Hoops Rumors

The 2023/24 NBA regular season is officially over, but the draft order for this June has not yet been set.

A handful of factors, including the play-in results, random tiebreakers, and – of course – the lottery results themselves will ultimately determine what the 58(*) picks in the 2024 NBA draft look like. But with the season in the books, there’s plenty we do know.

(* Note: The Sixers‘ second-round pick and the Nuggets’ second-round pick, which was acquired by the Suns, are forfeited due to free agency gun-jumping violations.)

Let’s dive in and check in on a few key aspects of the lottery standings and projected draft order…

Tentative lottery standings/odds

So far, only 10 of the 14 teams involved in the draft lottery are known — the four teams eliminated in the play-in tournament will join them.

With the help of data from Tankathon, here’s a tentative breakdown at what the lottery odds would look like if the play-in favorites (the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds) advance through the tournament and secure playoff spots. Odds are rounded to one decimal place.

(* Asterisks denote traded picks)

Two pairs of teams here finished with matching records: the Hornets and Trail Blazers and the Kings and Warriors. Random tiebreakers will be completed to determine their exact lottery positioning, so their lottery odds, in italics, are just tentative so far. If the Trail Blazers were to win their tiebreaker with the Hornets, for example, the two teams would be flipped in the chart above.

Depending on which play-in teams make the playoffs, these lottery odds could fluctuate and different tiebreakers may be necessary. For example, the Hawks and Bulls both had worse regular season records than the Rockets, but if one of those teams advances to the playoffs and the Sixers or Heat end up in the lottery, Houston would move up a spot in the lottery standings and Philadelphia or Miami would check in at – or near – the bottom of the lottery.

The Heat finished with the same 46-36 record as the Kings and Warriors, so if all three teams end up in the lottery, a three-team tiebreaker would be necessary. On the other hand, if, say, Miami and Golden State both make the playoffs and Sacramento misses out, only the Kings would be a lottery team, so no tiebreaker would be required for lottery purposes.

The different colors in the chart above reflect that those teams could lose their picks. The Nets‘ first-round pick will be sent to the Rockets unconditionally, but the other four traded lottery picks include some form of protection.

The Spurs will receive the Raptors‘ pick if it lands outside the top six (54.2%), whereas Toronto would keep it if it stays in the top six (45.8%).

The Jazz‘s pick features top-10 protection, so there’s a 99.6% chance they’ll hang onto it and only a 0.4% chance that the Thunder will get it.

The Rockets‘ pick is top-four protected, so they have a 7.2% chance to keep it with some lottery luck, but there’s a 92.8% chance it will go the Thunder. Those odds would be adjusted to 9.6% and 90.4%, respectively, if either Atlanta or Chicago makes the playoffs.

The Warriors‘ pick is also top-four protected, so if Golden State misses the playoffs, then moves into the top four, they’ll keep it — these odds could range from 2.4% to 4.7%, depending on whether a tiebreaker is needed and the results of that tiebreaker. Otherwise, the Trail Blazers will receive it (95.3% or 97.6%). Portland would also be assured of receiving the pick if the Warriors make the playoffs.

The play-in factor

The teams eliminated in this week’s play-in tournament will end up in the lottery, sorted by record (worst to best), while the teams that earn playoff spots won’t pick earlier than No. 15. Here are the eight play-in teams:

• Atlanta Hawks (36-46)
• Chicago Bulls (39-43)
• Golden State Warriors (46-36)
• Sacramento Kings (46-36)
• Miami Heat (46-36)
• Los Angeles Lakers (47-35)
• Philadelphia 76ers (47-35)
• New Orleans Pelicans (49-33)

Based on their 49-33 record, the Pelicans could end up with a pick as low as No. 23 in the first round of the draft (depending on tiebreaker results). However, if they lose two play-in games this week and don’t make the playoffs at all, they’d hold the No. 14 spot in the lottery instead.

The Warriors, Kings, and Heat finished with matching 46-36 records, while the Lakers and Sixers were each 47-35, so if multiple teams in any of those pairs are eliminated in the play-in tournament, a tiebreaker will be required to determine their spots in the lottery standings.

On the other hand, if – for example – Philadelphia makes the playoffs and the Lakers don’t, no tiebreaker would be necessary for those two teams, since L.A. would be in the lottery and the Sixers wouldn’t.

The tiebreakers

Many tiebreakers will be required to determine either lottery positioning or a team’s specific draft pick. Here are all the teams that finished with identical records, creating a situation where a random tiebreaker will (or may) be required:

3. Charlotte Hornets / Portland Trail Blazers (21-61)
12. Golden State Warriors / Miami Heat / Sacramento Kings (46-36)
    • Note: A three-way tiebreaker would only be required if all three teams miss the playoffs. All three teams cannot make the playoffs. However, there are multiple scenarios in which this tiebreaker could involve just two teams and could be for a different pick.
    • Note: The Warriors’ pick will be sent to the Trail Blazers if it lands outside the top four.
    • Note: The Kings’ pick will be sent to the Hawks if it lands outside the top 14.
16. Indiana Pacers / Los Angeles Lakers / Orlando Magic / Philadelphia 76ers (47-35)
    • Note: The Lakers and/or Sixers would not be involved in this tiebreaker if they don’t make the playoffs.
      
    • Note: The Pacers’ pick will be sent to the Raptors.
      
