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2023/24 NBA Over/Unders: Recap

October 24th, 2023 at 9:00am CST by Luke Adams

In the weeks leading up to the regular season, we’ve been examining projections for all 30 NBA teams for the 2023/24 season, publishing polls asking how many games each club will win. With the help of lines from professional oddsmakers, we’ve had you vote on whether each team will go over or under a given win total, from the Celtics (55.5) all the way through to the Wizards (24.5).

Here are the full results of those votes:

Eastern Conference

Atlantic

Boston Celtics (55.5 wins): Over (67.6%)
Philadelphia 76ers (48.5 wins): Under (54.9%)
New York Knicks (45.5 wins): Over (54.3%)
Brooklyn Nets (37.5 wins): Over (53.1%)
Toronto Raptors (36.5 wins): Over (56.9%)

Central

Milwaukee Bucks (54.5 wins): Over (76.9%)
Cleveland Cavaliers (50.5 wins): Under (52.0%)
Indiana Pacers (38.5 wins): Over (64.1%)
Chicago Bulls (37.5 wins): Under (61.9%)
Detroit Pistons (27.5 wins): Over (53.8%)

Southeast

Miami Heat (46.5 wins): Under (59.0%)
Atlanta Hawks (42.5 wins): Under (61.1%)
Orlando Magic (37.5 wins): Over (60.7%)
Charlotte Hornets (31.5 wins): Under (65.8%)
Washington Wizards (24.5 wins): Over (53.3%)

Western Conference

Northwest

Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (52.0%)
Minnesota Timberwolves (44.5 wins): Over (53.1%)
Oklahoma City Thunder (44.5 wins): Under (53.6%)
Utah Jazz (35.5 wins): Over (55.5%)
Portland Trail Blazers (28.5 wins): Under (50.9%)

Pacific

Phoenix Suns (52.5 wins): Under (52.6%)
Golden State Warriors (48.5 wins): Over (52.7%)
Los Angeles Lakers (47.5 wins): Over (57.2%)
Los Angeles Clippers (46.5 wins): Under (64.6%)
Sacramento Kings (44.5 wins): Over (71.3%)

Southwest

Memphis Grizzlies (46.5 wins): Under (52.1%)
New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Under (60.8%)
Dallas Mavericks (44.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
Houston Rockets (31.5 wins): Over (59.2%)
San Antonio Spurs (28.5 wins): Over (54.4%)

In total, our poll respondents favored 17 overs and 13 unders.

That’s a pretty typical divide, even though the combined projected wins of all 30 teams add up to 1,256 (there will be 1,230 games won this season). It’s easier at this time of the year to be bullish on a team’s offseason upgrades and envision a best-case scenario than it will be a few weeks into the regular season.

These were the five “over” bets that received the largest vote shares:

Milwaukee Bucks (54.5 wins): 76.9%
Sacramento Kings (44.5 wins): 71.3%
Boston Celtics (55.5 wins): 67.6%
Indiana Pacers (38.5 wins): 64.1%
Orlando Magic (37.5 wins): 60.7%

A vote share of over three-quarters for the Bucks’ over is pretty remarkable, given that their 54.5 projected wins represent this season’s second-highest total (the Celtics are No. 1, with 55.5).

While I certainly understand the enthusiasm for the addition of Damian Lillard to an already strong roster led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, it can sometimes take teams a little time to adjust to major changes like that one, and the Bucks will be prioritizing the playoffs over the regular season. It’ll be interesting to see how many wins they rack up.

In addition to being high on the top teams in the East – Milwaukee and Boston – our poll respondents don’t expect Sacramento to take much of a step back after winning 48 games last season for the first time since 2004/05. They’re also optimistic about the opportunity for two lottery teams in the East – Indiana and Orlando – to take a step forward in 2023/24.

Here are the five “under” bets that received the largest vote shares:

Charlotte Hornets (31.5 wins): 65.8%
Los Angeles Clippers (46.5 wins): 64.6%
Chicago Bulls (37.5 wins): 61.9%
Atlanta Hawks (42.5 wins): 61.1%
New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): 60.8%

In theory, with Miles Bridges back on the roster and LaMelo Ball healthy again, the Hornets are poised for a bounce-back season after a disappointing 2022/23 campaign that saw them drop from 43 wins to 27. But Bridges is already in legal trouble again and our readers clearly aren’t confident enough in the rest of Charlotte’s roster to expect much from them.

