Suns Rumors

2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Pacific Division

The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.

With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.

In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?

We’ll keep our series going today with the Pacific division…


Golden State Warriors


Phoenix Suns


Los Angeles Clippers


Los Angeles Lakers


Sacramento Kings


Previous voting results:

Central

  • Milwaukee Bucks (52.5 wins): Over (75.5%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (47.5 wins): Over (73.4%)
  • Chicago Bulls (44.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Detroit Pistons (28.5 wins): Over (51.6%)
  • Indiana Pacers (23.5 wins): Under (62.8%)

Southeast

  • Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
  • Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
  • Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
  • Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
  • Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)

Southwest

  • Memphis Grizzlies (49.5 wins): Over (68.7%)
  • Dallas Mavericks (48.5 wins): Over (63.7%)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (44.5 wins): Over (61.2%)
  • Houston Rockets (24.5 wins): Under (61.8%)
  • San Antonio Spurs (23.5 wins): Under (67.5%)

Suns GM: “Brooklyn Wanted To Keep Kevin Durant in Brooklyn”

Suns general manager James Jones doesn’t believe the Nets were ever serious about moving Kevin Durant after his trade request in late June. In an interview with Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic, Jones said Brooklyn set its asking price on Durant so high that no team would be willing to meet it.

Durant reportedly named Phoenix and Miami as his preferred destinations when he first asked to be traded, and there was massive speculation that the Suns were the favorites to land him because they had what the Nets reportedly wanted: young talent and multiple first-round picks. However, Jones doubts that Brooklyn’s front office made a legitimate effort to part with its star.

“Cause Brooklyn wanted to keep Kevin Durant in Brooklyn,” Jones responded when asked why a trade didn’t happen. “And that’s why he’s in Brooklyn and not on some other team, but as far as with us, I get it. It’s always a great topic of discussion, but the one thing people forget is that when you’re talking about trades, or any player acquisition, the team that has the player has to be willing to move the player. And so if they’re not moving the player, which they didn’t, it’s just conversation and it’s great discussion. Great interest for the NBA fan base and the team fan base.”

Jones added that trade talks with the Nets never progressed past the initial stage. He said every team in the league probably made a call to Brooklyn to see what it would take to get Durant, but there was no “in-depth discussion” between the Suns and Nets.

Jones addressed a few other topics in the interview:

Dealing with Mikal Bridges after he was prominently mentioned in Durant trade rumors:

“Mikal’s watching and he’s watching reports and third parties report about him. I get it. Being a player on both sides of it, I truly understand it, but it’s a testament to Mikal’s ability. He’s a really good player. So I would assume any time someone is linked to us, a good player is linked to us, that our good players will be brought up by someone. It’s the nature of it, but I think speaking to Mikal, he understands the business. He understands he’s put himself in a position to be regarded as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Any discussion around great players, I would assume he’d be one of the first guy’s names that’s going to be thrown out there.”

The status of extension talks with Cameron Johnson:

“We’re having discussions. Cam is a big part of what we do. Really excited for the progress he’s shown over the last few years, especially last year. I think he’s primed to take some steps forward. We’re excited about this team, and we’re excited about the guys on this team one through 16. He’s definitely someone we’re going to need to take another step if we want to continue to progress and grow as a group.”

Possible roster moves before the start of training camp:

 “Always in evaluation mode. Always looking. Right now, we’re at 16 guys (14 standard, two two-way). There’s a chance I may add a couple more guys for training camp, but I think we’re close to the end of where we’ll be as far as our training camp roster goes.”

Suns Didn't Have In-Depth Kevin Durant Trade Talks; Examining Dario Saric's EuroBasket Play

  • The Suns didn’t have in-depth discussions with the Nets about a potential Kevin Durant trade, general manager James Jones said, as relayed by Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic (subscription required). Phoenix re-signed starting center Deandre Ayton, while Durant ultimately returned to the Nets last month. The Suns were reportedly one of Durant’s preferred destinations when he requested a trade in June.
  • In a separate article for the Arizona Republic, Rankin explores five takeaways from Dario Saric‘s EuroBasket play. Saric, who was traded to the Suns in 2019, suffered a torn ACL in 2021 and missed all of last season, but he plans to be ready for the start of the 2022/23 campaign.

