Revisiting 2022/23 NBA Over/Under Predictions

Before the 2022/23 NBA season got underway, we polled Hoops Rumors readers on the win totals for each of the league’s 30 teams, using over/unders from major betting sites. From the Celtics (55.5 wins) to the Thunder (22.5 wins), our readers made their picks for whether each team’s win total would land over or under the projected figures.

This is the sixth year we’ve run these polls. After finishing a little below .500 in each of the first three seasons, our voters broke through in 2020/21 with a 17-13 record and went 16-14 in ’21/22. Will that winning streak carry over to ’22/23? Let’s check in on the results and find out…


Eastern Conference

Atlantic:

  • Boston Celtics (Under 55.5 wins): (57-25)
  • Brooklyn Nets (Under 51.5 wins):  (45-37)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (Over 50.5 wins):  (54-28)
  • Toronto Raptors (Over 46.5 wins):  (41-41)
  • New York Knicks (Under 40.5 wins): (47-35)

Central:

  • Milwaukee Bucks (Over 52.5 wins): (58-24)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (Over 47.5 wins):  (51-31)
  • Chicago Bulls (Over 44.5 wins):  (40-42)
  • Detroit Pistons (Over 28.5 wins):  (17-65)
  • Indiana Pacers (Under 23.5 wins):  (35-47)

Southeast:

  • Miami Heat (Under 50.5 wins): (44-38)
  • Atlanta Hawks (Over 46.5 wins): (41-41)
  • Charlotte Hornets (Under 36.5 wins): (27-55)
  • Washington Wizards (Under 35.5 wins): (35-47)
  • Orlando Magic (Over 26.5 wins): (34-48)

Eastern Conference record: 8-7

Big misses on teams like the Knicks, Pistons, and Pacers contributed to losing records in the Atlantic and Central, but our readers salvaged an above-.500 overall mark in the East by nearly sweeping the Southeast — only a disappointing showing from the Hawks prevented a 5-0 record in that division.


Western Conference

Northwest:

  • Denver Nuggets (Over 51.5 wins): (53-29)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (Over 49.5 wins):  (42-40)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (Under 40.5 wins): (33-49)
  • Utah Jazz (Under 25.5 wins):  (37-45)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (Over 22.5 wins): (40-42)

Pacific:

  • Golden State Warriors (Over 53.5 wins):  (44-38)
  • Phoenix Suns (Over 53.5 wins):  (45-37)
  • Los Angeles Clippers (Over 52.5 wins):  (44-38)
  • Los Angeles Lakers (Under 45.5 wins):  (43-39)
  • Sacramento Kings (Over 34.5 wins):  (48-34)

Southwest:

  • Memphis Grizzlies (Over 49.5 wins):  (51-31)
  • Dallas Mavericks (Over 48.5 wins):  (38-44)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (Over 44.5 wins):  (42-40)
  • Houston Rockets (Under 24.5 wins):  (22-60)
  • San Antonio Spurs (Under 23.5 wins):  (22-60)

Western Conference record: 8-7

The parity in the West this season didn’t help our voters. Even though the Warriors, Suns, and Clippers were among the top six teams in the conference, for instance, they all fell well short of their projected win totals. Even the Nuggets and Grizzlies, the West’s top two teams, only narrowly beat their projections, as our readers predicted.

Despite a handful of big messes in the West, including on the Timberwolves, Jazz, and Mavericks, our voters eked out a winning record in the conference with some nice calls on the overachieving Kings and Thunder and the tanking Rockets, Spurs, and Trail Blazers, among others.


Overall record: 16-14

For the third season in a row, our voters finished above .500 in their over/under picks. That’s a legitimate winning streak!

Looking back at the preseason projections, along with your predictions, which team surprised or disappointed you the most? Jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Hawks Notes: Play-In Win, Bey, Young, T. Miller

The Hawks pulled off an upset victory in Miami on Tuesday night to secure a playoff berth and a first-round matchup against Boston. However, despite becoming the first team to defeat a No. 7 seed in a play-in tournament, head coach Quin Snyder and star guard Trae Young didn’t sound prepared to bask in the glow of the achievement after the game, as Joe Vardon of The Athletic writes.