The injury histories of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Zion Williamson, and Brandon Ingram are presumably a major factor in our poll respondents’ pessimism about the Clippers and Pelicans. And while our readers are enthusiastic about Indiana and Orlando, they’re cooler on two other middle-of-the-pack Eastern Conference playoff contenders in Chicago and Atlanta.

Here are the five picks that were closest to 50/50:

Dallas Mavericks (44.5 wins): Under (50.3%)
Portland Trail Blazers (28.5 wins): Under (50.9%)
Cleveland Cavaliers (50.5 wins): Under (52.0%)
Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (52.0%)
Memphis Grizzlies (46.5 wins): Under (52.1%)

The Mavericks spiraled following the acquisition of Kyrie Irving last season, even though he played well alongside Luka Doncic. Our poll respondents are almost exactly split on whether those late-season struggles will carry over to this season or whether Dallas will bounce back.

I’m not surprised to see the Trail Blazers show up here — following the Lillard trade, they’re clearly in retooling mode, but there’s also a decent amount of talent on the roster, including Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, Anfernee Simons, and a rookie who could make an immediate impact, Scoot Henderson. There are a wide range of realistic outcomes for their season.

The Cavaliers and Nuggets are expected to be very good teams, but there’s a difference in opinions over just how many wins that success will translate to. As for the Grizzlies, I imagine voters would more heavily favor their under if we held a vote again today, given Sunday’s news of Steven Adams‘ season-ending knee surgery.

What do you think of our picks in general? Are there any results above that you strongly disagree with? Did you make any over or under votes within the last couple weeks that you’re second-guessing now? Jump into our comment section below and weigh in with your thoughts!

Three Players On Exhibit 9 Contracts Make Opening Night Rosters

October 24th, 2023 at 8:04am CST by Luke Adams

As we explain in a glossary entry, Exhibit 9 contracts are generally handed out by NBA teams to players who will only be with the team during training camp and/or the preseason.

The Exhibit 9 clause protects the team in case the player suffers an injury before the season begins. In that scenario, the club wouldn’t have to pay him his full salary until he gets healthy enough to play — it would only have to pay a maximum lump sum of $15K when it waives the player.

While most Exhibit 9 signees were released in advance of the regular season, three NBA veterans who signed Exhibit 9 contracts survived the cut and made their respective teams’ regular season rosters. Here are those three players:

Ryan Arcidiacono (Knicks)
Harry Giles (Nets)
Lamar Stevens (Celtics)

Note: Hornets guard Edmond Sumner was initially included in this list, but Charlotte waived him on Tuesday ahead of its season opener.

These three players will now be on one-year, minimum-salary contracts that will remain non-guaranteed until January 10. In order to secure their full-season salaries, they’ll have to stay under contract beyond January 7 (a player cut on Jan. 8 or 9 wouldn’t clear waivers prior to the league-wide salary guarantee date of Jan. 10).

As our list of non-guaranteed contracts by team shows, Arcidiacono, Giles, and Stevens are three of the 31 players on standard deals whose salaries for the 2023/24 season aren’t fully guaranteed.

Several of these players will receive partial guarantees by remaining on rosters through the start of the regular season, and a few more have November or December trigger dates that will increase their guarantees. However, none of those 31 players will lock in their full salary until Jan. 10.

Here are a few more items of interest about the NBA’s opening night rosters for ’23/24, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter link):

The Spurs have the NBA’s youngest roster, while the Clippers have the oldest.
Players are earning a combined total salary of $4.8 billion for the 2023/24 season. The Celtics, Nuggets, Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Heat, Bucks, Pelicans, Sixers, and Suns are the biggest contributors to that pool, as they’re all currently over the luxury tax line.
As our roster counts page shows, there are 12 open spots on standard 15-man rosters around the NBA. Those openings belong to the Celtics, Bulls, Cavaliers, Pistons, Warriors (two), Lakers, Heat, Timberwolves, Pelicans, Trail Blazers, and Kings.
The Nets and the Suns are the only two teams that haven’t filled all three of their two-way slots, as our tracker shows. They’re each carrying a pair of two-way players, meaning 88 of the 90 spots around the league are occupied.

