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Extension Candidate: Cameron Johnson

September 8th, 2022 at 7:46am CST by Rory Maher

This is the third installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at a former lottery pick who was an important role player for a 64-win team last season.

Rundown:

The Suns shocked a lot of people by selecting Cameron Johnson with the No. 11 overall pick of the 2019 draft, as many scouts had him rated as a late first-rounder. He was technically drafted by the Timberwolves, who traded him along with Dario Saric to acquire the No. 6 pick, used on Jarrett Culver – an unmitigated disaster of a deal for Minnesota.

Part of the reason Johnson was rated lower than where he was drafted was that he was an older prospect. After receiving a redshirt for his freshman year, he wound up playing a full four years afterward – he spent his first few college seasons with Pittsburgh before transferring to North Carolina.

Johnson quickly quieted those critical of the move with a solid rookie season in 2019/20, appearing in 57 games (22.0 MPG) while averaging 8.8 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .435/.390/.807 shooting (.586 true shooting percentage).

His statistics were quite similar in year two: 9.6 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .420/.346/.847 shooting (.563 true) in 60 games (24.0). He was even better during Phoenix’s lengthy postseason run to the Finals, providing a ton of value with his sharpshooting – in 21 playoff games (21.1 MPG), he averaged 8.2 PPG and 3.1 RPG on .500/.466/.906 shooting (.693 true – a phenomenal mark).

Johnson had a breakout third season in ‘21/22, finishing third in Sixth Man of the Year voting after appearing in 66 games (26.2 MPG) with averages of 12.5 PPG and 4.1 RPG on .460/.425/.860 shooting. Among non-centers who averaged at least 12 PPG in 50 or more games, Johnson was fourth in the league in true shooting percentage (.625), trailing only Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and teammate Mikal Bridges.

Despite a disappointing second-round loss to Dallas, the 26-year-old had another strong individual playoff showing offensively last season, putting up 10.8 PPG and 3.5 RPG on .465/.373/.813 shooting (.619 true) in 13 games (24.6 MPG).

Strengths:

Johnson has proven to be a very efficient role player, and more than worthy of his draft slot. His shooting creates space for teammates, which is always valuable.

While he’s primarily known for his outside shooting, which he’s very good at (39% career from three, including 43.8% from the corners), Johnson is an underrated finisher as well. He shot 71% at the rim last season, which was in the 88th percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com.

Johnson is a very self-aware player, particularly on offense. He doesn’t try to do too much, which is a good thing for a complementary player – his 6.7% turnover percentage was the 11th-best mark in the NBA in ‘21/22, per Basketball-Reference. He isn’t asked to make plays for others very often, but he makes quick decisions if he isn’t open and is a willing passer – his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 2.13-to-1, which is a strong mark for a forward.

Phoenix’s offense, which ranked fifth in the league last season, could really soar if head coach Monty Williams gives Johnson a bigger role – he thrived in 16 games as a starter in place of Jae Crowder, averaging 16.3 PPG and 4.9 RPG on .492/.420/.912 shooting (.659 true).

Improvement areas:

At 6’8″ and 210 pounds, Johnson is slender for a power forward, his primary position. He lacks the strength to defend stronger players down low – Luka Doncic repeatedly exploited that fact during the playoffs.

Most advanced stats rated Johnson as a slightly above average defender, but that doesn’t pass the eye test – in most matchups he’s not a liability, but I think he’s closer to league average than above. He does certain things well – he’s pretty quick on his feet, does a good job of staying vertical when contesting shots, and rarely commits fouls.

However, he’s a below average rebounder, and while opponents shot 1.0% worse than expected with Johnson defending them during the regular season, they shot 3.3% better than expected in the playoffs, per NBA.com. Forcing turnovers isn’t the be-all and end-all when it comes to defense, but Johnson isn’t very good at that either – he recorded 0.9 steals and 0.2 blocks per game in ‘21/22.

Adding strength would help a lot, on both ends of the court. He’s already a very good finisher, but he doesn’t get to the free throw line much – adding some muscle would aid him in that regard. And while he’s a smart decision-maker, his ball-handling is pretty mechanical.