    • Note: The Lakers’ pick may be sent to the Pelicans (New Orleans has the option to defer it to 2025).
21. Milwaukee Bucks / New Orleans Pelicans / Phoenix Suns (49-33)
    • Note: The Pelicans would not be involved in this tiebreaker if they don’t make the playoffs.
    • Note: The Pelicans have the ability to swap first-round picks with the Bucks.
      
24. Dallas Mavericks / New York Knicks (50-32)
    • Note: The Mavericks’ pick will be sent to the Knicks.
28. Denver Nuggets / Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
    • Note: The Thunder’s pick will be sent to the Jazz.

The playoff teams that win the tiebreakers will get the higher pick in the first round and the lower pick in the second round. For instance, let’s say the Pelicans make the playoffs and then win their three-way tiebreaker and assume the Suns are the runner-up in that tiebreaker, the first-round order would be New Orleans at No. 21, Phoenix at No. 22, and the Bucks at No. 23; the second-round order would be Milwaukee at No. 50, Phoenix at No. 51, and New Orleans at No. 52.

However, the second-round order for tied lottery teams isn’t determined until lottery night. For example, if Charlotte wins its tiebreaker with Portland, but the Trail Blazers win the No. 1 pick in the lottery, the Hornets would receive the higher second-round pick, since they’d have the lower first-round pick despite winning the tiebreaker.

These tiebreakers will be conducted sometime after the playoff field is set. In each of the past two years, they’ve been completed on the Monday eight days after the regular season ended.

The traded first-round picks

Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for the 2024 NBA draft:

Picks that will change hands:

• Rockets acquiring Nets‘ pick.
  • This pick has about a 50/50 chance of landing at No. 9. It could also move into the top four or slip into the 10-13 range, depending on the draft lottery results.
• Raptors acquiring Pacers‘ pick.
  • This pick will land anywhere from No. 16 to 20, depending on play-in and tiebreaker results.
• Knicks acquiring Mavericks‘ pick.
  • This pick will be either No. 24 or 25, depending on tiebreaker results.
• Wizards acquiring Clippers‘ pick.
  • This pick will be No. 26.
• Jazz acquiring Thunder‘s pick.
  • This pick will be either No. 28 or 29, depending on tiebreaker results.

Picks that won’t change hands:

• Knicks acquiring Pistons‘ pick (top-18 protected).
  • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 5, so it will fall in its protected range. The Pistons will instead owe the Knicks their 2025 first-round pick (top-13 protected).
• Knicks acquiring Wizards‘ pick (top-12 protected).
  • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 6, so it will fall in its protected range. The Wizards will instead owe the Knicks their 2025 first-round pick (top-10 protected).
• Spurs acquiring Hornets‘ pick (top-14 protected).
  • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 8, so it will fall in its protected range. The Hornets will instead owe the Spurs their 2025 first-round pick (top-14 protected).
• Bulls acquiring Trail Blazers‘ pick (top-14 protected).
  • This pick can’t end up lower than No. 8, so it will fall in its protected range. The Trail Blazers will instead owe the Bulls their 2025 first-round pick (top-14 protected).
• Wizards or Grizzlies exercising swap rights with Suns.
  • The Wizards had the right to swap first-round picks with the Suns, and the Grizzlies subsequently had the right to swap their own first-round pick for whichever pick the Suns held. However, the Suns’ pick will land in the 21-23 range, while the Wizards and Grizzlies have lottery picks, so neither team will take advantage of its swap rights.

Picks that might change hands:

• Spurs acquiring Raptors‘ pick (top-six protected).
  • There’s a 45.8% chance that this pick will land in the top six, in which case it would be kept by the Raptors. There’s a 54.2% chance it will land in the 7-10 range, in which case the Spurs would receive it.
• Thunder acquiring Jazz‘s pick (top-10 protected).
  • There’s a 99.6% chance that this pick will land in the top 10, it which case it would be kept by the Jazz. There’s a 0.4% chance it will land at either No. 11 or 12, in which case the Thunder would receive it.
• Thunder acquiring Rockets‘ pick (top-four protected).
  • There’s a 7.2% chance that this pick will land in the top four, in which case it would be kept by the Rockets. There’s a 92.8% chance it will land in the 12-14 range, in which case the Thunder would receive it.
  • Note: If either Atlanta or Chicago makes the playoffs, there would be a 9.6% chance that this pick lands in the top four and a 90.4% chance it ends up in the 11-14 range.
• Trail Blazers acquiring Warriors‘ pick (top-four protected).
  • If the Warriors make the playoffs, the Trail Blazers will be assured of this pick. If Golden State misses the playoffs, the exact odds will be determined by play-in and tiebreak results. The odds of the pick moving into the top four, in which case the Warriors would keep it, would range from 2.4% to 4.7%. The odds of it ending up in the 12-14 range and being sent to the Trail Blazers would range from 95.3% or 97.6%.
• Hawks acquiring Kings‘ pick (top-14 protected).
  • The Hawks will receive this pick if the Kings make the playoffs. If the Kings lose in the play-in tournament, they’ll instead owe the Hawks their 2025 first-round pick (top-12 protected).
• Pelicans acquiring Lakers‘ pick (option to defer to 2025).
  • The Lakers’ pick could technically land as high as No. 1 (if they miss the playoffs and win the lottery) or as low as No. 20 (in certain play-in/tiebreak scenarios). The Pelicans will have the option to acquire this year’s pick or acquire the Lakers’ 2025 pick instead.
• Pelicans exercising swap rights with Bucks.
  • If the Pelicans make the playoffs, their own pick and the Bucks’ pick will land in the 21-23 range. If Milwaukee’s pick is the higher of the two, New Orleans will exercise its right to swap picks.