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Pacers Notes: Siakam, Turner, McConnell, L. Jones

June 5th, 2024 at 6:30pm CST by Arthur Hill

A new contract with free agent forward Pascal Siakam will be one of the Pacers‘ priorities this summer, writes Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star, who adds that the options to replace Siakam may be limited if they can’t re-sign him. The two-time All-Star was a valuable addition for Indiana after being acquired from Toronto in January and played a major role in the team’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals. He was the Pacers’ leading scorer at 21.7 PPG in the 41 regular season games he played, as well as their top scorer in the playoffs at 21.6 PPG.

“Pascal was a great fit,” general manager Chad Buchanan said. “Obviously, we targeted him in the trade. I’ve liked him for a long time and I thought he came in and was a tremendous piece to the puzzle for us and had major impact on the team both on the court and in the locker room. He seems to be happy here and we’re obviously happy with him and hope this is something long-term for both sides.”

If Siakam and the team are unable to out a new deal, Dopirak points to former Pacers star Paul George as a potential target. He and the Clippers haven’t been able to reach an extension agreement, with L.A. reportedly unwilling to give George the four-year contract he desires. Dopirak also names the Knicks’ OG Anunoby, the Bulls’ DeMar DeRozan, the Hornets’ Miles Bridges and the Sixers’ Tobias Harris as other free agents who could replace Siakam, but Indiana would face competition for all of them and wouldn’t necessarily have the cap room necessary to pursue some of them.

There’s more on the Pacers:

In a separate story for The Indianapolis Star, Dopirak looks at each player on the roster and examines their prospects for next season. He states that the team and center Myles Turner have both expressed interest in another extension before he becomes a free agent in 2025.
T.J. McConnell went from being out of the rotation on opening night to playing crucial minutes in the conference finals, Wheat Hotchkiss of NBA.com notes in a player review. The veteran guard’s value to the Pacers became more apparent as the season wore on, and he looks like a bargain for next season at $9.3MM in the final year of his contract. “Getting this franchise back into the playoffs and making a run to the Eastern Conference Finals when not a single person had us going there, it was really fun just to play alongside the group and in games like that,” McConnell said.
After participating in a pre-draft workout with the Pacers on Tuesday, Purdue’s Lance Jones talked about the prospect of staying in Indiana for his NBA career (video link from the Indianapolis Star). “It’s very exciting,” Jones said. “I love Indiana. They’ve accepted me with open arms, and it just feels like another home for me.”

Celtics Notes: Porzingis, Tatum, Horford, Holiday

June 5th, 2024 at 5:15pm CST by Arthur Hill

After days of speculation, Kristaps Porzingis confirmed that he’ll be ready when the NBA Finals begin Thursday night, writes Souichi Terada of MassLive. The Celtics big man, who has been out of action since April 29 with a right calf strain, updated his status during a session with reporters at Wednesday’s media day, and the team made it official by not listing anyone on its injury report.

“I will play tomorrow,” Porzingis said. “… Tomorrow will be my first real minutes in a while. I did as much as I could to prepare for this moment. But there’s nothing like game minutes and game experience that I will get tomorrow. It will be tough to jump into the Finals like this. But I did everything I could to prepare for it. And we’ll see tomorrow night.”

Because of the long layoff, the Celtics will have to monitor Porzingis’ calf and may limit his minutes throughout the series to lessen the risk of a repeat injury, Terada adds. Porzingis is confident about his ability to stay healthy after going through a long list of tests to receive medical clearance.

“I did everything,” he said. “You have to check all the boxes to even get to this point. Of course, as I said, you cannot imitate the same intensity in practice as it’s going to be tomorrow in the game. I have to feel confident to go out there and leave it all out on the floor and expect that I’m going to be healthy and be completely fine.”

