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2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

June 17th, 2022 at 3:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Although the Suns finished the 2019/20 season by winning eight straight games, it was still their sixth straight season under .500, so when they followed it up by going 51-21 and making the NBA Finals in ’20/21, it came as a major surprise.

That ’20/21 performance put the Suns firmly in the conversation as contenders heading into ’21/22, meaning they didn’t catch anyone off guard with another hot start last fall. But not many league observers expected that hot streak to essentially last the entire regular season, as the club took yet another significant step forward by winning an NBA-high 64 games.

Phoenix’s rise came to an abrupt halt in the second round of the postseason, when the team failed to slow down Luka Doncic and fell to the underdog Mavericks in seven games. It cast a shadow over what was otherwise a terrific year and raises questions about where the club goes from here.

Are more roster upgrades needed to seriously contend for a title, or was this a championship-caliber team that just had a bad series? And how will Chris Paul‘s age, Deandre Ayton‘s free agency, and the ongoing investigation into team owner Robert Sarver‘s alleged workplace misconduct factor into the Suns’ outlook going forward?

The Suns’ Offseason Plan:

Let’s start with Ayton, the Suns’ only core player who isn’t already under contract for the 2022/23 season. He’ll be eligible for restricted free agency this offseason after failing to agree to an extension with the team last fall. Even though Phoenix was unwilling to give Ayton a five-year, maximum-salary contract a year ago, there had long been an expectation that the two sides would have an easier time reaching an agreement this summer — if not a max deal, then something very close to it.

However, since the night the Suns were eliminated from the playoffs – in a Game 7 in which Ayton was benched after playing just 17 minutes – one report after another has suggested that the big man’s return to Phoenix won’t be a foregone conclusion after all. Multiple reporters have identified the former No. 1 overall pick as potentially the biggest name to change teams this summer.

Ayton’s free agency will be fascinating for a few reasons. For one, despite the fact that the Suns apparently aren’t enthusiastic about paying Ayton $30MM+ per year on his next deal, all of those aforementioned reports have been adamant that the team won’t just let him walk away for nothing and will look to negotiate a sign-and-trade deal.

Given that so few teams have the ability to create enough cap space to sign Ayton outright, perhaps that’s how his free agency will play out. But it would be fascinating to see how Phoenix would respond if a rival suitor signs Ayton to a four-year max offer sheet. Would the Suns match it and plan on potentially trading Ayton down the road, despite the fact that his salary would put them well over the luxury tax line for the time being? The potential for a game of free agency “chicken” here is intriguing.

If the Suns do engage in sign-and-trade talks for Ayton, those negotiations will be complicated by the fact that base year compensation rules will apply to his new contract. On a maximum-salary deal, Ayton’s outgoing salary from Phoenix’s perspective would be just $15.25MM, while his incoming salary for a new team would be $30.5MM. Bridging that gap and making sure both teams are adhering to the NBA’s salary-matching rules will be tricky if Ayton’s new team is over the cap.

It’s virtually unprecedented for a free agent of Ayton’s caliber to accept his qualifying offer rather than negotiating a longer-term contract, but no player coming off a rookie scale contract has ever been eligible for a qualifying offer as lucrative as Ayton’s ($16.4MM), so it’s worth mentioning as a fallback option. If he were to accept that one-year QO, Ayton would be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2023. It’s a long shot, but if the Suns play hardball with possible sign-and-trade partners and Ayton decides he doesn’t want to stay in Phoenix, it’s an option.

Based on the reporting to date, it sounds like the Suns’ preferred outcome would be to replace Ayton with a starting-caliber player earning in the $15-20MM range and to not spend maximum-salary money on their starting center. We’ll see if the right opportunity arises – for both Ayton and the Suns – to make that happen.

While resolving Ayton’s contract situation will be their top priority, the Suns will have to address their backup slots at point guard and center, where Aaron Holiday, Elfrid Payton, JaVale McGee, and Bismack Biyombo are all eligible for free agency. How Phoenix approaches those spots will depend in part on whether Ayton returns — or possibly on how much salary the team takes back in an Ayton sign-and-trade.

Sarver doesn’t have a reputation as an owner who spends big on player salaries and likely won’t be particularly enthusiastic about going deep into tax territory, so if Phoenix projects to be a taxpayer, I’d count on the team filling out its depth chart at point guard and center primarily with minimum-salary signings. If Ayton doesn’t return, the club would have more flexibility below the luxury tax line, opening the door to use its mid-level exception and perhaps to re-sign players like Holiday and McGee, who should command more than the minimum.

