Andre Iguodala To Undergo Surgery For Fractured Wrist

Warriors forward Andre Iguodala suffered a fractured left wrist on Monday against Phoenix and will undergo surgery next week, the team announced (via Twitter).

No timetable was given for Iguodala’s potential return, with the Warriors saying an update will be provided after he has surgery.

Iguodala, 39, seriously contemplated retirement before the 2022/23 season began, but was convinced to come back for one more year with the Warriors. However, he has made just eight appearances this season, averaging 2.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG and 2.4 APG in 14.1 MPG.

It’s unclear if this will mark the end of the 19-year veteran’s career; that might depend on how the Warriors finish out the season as they look to defend their title. It’s possible they might need to win at least one playoff series for Iguodala to make it back in time to play again, as wrist fractures typically take several weeks to heal.

A two-time All-Defensive team member, Iguodala has won four championships with Golden State and was the 2015 Finals MVP. In 1,231 regular season games (32.1 MPG), he holds career averages of 11.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.2 APG and 1.2 SPG on .463/.330/.709 shooting.

Suns Hire Gerald Madkins As Assistant GM

6:05pm: Madkins has officially been hired as the Suns’ assistant GM and VP of personnel evaluation (Twitter link via Gerald Bourguet of PHNX Sports).


12:15pm: The Suns are adding veteran NBA executive Gerald Madkins to their front office, reports Marc J. Spears of Andscape (Twitter link).

According to Spears, Madkins will hold the titles of vice president of personnel evaluation and assistant general manager in his new role in Phoenix under GM James Jones.

Madkins, who played in the NBA in the 1990s, later held scouting positions with the Knicks, SuperSonics, and Rockets and was the VP of player personnel for the New Orleans Hornets. He spent several years in the Clippers’ front office from 2012-17, becoming an assistant GM for the club, then left L.A. to serve in an assistant GM role for the Knicks from 2017-20.

It’s unclear whether Jones or new team owner Mat Ishbia was the driving force behind the addition of Madkins, but it’s one of multiple major hires that has been reported since Ishbia took control of the franchise last month.

The Suns also reportedly reached an agreement to make Josh Bartelstein their new CEO, replacing former CEO Jason Rowley. There were rumors in early February suggesting that Isiah Thomas would also be joining Phoenix’s front office in a “prominent” role, but those reports were quickly shot down by the team.

Northwest Notes: Nuggets, Malone, Anderson, Sexton, Butler

After their loss to Toronto on Tuesday, the Nuggets have now dropped four straight games, and they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of opponents during that time. In addition to the loss to Toronto, Denver’s recent defeats have been at the hands of Chicago (by 21 points), San Antonio, and Brooklyn, with two of them coming at home.

On Tuesday, head coach Michael Malone suggested the Nuggets seem to be in “chill mode,” adding that the team needs to find a way to get its “swagger” back (story via ESPN.com).

“Maybe we’ve gotten a little soft with success,” Malone said. “We’ve been on cruise control for so long, No. 1 in the West since like December 15. I just told our players we’ve gotten away from who we are.”

The Nuggets still control the No. 1 spot in the West by four games with just 13 left to play, but Malone will want to see his team firing on all cylinders entering the postseason, since there will be significant pressure on Denver – and its head coach – to make a deep playoff run, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe and Adam Mares of DNVR Sports discussed on the latest episode of The Lowe Post podcast.

“I don’t know if it’s championship or bust, but if this team loses before the conference finals, it’s going to be a disappointment,” Lowe said (hat tip to RealGM). “If they lose in the first round, it’s going to be a catastrophe that I think will push some potential changes.”

