- Suns center Deandre Ayton could prove to be the ultimate difference-maker for the team next season and beyond, Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic writes. Ayton, who turned 22 in July, averaged 18.2 points, 11.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in 38 games last season. He was the team’s No. 1 pick in the 2018 NBA draft.
- Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic assesses the prospects of a 2020/21 Suns squad if the team essentially maintains its 2019/20 roster and rely on internal player growth. Backup center Aron Baynes is the only rotation player entering unrestricted free agency this offseason.
Pacers big man Domantas Sabonis and Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas are expected to join the Lithuanian National Team for the FIBA EuroBasket 2022 qualifiers next month, according to Donatas Urbonas (Twitter link). Lithuania is scheduled to play qualifying games in Vilnius against Denmark on November 26 and Belgium on November 29, and the country’s basketball federation has confirmed that Sabonis and Valanciunas are part of the team’s preliminary squad.
Unfortunately for Lithuania, it’s not clear yet whether Sabonis and Valanciunas will be available next summer for the all-important Olympic qualifying tournament that begins on June 29. Lithuania will be vying for one of four final spots in the Tokyo Olympics, and typically NBA players would be free to join their national teams by that point. In 2021, however, it’s possible the NBA’s regular season won’t yet have finished by the end of June.
Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- Veteran guard Nate Robinson hasn’t played in the NBA since the 2015/16 season and his odds of making a comeback at this point are incredibly long. However, he hasn’t given up on the idea, as Eric Woodyard of ESPN relays (via Twitter). “Even at 36, I could still play and still ball out, still be a good spark off the bench,” Robinson said. “But times have changed, the NBA has changed so much. Naw, I will never say I’m retired. They retired me. I didn’t retire.”
- Several ESPN reporters and analysts discussed a series of NBA offseason issues, including the most intriguing player on the free agent market, the trade candidate most worth watching, and the team worth keeping an eye on. Fred VanVleet, Jrue Holiday, and the Warriors, respectively, received the most votes in those three categories.
- In the second part of their survey of NBA agents, Ben Standig and Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic solicited opinions on the league’s best player, how many games the NBA will be able to play in 2020/21, and when the season will start, among other topics. We recapped the first part of the agent survey on Wednesday.
- Several beat writers from The Athletic conducted a new mock draft for the top 10 picks this week. The exercise saw LaMelo Ball go No. 1 to the Timberwolves and included a trade involving the Knicks‘ No. 8 pick and the Suns‘ No. 10 selection, with Phoenix trading up for Tyrese Haliburton.
Warriors big man Marquese Chriss could see his role expand offensively as a passer, Anthony Slater of The Athletic speculates. Chriss showed off his versatility and vision during a recent intrasquad scrimmage. Alen Smailagić doesn’t seem ready to break into the team’s rotation and he’s destined to spend another season in the G League, Slater adds.
We have more from the Pacific Division:
- The Hawks, Bucks, Suns and Heat are among the teams that could be interested in Kings free agent swingman Bogdan Bogdanovic, in the view of James Ham of NBC Sports Bay Area. All but Milwaukee have the cap space to hand Bodganovic an attractive offer sheet. With the recent changes in the front office, it’s more uncertain whether Sacramento will match an offer sheet or whether it would rather pursue a sign-and-trade.
- While the Kings have a quality young point guard in De’Aaron Fox, it’s not out of the question they’ll draft another one with their lottery pick, Jason Jones of The Athletic writes. RJ Hampton, Kira Lewis and Cole Anthony are some of the point guard prospects Sacramento might consider with the No. 12 overall pick.
- Tyronn Lue has the right track record for a championship contender like the Clippers, Mirjam Swanson of the Orange County Register opines. After winning a title in Cleveland, the new Clippers head coach has already established a track record of cultivating chemistry by holding stars accountable, maximizing role players and making smart strategic moves, Swanson adds.
All 30 NBA teams suffered financially from the shutdown, but the Lakers were impacted more than anyone, writes Bill Shea of The Athletic. Figures released by Team Marketing Report, a Chicago-based sports business intelligence firm, show the league lost $694MM from the cancellation of 258 regular-season games.
