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How Early Hot, Cold Streaks May Impact Traded Draft Picks

November 9th, 2018 at 2:55pm CST by Luke Adams

The Raptors, Nuggets, Bucks, Grizzlies, and Kings are among the NBA teams that have made the strongest impression in the first month of the 2018/19 season, outperforming expectations early in the year. On the other end of the spectrum, the Cavaliers and Mavericks have been among the league’s worst teams, underperforming expectations that weren’t all that high to begin with.

These teams all have something in common — they’ve traded away their 2019 first-round picks, often with protections on them. We still have about 70 games to go in ’18/19, so it’s way too early to determine exactly where those picks will fall, or even whether or not they’ll changes hands in many cases. However, based on what we’ve seen from those teams so far, we have a better idea of what to expect the rest of the way than we did a month ago.

Let’s take a look at how some of those early-season trades may affect 2019’s traded first round picks…

Toronto Raptors (11-1)
First-round pick traded to Spurs (top-20 protected)

Even with top-20 protection, this pick looks like a very safe bet to change hands. If the season ended today, it would be No. 30, since Toronto has the NBA’s best record.

Denver Nuggets (9-2)
First-round pick traded to Nets (top-12 protected)

After a season in which the Nuggets narrowly missed the playoffs, it wasn’t unreasonable for Brooklyn to hope this pick would fall in the mid-teens. Instead, with Denver looking like one of the Western Conference’s best teams so far, it may land well into the 20s.

Milwaukee Bucks (9-2)
First-round pick traded to Suns (top-3 protected; 17-30 protected)

The unusual protections on this pick will likely to prevent it from changing hands for a second consecutive year, since it projects to fall in the 17-30 range. If Milwaukee’s 2019 first-rounder doesn’t convey, the Bucks would owe the Suns their 2020 first-rounder, with top-7 protection.

Memphis Grizzlies (6-4)
First-round pick traded to Celtics (top-8 protected)

After finishing last season with a 22-60 record, the Grizzlies were no lock to take a major step forward in 2018/19. In the early going though, the club looks like a legitimate playoff contender. Assuming Memphis can remain in the postseason mix, even if it’s just on the outskirts, this pick should stay out of the top eight and get sent to Boston.

Sacramento Kings (6-5)
First-round pick traded to Sixers (if it’s No. 1 overall or if it’s less favorable than Sixers’ pick) or Celtics (if it’s more favorable than Sixers’ pick and isn’t No. 1 overall)

The Kings, who were expected to be one of the NBA’s worst teams entering the season, would generate some fascinating drama between the Sixers and Celtics if their pick ends up in play for No. 1 overall. However, Sacramento’s young roster has created more problems than anticipated for opponents so far, with the team occupying a playoff spot for now.

Despite the Kings’ hot start, a finish in the lottery still seems likely, but if Sacramento keeps exceeding expectations, the team’s first-round pick will almost certainly end up in Boston instead of Philadelphia, avoiding that No. 1 spot.

Los Angeles Clippers (6-5)
First-round pick traded to Celtics (top-14 protected)

This could be one to watch all season long — the Clippers currently hold a playoff spot in the West by one game, but teams like the Jazz, Lakers, Pelicans, and Rockets are right on their tail. If the Clips eventually fall out of the top eight in the West, they’ll keep their 2019 pick and would owe Boston their top-14 protected 2020 first-rounder. If L.A. keeps winning, the Celtics have a real shot at ending up with four first-rounders next spring.

Dallas Mavericks (3-8)
First-round pick traded to Hawks (top-5 protected)

After drafting NBA-ready prospect Luka Doncic and signing DeAndre Jordan, the Mavericks hoped to contend for the postseason and expected to lose this pick. Given the way Dallas has struggled so far, that no longer looks like a sure thing. I don’t view the Mavs as a bottom-five team in the NBA, but if they don’t turn things around soon, an aggressive second-half tank is a possibility. The Hawks would love for this pick to land in the back half of the top 10.

Cleveland Cavaliers (1-10)
First-round pick traded to Hawks (top-10 protected)

While Atlanta may luck out with the Mavs’ pick, the Hawks will probably have to wait at least one more year to get anything from the Cavaliers, who have the NBA’s worst record so far and aren’t exactly in position to turn things around. If the Cavs keep their 2019 first-rounder, they’ll owe the Hawks their top-10 protected 2020 pick.

Mike Muscala Breaks Nose, Out At Least A Week

November 7th, 2018 at 2:33pm CST by Luke Adams

The Sixers continue to have trouble getting all their new rotation players healthy at the same time. Wilson Chandler is back in action now, but Mike Muscala will miss at least the next week after breaking his nose in a practice on Tuesday, per the team (link via Chris Mannix of SI.com).

