2024/25 NBA Over/Unders: Pacific Division

With the 2024/25 NBA regular season set to tip off next month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2023/24, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’24/25?

We’ll wrap up our series today with the Pacific Division…


Phoenix Suns


Sacramento Kings


Golden State Warriors


Los Angeles Lakers


Los Angeles Clippers


Previous voting results:

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
  • Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
  • Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

Southeast

  • Orlando Magic (47.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
  • Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): Under (66.4%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Under (56.6%)

Northwest

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 wins): Over (68.1%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (52.5 wins): Over (65.2%)
  • Denver Nuggets (51.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
  • Utah Jazz (29.5 wins): Under (60.1%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (22.5 wins): Under (54.7%)

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (50.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (48.5 wins): Under (51.6%)
  • Indiana Pacers (47.5 wins): Over (57.2%)
  • Chicago Bulls (28.5 wins): Under (61.9%)
  • Detroit Pistons (24.5 wins): Over (60.2%)

Heat Notes: Robinson, Jaquez, Butler

Duncan Robinson missed nine games late in the regular season due to a back injury, then was limited during last season’s playoffs. Robinson says he’s fully recovered from that ailment as Heat training camp approaches, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports.

“I feel great,” Robinson said. “We took all the necessary steps, seeing who we needed to see. Not restricted in any way. Have [not been limited] for the better part of eight weeks. Playing pickup. No limitations. It’s still a focus and emphasis in terms of what I’m doing in the weight room. [But it] hasn’t given me any issues. It was a rude awakening turning 30 [this past April] and having back issues within a month. Father Time is undefeated.”

Robinson has two years remaining on his five-year, $90MM contract.

We have more on the Heat:

  • After losing Caleb Martin in free agency, the Heat need to fill that void by finding a new defensive stopper. Jaime Jaquez Jr. says he can assume that role, according to Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. “I think obviously with losing Caleb this year, I think there’s definitely going to be a hole to be filled when it comes to the defensive side of the ball and a guy that can really go out there and stop the other team’s best player or whoever’s got it going that night,” Jaquez said. “I think my role can definitely evolve into somebody who Coach just decides, ‘Hey, Jaime I want you to go guard the best player and chase him and stop him.’ I think that’s the way my role can evolve.”
  • Addressing a report that the Warriors are monitoring Jimmy Butler, Winderman says he anticipates Butler’s future will continue to be a hot topic unless the Heat get off to a solid start or the forward signs an extension. However, Winderman also notes that under the CBA and its prohibitive tax aprons, blockbuster deals are more complicated and more difficult than ever.
  • In case you missed it, free agent forward Nassir Little is reportedly working out for the Heat. Get the details here.

And-Ones: Fitts, Gilyard, NBA Schedule, Flagg, Swarm Staff

In an NBA G League swap, the Memphis Hustle acquired a 2025 first-round pick and the returning player rights to forward Malik Fitts from the Cleveland Charge, the Grizzlies’ G League team tweets.  The Charge, the Cavaliers’ affiliate, received the returning player rights to guard Jacob Gilyard.

Fitts has appeared in 18 NBA games, most recently in eight contests with Boston during the 2021/22 campaign when he was signed to two 10-day contracts. Gilyard appeared in a combined 41 NBA games with the Grizzlies and Nets last season. He was on a two-way deal with Brooklyn after Memphis waived him.