Conclusion:

Johnson is going to land a big payday on his next contract, the only question is when and from whom. As was the case with Deandre Ayton, luxury tax concerns will likely limit Phoenix’s interest in giving Johnson a hefty long-term extension (the Suns matched Ayton’s four-year maximum-salary offer sheet from the Pacers, but they could have given him more money – and an additional year – and chose not to).

If I were representing Johnson, I wouldn’t accept a team-friendly discount in the range of $60MM over four years, because he’d provide value to any NBA team with his highly efficient offensive game and (mostly) adequate defense. Whether he might be open to that is something only he knows.

The Spurs’ Keldon Johnson received a four-year extension with a base value of $74MM, and even though he’s four years older, I think Cameron will end up getting a deal similar to that. Despite the possibility of facing the repeater tax, I would imagine Phoenix would match a contract in that range when Johnson reaches restricted free agency next summer, but I’d be a little surprised if they offer it in an extension before the season starts.

If his agents try to point to his teammate Bridges as a reference point, I think that would be a mistake – Bridges is in a completely different class as a defender and is a better overall player. He received a four-year, $90MM extension from the Suns prior to last season, so I think Johnson will get less than that. Something in the range of $70-80MM sounds about right.

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Pacific Notes: Landale, Westbrook, LeBron, Iguodala

September 4th, 2022 at 11:59am CST by Arthur Hill

Jock Landale concentrated on the basics of the game during his rookie season in San Antonio and he expects to fill the same role now that he’s with the Suns, writes Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. The Australian center focused on rebounding, running the floor and knocking down open shots in the 54 games he played with the Spurs. He got traded twice this offseason — first to Atlanta, then to Phoenix — and has been adjusting to his new situation with one of the NBA’s best teams.

“That was kind of my first wake-up call that this is a business and there isn’t a whole lot of loyalty involved in the sport,” Landale said. “That’s just the way it is and just came to terms to that pretty quickly I suppose, but obviously, I’m super pumped to be with the Suns now because they’re always an organization I looked at and watched play from afar. Just love the way that they operate. Now just being here and actually experiencing the level of care and the level of winning mentality and attitudes around the locker room and the organization as a whole, you realize they’re putting so much into this year as I’m sure they have the last two years.”

Landale said he talked to several members of San Antonio’s front office during the Las Vegas Summer League, and they all spoke positively about Phoenix coach Monty Williams. Landale also got a glowing recommendation on the Suns from fellow Australian Aron Baynes, who was in Las Vegas in hopes of an NBA comeback.

“Baynes, he spoke really highly of the guys, the organization, Monty, all of that,” Landale said. “I think it’s getting to that point that Monty’s reputation kind of speaks for itself. Everybody has great things to say about him and that’s kind of the testament to the body of work he’s put in with his players as a coach. Now being on such a highly regarded winning team, nothing I say will be out of the ordinary because his reputation speaks for itself. He’s a fantastic man and coach.”

There’s more from the Pacific Division:

  • The Lakers will have to give up a first-round pick to unload Russell Westbrook and two first-rounders if they’re hoping to land more than one rotation player, sources tell Dan Woike of The Los Angeles Times. Depending on the deal, that price could increase to include pick swaps or it could decrease if L.A. is willing to take on unwanted contracts.
  • Lakers star LeBron James is a bargain even at his new two-year, $97.1MM extension, according to Sopan Deb of The New York Times. In addition to his on-court value, James brings in a lot of revenue from the attention he attracts to the franchise.
  • Warriors veteran Andre Iguodala defended teammate Jonathan Kuminga after ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith raised questions about the young forward’s attitude, relays Nathan Dougherty of Heavy. “My young fella, I’m on his head,” Iguodala said Friday on his “Point Forward” podcast. “He took some licks from Stephen A. I don’t know how warranted they were because from what I heard he been doing what he supposed to do this summer.”
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Jazz Continue To Engage In Trade Discussions

September 2nd, 2022 at 1:38pm CST by Luke Adams

The Jazz have traded three starters from last year’s roster so far this offseason, but even after moving Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, and Royce O’Neale for a boatload of draft picks, the team isn’t necessarily done with its offseason work.