Pacific Notes: Johnson, Buss, James, Iguodala, Thompson

Suns GM James Jones said there have been talks with Cameron Johnson‘s reps regarding a possible rookie scale extension, Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic tweets.

“We’re having discussions. Cam is a big part of what we do,” Jones said. “Really excited for the progress he’s shown over the last few years, especially last year. He’s primed to take some steps forward.”

We broke down a potential extension for Johnson this week, including what the numbers might look like.

We have more from the Pacific Division:

  • Lakers owner Jeanie Buss told Howard Beck in a Clutch Points podcast that she wants LeBron James to retire as a Laker. “With LeBron we have a line of communication between the two of us, and he knows that he can reach me anytime and vice versa,” Buss said. “I think he feels appreciated. I know I appreciate that he signed an extension to stay here and continue to lead the Laker team. He’s a fantastic leader both on and off the court. I feel like we’re blessed to have him as a Laker. I want to see him retire as a Laker.”
  • A decision on whether Andre Iguodala will retire or return to the Warriors will be made in the coming days, coach Steve Kerr said in an interview with 95.7 The Game (Twitter link). “We’ll touch base in the next couple days. (GM Bob Myers) and I are giving him the space to make whatever decision he wants. We’ll support him either way, but we hope he comes back.” Iguodala said on his podcast hasn’t yet decided what he wants to do, Anthony Slater of The Athletic tweets.
  • Klay Thompson‘s brother Mychel Thompson has been named as video coordinator for the Warriors, according to a team press release. On the coaching staff, Hilton Armstrong and Anthony Vereen have been named player development coaches and Will Sheehey has been named player development analyst.

Mavericks, Knicks Eyeing Bojan Bogdanovic

The Mavericks and Knicks are among the teams with interest in Jazz veteran Bojan Bogdanovic, according to John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM (Twitter link), who states that Utah is looking for draft picks and players on expiring contracts in return.

In addition to Dallas and New York, Gambadoro reports that the Lakers and Suns remain interested in the sharpshooting forward, but he notes that the Jazz might not have as much interest in Phoenix’s first-round picks because they are expected to be one of the top teams once again in 2022/23 after having the NBA’s best record last season (64-18).

The Lakers’ interest in Bogdanovic has been well-documented, and Gambadoro reported a week ago that the Suns inquired about his services as well. Bogdanovic, who is on a $19.55MM expiring contract, is a talented scorer and shooter, averaging 18.3 PPG and 4.1 RPG on .461/.403/.860 shooting over the past four seasons. He’s currently competing in EuroBasket action with the Croatian national team.

If the Jazz are looking for expiring deals, the Mavs don’t have a clean one-for-one fit for salary-matching purposes. Reaching an extension agreement with Maxi Kleber rules him out, and it’s highly unlikely that they’d consider moving Christian Wood after just acquiring him in June.

That only leaves Dwight Powell‘s $11MM expiring deal, plus former first-rounder Josh Green and Frank Ntilikina to match salaries. Green has a team option for $4.77MM in ’23/24.

The Knicks could pull it off a little easier, at least in theory, by trading Derrick Rose‘s $14.5MM pseudo-expiring contract (team option in ’23/24) plus someone like Cam Reddish, who will make $5.95MM in the final season of his rookie deal.

As Gambadoro mentioned, either package would have to include draft picks to land the highly-coveted forward.

The Jazz are in the midst of a full-fledged rebuild after trading their two best players, three-time All-Stars Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, plus veterans Royce O’Neale and Patrick Beverley. They’ve targeted first-round picks and/or young players in all four deals.

Extension Candidate: Cameron Johnson

This is the third installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at a former lottery pick who was an important role player for a 64-win team last season.