We have more from around the basketball world:

  • It’s impossible to keep all the NBA teams happy and give them their desired dates on an 82-game schedule. Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic spoke to an unnamed source who detailed the issues confronting the schedule makers. “You’ve got 30 different teams each with their own perspective on what they would like to see and within each of the 30 teams, you’ve got multiple perspectives from what makes the most sense,” the source said. “The league is then responsible for taking all of the different perspectives and try to make something that’s going to please everyone, which inherently is an impossible task.”
  • How would projected 2025 top pick Cooper Flagg impact a team in rebuild mode? Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report dives into that topic, exploring how the Duke freshman big man would fit in with the Nets, Hornets, Pistons, Trail Blazers, Spurs, Raptors, Jazz and Wizards.
  • Nathan Peavy, David Noel III and Alex Ruoff have been announced as assistant coaches on DJ Bakker‘s staff with the Greensboro Swarm, the Hornets‘ affiliate, the G League team announced in a press release. Peavy joins the Swarm after serving last season as the head coach of the Cangrejeros de Santurce in the Baloncesto Superior Nacional league, Puerto Rico’s top professional division. Noel spent the last two seasons as an assistant coach for the Motor City Cruise, the Pistons’ affiliate. Ruoff was on West Virginia’s coaching staff the last two seasons.

Nassir Little Auditioning For Celtics, Warriors, Heat

Several teams have worked out or plan to work out free agent forward Nassir Little, Spotrac contributor Keith Smith tweets.

That group includes the defending champion Celtics, Warriors and Heat. The Athletic reported earlier in the day that Little is also among a trio of forwards who is working out for the Kings.

Little would seemingly have a greater chance of hooking on with the Kings and Warriors than the other two squads. As our roster counts display, Sacramento has 14 players signed to the official roster (not counting two-way deals) but only 12 have fully guaranteed contracts. Golden State has 15 players on the official roster but just 12 have fully guaranteed deals.

Boston and Miami have 14 players apiece on fully guaranteed deals, plus others on training camp or non-guaranteed contracts. Both also have major luxury tax considerations — the Celtics are operating well above the second tax apron, while the Heat would surpass that second apron threshold by carrying a 15th man.

Little, 24, has been a free agent since Phoenix waived him late last month. The combo forward appeared in 45 games for the Suns last season, making two starts and posting 3.4 points and 1.7 rebounds in 10.2 minutes per night. He spent his first four NBA seasons in Portland before coming to Phoenix in a three-team trade last September.

Kings Officially Sign Rookie Guard Boogie Ellis

The Kings have officially signed Boogie Ellis, according to a press release from the team.

Sacramento’s intention to sign the former USC guard was first reported in late July. Terms of the contract have not been reported or announced, but it’s most likely an Exhibit 10 deal.

Ellis played for Sacramento’s Summer League team after going undrafted. He averaged 11.2 PPG in five games in July while shooting 51.3% from the field and 54.5% from 3-point range.

Ellis began his college career at Memphis in 2019 before transferring to USC two years later. He earned second-team All-Pac 12 honors last season while averaging 16.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists in 29 games with the Trojans. In his three seasons at USC, Ellis averaged 15.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.2 steals in 95 career games.

An Exhibit 10 contract would allow Ellis to receive a bonus worth up to $77.5K (on top of his standard G League salary) if he’s waived by Sacramento and then spends at least 60 days with the Stockton Kings. He would also be eligible to have the contract converted into a two-way deal before the season, but the Kings don’t currently have an open two-way slot.

NBA 2024 Offseason Check-In: Portland Trail Blazers

Hoops Rumors is checking in on the 2024 offseason for all 30 NBA teams, recapping the summer’s free agent signings, trades, draft picks, departures, and more. We’ll take a look at each team’s offseason moves and consider what might still be coming before the regular season begins. Today, we’re focusing on the Portland Trail Blazers.


Free agent signings

  • Devonte’ Graham: One year, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed. Signed using minimum salary exception.
  • Henri Drell: One year, minimum salary. Non-guaranteed (Exhibit 10). Signed using minimum salary exception.