No Jimmy Butler Resolution Appears Imminent

November 7th, 2018 at 11:56am CST by Luke Adams

No resolution appears imminent on the Jimmy Butler front, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic, who reports that the Timberwolves “never” showed any willingness to accept the Rockets‘ previously reported offer of Brandon Knight, Marquese Chriss, and four first-round draft picks. Accepting a package that featured a pair of probable non-rotation players and a handful of picks with uncertain conditions was a “non-starter” for Tom Thibodeau, league sources tell Charania. Charania also reaffirms something we’ve heard within the last week or two, writing that there’s a belief around the NBA that the Heat and/or Sixers could re-engage the Timberwolves at some point on Butler.

Sixers' Rotation In Flux; Bodner Examines McConnell's Future

November 6th, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by Luke Adams

The Sixers‘ rotation is in flux to some extent, with the team struggling to integrate newcomers Wilson Chandler and Mike Muscala as smoothly as they integrated Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Belinelli last season. As Sarah Todd of Philly.com details, injuries and a lack of defined roles for Chandler and Muscala have helped magnify those issues.
In a mailbag for The Athletic, Derek Bodner examines T.J. McConnell‘s future with the Sixers, suggesting that he’s one of the more likely players on the roster to be traded this season. In Bodner’s view, it’s hard to envision McConnell having a role on the club beyond this season unless something goes “terribly wrong” with Markelle Fultz.

Eastern Notes: Korver, LaVine, Celtics, Kanter

November 5th, 2018 at 10:55pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Sixers, Thunder or Lakers are the most likely landing spots for veteran sharpshooter Kyle Korver, Jordan Greer of the Sporting News opines. Korver is likely to get traded or bought out by a Cavaliers team that suddenly finds itself in a rebuilding mode. The combination of Korver and J.J. Redick could drive opposing defenses crazy in Philadelphia, while Oklahoma City desperately needs a 3-point shooter. LeBron James and Korver have good chemistry, as displayed by James’ 89 assists to Korver last season, Greer adds.

We have more from the Eastern Conference:

The Bulls matched the Kings’ four-year, $78MM offer sheet for Zach LaVine and thus far it’s looking like a wise decision. As Sam Smith of the Bulls’ website notes, LaVine is shooting a career high 46.8% and averaging 26.6 PPG. He’s second in the Eastern Conference in usage rate to Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and his efficiency rating still is top 10 in the conference, Smith adds.
Interior scoring might be the Celtics’ biggest weakness, Marc D’Amico of Celtics.com points out. It entered Monday’s game at Denver ranked last in points in the paint with an average of just 35.3 per game. Coach Brad Stevens admits the lack of inside scoring is a carryover from the last two seasons. “Last year we were not very good either,” he said. “That’s been an issue for us for the last 18 months. Prior to that we were pretty good at it. So we’ve just got to keep hammering on it, see if we can get a little better.”
Knicks coach David Fizdale knows Enes Kanter isn’t happy coming off the bench but Fizdale believes he could be a candidate for Sixth Man of the Year, as he told Adam Zagoria of ZagsBlog.com and other media members. Kanter, a free agent after the season, is playing behind rookie Mitchell Robinson. “I just want him to keep settling into that role right now,” Fizdale said. “Quite honestly, if we keep going this rout, he’s a guy that with the numbers he’s going to get … he’s going to have his hat in that Sixth Man of the Year Award.”

Sixers Notes: Brown, McConnell, Redick, Fultz

November 5th, 2018 at 10:01am CST by Arthur Hill

Philadelphia was projected to be among the best teams in the East, but that status appears far away after Sunday’s 25-point loss in Brooklyn, writes Marcus Hayes of The Philadelphia Inquirer. The Sixers dropped to 0-5 on the road and 6-5 overall, causing coach Brett Brown to call the performance “unacceptable” and say, “We’re not among the Eastern Conference royalty.”

He also suggested that the team’s problems stem from a roster that leans heavily on youth. For all their talent, Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are young players whose NBA experience has been limited because of injuries. Markelle Fultz, the first choice in the 2017 draft, has gone through a similar experience.

“If you were to go back and just study Jason Kidd, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, John Wall — if you took, like, 10 great players, looked at the first few years, and did some division — and say, ‘It looks like it plays out to about this,'” Brown said. “You’re going to see: It’s not soon. … It’s the reality of the ages of the people that we have.”

There’s more this morning out of Philadelphia:

Brown is calling reserve guard T.J. McConnell a “tremendous teammate” for the way he is handling a reduction in playing time, relays Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. McConnell got on the court for about five minutes at the end of last night’s game, following a pair of DNPs. He has dropped behind Fultz in the rotation and is averaging just 13.7 minutes per game, down from 22.4 a year ago. “As a competitor, I know it’s hard,” McConnell said. “But I have to continue being a good teammate and work hard in practice and get better and stay in shape. I’m not going to pout about it. I’m just going to be ready when my name’s called.” McConnell is in his fourth season with the team, but still doesn’t have a guarantee on his $1.6MM contract.
Rich Hofmann of The Athletic examines the Sixers’ problems on offense and finds that the team doesn’t have enough players who can create their own shot and no reliable 3-point shooters outside of J.J. Redick. He notes that Philadelphia hasn’t found replacements for Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Belinelli, who were both lost in free agency.
The Sixers and Celtics are both experiencing the pains of trying to work key players into their rotations, writes Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer. In Philadelphia’s case, it’s Fultz, who still hasn’t solved his shooting woes.

