2024/25 NBA Over/Unders: Northwest Division

With the 2024/25 NBA regular season set to tip off next month, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including Bovada and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2023/24, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’24/25?

We’ll continue our series today with the Northwest Division…


Oklahoma City Thunder


Minnesota Timberwolves


Denver Nuggets


Utah Jazz


Portland Trail Blazers


Previous voting results:

Atlantic

  • Boston Celtics (58.5 wins): Over (69.7%)
  • New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (58.8%)
  • Philadelphia 76ers (52.5 wins): Under (51.7%)
  • Toronto Raptors (30.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
  • Brooklyn Nets (19.5 wins): Over (54.3%)

Southwest

  • Dallas Mavericks (49.5 wins): Over (78.0%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins): Under (65.6%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (46.5 wins): Under (60.6%)
  • Houston Rockets (43.5 wins): Under (51.4%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (36.5 wins): Under (52.9%)

Southeast

  • Orlando Magic (47.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
  • Miami Heat (44.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins): Under (66.4%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins): Under (63.1%)
  • Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Under (56.6%)

Hornets Sign Marcus Garrett, Joel Soriano, Caleb McConnell

8:23am: The Hornets have officially announced the signings and confirmed that all three players, plus Johnson, are on Exhibit 10 contracts, as expected.


8:13am: The Hornets are signing free agents Marcus Garrett, Joel Soriano, and Caleb McConnell to training camp contracts, league sources tell Rod Boone of The Charlotte Observer (Twitter link).

Garrett, a 6’5″ guard who went undrafted out of Kansas in 2021, spent part of his rookie season on a two-way contract with the Heat and appeared in 12 games for Miami. However, the former Naismith Defensive Player of the Year has primarily played in the G League since going pro. He spent last season with the Greensboro Swarm and played for the Hornets’ Summer League team in Las Vegas this July.

Soriano, a 6’10” center, went undrafted in June after finishing his college career at St. John’s. The big man averaged a double-double (14.5 points, 10.7 rebounds) in 66 games during his final two college seasons while also chipping in 1.6 blocks and 1.4 assists in 29.3 minutes per contest.

McConnell went undrafted out of Rutgers in 2023 and spent his rookie year with the Oklahoma City Blue, the Thunder’s G League affiliate. The 6’7″ wing, a two-time Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year in college, averaged 7.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in 21.7 minutes per game across 47 Showcase Cup and regular season appearances for the Blue, who won the NBAGL championship in the spring. McConnell’s G League returning rights were recently traded from OKC to Greensboro.

Garrett, Soriano, and McConnell will almost certainly sign non-guaranteed Exhibit 10 contracts, which will put them in line to receive bonuses worth up to $77.5K if they’re waived by the Hornets, then spend at least 60 days with the Swarm. It’s worth noting that Exhibit 10 contracts can also be converted to two-way deals before opening night, and Charlotte does have a two-way slot open.

Prior to officially completing these three signings, the Hornets are carrying 17 players on their offseason roster — 14 on standard contracts, a pair on two-way deals, and one (Keyontae Johnson) on a camp contract. They’ve also reportedly agreed to an Exhibit 10 deal with Raequan Battle.

Khem Birch Signs With Fenerbahce

Veteran free agent center Khem Birch has signed a one-year contract with Fenerbahce, the Turkish club announced on Wednesday in a press release.

Birch, who last competed in the EuroLeague in 2016/17 with Olympiacos, spent six years in the NBA from 2017-23 before returning to Europe last season to play for Girona Basket in Spain.

Birch represented Canada in the Paris Olympics this summer and there was some speculation that his contributions on an international stage – he earned more minutes than Raptors center Kelly Olynyk in games against Australia and France – might lead to a return to the NBA. However, it appears the 31-year-old will remain overseas for at least the 2024/25 season.

In 282 total regular season games for the Magic and Raptors in the NBA, Birch averaged 5.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.0 assist in 17.1 minutes per contest. He registered averages of 8.8 PPG and 5.7 RPG in 12 Liga ACB outings (23.3 MPG) for Girona last season.

Birch will replace another former NBA big man, Luka Samanic, in Fenerbahce’s frontcourt. The team announced on Tuesday (via Twitter) that Samanic had left the team for personal reasons and returned to his home country of Croatia.