Asked if the Hawks’ playoff-clinching win was something to celebrate, Snyder said that it was something to “appreciate,” while Young replied, “No, what’s there to celebrate?”

“I mean, it’s cool we made the playoffs,” Young continued. “I’m happy for guys like Saddiq (Bey) who’ve never been in the playoffs, and some of the other rookies and J.J. (Jalen Johnson) and some of the other guys who this is their first time to be able to experience the playoffs, but I mean, for me, I’ve been in the playoffs now three times and a couple of guys have been in way more than I have. It’s cool to be in the playoffs, but you want to win games in the playoffs.”

Here’s more on the Hawks:

  • Only Young and Dejounte Murray played more in Tuesday’s play-in victory for the Hawks than Saddiq Bey, who came off the bench to score 17 points in 33 minutes. Bey, having begun the season in Detroit, wouldn’t have gotten the opportunity to play in his first postseason game if not for the February trade that sent him to Atlanta. “I never knew it was going to be like this,” Bey said on Tuesday, per Vardon. “I’m just glad to be here, it’s a blessing to be here. But yeah, I was up thinking about it all night. I tried to force myself to sleep, and I thought I hit my deep sleep, but then I’d toss and turn and wake up and it was like, ‘Oh, I’m thinking about the playoffs again.'”
  • Appearing on TNT’s broadcast on Tuesday night (Twitter video link), Jared Greenberg reported that a member of the Hawks’ front office called Trae Young to assure him there was “no merit” to any trade rumors involving him. “They were assuring him that he’s a part of this family,” Greenberg said.
  • The Hawks are promoting Tori Miller to a vice president position, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). Miller, who will become one of the NBA’s highest-ranking female executives as a result of the promotion, had been the general manager of the College Park Skyhawks, Atlanta’s G League affiliate.

Poll: Wednesday’s NBA Play-In Games

In each of the first two years after the NBA introduced the play-in tournament in its current form in 2021, the No. 7 seeds defeated the No. 8 seeds — the Lakers and Celtics won at home in 2021, and the Timberwolves and Nets followed suit in 2022.

So history was made on Tuesday night, when the Heat became the first No. 7 seed to lose a play-in game, falling at home to the No. 8 Hawks. As a result, Atlanta will face the second-seeded Celtics in the first round of the playoffs, while Miami will get another chance to secure a playoff berth at home on Friday.

In Tuesday’s late game, the Lakers nearly followed Miami’s lead, falling behind by double digits to Minnesota. But Los Angeles’ defense keyed a comeback and the Lakers ultimately prevailed in overtime, clinching the No. 7 playoff spot and a first-round date with Memphis. The Wolves will return to Minnesota to host Friday’s play-in game for the right to face Denver.

The Heat’s and Timberwolves’ play-in opponents will be determined on Wednesday, starting in the East, where the No. 9 Raptors will host the No. 10 Bulls at 7:00 pm Eastern time.

Both Toronto and Chicago underachieved relative to their expectations this year after finishing among the East’s top six teams a year ago. While neither team was fully healthy – Lonzo Ball‘s season-long absence, in particular, hurt the Bulls – it’s hard to blame injury luck for their lack of success.

Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes all appeared in at least 67 games and logged at least 2,386 minutes, while DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic played at least 74 games and 2,682 minutes apiece. None of those players are on the injury report today, so Wednesday’s matchup will feature two relatively healthy clubs looking to salvage disappointing seasons.

The Raptors will enter Wednesday’s game as 5.5-point favorites, according to BetOnline.ag. They went 27-14 at home this season and have taken a step forward since acquiring Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline. Toronto has a 15-11 record with a +3.0 net rating since Poeltl’s debut, and its new starting lineup (Poeltl, Siakam, VanVleet, Anunoby, and Barnes) has a +9.5 net rating in 313 minutes together.