Rundown:

The Suns shocked a lot of people by selecting Cameron Johnson with the No. 11 overall pick of the 2019 draft, as many scouts had him rated as a late first-rounder. He was technically drafted by the Timberwolves, who traded him along with Dario Saric to acquire the No. 6 pick, used on Jarrett Culver – an unmitigated disaster of a deal for Minnesota.

Part of the reason Johnson was rated lower than where he was drafted was that he was an older prospect. After receiving a redshirt for his freshman year, he wound up playing a full four years afterward – he spent his first few college seasons with Pittsburgh before transferring to North Carolina.

Johnson quickly quieted those critical of the move with a solid rookie season in 2019/20, appearing in 57 games (22.0 MPG) while averaging 8.8 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .435/.390/.807 shooting (.586 true shooting percentage).

His statistics were quite similar in year two: 9.6 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .420/.346/.847 shooting (.563 true) in 60 games (24.0). He was even better during Phoenix’s lengthy postseason run to the Finals, providing a ton of value with his sharpshooting – in 21 playoff games (21.1 MPG), he averaged 8.2 PPG and 3.1 RPG on .500/.466/.906 shooting (.693 true – a phenomenal mark).

Johnson had a breakout third season in ‘21/22, finishing third in Sixth Man of the Year voting after appearing in 66 games (26.2 MPG) with averages of 12.5 PPG and 4.1 RPG on .460/.425/.860 shooting. Among non-centers who averaged at least 12 PPG in 50 or more games, Johnson was fourth in the league in true shooting percentage (.625), trailing only Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and teammate Mikal Bridges.

Despite a disappointing second-round loss to Dallas, the 26-year-old had another strong individual playoff showing offensively last season, putting up 10.8 PPG and 3.5 RPG on .465/.373/.813 shooting (.619 true) in 13 games (24.6 MPG).

Strengths:

Johnson has proven to be a very efficient role player, and more than worthy of his draft slot. His shooting creates space for teammates, which is always valuable.

While he’s primarily known for his outside shooting, which he’s very good at (39% career from three, including 43.8% from the corners), Johnson is an underrated finisher as well. He shot 71% at the rim last season, which was in the 88th percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com.

Johnson is a very self-aware player, particularly on offense. He doesn’t try to do too much, which is a good thing for a complementary player – his 6.7% turnover percentage was the 11th-best mark in the NBA in ‘21/22, per Basketball-Reference. He isn’t asked to make plays for others very often, but he makes quick decisions if he isn’t open and is a willing passer – his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 2.13-to-1, which is a strong mark for a forward.

Phoenix’s offense, which ranked fifth in the league last season, could really soar if head coach Monty Williams gives Johnson a bigger role – he thrived in 16 games as a starter in place of Jae Crowder, averaging 16.3 PPG and 4.9 RPG on .492/.420/.912 shooting (.659 true).

Improvement areas:

At 6’8″ and 210 pounds, Johnson is slender for a power forward, his primary position. He lacks the strength to defend stronger players down low – Luka Doncic repeatedly exploited that fact during the playoffs.

Most advanced stats rated Johnson as a slightly above average defender, but that doesn’t pass the eye test – in most matchups he’s not a liability, but I think he’s closer to league average than above. He does certain things well – he’s pretty quick on his feet, does a good job of staying vertical when contesting shots, and rarely commits fouls.

However, he’s a below average rebounder, and while opponents shot 1.0% worse than expected with Johnson defending them during the regular season, they shot 3.3% better than expected in the playoffs, per NBA.com. Forcing turnovers isn’t the be-all and end-all when it comes to defense, but Johnson isn’t very good at that either – he recorded 0.9 steals and 0.2 blocks per game in ‘21/22.

Adding strength would help a lot, on both ends of the court. He’s already a very good finisher, but he doesn’t get to the free throw line much – adding some muscle would aid him in that regard. And while he’s a smart decision-maker, his ball-handling is pretty mechanical.

