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2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns

July 27th, 2021 at 1:22pm CST by Luke Adams

The Suns won just 19 games during the 2018/19 season and had a 26-39 record when the 2019/20 season went on hiatus last March. When play resumed in the Walt Disney World bubble, the Suns – who ranked 13th in the Western Conference at the time – were nearly left out. However, the team showed it belonged by winning all eight games it played in the bubble. While it wasn’t enough to make the playoffs, the performance turned heads and provided a preview of what was to come in ’20/21.

Led by many of the same players who spearheaded the 8-0 bubble run – including Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, and Cameron Payne – and buoyed by newly-acquired point guard Chris Paul, the Suns went 51-21 this past season, good for the second-best record in the NBA.

Despite the team’s regular season success, observers were still skeptical of Phoenix’s ability to win in the postseason, with oddsmakers listing them as first-round underdogs to the seventh-seeded Lakers. But the Suns handled the Lakers, the Nuggets, and the Clippers en route to their first NBA Finals appearance since 1993.

The Suns ultimately couldn’t withstand Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s otherworldly performance in the NBA Finals and dropped the series in six games, but it was a remarkably successful season for a franchise that had finished in the lottery 10 straight times and was two years removed from finishing 14 games behind every other team in the West.

The Suns’ Offseason Plan:

The good news for the Suns is that nearly everyone who played a key rotation role in 2020/21 is under team control for multiple years going forward. The bad news? Paul, the team’s lone All-NBA player, can become a free agent, and bringing him back will hamper Phoenix’s ability to make any legitimate upgrades to its roster.

Paul’s contract situation is a fascinating one, as he holds a player option worth just over $44MM for the 2021/22 season. The idea that a 36-year-old would turn down a $44MM+ salary may seem outrageous, but after finishing fifth in MVP voting, Paul is poised to cash in one final time on a longer-term deal.

Assuming the Suns and Paul want to continue their relationship, they have two options: Paul could opt out and negotiate a new contract with the team, or he could opt in and negotiate an extension.

The latter approach might make more sense for both sides. For instance, if the Suns and Paul agreed that he has earned a $90MM commitment for the next three years, a new contract worth that amount would carry cap hits in the neighborhood of $30MM each year, since his salary could only increase or decline by up to 8% per season.

But there’s no limit on the pay cut a player can take in the first year of an extension, so if Paul were to pick up his $44MM option, he and the Suns could work out a two-year extension that pays him closer to $23MM per year for the following two seasons.

That path would ensure that Paul doesn’t have to accept a pay cut in 2021/22, would make him more movable (if necessary) during the last year or two of the contract, and would give the Suns more financial flexibility starting in ’22/23, when new deals for Ayton and Bridges would go into effect.

Ayton and Bridges are eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason and I expect Phoenix to try to lock up both former lottery picks — Ayton figures to earn the max or something close to it, while Bridges’ next deal will likely exceed $20MM per year.

In the short term, bringing back Paul at $44MM+ would push the Suns well over the cap and may prevent them from using their entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception, so they’ll have to get creative when it comes to upgrading the roster around the edges. They’ll have a portion of the mid-level and the No. 29 pick at their disposal. It would also help significantly if Jalen Smith is ready to take on an expanded role in his second season, since it would reduce the need for another frontcourt piece.

Among the Suns’ own free agents (besides Paul), Payne looks like the highest priority. He has earned a raise on his minimum salary and Phoenix – with his Early Bird rights in hand – should be able to accommodate that bump as long as bidding doesn’t get too crazy.

Salary Cap Situation

Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.

Guaranteed Salary

Devin Booker ($31,650,600)
Deandre Ayton ($12,632,950)
Jae Crowder ($9,720,900)
Dario Saric ($8,510,000)
Mikal Bridges ($5,557,725)
Jalen Smith ($4,458,000)
Cameron Johnson ($4,437,000)
Jevon Carter ($3,650,000)
Ty-Shon Alexander (two-way)
Total: $80,617,175

Player Options

Chris Paul ($44,211,146): Bird rights
Total: $44,211,146

Team Options

None

Non-Guaranteed Salary

None

Restricted Free Agents

None

Two-Way Free Agents

None

Draft Picks

No. 29 overall pick ($2,009,040)
Total: $2,009,040

Extension-Eligible Players

Deandre Ayton (rookie scale)
Mikal Bridges (rookie scale)
Devin Booker (veteran)
Chris Paul (veteran)¹

Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds

Abdel Nader ($1,669,178): Bird rights
Cameron Payne ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights
Torrey Craig ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
Langston Galloway ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
Frank Kaminsky ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
E’Twaun Moore ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
Cheick Diallo ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights²
Total: $11,684,246

Offseason Cap Outlook

If we assume Paul picks up his option and the Suns keep their first-round pick, the result would be nearly $127MM in guaranteed commitments for 11 roster spots. That should allow the club to remain below the tax line (projected to be in the $136-137MM range). If the Suns are willing to go a little over the tax line, they’d have more flexibility to re-sign Payne and use their mid-level exception rather than focusing on minimum-salary players.