Here’s more from around the Northwest:

  • While this season hasn’t played out quite how the Timberwolves hoped, their signing of Kyle Anderson has turned into one of the best free agent additions in team history, contends Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. As Krawczynski acknowledges, Minnesota doesn’t exactly have a long history of great free agent signings, but Anderson’s impact on this year’s club shouldn’t be understated.
  • Jazz guard Collin Sexton, who has been sidelined since February 15 due to a hamstring strain, is “dying” to get back on the court, head coach Will Hardy said this week. “He’s getting close,” Hardy said, according to Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune. “… It’s frustrating ’cause he’s such a competitor and he wants to be out there. But he finds a way to channel all that energy to let it rip on the bench. I’ve had to tell him to sit down multiple times ’cause of the new rule where you can’t stand in the corner, and I’ve had multiple officials say, ‘Hey, you gotta tell Sexton to sit down.’ And I’m like, ‘I’m trying, but I can’t really control him — that’s how he is.'”
  • After appearing in six G League games with Sacramento’s affiliate, Trail Blazers two-way player John Butler Jr. has been transferred back to Portland, the team announced on Tuesday (via Twitter). The Blazers don’t have an NBAGL team of their own, so Butler was in Stockton, where he averaged 8.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 3.2 BPG in 24.0 MPG.

Spurs’ Charles Bassey Diagnosed With Patella Fracture

MARCH 15: The Spurs have confirmed Bassey’s initial diagnosis of a non-displaced patella fracture and he has been ruled out for the remainder of the season.


MARCH 14: Spurs forward Charles Bassey has a non-displaced fracture of his left patella, according to an initial diagnosis, Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News tweets. Bassey will undergo additional testing on Wednesday.

He suffered the injury during the first half of the team’s victory over Orlando on Tuesday.

Coach Gregg Popovich said he learned of Bassey’s diagnosis at halftime, Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News tweets.

“Somebody hit me with that at halftime,” Popovich said. “Poor guy, he was just learning how to play.”

Bassey has appeared in 34 games this season, averaging 5.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per night. He had a pair of 14-point games against Houston earlier this month.

Bassey signed a four-year contract with San Antonio earlier this month, though the last two years are non-guaranteed. Bassey joined the Spurs in October on a two-way contract after being waived by the 76ers.

Bassey had a leg injury that kept him out of action for a chunk of time in January and February. He suffered a tibial plateau fracture during his college career at Western Kentucky.

Trade Breakdown: Eric Gordon To The Clippers (Three-Team Deal)

This is the eighth entry in our series breaking down the significant trades of the 2022/23 season. As opposed to giving out grades, this series explores why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a three-team deal between the Clippers, Rockets and Grizzlies


On February 9:

  • The Clippers acquired Eric Gordon (from the Rockets) and three second-round picks (from the Grizzlies; details here).
  • The Grizzlies acquired Luke Kennard (from the Clippers) and the right to swap a 2026 second-round pick with Los Angeles.
  • The Rockets acquired Danny Green (from the Grizzlies), John Wall (from the Clippers), and the right to swap the Bucks’ 2023 first-round pick for either the Clippers’ or Thunder’s 2023 first-round pick (whichever is least favorable; top-six protected; from Clippers)

The Rockets’ perspective:

Shortly after the trade, both Green and Wall were subsequently released by Houston; Green reached a buyout agreement and later signed with Cleveland, while Wall remains a free agent.

Multiple reports indicated that Houston was interested in keeping Green around, but obviously he had other plans. That makes a lot of sense — the three-time champion is 35 years old and the Rockets are the second-worst team in the NBA after finishing dead last in each of the previous two seasons.

After reaching a buyout with Wall over the summer, the Rockets wound up reacquiring him in this deal following his tumultuous first stint with the franchise. Considering he called his initial go-round “beyond trash,” it’s not surprising that he was waived outright this time.

The Rockets were rumored to be looking for a first-round pick for Gordon for at least a couple of years, and instead of receiving an extra one, they’re going to end up swapping a pick they control for one with much higher upside.

At the time of the trade, the Bucks were 37-17 and the Clippers were 31-27. Those picks would have landed at Nos. 28 and 18, respectively, last month.

The Bucks proceeded to go on a long winning streak and are now 50-19, holding a three-game lead over Boston for the best record in the NBA. Milwaukee’s 2023 first-rounder would currently land at No. 30.

The Clippers are now 36-33. Their first-rounder remains at No. 18.

However, the 34-35 Thunder only trail the Clippers by two games, and they have swap rights with the Clippers – if Oklahoma City passes L.A. in the standings, Houston would instead receive the Thunder’s 2023 first-rounder.

