Community Shootaround: Early Season Surprises

For the most part, it’s easy to tell who the NBA’s contenders and bottom-feeders are before the season. Similarly, fans can usually predict what a large part of a team’s given rotation is going to look like. But every year, there are several instances of unexpected players and teams breaking out or disappointing.

This season is no different and, through the first portion of the season, there are already some surprising trends and storylines.

In my view, the most disappointing start to the season for any team has to be the Grizzlies. Teams like the Pistons, Wizards, Spurs and Trail Blazers were expected to trend toward the bottom of the standings with young cores and growing pains. But the Grizzlies were the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference last year and acquired former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart. Of course, Memphis has been dealt an incredibly difficult hand with the 25-game suspension of Ja Morant and injuries to Brandon Clarke, Steven Adams and Smart, along with many more, and any team would be hard-pressed to overcome that.

Seasons are all about hot and cold streaks, and both the Clippers and Warriors are going through slumps after respective strong starts to the year. The Clippers began the year 3-1 and have gone 1-6 since acquiring James Harden, including losing six straight. The Warriors began the year 6-2 but have now also lost six in a row. I didn’t anticipate there to be as many growing pains with the Clippers and Harden from the jump, but I still expect they’ll get into form.

Not all surprises are bad though, and there have been plenty of pleasant ones to begin this year. The Timberwolves share the top spot in the west with the defending-champion Nuggets, which is eye-popping at first until you consider their elite defensive play and Anthony Edwards‘ unsurprising breakout.

The Rockets and Thunder look well ahead of the development curve, and hold two of the top six spots in the west. Chet Holmgren immediately looks like a star in his first NBA season for Oklahoma City while the Rockets have been aided by the additions of their veteran players and coach Ime Udoka.

For my money, the most surprising early season development is Dereck Lively IIs immediate importance to the 9-4 Mavericks. In his one season at Duke, Lively averaged just 20.6 minutes per game, though his role grew exponentially as the year went on. Still, when Dallas drafted him, I expected the franchise to bring him along slowly and allow him to get adjusted to the NBA.

Instead, Lively surged to the top of the depth chart, taking a choke-hold on the starting center position at just 19 years old. He’s averaging 8.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.7 stocks (steals plus blocks) in his first 12 games. His rise to the top has opened up so many things for the Mavs’ offense and Lively is a huge part of what looks like a top dog in the conference.

That brings us to our topic of the day: What early season trends have most surprised you the most? Do you agree with any of our choices? What players and teams have most exceeded or fallen short of expectations?

Take to the comments to weigh in on this topic. We look forward to reading your input.

Bulls Front Office Reportedly “Less Than Thrilled” With LaVine

The Bulls secured a come-from-behind, 21-point comeback win against the Heat on Saturday, but the victory wasn’t without drama, according to the Chicago Sun-Times’ Joe Cowley.

Star guard Zach LaVine “all but stormed off” the court and cameras caught him pulling his arm away from the team’s public relations director during an attempt to get him to fulfill his post-game media obligations, Cowley writes.

Just a miscommunication with the PR team,” LaVine said. “We’re all fine.

According to Cowley’s sources, Chicago’s front office was immediately made aware of the situation and are “less than thrilled” with LaVine’s actions. Further, Cowley adds that when coach Billy Donovan found out about the incident, he was “downright ticked.”

All of this comes off the heels of reporting over the past week indicating LaVine and the Bulls are both open to exploring a potential change of scenery.

LaVine is one of the league’s premier scorers, averaging 24.4 points and shooting 38.4% from deep since arriving in Chicago. Despite his individual success, the Bulls have just one playoff appearance in the six full seasons he’s been there and at 5-9 this year, look to be fast-tracking toward missing the playoffs or an early exit.

Of course, the Bulls’ issues don’t start and end with LaVine. To his credit, he emerged into a two-time All-Star there and Chicago has dealt with numerous issues during his time with the team. The biggest what-if facing this current grouping is the long-term absence of Lonzo Ball, who hasn’t played since Jan. 14, 2022 and isn’t expected back anytime soon. When Ball was healthy, the Bulls were 26-10 at one point and sat atop the Eastern Conference standings with this very core.

