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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat

June 11th, 2024 at 10:32am CST by Luke Adams

Entering opening night last fall, the Heat were coming off one of the most unusual seasons in recent memory. They barely finished above .500 during the 2022/23 regular season, posting a negative net rating (-0.5) across 82 games, then narrowly survived the play-in tournament to earn the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. From there, they knocked off the Bucks, Knicks, and Celtics in their first three postseason series, coming within three wins of a championship before ultimately falling to Denver.

During the subsequent 2023/24 season, Erik Spoelstra repeatedly insisted that his team wasn’t counting on a repeat of the year before and was taking the regular season seriously rather than waiting to turn it on in the postseason. But injuries and inconsistency resulted in a pretty similar outcome. Miami won 46 games instead of 44 and outscored its opponents, but once again finished in the bottom half of the league in net rating and needed a win in its second play-in game to grab the No. 8 playoff seed.

This time around, there was no postseason magic for the Heat, who were missing star Jimmy Butler due to a knee injury and managed just a single win over the top-seeded Celtics before their season came to an unceremonious end.

On one hand, the Heat are just one year removed from winning the East and perhaps could have made a deeper run this spring with a healthy Butler and a more favorable first-round matchup. But that’s a rosy view of their situation. The regular season results show that this team has been a relatively middle-of-the-pack squad over the past two seasons and, with Butler entering his age-35 season, probably can’t consider itself a legitimate title contender without some tweaks to the roster.

Based on what’s transpired since their season ended (more on that below), I wouldn’t rule out major offseason changes for the Heat, but it’s not in their DNA to fully rebuild (they haven’t won fewer than 37 games since 2007/08). So even if next season’s roster looks quite a bit different than the ’23/24 group, the goal will be to get further in the 2025 playoffs than they did this year.

The Heat’s Offseason Plan

The most pressing question facing the Heat this summer is whether or not Butler will still be on the roster on opening night. A breakup would be a bit of a surprise, given that the past five years have seemed like a near-perfect marriage between one of the NBA’s most competitive stars and a franchise that prides itself on its hard-working culture.

But shortly after the Heat’s season ended, word broke that Butler would be seeking another maximum-salary extension this summer, looking to replace his 2025/26 player option with a new two-year deal worth approximately $113MM. Asked at his end-of-season press conference about that possibility, longtime team president Pat Riley didn’t explicitly say whether or not the Heat would be willing to put that offer on the table, but suggested they wouldn’t exactly be eager to do so.

“It’s a big decision on our part to commit those kinds of resources, unless you have someone who is going to be available every night,” Riley said, referring to an injury history that has forced Butler to miss at least 15 games in every season since he arrived in Miami in 2019.

Riley also didn’t approve of a viral video that showed Butler claiming the Heat would’ve been able to beat Boston and New York if he’d been available to play in the postseason. The Heat president told reporters, “If you’re not on the court playing against Boston or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut on the criticism of those teams.”

A thinner-skinned player might respond to those comments by submitting a trade request, but the ability to be frank and honest with one another is an important reason why the relationship between Butler and the Heat has worked. I wouldn’t expect him to seek a change of scenery this offseason due to hurt feelings. But if Miami is unwilling to put an appealing extension offer on the table this summer, he might become more inclined to weigh all his options as he enters the final stage of his career.

While the Heat would be under no obligation to move Butler if he asked to be traded, he showed earlier in his career in Minnesota that he can make life difficult for his current team if his demands aren’t met. Still, I’m not necessarily counting on the situation coming to a head this offseason. Miami would have a hard time turning Butler into a player – or multiple players – who could increase the club’s ceiling in 2024/25, and the 34-year-old has been in the league long enough to know that the grass isn’t always greener in a new environment.

Three-time All-Star center Bam Adebayo will also be extension-eligible this summer and looks like a better bet than Butler to get a maximum-salary offer from the Heat, given his edge in age (27 in July) and availability (he has missed more than 11 games just once in the past five seasons). A max deal for Adebayo would be worth approximately $165MM over three years. He could potentially become eligible for more years and more money with an All-NBA berth or a Defensive Player of the Year trophy next summer, but I could see the big man opting to lock in that long-term guaranteed money now.