If Paul opts out to sign a new contract, it would likely give Phoenix more room to maneuver below the tax threshold, opening up the full mid-level execption and even the bi-annual exception. On the other hand, if Paul departs in free agency, this outlook changes drastically, and the Suns could actually generate upwards of $28MM in cap room. But that won’t be the team’s first choice and I don’t think it’ll be CP3’s preference either.

Cap Exceptions Available

Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 ³
Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 ³
Trade exception: $898,310

Footnotes

Paul would only be extension-eligible if he exercises his player option.
The cap hold for Diallo remains on the Suns’ books from a prior season because it hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
These are projected values. If the Suns approach or cross the tax line, they may forfeit these exceptions, instead gaining access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.9MM). If they decide to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).

Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.

Point Guard Rumors: Paul, Conley, Lowry, Dinwiddie, More

July 27th, 2021 at 9:39am CST by Luke Adams

After watching Chris Paul play a key role in turning the Suns into a legit title contender in 2020/21, teams around the NBA are weighing whether they might be able to replicate that success by adding a veteran guard such as Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, or Paul himself this summer, writes ESPN’s Brian Windhorst. Those three point guards will be free agents and will headline a talented group that also includes Lonzo Ball, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dennis Schröder, and Derrick Rose, among others.

According to both Windhorst and Bleacher Report’s Jake Fischer, there’s a belief around the NBA that the Jazz will be able to re-sign Conley this offseason, even if they have to shed some salary to comfortably do so. However, they’ll face competition for the point guard. Windhorst and Fischer identify the Mavericks as one team expected to be in the hunt for Conley.

As for Paul, he has indicated he’s prepared to turn down his $44MM+ player option for 2021/22, but it’s possible that’s a leverage play, writes Windhorst. If the Suns and Paul are interested in continuing their relationship, a scenario in which CP3 picks up his player option and then signs an extension at a lesser rate may be in both sides’ best interest. If Paul does opt out and seeks a new team, he’ll be limited by the Over-38 rule to a three-year contract.

Here are a few more notes on the point guard free agent market:

Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer confirms a Miami Herald report that stated Kyle Lowry is expected to be seeking a three-year, $90MM contract in free agency.
The Knicks will be among Lowry’s suitors and are willing to offer him somewhere between $20-30MM per year for two seasons, according to Pompey, who says that Spencer Dinwiddie and swingman Evan Fournier are among New York’s other potential targets. Dinwiddie is thought to be seeking $25MM annually, while Fournier is after $18MM per year, says Pompey. I’m skeptical that Dinwiddie, especially, will achieve that goal.
Dinwiddie is viewed as a likely Plan B for the Pelicans if they’re unable to land Lowry, according to Fischer. As Windhorst notes, current New Orleans GM Trajan Langdon previously worked in Brooklyn’s front office during Dinwiddie’s time with the Nets.
League executives believe the Pelicans are willing to let Lonzo Ball go if they find another option they like or if Ball receives an aggressive offer sheet, writes Windhorst.
Bulls head coach Billy Donovan, who had success with Dennis Schröder in Oklahoma City, is thought to be interested in a potential reunion with the Lakers guard, according to Windhorst.
Timberwolves veteran Ricky Rubio is among the point guards whose names have been floated on the trade market so far, per Windhorst.

Suns Hiring Bryan Gates As Assistant Coach

July 25th, 2021 at 9:01pm CST by JD Shaw

The Suns and senior vice president of basketball operations Jeff Bower have parted ways, as relayed by Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic. Bower originally joined the franchise back in 2019.

The Suns are hiring Bryan Gates as an assistant coach on Monty Williams‘ staff, Wojnarowski reports (via Twitter). Gates will replace Willie Green, who left to accept a head coaching job with the Pelicans earlier this month. Gates worked for Williams in New Orleans from 2010-15.

