2024/25 NBA Over/Unders: Southeast Division

With the 2024/25 NBA regular season set to tip off next month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2023/24, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’24/25?

We’ll continue our series today with the Southeast Division…


Orlando Magic


Miami Heat


Atlanta Hawks


Charlotte Hornets


Washington Wizards


Previous voting results:

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
  • Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
  • Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

Players Currently Affected By Trade Restrictions

The NBA has no shortage of rules affecting which players can and can’t be traded at any given time, which complicates our understanding of which players are actually moveable. That’s especially true leading up to the regular season, when players who recently signed free agent contracts, extensions, and rookie contracts all face different sets of trade restrictions.

In an effort to clear things up, we’re looking today at which players around the NBA are currently affected by trade restrictions of one kind or another. Let’s dive in…


Recently signed free agents

In most cases, a free agent who signed a contract in the offseason is ineligible to be traded until December 15.

Currently, our list of players who will become trade-eligible on December 15 features 85 names, including several of the guys who signed the biggest free agent contracts of the summer, such as Paul George, Pascal Siakam, and Isaiah Hartenstein.

But the list is technically even longer than that, since we haven’t included players who signed non-guaranteed Exhibit 10 contracts. Most of those players will be waived by opening night, but if they earn spots on regular season rosters, the December 15 trade restriction would apply to them as well.

A free agent who signs after September 15 won’t become trade-eligible until three months after his signing date.

Any player who has his two-way contract converted to a standard deal during the offseason also doesn’t become trade-eligible until December 15 or until three months after the move, whichever comes later. However, no players were promoted from two-way contracts to standard deals this summer. All the players who finished last season on two-ways either became free agents on July 1, were waived, or are still on their previous contracts.

A select group of players who signed free agent contracts this offseason won’t become trade-eligible until January 15. These 16 players all meet a specific set of criteria. Not only did they re-sign with their previous team this offseason, but they got a raise of at least 20%, their salary is worth more than the minimum, and their team was over the cap, using Bird or Early Bird rights to sign them. That group includes Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley, and Nic Claxton, among others.

The above rules apply to players who sign standard contracts, not two-way deals. A player who signs a two-way contract is ineligible to be traded for 30 days. So Luke Travers, who signed with the Cavaliers on August 28, will become trade-eligible on September 27. Two-way players are almost never traded, but it happens every now and then, like when RaiQuan Gray was included in this summer’s three-team DeMar DeRozan sign-and-trade.


Recently signed draft picks

Like a player who signs a two-way contract, a draftee who signs his first NBA contract is ineligible to be traded for 30 days. Currently, this restriction only impacts Jazz second-rounder Kyle Filipowski, who signed a four-year contract on August 12 and will become trade-eligible on September 11.

The rest of this year’s draftees can currently be traded.

That list of tradable 2024 draftees includes all the players besides Fililpowski who have signed, since more than 30 days have passed since their officially completed their deals.

It also includes the two players who remain unsigned – Nikola Djurisic and Quinten Post – since their draft rights can be traded until they sign their contract. If Djurisic and Post officially sign NBA contracts for 2024/25, they’ll become trade-ineligible for 30 days.


Players with veto ability

Suns guard Bradley Beal and Lakers forward LeBron James are the only NBA players who have genuine no-trade clauses in their contracts, but several other players have the ability to veto trades this season due to various quirks of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Clippers guard James Harden, Grizzlies sharpshooter Luke Kennard, Sixers guard Kyle Lowry, and Nuggets center DeAndre Jordan are some of the notable players whose consent will be required to trade them during the 2024/25 season.

Under the new CBA, a player who would normally meet the no-trade criteria due to re-signing with his current team on a one-year contract (or a two-year deal with a second-year option) can opt to waive his right to veto a trade.

Eleven players have done so this season, including Knicks big man Precious Achiuwa and Sixers forward Kelly Oubre, so once they become trade-eligible (on either December 15 or January 15), they can be moved without any issue.


Players who have signed veteran extensions

A player who signs a rookie scale extension becomes more difficult to trade due to the “poison pill provision,” but he could theoretically be moved immediately.

That’s not necessarily the case for a player who signs a veteran contract extension. A player who signs a veteran extension becomes ineligible to be traded for the next six months if the deal locks him up for more than four total years (including his current contract), includes a first-year bump higher than 20%, and/or includes a raise exceeding 5% anytime after the first year of the extension.