Additionally, the post-game issues could have truly been a misunderstanding. Still, Cowley reporting anger from Chicago management and coaching is significant and adds another chapter to the perception of disconnect between the parties.

Sixers Notes: House, Chemistry, Embiid

Sixers reserve forward Danuel House Jr.  has stepped up in the absence of injured wings Kelly Oubre Jr. and Nicolas Batum, writes Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. House had been behind starter Oubre and his primary backup, Batum, on the depth chart prior to their absences.

In just 18:22 of action Friday, House scored 14 points on 5-of-8 shooting from the floor against the Hawks. Philadelphia is hoping he can maintain that offensive momentum with Oubre and Batum still sidelined.

House is on the second season of a two-year, $8.4MM deal he signed with the Sixers in 2022. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent next summer.

There’s more out of the City of Brotherly Love:

  • With James Harden now in Los Angeles, the Sixers’ team chemistry is suddenly off the charts, writes Pompey in a separate piece. Philadelphia is 9-3 on the year, and looking to improve to 10-3 this afternoon in Brooklyn. Pompey notes that the selfishness of several prior rosters built around reigning MVP Joel Embiid seems to have dissipated with the club’s current personnel.
  • Embiid, meanwhile, looks to be making good on a preseason pledge to improve his passing this year, writes Gina Mizell of The Philadelphia Inquirer. He’s averaging a career-most 6.0 assists per game through his first 12 contests. “He’s been willing to pass, but this year, he’s really buying in,” House said. “He’s not worried about scoring 50 every night, you know what I’m saying? He wants to win.” Mizell notes that Embiid spent the Sixers’ preseason deciphering the best passing angles to use for connecting with his teammates on the court. “I never liked just being an [isolation] player,” Embiid said. “I don’t think that’s the right way to play, and I don’t feel that’s the right way to win.”
  • In case you missed it, the Sixers are said to be among the three potential trade destinations most preferred by two-time All-Star Bulls shooting guard Zach LaVine.

Northwest Notes: Alexander-Walker, KAT, Thunder, Watson

Multifaceted Timberwolves guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker finally seems to have created a unique niche with his third NBA team, writes Oren Weisfeld of Sportsnet.ca. Alexander-Walker’s versatile game has earned him plaudits from key Minnesota personnel.

“There was a lot of pressure on him when he came into the league, whether it be, you know, a lot of it was self-imposed,” Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch said of the guard’s early years in New Orleans, where Finch served as an associate head coach. “He was trying too hard, trying to do too much, trying to prove everything, wanted it all at once.”

In 19.7 MPG off the bench for the 9-3 Timberwolves, Alexander-Walker is averaging 5.4 PPG, 2.4 APG, 1.8 RPG, 0.8 SPG and 0.8 BPG.

There’s more out of the Northwest Division:

  • Though there has been much chatter swirling about the fit of star Timberwolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns alongside two other nominal centers, Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic submits that Towns’ superlative offense makes him worth retaining. On Saturday evening, he led Minnesota’s successful 121-120 comeback against the Pelicans, scoring 29 points while shooting 10-of-11 from the field, dishing out nine dimes, grabbing six boards and topping it all off with the game-winner. It’s games like that one that make Towns such an important piece on a club with major postseason goals, according to Krawcyznski, who opines that the Wolves are on too much of a roll with Towns to trade him, for now.
  • Although Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault is trying to temper expectations for Oklahoma City, the club is already looking much improved this year, writes Kendra Andrews of ESPN. Rookie center Chet Holmgren just turned in his best night yet, scoring 36 points while shooting 14-of-22 from the field, pulling down ten rebounds and dishing out five dimes. All-NBA point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, not to be outdone, chipped in 40 of his own. A clutch buzzer-beating triple from Holmgren propelled the Thunder to overtime against the Warriors on Saturday night, where the young team pulled out an impressive win. “We have a young team that will grow over time,” Daigneault said. “We don’t want to cap the potential of any of our players.” At 9-4, Oklahoma City might be arriving already.
  • Second-year Nuggets small forward Peyton Watson has earned regular rotation minutes this season. The UCLA product credits some tough love during his rookie season tenure with Denver’s NBAGL affiliate, the Grand Rapids Gold, for abetting his long-term development, writes Bennett Durando of The Denver Post.

