Over/Unders

Over the past couple weeks, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2024/25 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Celtics (58.5) all the way through to the Nets (19.5).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

• Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
• New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
• Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
• Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
• Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Central

• Milwaukee Bucks (50.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (48.5 wins): Under (51.6%)
• Indiana Pacers (47.5 wins): Over (57.2%)
• Chicago Bulls (28.5 wins): Under (61.9%)
• Detroit Pistons (24.5 wins): Over (60.2%)

Southeast

• Orlando Magic (47.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
• Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
• Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): Under (66.4%)
• Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
• Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Under (56.6%)

Western Conference

Northwest

• Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 wins): Over (68.1%)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (52.5 wins): Over (65.2%)
• Denver Nuggets (51.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
• Utah Jazz (29.5 wins): Under (60.1%)
• Portland Trail Blazers (22.5 wins): Under (54.7%)

Pacific

• Phoenix Suns (50.5 wins): Over (57.6%)
• Sacramento Kings (47.5 wins): Over (62.5%)
• Golden State Warriors (44.5 wins): Under (54.4%)
• Los Angeles Lakers (43.5 wins): Under (51.9%)
• Los Angeles Clippers (39.5 wins): Under (50.8%)

Southwest

• Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
• Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
• New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
• Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  
• San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

In total, our poll respondents favored 13 overs and 17 unders, which is an interesting divide. In past years, there have been more “over” votes than “under” votes, but it appears our readers are less willing to buy into preseason optimism for certain clubs this time around. The Southeast and Southwest fared particularly poorly in this regard, with eight of the 10 votes in those divisions favoring the under.

These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): 78.0%
2. Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): 69.7%
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 wins): 68.1%
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (52.5 wins): 65.2%
5. Milwaukee Bucks (50.5 wins): 63.2%

The top four teams here all have something in common: Dallas (50 wins in 2023/24), Boston (64), Oklahoma City (57), and Minnesota (56) would all go “over” if they simply replicate their records from last season. And in most cases, that looks like a realistic goal — the Mavericks and Thunder arguably improved as a result of their offseason moves, while Boston’s roster looks pretty similar and Minnesota’s losses (including Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris) may not be enough to warrant a four-game drop.

Still, winning 57 games in the competitive West will be no easy feat for Oklahoma City, and winning 59 is a grind even for the best team in a weak conference — the ’23/24 Celtics were the first Eastern Conference club to win 59+ since Milwaukee racked up 60 victories in ’18/19.

Speaking of the Bucks, our voters appear confident in their ability to bounce back after a disappointing season that saw them experience some growing pains following last September’s Damian Lillard blockbuster and make an in-season coaching change. A full offseason and training camp with Lillard and head coach Doc Rivers is a reason for optimism in Milwaukee.

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): 66.4%
2. Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): 65.6%
3. Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): 63.1%
4. Miami Heat (44.5 wins): 63.1%
5. Chicago Bulls (28.5 wins): 61.9%

The Hawks only won 36 games last season, so it’s perhaps no surprise that our voters aren’t enthusiastic about their odds of matching that total again in 2024/25 after trading away Dejounte Murray. I do think the offense could fit together better without Trae Young having to share ball-handling duties with Murray, but for the Hawks to match or exceed last year’s win total, they’ll likely need young players like Jalen Johnson and Dyson Daniels to take significant steps forward.

The Grizzlies are a fascinating case. They went just 27-55 last season, but were the NBA’s most injury-plagued team and will have several key players – led by Ja Morant – back this fall. This year’s roster isn’t quite the same as the one that won 56 games in 2021/22 and 51 in ’22/23, but it’s close enough that I was a little surprised not to see more votes for the “over.”

The Hornets are a poor man’s version of Memphis, with oddsmakers projecting a nice bump on last year’s 21-61 record with starters like LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams once again healthy. Our voters aren’t so sure.

The Heat went 46-36 last year, but lost Caleb Martin and didn’t add any major pieces. Jimmy Butler‘s contract situation is also a question mark — it’s not out of the question that he could be a trade candidate at February’s deadline if the first half doesn’t go well in Miami.

The Bulls won 39 games last season but lost DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso over the offseason and are expected to seek takers for Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic too. If they turn into second-half tankers, their under looks like a pretty safe bet.

Here are the five picks that were closest to 50/50:

1. Los Angeles Clippers (39.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
2. Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (48.5 wins): Under (51.6%)
4. Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
5. Los Angeles Lakers (43.5 wins): Under (51.9%)

The fact that all five of the closest votes favored the “under” helps explain why we ended up with 17 unders overall.