There’s more from Boston:

The memories of watching the Warriors celebrate their 2022 championship at TD Garden are still fresh for the Celtics players who were on that team, per Joe Vardon of The Athletic. It’s part of the motivation to earn a banner of their own this time around. “I’m a firm believer in everything happens for a reason,” Jayson Tatum said. “There’s a lesson to be learned in every situation. I do feel a lot different this time, this go-around, two years later. I’m excited for the opportunity for us to get the job done.”
Al Horford inspires his teammates by continuing to be productive late in his career, notes Jay King of The Athletic. King points out that Horford, who turned 38 on Monday, is one of just five active players remaining from the 2007 draft. He’s the oldest big man to still be in a team’s rotation, and only six players older than him were still in the league this season. “It’s funny,” Horford said, “because I feel like everybody has been talking about me being old since I was, like, 23 years old. Because I was already thinking ahead, thinking team, thinking all these other things (about the future), and that’s just who I am.”
Jrue Holiday talked to ESPN’s Malika Andrews and Kendrick Perkins (video link) about winning over Boston fans after being acquired in a trade last fall. “When I first came, I thought that they would hate me,” Holiday said, referring to the rivalry from his time in Milwaukee. “… Once [Boston] loves you, there’s nothing like it.”

And-Ones: Media Rights, J. Porter, Voigt, Injuries, FAs

June 5th, 2024 at 4:02pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA continues to move closer to finalizing a media rights deal with ABC/ESPN, NBC, and Amazon, according to Joe Flint, Amol Sharma, and Isabella Simonetti of The Wall Street Journal (subscription required; hat tip to RealGM), who say the new agreement would be worth approximately $76 billion over 11 years. That would make it over three times more lucrative than the league’s previous deal with ABC/ESPN and TNT, which was worth $24 billion across 11 years.

As we previously detailed, the ESPN/ABC deal is being referred to as the “A” package of games and will be worth about $2.6 billion per year, while NBC will get the “B” package, worth approximately $2.5 billion annually, and Amazon’s “C” package will be worth $1.8 billion per year.

According to the Wall Street Journal’s report, TNT Sports could have retained that “B” package earlier in negotiations if it had been willing to pay $2.2 billion per year. However, Warner Bros. Discovery reportedly felt that price was too high for what it was getting, given that it would lose playoff and play-in tournament games to Amazon.

Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

A court complaint filed in New York this week alleges that former Raptors forward Jontay Porter owed “significant gambling debts” and agreed to settle them by exiting a January 26 game early, citing an injury, ensuring that the “under” prop bets on his statistical benchmarks for that contest would all hit. Jennifer Peltz of The Associated Press has many more details on the case, which has resulted in criminal charges for one conspirator so far. Federal prosecutors declined to comment on whether Porter – who was banned from the NBA for gambling violations – is under investigation.
After serving as the head coach for the Austin Spurs – San Antonio’s G League affiliate – last season, Will Voigt is joining the BYU coaching staff as an assistant under new head coach Kevin Young, as reported by Michael Scotto of HoopsHype (Twitter link). The Cougars have put out a press release confirming the hire.
Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic explores the potential cause of the uptick in injuries leading up to and during this year’s postseason, getting feedback from team executives who cited multiple possible factors, including a compressed second-half schedule (due in part to the in-season tournament) and a midseason adjustment in how fouls were being called.
Keith Smith of Spotrac ranks the top small forwards in the 2024 free agent class, starting with Paul George, DeMar DeRozan, and OG Anunoby.

2024 NBA Offseason Preview: Houston Rockets

June 5th, 2024 at 3:14pm CST by Luke Adams

After winning no more than 22 games for three consecutive seasons, the Rockets entered last summer armed with a ton of cap room and a determination to move out of their rebuilding phrase and toward legitimate contention. After hiring Ime Udoka as their new head coach, they focused on veteran free agents who could make an impact on both ends of the court, missing out on Brook Lopez but landing Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks.

The Rockets’ offseason moves were a success. VanVleet, Brooks, and Udoka were culture-setters in Houston, imposing their personalities on a team that played with a hard-nosed edge. The young core took a major step forward, as Alperen Sengun enjoying a breakout year, Jalen Green finished the season strong, Jabari Smith made significant strides in his second season, and Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore showed real promise as rookies.