The Lakers missed out on revenue from 10 home games, tied for the most in the league, which cost the franchise an estimated $52.7MM. Rounding out the top five were the Knicks at $45MM, the Warriors at $42.5MM, the Rockets at $35MM and the Celtics at $31.5MM. Teams losing the least tended to be in smaller markets, led by the Grizzlies at $10.4MM, the Hornets and Timberwolves at $11.7MM each and the Cavaliers and Suns at $11.8MM each.
TMR arrived at the figures by using a weighted formula that considers Fan Cost Index, premium vs. regular ticket prices and attendance. The Fan Cost Index estimates how much it costs a family of four to attend a game. The NBA average for this season is $430, up about $9 from a year ago. Golden State created the most income from fans this year at $6MM per game, with the Lakers just behind at $5.6MM and the Knicks at $5.2MM. The Hornets were last, generating just $1.1MM per home game.
Although the NBA brings in $2.6 billion annually through its national television deals and billions more in corporate advertising, the league still depends heavily on fans coming to games. Commissioner Adam Silver has estimated that attendance is responsible for about 40% of revenue, which is why TMR owner and publisher Chris Hartweg believes teams will aggressively offer promotions to bring the public back when it becomes safe to fill arenas again.
“Something that jumps out as we’ve gone through these gross game day fan revenue exercises is that fan attendance is still critical to teams, even with billion-dollar media deals to cushion the blow,” Hartweg said. “If you take the NBA numbers and project across a full 41-home game season, the average NBA team hit becomes more than $110 million each. Leaguewide, we’re talking $3.3 billion. Our MLB projection was $173 million per team or $5.5 billion total for their 81 lost games.
“Those dollars are a huge incentive for teams and venues to make their facilities as safe as possible for fans to return as soon as possible. And in fans’ favor, we anticipate teams creating very fan-centric deals and offerings to welcome fans back.”
- The Suns had a second Zoom interview this week with former Alabama point guard Kira Lewis, reports Ian Begley of SNY.tv (Twitter link). Lewis is ranked No. 25 on ESPN’s big board, but it’s worth noting that GM James Jones hasn’t been shy about “reaching” for prospects — last year, he selected Cameron Johnson, a projected late first-rounder, at No. 11.
After winning the NBA Finals in 2020, the Lakers are currently listed by sportsbooks as the odds-on frontrunners to do so again in 2021.
Over at BetOnline.ag, oddsmakers have listed the Lakers as +275 favorites to come out of the Western Conference in 2020/21. That means if you place a $100 bet on the Lakers and they win the West next season, you’ll win $275.
While the Lakers are the current favorites, BetOnline.ag places two other Western Conference teams in roughly the same tier. The Clippers (+375) have the second-best odds to win the conference, while the Warriors (+400) have the third-best odds.
Golden State’s placement is an interesting one. We can safely assume that the Warriors will be much improved in 2020/21 with a healthy Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson back in their lineup, and they have the resources necessary to make further roster upgrades. Still, the club is coming off a dismal 15-50 season that saw them finish in last place in the NBA. Winning the West in 2021 would represent a historic turnaround.
The rest of the odds to win the West next year are as follows, per BetOnline.ag:
- Nuggets: +1200
- Rockets: +1200
- Mavericks: +1400
- Trail Blazers: +1800
- Jazz: +2500
- Pelicans: +2500
- Suns: +3300
- Thunder: +4000
- Grizzlies: +5000
- Kings: +12500
- Spurs: +12500
- Timberwolves: +12500
As we acknowledged on Tuesday when we asked you for your thoughts on the Eastern Conference odds for 2020/21, it’s way too early to confidently predict next year’s conference champions. Rosters will undergo significant changes in the coming months in the draft and free agency, and on the trade market.
Still, the anticipated offseason directions for certain teams is baked into BetOnline’s odds. The Thunder would certainly be higher on the above list if the possibility of a rebuild wasn’t hanging over the franchise.
So, with the caveat that plenty could change in the coming months to alter the outlook of the West for the 2020/21 season, we want to get your thoughts on the early projections from oddsmakers.
Should the Lakers be considered the favorites to come out of the West again in 2021? Are the Warriors or another team being overvalued? Are there other clubs being undervalued? Which team do you like to come out of the West next season? And which club do you view as the best value pick based on the odds listed above?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your early forecast for the Western Conference in 2020/21!