If building around Butler and Adebayo remains the plan going forward, I’d expect some combination of Tyler Herro ($29MM), Terry Rozier ($24.9MM), and Duncan Robinson ($19.4MM) – and perhaps all three – to be mentioned in trade rumors this summer. As long as they’re able to operate below the second tax apron, the Heat would be permitted to aggregate those salaries in a trade for another star, and the franchise has made a habit of going star-hunting over the years, including in the 2023 offseason when its bid for Damian Lillard came up short.

Cleveland (Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland) and Atlanta (Trae Young, Dejounte Murray) are among the situations the Heat figure to keep an eye on this offseason, with Mitchell in particular having long been considered a prime target.

If Mitchell or another well-fitting impact player hits the trade market, it’s possible a rival suitor would outbid Miami, like the Bucks did last year with Lillard. But the team has some strong trade assets, including All-Rookie first-teamer Jaime Jaquez, 21-year-old forward Nikola Jovic, this year’s No. 15 overall pick, and at least one future first-rounder — the Heat have traded away their 2025 and 2027 first-rounders, but protections could push those picks back to 2026 and 2028, so only the ’30 pick can be traded unconditionally, though the club could offer a handful of first-round swaps.

The more prudent approach to the offseason might be to keep those youngsters, who are on team-friendly contracts for multiple years, trust the scouting department to find another potential gem at No. 15, and perhaps attempt to make a less significant move involving one of Herro, Rozier, or Robinson. There’s a good deal of overlap in that trio — both Herro and Robinson provide most of their value with floor-spacing and outside shooting, while both Herro and Rozier are score-first guards – so if the Heat could find a way to turn one of them into more of a two-way wing or a traditional point guard, it would help balance the roster.

The Heat will have a sizable hole to fill on the wing if they’re unable to re-sign Caleb Martin, who is expected to turn down a $7.1MM player option, and Haywood Highsmith, who is headed for unrestricted free agency. Both players are due for raises and could be targeted by teams who have the full mid-level exception available.

The situation with those two players feels awfully reminiscent of the one the club faced with Max Strus and Gabe Vincent a year ago, when luxury tax concerns limited what Miami was able to offer that free agent duo. Strus ultimately agreed to join the Cavaliers, while Vincent signed with the Lakers.

The Heat already have over $163MM in guaranteed money on their books for seven players in 2024/25, and that figure would rise by another $14MM+ if Kevin Love, Josh Richardson, and Thomas Bryant exercise their player options and the team hangs onto its first-round pick. That would push team salary above $177MM, essentially assuring the Heat will operate over the first tax apron ($178.7MM) even without new deals for Martin or Highsmith.

Retaining either player would likely increase team salary beyond the $189.5MM second apron, so Miami will have a decision to make. It can resign itself to losing two solid role players for a second straight summer, try to shed salary elsewhere to create room under the second apron to bring back Martin and/or Highsmith, or simply re-sign both players and commit to being a second-apron team, accepting the roster-building restrictions that come with that.

None of those options are ideal, and the third one seems especially unlikely, given that the Heat will want to maintain the flexibility to aggregate salaries if a star becomes available. I expect the club to explore the second path in an effort to retain at least one of those two free agents, but if that’s not possible, Heat fans can at least take solace in the fact that the front office has done a good job over the years finding low-cost replacements to fill out the rotation when certain role players get too expensive.

The Heat will also benefit from the fact that there’s never a shortage of veterans who want to play in Miami due to a combination of the weather, the culture, and the organization’s distaste for rebuilding. Richardson missed half the season due to an injury and Bryant wasn’t quite as good a fit as the front office had hoped, but those are high-quality players for the minimum-salary tier, as is Love. Whether or not those guys opt in to return for another season, the Heat will likely head back to the free agent market in search of more minimum-salary bargains to fill out the back end of their roster.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • Orlando Robinson ($2,120,693)
    • Robinson’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 15.
  • Total: $2,120,693

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Heat, Cain’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). That offer would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

  • No. 15 overall pick ($4,244,160 cap hold)
  • No. 43 overall pick (no cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $4,244,160

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Bam Adebayo (veteran)
  • Jimmy Butler (veteran)
  • Haywood Highsmith (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.
  • Caleb Martin (veteran)
    • Player option must be exercised.
  • Duncan Robinson (veteran)
  • Terry Rozier (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Heat project to operate over the cap and over the first tax apron. If they move below the first apron, they would gain access to the bi-annual exception ($4,681,000) and the full mid-level exception ($12,859,000) instead of the taxpayer mid-level exception and would regain access to their three trade exceptions (the largest of which is worth $9,450,000 and expires on July 8). If they surpass the second tax apron, they would lose access to the taxpayer MLE.