According to Tony Jones of The Athletic, the Jazz continue to engage in trade conversations about a number of their remaining veterans, including Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson.

In the latest episode of his Please Don’t Aggregate This podcast, Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report confirms that Bogdanovic, Conley, and Clarkson are “definitely on the trade block.” Fischer says he has also gotten the impression that the Jazz would “love to move off” Rudy Gay and has heard Leandro Bolmaro‘s name come up in some trade rumors.

Even beyond those five players, Utah would likely be willing to listen to inquiries on many others members of their roster, including Malik Beasley, according to Fischer. Jarred Vanderbilt is another player the club could theoretically move, though Fischer says a team might have to “knock Utah’s socks off” to acquire the young forward.

Based on the deals they’ve made so far this summer, it’s safe to assume the Jazz would be prioritizing draft assets as they continue to gauge the trade market.

Among Utah’s veterans, Bogdanovic might be the one with the most trade value. He’s on a reasonable $19.55MM expiring contract and is a talented frontcourt scorer, having averaged 18.4 PPG over the last three seasons (204 games) with the Jazz. The 33-year-old forward is also a major threat from beyond the arc — he has made at least 38.7% of his three-point tries in each of the last five seasons.

John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 reported on Thursday that the Suns had inquired on Bogdanovic, but Phoenix is hardly the only team with interest. Gambadoro tweeted late last night that several teams, including the Lakers, are eyeing Bogdanovic.

Any trade sending Bogdanovic to the Lakers would have to involve Russell Westbrook for salary-matching purposes, and would require at least one or two other players to go to Los Angeles — the Jazz would likely try to pry away the Lakers’ 2027 and 2029 first-round picks in that scenario, though L.A. has been reluctant to attach more than one first-rounder to Westbrook.

Bogdanovic’s cap hit of nearly $20MM will make it tricky for certain teams to seriously pursue him. For instance, while he might be a good fit in Boston following Danilo Gallinari‘s injury, the Celtics probably can’t make a viable offer for him that doesn’t include at least one key rotation player whose value matches or exceeds Bogdanovic’s.

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Pacific Notes: Beverley, Westbrook, Saric, Kings

September 1st, 2022 at 11:20pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Since the Lakers traded for veteran point guard Patrick Beverley, the future of 2021/22 starter Russell Westbrook has seemed murky. Mirjam Swanson of the Orange County Register wonders if the duo can actually share the floor together, or at the very least both stick around on the team this season.

Swanson reads tea leaves in recent public statements from head coach Darvin Ham and team owner Jeanie Buss that seem to suggest they appreciate Westbrook and his contributions to the club last year. Swanson writes that, because Beverley can function so well off the ball as a catch-and-shoot long range sniper, and can defend at least both guard positions, he could theoretically play alongside Westbrook, who tends to be significantly more ball-dominant.

There’s more out of the Pacific Division:

  • With Donovan Mitchell headed to the Cavaliers, Dan Woike of the Los Angeles Times opines that the Lakers could look to move Westbrook (and draft compensation) to the Jazz, who have already offloaded four of their best veteran players in separate deals this summer, including both their All-Stars. Woike writes that combo forward Bojan Bogdanovic should be L.A.’s top priority, and also floats the possibility of adding some combination of Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley and Rudy Gay into such a deal.
  • Suns reserve big man Dario Saric missed all of the 2021/22 season while he recovered from a ruptured ACL in his right knee suffered in the first game of the 2021 Finals. The 6’10” big man played well during the Croatian national team’s FIBA EuroBasket 2025 pre-qualifiers in August, writes Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic.
  • Three reserve point guards will be duking it out during the Kings‘ training camp later this month. James Ham of Kings Beat assesses each player in terms of their relative strengths and weaknesses on the current Sacramento roster. As a former lottery pick, defensive-oriented second-year guard Davion Mitchell seems guaranteed to get some run behind pricey starter De’Aaron Fox. Ham predicts that Quinn Cook could have an edge over Matthew Dellavedova as the team’s third point guard option.
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Suns Express Interest In Bojan Bogdanovic

September 1st, 2022 at 9:24pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

With a full-out fire sale seemingly transpiring in Utah, it makes sense that the Jazz will be listening to offers for the rest of its veterans. The Jazz have thus far traded All-Stars Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, wing Royce O’Neale, and point guard Patrick Beverley, all in separate deals, for younger players and future draft equity.