If both the Clippers and Thunder miss the playoffs – which is certainly possible, given how jumbled the standings are – then the Thunder would receive the more favorable of the two lottery picks. Assuming the second pick falls outside of the top six (highly likely given how the NBA’s draft lottery works), that pick would go to Houston, with the Clippers receiving Milwaukee’s pick.

All of that is basically out of the Rockets’ control. The Clippers could easily finish as high as fourth in the West or could drop out of the playoffs entirely – six teams trail them in the standings by three games or less.

Long story short, there’s a chance the Rockets could receive a late lottery pick, but perhaps more likely a pick in the late teens, in exchange for Gordon and a pick in the 27-to-30 range.

Gordon was having a down season for Houston, is 34 years old, and makes $19.57MM this season (his $20.92MM salary for next season is non-guaranteed). I’m honestly surprised the Rockets were able to get as much for him as they did, given those factors.

The Rockets also created a $3.09MM traded player exception in this deal, as noted in our TPE tracker.


The Clippers’ perspective:

Gordon is eight years older than Kennard, and it would be a little surprising if the Clippers bring him back next season on his current contract. Still, he’s a better all-around player than Kennard, and the Clippers did get back three second-rounders from Memphis to somewhat offset giving up a higher value first-rounder to Houston.

While Kennard has remained a highly efficient three-point shooter with the Clippers in ’22/23, he battled a calf strain that sidelined him for significant stretches – he only appeared in 35 of 58 games. He also wasn’t a major part of the team’s playoff rotation a couple years ago and can be frustratingly passive on offense considering he’s a minus on the defensive end – it’s bizarre to see a 44.9% three-point shooter not be more aggressive looking for his shot.

Wall struggled mightily on both ends with Los Angeles, posting a .408/303/.681 shooting line (.498 true shooting percentage) while playing porous defense. Shedding his salary in this deal could be viewed as a bonus, as there were rumors that the Clippers might buy him out if they couldn’t trade him.

Guard play was a major weakness on the roster, and Gordon was a necessary upgrade for a team hoping to compete for a title. Sure, the Clippers took on the most risk in this trade, but you could easily make the argument that not making changes would have been an even bigger risk – both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can opt out of their contracts in 2024, and the team still owes unprotected first-rounders and swaps to the Thunder through 2026 as part of the George trade.

I didn’t view Gordon as having a relatively down season with Houston as that big of a deal. His driving ability was still there, his true shooting percentage (57.2%) remained above average for a guard, and can you really blame him for being frustrated by the situation?

When Gordon signed with the Rockets in 2016, they were a regular playoff team that had already made one conference finals appearance (in 2015). They came very close to making the Finals in 2018, but wound up losing in seven games.

The following season, the Rockets won 53 games and were eliminated by Golden State again, after which Gordon signed an extension. They made the playoffs again in ‘19/20, but everything turned to dust when James Harden requested a trade. The past few seasons Gordon became the de facto elder statesman on a roster full of very young players.

That’s not to say Gordon is still in his physical prime; that came when he first entered the league back in 2008 with the Clippers, the team that selected him No. 7 overall out of Indiana. A couple of significant knee injuries from 2011-12 changed that trajectory.

However, Gordon still evolved into a valuable player, leaning into his long-range shooting and quick first step to attack players off the dribble with Houston. He still possesses those qualities in his 15th NBA season.

In 10 games (25.0 MPG) in his second stint with the Clippers, he’s averaging 10.1 PPG, 1.9 RPG and 2.4 APG on .447/.386/.762 shooting splits (.592 TS%). He has posted a 3.43 assist-to-turnover ratio in those contests, which is an impressive mark.

One of Gordon’s strengths is that he’s self-aware. He knows his job isn’t to be a primary scorer anymore — it’s to shoot open threes, leverage his shooting to drive and draw fouls, or kick out to open shooters. He’s a smart, unselfish passer on the perimeter.

