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2023/24 NBA Over/Unders: Central Division

October 8th, 2023 at 9:57am CST by Luke Adams

With the 2023/24 NBA regular season around the corner, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2022/23, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’23/24?

We’ll keep our series going today with the Central Division…

Milwaukee Bucks

Cleveland Cavaliers

Indiana Pacers

Chicago Bulls

Detroit Pistons

Previous voting results:

Northwest

  • Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (52.0%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves (44.5 wins): Over (53.1%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder (44.5 wins): Under (53.6%)
  • Utah Jazz (35.5 wins): Over (55.5%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers (28.5 wins): Under (50.9%)
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Raptors Notes: Coaching Staff, Poeltl, Trent, Dick

October 8th, 2023 at 8:40am CST by Luke Adams

New Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic clarified the roles that several of his assistants will have this season, explaining that Pat Delany is his lead assistant and defensive coordinator, Jama Mahlalela will oversee the offense, and James Wade will be focused on analytics, per Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca (Twitter link).

In the second row of the bench, Mike Batiste will work with the Raptors’ big men, Jim Sann will work primarily with the team’s younger players, Ivo Simovic and Vin Bhavnani will focus on scouting, and Mery Andrade and Drew Jones will be player development coaches, Lewenberg adds (via Twitter).

Here’s more on the Raptors:

  • After signing a new four-year, $78MM contract with the Raptors this offseason, Jakob Poeltl won’t just be asked to set screens and be a rim-runner on offense. Rajakovic would like to run more of the offense through Poeltl this season, as Michael Grange of Sportsnet.ca writes. “Jakob is a great pick-and-roll player, but we’re going to use Jakob with the ball in his hands, we want to cut around him,” Rajakovic said. “He’s a really good passer, very unselfish player, so we’re going to be trying to play through him even more.”
  • Based on the Raptors’ lineups in scrimmages, it looks like the starting five will be Dennis Schröder, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and Poeltl, tweets Lewenberg. That would make Gary Trent Jr., who has started 128 of 153 games since arriving in Toronto, part of a second unit that also figures to feature Jalen McDaniels, Chris Boucher, and Malachi Flynn.
  • It remains to be seen whether veterans like Garrett Temple and Otto Porter Jr. will crack Toronto’s regular rotation, but they’re already providing value as veteran leaders for youngsters like No. 13 overall pick Gradey Dick, Lewenberg details in a TSN.ca story. “That’s the real OG,” Dick said of Temple. “Him, Otto, those guys are huge mentors to me right now. I can’t tell you the age gap between us; I can probably be their son. … I think it’s huge, [having] a guy that’s been in the league that long, learning the ropes from him and just trying to take everything that he says and put it into my game.”
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Pacific Notes: Beal, Suns, Kuminga, Reddish

October 7th, 2023 at 11:07pm CST by Rory Maher

The Suns made another blockbuster trade this offseason, acquiring three-time All-Star Bradley Beal from the Wizards. The 30-year-old guard has dealt with injuries the past couple seasons, appearing in just 90 of 164 regular season games.

In a Q&A with Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic (subscriber link), Beal says he’s fully healthy entering 2023/24.

“In year 12, this is probably the best I’ve felt for sure in the last three to four years,” Beal told Rankin. “And that’s all a testament to being able to get back to my routine in the summer. Granted I’ve had injuries in the past couple of summers. I had the birth of my child. I had COVID one summer. It was all over the place.

“Now I have a legit clean slate. Crazy new environment. New threads. New everything and now I have a legit chance to work on my body, work on everything through the offseason to make sure I’m in the right place starting today. I feel amazing. My body is in a great spot. My mental is in a great spot. Like I said earlier, just the focus is in between the lines.”