It’s unclear whether Samanic will return to Fenerbahce at some point or whether the two sides will part ways for good after finalizing a one-year deal in August. The former NBA first-round pick spent much of last season with the Jazz, appearing in 43 games for Utah and averaging 4.1 PPG and 2.4 RPG in 9.4 MPG before becoming a free agent this summer.

Los Angeles Notes: Guthrie, Lakers Trade Targets, West, Clippers Rotation

The Lakers are hiring Zach Guthrie as the head coach of their NBA G League affiliate in South Bay, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski tweets. The G League team has confirmed the hiring (Twitter link).

Guthrie had been an assistant with the Wizards since 2021. He also spent a season with Dallas and four seasons with Utah. Additionally, Guthrie served as the manager of advanced scouting for the Magic and was an assistant video coordinator for two years with the Spurs.

We have more on the Los Angeles teams:

  • Zach LaVine, Trae Young, Jerami Grant and Brandon Ingram are among the rival players who could be linked to the Lakers in trade rumors this season, Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report writes. Noting that the Lakers are pushed up against the second tax apron, Pincus believes that a trade would be their only path toward improving the roster. He takes a look at a dozen potential trade targets.
  • The Lakers will wear a No. 44 band on the left shoulder of their uniforms this season to honor Jerry West, according to ESPN Dave McMenamin. West played all 14 years of his Hall of Fame career with the team. He later served as a coach and executive with the organization. West, who was also a consultant for the Clippers beginning in 2017, died in June at the age of 86.
  • Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Ivica Zubac, who have all signed new contracts in 2024, are the only surefire starters for the Clippers. How will the rest of the lineup and rotation shake out? The Athletic’s Law Murray tackles that subject, speculating that free agent addition Derrick Jones Jr. and Terance Mann will likely join the above trio in the starting five with Norman Powell preferably slotted in a super-sub role. Two other offseason additions, Nicolas Batum and Kris Dunn, should also claim rotation spots.

Montrezl Harrell To Sign With Australian Team

Free agent big man Montrezl Harrell is headed to Australia, ESPN’s Olgun Uluc reports.

Harrell has agreed to a short-term deal with the Adelaide 36ers. The 2020 NBA Sixth Man of the Year will be an injury replacement for another former NBA forward, Jarell Martin.

Martin is still recovering from a patellar tendon injury and isn’t expected to be available until later in the year, according to Uluc. While Harrell could stick with the 36ers after Martin returns, the team would need to deactivate a local player to make that happen, Uluc adds.

Harrell played eight seasons in the NBA, most recently with the 76ers during the 2022/23 regular season. He averaged 5.6 points and 2.8 rebounds in 11.9 minutes per game that year.

Harrell was waived by Philadelphia in October 2023. He underwent knee surgery last August after he suffered a torn ACL and medial meniscus tear earlier that summer.

The 30-year-old’s best season in the NBA was with the Clippers during the 2019/20 campaign, where he averaged 18.6 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. In 515 career regular season outings, Harrell has averaged 12.1 points and 5.0 rebounds in 20.5 minutes.

Before reaching a deal with Harrell, Adelaide also considered former NBA players Justin Jackson and Thon Maker, sources tell Uluc.

Silver: League Still Isn’t Ready To Tackle Expansion

The league isn’t quite ready to explore expansion talks, NBA commissioner Adam Silver revealed during a Tuesday press conference. Silver addressed the media after the league’s Board of Governors meeting.

“There was not a lot of discussion in this meeting about expansion, but only largely not for lack of interest, it was that we had said to them that we’re not quite ready,” Silver said, per ESPN’s Tim Bontemps. “It was something that we told our board we plan to address this season, and we’re not quite ready yet. But I think there’s certainly interest in the process, and I think that we’re not there yet in terms of having made any specific decisions about markets or even frankly to expand.”

Expansion has been put off while the league negotiated a new Collective Bargaining Agreement and reached new broadcast deals. With those items in the rear view mirror, the league could eventually discuss expansion in the coming months. The first step in that process, according to Bontemps, would be forming a committee of several owners to explore the topic and determine what the next steps would be.