Trades

  • Acquired the Timberwolves’ 2027 second-round pick; either the Pacers’ or Wizards’ 2029 second-round pick (whichever is least favorable); and the Knicks’ 2030 second-round pick from the Knicks in exchange for the draft rights to Tyler Kolek (No. 34 pick).
  • Acquired the draft rights to Quinten Post (No. 52 pick) and cash from the Thunder in exchange for the draft rights to Oso Ighodaro (No. 40 pick).
  • Acquired cash from the Warriors in exchange for the draft rights to Quinten Post (No. 52 pick).
  • Acquired Deni Avdija in exchange for Malcolm Brogdon; the draft rights to Carlton Carrington (No. 14 pick); either the Trail Blazers’, Celtics’, or Bucks’ 2029 first-round pick (whichever is second-most favorable); the Warriors’ 2028 second-round pick; and the Trail Blazers’ 2030 second-round pick.

Draft picks

  • 1-7: Donovan Clingan
    • Signed to rookie scale contract (four years, $31,085,018).

Two-way signings

Departed/unsigned free agents

Other moves

Salary cap situation

  • Operating over the cap ($140.6MM) and below the luxury tax line ($170.8MM).
  • Carrying approximately $167.1MM in salary.
  • No hard cap.
  • Full mid-level, bi-annual exceptions available.
  • Three traded player exceptions available (largest worth $8,778,377).
    • Note: The $8,778,377 exception expires on 9/27. The second-largest TPE is worth $6,875,000.

The offseason so far

After finishing the 2023/24 season with a 21-61 record, worst in the Western Conference, the Trail Blazers entered the offseason projecting to be a taxpayer in ’24/25, which wasn’t exactly ideal for a team still far away from contention.

As a result, Portland had two primary goals this summer: First, continue adding young talent to its core. And second, shed enough salary to get under the tax line and avoid paying a premium for a roster almost certain to finish in lottery territory again.

Armed with the Nos. 7, 14, 34, and 40 picks in the 2024 draft, the Trail Blazers were well positioned to add more prospects to their roster, but opted against keeping all of those draft assets, recognizing they could use one of those lottery picks to help address both of their offseason goals. Rather than hanging onto the No. 14 pick, Portland packaged it with Malcolm Brogdon, a future first-rounder, and a pair of second-round picks to acquire Deni Avdija from the Wizards.

While it may look like a significant price to pay for Avdija, Brogdon didn’t have a long-term place in a crowded Portland backcourt, this year’s draft class was considered weak, and the future first-round pick the Blazers surrendered is just a second-most favorable pick in 2029, meaning they’ll still hold a more favorable first-rounder in the spring of ’29.

Plus, even though Avdija is a four-year veteran, he just turned 23 years old this year and is on a team-friendly contract that he signed last fall prior to an impressive breakout season in 2023/24. The four-year, $55MM deal starts at about $15.6MM and descends from there, making it a relative bargain for a player who posted career highs in PPG (14.7), RPG (7.2), APG (3.8), FG% (.506), and 3PT% (.374) last season. The former Wizard immediately becomes a long-term building block in Portland.

The trade also ensured the Blazers will stay out of tax territory in 2024/25. Brogdon’s $22.5MM expiring contract exceeds Avdija’s ’24/25 cap charge by nearly $7MM, and the No. 14 pick would’ve received a salary just shy of $4.5MM, so Portland essentially trimmed eight figures worth of salary in the transaction.

Besides acquiring Avdija, the only other major addition the Blazers made this offseason was drafting center Donovan Clingan with the No. 7 overall pick in June.

It was a somewhat curious choice, given that Portland has no shortage of centers already under contract (Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams, Duop Reath). But the Blazers are still early enough in their rebuild to favor a “best player available” approach to the lottery, and Clingan – who was widely considered a possible top-three pick leading up to draft night – presumably fit that bill for them.

It’s not as if the Blazers already have a star at the position either. Ayton is a former No. 1 overall pick, but he has been inconsistent, isn’t an elite rim protector, and didn’t cement his place as the long-term answer in the middle during his first year in Portland. Williams, meanwhile, missed most of last season due to knee surgery, and Reath projects as more of a second or third option on the depth chart.