Here’s more from the Pacific:

  • Unsurprisingly given his reputation, new Suns head coach Frank Vogel has placed a high emphasis on defense this season, Rankin writes in another subscriber-only story for The Arizona Republic. “Be a physical, defensive-minded team,” Beal said of Vogel’s training camp message. “That’s going to come first. We know what our abilities are on offense, but if we’re not willing to guard, defend and get in the stance and hold each other accountable at that end, we’re wasting our time.”
  • Warriors head coach Steve Kerr praised third-year forward Jonathan Kuminga ahead of Golden State’s first preseason game against the Lakers, tweets Anthony Slater of The Athletic. “(Kuminga has had) a really good (week of) camp…He’s asking more questions,” Kerr said. “Really engaged. Pleased with the way he’s growing.” Kuminga had a strong performance in the game, Slater adds (via Twitter), notching 24 points (on 8-of-14 shooting), eight rebounds, four assists and two blocks in 24 minutes.
  • Lakers wing Cam Reddish, who signed a two-year, minimum-salary deal with L.A. in free agency, exited the preseason opener against the Warriors with a right ankle sprain and was ruled out for the remainder of the contest (Twitter link via Khobi Price of The Southern California News Group). The former lottery pick missed all four of his field goal attempts and was a team-worst minus-22 in 18 minutes in the Lakers’ loss.
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Nuggets Notes: Booth, Jokic, Strawther, Jackson, Holiday

October 7th, 2023 at 10:16pm CST by Rory Maher

In an interview with Mark Medina of Sportskeeda, Nuggets general manager Calvin Booth discussed a number of topics, including his roster-building philosophy within the financial constraints of the new CBA, maximizing the team’s championship window, attempting to repeat in 2023/24, and more.

While Booth says the Nuggets will certainly miss departed veterans Bruce Brown, Jeff Green and Ish Smith, he expressed confidence that Denver has players who can contribute off the bench, such as Christian Braun, Justin Holiday and Peyton Watson.

“Justin has been polished and has been around for a while,” Booth said. “I know he didn’t shoot the ball the best last season, but I feel like he has taken on the challenge to make sure he has a good year. He played fantastic in the intrasquad scrimmages. He made shots. He’s in the right spots. He guards.

“For Christian, the game has slowed down. He’s a two-way player. He brings athleticism, strength to the game, and the ability to make a shot. Christian will automatically start in Bruce’s role. He started in the scrimmages [on Friday]. Naturally, with more minutes and responsibilities, that opportunity for growth will be there.

“Justin Holiday is a pro. But guys like Peyton Watson, he’s seeing the game slow down and learning how to be a professional off the court, having a routine that he sticks to and getting work in. Let the chips fall where it may after you put the work in because a 21-year-old kid is going to make mistakes. The game is going to look fast for him. At other times, it’s going to look like he’s a master with everything. We have to roll with the punches with him because he’s a really talented kid.”

Here are a few more notes on the defending champions:

  • Finals MVP Nikola Jokic appears to be at ease entering ’23/24, which should bode well for the Nuggets, per Tony Jones of The Athletic. “I think our biggest concern with Nikola was just him being homesick,” head coach Michael Malone said. “We all like to be home with our friends and our family, and for him, his horses. Since he’s been back, we haven’t seen any signs of him being down in the dumps. He’s becoming an even better leader, not always just vocal, but with body language. He’s in a good place, and because of that, the team is in a good place. And it’s hard not to be. We’ve had a great run. We won a championship. And we’ve worked hard this week.”
  • Rookie wing Julian Strawther and veteran point guard Reggie Jackson recently sat down for interviews with Adam Mares and Harrison Wind of DNVR Sports (YouTube link). Strawther, Denver’s 2023 first-round pick (29th overall), says the Nuggets’ unselfishness and team play has stood out in his first NBA training camp. “I feel like that’s what really sets us apart from the rest of the league is just, everyone is so bought in,” he said. “And it’s kind of like a lost art today in basketball. Everybody’s kind of playing for themselves around the league.”
  • Jackson and Holiday may have earned rotation roles with strong performances in training camp, Wind writes for DNVR Sports. Forward Braxton Key, who is on a two-way contract, also had some good moments in the portion of Friday’s scrimmage that was open to the media, according to Wind.
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Rockets Notes: Green, Harden, VanVleet, Veterans

October 7th, 2023 at 8:55pm CST by Rory Maher

In an interesting article for ESPN, Zach Lowe details why Jalen Green could be the key for the Rockets to turn the corner in 2023/24 and beyond.

