Over/Unders

Before the 2022/23 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Celtics (55.5 wins) to the Thunder (22.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the sixth year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three seasons, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record and went 16-14 in ’21/22. Will that winning streak carry over to ’22/23? Let’s check in on the results and find out…

Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

• Boston Celtics (Under 55.5 wins): ❌ (57-25)
• Brooklyn Nets (Under 51.5 wins): ✅ (45-37)
• Philadelphia 76ers (Over 50.5 wins): ✅ (54-28)
• Toronto Raptors (Over 46.5 wins): ❌ (41-41)
• New York Knicks (Under 40.5 wins): ❌ (47-35)

Central:

• Milwaukee Bucks (Over 52.5 wins): ✅ (58-24)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (Over 47.5 wins): ✅ (51-31)
• Chicago Bulls (Over 44.5 wins): ❌ (40-42)
• Detroit Pistons (Over 28.5 wins): ❌ (17-65)
• Indiana Pacers (Under 23.5 wins): ❌ (35-47)

Southeast:

• Miami Heat (Under 50.5 wins): ✅ (44-38)
• Atlanta Hawks (Over 46.5 wins): ❌ (41-41)
• Charlotte Hornets (Under 36.5 wins): ✅ (27-55)
• Washington Wizards (Under 35.5 wins): ✅ (35-47)
• Orlando Magic (Over 26.5 wins): ✅ (34-48)

Eastern Conference record: 8-7

Big misses on teams like the Knicks, Pistons, and Pacers contributed to losing records in the Atlantic and Central, but our readers salvaged an above-.500 overall mark in the East by nearly sweeping the Southeast — only a disappointing showing from the Hawks prevented a 5-0 record in that division.

Western Conference

Northwest:

• Denver Nuggets (Over 51.5 wins): ✅ (53-29)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (Over 49.5 wins): ❌ (42-40)
• Portland Trail Blazers (Under 40.5 wins): ✅ (33-49)
• Utah Jazz (Under 25.5 wins): ❌ (37-45)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (Over 22.5 wins): ✅ (40-42)

Pacific:

• Golden State Warriors (Over 53.5 wins): ❌ (44-38)
• Phoenix Suns (Over 53.5 wins): ❌ (45-37)
• Los Angeles Clippers (Over 52.5 wins): ❌ (44-38)
• Los Angeles Lakers (Under 45.5 wins): ✅ (43-39)
• Sacramento Kings (Over 34.5 wins): ✅ (48-34)

Southwest:

• Memphis Grizzlies (Over 49.5 wins): ✅ (51-31)
• Dallas Mavericks (Over 48.5 wins): ❌ (38-44)
• New Orleans Pelicans (Over 44.5 wins): ❌ (42-40)
• Houston Rockets (Under 24.5 wins): ✅ (22-60)
• San Antonio Spurs (Under 23.5 wins): ✅ (22-60)

Western Conference record: 8-7

The parity in the West this season didn’t help our voters. Even though the Warriors, Suns, and Clippers were among the top six teams in the conference, for instance, they all fell well short of their projected win totals. Even the Nuggets and Grizzlies, the West’s top two teams, only narrowly beat their projections, as our readers predicted.

Despite a handful of big messes in the West, including on the Timberwolves, Jazz, and Mavericks, our voters eked out a winning record in the conference with some nice calls on the overachieving Kings and Thunder and the tanking Rockets, Spurs, and Trail Blazers, among others.

Overall record: 16-14

For the third season in a row, our voters finished above .500 in their over/under picks. That’s a legitimate winning streak!

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Over the last two weeks, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2022/23 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Celtics (55.5) all the way through to the Thunder (22.5).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

• Boston Celtics (55.5 wins): Under (56.1%)
• Brooklyn Nets (51.5 wins): Under (64.5%)
• Philadelphia 76ers (50.5 wins): Over (76.1%)
• Toronto Raptors (46.5 wins): Over (65.7%)
• New York Knicks (40.5 wins): Under (63.0%)

Central

• Milwaukee Bucks (52.5 wins): Over (75.5%)
• Cleveland Cavaliers (47.5 wins): Over (73.4%)
• Chicago Bulls (44.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
• Detroit Pistons (28.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
• Indiana Pacers (23.5 wins): Under (62.8%)