With the help of our extension trackers, here are the players currently affected by that rule, along with the dates they’ll become trade-eligible:

Since the trade deadline will land on February 6, Markkanen, McConnell, and Zubac won’t be eligible to be traded until the 2025 offseason.

This restriction will also apply to any player who signs an extension meeting the terms outlined above between now and the trade deadline, such as Jamal Murray, who has reportedly agreed to terms on a new four-year extension with the Nuggets.

Warriors star Stephen Curry and Wizards big man Richaun Holmes also signed extensions this offseason, but those deals didn’t exceed four total years or include raises greater than 5%, meaning Curry and Holmes remain eligible to be traded. Obviously, that’s a far more realistic outcome for Holmes than Curry.


Players who have signed Designated Veteran extensions

A Designated Veteran contract is also known as a “super-max” deal — it’s a maximum-salary contract that starts at 35% of the cap instead of 30% because the player has met certain performance criteria before achieving 10 years of NBA service.

A player who signs a Designated Veteran contract or extension can’t be traded for one full year after his signing date.

Only one player has signed a super-max contract this offeason: Celtics forward Jayson Tatum. He’ll become trade-eligible on July 6, 2025, the one-year anniversary of his signing.


Players affected by aggregation restrictions

When a team trades for a player via salary-matching or using an exception (ie. not by absorbing the player into cap room), that team can’t “aggregate” the player in another trade for two months. Aggregating a player means combining his salary with another player’s for matching purposes.

The majority of the trades made this offseason so far were completed before July 9, so this restriction only applies to two players at the moment. Here are those players, along with the dates when they’ll become aggregation-eligible:

Any player who is traded this season after December 6 (without being acquired via cap room) won’t be eligible to be flipped prior to the trade deadline in a second deal that aggregates his salary with another player’s.

This aggregation restriction also applies indefinitely to any player on a team who is operating over the second tax apron. Currently, four teams fit that bill: the Suns, Celtics, Bucks, and Timberwolves.

Southwest Notes: Barnes, Toney, Mavs TV Deal

Harrison Barnes knows his experience will be valuable to the Spurs’ young roster, according to Matt Guzman of Sports Illustrated.

“Obviously, coming in with (Chris Paul), we’re going to be two of the older guys in the locker room,” Barnes said. “Just getting a chance to talk with some of the guys here, there’s good energy, good excitement. I definitely look forward to putting my arm around guys and getting to work.”

Barnes will also provide perimeter shooting (38% on 3-point attempts in his career) and solid defense, Guzman adds. Barnes was acquired in the three-team deal involving Sacramento and Chicago.

“(I’m here) to do anything that’s asked of me,” he said. “The goal every season is to go out there, play 82 games and give it my best.”

We have more from the Southwest Division:

  • The Pelicans’ NBA G League team, the Birmingham Squadron, has acquired the rights to guard Au’Diese Toney from the Nuggets’ G League team, the Grand Rapids Gold, in exchange for Tevian Jones, according to the Gold (Twitter link). Toney, 24, played in 12 regular-season games with the Gold last season, averaging 12.4 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists. He was undrafted out of Arkansas. Jones, who was undrafted out of Southern Utah, appeared in 34 games for the Gold.
  • The Mavericks have chosen to have their games broadcast over a local, free over-the-air channel, according to a team press release. The agreement covers all games that are not on national TV. The new multi-year broadcast rights agreement with TEGNA will allow Dallas-area residents to watch the games on KMPX Dallas-Ft. Worth. The Mavs ended their broadcast deal with financially troubled Bally Sports last month.
  • In case you missed it, the Mavericks are bringing back Markieff Morris. Get the details here.

Community Shootaround: Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament

The play-in tournament ensures that at least 10 teams in each conference will get a taste of the postseason.

Unless something unforseen happens, eight teams in the Eastern Conference can already plan on playing beyond their regular season finales. It’s safe to assume the Celtics, Bucks, Sixers, Magic, Knicks, Cavaliers, Pacers and Heat will occupy eight of the postseason slots. The only mystery regarding those clubs is which two teams will have to come out of the play-in tournament.

Predicting which two Eastern teams among the remaining seven will participate in the play-in is a much tougher call. The Bulls and Hawks snared the last two spots last season, but there’s reason to believe they’ll wind up in the lottery.

The Bulls dealt away leading scorer DeMar DeRozan and top defender Alex Caruso this offseason and would like to make more moves. Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic have been on the trading block for quite a while and they could be wearing different uniforms at some point during the season. The addition of Josh Giddey, joining Coby White in the backcourt, could be enough to get them back to the play-in but that’s certainly no lock.