Green, 21, had impressive counting stats in his second season, averaging 22.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG and 3.7 APG in 76 games (34.2 MPG). However, as Lowe notes, the former No. 2 overall pick struggled at times with scoring efficiency (.416/.338/.786 shooting), decision-making (2.6 turnovers per game) and defense.

According to Lowe, Green has shown he can make all the pick-and-roll passes necessary to manipulate defenses, but has been inconsistent with actually executing them. Lackadaisical play on both ends has also been an issue, but the team believes it can be corrected.

“This is a huge year for him,” GM Rafael Stone told ESPN. “It’s on him to really put together all the things he’s worked on. You see individual games where he’s locked in — whether it’s on-ball defense, help-side defense, making the right reads in the pick-and-roll. And then there are other games where he just kind of let go of the rope. He’s a bucket. It’s about all the little things.”

Green will be eligible for a rookie scale extension next summer.

Here’s more on the Rockets:

  • Houston wants to lean into Green’s play-making, which is one reason why the team went after Fred VanVleet — who is adept at playing both on and off the ball — instead of James Harden in free agency, Lowe writes in the same story. “Nothing against James,” head coach Ime Udoka told ESPN, “but Fred is just a better fit. I coached James in Brooklyn. He’s one of the smartest players I’ve ever been around. The words ‘Ime doesn’t want James’ never came out of my mouth. It was, ‘Let’s look at the best fit.’ If we want Jalen and the young guys to take the next steps, we need them to have the ball. As for me saying I don’t want James, that was never the case. It was about fit.”
  • VanVleet has made an immediate impact on Houston with his leadership and savvy two-way play, writes Kelly Iko of The Athletic. “I’m more of a booster, a confidence giver, energy giver with all of these guys — especially Jabari (Smith),” VanVleet said. “Keep boosting and instilling that confidence because when guys go out there and play free, you’ll get the best version of them.”
  • VanVleet isn’t the only veteran the Rockets added in free agency this summer, with Dillon Brooks and Jeff Green also in the fold. As Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (subscriber link) writes, their experience and skill should help a young team going forward. “First and foremost, I would say experience,” Green said of what he will bring. “Being in every type of situation possible, winning the championship last year, going to the playoffs multiple years, I bring the experience itself and teaching these young guys what it takes to be a true professional. The winning aspect, what it takes, the everyday grind, them seeing it, I think it will help in the long run.”
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Knicks Notes: Fournier, Thibodeau, Sims, Goals

October 7th, 2023 at 6:57pm CST by Rory Maher

Veteran wing Evan Fournier was pulled from the Knicks‘ rotation last season and hoped to be traded this offseason. However, he remains on New York’s roster entering 2023/24 and doesn’t appear to have a clear path to playing time.

While it would be easy for Fournier to hang his head, he says he’s still trying to work his way back into a regular role with the Knicks, according to Stefan Bondy of The New York Post.

“I might be dreaming of stuff, but to me, I can help the team,” Fournier said. “Like I’m a good player. I can f—king play. I bring stuff that this team doesn’t have, too. So, I have hope to play, to be honest. I have hope to play. Maybe I’m crazy, I don’t know. 

“Maybe Thibs (head coach Tom Thibodeau) has already made up his mind and stuff, but my goal is to put him in a position where he has to think about playing me.”

Fournier, who is on a pseudo-expiring $18.9MM contract, says he didn’t contemplate holding out ahead of training camp and strongly disagreed with the tactic Jae Crowder chose last season, Bondy writes. The 30-year-old also says some of his comments over the summer about his dissatisfaction with his role were lost in translation (Fournier is French).

Thibodeau was mostly dismissive of Fournier’s offseason gripes on Monday, but he complimented him on Saturday, as Bondy relays.