John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM reports that the Suns inquired about the availability of forward Bojan Bogdanovic in the wake of today’s deal that will send Mitchell to the Cavaliers. To match the 33-year-old veteran’s expiring $19.3MM salary, Phoenix would need to include multiple players in a trade, as well as future draft equity, Gambadoro speculates.

Last season, the 6’7″ veteran averaged 18.1 PPG on 45.5% shooting from the floor, along with 4.3 RPG and 1.7 APG across 69 games for the Jazz while starting as the team’s power forward. Bogdanovic could help spread the floor for the Suns, and is an efficient shooter at the charity stripe. He connected on 38.7% of his 6.8 triples per game for Utah, as well as 85.8% of his free throws.

Though the Suns had a league-best 64 wins, they flamed out in the playoffs, falling in a seven-game Western Conference semifinal matchup against the Mavericks. The Suns have made few moves this offseason thus far. When the Pacers tendered a four-year, maximum offer to restricted free agent starting Phoenix center Deandre Ayton, the Suns opted to match, making the big man ineligible to be traded until January.

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Pre-Camp Roster Snapshot: Pacific Division

August 31st, 2022 at 9:41am CST by Luke Adams

Hoops Rumors is in the process of taking a closer look at each NBA team’s current roster situation, evaluating which clubs still have some moves to make and which ones seem most prepared for training camp to begin.

This series is meant to provide a snapshot of each team’s roster at this time, so these articles won’t be updated in the coming weeks as more signings, trades, and cuts are made. You can follow our roster counts page to keep tabs on teams’ open spots as opening night nears.

We’re continuing our pre-camp Roster Snapshot series today with the Pacific Division. Let’s dive in…

Golden State Warriors

Andre Iguodala‘s decision on whether to play for another season or retire looks like the only major domino left to fall for the Warriors this offseason. If Iguodala returns, he’ll fill Golden State’s 14th roster spot. If not, the team might be in the market for another veteran free agent addition.

Even if Iguodala re-signs, there would be one open spot on the Warriors’ 15-man roster. The club could keep that spot open to start the season in order to maintain flexibility and to avoid pushing its astronomical tax bill even higher, but if there’s a player who shows he deserves a place on the roster – like Gary Payton II did a year ago – Golden State would likely be willing to sacrifice that flexibility and to pay the associated costs to keep him.

Los Angeles Clippers

Like the Warriors, the Clippers are far beyond the luxury tax line and may not feel compelled to fill their 15th roster spot at the start of the season. But Los Angeles does still have a two-way slot available. Brown, Moon, and other training camp invitees could find themselves in vying for that second two-way contract.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers’ roster remains very much in flux, with Westbrook a prime candidate to be traded before opening night. Most permutations of a Westbrook deal would require L.A. to take back two or three players, and the team currently has the roster flexibility to do so.

If the Lakers can’t find a trade they like involving Westbrook, they could sign another free agent or two to fill out their 15-man regular season roster.

Phoenix Suns

One of several taxpaying teams in the division, the Suns are another candidate to open the season with 14 players on standard contracts instead of 15. For now, Landale holds the 14th roster spot, but his partial guarantee is only worth about $46K, so he probably doesn’t have a firm grip on that spot. The Suns reportedly remain in the market for another frontcourt piece and if they find one they like, it’s unclear whether Landale will stick with the team.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings appear set to hold a training camp competition for the three open spots on their projected regular season roster, with Dellavedova, Merrill, Moneke, Bazemore, Cook, and Okpala all potentially in the mix. While there’s only room for three of them for now, Sacramento could keep a fourth by trading or releasing one of their 12 players with guaranteed salaries.