But the Bulls seemingly acquired their own missing piece in February, when they signed Patrick Beverley on the buyout market. Since Beverley’s debut on February 24, Chicago has a 14-9 record and a +5.7 net rating (third-best in the NBA). The Bulls’ new go-to starting lineup (Beverley, DeRozan, LaVine, Vucevic, and Alex Caruso) has outperformed Toronto’s new group, posting a +14.7 net rating across 267 minutes.

Over in the West, the No. 10 Thunder will battle the No. 9 Pelicans for the right to travel to Minnesota on Friday.

Widely viewed as one of the NBA’s worst teams entering the season, the Thunder have exceeded expectations due in large part to the contributions of All-Star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, breakout rookie Jalen Williams, and second-year guard Josh Giddey.

The Pelicans, meanwhile, had aspirations of a top-four seed in the fall and were a much better team when they had Zion Williamson available. They’ve looked average since the former No. 1 pick went down with a hamstring injury, recording a modest +0.2 net rating when Williamson isn’t on the court this season.

Both teams could find reasons for optimism in the results of their four-game regular season series. The Pelicans went 3-1 in those contests, including a pair of wins without Williamson available. On the other hand, Gilgeous-Alexander had a 44-point night against New Orleans and all three of OKC’s losses came by four points or less, so the Thunder actually outscored the Pelicans on the season.

The Pelicans’ home court advantage (they were 27-14 in New Orleans) helps make them 5.5-point favorites on Wednesday, per BetOnline.ag.

We got one upset on Tuesday. Will we get one or two more today? We want to know what you think. Make your play-in picks in the poll below, then head to the comment section to weigh in with your thoughts!

Injury Updates: Randle, Middleton, House, Isaac

Julius Randle practiced on a limited basis on Tuesday, giving the Knicks hope that he might play this weekend against Cleveland, Zach Braziller of the New York Post reports. Randle sprained his left ankle on March 29.

“He did some [work in practice]. Making steady progress. Taking it day-to-day,” Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau said. “He’s doing some running, shooting, scripting, that sort of thing.”

We have more injury updates:

  • Khris Middleton was not a full participant during the Bucks’ practice session on Tuesday but they’re hopeful he’ll be ready to go by the end of the week, Jim Owczarski of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. Middleton tweaked his troublesome right knee last week. “He’ll do some individual work, get some weight room work and he’ll do more individual work (Wednesday) and then we’re anticipating and planning for him to practice on Thursday,” coach Mike Budenholzer said.
  • Sixers swingman Danuel House Jr. didn’t practice on Tuesday due to a sore foot, but head coach Doc Rivers expects him to be available for Game 1 against Brooklyn, according to Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “He hurt his foot in one of the (last) two games,” Rivers said. “But I think he will be OK.”
  • Magic big man Jonathan Isaac underwent season-ending adductor surgery in early March. He expects to be at full strength by training camp, Khobi Price of the Orlando Sentinel reports. “This is really going to be the first summer I have to fully work,” Isaac said. “Every other summer I’ve been rehabbing trying to get back on to the court. So I’ll be hopefully in the next few weeks be a full go. And doing everything I need to do to have a healthy next season.”

Pistons Notes: Cunningham, Ivey, Casey, Expectations, Gores

Cade Cunningham‘s backcourt partnership with Jaden Ivey was delayed by Cunningham’s season-ending shin injury. Cunningham was impressed by Ivey’s growth this season and can’t wait to see how they’ll blend together for the Pistons next season, Keith Langlois of Pistons.com writes.

“The pace and the poise he showed at the end of the year, I knew he was going to be that but I didn’t realize he was going to pick it up so fast,” Cunningham said. “To see that was huge for the team and huge for him to feel that. He’s only going to take more steps like that every year he’s playing. With his work ethic, he’s going to be great. I’m excited for him and I’m excited to play with him.”