Devin Booker, Cameron Johnson, and Dario Saric are among the other Suns worth keeping an eye this offseason.

Booker qualified for a super-max contract extension when he made an All-NBA team this spring. If the Suns put a super-max offer on the table, it would add four more years to the two remaining on his current deal, starting at 35% of the 2024/25 cap. Even if we project a relatively conservative $130MM cap for ’24/25, that super-max contract would be worth in excess of $50MM per year.

There’s no guarantee the Suns move forward on that extension immediately, but it would cover Booker’s prime years (starting with his age-28 season) and Paul’s contract would be coming off the books by that point, so it would make sense for the two sides to get it done this summer.

Johnson will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and has probably earned a deal at least in the range of what fellow sharpshooter Kevin Huerter got from Atlanta a year ago (four years, $65MM). The Suns don’t necessarily have to push to finalize an agreement with Johnson before the 2022/23 season, since he’d be a restricted free agent next summer. But if they can get a relatively team-friendly price, like they did with Mikal Bridges, it’s worth pursuing.

Saric, meanwhile, will be returning from a torn ACL as he enters the final year of his contract. His $9.2MM expiring deal makes him a logical trade candidate, either in a salary-dump deal or in a package for a rotation player. However, at least one recent report suggested Phoenix is hopeful Saric can return to form as a frontcourt piece who can stretch the floor, and may not be looking to move him after all.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

  • None

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

Two-Way Free Agents

Draft Picks

  • None

Extension-Eligible Players

Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.

  • Devin Booker (veteran)
  • Jae Crowder (veteran)
  • Cameron Johnson (rookie scale)
  • Dario Saric (veteran)

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

With $128MM in guaranteed money committed to nine players, the Suns will, at the very least, operate over the projected $122MM cap in 2022/23.

The Ayton situation will dictate whether they end up over the projected tax line ($149MM) as well, but that looks like a good bet at this point — even if Ayton doesn’t return, Phoenix could end up taking on upwards of $20MM in salary in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 1

Footnotes

  1. This is a projected value. The Suns could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.

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Fischer’s Latest: Ayton, Nurkic, Anunoby, Dort, Turner, Sharpe

June 16th, 2022 at 1:14pm CST by Rory Maher

The Trail Blazers are no longer viewed as a suitor for restricted free agent Deandre Ayton, sources tell Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report. According to Fischer, Portland plans to re-sign starting center Jusuf Nurkic, who is an unrestricted free agent, and hopes to acquire Raptors forward OG Anunoby in exchange for a package headlined by the No. 7 overall pick of the 2022 draft.

However, Anunoby might not be the only target for the Blazers. It’s been rumored that the Thunder are trying to move up in the lottery, and Fischer reports that “there has been increasing talk” about Portland sending the No. 7 pick to OKC in exchange for No. 12 and a “package that could include” Luguentz Dort.

The three most realistic landing spots for Ayton, aside from re-signing with the Suns, appear to be the Hawks, Pistons and Raptors, says Fischer, adding that all three clubs have interesting pieces to dangle in a possible sign-and-trade for the center.

Echoing a report from Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report, Fischer states that the Pacers could also be a possibility for Ayton in a sign-and-trade deal involving Myles Turner. The two players are both represented by agent Bill Duffy, Fischer notes (hat tip to RealGM).

According to Fischer, Shaedon Sharpe may be a candidate to fall in the lottery after a series of underwhelming workouts ahead of the draft. Fischer says Sharpe’s range might begin at No. 8, but he could also be a target of teams who try to acquire the No. 7 pick from Portland. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony reported yesterday that the Thunder are high on Sharpe.

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Suns To Hire Patrick Mutombo As Assistant Coach

June 14th, 2022 at 12:53pm CST by Rory Maher

The Suns plan to hire Patrick Mutombo as an assistant coach, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (via Twitter). Mutombo has been the head coach of the Raptors 905, Toronto’s G League affiliate, for the past two seasons.

A former Division II player for Metro State, Mutombo made several international stops in his playing career prior to becoming a coach. His first NBA job came in 2011/12, when he was named player development coordinator for Denver.

Mutombo was promoted to an assistant coach the following season and stayed with the Nuggets until 2015, when he had a one-season stint with the Austin Spurs, San Antonio’s G League affiliate. After Austin, he was hired by the Raptors as an assistant and stayed in that role from 2016-20.