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Heat Weren’t Aggressive In Pursuit Of Kevin Durant

August 28th, 2022 at 11:56am CST by Arthur Hill

Kevin Durant reportedly listed Miami as one of his preferred destinations when he demanded a trade from the Nets, but the Heat didn’t make a strong effort to acquire him, Shams Charania of The Athletic said in an appearance on the Stugotz podcast.

Heat officials believed it would cost too much of their roster to trade for Durant, added Charania, who said that the last contact between the two teams regarding Durant occurred either before or during Summer League.

Charania noted that Miami reached Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last season and didn’t see a need for major changes. He pointed to hypothetical trades involving Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro or Adebayo, Max Strus and another player and asked whether that really gets Miami any closer to winning a title.

On top of that, any consideration of trading Adebayo would have been limited by the designated rookie extension rule, which would have prevented the Nets from having both him and Ben Simmons on their roster at the same time. A third team would have been needed to complete a deal, which made the prospects of a trade even less realistic.

Durant also was interested in joining the Suns, but Charania hears that Brooklyn didn’t want Deandre Ayton in return. Ayton became ineligible for a sign-and-trade this summer after Phoenix matched his offer sheet from the Pacers.

Charania said there were opportunities to deal Durant, but no one was willing to meet the Nets’ asking price. The Celtics wouldn’t part with Marcus Smart or Robert Williams along with Jaylen Brown, while the Raptors weren’t willing to include Scottie Barnes in trade talks. Charania said Brooklyn could have made a deal that was heavy on draft compensation with the Suns, Grizzlies or Timberwolves before they sent their assets to Utah for Rudy Gobert, but the Nets were only interested in trades that would keep them competitive.

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Western Notes: Suns, Durant, Green, Tillie, Holmgren, Mitchell

August 27th, 2022 at 3:06pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Suns coach Monty Williams never discussed the Kevin Durant trade rumors with his players, he said during an appearance on SiriusXM NBA Radio (hat tip to Dana Scott of the Arizona Republic).

“When I first heard about the Kevin Durant stuff, I was kind of blown away by it just because, you know, we’ve been so blessed here to have guys want to come,” Williams said. “At the same time, ‘At the expense of what?’ was my thinking. And I like our team. I love our guys. But I wasn’t going to have conversations that didn’t need to be had.”

Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Deandre Ayton and Jae Crowder were among the names speculated as part of the talks between Brooklyn and Phoenix.

“I think our guys are mature enough to understand that part of our business,” Williams said. “I didn’t want to have conversations about stuff that didn’t need to be brought up.”

We have more from the Western Conference:

  • Danny Green‘s contract may be the reason he makes the Grizzlies’ roster, Damichael Cole of the Memphis Commercial Appeal writes. Green is on the roster bubble as he recovers from a torn ACL that will likely keep him out of action until at least the second half of the season. However, his expiring $10MM contract is one of the team’s best trade chips. Forward Killian Tillie may be the odd man out if Green isn’t traded, though he could still find his way onto the roster due to his shooting ability and position versatility.
  • Thunder big man Chet Holmgren, declared out for the season due to a foot injury suffered during a pro-am event, is hardly the first high-profile rookie in that predicament, Drew Maresca of Basketball News notes. Joel Embiid, Blake Griffin, Nerlens Noel, Michael Porter Jr. and Ben Simmons were some of the other highly-touted prospects who had to sit out a full year due to injuries.
  • The Jazz are reportedly trying to get the best offer for Donovan Mitchell prior to training camp and Sarah Todd of the Deseret News believes that’s a wise approach. She notes that Utah isn’t out to win this coming season, so there’s no reason to keep the All-Star on the roster, while the team that acquires him will want him to build chemistry with his new teammates. It would avoid the awkwardness of having Mitchell in their camp while trade rumors swirl.
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Bridges, Johnson And Ayton All Have Big Opportunity Next Season

August 24th, 2022 at 5:46pm CST by Rory Maher
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