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2022 NBA Draft Lottery Primer

May 17th, 2022 at 6:47am CST by Luke Adams

The 2022 NBA draft lottery will take place on Tuesday night prior to Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Celtics. The half-hour event will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 7:00 pm central time.

This year’s draft pool features a group of four prospects generally considered by experts to be a level above the rest of the class: Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero, and Jaden Ivey. Teams that move into the top four on Tuesday night will have the opportunity to snag one of those potential future stars.

Here’s what you need to know heading into tonight’s lottery:

Pre-Lottery Draft Order:

The top 14 picks in the 2022 NBA draft would look like this if tonight’s lottery results don’t change the order:

  1. Houston Rockets
  2. Orlando Magic
  3. Detroit Pistons
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder
  5. Indiana Pacers
  6. Portland Trail Blazers
  7. Sacramento Kings
  8. New Orleans Pelicans (from Lakers)
    • Note: The Grizzlies will receive this pick if it falls to No. 11 or No. 12.
  9. San Antonio Spurs
  10. Washington Wizards
  11. New York Knicks
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
  13. Charlotte Hornets
  14. Cleveland Cavaliers

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft Lottery Odds:

The Rockets, Magic, Pistons, and Thunder have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those four teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

Typically, only the top three teams in the lottery standings would have a 14.0% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, but the Thunder join that group by virtue of holding two lottery picks — there’s a 12.5% chance that their own pick will move up to No. 1 and a 1.5% chance the Clippers’ pick, which they also control, will be No. 1.

From there, the Pacers (10.5%), Trail Blazers (9.0%), Kings (7.5%), and Pelicans (6.0%) have the best odds to receive the first overall pick.

For the full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, click here.

Trades Affecting The Draft Lottery:

The Clippers and Lakers are the only non-playoff teams that have traded away their lottery picks this year, and neither team put protections on its traded first-rounder.

The Thunder will receive the Clippers’ pick, as detailed above.

The Lakers’ pick technically still remains up for grabs, depending on the lottery results, due to a trade between New Orleans and Memphis. Here are the details on that deal:

Pelicans/Grizzlies

The Pelicans will acquire the Lakers’ pick if it lands in the top 10, while the Grizzlies will receive it if it ends up at No. 11 or 12.

Since the Lakers finished eighth in the lottery standings, there’s approximately a 99.5% chance that New Orleans will hang onto the pick. At least three teams in the 9-14 range would have to jump into the top four in order for Memphis to receive it.

Draft Lottery Representatives:

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

  1. Houston Rockets
    • On stage: Rafael Stone (general manager)
    • Lottery room: Clay Allen (general counsel)
  2. Orlando Magic

    • On stage: Jeff Weltman (president of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: Joel Glass (chief communications officer)
  3. Detroit Pistons

    • On stage: Richard Hamilton (former Pistons player)
    • Lottery room: George David (assistant GM)
  4. Oklahoma City Thunder

    • On stage: Nick Collison (former Thunder player / special assistant to GM)
    • Lottery room: Sam Presti (executive VP / general manager)
  5. Indiana Pacers

    • On stage: Kelly Krauskopf (assistant GM)
    • Lottery room: Chad Buchanan (general manager)
  6. Portland Trail Blazers

    • On stage: Damian Lillard
    • Lottery room: Dewayne Hankins (president of business operations)
  7. Sacramento Kings

  8. New Orleans Pelicans

    • On stage: Swin Cash-Canal (VP of basketball operations)
    • Lottery room: David Griffin (executive VP of basketball operations)
  9. San Antonio Spurs

    • On stage: David Robinson (former Spurs player / strategic partner)
    • Lottery room: Niraj Mulji (director of basketball strategy)
  10. Washington Wizards

    • On stage: Wes Unseld Jr. (head coach)
    • Lottery room: Tommy Sheppard (president of basketball operations / general manager)
  11. New York Knicks
    • On stage: William Wesley (executive VP / senior basketball advisor)
    • Lottery room: Brock Aller (VP of basketball and strategic planning)
  12. Charlotte Hornets
  13. Cleveland Cavaliers

    • On stage: Anderson Varejao (former Cavaliers player / team ambassador)
    • Lottery room: Jon Nichols (VP of basketball strategy and personnel)

Lottery Format:

This will be the fourth year that the NBA uses its revamped lottery system, which reduces the odds that the league’s very worst teams will land a top pick and makes the top four selections available via the lottery, instead of the top three.