“He’s a true pro,” Thibodeau said. “So he came in just doing all the things he should do.”

Here’s more on the Knicks:

  • Former Knicks guard Derrick Rose signed with the Grizzlies this offseason and seems to prefer Taylor Jenkins‘ training camps over Thibodeau’s, Bondy writes for The New York Post. “It’s ran different,” Rose said. “I’m just going to say that. It’s ran different. Here, it’s more smoother. It’s more fluent. And guys are really getting their work in. And that’s not saying the guys in New York didn’t get their work in.” However, free agent addition Donte DiVincenzo is pleased with Thibodeau’s camp. “He’s very detail-oriented, which I appreciate,” DiVincenzo said, per Bondy. “Going back to my college days, that’s why I’m in the NBA, playing for coaches who are detail-oriented. So, I think Thibs can bring the best out of me.”
  • On Saturday, Thibodeau singled out reserve center Jericho Sims as a training camp standout, tweets Steve Popper of Newsday. “Jericho has really had a great camp,” Thibodeau said. “He’s the one guy, obviously coming off the surgery, he had a great summer the way he worked. He’s really done a good job for us.” The Knicks fully guaranteed Sims’ $1.93MM contract for ’23/24 this summer.
  • With the help of a scout and a “longtime talent evaluator,” Bondy created reasonable goals for the Knicks’ projected rotation players entering ’23/24. What should Quentin Grimes be working on entering his third season? According to Bondy, slowing down and exercising more patience would be a prudent choice.
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Kawhi: Confident About Clippers Extension But No Rush

October 7th, 2023 at 5:41pm CST by Rory Maher

Clippers star Kawhi Leonard has been extension-eligible for a few months, but a new deal has yet to come together.

When Andrew Greif of The Los Angeles Times asked Leonard about the topic, he said he has a “good” relationship with the team’s front office and expressed confidence that an extension will eventually be reached, though it certainly doesn’t sound imminent (Twitter link).

“For sure,” Leonard said. “It hasn’t even been nothing that we’ve been rushing on their side, or my side. So, we’re good.”

Leonard, 32, can become a free agent next summer if he declines his $48.8MM player option for 2024/25. He will earn $45.6MM this season.

If Leonard signs an extension during the ’23/24 season, he would have to decline his ’24/25 player option as part of the agreement. He could make more money if he goes that route, assuming he’s offered another max deal.

A five-time All-NBA member, two-time Finals MVP and two-time Defensive Player of the Year, Leonard has been excellent for the Clippers when healthy, averaging a combined 25.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.6 steals on .496/.396/.881 shooting in 33.3 minutes per game. During the playoffs, he has been even better, averaging 29.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 5.1 APG and 2.2 SPG on .528/.375/.871 shooting in 26 games (39.3 MPG).

The problem, of course, is that Leonard has been injured for much of his tenure with Los Angeles. He has appeared in just 161 of a possible 308 regular season games in four years with the Clippers, having missed the entire ’21/22 season with a partially torn right ACL.

Leonard sustained a torn meniscus in the same knee during last season’s playoffs, which required another surgery, but is “fully healthy” entering ’23/24.

Fellow star wing Paul George also holds a ’24/25 player option and is extension-eligible. He recently confirmed he has discussed a new deal with the Clippers but said there was work to be done to reach an agreement.

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Four NBA Teams Carrying Fewer Than 14 Standard Contracts

October 7th, 2023 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

While NBA teams aren’t required to maintain a full 15-man standard roster during the regular season, they do have to carry at least 14 players on standard contracts. During the regular season, a club isn’t permitted to carry fewer than 14 players on standard contracts for more than two weeks at a time — or more than 28 total days.

[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: NBA Roster Limits]

We have a pretty good idea of which 14 or 15 players will be on most teams’ standard rosters to begin the season, but there are four clubs currently carrying fewer than 14 players on standard contracts.