Jabari Smith Talks Offseason, Rockets’ Start, Defense

Rising young Rockets power forward Jabari Smith Jr. had an active summer. His offseason included workouts alongside three current NBA greats, he said during an extensive conversation with Mark Medina of Sportskeeda.

Smith got in some summer run next to Suns forward Kevin Durant, Celtics forward Jayson Tatum, and Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard. Smith met up with Durant in Los Angeles.

“Before a pickup, (Durant) was working out and I just jumped in with him and his trainer,” Smith said. “It was pretty good. He pays a lot of attention to detail. It was good for me to see with just how hard you got to work, how consistent you got to be and how important it is to focus on the little things.”

He worked out with Tatum and Leonard separately from Durant.

“We played some one-on-one,” Smith said of Tatum and Leonard. “It was good to compete against them and learn from them. Like it was with KD, it was about observing their attention to detail. Everything that they do is the same.”

Through 10 games this season with Houston, the 6’10” big man is averaging 12.0 PPG on .467/.354/.556 shooting, along with 7.0 RPG and 1.2 APG.

Medina and Smith touched on a wide variety of topics, and their full conversation is well worth reading in full. Here are some highlights:

On what compelled him to explore yoga as part of his offseason prep:

“Recommendations from older players and people that also play in the league. It also came from players that are out of the league now that say they wish they would’ve done it earlier. I wanted to take the initiative to do it now. It’s made a big difference with my flexibility, my mobility and my overall recovery.”

On how head coach Ime Udoka and his staff has already impacted Smith and the Rockets, who are off to a fast 6-4 start:

“Just helping me learn the game and learn it fast. I take all that I can that I can learn from them. They’ve been around the game for a long time. It’s about the consistency and having a routine. They always preach routine. They tell me to trust in my work and trust in who I am and not to lose any confidence.”

On how he approaches defense against smaller star players:

“Just stop them, make it hard with them and be physical with them. Just try to go out with our principles and tendencies and make it tough on them. It’s going to be hard to shut them down with how good they are. So you just try to slow them down and make it hard for them.”

Knicks Notes: Barrett, Fournier, Grimes, Draft, Randle

After scoring at least 24 points in three consecutive Knicks wins between November 6-12, forward RJ Barrett was forced to the sidelines for three games due to an ailment that doesn’t often show up on NBA injury reports. As Stefan Bondy of The New York Post writes, Barrett was dealing with a debilitating migraine, describing the experience as “not anything I’d wish on anybody.”

“A lot of stuff going on. It was my first [migraine] as well,” Barrett said. “So definitely wasn’t the best feeling at all. It was terrible, actually. I’m feeling better now, thank God.”

Barrett didn’t exactly pick up right where he left off on Saturday, according to Bondy, who notes that the 23-year-old looked “gassed” in the first half. However, he picked up his play in the second half — he finished with 15 points and was a plus-16 despite making just 5-of-15 shots from the floor.

“You can’t take that amount of time off and not feel it,” head coach Tom Thibodeau said. “He was in a great rhythm, now we’ve got to get him back in that rhythm.”