Another positive attribute that Gordon brings to the Clippers is that at 6’3″ and 215 pounds, he has a low center of gravity and a strong core, which allows him to defend forwards. Houston often ran switching schemes in the past, and he’s comfortable as part of a five-out offense as well – two things that Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue favors in the postseason.

Gordon has played the entire fourth quarter in each of the past three games, all victories. I expect that to continue as the Clippers attempt to secure a playoff spot and make a deep postseason run.


The Grizzlies’ perspective:

Memphis had the best available information on Green’s recovery from a torn ACL, as he spent the majority of the season rehabbing – he had just made his season debut on February 1, eight days before the trade deadline. I’m sure the Grizzlies valued his locker room presence, but if they didn’t think he could contribute down the stretch, there wasn’t much to be gained by keeping him around, as his contract was set to expire at the end of the season.

Kennard, on the other hand, is only 26 years old, nine years younger than Green. He brings a much-needed skill to the Grizzlies, who rank just 25th in the league in three-point percentage (34.3%).

The lefty sharpshooter out of Duke led the league in three-point shooting last season and has matched that stellar mark (44.9%) in 46 total games in ‘22/23. Kennard is also under team control for multiple seasons – he’ll make $15.42MM in ’23/24 and the Grizzlies will hold a team option for the same salary in ’24/25.

Kennard has shown in the past that he has some play-making chops as well, averaging 4.1 APG back in ‘19/20 with Detroit. Through 11 games (21.0 MPG) with Memphis, he’s averaging 6.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 1.9 APG on .404/.455/1.000 shooting splits (.611 TS%).

The Grizzlies’ roster is full of players in their early-to-mid 20s, with veteran center Steven Adams the elder statesman at 29. Kennard fits perfectly with their timeline as far as that goes, and he’s young enough that he could certainly improve in the coming years.

As previously mentioned, Kennard is not a great individual defender, but he does fine in team concepts and is generally in the right spots. The Grizzlies have a few excellent defensive players on the roster, so perhaps they will be able to mask some of his weaknesses.

This could be viewed as both a short- and long-term upgrade for the Grizzlies, and adding Kennard’s extra salary this season (he makes $14.42MM this season vs. Green’s outgoing $10MM salary) didn’t affect the team much financially, as they’re still well below the luxury tax threshold.

Kennard’s mid-sized contract isn’t onerous given his age and shooting ability. The Grizzlies could conceivably use him as a salary-matching piece in the future as well if they’re so inclined.

Two-to-four second-round picks seemed to be a sweet spot for landing role player upgrades at the deadline. The Grizzlies moved three to land Kennard, but still have all of their own future first-rounders – along with one extra in 2024 – if they want to make a major trade down the line.

It’s interesting that the Clippers agreed to send Kennard to a Western Conference rival, particularly one they might have to face in the postseason. I’m sure he would have a little extra motivation if the Grizzlies are matched up against the Clippers in the playoffs.

Mavericks Notes: Doncic, Irving, Morris, Kidd

All-NBA guard Luka Doncic (left thigh strain) will remain unavailable on Wednesday when the Mavericks visit San Antonio, the team confirmed (via Twitter). However, according to Tim MacMahon of ESPN (Twitter link), Doncic did accompany the Mavs on their road trip, which will continue in Los Angeles on Friday and Memphis on Monday.

As for Doncic’s backcourt mate, Kyrie Irving (right foot soreness) was listed as questionable for Wednesday’s contest, but said today that it’s “not looking good” for him to return, per MacMahon (Twitter link). It would be a third straight missed game for Irving, who continues to experience pain, especially in his big toe.

“This injury on my foot, it’s going to take a little bit more time than I thought,” Irving said (Twitter link via MacMahon). “It’s obviously still day to day, but we’ve just got to take more time.

“It’s right around my big toe, right around my plantar. I took a wrong step in New Orleans and it just felt like my knuckles cracked. I just wanted to take precautionary (measures) at this point in the season. I make my whole entire living with my feet, so I’d rather take care of it now than when I’m 40 years old.”