The Cost of The 76ers Trading For Jimmy Butler

November 4th, 2018 at 7:25pm CST by Eric Spyropoulos

Amidst all of the potential trade rumors surrounding Jimmy Butler, the Sixers have been mentioned as a possible suitor as they look to add a third star alongside Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. However, Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer questions the cost of adding a player of Butler’s caliber and skill set to their current roster.

The Latest On Furkan Korkmaz

November 3rd, 2018 at 1:25pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Sixers declined to exercise Furkan Korkmaz‘s third-year option, meaning he will become a free agent at the end of the season. It was previously reported that Korkmaz wouldn’t mind being traded, as he isn’t receiving an opportunity to consistently play. He confirmed that desire to be traded should he continue to sit on the bench.

“I’m still the same way,” Korkmaz said. “That’s why I will try to see what my opportunities are right now. Just like I told you before, I just want to play,” the 21-year-old said (via Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer).

“If I’m not getting minutes here, I just want to look for other options. I don’t know what’s the options right now, just try to be on the court,” Korkmaz continued.

The Sixers drafted Korkmaz with the No. 26 overall pick in the 2016 draft. He’s only played in 19 career NBA games with five of those coming this season.

“I feel like I didn’t really have that opportunity,” Korkmaz said of receiving playing time. “Last year, I was injured for a long time and this year just a couple of games in the garbage time. It wasn’t like good rotation minutes for me. That’s why I feel like I didn’t get that opportunity to show on the court what I got.”

Saric Working Through Slump

November 2nd, 2018 at 10:01pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Sixers coach Brett Brown is allowing forward Dario Saric to work through his shooting slump, Sarah Todd of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Saric has scored in single digits in each of the last three games while shooting 2-for-13 from long range. Brown has no plans to reduce Saric’s workload. “If he came to me and said, ‘I need some time,’ I would listen,” Brown said. “But I don’t feel like I’m force-feeding anything, I do not feel like I’m hurting him. In fact, I feel like I’m helping him.”

Free Agent Stock Watch 2019: Atlantic Division

November 2nd, 2018 at 9:17pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Every week, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents next offseason. We examine if those players’ stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we turn our attention to the Atlantic Division:

Spencer Dinwiddie, Nets, 25, PG (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3.9MM deal in 2016
Dinwiddie has been one of the biggest bargains in the league over the past couple of years but he figures to get a hefty pay raise next summer. Dinwiddie may not be the prototypical point guard but he can carry an offense at times. He’s averaging 14.9 PPG while shooting 48.9% overall and 43.5% from long range. He’s a career 32.5% 3-point shooter, so if he can establish himself as a solid long-range threat, he’ll be even more valuable. He had a 25-point outburst, all after halftime, and made the game-winning shot against his former team, the Pistons, on Wednesday.

Damyean Dotson, Knicks, 24, SG (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $4MM deal in 2017
Dotson has a non-guaranteed salary next season. It’s hard to see the Knicks cutting a productive player on a dirt-cheap deal loose unless they hit the jackpot on a couple of top level free agents and need to open up more cap space. Dotson, a second-round pick last summer, has taken advantage of an injury to rookie Kevin Knox, scoring in double digits in each of the last six games. He’s also been a factor on the boards, averaging nearly six per game. Dotson has earned coach David Fizdale’s trust, though it will be interesting to see how much his minutes drop when Knox returns.

Wilson Chandler, Sixers, 31, SF (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $46.5MM deal in 2015
The Sixers were hoping that Chandler would be a key component of their second unit. They’re still waiting to see if that’s the case, as Chandler has yet to make his Philadelphia debut due to a hamstring injury. Chandler has been durable in recent seasons, appearing in at least 71 games for the Nuggets the past three seasons, but he’s at the point of his career where injuries could be a growing concern.

Marcus Morris, Celtics, 29, PF (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $20MM deal in 2015
Brad Stevens has a lot of quality pieces to fit but Morris doesn’t need to worry about his rotation spot. He’s posting averages of 14.4 PPG and 7.4 RPG in 25.6 MPG off the bench while guarding three different positions. Those stats are even more impressive on a loaded team with a lot of mouths to feed. Morris is due for a huge pay increase after signing a team-friendly deal with the Suns three years ago.

Greg Monroe, Raptors, 28, C (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2.17MM deal in 2018
Monroe is the type of player who’s getting phased out of the league. He’s a low-post scorer with slow feet who has difficulty making defensive switches. He’s made only two brief appearances with the Raptors thus far and will likely remain at the end of the bench unless injuries pile up. Monroe will likely have to settle for a similar contract in free agency next summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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