  • After sitting out the Knicks’ first 11 games this season, Evan Fournier got an opportunity to play on Friday in Washington and logged nearly 16 minutes. However, after that game he was diagnosed with ankle inflammation, an ailment that sidelined him on Saturday and mystified him because he had “no clue” how it happened, per Bondy. “It was frustrating because it hurts,” Fournier said. “There’s not much to say, to be honest. It sucks. That’s it.”
  • Quentin Grimes has missed the Knicks’ past two games with a sprained wrist, but he’s already out of his brace and likely won’t miss more than one more game, a source tells Bondy. “It’s just a pain tolerance thing, so as soon as he’s comfortable enough, he’ll be out there,” Thibodeau said.
  • In a separate story for The Post, Bondy takes a look at the four 2024 first-round picks the Knicks control, observing that picks from the Wizards (top-12 protected) and Pistons (top-18 protected) look increasingly unlikely to convey, given that the two clubs sit at the very bottom of the NBA’s standings. New York will likely only end up having its own first-rounder and Dallas’ pick (top-10 protected) in next year’s draft, Bondy adds.
  • Julius Randle wasn’t able to do much of his usual work in the offseason while he recovered from ankle surgery, so it took him a little longer than usual to get going this fall. However, he has hit his stride lately, as Bondy writes for The Post. The veteran forward has averaged 24.3 points per game with a .455/.341/.708 shooting line in his last seven games after putting up 13.7 PPG on .271/.225/.618 shooting in his first six. “I feel better, more like myself,” Randle said. “I told you guys it would be a day-to-day process, me not being able to do much in the summer.”

Southeast Notes: Jovic, Anthony, Mosley, Bridges

Despite a promising summer that saw him play a key role for Serbia’s national team at the World Cup, Nikola Jovic has been unable to crack the Heat‘s regular rotation so far this season, appearing in just two games for the club. Noting that the former first-round pick “needs to play,” head coach Erik Spoelstra confirmed on Saturday that Jovic will be sent to the G League for “a few games,” according to Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald.

Jovic doesn’t see the assignment to the Sioux Falls Skyforce as a step back, explaining that he welcomes the opportunity to get on the court.

“I just want to play. That’s it,” the 20-year-old said. “I just want to get some playing time, stay in a rhythm, you never know what’s going to happen [with the Heat]. Maybe they’ll need more help from me, you never know. I just want to improve and these guys do a great job at it. Even being in the G League, I feel like it’s going to be great for me.”

As Chiang explains, while Jovic has flashed an intriguing combination of ball-handling, facilitating, and shooting for his size (6’10”), his defense is still very much a “work in progress,” which is a key reason why he hasn’t been able to establish a consistent role in Miami.

Here are a few more items from around the Southeast:

  • Speaking to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, Magic guard Cole Anthony suggested that competing in the World Cup helped teammates Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner become “more complete players” and said that making the playoffs is Orlando’s goal this season. Anthony also reiterated a point he made last month, telling Scotto that he’s happy to have resolved his contract situation by signing a rookie scale contract extension due to the security it provides. “It allowed me to play the game without the stress of worrying if I play badly that shoot, that’s my career,” Anthony said.
  • In that same conversation, Anthony lauded Magic head coach Jamahl Mosley for the role he has played in the team’s growth, telling Scotto that Mosley is “up front” and “candid” with his players. “I can tell why people in Dallas spoke highly of him,” Anthony said of the former Mavericks assistant. “He’s a really good dude who cares about his players about all of us beyond basketball. It’s been fun to play for him. He allows us to play through a lot of our mistakes. He’s also grown as a coach. This is his first head coaching gig. He’s doing a great job. He’s gotten better as a coach, and we’ve gotten better as players. It’s been fun.”
  • In an appearance on Sportsnet 590 The Fan (Twitter video link), NBA commissioner Adam Silver discussed the status of Miles Bridges, who returned on Friday from a suspension related to domestic violence charges, despite the fact that the Hornets forward faces newer allegations. As Silver explained, the league intends to let the legal process play out before deciding whether to assess an additional punishment related to those allegations.

Injury Notes: Brown, Mitchell, Payton, Anunoby, Alvarado

Celtics wing Jaylen Brown is considered questionable to suit up on Sunday in Memphis due to a right adductor strain, according to the NBA’s official injury report. The injury occurred during Friday’s in-season tournament game in Toronto, and Brown indicated after Boston’s win that a slippery floor was to blame.

“The court was just slippery all game,” Brown said (Twitter link via Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe). “I think as players we’re all here for the in-season tournament because it’s going to generate revenue, excitement, competition, but we’ve got to make sure the floor is safe to play on. We can’t put our players out there and risk their health. Tonight I thought the floor was unacceptable. I think guys were slipping all over the place, not just me.”