We have more on the Pistons:

  • Cunningham says he’s making steady progress from shin surgery, reports Mike Curtis of The Detroit News (subscription required). “I’m at full-body weight in running right now, which was a big step for me,” Cunningham said. “I’m shooting jump shots now. I’m doing a little bit of changing direction right now. Not too much, as far as running up and down and changing direction yet, but the next week or two weeks, I should be getting that going. I’m progressing pretty fast right now. I’m at a point now that I’m at full body weight; I can do a lot more.”
  • The players spoke of their respect for their now former coach, Dwane Casey, and are happy that he’ll remain with the organization in a front office role, Curtis relays in another subscriber-only story. “Definitely sad to see him step down, but I know he said he’s going to stay around the team and around the organization,” rookie Jalen Duren said. “I just talked to him. I thanked him for giving me the opportunity.”
  • The Pistons will have a top five lottery pick and the cap flexibility to make moves to upgrade the roster. Cunningham knows expectations will ramp up in the fourth season under general manager Troy Weaver, according to Omari Sankofa II of the Detroit Free Press (subscription required). “We have a big summer ahead of us, because next year is the year for us,” Cunningham said. “It’s a huge year, a year that we need to take another step and improve and be better.”
  • Owner Tom Gores lauded Casey’s willingness to go through the rebuild process and develop a young roster in a statement relayed by The Detroit News. “Under the leadership of General Manager Troy Weaver, he has helped re-set our culture and restored our aspiration to compete at a high level and contend for championships,” he said. “Of course, there is still lots of work to do. But, as we enter the next phase of this rebuild, I am optimistic about our team and our direction, and very excited about the newest member of our front office, Dwane Casey.”

Pacers’ Pritchard Won’t Commit To Hield Extension Offer

Pacers president of basketball operations Kevin Pritchard is noncommittal about offering wing Buddy Hield an extension, according to Dustin Dopirak of the Indianapolis Star.

Hield is entering the final year of his four-year, $94MM contract. The cap hit on his contract for 2023/24 is approximately $19.3MM. The Pacers will have to decide whether to pursue an extension, trade him or allow his free agency to play out next summer.

“He’s under contract for another year, so we don’t have to early extend,” Pritchard said. “We could. … I think we’ve got to define his role next year. If we can get a role where he’s comfortable and we’re comfortable, then I’m not opposed to it. I’m not saying we’re going to do it for sure, but I’m not opposed to it.”

Hield had a solid season, averaging 16.8 points per game while making 42.5% of his 3-pointers and 51.8% of his 2-pointers. He’s also a positive locker room influence and is close with franchise player Tyrese Haliburton, which could increase the possibility of an extension.

“I love Buddy,” Pritchard said. “There’s some things he does that are not on the court. He keeps practice light.”

Pritchard also touched a couple of other major topics regarding offseason plans:

  • Indiana will hold five draft picks in June, including three first-rounders. The Pacers will also have approximately $25MM in cap space. Pritchard said he’ll be open to wheeling and dealing to improve the roster. “I think there’s some opportunities for us to look at our draft picks and cap space and maybe put a bunch together and make big packages and go after some players,” he said. “I can’t say for sure that’s gonna get done. But I want to be really creative with how we go after the right players.”
  • Regarding the team’s three free agents — forwards Oshae Brissett and James Johnson, and guard George Hill — Pritchard’s interest in re-signing them hinges on what happens during the draft and the early days of free agency. “Those are guys we’ll be looking at, but with all these draft picks and cap space, they’re not July 1 deals, they’re July 10,” Pritchard said. “I’m not trying to cop out on the question. I just don’t think we get to that decision tree until later on. I don’t want to hurt or help them or give them false hope or tell them no.”

Southwest Notes: Williamson, Nance Jr., Harrison, Lofton

Pelicans star forward Zion Williamson, who won’t play in the play-in tournament and is considered unlikely to be available in the first round if the team makes it that far, admits that his hamstring issue is more mental than physical at the moment, according to Christian Clark of the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

“I can pretty much do everything,” said Williamson, who hasn’t suited up for the Pelicans since Jan. 2. “It’s just a matter of the level that I was playing at before my hamstring. I’m just a competitor. I don’t want to go out there and be in my own head and affect the team. I can just be on the sidelines supporting them more. I know myself. If I was to go out there, I would be in my head a lot. I would hesitate on certain moves. And that could affect the game.”