Rockets Re-Sign Nate Hinton To Two-Way Contract

October 24th, 2023 at 7:01am CST by Luke Adams

After waiving him on Saturday, the Rockets have re-signed swingman Nate Hinton to a two-way contract, reports Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (Twitter link).

The move is official, per RealGM’s log of NBA transactions, as is the reported release of Trevor Hudgins, whose two-way spot was opened to make room for Hinton.

A 6’5″ wing who played his college ball at Houston, Hinton has spent most of his three professional seasons on two-way contracts or G League deals, appearing in 23 NBA games for the Mavericks and Pacers since 2020.

The 24-year-old played for the Cleveland Charge – the Cavaliers’ NBAGL affiliate – during the 2022/23 season, averaging 12.0 PPG and 6.3 RPG on .466/.383/.789 shooting in 27 regular season games (33.9 MPG). He appeared in three preseason games for the Rockets, playing limited minutes.

The Rockets have now made multiple changes to their two-way players ahead of the regular season, having also cut Darius Days in order to convert Jeenathan Williams to a two-way contract on Monday.

It’s unclear why Houston didn’t simply hang onto Hinton and convert him as it did Williams, since Hinton’s deal also included Exhibit 10 language. Negotiating a two-year deal would’ve required him to pass through waivers, but Hoops Rumors has learned that Hinton’s new contract is only for one year. He’ll be eligible for restricted free agency next summer.

Duane Washington Jr. Signs Two-Way Deal With Knicks

October 24th, 2023 at 6:40am CST by Arthur Hill

OCTOBER 24: Washington’s two-way contract with the Knicks is official, per NBA.com’s transaction log.

OCTOBER 22: The Knicks plan to bring back Duane Washington Jr. to fill their open two-way slot, sources tell Ian Begley of SNY (Twitter link). The 23-year-old combo guard was waived Saturday along with three other players.

New York converted Dylan Windler from a two-way deal to a standard contract on Saturday, creating the vacancy. Washington must go through waivers before being re-signed, but once that happens, the team will have a full roster with 15 standard deals and all three of its two-way spots filled.

Washington joined the Knicks on a two-way contract in late February, but didn’t see any game action. He was waived in July and then re-signed to a non-guaranteed training camp deal five days later.

Washington spent time with the Pacers and Suns after going undrafted out of Ohio State in 2021. He holds career averages of 9.1 points, 1.5 rebounds and 1.9 assists in 79 career games.

Pacific Notes: Green, Durant, Allen, Booker, Beal, Lakers, Westbrook, Huerter

October 23rd, 2023 at 10:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Draymond Green won’t play in the Warriors’ opener on Tuesday, according to Kendra Andrews of ESPN. Green was sidelined prior to training camp by a left lateral ankle sprain. He was cleared for 5-on-5 action on Sunday and participated in Monday’s practice.

“He’s doing really well but we don’t feel like it would be wise to throw him out with so little scrimmage time on the floor,” Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said. “We’ll reassess as the days go.”

We have more from the Pacific Division:

Suns star forward Kevin Durant will play in Golden State on Tuesday for the first time since he left the franchise and signed with Brooklyn. Durant says he’s looking forward to it. “I’m excited to play in front of those fans,” Durant told Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic. “I had some incredible moments there and we built a bond that doesn’t really have to be spoken about, me and the fans in the Bay Area. Feel like they’ve been supporting me way before I came there, actually. Then once I became a part of the Warriors, they just went even harder in support of myself and my teammates.”
Durant believes a recent addition to the Suns, wing Grayson Allen, will thrive with so many offensive threats around him, according to Gerald Bourguet of GoPhnx.com. “When he gets the opportunity to play with myself, (Devin Booker) and (Bradley Beal), I think the floor opens up even more for him, and we could play off him a little bit more as well,” Durant said. “He’s just a guy that can fit in. You see how many teams he’s played on and how well he’s played at each stop, so we’re expecting him to have a solid year this year.”
Speaking of Booker and Beal, they’re listed as questionable to play on Tuesday. Booker is dealing with left big toe soreness, while Beal has experienced lower back tightness. “We’re hopeful that they both play,” coach Frank Vogel told Rankin.
Jarred Vanderbilt and Jalen Hood-Schifino won’t play in the Lakers’ opener, Khobi Price of the Orange County Register tweets. Vanderbilt is dealing with left heel soreness while Hood-Schifino has a right patella contusion. Hood-Schifino will be reevaluated by team doctors on Nov. 3.
Russell Westbrook says he’s striving to be a positive force with the Clippers and won’t mind taking criticism if it eases the pressure off of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN writes. “When I’m playing, let me make sure I can make the game as easy as possible,” Westbrook said. “I take all the bullets for anybody. I take all the heat. I don’t really give a (darn) because I know what’s important to my teammates and to me that’s the most important part.”
Kings coach Mike Brown has challenged Kevin Huerter to be tougher defensively and he’s accepted the message, Jason Anderson of the Sacramento Bee writes. “I just think it’s early,” Huerter said. “For me, I’m not worried about the offensive side of the court right now. I think, like you guys have heard throughout this preseason, for us as a team and individually, it’s (about) being better on the other side of the court. We know what we’re capable of — really with anybody on the court — offensively. We’ve just got to continue to buy in and play the right way and do the things we’re supposed to on the other side.”