In 2020, the 42-year-old was promoted to head coach of the Raptors 905. In each of Mutombo’s two seasons at the helm, the team finished with the best regular season record in the G League (12-3 in ’20/21 and 24-8 in ’21/22).

The Suns held the best regular season record in the NBA in 2021/22 at 64-18 and head coach Monty Williams won Coach of the Year after finishing second in ’20/21. Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports (Twitter link) believes that Mutombo could become an NBA head coach in the future.

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FA/Trade Rumors: Ayton, Centers, Turner, Beal, Saric, Lakers

June 13th, 2022 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Echoing comments made last week by Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report, Marc Stein writes in his latest Substack article that Suns center Deandre Ayton – a restricted free agent this summer – may be the biggest name to change teams in the coming weeks.

Phoenix is “increasingly expected” to explore sign-and-trade scenarios involving Ayton, according to Stein, who says there’s plenty of skepticism around the NBA about the team’s desire to make a significant financial commitment to the young center.

Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report conveys a similar sentiment in his latest round-up of NBA rumors, suggesting there’s “considerable skepticism” that the Suns will re-sign Ayton. The Pistons, Spurs, Trail Blazers, Hawks, and Raptors have all been mentioned as possible suitors for the former No. 1 overall pick, Stein notes.

Here are a few more updates from Stein and Pincus on some of this year’s top free agents and trade candidates:

  • According to Pincus, some sources believe that the Spurs (Jakob Poeltl), Bulls (Nikola Vucevic), Hawks (Clint Capela/John Collins), and Pacers (Myles Turner) are among the teams that could be willing to move their current centers in a package for one of the offseason’s top available big men (Ayton, Rudy Gobert, etc.). Grizzlies center Steven Adams also may be a summer trade candidate, though he’s well-liked in the locker room, says Pincus.
  • While both Pincus and Stein have talked to sources who believe the Pacers are likely to keep Myles Turner, Stein notes that the situation could change if the big man wants to play out his expiring contract rather than agreeing to an extension, since Indiana may not want to risk losing him for nothing next year.
  • According to Stein, one or two teams hopeful of landing Bradley Beal believe the All-Star guard wants to be the Dirk Nowitzki of D.C., sticking with the Wizards for his entire career.
  • While Dario Saric‘s $9.24MM expiring contract makes him an obvious trade candidate, Pincus writes that the Suns are hopeful the forward can return to form after missing last season due to an ACL tear, and may not be looking to move him.
  • If the Lakers have any hope of trading Russell Westbrook without including a first-round pick, they’ll likely have to take on at least one or two players earning $15-25MM annually on multiyear deals, Pincus writes, citing veterans like Davis Bertans and Duncan Robinson as hypothetical examples. Rival executives and agents don’t expect the Lakers to get clarity from LeBron James on his long-term intentions before the draft or free agency, which will complicate L.A.’s decision-making process — the team would be more comfortable taking on pricey multiyear contracts with a guarantee that LeBron is sticking around long-term, Pincus observes.
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Pacific Notes: Green, Kerr, Daniels, Ayton

June 12th, 2022 at 3:18pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Warriors big man Draymond Green hopes to improve his on-court performance during Golden State’s Finals series against the Celtics, and is doing his darnedest to avoid distractions from off-court bad actors, per Marc J. Spears of Andscape. Celtics fans erupted into an explicative-laden chant aimed at Green during the Warriors’ 116-100 Game 3 loss to the Boston.

“They are just talking,” Green said following the Wednesday loss. “Not really my job to react to them. They did what I expected… I have to come out and play with more force.”

The four-time All-Star, also a 2022 All-Defensive Second Team honoree, has had a lackluster Finals series. He is averaging 4.3 PPG, 5.8 APG, 7.3 RPG, and 4.5 fouls a night. He was benched for much of the fourth quarter during the Warriors’ 107-97 Game 4 road victory.