As Michael Grange of Sportsnet.ca relays (via Twitter), Raptors forward Precious Achiuwa seconded Brown’s complaint about the court, which was being used for the first time: “It was slippery, I fell a couple of times myself. The extra stuff is extra. I’m just trying to play basketball, at the same time, not trying to get hurt.”

Here are a few more injury-related updates from around the NBA:

  • Cavaliers star Donovan Mitchell will miss a second consecutive game on Sunday, having been ruled out vs. Denver due to a right hamstring strain, tweets Tom Withers of The Associated Press.
  • The Warriors provided a formal update on Gary Payton II on Saturday, announcing (via Twitter) that an MRI on his injured left foot didn’t show any structural damage and confirmed that he has a muscle strain in the foot. Payton, who missed Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma City, will be reevaluated again this weekend.
  • OG Anunoby has missed the Raptors‘ past three games due to a laceration on his finger, but he’s listed as probable to return for Sunday’s game vs. Detroit, per Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca (Twitter link).
  • Pelicans guard Jose Alvarado, who was upgraded to questionable for Saturday’s game, ended up sitting it out, further delaying his season debut. However, it sounds like that debut will occur soon. Head coach Willie Green said on Saturday that Alvarado has been playing 5-on-5 and is getting very close, tweets Will Guillory of The Athletic.

NBA Maximum Salary Projections For 2024/25

Although a number of big-money free agent contracts were completed over the summer, the most lucrative deals signed by players so far in 2023/24 have been contract extensions. And many of those extensions have been maximum-salary deals.

[RELATED: 2023/24 NBA Contract Extension Tracker]

Because those extensions won’t go into effect until at least the 2024/25 season and the NBA won’t finalize the ’24/25 salary cap until next summer, we can only ballpark what many of year’s maximum-salary contracts will look like based on the league’s latest cap estimates.

The NBA’s most recent projection for ’24/25 called for a $141,000,000 cap, which is the number we’ll use to project next season’s maximum salaries.

Listed below are the early maximum-salary projections for 2024/25. The first chart shows the maximum salaries for a player re-signing with his own team — a player’s previous club can offer five years instead of four, and 8% annual raises instead of 5% raises. The second chart shows the maximum salaries for a player signing with a new team.

A player’s maximum salary is generally determined by his years of NBA experience, so there’s a wide gap between potential earnings for younger and older players. Unless they qualify for a more lucrative extension by meeting certain performance criteria, players with no more than six years of NBA experience are limited to a starting salary worth up to 25% of the cap. For players with seven to nine years of experience, that number is 30%. For players with 10 or more years of experience, it’s 35%.

Here are the the early max-salary projections for 2024/25:


A player re-signing with his own team (8% annual raises, up to five years):

Year 6 years or less 7-9 years 10+ years
2024/25 $35,250,000 $42,300,000 $49,350,000
2025/26 $38,070,000 $45,684,000 $53,298,000
2026/27 $40,890,000 $49,068,000 $57,246,000
2027/28 $43,710,000 $52,452,000 $61,194,000
2028/29 $46,530,000 $55,836,000 $65,142,000
Total $204,450,000 $245,340,000 $286,230,000

The “6 years or less” column here is what the new extensions for Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, and LaMelo Ball will look like if none of them make an All-NBA team in 2024. All three players have Rose Rule language in their contracts, however, and could move up to the 30% max column (“7-9 years”) if certain criteria are met.

The 30% max column will also apply to players who reach the free agent market next summer with between seven and nine years of NBA experience under their belts. That would be Pascal Siakam‘s maximum contract with the Pacers, for instance.

The third column (35%) will apply to the super-max extension signed by Celtics star Jaylen Brown. Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns also previously signed super-max extensions that will begin in 2024/25, though those deals are for four years, so they’ll be worth a projected $221,088,000 instead of the projected $286MM+ that Brown will earn over five seasons.

It’s worth noting that when many of these contracts were signed, their projected values were initially reported based on a 10% cap increase rather than a 3.7% bump, since the estimates were coming from agents and represented best-case scenarios.