Pistons Notes: Bogdanovic, Morris, Hayes, Umude, Predictions, Thompson

October 23rd, 2023 at 9:21pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Bojan Bogdanovic (right calf soreness) and Monte Morris (lower back tightness) won’t play in the Pistons’ opener in Miami on Wednesday, according to Omari Sankofa II of the Detroit Free Press.

Bogdanovic’s absence will alter the lineup, as he’s penciled as the starting small forward. Morris, acquired from Washington in a trade, is expected to play a key role off the bench.

Killian Hayes, who has been dealing with a left knee sprain, practiced in full on Sunday after missing Friday’s preseason finale. He might fill in for Bogdanovic in the starting lineup.

We have more on the Pistons:

Detroit converted Stanley Umude to a two-way contract on Monday and it was a popular move in the locker room, Sankofa tweets in a video link. “That was probably the best part. seeing how happy they were for me. .. seeing that they knew how hard I worked for it,” Umude said.
Will the Pistons make a trade packaging multiple players? That’s one of the predictions James Edwards III of The Athletic makes, among nine others, regarding this season. Edwards also believes Ausar Thompson will be a All-Rookie First Team selection.
Expanding on that topic, coach Monty Williams marvels at how Thompson has an uncanny ability to snatch rebounds, Keith Langlois of Pistons.com notes. “Some of the rebounds he comes up with, I mean, you catch yourself on the bench, like, ‘Did you see that?’ ” Williams said. “I think there’s some stat about since Summer League, he’s gotten eight-plus rebounds every time he steps on the floor.”

Southwest Notes: Doncic, Hardy, Alvarado, Zion, VanVleet, Green, Rockets

October 23rd, 2023 at 8:10pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Good news for the Mavericks — Luka Doncic and Jaden Hardy practiced in full on Monday, according to Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News.

The team will reevaluate Doncic, who has been dealing with a calf strain, after Tuesday’s practice before a decision on whether he’s good to go for the season opener against San Antonio. Hardy has been dealing with an ankle injury.

We have more from the Southwest Division:

It’s not looking like Jose Alvarado will be ready for the Pelicans’ opener. The spark-plug guard was unable to practice on Monday, Christian Clark of the New Orleans Times-Picayune tweets. Alvarado has been dealing with a right ankle sprain suffered during an offseason workout.
The Pelicans explored trading Zion Williamson over the summer, multiple executives told Clark, but there was never any serious traction on a deal. A better outcome would be for Williamson to stay healthy and fulfill his promise. Williamson is hopeful changes to the performance staff will help him reach that goal. “The Pelicans have put in a lot of things this offseason to not only prevent things like that, but to react to it in the best way possible,” Williamson said. “I think what the Pelicans have done, there is good structure.”
The Rockets made a huge investment in Fred VanVleet and their new point guard believes they signed him at just the right time, he told James Herbert of CBS Sports. “It’s the perfect time for me to be here in this situation after the last three years that this organization has had,” he said. “Hiring Ime (Udoka) here, bringing a couple more vets with the young guys that they have, I think it’s just a perfect fit and it’s perfect timing.”
Josh Green‘s salary structure in his rookie scale extension begins with a $12,654,321 salary next season, ESPN’s Bobby Marks tweets. He’ll make $13,666,667 the following season and $14,679,012 in 2026/27.
In a subscriber-only story, the Houston Chronicle’s Jonathan Feigen discusses how the Rockets’ young core realizes that it’s time for them to start posting wins.