Interestingly, after trading away the 14th overall pick in the draft, the Blazers also opted not to use either No. 34, which they traded to New York for three future second-rounders, or No. 40, which they sold for cash.

I was a little surprised that a rebuilding and cost-conscious Portland team didn’t hang onto at least one of those selections, which would’ve allowed them to add another rookie on the cheap. But the front office must feel as if there are already enough projects on the roster for the coaching staff to develop — six Blazers players, including lottery picks Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, were selected in either the 2022 or 2023 draft.


Up next

The Blazers’ logjam at center makes them a logical candidate for a preseason or in-season trade. Ayton would be difficult to move due to his maximum-salary contract, but Williams is earning around the mid-level and could be an intriguing target if he’s able to show he’s back to 100% health.

The situation in the backcourt may not be best described as a “logjam,” but the Blazers are clearly hoping that Henderson and Sharpe will be their starting guards of the future. In the present, Anfernee Simons has the stronger résumé and probably wouldn’t be thrilled if he finds himself out of the starting five. That’s not to say that finding a taker for Simons is a top priority in the short term (there should be plenty of playing time to go around for all three guards), but it wouldn’t be surprising if his name pops up in trade rumors prior to February’s deadline.

Simons, Ayton, and Williams are all eligible for veteran extensions up until October 21, but are unlikely candidates to sign new contracts by that point — they each have two years left on their current deals, so if the Blazers do decide one or more of them are keepers, they could try to work out longer-term contracts during the 2025 offseason.

Jabari Walker is the least heralded but perhaps most viable extension candidate of the bunch. He’s entering the final year of his minimum-salary contract after averaging 8.9 points and 7.1 rebounds per game in a part-time role (23.6 MPG) last season.

As for the Blazers’ projected regular season roster, they’re currently carrying 14 players on guaranteed standard contracts and three on two-way deals, so barring trades, only the 15th standard spot looks up for grabs. Dalano Banton is probably the favorite for that last opening, with camp invitee Devonte’ Graham also in the mix.

Lakers Sign Christian Koloko To Two-Way Deal

SEPTEMBER 16: The Lakers have officially signed Koloko, according to the team, who confirmed in a press release that they’ve waived Hinson to open up a spot for the newcomer.


SEPTEMBER 14: The Lakers and free agent big man Christian Koloko have agreed to a contract, agent Calvin Andrews tells Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). Koloko will get a chance to compete for frontcourt minutes in Los Angeles, per Charania.

Koloko is expected to sign a two-way deal, according to Dan Woike of The Los Angeles Times (Twitter link), which means the Lakers will need to release one of their current two-way players. Armel Traore, Blake Hinson, or Colin Castleton currently occupy L.A.’s two-way slots.

Koloko is on the comeback trail after missing the entire 2023/24 season due to a blood clot issue. Sportsnet’s Blake Murphy reported in July that the seven-footer had received medical clearance to resume playing, while Andrews said last month that his client had a “major breakthrough” with his blood clot issue, which was addressed via corrective surgery.

Koloko is still awaiting formal clearance from the NBA’s Fitness-to-Play panel. Sources tell Woike (Twitter link) that while the 24-year-old can technically sign the contract before receiving clearance from the panel, the signing will have to be reviewed by the NBA, and he can’t participate in on-court work until he’s cleared.

The Clippers, the Spurs, and his former team, the Raptors, were also interested in signing Koloko, as Charania reported on Friday night.

The 33rd overall pick in the 2022 draft, Koloko appeared in 58 games for Toronto as a rookie, averaging 3.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.0 block in 13.8 minutes per game across 58 appearances (19 starts). He was the Pac 12’s Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player in his final college season at Arizona in 2021/22.

The Lakers will be without center Christian Wood this fall after the big man recently underwent knee surgery that is expected to sideline him for at least eight weeks, so they could use more depth up front.

Lakers Waive Two-Way Player Blake Hinson

SEPTEMBER 16: The Lakers have officially waived Hinson and signed Koloko, the team announced in a press release.