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,183,000
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Yuta Watanabe Expected To Join Chiba Jets

June 11th, 2024 at 8:38am CST by Luke Adams

After announcing during an Instagram Live session in April that he plans to return to his home country of Japan, Grizzlies forward Yuta Watanabe is widely expected to sign with the Chiba Jets, sources tell Donatas Urbonas of BasketNews.com. Nothing is official yet, but Urbonas classifies the move as “close.”

Watanabe, 29, was born and raised in Japan, then played his college ball in the U.S. at George Washington from 2014-18. The undrafted 6’9″ forward spent a pair of seasons with the Grizzlies from 2018-20 and two years in Toronto from 2020-22. He enjoyed his best NBA season in Brooklyn in 2022/23, averaging 5.6 points and 2.4 rebounds per game off the bench while ranking among the league leaders in three-point percentage (44.4%).

Watanabe’s solid showing with the Nets earned him a two-year, minimum-salary contract from the Suns last summer, but he ended up not playing a major role in Phoenix, averaging just 13.2 minutes per game in 29 appearances before being traded to Memphis in February as part of the three-team deadline deal that sent Royce O’Neale and David Roddy to the Suns. Having joined an injury-plagued roster in his return to Memphis, Watanabe had a path to regular minutes, but he was limited to just five games due to a wrist issue and personal reasons.

The contract Watanabe signed with Phoenix includes a minimum-salary player option for 2024/25 worth about $2.65MM. It stands to reason that if he signs a new contract in Japan, he’d decline that option, though his decision has yet to be formally reported.

While it’s not a significant number, moving Watanabe’s salary off their cap for next season would help out the Grizzlies, who could be facing a luxury-tax crunch this summer and likely didn’t have the veteran in their plans going forward.

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Suns To Hire Mike Hopkins As Assistant Coach

June 11th, 2024 at 7:14am CST by Luke Adams

The Suns have reached a deal with Mike Hopkins to bring the former University of Washington coach aboard as an assistant on Mike Budenholzer‘s staff, sources tell Adrian Wojnarowski and Pete Thamel of ESPN.

Hopkins, who played college basketball at Syracuse from 1989-93, rejoined the Orange as an assistant coach in 1995 and spent over two decades in that role, briefly serving as acting head coach during Jim Boeheim‘s nine-game suspension in 2015/16.

In 2017, Hopkins was hired by Washington as the head coach of the school’s men’s basketball team. He earned Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors in his first two seasons on the job (2018 and 2019) and won a regular season conference title in 2019. However, the Huskies announced earlier this year that he wouldn’t be returning for the 2024/25 season after posting a 122-110 (.526) record across his seven years with the program.

As Wojnarowski and Thamel point out, Hopkins has worked with NBA players before, having been involved with the coaching staffs of several Team USA squads over the years.

Since being hired by the Suns last month to replace Frank Vogel, Budenholzer has been slowly building out his staff for his first year in Phoenix. David Fizdale, Vince Legarza, Chad Forcier, and Chaisson Allen are among the other coaches expected to be Suns assistants under Budenholzer.

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Thunder Could Make Serious Run At Hartenstein

June 10th, 2024 at 10:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Knicks center Isaiah Hartenstein pumped up his value this season during his walk year. They’ll have competition for his services and the Thunder are viewed as the main threat, according to Stefan Bondy of the New York Post.

Hartenstein made approximately $9.25MM this season and he’ll get a huge raise this summer. The Knicks hold his Early Bird rights and can offer a maximum of about $72MM over four years.

That might not be enough to keep Hartenstein, who started 49 regular-season games after Mitchell Robinson was injured and all 13 of the Knicks’ postseason contests. One recent report said the 26-year-old could receive $80-$100MM on a new deal from a team with cap room.

The Thunder will have around $35MM in cap space. While Rookie of the Year runner-up Chet Holmgren manned the middle for the Thunder, Hartenstein could provide a different element.