Pacific Notes: Ayton, K. Jones, Lakers, Warriors

July 24th, 2021 at 1:00pm CST by Eli Cohen

Deandre Ayton, fresh off of his first NBA Finals appearance with the Suns, is eligible for a five-year, $168MM max contract that would kick in at the start of the 2022/23 season, and Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic takes a look at what could be next for the big man.

Ayton’s career lows in PPG and APG were a result more of the context of adding Chris Paul and reorganizing the offense, rather than any regression on Ayton’s end, Rankin writes. In fact, Ayton’s growth as a team-first player willing to do whatever it takes for the success of the Suns adds even more appeal for the club as it decides if it will offer him a max deal.

“If sacrificing is leading the wins and where we are today, I’ll sacrifice everything, you know what I’m saying,” Ayton said. “Everything (Paul’s) told me has led up to here, so why stop now?”

We have more news from the Pacific Division:

Kai Jones, the big man out of Texas, interviewed with Lakers president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka at the NBA Combine, and has since worked out at the team’s facility, tweets Kyle Goon of The Orange County Register. The big man out of the Bahamas is a Klutch Sports client who participated in Rich Paul‘s Klutch Pro Day, so the Lakers figure to be very familiar with him. Jones is considered to have one of the widest draft ranges in the first round, as he could go anywhere from the top-10 to the early 20s.
The Lakers worked out six prospects yesterday, tweets Brad Turner of The Los Angeles Times: Josh Christopher, Joshua Primo, Marcus Zegarowski, Anthony Tarke, Jayvon Graves, and Eugene Omoruyi. Christopher and Primo are potentially candidates for the Lakers’ pick at 22. The Lakers are also working out six prospects today, tweets Goon: Carlik Jones, Feron Hunt, Jeremiah Tilmon, Mitchell Ballock, Greg Brown, and Neemias Queta. The Lakers don’t have a second-round pick but could try to trade into the second round.
The Warriors are bringing back Chris Duarte and Trey Murphy III for second workouts this weekend, tweets Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report. While the 14th pick may be seen as a slight reach for the two older prospects, either would fit in right away with the Warriors’ needs and could have untapped upside in the team’s system.

Monty Williams A Key Part Of Suns' Success

July 23rd, 2021 at 8:39am CST by Luke Adams

The acquisition of Chris Paul and the continued development of Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Mikal Bridges were major factors in the Suns becoming a legitimate title contender, but head coach Monty Williams‘ role in the team’s improvement shouldn’t be overlooked, writes Paolo Uggetti of The Ringer.

Lakers Eyeing Veteran Point Guards

July 21st, 2021 at 11:57am CST by Luke Adams

After failing to sign Dennis Schröder to a contract extension during the 2020/21 season, the Lakers will get another chance to sign the veteran to a new deal in free agency this summer. However, it sounds like the team is considering contingency plans to address the point guard spot.

According to Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated, the Lakers “have been on the hunt” for a veteran point guard. Chris Paul of the Suns and Russell Westbrook of the Wizards are among the players on Los Angeles’ list as possible targets, says Spears.

While those names will raise some eyebrows, they come with several caveats. For one, the capped-out Lakers don’t have a clear path to acquiring an impact player in free agency — if Paul turns down his player option with Phoenix, L.A. wouldn’t be able to sign him outright unless he were willing to take a massive discount.

A sign-and-trade is a possibility for CP3. And if he were to pick up his option, he could be acquired via a standard trade. But the Lakers surrendered multiple future draft picks in the Anthony Davis blockbuster and aren’t in position to put together an especially tantalizing trade package for a star. It seems unlikely that Phoenix would want to send Paul to the division-rival Lakers unless the return was significant.

Westbrook is under contract for two more seasons, so he’d also require a trade and there has been no indication so far that the Wizards are looking to move him.

Spears suggests that “there have been talks” about the Lakers acquiring Westbrook in a deal that includes Schröder, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Kyle Kuzma. However, it’s unclear which parties have been involved in those “talks” — the wording could indicate internal Lakers conversations or even just speculation amongst league sources. Schröder and Horton-Tucker would both have to agree to be signed-and-traded to D.C. in such a move, further complicating matters.

Paul and Westbrook both have strong ties to Los Angeles – Paul and his family live in the L.A. area, while Westbrook was born and raised in Southern California – but a number of obstacles would have to be overcome for either player to end up with the Lakers this offseason . Still, the fact that the Lakers are considering such options suggests that the team is willing to get creative and isn’t resigned to simply meeting Schröder’s asking price in order to address the point guard position.