Here’s more from Silver’s press conference and the BOG meeting:

  • The commissioner would prefer that legalized sports betting had a “federal framework,” rather than being a state competition with varying rules. “I was in favor of a federal framework for sports betting. I still am,” he said. “I still think that the hodgepodge of state by state, it makes it more difficult for the league to administer it. I think it creates competition, understandably, among states to get — just think New York, New Jersey or a situation like that where you’re both competing for the same customer, so you can compete on tax rates and other things and a regulatory framework.”
  • The league is essentially in wait-and-see mode regarding the potential sales of two franchises, the Timberwolves and the Celtics, according to The Associated Press’ Tim Reynolds. Minnesota’s dispute between current majority owner Glen Taylor and potential majority owners Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez is headed to arbitration. “That’s a process that exists independent of the league that was set out in the sales agreement,” Silver said. Boston’s ownership group, led by Wyc Grousbeck, intends to sell the majority of its shares later this year or early next year, then close on a sale of the balance of remaining shares in 2028. “I think that Wyc Grousbeck and his ownership group are in the process of working through what the steps will be,” Silver said.
  • Raptors Governor and Chairman of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment Larry Tanenbaum has been re-elected as the Board’s chairman, NBA Communications tweets. Tanenbaum has served in that role since 2017.
  • The league could have a national streaming RSN platform as soon as the 2025/26 season, according to the Sports Business Journal’s Tom Friend. Numerous teams were affected Diamond Sports bankruptcy proceedings. Diamond is the parent company of Bally Sports. “I think coming out of this, when we look at the interest of streaming services to carry local games and all the additional functionality that will come to that, there will be a transition and transition for our viewers, as well, in terms of how they discover those games and how they watch them, that I think the end result will be a much better consumer experience,” Silver said.

Southwest Notes: Mamukelashvili, Spurs, Washington, Edey

After initially tendering Sandro Mamukelashvili a qualifying offer in June to make him a restricted free agent, the Spurs renounced the big man’s rights in July in order to maximize their cap room. While Mamukelashvili wasn’t sure at that point what his future held, he tells Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News (subscription required) that his “heart loves San Antonio” and that he was glad to end up re-signing with the Spurs on a one-year, minimum-salary contract.

“You always want to be bought into something special and be a part of something special,” Mamukelashvili said. “With Victor (Wembanyama) being here and adding a couple veterans and some great young guys, it’s something you want to be a part of. It’s constant growth. Nobody’s just sitting laid back. Everybody comes to the gym and works hard. You want to be part of that.”

It’s the second straight summer that Mamukelashvili has re-signed with the Spurs on a one-year deal. He admitted to McDonald that he wasn’t quite as stressed out during his most recent foray into free agency, in part because teams besides the Spurs expressed interest in him.

“My first free agency, if you saw me you would have thought I was a dead man walking,” Mamukelashvili said. “I was not sleeping. I’m on Twitter like, ‘What’s going on? Just give me a minimum deal, you know?'”

Mamukelashvili didn’t play a ton in his first full season in San Antonio in 2023/24, averaging 4.1 points and 3.2 rebounds in 9.8 minutes per game across 46 appearances (five starts). The 25-year-old’s playing time is unlikely to increase substantially in his fourth season, but he’s OK with the idea of accepting a modest role.

“A guy in my situation, just one more year in the league is already a celebration,” he said.

Here’s more from around the Southwest:

  • The Spurs announced on Tuesday in a press release that they’ve hired Mike Noyes as an assistant coach and director of player development while also promoting Josh Larson to general manager of the Austin Spurs and former NBA big man Gorgui Dieng to Austin’s assistant GM. Noyes has spent the past six seasons with the Grizzlies, most recently as a player development coach. Larson has been in the Spurs organization since 2019, while Dieng was hired in 2023 following his retirement as a player.
  • Speaking at a youth basketball camp in Dallas over the weekend, veteran forward P.J. Washington said he believes the Mavericks are capable of winning a title after their offseason moves and discussed the areas of his own game that he’s working on improving, as Mike Curtis of The Dallas Morning News relays. “My ball-handling, being able to rebound the ball and just push and be another outlet,” Washington said. “Being able to shoot off the dribble. Pretty much everything. Working on finishing through contact. Just trying to be a better three-level scorer and trying to be a better play-maker.”
  • Damichael Cole of The Memphis Commercial Appeal explores what Grizzlies fans should realistically expect from rookie center Zach Edey, who will likely be asked to play a significant role in his first NBA season.