While the Rockets still fell short of the postseason, they finished with a 41-41 record in a competitive Western Conference, nearly doubling their win total after posting a 22-60 mark in 2022/23.

The roster will start to get more expensive once the players on rookie contracts graduate to their second deals, but the front office has done a nice job staggering its financial commitments (VanVleet’s guaranteed money expires in 2025 at the same time Green’s and Sengun’s next deals would begin) and has an excess of future first-round picks despite not controlling its own 2024 and 2026 first-rounders. Houston’s youngsters have room to keep improving, and the team has the cap and roster flexibility to continue pursuing upgrades.

This version of the Rockets doesn’t yet have the same high ceiling that the James Harden-led teams of the late-2010s did, but there’s reason for genuine optimism in Houston again after a rough couple years following the trade that sent Harden to Brooklyn.

The Rockets’ Offseason Plan

After carrying more than $60MM in cap room into the 2023 offseason, the Rockets don’t project to be under the cap this summer. They have nearly $122MM in guaranteed money on the books, plus a $10MM cap hold for their lottery pick, leaving no meaningful room below the projected cap of $141MM even if they purge the roster of non-guaranteed salary, team options, and cap holds for free agents.

Houston does have some interesting decisions to make though, starting with whether or not to retain Jeff Green ($8MM team option), Jock Landale ($8MM non-guaranteed salary), and Jae’Sean Tate ($7.6MM team option).

It’s hard to make a convincing case that any of Green, Landale, or Tate would match or exceed their current 2024/25 salaries if they were waived and then signed new contracts. But it won’t be all that surprising if the Rockets bring back at least two – and perhaps all three – of those players for one important reason: their mid-sized cap hits and lack of guaranteed money beyond ’24/25 would make them logical trade chips in a deal for an impact player.

With no cap room available, the Rockets aren’t in position to take on a significant salary outright, and they don’t have many obviously expendable guaranteed contracts on their books. Only six Houston players are earning more than $5.5MM next season: VanVleet, Brooks, Steven Adams, Green, Smith, and Thompson.

I can’t see VanVleet and Brooks going anywhere after the positive impact they had in their first year as Rockets; Houston will want to see what it has in Adams after acquiring an injured version of him at February’s trade deadline; and while perhaps one of those younger players could be included in a package for a star, none are earning more than $12.5MM, so their salary-matching potential is limited.

In other words, the combined $23.6MM that Green, Landale, and Tate would be owed in 2024/25 could come in handy as flotsam in a trade, even if none of those players are major contributors on the court. Guaranteeing all three contracts would increase the Rockets’ team salary to about $154MM for 13 players, giving the club plenty of breathing room below the projected luxury tax line of $171MM. The club would still have enough flexibility to go shopping for one more complementary role player using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (it will be worth about $12.9MM).

The trade target most frequently connected to the Rockets has been Nets forward Mikal Bridges, who makes sense for a variety of reasons. For one, he’s the sort of two-way contributor Houston has prioritized under Udoka. Bridges’ scoring efficiency and perimeter defense took a step back this past season, but that’s likely because he was asked to be the No. 1 offensive option in Brooklyn. If he were a Rocket, he’d be leaned on more for his three-and-D prowess than his scoring, allowing him to take better shots on offense and preserve his energy for tough defensive assignments.

One crucial reason Bridges would be such a logical trade target is the fact that the Rockets control the Nets’ first-round draft picks for several years, starting with the No. 3 overall pick in 2024. Houston also owns Brooklyn’s unprotected 2026 first-rounder and has swap rights in 2025 and 2027.

Bridges’ $23.3MM cap hit would be easy to match with expiring contracts and perhaps a prospect or two, and the Rockets could offer the Nets control of their first-round picks back (along with other draft assets), putting Brooklyn in a far better position to retool. However, to date, the Nets have resisted the idea of trading Bridges, reportedly expressing a preference to build around him.