There’s more out of the Pacific Division:

  • Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has enjoyed a masterful 2021/22 season with Golden State, opines Tim Kawakami of The Athletic. Kerr’s Warriors successfully knotted their 2022 Finals series against the Celtics 2-2 on Friday. It marks Golden State’s sixth Finals appearance during Kerr’s eight years with the club. Beyond the team’s core of All-Stars Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins, plus shooting guard Klay Thompson, and center Kevon Looney, Kawakami writes that Kerr has adeptly adjusted his rotations for the rest of the team’s personnel to fit a variety of on-court situations.
  • The Kings, who have the fourth pick in the upcoming draft, have scheduled a workout with G League Ignite guard Dyson Daniels, tweets Josh Robbins of The Athletic. Daniels is currently ranked as the No. 6 prospect on ESPN’s big board. Robbins adds that Daniels has previously worked out for several other teams, including the Pistons and Spurs.
  • Following a disappointing Western Conference Semifinals loss to the Mavericks, the Suns face an uncertain future. The team’s biggest decision this summer concerns the fate of restricted free agent center Deandre Ayton, who had an excellent regular season but struggled through an inconsistent postseason. In a pair of subscriber-only stories, Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic identifies five things Phoenix should do if it wants to trade Ayton, and five things the club should do if it wants to retain him.
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Fischer’s Latest: Brunson, LaVine, Beal, Anunoby, Ayton, Collins

June 10th, 2022 at 11:20am CST by Luke Adams

Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson, Bulls wing Zach LaVine, and Wizards guard Bradley Beal are all considered likely to remain with their respective teams in free agency this offseason, Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report said during an appearance on the Dunc’d On podcast this week.

Brunson has been linked to teams like the Knicks, Pistons, and Pacers over the last few months, but the Mavs have consistently stated both publicly and privately that they want to hang onto the point guard. According to Fischer, people around the league are writing in Brunson’s return to Dallas “in Sharpie” at this point. “Literally, everyone in the league is saying that,” Fischer said.

Fischer has been among the reporters to suggest that LaVine’s return to Chicago is no longer viewed as a sure thing, but he doesn’t believe the All-Star swingman will actually leave the Bulls.

“Even people around him have been saying all along, ‘Yeah, the door’s open, but we don’t think he’s going to leave,'” Fischer said.

Asked if there’s any smoke around the idea of Beal exiting Washington, Fischer said he hasn’t heard anything he’s “giving much weight to.” As Fischer observes, the Wizards guard could accept a lucrative contract offer to remain in D.C. this offseason, knowing that he could request a trade down the road if he eventually decides he wants out.

“The Zach LaVine thing, like I said, I don’t expect him to leave, but people there are at least saying, ‘Yeah, the door’s open for him to go,'” Fischer said. “No one’s even coming close to that type of verbiage when it comes to Brad.”

Here are a few more of the highlights from Fischer’s Dunc’d On appearance:

  • Following up on his reporting on OG Anunoby, Fischer reiterated that he believes the Raptors wing wants a greater role on offense. “I do definitely think there’s definitive truth that he wants more opportunity,” Fischer said. “That’s the one thing that’s been repeated across the board from everyone I’ve talked to — from people within his representation, to coaches who’ve worked with him in the past, to general people in the league who would know, let’s say. And that’s the one word that everyone consistently agrees on, that he wants more opportunity, and it doesn’t seem like a clear path to having that in Toronto.”
  • The Raptors aren’t going to “sell off” Anunoby, but appear open to the idea of including him in a trade for an impact player, according to Fischer, who once again identifies the Trail Blazers and Jazz as teams with interest. “Portland is definitely targeting OG. He’s definitely said to be someone that (Damian) Lillard wants to pair with,” Fischer said. “Utah has had conversations – I think they’ve even had conversations with Toronto, (though) I don’t want to say there’s been offers made. Right now most of these teams are in super-early conversations and the only team I hear about that’s ready to talk trade right now is (the Hawks).”
  • Fischer believes Suns center Deandre Ayton could be the biggest name to change teams in free agency this summer, perhaps in a sign-and-trade. “He wants the max, he doesn’t want to come down from that,” Fischer said of Ayton. “… Detroit gets mentioned a lot. Portland, it seems like he’s another guy that Dame has interest in playing with. Toronto gets mentioned. San Antonio’s been mentioned.”
  • Hawks big man John Collins is another player Fischer believes is drawing interest from the Trail Blazers. Fischer adds that the Spurs had serious interest in Collins a year or two ago, but admits he’s not sure whether that’s still the case. “There was someone I talked to today who had just spoken to Atlanta in recent days who said that John Collins is clearly the guy that they are most interested in moving,” Fischer said.
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Draft Notes: Green Room, Houstan, Nembhard, O’Neal, Gillespie

June 9th, 2022 at 10:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

There were no surprises in the 11 green room invitations forwarded to the draft’s top prospects. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony confirmed that the list includes Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, Jaden Ivey, Keegan Murray, Shaedon Sharpe, Dyson Daniels, Bennedict Mathurin, AJ Griffin, Jalen Duren and Johnny Davis. Approximately four more green room invites will be sent out next week, a source tells Givony.

