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Fischer’s Latest: Iguodala, Millsap, Mills, Robinson, McDermott, More

August 2nd, 2021 at 9:18am CST by Luke Adams

The Lakers and Warriors, a pair of Pacific rivals, may be competing for some of the same veterans in free agency, according to Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report, who notes that both teams are believed to be eyeing Andre Iguodala.

League sources tell Bleacher Report that Paul Millsap would be interested in joining the Warriors for a deal in the range of the taxpayer mid-level exception (approximately $5.9MM), though a reunion with the Hawks is also a possibility for Millsap, Fischer adds.

The Lakers, meanwhile, have been linked to Patty Mills, according to Fischer, who notes that the team would likely have to offer Mills more than the minimum to lure him to L.A.

Here are a few more free agency rumors from Fischer:

  • Fischer says the numbers floating around for Duncan Robinson‘s next contract are about $16-18MM per year, which is the range I previously speculated for the Heat forward, given last year’s market for top shooters.
  • Another three-point marksman, Pacers wing Doug McDermott, is expected to get a deal worth more than the $9.5MM mid-level exception, per Fischer.
  • The Spurs and Pistons are among the teams with Bulls restricted free agent forward Lauri Markkanen on their radar, according to Fischer.
  • Veteran swingman Danny Green is thought to have interest in playing for the Heat, Fischer reports.
  • Gorgui Dieng will likely be in line for a deal worth about the bi-annual exception ($3.7MM), with the Suns and Spurs among his potential suitors, writes Fischer.
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Chris Paul To Decline Player Option, Enter Free Agency

August 1st, 2021 at 4:42pm CST by JD Shaw

Suns star Chris Paul is declining his $44.2MM player option for the 2021/22 season, allowing him to enter unrestricted free agency this week, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).

As we previously relayed, Paul remains likely to re-sign with the team on a new deal. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports (via Twitter) that there remains optimism between both sides that a new agreement will be reached in free agency.

Entering free agency will allow Paul to seek a multiyear contract and one last big payday. The 36-year-old reached the NBA Finals for the first time in his 16-year career last season, averaging 16.4 points and 8.9 assists per game and earning All-NBA Second Team honors. He’s widely considered to be the most valuable guard on the open market this summer.

As ESPN’s Bobby Marks notes (via Twitter), the Suns can sign Paul to a contract up to four years if he officially opts out. Other teams with salary cap space are restricted to offering him a three-year deal due to the Over-38 rule, which is designed to prevent teams from circumventing the salary cap by offering a contract that extends beyond when the club expects a player to end his career. Paul will turn 38 in May of 2023.

In addition to his impressive averages, Paul also shot 49.9% from the floor and 39.5% from three-point range — all while playing 70 of 72 regular-season games for Phoenix in 2020/21. He was in the final year of a four-year, $160MM contract signed in 2018.

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Western Rumors: Lakers, Pelicans, McDermott, Ja. Green, Holmes, More

July 31st, 2021 at 8:58am CST by Luke Adams

After agreeing to acquire Russell Westbrook from Washington, the Lakers won’t have a ton of cap flexibility to add outside free agents this offseason. Los Angeles will likely be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception and minimum-salary contracts, since acquiring a player via sign-and-trade would create a hard cap that the team wouldn’t be able to stay under.

However, even with limited resources, that doesn’t mean the Lakers will have to wait until the second or third wave of free agency to go bargain hunting. According to Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report, people around the NBA believe that several veterans in search of a championship ring could be willing to pass on more lucrative offers elsewhere to join the Lakers. Fischer identifies DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and Carmelo Anthony as some players who may fit that bill.

Here are a few more rumors from around the Western Conference:

  • The Pelicans, Suns, and Nuggets are believed to be among the teams interested in pursuing Pacers sharpshooter Doug McDermott in free agency, according to Fischer. A recent report from The Indianapolis Star suggested Indiana may lose McDermott this summer.
  • A return to the Nuggets is a possibility for JaMychal Green, but the power forward is also expected to draw interest from the Pelicans and Timberwolves, says Fischer.
  • Following up on a Marc Stein report linking Daniel Theis to the Rockets, Fischer confirms Houston is eyeing the veteran big man and suggests the team’s $8.2MM trade exception could be used to land Theis in a sign-and-trade.
  • According to Fischer, sources expect Richaun Holmes to remain with the Kings. That’s a bit of a surprise — Sacramento only has Holmes’ Early Bird rights and has been linked to several other centers, having agreed on Friday to acquire Tristan Thompson. But the Hornets, one of Holmes’ presumed suitors, are no longer expected to go big for a free agent center after drafting Kai Jones and agreeing to trade for Mason Plumlee, per Fischer. The Raptors, Mavericks, and Knicks may still be possibilities for Holmes, Fischer adds.
  • The Mavericks are viewed as the favorites to sign Sterling Brown in free agency, league sources tell Fischer.
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Chris Paul Considered Likely To Remain With Suns

July 31st, 2021 at 8:23am CST by Dana Gauruder

Chris Paul will likely remain with the Suns on a contract for at least three years and $90MM, according to Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report. Fischer writes that the veteran point guard “appears all but destined to return to Phoenix.”