If the Rockets have no luck in their pursuit of Bridges, they could pivot to other targets with similar skill sets. Paul George and OG Anunoby would make a lot of sense on Houston’s roster, but both will be free agents and are unlikely to choose Houston over strong alternatives in Los Angeles, New York, and/or Philadelphia. Brandon Ingram is expected to be available via trade, though he’s not the kind of defensive stopper the Rockets would ideally want.

The most intriguing non-Bridges trade candidate for Houston’s purposes might be Jerami Grant. The Trail Blazers have shown little interest in moving him so far, but given how far away they are from contention, they’d be wise to listen to offers — and the Rockets could make a good one. Bruce Brown and Dorian Finney-Smith are among the lower-level trade candidates who could be fits in Houston.

The Rockets can afford to be patient if no good opportunities arise on the trade market this summer, circling back to consider their options at the 2025 trade deadline. By that time, they may get a better idea of what they have in Tari Eason, a 23-year-old wing whose career got off to a promising start before his sophomore season ended after just 22 games due to left leg surgery. It’s impossible to predict what sort of trajectory Eason’s career might follow coming off a major injury and based on such a small sample, but his three-and-D upside is real. In a best-case scenario, he develops into exactly the kind of player the Rockets are currently eyeing on the trade market.

Houston also has an opportunity to land a future impact player using the No. 3 overall pick, assuming it’s not included in a trade. As we’ve noted repeatedly, this year’s draft class is considered weak, but the Rockets don’t need to land a franchise player with that pick — turning it into another above-average rotation player would be a success. Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard would be an intriguing option for a Rockets team in need of shooting. Houston finished 23rd in the NBA last season with a 35.2% conversion rate on three-pointers, while Sheppard knocked down an incredible 52.1% in his freshman year.

Whether or not the Rockets add shooting in the draft or via trade, they’ll be in position to do so on the free agent market using the MLE. Caleb Martin, Derrick Jones, Naji Marshall, and Isaac Okoro are among the potential three-and-D free agent wings in the mid-level range to keep an eye on for Houston.

Finally, while the Rockets can wait a year on this front if they need to, it’s worth noting that Sengun and Green will both be eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason. Neither situation is clear-cut. Sengun had an awesome third year, but Houston played some of its best basketball down the stretch without him, and the team hasn’t yet gotten a chance to see how effective he can be alongside a more traditional starting center like Adams.

As for Green, he was terrific during the season’s final few weeks, but was that enough for the Rockets to feel comfortable making a massive financial commitment to him? Before closing out the year by averaging 24.5 points and 4.0 assists per game on .454/.373/.808 shooting in his final 24 games, Green had put up 17.6 PPG and 3.4 APG on .406/.308/.802 shooting in his first 58 contests.

Unless they can get him to agree to a relatively team-friendly rate well below the max, the Rockets may want to see a little more from Green in terms of scoring efficiency and defense. Both he and Sengun would be restricted free agents in 2025 if they don’t sign extensions this offseason.

Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

Fred VanVleet ($42,846,615)
Dillon Brooks ($22,255,493)
Steven Adams ($12,600,000)
Jalen Green ($12,483,048)
Jabari Smith ($9,770,880)
Amen Thompson ($9,249,960)
Alperen Sengun ($5,424,654)
Tari Eason ($3,695,160)
Cam Whitmore ($3,379,080)
Total: $121,704,890

Non-Guaranteed Salary

Jock Landale ($8,000,000)
- Landale’s salary will become guaranteed if he remains under contract through June 29.
Total: $8,000,000

Dead/Retained Salary

None

Player Options

None

Team Options

Jeff Green ($8,000,000): Non-Bird rights
- Green’s salary would remain non-guaranteed until July 11 if his option is exercised.
Jae’Sean Tate ($7,565,217): Bird rights
- Tate’s cap hit includes a $7,065,217 base salary and $500,000 in likely incentives.
Total: $15,565,217

Restricted Free Agents

None

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

No. 3 overall pick ($10,128,480 cap hold)
No. 44 overall pick (no cap hold)
Total (cap holds): $10,128,480

Extension-Eligible Players

Steven Adams (veteran)
- Extension-eligible as of October 1.
Jalen Green (rookie scale)
Alperen Sengun (rookie scale)
Jae’Sean Tate (veteran)
- Team option must be exercised.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

Reggie Bullock ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Aaron Holiday ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
Boban Marjanovic ($2,093,637 cap hold): Bird rights
Total (cap holds): $6,280,911

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Rockets project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000
Bi-annual exception: $4,681,000
Trade exception: $4,510,000
- Expires on October 17.