SEPTEMBER 15: The Lakers are waiving two-way player Blake Hinson, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype tweets.

Los Angeles inked Hinson to the two-way contract in early July.

Hinson, an undrafted 6’8” rookie wing, played two seasons with Pittsburgh after a two-season stay at Ole Miss. He also spent some time at Iowa State but didn’t play there.

Hinson, 24, put up impressive stats in his senior year, averaging 18.5 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. He shot 45.4% from the field and 42.1% on three-point attempts. The three-point shooting came at a high volume — he averaged 7.9 attempts per game.

The moves opens up a two-way spot for the Lakers, who reportedly intend to sign center Christian Koloko. Big man Armel Traore, another undrafted rookie, and center Colin Castleton currently hold the other two-way deals.

Hinson is expected to draw interest from several teams in free agency, Scotto adds.

Jazz Sign Max Abmas

The Jazz have signed free agent guard Max Abmas to a contract, the team announced today in a press release.

Abmas, who finished his college season at Texas after spending four years at Oral Roberts, went undrafted in June after averaging 16.8 points, 4.1 assists, and 3.1 rebounds in 35.1 minutes per game for the Longhorns across 34 outings (all starts) in 2023/24.

Abrams led the Summit League in scoring in each of his last three seasons at Oral Roberts, averaging 23.0 PPG in 92 games (all starts) with a .444/.394/.889 shooting line during his sophomore, junior, and senior years before transferring to Texas to take advantage of his extra year of eligibility.

After suiting up for Utah’s Summer League team and averaging 12.3 PPG on .452/.412/.778 shooting in four games in Las Vegas, Abmas will likely now end up with the Salt Lake City Stars, the Jazz’s G League affiliate.

While the Jazz’s announcement didn’t provide any details on Abrams’ deal, it will likely be an Exhibit 10 contract, putting him in line to receive a bonus worth up to $77.5K (on top of his standard G League salary) if he’s waived by Utah and then spends at least 60 days with the Stars.

The Jazz now have 20 players under contract, including 15 on standard contracts, three on two-way deals, and two (Abmas and Babacar Sane) on camp contracts.

T.J. Warren, Nassir Little Working Out For Kings

T.J. Warren is among several veteran players working out for the Kings this week, sources tell Sam Amick of The Athletic (Twitter link). The team is also auditioning Nassir Little and Jae Crowder, whose workout was reported earlier.

Warren, 31, was out of the NBA for most of last year before landing a pair of two-way contracts with the Timberwolves in March and eventually signing for the rest of the season. He got into 11 games with Minnesota, averaging 3.7 points and 2.0 rebounds in 11.4 minutes per night, but made just three brief appearances during the playoffs.

Warren hasn’t played a full season with anyone since he suffered a left foot injury that caused him to miss the entire 2021/22 campaign. He spent most of his career with the Suns and Pacers and was a star with Indiana in the Orlando “bubble” after the 2020 hiatus ended.

Little, 24, has been a free agent since Phoenix waived him late last month. The combo forward appeared in 45 games for the Suns last season, making two starts and posting 3.4 points and 1.7 rebounds in 10.2 minutes per night. He spent his first four NBA seasons in Portland before coming to Phoenix in a three-team trade last September.

Crowder, 34, played the past year and a half with the Bucks and averaged 6.2 points and 3.2 rebounds in 50 games last season while making 25 starts.

The Kings already have 14 players on standard contracts and would move into luxury tax territory by filling their 15th roster spot. However, two of those contracts aren’t fully guaranteed, so they will have options if somebody is impressive in a workout.

Keon Ellis seems safe on a non-guaranteed contract, but Orlando Robinson only has a $500K partial guarantee. Their contracts won’t become fully guaranteed until January 10, the league-wide guarantee date.

With 20 players currently on its offseason roster, Sacramento can make one more addition before the start of training camp.