Before the NBA changed its lottery format, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick, and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

The results since the new format was implemented have shown that the smoothed-out odds have the potential to create a little more mayhem on lottery night.

In 2019, the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers claimed three of the top four picks despite ranking seventh, eighth, and 11th, respectively, in the lottery standings. In 2020, the Hornets and Bulls each moved up four spots, from Nos. 7 and 8 to Nos. 3 and 4, respectively.

A year ago, the results were more by-the-numbers. However, the seventh spot in the lottery standings was lucky again, this time for the Raptors, who moved up to No. 4 and grabbed eventual Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes.

For full details on the revamped lottery format, click here.

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Bol Still Doing Rehab Work After Foot Surgery: Isaac Discusses Vaccine Decision

May 15th, 2022 at 10:00am CST by Arthur Hill

Hawks guard Trae Young has adopted a new offseason routine this year, writes Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Instead of taking his usual month off, Young was back in the gym a week after Atlanta’s loss to Miami in its first-round series. He’s undertaking a workout regimen that he plans to continue through the NBA Finals, explaining, “because that’s where I want to play.”

“I think it’s gotta be,” Young said. “It’s happened for a lot of the guys who’ve won championships and all the big-time players that’s come before me, throughout this whole league. Everybody has to go through something to push through, to get to that next step. I think this could be that thing.”

The Heat were able to rattle Young by attacking him with multiple defenders, leading to subpar numbers throughout the series. He averaged 15.4 points and 6.2 turnovers in the five games while shooting 31.9% from the field and 18.4% from three-point range.

“I think this is just a learning experience in the early chapter stage of my career that I needed to go through,” Young said. “The Heat did a great job, their defensive schemes, placement, where their guys were, switching it up, making it difficult. Just looking back at some of the mistakes I had, I know I’m going to learn from them, and it’s only going to make me better, and I think that’s a scary thing, if I’m young and I still have a lot to grow from. I think it’s a good thing that I can learn from it.”

There’s more from the Southeast Division:

  • Magic big man Bol Bol is continuing rehab work on his injured right foot that required surgery in January, according to Khobi Price of The Orlando Sentinel. Bol wasn’t able to play for Orlando after being acquired in a February deal, and he’ll be a free agent this summer. The Magic can make him restricted by extending a $2.7MM qualifying offer, and it sounds like the team still believes in his future. “Bol’s working very hard,” president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said. “He’s working diligently. He’s working every day. He continues to ramp up. He’s just doing individual work right now. We’re going to be careful with him as we are with everyone to make sure he doesn’t skip steps in his rehabilitation.”
  • Speaking as part of the ReAwaken America Tour, Magic forward Jonathan Isaac explained his decision not to get the COVID-19 vaccine, per Johnny Askounis of EuroHoops. “Viewing it, it seemed forced. It seemed that there was so much pressure in doing it,” Isaac said. “I don’t see the wisdom in putting something into my body that’s not going to stop me from getting the virus or transmitting it. That is why I decided to be the only player on my team to not get vaccinated.”
  • First-year coach Wes Unseld Jr. has been selected to represent the Wizards at Tuesday’s draft lottery, the team tweeted this week. Washington has a 3% chance of landing the first pick and a 13.9% chance of moving into the top four.
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Examining Magic's Potential Roster Next Season

May 14th, 2022 at 2:41pm CST by JD Shaw
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Isaac's Salaries No Longer Fully Guaranteed

May 13th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams
  • Because of the injury-related language and games-played requirements in Jonathan Isaac‘s contract with the Magic, his $17.4MM annual salaries for the next three years are now partially guaranteed instead of fully guaranteed, as Keith Smith of Spotrac tweets. Isaac has missed two straight seasons due to an ACL tear, but there’s no indication that the Magic are considering waiving him, which is the only way they could avoid paying his full salaries.
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Atlantic Notes: Reddish, Knicks, Williams, Maxey

May 12th, 2022 at 10:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Forward Cam Reddish has been at the Knicks’ training center over the past week and has started basketball activities, including light shooting, Marc Berman of the New York Post reports.