Yahoo Sports’ Jake Fischer recently noted that Hartenstein would help OKC with his rebounding, screening and passing. Rebounding was a major issue for the Western Conference’s top seed.

The Thunder will soon need to make some major salary commitments to keep its strong young core intact, so they make take a different approach with Hartenstein. Citing a source, Bondy suggests OKC might offer a short-term deal, perhaps two years, with a high salary. That would provide both OKC and Hartenstein with long-term flexibility.

OKC could go with a bigger starting lineup, sliding Holmgren to the power forward slot, or use Hartenstein as their main frontcourt reserve.

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Mavericks Notes: Irving, Doncic, Washington, Celtics’ Talent

June 10th, 2024 at 10:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Kyrie Irving has pulled a disappearing act in the first two games of the Finals, Stefan Bondy of the New York Post writes.

The Mavericks guard has scored a total of 28 points on 13-for-37 shooting in the series after pouring in 30-plus points six times earlier in the postseason, Bondy notes.

“A lot of shots were hitting the back rim. That could piss you off as a competitor, but it’s all part of the game of basketball,” Irving said, adding, “A little disappointed in myself not being able to convert a lot more on my opportunities that I have in the lane. Obviously, I’m going against Jrue Holiday and Jaylen Brown a few times, but I feel like I have the upper edge on certain possessions where I’ve just got to convert. They are pushing me to my left hand a little bit more. I have to be aware of some of their adjustments, like I was in Game 1. … Offensively, I have to play better.”

We have more on the Mavs:

  • Despite posting a triple-double in Game 2, Luka Doncic put the blame on himself for the 105-98 loss, according to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon. Doncic committed eight turnovers and missed half of his eight free throws. “I think my turnovers and my missed free throws cost us the game,” Doncic said. Coach Jason Kidd disagreed with his superstar’s assessment. “He was really good (Sunday). Unfortunately, we just couldn’t get over the hump,” Kidd said. “I thought our defense was really, really good. We’ve just got to take care of the ball.”
  • While the West is generally considered the toughest of the two conferences, P.J. Washington says the Celtics are superior to any of the teams they’ve faced in the playoffs. “They’re just better,” he said, per Tim Cato of The Athletic. “At the end of the day, they are better than all the teams we’ve played. It’s the Finals, and we’ve just got to be better.”
  • Following along that theme, John Hollinger of The Athletic writes that of the seven best players in the series, all but two are playing for the Celtics. He concludes the only way Dallas can rally to win the series is if the Celtics beat themselves.
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Pistons To Hire Michael Blackstone As Langdon’s Top Lieutenant

June 10th, 2024 at 8:36pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Pistons are hiring Michael Blackstone as their executive VP of basketball operations, Omari Sankofa of the Detroit Free Press reports.

Blackstone will be the second in command under new president of basketball operations Trajan Langdon. Blackstone has updated his social media bio, stating he now works for the Pistons organization.

Blackstone had worked with Langdon as the Pelicans’ VP of basketball administration since the 2020/21 season. He had been considered the favorite to land the job as Langdon’s right-hand man.

Sankofa confirms the Pistons are also hiring Nets director of player personnel J.R. Holden in an executive role.

Blackstone was an assistant GM in Atlanta before coming to New Orleans. He was also the executive director of basketball operations with the Cavaliers from 2010-13.

The Pistons parted ways with GM Troy Weaver at the beginning of the month. Weaver’s rebuilding project was a failure, as the Pistons finished with the worst record in the league this season.

Langdon and his assistant will have over $60MM in cap space this summer to make the team more competitive. The Pistons hold the No. 5 pick in the draft after falling in the lottery.

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Central Notes: Pistons, Cavaliers, Borrego, Atkinson, Ham

June 10th, 2024 at 7:09pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Gary Trent Jr. could fit next to Cade Cunningham as a three-point threat and floor spacer. Naji Marshall could fit in as a three-and-D wing. Goga Bitadze could provide much needed rim protector. They are among a dozen under-the-radar free agents that might make sense for the Pistons, Omari Sankofa II writes for the Detroit Free Press. Detroit could have as much as $64MM in cap space as the team looks to rise from the bottom of the league.