Hoops Rumors Glossary: July Moratorium

June 5th, 2024 at 2:01pm CST by Luke Adams

NBA free agents come off the board in rapid succession as soon as the league-wide negotiating period opens on June 30 at 6:00 pm Eastern time. However, most of those deals can’t become official right away, due to what’s known in the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement as the “moratorium period.” We know it colloquially as the July moratorium.

The July moratorium – which lasts from 12:01 am Eastern time on July 1 until 12:00 pm on July 6 – essentially puts a freeze on most transactions for several days at the start of the new league year. NBA free agents are allowed to negotiate with clubs during the moratorium, and they can agree to terms on new contracts, but they are unable to officially sign new deals until the moratorium ends. The same goes for trades — two teams can agree to terms on a deal, but can’t formally put it through until at least July 6.

While nearly every agreement reached during the July moratorium eventually gets finalized, the unofficial nature of those initial deals can occasionally wreak havoc on the league’s free agent market.

DeAndre Jordan‘s 2015 free agency isn’t the only example of this, but it’s certainly the most memorable one from the last decade. Jordan initially agreed to terms with the Mavericks during the July moratorium, but before the moratorium ended and the two sides could make it official, the Clippers changed Jordan’s mind and convinced him to re-sign with L.A.

Because Jordan and the Mavs had only reached an informal verbal agreement, there was nothing Dallas could do to stop him from reversing course during the moratorium. Still, this sort of about-face is rare, as it can result in fractured relationships between players, agents, and teams.

While most NBA transactions can’t be completed during the moratorium, there are several exceptions to that rule. The following moves are permitted between July 1 and July 6:

A team can sign a first-round draft pick to his rookie scale contract.
A team can sign a second-round draft pick using the second-round pick exception.
A team can sign a player to a one- or two-year minimum-salary contract.
A restricted free agent can sign a qualifying offer from his current team.
A restricted free agent can sign a five-year, fully guaranteed maximum-salary contract with his current team.
A restricted free agent can sign an offer sheet with a new team; the one-day matching period would begin once the moratorium ends.
A team can sign a player to a two-way contract, convert a two-way contract into a standard NBA deal, or convert an Exhibit 10 deal into a two-way contract.
A team can waive a player or claim a player off waivers.
A team can exercise its third- or fourth-year team option on a rookie scale contract.
A second-round pick can accept a required tender (a one-year contract offer) from his team.

Under older Collective Bargaining Agreements, the NBA finalized the salary cap at some point during the July moratorium, and the new cap would take effect once the moratorium ended. However, the current CBA calls for the salary cap for the new league year to be set before the start of July, with the new figure going into effect immediately on July 1. This gives teams more clarity on exactly how much room they have available as they negotiate with free agents during the moratorium.

Several years ago, the NBA moved the start of its free agency negotiating period forward by six hours, opening that window at 6:00 pm ET on June 30 instead of at 12:01 am ET on July 1. Although the July moratorium doesn’t technically begin until July 1, free agents who reach agreements quickly can’t officially sign on June 30, since their old contracts haven’t technically expired yet. That rule will also apply this year to free agents who reach agreements with their own teams during the exclusive negotiating period between the end of the NBA Finals and June 30.

However, if an extension-eligible veteran agrees to a new deal with his current team, he can officially complete that extension during that six-hour period on June 30, before the moratorium goes into effect — Thaddeus Young (Raptors) and Gary Harris (Magic) took this route in 2022, formally finalizing their new contracts as extensions on the evening of June 30 before the moratorium period began.