Suns Notes: Paul, Payne, Ayton, Bridges

July 21st, 2021 at 10:26am CST by Luke Adams

Over the course of his 16 years in the NBA, point guard Chris Paul has never come closer to winning a championship than he did this season with the Suns. But ultimately, his season ended like most of those other 15 did — with a playoff elimination. As Dave McMenamin of ESPN writes, Paul now holds the ignominious distinction of being the only player in NBA history to lose four different series in which his team held a 2-0 lead.

Paul has a $44MM player option for the 2021/22 season and it remains unclear what his plan is for that option. Picking it up and trying to work out an extension with the Suns would be one viable path. Opting out in search of a new multiyear deal would be another. After Tuesday’s loss, the 36-year-old wasn’t ready to discuss his intentions, simply confirming that he’s not considering the possibility of retirement.

“It will take a while to process this or whatnot, but it’s same mentality,” Paul said, per McMenamin. “Get back to work. I ain’t retiring, if that’s what you’re asking. That’s out. So, back to work.”

While Paul didn’t specifically address his contract situation, his comments after Game 6 made it sound as if he’s leaning toward remaining in Phoenix, McMenamin notes. The veteran guard spoke about the Suns’ desire to continue improving and to compete for a championship again in 2022.

“Everybody in that locker room knows we had enough, but it wasn’t enough,” Paul said. “So, we got to figure it out. I think for me, I just look at myself and figure out how can I get better, what I could have done more and make sure I come back next season ready to do it again.”

Here’s more on the Suns:

Although the Suns’ loss adds to Paul’s list of playoff disappointments, his legacy as a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer and one of the all-time great point guards has already been cemented, writes Jovan Buha of The Athletic. Mark Medina of USA Today makes a similar case, arguing that CP3’s legacy shouldn’t be tarnished by Phoenix’s loss.
In his preview of the Suns’ offseason, Bobby Marks of ESPN (Insider link) takes a closer look at Paul’s contract situation and several of the other decisions facing the Suns, including Cameron Payne‘s free agency and possible rookie scale extensions for Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges. Adding backcourt bench depth will also be a priority this summer for Phoenix, Marks adds.
Anthony Slater of The Athletic also explores what’s next for the Suns, suggesting that the team should be open to moving the No. 29 pick in next week’s draft for veteran help if the right deal arises.

Bucks Win 2021 NBA Title, Giannis Named Finals MVP

July 20th, 2021 at 11:08pm CST by Luke Adams

The Bucks closed out the Suns on Tuesday night, winning the 2021 NBA Finals by a 4-2 margin and earning the franchise’s first championship in 50 years. Milwaukee last won a title in 1971, led by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and hadn’t earned a spot in the Finals since 1974 before this year.

Two-time Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way for the Bucks, improbably earning NBA Finals MVP honors in a unanimous vote just three weeks after suffering what initially looked like it might be a season-ending knee injury.

Antetokounmpo’s knee hyperextension caused him to miss the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals against Atlanta, but Milwaukee advanced to the Finals without him and he was able to get back on the court for Game 1 vs. Phoenix. The 26-year-old subsequently showed no ill effects from the injury, averaging an incredible 35.2 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game on 61.8% shooting in the six-game series.

Antetokounmpo’s performance on Tuesday was especially remarkable, as he became the first player in postseason history to register at least 50 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocks in a single game, per Justin Kubatko (Twitter link). Giannis’ 50 points tied the record for most points in an NBA Finals closeout game, according to ESPN Stats and Info (Twitter link).

Antetokounmpo becomes the third player in NBA history to win an MVP award, a Finals MVP award, and a Defensive Player of the Year award over the course of his career, joining Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon.

The Bucks’ championship victory is especially meaningful not just for Antetokounmpo but also for head coach Mike Budenholzer, whose job would have been in jeopardy if Milwaukee had been eliminated earlier in the playoffs, and for general manager Jon Horst, who took a big swing by giving up several first-round picks and swaps for Jrue Holiday during the 2020 offseason.

Although Holiday’s offensive production was up and down during the series, his defense on Suns guards Chris Paul and Devin Booker was a crucial part of the Bucks’ success and ensured that Horst’s gamble paid off.

While the Bucks will have some roster issues to address in free agency, especially if Bobby Portis and Bryn Forbes opt out, the team has its entire starting lineup under contract for next season, with Antetokounmpo, Holiday, and Khris Middleton all locked up for multiple years. The Suns will be in a similar position if Paul returns to Phoenix.