The Hawks, of course, broke up their high-scoring backcourt by dealing Dejounte Murray to the Pelicans. Atlanta did wind up with the top pick in the draft, but Zaccharie Risacher isn’t your typical top overall selection. No one quite knows what the Hawks have in Risacher, who is unlikely to have the sort of first-year impact that Victor Wembanyama or Brandon Miller did a year ago.

The Raptors have a much different roster than in recent years but they should improve on their 25-win total. They have built around Scottie Barnes with a backcourt of former Knicks Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett.

The Hornets could be on the upswing if LaMelo Ball can finally stay healthy for a whole season. They have two high-scoring wings in Miller and Miles Bridges.

The Wizards signed Jonas Valanciunas and have two promising forwards Bilal Coulibaly and No. 2 overall pick Alex Sarr. They still seem to be a couple of years away from entering the postseason picture.

The Nets, of course, traded away their top player in Mikal Bridges with their sights set on next offseason, when they’ll have extra first-round picks and plenty of cap space.

Last, but maybe not least anymore, are the Pistons. Coming off the worst season in franchise history, the Pistons used their ample cap room to get Cade Cunningham more help. The additions of Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. should make them more competitive.

That leads us to our topic of the day: Among the Bulls, Hawks, Raptors, Hornets, Wizards, Nets and Pistons, which of those Eastern Conference teams will make the play-in tournament this upcoming season? 

Please take to the comments section to address this topic. We look forward to your input.

And-Ones: Curry, Near Trades, Payton Sr., West Teams’ Weaknesses

Stephen Curry, who recently signed a $62.6MM extension for the 2026/27 season, has already made more money in the 2020s than any player in any decade in NBA history, HoopsHype tweets.

The Warriors superstar has already racked up $229MM in this decade through the 2023/24 season. LeBron James made $226.4MM in the 2010s, while Kevin Garnett earned $215.5MM in the 2000s.

We have more from the basketball world:

  • Remember in 2019 when Paul George and Russell Westbrook were dealt to the Raptors? Do you recall back in 2007 when Garnett was dealt to the Warriors? Or in 2011 when the Lakers added an in-his-prime Chris Paul? Of course, none of those trades actually came to fruition. Mark Deeks of HoopsHype looks back at some of the biggest near trades in NBA history.
  • ‘The Glove’ has found a head coaching job in the junior college ranks. Former NBA star Gary Payton Sr. is the new head coach at the College of Alameda, according to Marc Spears of ESPN (Twitter link). Payton, inherits a program that went 7-21 last season while playing in the Bay Valley Conference. Payton, 56, has also been coaching in the Big3 league since its inception in 2017.
  • The Nuggets need to add more 3-point shooting, Tim Bontemps of ESPN notes. They lost Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who shot over 40% from deep in two seasons with Denver, in free agency. In the subscriber-only story, Bontemps also looks at the biggest weaknesses on the Lakers, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Kings rosters.

Cedi Osman: “Easy Choice” To Sign With Panathinaikos

Turkish forward Cedi Osman, who has spent the past seven seasons in the NBA (six with Cleveland, one with San Antonio), said it wasn’t a difficult decision to sign a one-year contract with defending EuroLeague champion Panathinaikos, per Eurohoops.

It was a long process, but, obviously, it was an easy choice for me,” Osman said of joining the Greek club. “I have known Panathinaikos for a lot of years. I played against them as a kid. And Ergin [Ataman] was my coach since I was a kid. There were links with other teams, but it was not a really hard choice for me.”

According to Osman, “a couple” of NBA teams expressed interest in his services during free agency. Eurohoops previously reported that the Lakers offered Osman a training camp deal, and it’s not surprising he declined — it likely would have been non-guaranteed, and L.A. already has 15 players on standard guaranteed contracts.

At the end of the day, I had to keep going,” Osman said. “I came to a team with seven EuroLeague titles, that has won the EuroLeague and Greek league championships last year.”

Osman, 29, averaged 6.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG and 1.7 APG on .479/.389/.673 shooting in 72 games with the Spurs last season (17.6 MPG). He holds career averages of 9.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG and 2.0 APG on .432/.357/.711 shooting over 476 regular season contests, including 186 starts (22.7 MPG).

Panathinaikos big man Matthias Lessort, who helped France claim a silver medal at the Olympics, said he was excited to have Osman on the roster. Lessort’s draft rights are controlled by the Knicks.