Paul holds a $44.2MM option on his contract for next season. He could opt out and become an unrestricted free agent, then re-sign with the club for multiple years. Alternatively, he could opt in and sign an extension.

The Pelicans were eager to acquire Paul, which would have given them a top-notch veteran floor leader to pair with franchise player Zion Williamson. Newly-hired head coach Willie Green has a close relationship with Paul and the perennial All-Star lobbied Houston’s front office to hire Green as an assistant when he played there. New Orleans tried to bring in Paul via a trade last off-season before he was acquired by the Suns from Oklahoma City.

An ESPN report this week also noted the connection between Green and Paul and the likelihood of CP3 staying put. Suns GM James Jones had expressed optimism that Paul would remain with the club.

There had been talk around the league this week about Paul potentially bolting from the Western Conference champions, Fischer adds. One of those avenues was closed when the Lakers opted to trade for Russell Westbrook.

Salary-cap issues, plus a rivalry between the two franchises, essentially made a potential Suns-Lakers trade a moot point.

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Windhorst’s Latest: Grizzlies, Kings, Pelicans, CP3, Siakam, Simmons

July 30th, 2021 at 4:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Before they agreed to a deal with the Pelicans that sent Jonas Valanciunas to New Orleans and the No. 10 pick to Memphis, the Grizzlies made it “pretty far down the road” in talks with the Kings about a similar trade, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said on his latest Hoop Collective podcast.

According to Windhorst, the deal the Grizzlies and Kings discussed would’ve involved Marvin Bagley III and the No. 9 pick going to Memphis, with Valanciunas heading to Sacramento. It’s not clear what other pieces were included in those discussions.

Here are a few more items of note from Windhorst’s podcast:

  • Kyle Lowry has frequently been cited as the Pelicans‘ top point guard target in free agency, but the team would also be interested in making a run at Chris Paul, believing his connection to former Phoenix assistant Willie Green could help sell him on a return to New Orleans, says Windhorst. However, according to Windhorst, the feeling around the NBA is that Paul will ultimately stick with the Suns.
  • Discussing the Raptors‘ decision to select forward Scottie Barnes with the No. 4 pick, Windhorst suggested that Toronto has “offered Pascal Siakam around” this offseason. An earlier report indicated that some teams believe the Raptors will become more inclined to pursue a Siakam trade with Barnes in the fold.
  • Confirming some other reports that have surfaced in recent days, Windhorst says the Sixers‘ asking price in Ben Simmons talks has been extremely high. Windhorst’s take on the offers he has heard about: “(They’ve been) so aggressive and outlandish that it makes you walk away saying, ‘They’re not really trying to trade him.'”
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Free Agency Rumors: Collins, Cavs, CP3, Clippers

July 30th, 2021 at 9:22am CST by Luke Adams

NBA teams interested in signing restricted free agent John Collins are growing “increasingly pessimistic” that they’ll be able to pry away the big man from the Hawks, league sources tell Marc Stein (Twitter link).

The Hawks and Collins couldn’t come to an agreement on an extension during the 2020 offseason, with Atlanta reportedly making a four-year offer in the neighborhood of $90MM, while Collins was believed to be seeking the max. That gap created a sense that the Hawks may be reluctant to match an aggressive offer sheet for Collins this summer, but based on Stein’s report, it sounds like rival suitors are skeptical about Atlanta letting the 23-year-old get away.

Here are a few more free agents from around the league:

  • The Cavaliers had Alex Caruso and T.J. McConnell high on their list of free agent targets, but after agreeing to acquire Ricky Rubio from Minnesota, Cleveland may use its mid-level exception to address a position other than point guard, writes Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com.
  • Like Suns owner Robert Sarver, general manager James Jones isn’t sure whether or not Chris Paul will pick up his player option to remain in Phoenix. But if Paul opts out, Jones is optimistic the two sides can reach a new deal. “I think what we have is enticing. I think he likes being here. We like having him here,” Jones said, per Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. “So I’m confident that we will be able to have a conversation hopefully in the coming days that will make everyone happy.”
  • Clippers president of basketball operations Lawrence Frank said the team wants to bring back Kawhi Leonard, Reggie Jackson, and Nicolas Batum in free agency and hopes that Serge Ibaka opts into the final year of his contract, as Andrew Greif of The Los Angeles Times relays. Frank also acknowledged that the club expects Leonard to miss time next season due to his ACL sugery. “That’s going to require a great deal of time and we want to support him in that,” Frank said.
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Western Rumors: CP3, Wolves, Simmons, Barton, Thunder