We  have more from the Central Division:

  • Adem Bona (UCLA), Ta’Lon Cooper (South Carolina), Tyler Thomas (Hofstra) and Kel’el Ware (Indiana) visited the Cavaliers on Monday in a pre-draft workout, Adam Zagoria tweets. Big men Ware and Bona are considered potential first-rounders. Ware is currently rated No. 24 overall on ESPN’s Best Available list while Bona is ranked at No. 37. The Cavaliers currently hold the No. 20 pick.
  • Pelicans associate head coach James Borrego, still a candidate for the Lakers’ head coaching job, is expected to interview for the Cavaliers head coaching position early this week, Brian Windhorst of ESPN reports. Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson is also scheduled for a visit.
  • Speaking of the Cavaliers, they could have a very intriguing offseason if they decide to break up their backcourt duo of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell or their frontcourt pairing of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Keith Smith delves into those topics, among others, in his offseason preview for Spotrac.
  • Darvin Ham’s return to the Bucks as an assistant makes a lot of sense, according to The Athletic’s Eric Nehm. He’s well-respected by the team’s veterans and maintained his relationships with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton. It’s also a good spot for him to restore his reputation with an eye on getting another head coaching job.
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Celtics Notes: White, Walsh, Horford, Series Outlook

June 10th, 2024 at 5:31pm CST by Dana Gauruder

It’s going to get even more expensive for the Celtics to keep their core group together. Derrick White, who has excelled during the postseason, will be seeking a contract extension this summer, Marc Stein reports in his latest Substack article.

White will make $20MM next season in the last year of the four-year deal he signed with the Spurs. He’s eligible for another four-year deal that would max out in the neighborhood of $126MM. The remainder of the Celtics’ starting lineup is signed through at least the 2025/26 season, with all making at least $29MM per season.

We  have more on the Celtics:

  • The lone rookie on the team, Jordan Walsh,  has only appeared in two postseason games but he’s contributing in other ways, Souichi Terada of Masslive.com writes. He’s trying to push Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown whenever he’s matched up against the star wing duo in practice. “I’m here to kill you in practice. I don’t care who you are, I’m trying to kill. So that’s kind of the mentality I have,” he said.
  • Al Horford‘s experience and leadership is invaluable to the team, Baxter Holmes of ESPN writes in a feature story. “The bottom line is, we are much better because Al Horford is on our team, and everybody in the room is better because Al Horford is on the team,” top executive Brad Stevens said. “That’s the most important thing. He raises all ships. That’s just the way he’s always been. We don’t take that for granted. We know how important he is.” Horford’s on-court contributions have remained steady –he’s averaging 9.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.0 assists per game in the postseason.
  • The ESPN trio of Brian Windhorst, Marc Spears and Dave McMenamin provide their observations and expectations for the remainder of the NBA Finals between the Celtics and Mavericks.
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Nikola Jokic Included On Serbia’s Preliminary Olympic Roster

June 10th, 2024 at 3:52pm CST by Luke Adams

The Serbian national team has officially unveiled its preliminary roster for the 2024 Olympics, and that group is headlined by a noteworthy name. Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is one of the 16 players on Serbia’s preliminary roster, which will be cut down to 12 players for this summer’s games in Paris.

Jokic was noncommittal when asked last month at the end of Denver’s season whether he intended to play for Serbia in the Olympics. Svetislav Pesic, the head coach of the national team, recently stated that the Nuggets star remained undecided. Jokic’s inclusion on the 16-man preliminary roster doesn’t guarantee he’ll be in Paris, but it’s a signal that he’s planning to participate.

Even without Jokic, the Serbians claimed a silver medal at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, falling to Germany in the final but qualifying for the Olympics based on that deep World Cup run. Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic and Heat forward Nikola Jovic were among the key players on that team.

Bogdanovic and Jovic are also on the preliminary Olympic roster, and are joined by three more NBA players in Jokic, Hornets guard Vasilije Micic, and Hornets forward Aleksej Pokusevski. Filip Petrusev and Marko Guduric previously played in the NBA, while Nikola Milutinov, Ognjen Jaramaz, and Vanja Marinkovic were selected in past drafts but have never signed NBA contracts.