Maxey, Quickley, Williams Among Players Who Didn’t Sign Extensions

October 23rd, 2023 at 7:00pm CST by Dana Gauruder

An unusual number of players who were eligible to sign rookie scale extensions prior to Monday’s deadline inked new deals. A total of 14 players received rookie scale extensions in 2023, blowing away the previous single-year record of 11.

However, nearly half of the 27 eligible players didn’t sign a contract and thus will head to restricted free agency, if they are extended qualifying offers by their respective teams after the season. Otherwise, they’ll be unrestricted free agents next summer.

Perhaps the biggest name on the list is Sixers star guard Tyrese Maxey, though that comes with an asterisk. The Sixers front office and Maxey mutually agreed to put off an extension so that Philadelphia could maximize its cap room next summer.

Immanuel Quickley and Patrick Williams are two of the other big-time names on the list who didn’t reach agreements with their teams. While the Knicks and Quickley’s reps — as well as the Bulls and Williams’ reps — held extension talks as the deadline neared, they couldn’t come to terms on the numbers.

Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn (Raptors), Saddiq Bey (Hawks), James Wiseman and Killian Hayes (Pistons), Kira Lewis (Pelicans), Chuma Okeke (Magic), Isaac Okoro (Cavaliers), Aleksej Pokusevski (Thunder) and Obi Toppin (Pacers) are the other eligible players who didn’t sign extensions.

A full list of the players who did, or did not, sign rookie scale extensions this offseason can be found here.

Hawks Sign Onyeka Okongwu To Four-Year Extension

October 23rd, 2023 at 5:46pm CST by Luke Adams

5:46pm: The deal is official, the Hawks have confirmed in a press release.

4:47pm: The Hawks have reached an extension agreement with center Onyeka Okongwu, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (Twitter link), who hears from agent Sam Goldfeder that the two sides are completing a four-year, $62MM deal.

Okongwu, who will turn 23 in December, was the sixth overall pick in the 2020 draft. He has primarily come off the bench in his first three professional seasons, starting just 28 of 178 games for Atlanta.

However, Okongwu has gradually taken on a more significant role each year, setting new career highs in points (9.9), rebounds (7.2), and minutes (23.1) per game in 80 appearances in 2022/23 and posting impressive offensive rebounding numbers following the arrival of Quin Snyder, per Bobby Marks of ESPN (Twitter link). He projects to take on more responsibilities in the Hawks’ frontcourt this season with big man John Collins no longer on the roster.

While $15.5MM per year is a substantial price to pay for a reserve, it could turn out to be a bargain if Okongwu continues to improve and eventually replaces Clint Capela as Atlanta’s starting center. Capela’s name popped up in trade rumors this offseason and it wouldn’t be a surprise if that happens again in the coming months now that the team has made a long-term commitment to Okongwu.

His long-term contract agreement with the Hawks ensures that Okongwu becomes part of a record-setting class of rookie scale extension recipients in 2023. He’s the 14th players to agree to a rookie scale extension this year, blowing away the previous record of 11, which was set in 2021 and matched in 2022.

Hawks forward Saddiq Bey was also among the players eligible to sign a rookie scale extension by Monday’s 5:00 pm CT deadline, but he didn’t reach a deal with the team, sources tell Wojnarowski (Twitter link).

Rockets To Waive Two-Way Player Trevor Hudgins

October 23rd, 2023 at 5:28pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Rockets are waiving two-way player Trevor Hudgins, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype (Twitter link).

That opens up a two-way slot for Houston, which also has Jermaine Samuels Jr. and Jeenathan Williams on two-way deals.

Hudgins signed a two-way contract with Houston prior to last season after going undrafted out of Northwest Missouri State. He spent the season almost entirely in the G League, where he averaged 19 points per game for Rio Grande Valley. Hudgins, a guard, also appeared in five NBA games as a rookie.

He remained on the roster after accepting the Rockets’ two-way qualifying offer this summer.