July 29th, 2021 at 9:26am CST by Luke Adams

Addressing Chris Paul‘s contract situation during an appearance on Arizona Sports’ Burns & Gambo, Suns owner Robert Sarver said he wasn’t sure whether or not the veteran point guard would pick up his player option.

Asked if there was a scenario in which Paul opts out and doesn’t return, Sarver replied, “I don’t know. I’m sure there probably is. But I think our first priority would be to try to get him back, but that’ll depend on his agent and (Suns general manager) James (Jones) and him and me and all that kind of stuff, so I don’t know. We’ll see next week I guess, right?”

Despite Sarver’s hedging, I’d still be a little surprised if Paul and the Suns don’t either agree to an extension or a new contract in the coming days. The Suns owner added that he’s prepared to begin paying luxury tax penalties either next season or the following year, as team salary continues to rise.

Here’s more from around the West:

  • The Timberwolves don’t have a pick in Thursday’s draft, but they’ve been making calls “all over the league,” according to Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic, who says Minnesota remains in the hunt for a power forward. A trade for Ben Simmons is unlikely, but the Wolves haven’t given up on the possibility in the event the Sixers drop their asking price, Krawczynski adds.
  • There’s “growing optimism” that Will Barton and the Nuggets will be able to agree to a new deal in free agency, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post. Barton turned down his $14.7MM player option for 2021/22, but remains interested in returning to Denver on a longer-term contract.
  • John Hollinger of The Athletic has heard some chatter about the possibility of the Thunder trying to trade up to No. 3 in order to select Evan Mobley. However, he notes that the Cavaliers – and other teams that talk to Oklahoma City – will likely try to extract a king’s ransom, given the Thunder’s stockpile of draft picks. OKC may not be willing to pay that price.
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Suns To Work Out Mann Pre-Draft

July 27th, 2021 at 5:05pm CST by Eli Cohen
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Free Agent Rumors: Mavs, Lowry, Kawhi, Knicks, Dinwiddie, More

July 27th, 2021 at 3:56pm CST by Luke Adams

While the Mavericks are expected to show interest in free agent point guard Mike Conley, veteran NBA reporter Marc Stein says Dallas’ focus in free agency will be on pursuing Kyle Lowry and attempting to re-sign Tim Hardaway Jr. Reports to date have suggested that Conley is more likely than Lowry to return to his current team, so it makes sense that the Mavs would prioritize Lowry.

According to Stein, the Mavericks were initially expected to wait to see if Kawhi Leonard gave any indication that he was thinking about leaving the Clippers. However, the team has moved off of those plans, says Stein. That’s probably a signal that Leonard is unlikely to depart Los Angeles.

Here are a few more updates related to free agency:

  • At least one key decision-maker in the Knicks‘ front office has “embraced” the idea of signing Spencer Dinwiddie this offseason, according to Ian Begley of SNY.tv, who hears that at least one other club plans to make the point guard a strong offer. Begley also confirms that DeMar DeRozan is among the other free agent guards on New York’s radar, though he says teams monitoring the situation view the Knicks as more likely to go after DeRozan if they’re able to acquire Damian Lillard in a trade.
  • The Suns are among the teams eyeing sharpshooter Reggie Bullock as a possible free agent target, Begley writes in a separate SNY.tv story. The Knicks have “significant” interest in re-signing Bullock, Begley adds.
  • Despite playing a modest role with the Nuggets down the stretch of the season, JaVale McGee is interested in re-signing with the team, two league sources tell Mike Singer of The Denver Post. Singer cautions that the veteran center figures to have multiple suitors on the open market.
  • Rockets guard Avery Bradley is expected to draw interest from multiple playoff contenders if he becomes a free agent, sources tell Kelly Iko of The Athletic (Twitter link). Houston will have to make a decision soon on Bradley’s $5.9MM team option for 2021/22.
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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

July 27th, 2021 at 1:22pm CST by Luke Adams

The Suns won just 19 games during the 2018/19 season and had a 26-39 record when the 2019/20 season went on hiatus last March. When play resumed in the Walt Disney World bubble, the Suns – who ranked 13th in the Western Conference at the time – were nearly left out. However, the team showed it belonged by winning all eight games it played in the bubble. While it wasn’t enough to make the playoffs, the performance turned heads and provided a preview of what was to come in ’20/21.