We have more from the Southwest Division:

  • The Pelicans have added Larry Nance Jr. to the injury report for their play-in game against the Thunder on Wednesday, according to a team press release. The forward is listed as questionable due to left ankle soreness. He’s averaging 6.8 points and 5.4 rebounds this season.
  • Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison vows that the team won’t miss the postseason next season, Callie Caplan of the Dallas Morning News tweets. “They (the fans) should be frustrated. I’m frustrated. This year was unacceptable. … We’re going to evaluate everything, and we’re not going to be in this situation again.”
  • Kenneth Lofton Jr.‘s four-year contract with the Grizzlies is guaranteed for next season and is worth a total of $6,927,014, but it’s non-guaranteed for 2024/25 and includes a team option in 2025/26, Hoops Rumors has learned. He received a $1MM salary for 2022/23, which was well above his prorated minimum. The remaining three years are at the minimum salary. Lofton had his two-way contract converted over the weekend.

Mavericks Optimistic They’ll Re-Sign Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving met with Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison and expressed his gratitude for how he was treated by the organization. Harrison, in turn, told the media on Tuesday that re-signing Irving is the organization’s top priority this offseason, according to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon.

“I think the things that he said along the way about how he feels here, how he feels appreciated, how he feels accepted and allowed to be himself — those are the things that he said kind of consistently,” Harrison said. “That’s what gives me the optimism that he wants to be here.”

The Mavs went 7-18 after the blockbuster trade with the Nets that sent Irving to Dallas and dropped out of the playoff race. They had an 5-11 record when both Irving and Luka Doncic played.

Yet Harrison insists they can thrive in the long-term.

“I think Luka and Kai work together,” he said. “I think when we have that talented of a player — that talented of two players — I think they work together. I really think it’s the players around them … kind of knowing their role with having those two guys out on the floor at the same time. I think that’s the thing that we need to work on.”

Irving declined to meet with the media after the season.

Whether Dallas will offer Irving a maximum contract, or something close to it, remains to be seen. He is eligible for a five-year, $272MM contract with the Mavericks or a four-year, $201.7MM deal with another team.

Doncic told the media he wants to the organization to re-sign Irving. The Mavs have some internal concerns about whether Doncic might request a trade next offseason if the team doesn’t show significant progress in 2023/24, sources within the organization have told MacMahon.

Harrison says it’s his responsibility to make sure Doncic doesn’t feel the need to request a trade.

“He’s under contract, so I don’t go to sleep at night worried about, ‘Is Luka going to be a Maverick?’ Because he is a Maverick, and he’s under contract. Obviously, if that changes, then we’ll have to reevaluate it,” Harrison said. “But I think our job really to keep Luka happy, if you will, is surrounding him by the right players to help him win.”

Southeast Notes: Young, Lowry, Jovic, Ball

Trae Young addressed a report that the Hawks might listen to offers for him in the offseason, saying he had more urgent matters to attend to — namely, Tuesday’s play-in game against Miami, Joe Vardon of The Athletic reports.

“Especially as the player in the moment, you can’t look at what’s gonna come on next year,” the Hawks’ star guard said. “After the game, if the game doesn’t go your way tonight, what’s gonna happen? Like, you can’t focus on things like that. That messes up your head and then you’re not ready to play so, me, I’m not worried about that. I’m gonna let my game play. After the season, whatever happens, happens.”

According to Shams Charania of The Athletic (video link), Young has developed a “solid” relationship with coach Quin Snyder but the Hawks “are continuing to monitor (his) day-to-day commitment and his habits on a day-to-day basis, on the floor and off the floor.” Atlanta’s front office wants to see if Young will become a better leader and Charania expects Young’s agent, Rich Paul, to have conversations with management this offseason about his future.