We have more draft news:

  • Michigan’s Caleb Houstan and Gonzaga’s Andrew Nembhard, who both hail from Canada, will work out for the Raptors on Friday, Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports tweets. They’re both considered late first-round or second-round prospects and Toronto has the No. 33 overall pick.
  • LSU forward Shareef O’Neal, son of Shaquille O’Neal, worked out for the Bucks on Thursday, Jovan Buha of The Athletic tweets. The younger O’Neal will visit the Lakers, Cavaliers, Hawks and Wizards in the very near future.
  • Villanova guard Collin Gillespie also worked out for the Bucks on Thursday, Scott Agness of Fieldhouse Files tweets. He’ll soon visit the Suns, Nuggets, Jazz and Trail Blazers. Gillespie is ranked at No. 64 on ESPN’s Best Available list.
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Pacific Notes: Suns, Sarver, Westbrook, Clippers

June 8th, 2022 at 10:58pm CST by Arthur Hill

An outbreak of COVID-19 may help explain the Suns‘ shocking loss to the Mavericks in Game 7 of their second-round series, according to Sam Amick and Joe Vardon of The Athletic. Six members of the organization, including one player, returned positive tests either late in the series or a day after the 123-90 defeat.

Assistant coach Bryan Gates tested positive following Game 6 and had to sit out the final game, the authors add, while some players said they weren’t feeling well before Game 7. The risk of COVID transmission prevented the Suns from having their traditional in-person exit interviews, which were replaced by a Zoom session involving the entire team.

The incident raises concerns that Phoenix wasn’t following league guidelines for testing. The Suns insist that all protocols were adhered to, although they declined to talk to Amick and Vardon for the story. A league spokesman said there’s “no evidence” of any rules violations by players or staff members.

There’s more from the Pacific Division:

  • An independent investigation of Suns owner Robert Sarver involving workplace misconduct is nearing its end, NBA commissioner Adam Silver tells Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports. “It’s a complex investigation. There are hundreds of people who are involved and need to be interviewed,” Silver said. “And we also want to make sure we protect the rights of everyone involved. So these things by nature, I know what frustrates people, do seem to take a lot of time, but we’re certainly getting very close to the end.”
  • The Lakers have shifted their public statements about Russell Westbrook over the past two months and now seem resigned to having him on the roster next season, notes Kyle Goon of The Orange County Register. Darvin Ham talked to Westbrook about the need to sacrifice for the good of the team, but Goon points out that Westbrook is in a position to undermine the first-time head coach if he doesn’t heed Ham’s advice.
  • Former Wisconsin forward Vitto Brown, who played in Spain this season, was among the players at the Lakers‘ free agent mini-camp this week, tweets Dave McMenamin of ESPN.
  • The Clippers‘ new Intuit Dome, which is set to open in 2024, will feature the largest ever double-sided halo display in an arena setting, according to Mirjam Swanson of The Orange County Register.
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Pacific Notes: Johnson, Kings, Atkinson, Lakers

June 7th, 2022 at 10:36pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

After suffering a frustrating seven-game Western Conference Semifinals loss to the Mavericks, the Suns face some key rotation decisions during a 2022 offseason that arrived earlier than expected. One of those decisions involves Cameron Johnson, eligible for his rookie contract extension this summer. Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic examines whether or not it would behoove Phoenix to extend Johnson this year, and whether he should be moved into the team’s starting rotation for the start of the 2022/23 season.

Johnson, the No. 11 pick out of North Carolina in 2020, proved to be a key contributor off the bench for the Suns during the team’s 64-18 season. He averaged a career-high 12.5 PPG on .460/.425/.860 shooting from the floor, while chipping in a career-best 4.1 RPG, 1.5 APG and 0.9 SPG. Johnson also was the first player promoted to a starting role when All-Star shooting guard Devin Booker missed three postseason games due to a hamstring injury.

Rankin predicts that Johnson could earn between $15-20MM annually on an extension, and points to the fact that the Suns reached rookie extension agreements with two of its three most important extension-eligible young players during the 2021 offseason. Jae Crowder started ahead of Johnson at power forward in his 80 games of regular season availability, but as he embarks on the last season of the three-year, $30MM contract he inked with the Suns in 2020, Rankin wonders if a Johnson extension would eventually necessitate the younger player’s move into the starting five over Crowder.