Here’s more on the Mavs:

  • The other player Dallas acquired in the Irving trade will also likely be unavailable on Wednesday in San Antonio, as Markieff Morris (left knee soreness) has been downgraded from questionable to doubtful, according to the team (Twitter link). Morris has only logged 24 minutes across five appearances since joining the Mavs.
  • Having lost three consecutive games and nine of their last 12, the Mavericks now hold the ninth seed in the West and have fallen below .500 (34-35). Tim Cato of The Athletic wonders if Dallas’ season is beyond fixing, but identifies five ways the team might turn things around, including playing by more pragmatic lineups and committing to a direction with Christian Wood.
  • This year’s Mavericks may be charting the same course the Hawks did in 2022, when Atlanta was quickly eliminated in the first round of the playoffs after making it to the Eastern Conference Finals a year earlier, writes Tim Cowlishaw of The Dallas Morning News. The Hawks’ inability to recapture their 2021 form ultimately led to Nate McMillan‘s dismissal this year, Cowlishaw notes, adding that it’s hard to say where things will stand for Jason Kidd if the Mavs don’t bounce back in the next few weeks.

Ja Morant Meets With Adam Silver, Receives Suspension

2:02pm: The NBA has suspended Morant for eight games without pay, the league announced today in a press release (Twitter link). However, that suspension will be retroactive to March 5, the first game he missed, so he’ll be eligible to return to action this coming Monday (March 20).

According to the NBA’s announcement, its investigation did not determine that the gun Morant brandished in the Instagram Live video belonged to him or that he brought it to the night club. The investigation also didn’t find that Morant possessed the gun while traveling with the Grizzlies or at any NBA facility.

“Ja’s conduct was irresponsible, reckless, and potentially very dangerous,” Silver said in a statement. “It also has serious consequences given his enormous following and influence, particularly among young fans who look up to him.

“He has expressed sincere contrition and remorse for this behavior. Ja has also made it clear to me that he has learned from this incident and that he understands his obligations and responsibility to the Memphis Grizzlies and the broader NBA community extend well beyond his play on the court.”

After being away from the Grizzlies for multiple weeks, Morant may not suit up on Monday immediately upon rejoining the team, but the expectation it that his return will occur not long after that, tweets Chris Herrington of The Daily Memphian.

Morant’s eight missed games will cost him nearly $669K in salary, tweets Bobby Marks of ESPN. His base salary for this season had been approximately $12.1MM.


1:54pm: Grizzlies star Ja Morant met with NBA commissioner Adam Silver in New York on Wednesday, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (Twitter link).

While Wojnarowski doesn’t offer any details on what was discussed during that meeting, he says Morant has left his counseling program in Florida and is moving closer to preparing for a return to the court. However, the All-Star guard will have to wait until the NBA announces the results of its investigation into his Instagram Live video from a Denver-area strip club, which is expected to happen soon, per Wojnarowski.

The NBA opened a probe into Morant after he posted a video in which he flashed a gun at a strip club. It was the latest in a series of troubling off-court incidents allegedly involving the 23-year-old, who punched a 17-year-old during a pickup game last summer, was accused of threatening a security guard at a Memphis mall, and was reportedly involved in a confrontation with members of the Pacers’ traveling party after a January game.

After the league announced it was looking into the latest incident involving Morant, the Grizzlies said that he would be away from the team for two games, then four more. He’ll miss his sixth game on Wednesday night when Memphis visits the Heat in Miami and it sounds like his status beyond that will be determined in large part by the outcome of the NBA’s investigation.

Police also investigated the strip club video and didn’t find enough evidence to bring any charges against Morant, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the league will close its own probe without disciplining the Grizzlies guard.

The NBA has a good deal of latitude to fine or suspend players for conduct detrimental to the league’s best interests. The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement also includes language specifically related to firearms, so if there’s evidence that Morant had a gun on him when traveling with the team or when at a team facility, that could result in a more punitive penalty.

Still, based on the tone of Wojnarowski’s latest report, it doesn’t sound like the league is preparing to drop the hammer on Morant.