Finally, it’s worth noting that while we refer to this period at the start of free agency as the “July” moratorium, it doesn’t always take place in July. For instance, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the moratorium period instead occurred in November in 2020 and in August in 2021.

Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post. Earlier versions of this post were published in previous years.

International Notes: Slovenia, Doncic, Croatia, South Sudan, Siulepa

June 5th, 2024 at 12:39pm CST by Luke Adams

The Slovenian national team has officially announced the 16 players who will make up its preliminary roster for the Olympic qualifying tournament in Greece next month (Twitter link). While the 16-man group features currently Nuggets forward Vlatko Cancar and a couple other players with prior NBA experience (Zoran Dragic and Mike Tobey), the headliner is Mavericks guard Luka Doncic.

Slovenia obviously hopes that Doncic will be available to help the team try to claim one of the final four Olympic berths this summer, and the Mavs star said on Wednesday that he wants to do so, despite battling knee issues this spring, as Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press tweets. Doncic still has one more series to get through, so his availability in Greece will presumably hinge on how he’s feeling at the conclusion of the NBA Finals.

Here’s more from around the international basketball world:

Croatia, which will be in Slovenia’s group at the qualifying tournament in Greece, has also announced a preliminary roster for that event. Warriors forward Dario Saric and Clippers center Ivica Zubac are among the 17 players who are candidates to make up the 12-man roster, while former NBA wing Mario Hezonja is one of the other notable names in that group.
South Sudan, which has already qualified for the Olympics based on its results at last year’s World Cup, revealed a 25-man preliminary roster for Paris (Twitter link). Some of the biggest names in the mix for roster spots include Bol Bol, Wenyen Gabriel, Thon Maker, JT Thor, and World Cup star Carlik Jones.
Seventeen-year-old Australian prospect Roman Siulepa is signing with the Tasmania JackJumpers as part of the National Basketball League’s Next Stars program, he tells Jonathan Givony of ESPN. Givony identifies Siulepa as one of the most promising international prospects in his age group, noting that the 6’7″ small forward has averaged 21.0 points and 10.7 rebounds per game in the second division of Australia’s NBL this season.

Projected Lottery Pick Nikola Topic Has Partially Torn ACL

June 5th, 2024 at 11:18am CST by Luke Adams

Nikola Topic, long considered a probable lottery pick in the 2024 draft, has been diagnosed with a partially torn ACL, agent Misko Raznatovic confirmed to Jonathan Givony of ESPN.

Topic is among the prospects currently in attendance at the NBA’s international draft combine in Treviso, Italy for players who couldn’t make it to last month’s combine in Chicago. This week’s international combine features a medical examination – including imaging – for all participants, which confirmed the diagnosis for the 6’7″ guard.

As an early entrant in this year’s draft class, Topic has until June 16 to decide whether or not he wants to keep his name in the pool. The plan, Givony writes, is for the Serbian point guard to travel in the coming days to the United States, where he’ll be evaluated by NBA team doctors and work out a treatment plan, including possible surgery.

For what it’s worth, Raznatovic told Givony that he doesn’t think the injury will have a significant impact on Topic’s draft stock due to his age (19 in August) and the early feedback from U.S. doctors who have looked at his MRIs. Those doctors have said the stability of the knee is “in excellent shape,” per Raznatovic.

While it’s hard to imagine an NBA franchise being quite as enthusiastic about using a lottery pick on a player with an injury that could cause him to miss some or all of his rookie season, Topic’s recovery timeline could be accelerated if doctors determine that reconstructive surgery isn’t necessary.

Teams drafting in the top 15 will be assured of receiving Topic’s medical information, Givony notes, due to a rule change in the new CBA. It would be up to Topic’s representatives to decide whether to share his medicals with teams outside of the top 15.

As Givony writes, Topic initially sustained a left knee injury in January while playing for Crvena Zvezda in Serbia. He returned to action in late April, but played just three Adriatic League games before hurting the knee again. The No. 9 player on ESPN’s 2024 big board, Topic was excellent when healthy in 2023/24, averaging 18.6 points and 6.9 assists per game for Mega Basket and Crvena Zvezda, per Givony.