Southeast

• Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
• Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
• Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
• Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
• Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Western Conference

Northwest

• Denver Nuggets (51.5 wins): Over (58.1%)
• Minnesota Timberwolves (49.5 wins): Over (64.7%)
• Portland Trail Blazers (40.5 wins): Under (57.0%)
• Utah Jazz (25.5 wins): Under (65.5%)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (22.5 wins): Over (54.2%)

Pacific

• Golden State Warriors (53.5 wins): Over (69.2%)
• Phoenix Suns (53.5 wins): Over (60.2%)
• Los Angeles Clippers (52.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
• Los Angeles Lakers (45.5 wins): Under (66.6%)
• Sacramento Kings (34.5 wins): Over (62.0%)

Southwest

• Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
• Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
• New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
• Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
• San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)

Our voters were most bullish on the Central and Pacific, picking the “over” for four of five teams in each of those two divisions. Conversely, they were bearish on the Atlantic and Southeast, choosing the “under” for three clubs in each of those divisions, including presumed contenders like the Celtics, Nets, and Heat.

In total, our voters went “over” for 18 teams and “under” for 12, which is a pretty standard divide. It’s only natural at this time of the year to view certain offseason roster changes in the most positive light, before we get a chance to see which ones will backfire. And with most teams fully healthy at this time of year, it’s also impossible to predict which clubs’ seasons might take an unfortunate downturn as a result of an injury or two.

These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. Philadelphia 76ers, 50.5 wins: 76.1%
2. Milwaukee Bucks, 52.5 wins: 75.5%
3. Cleveland Cavaliers, 47.5 wins: 73.4%
4. Golden State Warriors, 53.5 wins: 69.2%
5. Memphis Grizzlies, 49.5 wins: 68.7%

There are some interesting picks in this group. The enthusiasm for the Cavaliers is presumably related in large part due to the recent acquisition of Donovan Mitchell, which raises the team’s ceiling in a major way. But the Sixers, Bucks, Warriors, and Grizzlies didn’t make any additions nearly that significant this offseason — Philadelphia’s signing of P.J. Tucker is perhaps the most impactful short-term acquisition made by any of those clubs.

In the cases of Milwaukee, Golden State, and Memphis in particular, it appears our voters are counting on continuity and returning talent winning out.

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

1. San Antonio Spurs, 23.5 wins: 67.5%
2. Los Angeles Lakers, 45.5 wins: 66.6%
3. Utah Jazz, 25.5 wins: 65.5%
4. Brooklyn Nets, 51.5 wins: 64.5%
5. New York Knicks, 40.5 wins: 63.0%

These teams fall into two general categories — the Spurs and Jazz are rebuilding franchises that may not mind winning only 20 games this season in order to get a shot at a top prospect like Victor Wembanyama. The Lakers, Nets, and Knicks are big-market clubs whose projections may be slightly inflated by oddsmakers in order to encourage more betting action.

Most of these picks make sense to me, though I wouldn’t feel especially confident betting on the Spurs’ under. San Antonio’s roster isn’t exactly loaded with talent, but Gregg Popovich‘s teams always seem to find a way to outperform preseason expectations.

The Lakers and Nets, conversely, have enough talent to easily exceed their projected win totals, but it’ll come down to how often their stars are able to play together. Last year, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Ben Simmons combined to miss more games (230) than they played (180).

Here are the five picks that were closest to 50/50:

1. Washington Wizards, 35.5 wins: Under (50.8%)
2. Chicago Bulls, 44.5 wins: Over (51.6%)
3. Detroit Pistons, 28.5 wins: Over (51.6%)
4. Atlanta Hawks, 46.5 wins: Over (53.6%)
5. Oklahoma City Thunder, 22.5 wins: Over (54.2%)

The splits on these teams are logical ones. We haven’t yet seen Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis play together for the Wizards. We have no idea how much Lonzo Ball will be able to play for the Bulls this season. Dejounte Murray‘s impact on the Hawks and his fit alongside Trae Young remains to be seen. And it’s unclear whether the Pistons and Thunder will once again be as bad as they were a year ago — Detroit could be ready to take a step forward, while Chet Holmgren‘s injury means Oklahoma City could be in for another long season.

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!