For clarity’s sake, a “standard” contract isn’t necessarily a fully guaranteed contract. It’s simply a full-season deal that isn’t a two-way contract and doesn’t include Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 language. Four teams are carrying just 13 of those contracts.

In order for these four teams to set their rosters for the regular season, they’ll either have to keep at least one player on a training camp (Exhibit 9/10) contract or will have to add at least one new player via trade or free agency.

Here are the four teams to watch:

Boston Celtics

In addition to their 10 players with fully guaranteed salaries, the Celtics have Luke Kornet, Svi Mykhailiuk, and Dalano Banton on standard deals. Kornet projects to be a rotation player, and Mykhailiuk and Banton have partial guarantees, so all three players seem like good bets to make the 15-man roster.

Wenyen Gabriel and Lamar Stevens are also in camp with the Celtics on Exhibit 9 contracts, and one of those two guys appears likely to become Boston’s 14th man. It’s also possible both Gabriel and Stevens make the team to start the season — neither player’s salary would become fully guaranteed until January, so the Celtics would have some time to assess the duo while essentially paying them by the day.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have 13 players on fully guaranteed contracts and – like the Celtics – have a pair of veterans in camp on Exhibit 9 contracts. Veteran forward Rudy Gay and wing Rodney McGruder look to be vying to become Golden State’s 14th man.

If neither veteran impresses the Warriors, there are other ways the team could fill out its roster. For instance, a two-way player like Lester Quinones or Usman Garuba could be promoted to a standard contract and an Exhibit 10 player such as Donovan Williams, Kendric Davis, or Javan Johnson could fill that two-way slot. I’d expect one of Gay or McGruder to make the cut though.

This is another scenario where both veterans could technically make the roster if Golden State is comfortable carrying a full 15-man squad. However, it’s worth noting that both the Celtics and Warriors are well above the luxury tax line and may prefer to save some money rather than having a 15th man to start the season.

Miami Heat

After not trading for Damian Lillard or Jrue Holiday, the Heat looked like a good candidate to add one more veteran free agent, perhaps a point guard. After all, Miami only has 12 players with fully guaranteed salaries, plus big man Orlando Robinson, who has a small partial guarantee and will likely make the team.

However, the Heat – who have a reputation for finding diamonds in the rough – reportedly want to give themselves every opportunity to write their next UDFA success story. So for now, they’re content to evaluate their five young players on Exhibit 10 contracts and three on two-way deals to see if any one of them is an obvious candidate for a promotion to the standard regular season roster.

If no one from that group emerges as Miami’s 14th man, the club could still add a free agent before the season begins. It’s worth mentioning, given the team’s lack of depth at the position, that former Heat point guards Kendrick Nunn and Goran Dragic are still seeking new contracts.

Portland Trail Blazers

With the dust settled following a pair of blockbuster pre-camp trades, the Trail Blazers now have 12 players on fully guaranteed contracts, plus Moses Brown on a partially guaranteed deal.

Unlike the other three teams on this list, Portland isn’t a taxpayer, so there’s no reason the team shouldn’t be looking to carry a full 15-man roster to open the regular season. So perhaps there’s a path for two camp invitees to make the team.

Kevin Knox is the biggest name in that group, though he only has an Exhibit 10 deal. Big man Duop Reath is also worth watching, as he’s the only camp invitee whose contract doesn’t have an Exhibit 10 clause. That means he’s less likely to be ticketed for the Rip City Remix, Portland’s G League affiliate, if he gets waived.

The Blazers’ open roster spots also give them the flexibility to take on an extra player or two if they make one more preseason trade, perhaps involving Malcolm Brogdon. If no trade materializes by opening night, I’d expect the club to maintain that roster flexibility by not signing any more free agents to guaranteed contracts.

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Injury Notes: Bogdanovic, Achiuwa, Smart, Bouknight, Nembhard

October 7th, 2023 at 3:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Pistons forward Bojan Bogdanovic has sustained a low-grade right calf strain, the Pistons announced today (Twitter link via James L. Edwards III of The Athletic).