Jae Crowder Working Out With Kings

Free agent forward Jae Crowder is working out this week with the Kings, sources tell Sean Cunningham of Fox 40 Sacramento (Twitter link).

As Cunningham explains, Crowder is in town to join Kings players seeking “on-court competition” ahead of training camp next month. As was the case with Isaiah Thomasworkouts in Sacramento last month, it’s unclear whether Crowder is explicitly getting an opportunity to audition for management or if the sessions are more informal. Either way, it certainly wouldn’t hurt his case for a contract to perform well.

Crowder has appeared in over 800 regular season games since making his NBA debut in 2012. The 34-year-old has averaged 9.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 1.6 assists in 25.0 minutes per game across 12 seasons, posting a shooting line of .419/.348/.777. In his prime years, he played a key three-and-D role on contending teams in Boston, Cleveland, Utah, Miami, and Phoenix.

Crowder spent the past season-and-a-half with the Bucks and averaged 6.4 PPG and 3.4 RPG with a .371 3PT% in 68 games (22.0 MPG). However, he struggled mightily across two postseasons in Milwaukee, making 6-of-25 shots (24.0%) from the field, including 1-of-13 three-pointers (7.7%), as the team was outscored by 43 points during his 83 playoff minutes.

The Kings currently have 14 players on standard contracts and would surpass the luxury tax line if they add a 15th man. However, two of those 14 contracts aren’t fully guaranteed, so the team still has a little roster flexibility below the tax.

Keon Ellis, who is on a non-guaranteed contract, probably isn’t going anywhere, but Orlando Robinson, who has a $500K partial guarantee, isn’t a lock to spend the entire season with the club. Of course, there’s also nothing stopping Sacramento from adding a 15th man and going into tax territory, then ducking below that threshold with a move later in the season.

NBA Approves Expanded Use Of Replay On Out-Of-Bounds Challenges

The NBA Board of Governors voted on Tuesday to approve an expanded use of video replay on coach’s challenges for out-of-bounds calls, according to an announcement from the league. The change will take effect for the 2024/25 season.

Under the new rule, if an instant replay of an out-of-bounds call is triggered by a coach’s challenge, referees will have the ability not just to review who last touched the ball but also whether a foul should have been called.

Within its press release, the league included a video of a crucial last-minute play involving the Mavericks and Timberwolves from Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals to illustrate how the new rule will work.

In that case, referees initially ruled that the ball was last touched by Mavs guard Kyrie Irving before going out of bounds. Dallas challenged the call and it was determined that Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels actually touched it last, giving possession to the Mavs, whose challenge was deemed successful.

However, the video replay also showed that Irving fouled McDaniels on his left arm before the ball landed out of bounds, which wasn’t reviewable at the time. If the new rule had been in effect, officials could have called that foul on Irving, giving the Wolves possession of the ball or free throws (if Minnesota was in the bonus) and rendering the Mavs’ challenge unsuccessful.

According to the NBA’s announcement, the competition committee unanimously recommended the rule change to the Board of Governors, who voted to implement it.

Checking In On Notable Remaining Free Agents

Nearly two-and-a-half months after the 2024 free agent period opened, 48 of the 50 players who showed up on our list of this summer’s top 50 FAs have signed new contracts.

Cavaliers forward Isaac Okoro, the only restricted free agent remaining on the market, is easily the top player left from our top-50 list, having come in at No. 20. As we wrote at the time, Okoro’s age (23) and defensive ability make him an intriguing option, but he certainly doesn’t come without risk:

“Okoro has flashed real three-and-D upside but has never contributed enough offensively to become an above-average starter. This past season was his best, as he bumped his 3PT% up to 39.1%, but he’s still not shooting all that much (3.1 three-point attempts per game) and his dud of a postseason (5.5 PPG on .357/.257/.778 shooting) did nothing to boost his stock heading into the offseason.”