Ten percent would be the maximum allowable increase and it’s not out of the question that will happen — the NBA’s cap has risen by 10% in each of the past two summers. In that scenario, the maximum total value of these contracts would increase to approximately $217MM (25% of the cap), $260MM (30%), and $304MM (35%), respectively.


A player signing with a new team (5% annual raises, up to four years):

Year 6 years or less 7-9 years 10+ years
2024/25 $35,250,000 $42,300,000 $49,350,000
2025/26 $37,012,500 $44,415,000 $51,817,500
2026/27 $38,775,000 $46,530,000 $54,285,000
2027/28 $40,537,500 $48,645,000 $56,752,500
Total $151,575,000 $181,890,000 $212,205,000

If a player changes teams as a free agent, he doesn’t have access to a fifth year or 8% raises. So if someone like Tyrese Maxey were to sign an offer sheet with a new team next summer, he’d be limited to a four-year deal projected to be worth approximately $151.6MM.

If a veteran free agent with between seven and nine years of NBA experience – such as Siakam – wants to change teams in 2023, he would be able to sign a four-year contract worth up to a projected $181.9MM.

Paul George, Klay Thompson, or another veteran with 10+ years of experience would be able to earn up to $212.2MM across four years if they change teams as free agents in 2024. While it’s unlikely that George, Thompson, or any other 10-year veteran changes teams and signs a four-year, maximum-salary deal next offseason, it could theoretically be the first time in NBA history that a player receives a $200MM+ contract while changing teams.

Again, a 10% cap jump rather than a 3.7% increase would push these figures higher. In that scenario, a 25% max contract would be worth nearly $161MM, a 30% deal would be worth about $193MM, and a 35% contract would work out to approximately $225MM.

Jazz Notes: George, Offense, LaVine, Hendricks

The Jazz wound up losing Friday’s in-season tournament game to Phoenix, 131-128. That dropped Utah’s record to 4-8, including 2-1 in the tournament.

Despite the loss, Friday’s contest was a good showcase of how well Utah’s offense has been clicking since making a couple of changes to the starting lineup, writes Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune.

The first change came by choice, with first-round pick Keyonte George replacing Talen Horton-Tucker at point guard. The second choice came out of necessity — Walker Kessler is sidelined with an elbow injury, and head coach Will Hardy decided to add more spacing by starting second-year wing Ochai Agbaji.

George has averaged 11.0 points and 8.3 assists over his four starts, while only turning the ball over eight times. According to Larsen, the 20-year-old has an impressive two-man game with Jordan Clarkson, who has been on an absolute tear since the change was made, averaging 31.5 points on .552/.445/1.000 shooting over the past four games.

Having a strong floor general and five shooters on the court has created room for Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen to operate, Larsen notes, with John Collins sliding up to center after Kessler was injured.

Here’s more on the Jazz:

  • In the same story from Larsen, Hardy said he’s not sure who will start once Kessler returns. “We’re not exactly sure when Walker will be back, but it’s gonna be a big decision for us,” he said. “What we do with the lineups — you know, we always get caught up talking about the starters — but I think we’re just going to have to figure out how to blend it all together. Nothing’s really off the table at this point. … Offensively, you know, we have seen a pretty good flow right now. It’s been good for John. But Walker also hasn’t played a ton with Keyonte. So it’s hard to say right now.”
  • There haven’t been any rumors linking Zach LaVine to the Jazz, but Tony Jones of The Athletic considers the pros and cons of the team making a run at the two-time All-Star, writing that Utah hopes to return to the playoffs sooner rather than later, which is why the team was in the mix for Jrue Holiday before he was sent to Boston. Utah’s young core and strong offense could be good fits for LaVine’s game, but giving up assets to acquire a player on a long-term max contract who isn’t known for his defense may not appeal to the front office, according to Jones.
  • While George, who was selected 16th overall in June’s draft, has been seeing heavy minutes for the Jazz, that hasn’t been the case for fellow rookie Taylor Hendricks, who was the ninth selection. Sarah Todd of The Deseret News takes a look at the development plan for the team’s lottery pick, who has opened the season in the G League with Utah’s NBA G League affiliate, the Salt Lake City Stars.