Conclusion:

Johnson is going to land a big payday on his next contract, the only question is when and from whom. As was the case with Deandre Ayton, luxury tax concerns will likely limit Phoenix’s interest in giving Johnson a hefty long-term extension (the Suns matched Ayton’s four-year maximum-salary offer sheet from the Pacers, but they could have given him more money – and an additional year – and chose not to).

If I were representing Johnson, I wouldn’t accept a team-friendly discount in the range of $60MM over four years, because he’d provide value to any NBA team with his highly efficient offensive game and (mostly) adequate defense. Whether he might be open to that is something only he knows.

The Spurs’ Keldon Johnson received a four-year extension with a base value of $74MM, and even though he’s four years older, I think Cameron will end up getting a deal similar to that. Despite the possibility of facing the repeater tax, I would imagine Phoenix would match a contract in that range when Johnson reaches restricted free agency next summer, but I’d be a little surprised if they offer it in an extension before the season starts.

If his agents try to point to his teammate Bridges as a reference point, I think that would be a mistake – Bridges is in a completely different class as a defender and is a better overall player. He received a four-year, $90MM extension from the Suns prior to last season, so I think Johnson will get less than that. Something in the range of $70-80MM sounds about right.

Pacific Notes: Landale, Westbrook, LeBron, Iguodala

Jock Landale concentrated on the basics of the game during his rookie season in San Antonio and he expects to fill the same role now that he’s with the Suns, writes Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. The Australian center focused on rebounding, running the floor and knocking down open shots in the 54 games he played with the Spurs. He got traded twice this offseason — first to Atlanta, then to Phoenix — and has been adjusting to his new situation with one of the NBA’s best teams.

“That was kind of my first wake-up call that this is a business and there isn’t a whole lot of loyalty involved in the sport,” Landale said. “That’s just the way it is and just came to terms to that pretty quickly I suppose, but obviously, I’m super pumped to be with the Suns now because they’re always an organization I looked at and watched play from afar. Just love the way that they operate. Now just being here and actually experiencing the level of care and the level of winning mentality and attitudes around the locker room and the organization as a whole, you realize they’re putting so much into this year as I’m sure they have the last two years.”

Landale said he talked to several members of San Antonio’s front office during the Las Vegas Summer League, and they all spoke positively about Phoenix coach Monty Williams. Landale also got a glowing recommendation on the Suns from fellow Australian Aron Baynes, who was in Las Vegas in hopes of an NBA comeback.

“Baynes, he spoke really highly of the guys, the organization, Monty, all of that,” Landale said. “I think it’s getting to that point that Monty’s reputation kind of speaks for itself. Everybody has great things to say about him and that’s kind of the testament to the body of work he’s put in with his players as a coach. Now being on such a highly regarded winning team, nothing I say will be out of the ordinary because his reputation speaks for itself. He’s a fantastic man and coach.”

There’s more from the Pacific Division:

  • The Lakers will have to give up a first-round pick to unload Russell Westbrook and two first-rounders if they’re hoping to land more than one rotation player, sources tell Dan Woike of The Los Angeles Times. Depending on the deal, that price could increase to include pick swaps or it could decrease if L.A. is willing to take on unwanted contracts.
  • Lakers star LeBron James is a bargain even at his new two-year, $97.1MM extension, according to Sopan Deb of The New York Times. In addition to his on-court value, James brings in a lot of revenue from the attention he attracts to the franchise.
  • Warriors veteran Andre Iguodala defended teammate Jonathan Kuminga after ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith raised questions about the young forward’s attitude, relays Nathan Dougherty of Heavy“My young fella, I’m on his head,” Iguodala said Friday on his “Point Forward” podcast. “He took some licks from Stephen A. I don’t know how warranted they were because from what I heard he been doing what he supposed to do this summer.”

Jazz Continue To Engage In Trade Discussions

The Jazz have traded three starters from last year’s roster so far this offseason, but even after moving Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, and Royce O’Neale for a boatload of draft picks, the team isn’t necessarily done with its offseason work.