There’s more out of the Pacific Division:

  • The Kings, who have not made the playoffs since 2006, are believed to be on the hunt for a “win-now player” using their lottery pick, league sources inform Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer. Sacramento owns the fourth pick in this year’s draft, and could either draft an NBA-ready player or use the selection in a trade to acquire a veteran who could grow with the team’s current core.
  • Thanks to successive seasons as an assistant coach with the Clippers and now the Warriors, former Nets head coach Kenny Atkinson has joined the ranks of top assistants vying for head coaching vacancies once again, as Steve Bulpett of Heavy.com writes. Atkinson was in the running late to become the new Lakers head coach, and is a major contender to be the prime shot-caller for the Hornets. “It’s a great experience being considered (for head coaching jobs), but, man, I’m in such a great place — not only from basketball, but from a living in California, the Bay Area, the whole thing,” Atkinson said of his current gig as a Golden State assistant under head coach Steve Kerr. “So it almost takes the pressure off when you’re really in a good situation. I mean, I’m still competitive, and I try to do my best in interviewing and everything, but also in the back of my mind I’m saying, like, man, if I don’t get another shot, I’m in a great, great situation.”
  • The Lakers, who may need to replace as many as seven now-free agent players from its 2021/22 roster, got an in-person look at several free agents on Tuesday, per Dave McMenamin of ESPN (Twitter link). McMenamin reports that free agents Alize Johnson, Langston Galloway, Kyle Guy, Louis King and D.J. Wilson were in attendance for a workout.
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Community Shootaround: Deandre Ayton’s Future

June 6th, 2022 at 4:03pm CST by Luke Adams

Suns center Deandre Ayton was one of the only notable members of the 2018 draft class who didn’t receive a rookie scale extension last offseason, but the two sides’ inability to reach a compromise was widely viewed as more of a minor inconvenience than a harbinger of trouble.

The expectation was that if Ayton showed in 2021/22 that he was worthy of a maximum-salary investment, Phoenix would either negotiate a new deal with him as a restricted free agent or match a rival team’s offer sheet.

However, ever since the 64-wins Suns were unexpectedly dispatched by Dallas in the second round of this year’s playoffs, speculation about the possibility of Ayton’s departure has begun to heat up.

Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report wrote last month of skepticism around the league that Phoenix will be eager to match a maximum-salary offer for the former No. 1 overall pick. Fischer suggested the Suns may be reluctant to pay any center $30MM+ per year and reported that head coach Monty Williams has “griped about Ayton’s waning focus.

James L. Edwards III and John Hollinger of The Athletic are the latest to suggest a change of scenery is a viable possibility for Ayton. The two Athletic reporters said in a story today that they’ve heard Ayton is “more likely than not” to leave the Suns this summer.

With that in mind, we want to get your thoughts on Ayton’s situation, starting with whether or not he has earned a maximum-salary investment. Centers aren’t as valuable in the modern game as they used to be, but Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid just finished first and second in MVP voting for a second straight year, and Ayton is a 23-year-old who can score (17.2 PPG), rebound (10.2 RPG), and play solid defense, even if he’s not an elite rim protector or outside shooter.

The Suns would be able to offer Ayton up to a projected $176.9MM over five years, while a rival suitor would be able to put a four-year, $131.2MM offer on the table. If Phoenix isn’t willing to give Ayton that five-year max deal, should another team be comfortable offering the four-year max?

While Hollinger expects the Suns to pursue a sign-and-trade deal if they let Ayton go, there are a small handful of teams that could realistically create the cap room necessary to offer him a $30MM+ starting salary without requiring a sign-and-trade and would be intriguing fits for the young center. The Spurs are one. The Pistons could potentially get there too.

If one of those teams pursues Ayton, should they be willing to bet on the Suns not matching an aggressive offer sheet, or should they negotiate a sign-and-trade to ensure they get their man?

In his story with Edwards, Hollinger suggests Detroit could structure a deal around Jerami Grant, while San Antonio could put together a package that includes Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson. I’m skeptical the Spurs would be eager about giving up that much value to sign Ayton to a maximum-salary contract unless they’re virtually certain the Suns would match it.

Are there other teams you think would aggressively pursue Ayton in sign-and-trade scenarios? Perhaps the Hornets, who have long been searching for a solution in the middle? The Hawks and Trail Blazers were other possible suitors mentioned in Fischer’s recent report.

Head to the comment section below to let us know how you think Ayton’s free agency will play out. Will he be back in Phoenix next season? If not, will the Suns get something back for him?

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