issues – which also ended Jalen Suggs‘ and Moritz Wagner‘s seasons early – eventually caught up with them, resulting in a 12-26 midseason swoon from December to March that cost the team a chance at a top-six seed.

Orlando finished the year strong, winning nine of its last 12 games, and performed very well defensively on the season as a whole, registering the league’s second-best defensive rating (109.1). But even with Banchero and Wagner on the court, the Magic struggled to score — their 108.9 offensive rating ranked 27th in the NBA, ahead of only Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Washington.

The Hawks, meanwhile, appeared to be in trouble when rising star forward Jalen Johnson went down in January with a season-ending shoulder injury. They were 22-22 as of Johnson’s last game and promptly fell several games below .500 without him before trading away second-leading scorer De’Andre Hunter at the trade deadline shortly thereafter.

But instead of continuing to slide down the standings and ending up in the lottery, Atlanta got a second wind, led by Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, Dyson Daniels, and Zaccharie Risacher, along with deadline additions like Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, and Terance Mann.

As good as Daniels has been defensively this season, the Hawks’ overall team defense has lagged behind — it was their offense that propelled them to a spot in the No. 7 vs. 8 play-in game. From March 6 onward, Atlanta went 12-8 and posted the second-best offensive rating in the Eastern Conference (120.4).

Tuesday’s matchup, in which the Magic are listed as five-point favorites, per BetOnline, could come down to how much headway the Hawks’ offensive weapons can make against one of the NBA’s best defensive units in Orlando.

We want to know what you think. Which two teams will claim playoff spots on Tuesday and which ones will have to try again on Friday to punch their tickets into round one?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions.

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