Cedi Osman is a great player; he can create and shoot, contribute defensively, and of course, having a player of that caliber is very good for the team,” Lessort told Vuk-Milos Petrovic of Basketball Sphere. “Panathinaikos is a great team, and I hope he comes ready to impose himself and help.”

Poll: How Will Isaac Okoro’s Situation Be Resolved?

With training camps set to begin in about three weeks, there haven’t been many updates on the NBA’s lone remaining restricted free agent, former No. 5 overall pick Isaac Okoro.

Okoro provides real value to the Cavaliers — he’s their best on-ball defender and is frequently tasked with guarding the opposing teams’ best perimeter player. Even with a major size disadvantage, Okoro did an admirable job defending Paolo Banchero in Cleveland’s first-round playoff series vs. Orlando.

The issue is on the other end of the court, where Okoro is an inconsistent shooter and scorer whom opposing defenses frequently ignore. After shooting a career-best 39.1% from three-point range in the 2023/24 regular season, he converted just 25.7% of his outside looks in the postseason.

The Cavaliers extended a qualifying offer — essentially just a one-year contract offer — to Okoro in June, granting them the right of first refusal in negotiations. That QO is worth $11,828,974. If the 23-year-old accepts the QO, he would become an unrestricted free agent in 2025.

In late July, Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com reported that the Cavs also made Okoro a multiyear offer, roughly in the range of $8-10MM annually. Cleveland certainly seems to be in the driver’s seat in negotiations and hasn’t budged on that stance, according to reports last month from Fedor and ESPN’s Brian Windhorst.

One of the primary issues for Okoro is the Pistons are the only team in the league that has cap room available, and there has been no indication they’re interested in testing the Cavaliers with a long-term offer that Cleveland could match. There also haven’t been any rumors about teams potentially using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception to make Okoro an offer.

For what it’s worth, the Cavs used the stretch provision to spread Ricky Rubio‘s $1,274,015 dead-money cap hit for 2024/25 across three seasons. Rubio will now count against Cleveland’s books for $424,672 annually through ’26/27. That might not sound significant, but it could help the Cavs re-sign Okoro while avoiding the luxury tax — a key consideration for a team whose payroll is set to balloon in ’25/26, when Evan Mobley‘s rookie scale extension kicks in.

Aside from accepting the QO, re-signing with the Cavs on a multiyear deal, or signing with another team (again, the Cavs could choose to match), there’s one other viable outcome. The Cavs reportedly discussed a sign-and-trade with the Nets involving Okoro and Dorian Finney-Smith, but it sounds like those talks didn’t get serious.

We want to know what you think. How will Okoro’s situation be resolved? Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts.

Central Notes: Stewart, LaVine, Sheppard, Walker, Mathurin

Isaiah Stewart‘s role under new head coach J.B. Bickerstaff is among the questions facing the Pistons as they prepare for training camp, writes Keith Langlois of NBA.com. Stewart played nearly all his minutes at center during his first two NBA seasons, but that changed when the team added Jalen Duren in 2022. Langlois notes that Stewart was used at power forward 75% of the time last season, but his primary position is less certain than ever with a revamped roster.

Other than Stewart and Duren, offseason addition Paul Reed is Detroit’s only player who projects as a center. The Pistons claimed the four-year veteran after the Sixers waived him in July. Reed has shown promise backing up Joel Embiid in Philadelphia.

Detroit also added ex-Sixer Tobias Harris in free agency, and Langlois notes that he and Simone Fontecchio are examples of modern stretch fours. It’s possible that Bickerstaff could choose to dedicate the power forward minutes to those two proven three-point shooters, leaving Stewart to battle for playing time in the middle.

There’s more from the Central Division:

  • Mending fences with Zach LaVine should be one of the priorities for the Bulls as they get ready for camp, observes Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. The front office began trying to trade LaVine last fall in what was hoped to be the first step of a roster makeover. However, his massive contract and injury history doomed trade efforts and forced the team to keep him. LaVine is still owed $138MM over the next three years, so the Bulls need to build up his trade value ahead of the February deadline. Cowley states that coach Billy Donovan took the first step toward mending their relationship when he visited LaVine in Los Angeles this summer.
  • With their roster virtually set for the upcoming season, the Pacers are facing three option decisions that should be easy, per Tony East of Sports Illustrated. Indiana has until October 31 to pick up the third-year options for Ben Sheppard and Jarace Walker, along with the fourth-year option for Bennedict Mathurin. All three players appear to be part of the team’s future, so there’s no reason to part with any of them. The options would pay Sheppard $2.8MM, Walker $6.6MM and Mathurin $9.1MM for the 2025/26 season.
  • The Pacers announced in a press release that they have added Dr. Jaimie Rubin as Director of Sport Psychology and Team Wellness.