According to Tony Jones of The Athletic, the Jazz continue to engage in trade conversations about a number of their remaining veterans, including Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson.

In the latest episode of his Please Don’t Aggregate This podcast, Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report confirms that Bogdanovic, Conley, and Clarkson are “definitely on the trade block.” Fischer says he has also gotten the impression that the Jazz would “love to move off” Rudy Gay and has heard Leandro Bolmaro‘s name come up in some trade rumors.

Even beyond those five players, Utah would likely be willing to listen to inquiries on many others members of their roster, including Malik Beasley, according to Fischer. Jarred Vanderbilt is another player the club could theoretically move, though Fischer says a team might have to “knock Utah’s socks off” to acquire the young forward.

Based on the deals they’ve made so far this summer, it’s safe to assume the Jazz would be prioritizing draft assets as they continue to gauge the trade market.

Among Utah’s veterans, Bogdanovic might be the one with the most trade value. He’s on a reasonable $19.55MM expiring contract and is a talented frontcourt scorer, having averaged 18.4 PPG over the last three seasons (204 games) with the Jazz. The 33-year-old forward is also a major threat from beyond the arc — he has made at least 38.7% of his three-point tries in each of the last five seasons.

John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 reported on Thursday that the Suns had inquired on Bogdanovic, but Phoenix is hardly the only team with interest. Gambadoro tweeted late last night that several teams, including the Lakers, are eyeing Bogdanovic.

Any trade sending Bogdanovic to the Lakers would have to involve Russell Westbrook for salary-matching purposes, and would require at least one or two other players to go to Los Angeles — the Jazz would likely try to pry away the Lakers’ 2027 and 2029 first-round picks in that scenario, though L.A. has been reluctant to attach more than one first-rounder to Westbrook.

Bogdanovic’s cap hit of nearly $20MM will make it tricky for certain teams to seriously pursue him. For instance, while he might be a good fit in Boston following Danilo Gallinari‘s injury, the Celtics probably can’t make a viable offer for him that doesn’t include at least one key rotation player whose value matches or exceeds Bogdanovic’s.

Pacific Notes: Beverley, Westbrook, Saric, Kings

Since the Lakers traded for veteran point guard Patrick Beverley, the future of 2021/22 starter Russell Westbrook has seemed murky. Mirjam Swanson of the Orange County Register wonders if the duo can actually share the floor together, or at the very least both stick around on the team this season.

Swanson reads tea leaves in recent public statements from head coach Darvin Ham and team owner Jeanie Buss that seem to suggest they appreciate Westbrook and his contributions to the club last year. Swanson writes that, because Beverley can function so well off the ball as a catch-and-shoot long range sniper, and can defend at least both guard positions, he could theoretically play alongside Westbrook, who tends to be significantly more ball-dominant.

There’s more out of the Pacific Division:

  • With Donovan Mitchell headed to the Cavaliers, Dan Woike of the Los Angeles Times opines that the Lakers could look to move Westbrook (and draft compensation) to the Jazz, who have already offloaded four of their best veteran players in separate deals this summer, including both their All-Stars. Woike writes that combo forward Bojan Bogdanovic should be L.A.’s top priority, and also floats the possibility of adding some combination of Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley and Rudy Gay into such a deal.
  • Suns reserve big man Dario Saric missed all of the 2021/22 season while he recovered from a ruptured ACL in his right knee suffered in the first game of the 2021 Finals. The 6’10” big man played well during the Croatian national team’s FIBA EuroBasket 2025 pre-qualifiers in August, writes Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic.
  • Three reserve point guards will be duking it out during the Kings‘ training camp later this month. James Ham of Kings Beat assesses each player in terms of their relative strengths and weaknesses on the current Sacramento roster. As a former lottery pick, defensive-oriented second-year guard Davion Mitchell seems guaranteed to get some run behind pricey starter De’Aaron Fox. Ham predicts that Quinn Cook could have an edge over Matthew Dellavedova as the team’s third point guard option.