Poll: Who Will Win 2024 NBA Finals?

June 5th, 2024 at 10:15am CST by Luke Adams

Based on what we’ve seen to this point in the 2023/24 NBA season, we have little reason to view the Celtics as anything but strong favorites entering the NBA Finals. Betting website BetOnline.ag agrees, listing them at -220 to win the series.

Boston finished the regular season with a 64-18 record, seven games ahead of any other team in the NBA, 14 games ahead of any other Eastern Conference team, and 14 games ahead of the Mavericks.

Only 21 teams in NBA history have won more games in a single regular season than the Celtics did this year, and 15 of those clubs won championships.

Only two teams in league history have had a higher regular season net rating (+11.7) than the Celtics did in 2023/24, and both of those teams (the 1996 and 1997 Bulls) won titles.

None of this year’s playoff teams has a better postseason record (12-2) or net rating (+10.8) than the Celtics. By comparison, the Mavericks are at 12-5 and +4.1.

So what’s the case against the Celtics? Well, there are a few factors to consider with Game 1 set to tip off on Thursday.

For one, will the Celtics have a healthy Kristaps Porzingis? The big man intends to suit up on Thursday, barring a setback, but he admitted to reporters on Tuesday that he’s not sure whether he’s 100% after being sidelined for approximately five weeks due to a calf strain that forced him to miss two full rounds of the playoffs.

If Porzingis is unavailable or unable to perform at his usual level, it would reduce the Celtics’ offensive options and limit their ability to protect the rim on defense. The Mavericks have thrived this postseason in part by letting centers Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively hang out near the basket to defend the paint, allowing rival big men to let it fly from beyond the arc. That would be a more difficult strategy to deploy vs. Boston if Porzingis (who made 37.5% of 5.1 threes per game this season) is back in form.

The more difficult path the Mavericks traveled to reach the NBA Finals may be another point in their favor. None of the teams the Celtics defeated en route to the Finals had a top-10 record or a top-nine net rating during the regular season, and all three were missing their best players for part or all of the series vs. Boston (Jimmy Butler for Miami, Donovan Mitchell for Cleveland, and Tyrese Haliburton for Indiana).

Dallas, on the other hand, ran through three of the Western Conference’s top four seeds, knocking off a Clippers team that ranked seventh in net rating during the regular season before going on to upset the Thunder (No. 2 in net rating) and Timberwolves (No. 3). The Mavs weren’t supposed to make it this far, which means they’re essentially playing with house money at this point, whereas the Celtics – following a series of playoff letdowns in recent years – are in championship-or-bust mode and may be feeling more pressure.

Finally, while the Celtics had the strongest, most well-rounded starting lineup of any NBA team this season, the Mavericks showed in the Western Conference finals vs. Minnesota that if their stars – Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving – are the best players on the court, they can get enough from their role players to beat a team with a more talented supporting cast. Boston will have plenty of talented defenders to throw at Doncic and Irving, including Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, but if the Mavs’ star guards can outplay Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, they’ll have a chance.

We want to know what you think. Are there enough compelling reasons to believe the Mavericks can pull off the upset and become the NBA’s 2024 champions, or will Boston cap off a dominant season by winning its record-setting 18th title?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!

Pacific Notes: LeBron, Irving, O’Neale, Ballmer

June 5th, 2024 at 9:13am CST by Luke Adams

Discussing his former teammate Kyrie Irving on his Mind The Game podcast (YouTube clip), Lakers star LeBron James said he has gotten satisfaction out of watching Irving’s success in Dallas, but admitted that he’s disappointed to no longer be playing with the star guard.

“I’m so f—ing happy and so proud to watch him continue his growth,” James said. “I’m so f—ing mad at the same time that I’m not his running mate anymore.”

As Dave McMenamin of ESPN details, Irving requested a trade out of Cleveland in 2017, in large part due to his desire to get out from under James’ shadow and to have his own team, but the mutual appreciation between the two stars seems to have grown since their days together as Cavaliers.