International Notes: Fournier, Gafford, Smailagic, Karaman

Evan Fournier is ready to get started with Olympiacos after spending 12 years in the NBA, per a Eurohoops story. The 32-year-old guard made the decision to play in Europe after helping France win a silver medal at the Olympics. During a press conference this week, Fournier confirmed that he received an offer from Washington, but he didn’t want to settle for being a mentor and a part-time player.

I had contacts with some contenders during the summer, before the Olympics,” he told reporters. “I had an offer from the Wizards, but that wasn’t something I wanted for my career right now. I came to Olympiacos to experience strong emotions, play in big games, and be part of a special project. This was the opportunity at the right time and by far the best option for me.”

Fournier added that he grew up as a fan of Olympiacos and is happy to be able to join the Greek team. He spent time with JSF Nanterre and Poitiers Basket 86 before coming to the NBA, so he’s familiar with the European style of play, and he said at the news conference that it’s actually harder to score in the EuroLeague than it is in the NBA. He also stated that he received encouragement from Bulls center Nikola Vucevic, a former teammate, about returning to Europe.

Vucevic and I have been discussing it all the time lately,” Fournier said. “He is from Montenegro and is a fan of Red Star, and he was asking me a lot of questions about my transition here. He loves European basketball as well. If he doesn’t (make) the playoffs, he will come see me play here.

There’s more international news to pass along:

  • Mavericks center Daniel Gafford received an offer to join Luka Doncic on the Slovenian national team, Matej Erjavec, president of the Basketball Federation of Slovenia, revealed in an interview with Ekipa. Gafford was approached with the possibility after a game last season and asked for some time to consider it. “When he called us a few days later, he said that this summer was simply not going to work, as he had ordered individual exercises, programs, personal trainers and some other matters,” Erjavec said. “(But) he is definitely interested in the future.”
  • Former NBA player Alen Smailagic cited extortion, blackmail and financial fraud as reasons he chose to leave Serbia and sign with Zalgiris Kaunas in Lithuania, per BasketNews. Smailagic has filed criminal charges against two people regarding a contract his parents signed in 2019 after his first season with the Santa Cruz Warriors in the G League.
  • Turkish player Ilkan Karaman, who was selected in the 2012 NBA draft, has died at age 34 after being struck by a car while standing on the sidewalk, according to BasketNews. Karaman was taken by the Nets with the 57th pick in 2012. His draft rights were traded to Cleveland in 2014 and to Milwaukee in 2020, but he never played in the NBA.

Mikal Bridges Shares Excitement With Knicks Fans At Central Park Event

Mikal Bridges expressed his eagerness to get started with the Knicks during a “Roommates Show Block Party” held Saturday at Central Park, writes Stefan Bondy of The New York Post. The event featured podcast co-hosts Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson, two of Bridges’ new teammates, along with comedian Jon Stewart.

“Long offseason. I got the itch right now,” Bridges told a large crowd at the celebration. “I’m ready right now. I’m active. It’s been too long.”

The Knicks acquired Bridges from Brooklyn in June in one of the major moves of the offseason. He joins fellow Villanova alums Hart, Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo on a team that hopes to reach the NBA Finals for the first time in 25 years. New York advanced to the second round of the playoffs last season, but lost to Indiana in Game 7 amidst a flood of injuries.

The partisan Knicks crowd booed every time the Nets were mentioned Saturday, but Bridges told them he improved during the season and a half he spent in Brooklyn.

“Y’all should appreciate Brooklyn because it made me better,” he said, adding, “my game grew there.”

Bridges began his career in Phoenix after being selected with the 10th pick in the 2018 draft and played in the 2021 NBA Finals on a team that appeared to have a bright future. That changed at the February 2023 trade deadline when the Suns got the opportunity to acquire Kevin Durant from the Nets, with Bridges, Cameron Johnson and a parcel of draft picks heading to Brooklyn in return.

The 28-year-old forward was part of another huge deal this summer when he moved from one New York City borough to another as part of a trade focused on replenishing the Nets’ supply of draft assets.

Among the things Bridges is looking forward to is teaming up with his friends from Villanova.

“I’m pairing up with a lot of psychos,” he said, “and I’m happy to be here.”