We have more from the Southeast Division:

  • Heat guard Kyle Lowry, who will be entering the final season of his three-year contract in 2023/24, isn’t sure if he’ll require left knee surgery this offseason, according to Anthony Chiang and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. “I don’t know,” Lowry said. “We’ll get to that point when it’s there.” He has been limited to 55 games this season due primarily to left knee pain.
  • Heat rookie Nikola Jovic missed 37 games this season due to back issues and he told Chiang that he’s been battling back pain since last summer. “It’s something that started during the summer league,” Jovic said. “That’s when I first felt it. Then just through the season, it was hurting more and more. At one point, I just couldn’t play anymore. The back injury was bothering me even off the court. So I just couldn’t deal with it anymore.”
  • LaMelo Ball, who missed 46 games this season due to ankle ailments, said he’s happy with the Hornets, according to Steve Reed of The Associated Press“I love it here,” he said. “I can’t really tell the future. We’ll just see how it goes and go from there.” However, he doesn’t want to be on a lottery-bound team much longer. “The main thing is winning. Life if better when you win,” he said. Ball is eligible for an extension this offseason.

Trade Breakdown: Clippers/Nuggets/Lakers/Magic Deal

This is the 11th entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a four-team deal between the Clippers, Nuggets, Lakers and Magic.


Trade details

On February 9:

  • The Clippers acquired Bones Hyland.
  • The Nuggets acquired Thomas Bryant.
  • The Lakers acquired Mohamed Bamba, Davon Reed, the Clippers’ 2024 second-round pick, and the Clippers’ 2025 second-round pick.
  • The Magic acquired Patrick Beverley, the Nuggets’ 2024 second-round pick, and cash ($2MM; from Lakers).
  • Note: Both the Nuggets and the Lakers created a couple of small traded player exceptions as part of this deal, which can be found right here.

The Clippers’ perspective:

February’s trade deadline was unusual in that it featured several transactions that were originally reported as being between two teams, but were eventually folded into four-team deals.

For the Clippers, this transaction was very straightforward. They dealt away their 2024 and 2025 second-round picks to Denver and used a traded player exception to acquire Hyland, a second-year guard. That was the end of it for them.

The Nuggets flipped those two second-rounders — plus Reed and their own ’24 second — to the Lakers for Bryant. The Lakers then rerouted Denver’s second and Beverley to Orlando for Bamba. Three separate trades were folded into one because it made sense to do so.

The Clippers finished the regular season ranked 17th in the league on offense, and Hyland is a talented microwave-type offensive player – he can get hot in a hurry. He provides some flair and unpredictability to an offense that can be a little bland and stagnant at times.

When the deal was made, I was skeptical that the second-year guard would actually receive meaningful minutes, and that turned out to be accurate, at least initially. He only appeared in five of his first 14 games with the Clippers, averaging 7.0 PPG and 3.6 RPG on .297/.278/.800 shooting in 14.2 MPG.

The primary reason for that is Hyland is a combo guard whose size (he’s listed at 6’2″ and 169 pounds) makes it difficult to play him as anything but a point defensively. No matter where you play him on that end, he’s prone to making mistakes both on and off the ball.

However, injuries to Norman Powell (left shoulder subluxation) and Paul George (knee sprain) created an opening for Hyland, and he finished the season as a regular contributor off the bench, averaging 12.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG and 4.3 APG on .440/.375/.700 shooting in nine games (21.6 MPG).

Hyland’s immaturity (he left Denver’s bench out of frustration in the fourth quarter of a Jan. 22 game against the Thunder), defensive lapses, and displeasure with his role were reportedly factors in the Nuggets looking to move the former first-round pick. I’m sure Hyland shoving Mason Plumlee in the regular season finale raised a few eyebrows within the Clippers organization, even if it was a relatively minor incident.

Still, despite his flaws, adding a 22-year-old with some real offensive talent on a cheap, controllable contract through at least 2024/25 for just a couple of second-round picks was a worthwhile gamble for the Clippers. Even if it doesn’t work out in the long run, the cost was relatively low.


The Nuggets’ perspective:

When I write these trade breakdown articles, I treat it as a thought exercise where I try to put myself in the position of the respective teams’ front office. Of course I rely on reports and public statements as well, but NBA decision-makers aren’t always forthcoming with the media, which is understandable.

I try to be as objective as I can, which is challenging — I don’t necessarily personally agree with what I’m writing at times, and it’s hard to prevent my opinions from slipping through.