Here’s more on the Grizzlies’ star:

  • While news of Morant entering a counseling program didn’t break until this Monday, he took that step earlier in the month, shortly after announcing that he would be away from the team, sources tell Wojnarowski (Twitter link).
  • While he was in Florida undergoing counseling, Morant was communicating with his Memphis teammates via text and FaceTime video, per Joe Vardon of The Athletic. Vardon adds that Morant was accompanied to that “retreat-like setting” in Florida by a Grizzlies security officer.
  • In a separate story for The Athletic, Vardon spoke to a handful of Grizzlies players about their conversations with Morant and noted that they seemed to be operating under the belief that the star guard would rejoin the club, possibly very soon. Grizzlies forward Dillon Brooks said Morant has “made strides” and is “ready to come back.”

NBA Suspends Kings’ Trey Lyles, Fines Bucks’ Brook Lopez

Kings forward Trey Lyles has been suspended for one game without pay and Bucks center Brook Lopez has been fined $25K for their roles in an on-court altercation between the two teams in Sacramento on Monday, the NBA announced today in a press release (Twitter link).

During the final seconds of the Bucks’ win over the Kings, Lyles took exception to Giannis Antetokounmpo dribbling the ball toward him while running out the clock. He tried to steal the ball away, then shoved Antetokounmpo. Lopez jumped to his teammate’s defense, resulting in a brief on-court skirmish between the two teams (Twitter video link via Bleacher Report).

Both Lyles and Lopez were ejected from the game, and the NBA said in today’s announcement that the two big men were disciplined further for escalating the situation — Lopez did so by confronting Lyles, then the Kings forward escalated matters further by “striking Lopez in the face” and “grabbing and holding Lopez around the neck area.”

As a result of his one-game ban, Lyles will miss Wednesday’s game in Chicago and will forfeit about $18K, which is 1/145th of his $2.63MM salary for the season.

Lopez’s $25K fine will come out of his $13.9MM salary for 2022/23.

Timberwolves Say Towns Expected To Return In “Coming Weeks”

The Timberwolves have been relatively quiet on Karl-Anthony Towns‘ status since he was diagnosed with a right calf strain in late November, but the team put out a press release on Wednesday formally issuing an update on the forward/center.

According to the Wolves, Towns has progressed in his rehab process and is participating in basketball activities. The expectation is that he’ll return to action in “the coming weeks,” per the club.

That phrasing is pretty vague, but with three-and-a-half weeks left in the regular season, it sounds like the Wolves remain hopeful that they’ll get Towns back before the postseason gets underway. As Chris Hine of The Star Tribune observes (via Twitter), the club didn’t have to make an announcement on Towns’ status at this point, so the fact that it did so anyway suggests there’s optimism he’ll play this spring.

At 35-34, Minnesota currently controls the No. 7 seed in the West, but there’s not much room for error — the Thunder, Mavericks, and Lakers are all just one game back at 34-35.

Towns, who sustained his calf injury on November 28, was still adjusting to playing alongside newcomer Rudy Gobert when he went down. His scoring average (20.8 PPG), rebounding rate (8.2 RPG), and three-point percentage (32.5%) were all career worsts or close to it, though he was still making 50.5% of his shots from the field and was thriving as a facilitator, with a career-best 5.3 APG.

One report around the time of his injury suggested Towns would miss about four-to-six weeks and should be back on the floor in January. However, his recovery process has extended well beyond that, and the 27-year-old expressed some frustration in January about that initial reporting, referring to his injury as “significant” and indicating that he was always going to be out for more than four-to-six weeks.

If and when Towns returns, he’ll have more adjusting to do, as the Wolves have changed point guards since his injury — Mike Conley is now the team’s floor leader, replacing D’Angelo Russell.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Draft Lottery

The NBA’s draft lottery, which takes place annually between the end of the regular season and the draft, is the league’s way of determining the draft order and disincentivizing second-half tanking. The lottery gives each of the 14 non-playoff teams – or whichever clubs hold those teams’ first-round picks – a chance to land one of the top four selections in the draft.

Although the top four picks of each draft are up for grabs via the lottery, the remaining order is determined by record, worst to best. The league’s worst team isn’t guaranteed a top-four spot in the draft, but is tied for the best chance to land the first overall pick and will receive the fifth overall selection at worst.