Reddish, who was acquired by the Knicks from Atlanta in January, saw his season end prematurely in early March when he suffered a separated right shoulder. As a former first-round pick entering his fourth season, Reddish is eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer.

In 15 games (14.3 MPG) with the Knicks, Reddish put up modest totals of 6.1 PPG and 1.4 RPG on .415/.258/.906 shooting.

We have more from the Atlantic Division:

  • The realistic goal for the Knicks to upgrade their roster is to put the pieces in place to trade for a top-level player, according to John Hollinger of The Athletic. In terms of the draft, if the Knicks don’t move up in the lottery, Hollinger believes they ought to target Australian guard Dyson Daniels. Daniels who played in the G League has a pass-first mentality and the ability to guard multiple positions.
  • Celtics center Robert Williams is listed as questionable for Friday’s Game 6 against the Bucks, Jared Weiss tweets. Williams averaged 23.3 MPG in the first three games of the series but sat out the last two games.
  • Tyrese Maxey was surprised he slipped to No. 21 in the 2020 draft, the spot where the Sixers snapped him up, as he told Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports. He thought he might go as high as No. 11 to the Spurs. He also thought the Magic at No. 15 and the Heat at No. 20 would take him. “Miami, Orlando and San Antonio. Those were the three teams I thought would draft me,” Maxey said. “When I started slipping, I was upset, but I kept reminding myself that my dream of getting drafted was coming true.”
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R.J. Hampton's Role Changed In Second Season

May 7th, 2022 at 5:17pm CST by Arthur Hill
  • Magic guard R.J. Hampton improved in some areas but regressed in others as he was asked to adapt to a new role this season, observes Khobi Price of The Orlando Sentinel. The addition of lottery pick Jalen Suggs and the late-season comeback by Markelle Fultz meant Hampton didn’t handle the ball as much as he did after Orlando acquired him in a trade midway through his rookie season. He also became less efficient in finishing at the rim, which caused his scoring average to fall to 7.6 PPG after averaging 11.2 PPG last year in 26 games with the Magic.
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Gary Harris Found Rhythm In Time For Free Agency

May 7th, 2022 at 1:20pm CST by JD Shaw
  • Magic guard Gary Harris found his rhythm as the season came to a close, something that could help him in free agency, Khobi Price of the Orlando Sentinel writes. Harris is set to become an unrestricted free agent. He averaged 11.1 points per game with Orlando this season, shooting 43% from the floor and 38% from deep. The 27-year-old has played eight NBA seasons.
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Jalen Suggs Undergoes Right Ankle Surgery

May 2nd, 2022 at 9:37am CST by Luke Adams

Rookie guard Jalen Suggs underwent surgery last week on his right ankle, according to the Magic, who announced in a press release that the procedure repaired a “slight” stress fracture in the ankle.

The team didn’t announce an exact recovery timeline for Suggs, but said he’s expected to resume basketball activities this summer and make a full recovery by the start of training camp in the fall.

“In assessing Jalen’s right ankle at the conclusion of the season, and consulting with multiple doctors, we came to the determination to undergo this preventative measure,” president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said in a statement. “We feel by addressing this now Jalen can still have a productive summer leading into training camp.”

It’s unclear how the injury might have affected Suggs’ play in his rookie year. He missed time due to a right ankle sprain and a right ankle bone bruise in the second half of the season.

The No. 5 pick in last year’s draft, Suggs had perhaps the most underwhelming rookie season of any player selected in the top 10, averaging 11.8 PPG, 4.4 APG, and 3.6 RPG with a subpar .361/.214/.773 shooting line in 48 games (27.2 MPG). Besides the ankle issue, the former Gonzaga standout also dealt with a fractured right thumb that cost him 20 games in December and January.

Suggs is still just 20 years old and was highly regarded coming out of college, so the Magic certainly still view him as an important part of their future and will look for him to take a step forward in his second season. It doesn’t sound as if his 2022/23 debut will be delayed at all by last week’s surgery.

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