The reason I waited so long to write about this particular trade is I really didn’t like it from Denver’s perspective, and I still don’t.

Moving on from Hyland for a couple of second-round picks was reasonable enough; I’m sure the Nuggets did their due diligence, and that’s what his market value was. All the trade rumors coming out about how motivated they were to move him certainly did not help on that front.

My issue was that they rerouted those second-rounders and included one of their own to add a player on an expiring minimum-salary contract who doesn’t fit well on the roster. It’s not that Bryant is a bad player, he just doesn’t make sense on the Nuggets.

Part of the reason Denver’s bench has struggled so much all season long is because of the team’s reliance on Nikola Jokic. What he does on the court is impossible to replicate, particularly offensively – he’s the most efficient high-volume scorer in the league, unguardable one-on-one in the post, and one of the best passers in league history.

That reliance has proven to be a double-edged sword, as they lack an identity without him. His on/off numbers are staggering: plus-12.5 with him, and minus-10.4 without, a net difference of 22.9 points per 100 possessions. Every reserve has very poor on/off numbers.

Bryant has a lot of positive qualities. He hustles for loose balls, competes, sprints down the floor and is a skilled offensive player who can really shoot for a center, though his three-point percentages are somewhat misleading, as it’s low volume.

LeBron James and Russell Westbrook were very good at setting him up quality looks, and Bryant was highly efficient at converting them. He averaged 12.1 PPG and 6.8 RPG on .654/.440/.741 shooting in 41 games with the Lakers (25 starts, 21.4 MPG).

However, he is much more of a finisher as opposed to someone who can create for himself and others, and the Nuggets don’t really have anyone who can reliably feed him in the pick-and-roll. Head coach Michael Malone has been playing Jamal Murray with the second unit lately after abandoning the Reggie Jackson experiment, but they’re both score-first point guards. Bruce Brown isn’t a natural point either.

Bryant is a limited defensive player who – like Jokic – doesn’t protect the rim, and he also doesn’t possess Jokic’s basketball IQ or quick hands to be disruptive. He tries, but Bryant doesn’t move very well laterally and he’s on the small side for a center.

Long story short, Bryant’s skill set doesn’t fit well with Denver because he doesn’t have anyone who can reliably set him up on offense, and while he is a solid rebounder, he is an overall poor defensive player. It’s just a bad mix.

At the end of March, Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports asked Malone (Twitter video link) why he thought Bryant hasn’t been able to find a rhythm with the Nuggets.

No idea. I can’t answer it. Maybe ask him that,” Malone replied.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement. It was also a little strange considering Bryant isn’t the first backup center who has been productive on other teams and struggled in Denver over the past few seasons, joining JaVale McGee and Isaiah Hartenstein. That tells me the coaches deserve some blame for failing to utilize those players as well.

In 18 games with Denver, Bryant has averaged 4.6 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .485/.444/.722 shooting in just 11.4 MPG. He has been buried on the depth chart behind Zeke Nnaji and DeAndre Jordan since Malone made those comments.

I really liked some of the moves the Nuggets made over the past year, including trading for (and extending) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, signing Brown, and drafting Christian Braun and Peyton Watson. All are players who filled roster needs.

As I said, I understand trading Hyland if he was causing problems in the locker room, and if that was the end of it, that would have been fine. But flipping those two second-rounders and including an additional one to acquire Bryant – who almost certainly won’t be retained – was a poor decision, in my opinion.


The Magic’s perspective:

It’s hard to say that Bamba’s tenure with the Magic was anything but a disappointment. He was selected No. 6 overall in the 2018 draft, ahead of players like Wendell Carter Jr., Mikal Bridges, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Michael Porter Jr., Kevin Huerter, Robert Williams and Jalen Brunson, among several others.

Bamba dealt with injuries and never seemed to gain former coach Steve Clifford’s trust in his first three seasons, as he averaged just 15.3 minutes per game in 155 games from 2018-2001. He averaged 6.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG and 1.3 BPG on .471/.325/.646 shooting over that same span.