While there’s no indication that Bogdanovic’s availability for the start of the regular season is up in the air, he’ll miss the start of the team’s preseason and will be reevaluated in one week, according to the Pistons.

Here are a few more injury-related notes from around the NBA:

  • Addressing Precious Achiuwa‘s left groin strain on Saturday, Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic referred to the injury as “minor” and indicated the team is playing it safe with the big man. As Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca tweets, it doesn’t sound like the injury will keep Achiuwa on the shelf for long.
  • Grizzlies guard Marcus Smart is dealing with some minor abdominal soreness, according to Damichael Cole of The Memphis Commercial Appeal, who tweets that the club is being cautious with Smart and that he’s not expected to miss any regular season time as a result of the injury.
  • Hornets guard James Bouknight has been diagnosed with a left knee sprain, per the team (Twitter link). The severity of the injury isn’t yet known, but it’s a discouraging start to the fall for Bouknight, who isn’t a sure thing to have his $6MM rookie scale team option for 2024/25 picked up this month.
  • Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard, who is recovering after having a kidney stone removed, won’t travel with the club on its two-game road trip to open the preseason, tweets Scott Agness of Fieldhouse Files.
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Booth: Nuggets Preparing For Potential Super-Max Deal For Murray

October 7th, 2023 at 2:02pm CST by Luke Adams

Nuggets guard Jamal Murray is one of the players who would become eligible for a super-max veteran extension – worth 35% of the cap instead of 30% – if he earns All-NBA honors in 2023/24.

On the surface, that seems like a long shot for Murray, who has never received a single All-NBA vote, let alone made one of the three end-of-season teams. However, speaking to Mark Medina of Sportskeeda, general manager Calvin Booth said the Nuggets believe Murray can and will secure an All-NBA berth this season, suggesting that the organization is looking ahead to giving him a super-max contract extension.

“He’s really focused and locked in. I think he’s going to have a big season. We’re anticipating that we’re probably paying him the super-max. He’ll probably make All-NBA,” Booth said. “Everybody knows it’s out there, so we might as well talk about it. He obviously knows that carrot is out there for him. But more than the financial reward for it, he’s a competitor. I definitely think, even if he doesn’t say it out loud, that will definitely be on his mind and will be approaching the season that way.”

The Nuggets are already on the hook for one super-max contract for two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Adding a second one to their long-term payroll would reduce their financial flexibility going forward and would mean dedicating a significant portion of their cap to two players. Still, Booth’s comments to Medina make it sound like Denver would be open to offering a super-max extension if Murray qualifies for one.

“Obviously, it’s going to be a hit to our salary cap, but I love seeing people reach their potential when they play the way he can,” Booth said. “So if he accomplishes a goal and makes All-NBA, I know Josh [Kroenke] and Mr. K [Stan Kroenke] are big Jamal guys. So, we’ll step up and do what we need to do.”

Murray is currently eligible to sign a three-year extension that could be worth up to 30% of the 2025/26 salary cap (with 8% annual raises). If he claims a spot on an All-NBA team this season, he’d be eligible next summer to sign a five-year extension that begins at 35% of the ’25/26 cap.

We don’t yet where exactly the cap will land for that season, but the total value of Murray’s extension could double if he waits until 2024 and receives a super-max deal. With that in mind, it’s no surprise then that a recent report indicated the 26-year-old likely wouldn’t sign a new extension before the season.

Murray will likely have to make a statistical leap in 2023/24 to earn an All-NBA nod. He has had some memorable postseason runs – including this past spring, when he averaged 26.1 points, 7.1 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per night in 20 games en route to a title – but his regular season numbers have never been quite that gaudy. Last season, he put up 20.0 PPG, 6.2 APG, and 4.0 RPG on .454/.398/.833 shooting.

It’s also worth noting that Murray will have to appear in at least 65 games to qualify for All-NBA honors. Last season, his first one back following a torn ACL that forced him to miss all of 2021/22, he appeared in exactly 65.

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