The Clippers and Sixers are the most interesting cases here, since subtracting Paul George in Los Angeles and adding him in Philadelphia will make both teams look a whole lot different. It’s hard to get a feel of what both clubs might look like until we see them in action.

The Rockets, Cavaliers, and Lakers, on the other hand, are all pretty similar to last year’s versions. Oddsmakers are projecting a small step forward for the young Rockets (who went 41-41 last year), a step back for the veteran Lakers (who went 47-35), and essentially the same season for Cleveland (48-34).

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!

Before the 2023/24 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Celtics (55.5 wins) to the Wizards (24.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the seventh year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three seasons, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record and went 16-14 in each of the next two seasons. Did that winning streak extend to four straight years in ’23/24? Let’s check in on the results and find out…

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

• Boston Celtics (Over 55.5 wins): ✅ (64-18)
• Philadelphia 76ers (Under 48.5 wins): ✅ (47-35)
• New York Knicks (Over 45.5 wins): ✅ (50-32)
• Brooklyn Nets (Over 37.5 wins): ❌ (32-50)
• Toronto Raptors (Over 36.5 wins): ❌ (25-57)

Central

• Milwaukee Bucks (Over 54.5 wins): ❌ (49-33)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (Under 50.5 wins): ✅ (48-34)
• Indiana Pacers (Over 38.5 wins): ✅ (47-35)
• Chicago Bulls (Under 37.5 wins): ❌ (39-43)
• Detroit Pistons (Over 27.5 wins): ❌ (14-68)

Southeast

• Miami Heat (Under 46.5 wins): ✅ (46-36)
• Atlanta Hawks (Under 42.5 wins): ✅ (36-46)
• Orlando Magic (Over 37.5 wins): ✅ (47-35)
• Charlotte Hornets (Under 31.5 wins): ✅ (21-61)
• Washington Wizards (Over 24.5 wins): ❌ (15-67)

Eastern Conference record: 9-6

For a second straight year, our readers exhibited a strong feel for the Southeast division, nailing four of those five picks. That success in the Southeast helped secure a strong overall Eastern Conference record despite big whiffs on teams like the Raptors and Pistons.

Western Conference

Northwest

• Denver Nuggets (Over 53.5 wins): ✅ (57-25)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (Over 44.5 wins): ✅ (56-26)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (Under 44.5 wins): ❌ (57-25)
• Utah Jazz (Over 35.5 wins): ❌ (31-51)
• Portland Trail Blazers (Under 28.5 wins): ✅ (21-61)

Pacific

• Phoenix Suns (Under 52.5 wins): ✅ (49-33)
• Golden State Warriors (Over 48.5 wins): ❌ (46-36)
• Los Angeles Lakers (Over 47.5 wins): ❌ (47-35)
• Los Angeles Clippers (Under 46.5 wins): ❌ (51-31)
• Sacramento Kings (Over 44.5 wins): ✅ (46-36)

Southwest

• Memphis Grizzlies (Under 46.5 wins): ✅ (27-55)
• New Orleans Pelicans (Under 44.5 wins): ❌ (49-33)
• Dallas Mavericks (Under 44.5 wins): ❌ (50-32)
• Houston Rockets (Over 31.5 wins): ✅ (41-41)
• San Antonio Spurs (Over 28.5 wins): ❌ (22-60)

Western Conference record: 7-8

Our voters had some bad luck in a few cases, with teams like the Warriors and Lakers falling just shy of their projected win totals. There were also some more glaring misses, including on the Thunder, but those were balanced out with nice calls on the defending champion Nuggets, the rejuvenated Rockets, and injury-plagued teams like the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies.

Overall record: 16-14

For the fourth season in a row, our voters finished above .500 in their over/under picks! That’s a pretty impressive streak, given how unpredictable the NBA can be on a year-to-year basis.

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

In the weeks leading up to the regular season, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2023/24 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Celtics (55.5) all the way through to the Wizards (24.5).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

• Boston Celtics (55.5 wins): Over (67.6%)
• Philadelphia 76ers (48.5 wins): Under (54.9%)
• New York Knicks (45.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
• Brooklyn Nets (37.5 wins): Over (53.1%)
• Toronto Raptors (36.5 wins): Over (56.9%)

Central

• Milwaukee Bucks (54.5 wins): Over (76.9%)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (50.5 wins): Under (52.0%)
• Indiana Pacers (38.5 wins): Over (64.1%)
• Chicago Bulls (37.5 wins): Under (61.9%)
• Detroit Pistons (27.5 wins): Over (53.8%)