When we asked over the weekend how Okoro’s free agency will resolve, approximately 60% of our poll respondents predicted that he’d eventually accept his $11.8MM qualifying offer, which would line him up to return to the market as an unrestricted free agent in 2025.

The only other unsigned player on our top-50 list is former No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz, who ranked 43rd. When I first previewed the point guard free agent class in a Front Office article last May, I said that Fultz’s value was difficult to pin down and that I wouldn’t be surprised if he returned to the Magic on a deal in the $10-15MM range or if he ended up settling for the veteran’s minimum. Clearly, the latter scenario is the more likely outcome at this point.

Here’s part of what we wrote about Fultz in our top-50 breakdown:

“Injuries have limited him to 234 total regular season games since he was drafted in 2017, but his performance in 2022/23 as Orlando’s starting point guard was legitimately impressive (14.0 PPG, 5.7 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.5 SPG, .514 FG%). Unfortunately, he took a step back this past season in terms of both availability and production, and between his injury history and his shortcomings as a shooter, it’s unclear how popular he’ll be on the open market.”

I’d still be surprised if Fultz doesn’t end up on an NBA roster in 2024/25. If you don’t need to rely him to stay healthy and play a major role, he’s a nice option to have off the bench as a change of pace. But it doesn’t bode well for him that he has yet to find a new home.

Here are some other free agents who didn’t make our top 50 but who could receive consideration from NBA teams before the season begins:

Guards

Outside of Fultz, the point guard market looks pretty bare, but Dennis Smith Jr. is a player with a similar skill set (strong defense; not much of a shooter) who is still seeking a home.

Jacob Gilyard would make sense for a team looking to sign a point guard to a two-way deal. Javon Freeman-Liberty and Lester Quinones are among the other youngsters who could warrant a look. Veterans like Isaiah Thomas, Ish Smith, and Ryan Arcidiacono are also available but don’t have the appeal they once did.

A team seeking shooting help should take a long look at Landry Shamet, who is coming off a down year but made 38.8% of 5.2 three-point attempts per game across five seasons from 2018-23.

Other intriguing names still on the market include Victor Oladipo, James Bouknight, and Joshua Primo. A two-time All-Star, Oladipo hasn’t been able to get healthy enough to contribute positive minutes in recent years. Bouknight and Primo are former lottery picks, but Bouknight didn’t establish himself as a reliable rotation player during his three years in Charlotte and Primo has had trouble finding consistent work since being accused of exposing himself to women in San Antonio.

Wings

Jae Crowder, Robert Covington, and Wesley Matthews were once highly coveted three-and-D wings, but they’ve lost a step since their prime years. That’s probably true of Justin Holiday and Reggie Bullock too. All five of those guys are at least 33 years old.

Doug McDermott, who will turn 33 during the 2024/25 season, has long been one of the NBA’s best outside shooters (career .410 3PT%), but his defensive shortcomings have made him a little-used specialist — his 14.1 minutes per game last season represented his lowest mark since his rookie year in ’14/15. Danuel House and Troy Brown are among the other unsigned wings who saw their playing time dip last season.

I thought Oshae Brissett would have an easier time finding work after he declined his player option with the Celtics. He wasn’t great in a limited role last season, but he’s still just 26 years old and has shown promise in the past. Nassir Little is another player coming off a down year who is still young (24) and flashed upside in previous seasons.

Eugene Omoruyi, Lamar Stevens, Kevin Knox, and T.J. Warren are a few more of the wings still seeking contracts.

Bigs

A team in the market for a backup center still has a few veterans to choose from, including JaVale McGee, Bismack Biyombo, Robin Lopez, and Boban Marjanovic.

Those are the safe options. A club looking for more upside might want to take a shot on Montrezl Harrell, who is now over a year removed from a torn ACL, or Moses Brown, an athletic big man who has played for six different teams before his 25th birthday.

Veteran power forwards like Thaddeus Young and Danilo Gallinari may be nearing the end of the road. Gallinari, at least, has expressed interest in playing one more season.

The best power forward still on the market is probably Marcus Morris, who played a major role (65 starts, 28.1 MPG) for the Clippers just two seasons ago and made 40.3% of his three-pointers for Philadelphia and Cleveland in 2023/24.