Led by many of the same players who spearheaded the 8-0 bubble run – including Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Cameron Payne – and buoyed by newly-acquired point guard Chris Paul, the Suns went 51-21 this past season, good for the second-best record in the NBA.

Despite the team’s regular season success, observers were still skeptical of Phoenix’s ability to win in the postseason, with oddsmakers listing them as first-round underdogs to the seventh-seeded Lakers. But the Suns handled the Lakers, the Nuggets, and the Clippers en route to their first NBA Finals appearance since 1993.

The Suns ultimately couldn’t withstand Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s otherworldly performance in the NBA Finals and dropped the series in six games, but it was a remarkably successful season for a franchise that had finished in the lottery 10 straight times and was two years removed from finishing 14 games behind every other team in the West.

The Suns’ Offseason Plan:

The good news for the Suns is that nearly everyone who played a key rotation role in 2020/21 is under team control for multiple years going forward. The bad news? Paul, the team’s lone All-NBA player, can become a free agent, and bringing him back will hamper Phoenix’s ability to make any legitimate upgrades to its roster.

Paul’s contract situation is a fascinating one, as he holds a player option worth just over $44MM for the 2021/22 season. The idea that a 36-year-old would turn down a $44MM+ salary may seem outrageous, but after finishing fifth in MVP voting, Paul is poised to cash in one final time on a longer-term deal.

Assuming the Suns and Paul want to continue their relationship, they have two options: Paul could opt out and negotiate a new contract with the team, or he could opt in and negotiate an extension.

The latter approach might make more sense for both sides. For instance, if the Suns and Paul agreed that he has earned a $90MM commitment for the next three years, a new contract worth that amount would carry cap hits in the neighborhood of $30MM each year, since his salary could only increase or decline by up to 8% per season.

But there’s no limit on the pay cut a player can take in the first year of an extension, so if Paul were to pick up his $44MM option, he and the Suns could work out a two-year extension that pays him closer to $23MM per year for the following two seasons.

That path would ensure that Paul doesn’t have to accept a pay cut in 2021/22, would make him more movable (if necessary) during the last year or two of the contract, and would give the Suns more financial flexibility starting in ’22/23, when new deals for Ayton and Bridges would go into effect.

Ayton and Bridges are eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason and I expect Phoenix to try to lock up both former lottery picks — Ayton figures to earn the max or something close to it, while Bridges’ next deal will likely exceed $20MM per year.

In the short term, bringing back Paul at $44MM+ would push the Suns well over the cap and may prevent them from using their entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception, so they’ll have to get creative when it comes to upgrading the roster around the edges. They’ll have a portion of the mid-level and the No. 29 pick at their disposal. It would also help significantly if Jalen Smith is ready to take on an expanded role in his second season, since it would reduce the need for another frontcourt piece.

Among the Suns’ own free agents (besides Paul), Payne looks like the highest priority. He has earned a raise on his minimum salary and Phoenix – with his Early Bird rights in hand – should be able to accommodate that bump as long as bidding doesn’t get too crazy.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Player Options

Team Options

  • None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

  • None

Restricted Free Agents

  • None

Two-Way Free Agents

  • None

Draft Picks

  • No. 29 overall pick ($2,009,040)
  • Total: $2,009,040

Extension-Eligible Players

  • Deandre Ayton (rookie scale)
  • Mikal Bridges (rookie scale)
  • Devin Booker (veteran)
  • Chris Paul (veteran) 1

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume Paul picks up his option and the Suns keep their first-round pick, the result would be nearly $127MM in guaranteed commitments for 11 roster spots. That should allow the club to remain below the tax line (projected to be in the $136-137MM range). If the Suns are willing to go a little over the tax line, they’d have more flexibility to re-sign Payne and use their mid-level exception rather than focusing on minimum-salary players.

If Paul opts out to sign a new contract, it would likely give Phoenix more room to maneuver below the tax threshold, opening up the full mid-level execption and even the bi-annual exception. On the other hand, if Paul departs in free agency, this outlook changes drastically, and the Suns could actually generate upwards of $28MM in cap room. But that won’t be the team’s first choice and I don’t think it’ll be CP3’s preference either.

Cap Exceptions Available

  • Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 3
  • Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 3
  • Trade exception: $898,310

Footnotes

  1. Paul would only be extension-eligible if he exercises his player option.
  2. The cap hold for Diallo remains on the Suns’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
  3. These are projected values. If the Suns approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions, instead gaining access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM). If they decide to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

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