You could say being behind All-Star center Nikola Vucevic was partly to blame, but there were times when Bamba was outplayed by Khem Birch and Moritz Wagner as well. Draft status doesn’t mean much if you aren’t contributing at a high level.

After Orlando traded Vucevic and hired Jamahl Mosley to be the new head coach, Bamba emerged as the team’s starting center in 2021/22, which was the fourth and final season of his rookie scale contract. He averaged 10.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG and 1.7 BPG on .480/.381/.781 shooting in 71 games (25.7 MPG), re-signing with the Magic on a two-year, $20.6MM deal, though only his ’22/23 salary is guaranteed.

Bamba played alongside Carter in the frontcourt last season after Orlando acquired the former Duke big man as part of the Vucevic deal. However, the Magic landed the No. 1 overall pick last June and selected Paolo Banchero, a skilled power forward, which moved Carter up to center and put Bamba back on the bench.

The 24-year-old was mostly outplayed by Wagner again this season once the German big man returned from injury, burying Bamba further on the depth chart. The short-lived return of Jonathan Isaac, who later went down with season-ending adductor surgery, also likely played a factor in Orlando’s willingness to move Bamba.

The Magic gave Bamba opportunities — things just didn’t work out. He’s on a pseudo-expiring contract (non-guaranteed $10.3MM salary for ‘23/24), essentially making him a rental player.

It turns out he didn’t have a ton of league-wide value, which is why Orlando only got a second-round pick back. Taking on some additional salary in the form of Beverley didn’t affect the Magic’s cap situation, as they’re well below the luxury tax (they also received $2MM in cash from the Lakers). Beverley was later bought out and signed with the Bulls.


The Lakers’ perspective:

You can’t really look at this trade in isolation for the Lakers, as they completely revamped the roster with a series of moves in January and February.

The Lakers have gone 18-8 over their last 26 games despite missing LeBron James for 13 of those contests, so clearly the moves were beneficial in the short term.

They also recently signed Tristan Thompson and Shaquille Harrison to fortify their depth ahead of the postseason. They had one open roster spot and waived Reed to accommodate the second addition (he only played 27 garbage-time minutes across eight games with Los Angeles).

Bryant reportedly requested a trade after Anthony Davis returned from his foot injury. He played well as a fill-in starter for the Lakers, but wanted a bigger opportunity. Obviously, things have not worked out with Denver.

As for Beverley, moving him saved money toward the tax and created more playing time for the new additions as well as Austin Reaves, who has excelled over the past few months. Beverley had a rough start with the Lakers and although he eventually turned things around, he’s still a limited offensive player who is much older than Russell, Beasley, Reaves and Dennis Schröder.

Unfortunately, Bamba sustained a high left ankle sprain that sidelined him for a month not long after the Lakers acquired him, so it’s hard to get much of a read on how the team views him. He does bring a different skill set than Wenyen Gabriel, who has been the primary backup center following Bryant’s exit.

Bamba is listed at 7’0″ and 231 pounds with an enormous 7’10” wingspan, making him one of the longest recorded players in NBA history. He’s also shot 38.3% on threes over the past two seasons – an above-average mark, particularly for a center.

Gabriel, meanwhile, is 6’9″ and 205 pounds. He makes up for his lack of size by relentlessly going after rebounds and being a solid, versatile defensive player. He has outperformed his minimum-salary contract, but he’s still limited offensively and rough around the edges at times.

Bamba is more of a pick-and-pop threat, and obviously he has the size and length to be a deterrent in the paint – opponents shot 57.9% at the rim against Bamba, a solid mark.

That doesn’t necessarily mean Bamba is an overall positive defensively, however, as he’s prone to attempting blocks he has no chance of reaching, leaving the weak side open for offensive rebounds and easy put-backs. Still, his physical tools are enviable, and he won’t turn 25 until May.

Bamba’s $10.3MM salary for ‘23/24 will become guaranteed if the Lakers don’t waive him by the end of June. If they do release him and want to bring him back, they’ll have to re-sign him using something besides his Bird rights, which would be lost if he’s cut (he would regain his Bird rights for 2024 and beyond if he did re-sign with the Lakers in that scenario).