The first four picks are determined by a draw of ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14. Four balls are drawn, resulting in a total of 1,001 possible outcomes. 1,000 of those outcomes are assigned to the 14-non playoff teams — for instance, if balls numbered 4, 7, 8, and 13 were chosen, that combination would belong to one of the 14 lottery teams. The 1,001st combination remains unassigned, and a re-draw would occur if it were ever selected.

The team whose combination is drawn first receives the number one overall pick, and the process is repeated to determine picks two, three, and four. The 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are all assigned a specific number of combinations, as follows (worst to best):

  1. 140 combinations, 14.0% chance of receiving the first overall pick
  2. 140 combinations, 14.0%
  3. 140 combinations, 14.0%
  4. 125 combinations, 12.5%
  5. 105 combinations, 10.5%
  6. 90 combinations, 9.0%
  7. 75 combinations, 7.5%
  8. 60 combinations, 6.0%
  9. 45 combinations, 4.5%
  10. 30 combinations, 3.0%
  11. 20 combinations, 2.0%
  12. 15 combinations, 1.5%
  13. 10 combinations, 1.0%
  14. 5 combinations, 0.5%

If two lottery teams finish the season with identical records, each team receives an equal chance at a top-four pick by averaging the total amount of outcomes for their two positions. For instance, if two teams tie for the league’s fourth-worst record, each club would receive 115 combinations and an 11.5% chance at the first overall pick — an average of the 125 and 105 combinations that the fourth- and fifth-worst teams receive.

If the average amount of combinations for two positions isn’t a whole number, a coin flip determines which team receives the extra combination. For example, if two clubs tied for the league’s third-worst record, the team that wins the coin flip would receive 133 of 1,000 chances at the first overall pick, while the loser would receive 132. The coin flip also determines which team will draft higher in the event that neither club earns a top-four pick.

The table below displays the odds for each lottery team, rounded to one decimal place. Seeds are listed in the left column, while the picks are noted along the top row. For our purposes, the first seed is the NBA’s worst team.

Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1 14 13.4 12.7 12 47.9
2 14 13.4 12.7 12 27.8 20
3 14 13.4 12.7 12 14.8 26 7
4 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.5 7.2 25.7 16.7 2.2
5 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 2.2 19.6 26.7 8.7 0.6
6 9 9.2 9.4 9.6 8.6 29.8 20.6 3.7 0.1
7 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.5 19.7 34.1 12.9 1.3 >0
8 6 6.3 6.7 7.2 34.5 32.1 6.7 0.4 >0
9 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.7 50.7 25.9 3 0.1 >0
10 3 3.3 3.6 4 65.9 19 1.2 >0 >0
11 2 2.2 2.4 2.8 77.6 12.6 0.4 >0
12 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 86.1 6.7 0.1
13 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 92.9 2.3
14 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 97.6

The NBA’s lottery format was changed in 2019, with that year’s draft representing the first one that used the new system. Previously, only the top three spots were determined via the lottery and the odds were weighted more heavily in favor of the league’s worst teams.

Beginning in 2021, the NBA’s lottery underwent another small change when the league introduced the play-in tournament. The lottery now includes the 10 teams that miss out on the playoffs and the play-in tournament, plus the four clubs that are eliminated in the play-in portion of the postseason.

That means a team can finish the regular season ranked seventh or eighth in its conference, but if that club is eliminated in the play-in tournament, it will be in the lottery. Conversely, a team that finishes ninth or 10th in its conference during the regular season and then wins a pair of play-in games to earn a playoff spot will be a non-lottery team.

Once the 14 lottery teams are determined, their lottery odds are still dictated by their regular season records, so the play-in losers won’t necessarily be the 11-14 “seeds” in the lottery. For example, in 2022, the 34-48 Spurs ended up with better lottery odds than the 37-45 Knicks or 35-47 Wizards, even though San Antonio participated in the Western Conference play-in tournament while New York and Washington didn’t qualify for the East’s play-in.


Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Information from Tankathon.com and Wikipedia was used in the creation of this post. Earlier versions of this post were published in past years.