Serbia will be in Group C along with the United States at the Olympics and can secure a spot in the quarterfinals with a top-two finish in round-robin play. South Sudan and the winner of an Olympic qualifying tournament in Puerto Rico (Lithuania is the top-rated club in that six-team tournament) will be the other competition in Group C. Assuming Jokic plays, he could end up facing fellow Nuggets star Jamal Murray – who will suit up for Canada – at some point in the single-elimination portion of the event.

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2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

June 10th, 2024 at 2:15pm CST by Luke Adams

Mat Ishbia made it clear in February 2023 when he took over majority control of the Suns from Robert Sarver that he was prepared to spend aggressively (both in terms of money and trade assets) in a way the team’s previous owner never did. One of his very first moves was to approve a massive deal for star forward Kevin Durant at the 2023 deadline. He doubled down on that all-in strategy by signing off on a blockbuster trade for Bradley Beal last offseason.

The moves left Phoenix with a top-heavy roster headed by three players who will earn a combined $150MM+ in 2024/25 when Devin Booker‘s new super-max extension begins. That trio will surpass the projected $141MM cap on its own, and once the Suns account for salaries for Jusuf Nurkic ($18.1MM), Grayson Allen ($15.6MM), and Nassir Little ($6.8MM), their team salary will exceed $191MM, putting them over the projected second tax apron of $189.5MM with just six players. Even filling out the rest of the roster with minimum-salary players will push team salary well past the $200MM mark.

Operating over the second apron means two things: Phoenix will be on the hook for a huge luxury tax bill and will also face major restrictions when it comes to making roster moves. Ishbia clearly doesn’t mind writing a big check for luxury tax penalties, so the money shouldn’t be an issue, but those roster-building restrictions are concerning. This team was hardly dominant in its first year together. The Suns clinched a playoff spot on the final day of the season, then were swept out of the first round. The front office can’t simply run it back with the same roster.

Changes are needed, and those changes will be difficult to enact as a second-apron team. The Suns won’t have the mid-level or bi-annual exception at their disposal to sign free agents. They can’t acquire a player via sign-and-trade or use previously generated trade exceptions. They can make trades, but they won’t be able to take back more salary than they send out. They also can’t aggregate player contracts (e.g. trading Nurkic and Little for a $25MM player) and they’re prohibited from offering cash to sweeten an offer.

President of basketball operations James Jones has had a nice run of success in Phoenix since being named the permanent general manager in 2019, serving as the architect of a team that snapped a 10-year playoff drought, made an NBA Finals, and has averaged roughly 50 wins per season over the last four years. But figuring out how to meaningfully upgrade the current version of the roster might be his most challenging assignment yet.

The Suns’ Offseason Plan

When Phoenix’s season came to an end in April, league observers and pundits were quick to suggest that the team’s big three of Durant, Booker, and Beal should be broken up. There’s a logical case to be made for that path. The three stars are all pretty ball-dominant and their fit together is just OK, not great. Trading one of them for two or three lesser-paid players could help balance the roster both on the cap sheet and on the court.

It’s a strategy that sounds better in theory than in practice though. Of the three, Beal is probably the one you’d want to move, but he has a no-trade clause that essentially allows him to control the process, and his value has declined since he last made an All-Star team in 2021. He’s still a talented scorer (his .513/.430/.813 shooting line last season was especially impressive) and is a solid play-maker, but he’s not a plus defender and he’s owed $161MM over the next three seasons. The Suns didn’t have to give up a huge package to acquire him and can’t expect one back if they try to send him elsewhere.

The Suns could command a more substantial haul if they were willing to trade Durant or Booker, but those guys are top-20 players in the NBA, so it’s hard to envision a deal in which one of them is traded and Phoenix is able to increase its championship odds for 2025. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that a May report indicated that the Suns plan to hang onto their big three, which Jones confirmed in a radio appearance later in the month.

If Durant, Booker, and Beal aren’t going anywhere, that leaves Nurkic, Allen, and Little as the likeliest trade chips, though we can probably rule out Allen, who won’t be trade-eligible until October after signing an extension in April and whose three-and-D skill set makes him a valuable role player for the Suns. Little’s usefulness as a trade chip, meanwhile, is limited, since his $6.75MM salary can’t be aggregated, meaning he could only bring back a player earning less than that amount. The same is true of Nurkic, though his larger cap hit ($18.125MM) means the pool of players he could be traded for is much larger.