The Warriors like Florida State’s Devin Vassell enough to consider him with the No. 2 pick and he would be their likely target if they decide to trade down, writes Connor Letourneau of The San Francisco Chronicle. Multiple sources tell Letourneau that Golden State views Vassell as the best wing defender in the draft and a long-term replacement for Andre Iguodala.
Vassell is 6’7″ with a 7-foot wingspan and has the versatility to be an effective defender at four positions. Not only does he specialize in forcing turnovers, he’s also a reliable shooter, hitting 41.5% from 3-point range this season. Leonard Hamilton, Vassell’s college coach, compares him to Klay Thompson.
“I always tell people that he’s very similar to Thompson,” Hamilton said. “If you look at his shooting stats at Washington State, they’re similar to Devin’s. He’s long, lean, athletic.”
There’s more from the Pacific Division:
- Warriors assistant Mike Brown “made a strong impression” during his interview with the Clippers and has become “an emerging candidate” to be the team’s next head coach, tweets Marc Stein of The New York Times.
- The Suns turned out to be the perfect opportunity for Monty Williams, who hadn’t been a head coach since 2014/15, notes Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. Williams led the team to a 34-39 record, including a perfect 8-0 mark after the restart. “When I got the opportunity in Phoenix, it was a lot of things that went into it,” Williams said. “It wasn’t just a basketball fit for me. It was a fit for my family because I had moved them around from New Orleans to Oklahoma City, back to San Antonio and then we go to Philly and I’m going to move them again. So I was looking for a family fit. I needed, obviously for me, to pray about it and make sure I had the peace that I needed to take on another job because it requires a lot of energy, a ton of time and I had to have a peace about doing it again.”
- New associate head coach Alvin Gentry fits in perfectly with the Kings‘ up-tempo philosophy, writes Tracee Jay of NBA.com. Under Gentry, the Pelicans led the league in pace in 2017/18 and were second in 2018/19.
The Suns have the tenth pick in the upcoming 2020 NBA draft, prompting Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic to wonder if Iowa State combo guard Tyrese Haliburton might drop to Phoenix. Haliburton, who touts his own passing ability as second to none among this year’s prospects, was also a high-level shooter in college.
“I’m coming in as a guy who can make shots,” said Haliburton. “And someone who can facilitate at a high level and I think I’m a really good off-ball defender. My IQ is very high. I know where to be at the right time.”
Rankin sees the 6’5″ guard as being able to eventually supplant Ricky Rubio as All-Star Devin Booker‘s eventual backcourt partner.
There’s more out of the Grand Canyon State:
- Suns head coach Monty Williams recently discussed the intense team practices that helped spark the team’s 8-0 run during the NBA’s Orlando restart, according to Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic in a separate piece. Booker and forward Dario Šarić, specifically, took the competitive practices to another level. “I’ll never forget Dario was kicking all of the [bigs’] butts playing one-on-one against the bigs and Book was on the other end whipping up on the guards,” Williams said.
- Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic weighed in on a recent hypothetical Bleacher Report trade idea, a one-for-one swap of Booker for All-Star Sixers guard/forward Ben Simmons. Rankin postulated that Booker’s terrific all-around offensive ability, which appeared to take a leap during the NBA’s summer Disney World restart, is ultimately more valuable than Simmons’ more limited two-way game.
- We recently passed along word that Sixers assistant coach Kevin Young has joined Williams’ staff as an assistant coach with the Suns.
3:11pm: The Suns have officially announced the hiring of Young as an assistant coach.
2:39pm: Sixers assistant Kevin Young won’t remain on Philadelphia’s staff under Doc Rivers, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, who reports (via Twitter) that Young has agreed to join Monty Williams‘ coaching staff with the Suns.
Young, who began his career as a G League coach, was promoted from the Delaware 87ers to Brett Brown‘s staff in 2016. He received another promotion to the front of the bench two years later, and then interviewed for Philadelphia’s head coaching job following Brown’s ouster this year.
Wojnarowski reported last week that Young made a “strong impression” on the 76ers during that head coaching interview, but with Rivers putting together his own staff, Young won’t be returning to Philadelphia for the 2020/21 season.
In Phoenix, Young will reunite with Williams – who served as a Sixers assistant during the 2018/19 season – and should fill the hole on the coaching staff created by Darko Rajakovic‘s departure last month.