Southeast

• Miami Heat (46.5 wins): Under (59.0%)
• Atlanta Hawks (42.5 wins): Under (61.1%)
• Orlando Magic (37.5 wins): Over (60.7%)
• Charlotte Hornets (31.5 wins): Under (65.8%)
• Washington Wizards (24.5 wins): Over (53.3%)

Western Conference

Northwest

• Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (52.0%)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (44.5 wins): Over (53.1%)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (44.5 wins): Under (53.6%)
• Utah Jazz (35.5 wins): Over (55.5%)
• Portland Trail Blazers (28.5 wins): Under (50.9%)

Pacific

• Phoenix Suns (52.5 wins): Under (52.6%)
• Golden State Warriors (48.5 wins): Over (52.7%)
• Los Angeles Lakers (47.5 wins): Over (57.2%)
• Los Angeles Clippers (46.5 wins): Under (64.6%)
• Sacramento Kings (44.5 wins): Over (71.3%)

Southwest

• Memphis Grizzlies (46.5 wins): Under (52.1%)
• New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Under (60.8%)
• Dallas Mavericks (44.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
• Houston Rockets (31.5 wins): Over (59.2%)
• San Antonio Spurs (28.5 wins): Over (54.4%)

In total, our poll respondents favored 17 overs and 13 unders.

That’s a pretty typical divide, even though the combined projected wins of all 30 teams add up to 1,256 (there will be 1,230 games won this season). It’s easier at this time of the year to be bullish on a team’s offseason upgrades and envision a best-case scenario than it will be a few weeks into the regular season.

These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Milwaukee Bucks (54.5 wins): 76.9%
2. Sacramento Kings (44.5 wins): 71.3%
3. Boston Celtics (55.5 wins): 67.6%
4. Indiana Pacers (38.5 wins): 64.1%
5. Orlando Magic (37.5 wins): 60.7%

A vote share of over three-quarters for the Bucks’ over is pretty remarkable, given that their 54.5 projected wins represent this season’s second-highest total (the Celtics are No. 1, with 55.5).

While I certainly understand the enthusiasm for the addition of Damian Lillard to an already strong roster led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, it can sometimes take teams a little time to adjust to major changes like that one, and the Bucks will be prioritizing the playoffs over the regular season. It’ll be interesting to see how many wins they rack up.

In addition to being high on the top teams in the East – Milwaukee and Boston – our poll respondents don’t expect Sacramento to take much of a step back after winning 48 games last season for the first time since 2004/05. They’re also optimistic about the opportunity for two lottery teams in the East – Indiana and Orlando – to take a step forward in 2023/24.

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Charlotte Hornets (31.5 wins): 65.8%
2. Los Angeles Clippers (46.5 wins): 64.6%
3. Chicago Bulls (37.5 wins): 61.9%
4. Atlanta Hawks (42.5 wins): 61.1%
5. New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): 60.8%

In theory, with Miles Bridges back on the roster and LaMelo Ball healthy again, the Hornets are poised for a bounce-back season after a disappointing 2022/23 campaign that saw them drop from 43 wins to 27. But Bridges is already in legal trouble again and our readers clearly aren’t confident enough in the rest of Charlotte’s roster to expect much from them.

The injury histories of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Zion Williamson, and Brandon Ingram are presumably a major factor in our poll respondents’ pessimism about the Clippers and Pelicans. And while our readers are enthusiastic about Indiana and Orlando, they’re cooler on two other middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference playoff contenders in Chicago and Atlanta.

Here are the five picks that were closest to 50/50:

1. Dallas Mavericks (44.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
2. Portland Trail Blazers (28.5 wins): Under (50.9%)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (50.5 wins): Under (52.0%)
4. Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (52.0%)
5. Memphis Grizzlies (46.5 wins): Under (52.1%)

The Mavericks spiraled following the acquisition of Kyrie Irving last season, even though he played well alongside Luka Doncic. Our poll respondents are almost exactly split on whether those late-season struggles will carry over to this season or whether Dallas will bounce back.

I’m not surprised to see the Trail Blazers show up here — following the Lillard trade, they’re clearly in retooling mode, but there’s also a decent amount of talent on the roster, including Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, Anfernee Simons, and a rookie who could make an immediate impact, Scoot Henderson. There are a wide range of realistic outcomes for their season.

The Cavaliers and Nuggets are expected to be very good teams, but there’s a difference in opinions over just how many wins that success will translate to. As for the Grizzlies, I imagine voters would more heavily favor their under if we held a vote again today, given Sunday’s news of Steven Adams‘ season-ending knee surgery.

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!