Unfortunately for the Suns, neither Nurkic nor Little has a ton of trade value on his own. I think Nurkic might be slightly underrated in some ways (he’s a very good rebounder and passer) but he’s obviously not the sort of versatile center who will help you space the floor on offense or guard out to the perimeter on defense, so he’s not a bargain at $18MM+ per year. Little showed some promise in Portland but wasn’t good in his first season in Phoenix, averaging a career-low 3.4 points per game as his three-point percentage dipped to just 30.0%.

The Suns would have to attach a sweetener to either player to realistically land an upgrade. Cash is off limits and Phoenix has traded away most of its future draft assets. However, the club could technically still offer this year’s No. 22 pick (the trade would have to be finalized after a selection is made), as well as its 2031 first-rounder (beginning in July). Would one of those picks along with Nurkic be enough for a meaningful addition?

Gerald Bourguet of PHNX Sports explored this topic recently, suggesting 20 hypothetical trades involving Nurkic and a first-round pick, but most of them either look like long shots or don’t necessarily do a whole lot for the Suns. Of Bourguet’s ideas, the one I find most compelling for both sides might be a deal with Charlotte for a less expensive center (Nick Richards), plus another role player or two. A package of Richards, Cody Martin, and Tre Mann, for instance, would (barely) fit within Nurkic’s outgoing salary — all three players could have roles in Phoenix, but it’s not such a talented trio that the retooling Hornets should realistically expect a better return than what the Suns could offer.

Attaching both movable first-rounders to Nurkic might net a stronger return than that Hornets example, but there’s certainly a ceiling on what the Suns can expect to do on the trade market. That’s why it’s so crucial that they re-sign free agent forward Royce O’Neale. While Phoenix can’t sign an outside free agent for more than the minimum, the team will have O’Neale’s Bird rights, allowing the front office to offer him any salary up to the max.

Of course, O’Neale won’t get nearly that much, but he’ll have some leverage to get a player-friendly deal out of the Suns, who would have no means to replace him with a comparable player if he leaves. A recent report suggested Phoenix might have to offer a three- or four-year deal to ensure O’Neale doesn’t sign with a rival suitor willing to offer him a comparable (or higher) starting salary on a shorter-term contract.

Eric Gordon, Josh Okogie, Drew Eubanks, and Damion Lee will have decisions to make on minimum-salary player options, which will help determine how many back-end roster spots the Suns have to fill. Some of those players (ie. Lee) seem likelier to opt in than others (ie. Gordon), but even if all of them return, the Suns won’t have a full roster and will likely need to make multiple minimum-salary signings.

I’d expect the team to take the same approach in free agency that it did a year ago, offering second-year player options to many of its top FA targets, essentially guaranteeing them up to $5-6MM rather than just offering a single-year minimum salary. Jones and his basketball operations department will look to improve upon last year’s hit rate on minimum-salary players, as signings like Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, and Chimezie Metu didn’t really work out.

While the Suns have few tools to make significant changes to their roster without taking a step backward, no Collective Bargaining Agreement language prevented them from making a major move on the sidelines, where Frank Vogel was fired just one season into a five-year contract worth a reported $31MM.

Phoenix didn’t conduct a lengthy search for Vogel’s replacement, zeroing in quickly on Mike Budenholzer and awarding him a five-year, $50MM deal. The hope will be that even if the 2024/25 roster ends up looking pretty similar to last year’s, Budenholzer will be able to get more out of it than Vogel did.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Dead/Retained Salary

  • None

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

Note: Because he’s no longer eligible to sign a two-way contract, Lee’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,244,249). It would include a small partial guarantee. Because he’s a former first-round pick who had his third- and/or fourth-year option declined, Azubuike will be an unrestricted free agent.

Draft Picks

  • No. 22 overall pick ($3,074,640 cap hold)
  • Total (cap holds): $3,074,640

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Kevin Durant (veteran)
  • Royce O’Neale (veteran)
    • Extension-eligible until June 30.
  • Jusuf Nurkic (veteran)

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Other Cap Holds

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Suns’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Suns project to operate over the cap and over the second tax apron. That means they won’t have access to the mid-level exception, the bi-annual exception, or any of their three existing trade exceptions.

  • None
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