The NBA offseason is now officially underway.

Poll: Which Team Will Win Game 6?

July 20th, 2021 at 12:31pm CST by Luke Adams

With Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s availability up in the air heading into the NBA Finals, the Suns were considered the favorites to win the title. And even though Antetokounmpo was able to suit up for Games 1 and 2, Phoenix won both games, securing a 2-0 lead and further cementing the club’s position as the championship frontrunner.

Since then, however, Antetokounmpo and the Bucks have stormed back. Milwaukee has won three consecutive games, including a pair that went down to the wire. And Giannis has led the way in those victories, averaging an eye-popping 33.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 6.7 assists per game on 60.0% shooting. The two-time MVP also delivered signature moments in the final minutes of Games 4 and 5, with an incredible blocked shot last Wednesday and an impressive alley-oop finish on Saturday.

While Antetokounmpo has been the driving force behind Milwaukee’s comeback, he’s gotten some help. Khris Middleton poured in 40 points in the Bucks’ Game 4 win and added 29 more in Game 5. Jrue Holiday, after shooting just 4-of-20 in Game 4, made 12-of-20 shots in Game 5, racking up 27 points and 13 assists to go along with a key late-game steal.

The Suns, meanwhile, have gotten up-and-down production from their stars during their three-game losing streak. Devin Booker scored just 10 points on 3-of-14 shooting in Game 3. He bounced back with 42 points in Game 4, but Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton combined for only 16 points on 8-of-22 shooting in that loss.

Booker (40 points), Paul (21 points, 11 assists), and Ayton (20 points, 10 rebounds) were firing on all cylinders in Game 5, but it wasn’t enough — the Suns shot .552/.684/.909, but didn’t play quite enough defense to pull out a win in their home arena.

Now the Suns find themselves in a tough spot tonight. They’ll have to head into Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks are 9-1 so far in the postseason, and find a way to force a Game 7. If a Game 7 is necessary, it’ll take place on Thursday in Phoenix, so the Suns could once again emerge as the favorites to take home the title. But for the time being, they’re significant underdogs, on the road facing a 3-2 deficit. The Bucks are favored by five points on Tuesday.

We want to know what you’re expecting to happen tonight. Will this be the last day of the 2020/21 NBA season, with the Bucks winning a fourth straight game and earning a championship? Or do the Suns have a little more life in them? Can they force a Game 7?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Western Notes: Williams, Suns, Blazers, Gilgeous-Alexander

July 18th, 2021 at 8:56pm CST by JD Shaw

The Suns will look to regroup in Game 6 after losing three straight contests to the Bucks, Dave McMenamin of ESPN.com writes. Phoenix now trails 3-2 in the series entering Tuesday’s pivotal game.

“We got to win one game to put them back on the plane,” Suns coach Monty Williams said. “That’s it. And you have to have that determination that you’re willing to do whatever it takes to put them back on the plane.”

Game 6 of the Finals will take place in Milwaukee, meaning a Suns win would allow the team to play Game 7 at home. The club won its first two contests in its own arena before dropping Saturday’s game 123-119.

“We knew this wasn’t going to be easy,” Chris Paul said. “We didn’t expect it to be. It’s hard. Coach said it all year long: Everything we want is on the other side of hard, and it don’t get no harder than this.

“So, we got to regroup, learn from this game. But it’s over. We got to get ready for Game 6.”

There’s more out of the Western Conference:

The Suns have been hampered by defensive issues and ball protection, according to The Arizona Republic. Phoenix struggled in non-Deandre Ayton minutes during Game 5, playing Torrey Craig, Jae Crowder and Cameron Johnson when Ayton sat on the bench. The team mostly played Dario Saric in those minutes during the regular season, but Saric suffered a torn ACL in the first quarter of Game 1.
Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated examines the current situation between Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers. To this point, Lillard has publicly denied the notion that he plans to request a trade, but he’s also explained the importance of building a contender around him this summer. The Blazers were eliminated by the short-handed Nuggets during the first round of the playoffs this spring. “Right now, I’m not sure what I’m going to do,” Lillard said on Friday. “My intention, my heart has always been set on being in a Trail Blazers uniform for my entire career. But I think over time, you want to win it all. I want to win it all in a Trail Blazers uniform. We all have to be making strides toward that.”
Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman explores why it wouldn’t make sense for the Thunder to trade Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Gilgeous-Alexander appeared in 35 games for the team this year, averaging 23.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per outing.