LeBron was known to be pushing for the Lakers to acquire Irving during multiple transaction cycles before the guard was ultimately sent to Dallas at the 2023 trade deadline. However, with Irving thriving in Dallas and under contract for up to two more seasons, it seems unlikely at this point that he and James will reunite prior to LeBron’s retirement.

James added that he doesn’t view the Mavericks as a significant underdog vs. Boston in the NBA Finals because he views Irving as a potential difference-maker.

“To have a guy like Kyrie Irving as the ultimate wild card,” James said. “It’s like having a Draw 4 in your hand every time someone deals you cards in Uno.”

Here’s more from around the Pacific:

Responding to an ESPN report that said the Suns are expected to retain free agent forward Royce O’Neale, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 confirmed on The Burns & Gambo show (podcast link) that a new deal between the two sides is likely, but suggested that Phoenix will probably have to offer a longer-term contract to make sure it gets done. “What they’re going to have to three or four years to keep him. Other teams will probably offer him more money on a shorter-term deal,” Gambadoro said. “… What I’m expecting and what I’ve heard is that the Suns will likely go three to four years on an offer to keep Royce O’Neale.”
With the TV series ‘Clipped’ debuting this week, Law Murray of The Athletic takes a look back at how Steve Ballmer reset the Clippers‘ culture after buying the team in 2014 following the Donald Sterling scandal. “It was positive in a way,” former Clippers center DeAndre Jordan said of the Sterling situation. “Because we did end up getting one of the greatest sports owners, in my opinion, in Steve. The things that he’s done have been amazing, and I can’t wait to see what he continues to do, especially starting next year (when the Clippers move into their new arena).”
In case you missed it, the Lakers are said to be “zeroing in” on J.J. Redick as their next head coach. Get the full story here.

Central Notes: Eversley, Bulls, Pacers, Pistons

June 5th, 2024 at 7:58am CST by Luke Adams

Bulls general manager Marc Eversley, who reportedly received consideration from Detroit and Charlotte when those teams sought new heads of basketball operations earlier this year, recently signed a new three-year contract with Chicago that will begin in July, a source with knowledge of the situation tells Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic.

Eversley, who was hired by the Bulls in 2020, has served since then as the front office’s No. 2 executive under head of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas.

The Athletic’s report on Eversley’s contract situation comes within a larger look at some key questions facing the Bulls this offseason, as Mayberry considers what the future holds for DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball, among others. Mayberry speculates that if the Bulls want to do a short-term deal for DeRozan, they may have to offer upwards of $40MM annually; he also suggests that team officials seem less optimistic than Ball about his ability to be ready to go on opening night in 2024/25.

Here’s more from around the Central:

This year’s Pacers have been likened by some to the 2021 Hawks, who unexpectedly made the Eastern Conference finals but haven’t won a playoff series since then, writes Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star. However, Tyrese Haliburton believes the 2010-14 Pacers (who won five total playoff series and made the Eastern Conference finals twice) are a better reference point for Indiana’s current team, adding that he and his teammates will be fueled by the skepticism about their staying power. “We’re a group of guys that are really motivated by negativity, motivated by being doubted,” Haliburton said. “That’s how a lot of us guys are motivated. I’m really excited to go into this next year with, ‘The Pacers made the Eastern Conference finals. Can they do it again? They probably can’t. They’re this, they’re that.’ That’s exciting for our group.”
Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press (subscription required) poses five crucial questions for new Pistons president Trajan Langdon to consider, including whether the Cade Cunningham/Jaden Ivey backcourt duo can work long-term, whether Jalen Duren is a franchise center, and whether this offseason is the right time to take a big swing.
James L. Edwards III of The Athletic takes a look at Langdon’s draft history as the Pelicans’ general manager to get a sense of what sort of player the Pistons might target at No. 5. In Edwards’ view, a “long, rangy” wing could be Detroit’s preference, with Matas Buzelis among the prospects who could be a fit in at No. 5.

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