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Grizzles, Blazers, Spurs, Suns Vying For Play-In Spots

August 10th, 2020 at 9:26am CST by Luke Adams

As a result of this past weekend’s games, we’re now assured of having our first-ever “play-in tournament” in the Western Conference, since there’s no way that the Grizzlies – or any other team that can finish at No. 8 – will finish more than four games ahead of the West’s No. 9 seed.

That won’t be the case in the East, where the Nets are locked into No. 7 and the Magic into No. 8, with the Wizards too far out of contention to force a play-in. But two teams out of the Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Spurs, and Suns are set to participate in a play-in tournament in the West. The Kings and Pelicans have officially been eliminated from play-in contention.

That play-in tournament will essentially be a best-of-three series, with the No. 8 team being staked to a 1-0 advantage in the “series.” In other words, the No. 9 seed will need to win twice to earn the conference’s final playoff spot, while the No. 8 seed will only need to win once in two tries to make it through.

Here are the current standings in the West:

Seed	Team	Record	Games back	Games left
8	Grizzlies	33-38	–	BOS, MIL
9	Blazers	33-39	0.5	DAL, BKN
10	Spurs	31-38	1	HOU, UTA
11	Suns	31-39	1.5	OKC, PHI, DAL

The Grizzlies are the only team that fully controls its own destiny when it comes to claiming the No. 8 seed. Wins over Boston and Milwaukee would ensure that Memphis holds that spot, and a win in either one of those games would guarantee that the Grizzlies at least participate in the play-in tournament.

Those games – against two of the East’s top three teams – won’t be easy though, and if the Grizzlies lose both of them, the race will be wide open, with any of the three teams chasing them technically still in play for the No. 8 seed.

The Blazers, with the softest remaining schedule, still look like a good bet to participate in a play-in tournament, but they’ll need to finish strong — losing one of their two games would leave them vulnerable to being passed in the standings by the Spurs and Suns if those teams win out. If Phoenix and San Antonio both win out, the Suns would finish slightly ahead of the Spurs.

All four teams still alive for the Nos. 8 and 9 seeds play their final seeding games on Thursday, so we’ll know by the end of that day which teams will take part in the play-in. The most important game to watch on today’s schedule is Suns vs. Thunder. Phoenix won’t be eliminated from play-in contention with a loss, but it would make their path a whole lot more difficult.

What do you think? Which two teams do you expect to participate in the play-in tournament, and which club still do you expect to ultimately claim the No. 8 spot in the West?

Draymond Green Fined For Violating Anti-Tampering Rule

August 9th, 2020 at 11:40am CST by Arthur Hill

Warriors forward Draymond Green has been fined $50K for comments he made about the Suns‘ Devin Booker on TNT, the NBA announced on Twitter.

The league considers Green’s suggestion that Booker should force his way out of Phoenix so he can play for a better organization to be a violation of its anti-tampering rule. In announcing the fine, the league notes that before the current season, it “adopted a stricter enforcement approach for conduct relating to tampering, salary cap circumvention, and free agency timing rules, including with respect to the rule prohibiting player-to-player tampering.”

Green, who is serving as a studio host during the NBA’s restart, raised eyebrows Friday with pointed comments toward the Suns and his opinion on Booker’s future.

“It’s great to see Book playing well and Phoenix playing well, but get my man out of Phoenix,” he said. “It’s not good for him, it’s not good for his career. Sorry Chuck (Charles Barkley), but they’ve gotta get Book out of Phoenix. I need my man to go somewhere that he can play great basketball all of the time and win, because he’s that kind of player.”

Suns Notes: Playoff Race, Booker, Carter, Warren

August 9th, 2020 at 10:56am CST by Arthur Hill

The NBA’s best team since the season restarted seemed lucky to be invited to the Disney World complex at all. The Suns were 26-39 when the hiatus began and stuck in 13th place in the Western Conference. With five straight wins, they are the only unbeaten team in Orlando and are now in serious contention for a playoff spot.

“I could give you some coach-speak, but I don’t know,” coach Monty Williams said to Nick Friedell of ESPN after Saturday’s win over Miami. “I just think we have a group that wanted to come here and prove to the world that they were worthy of being here. They heard a lot of the stuff being said. I think when people say stuff about you, you want to prove them wrong. … We’ve been competitive all year; we’ve been a scrappy team. We play teams hard, we share the ball, we try to make the right plays. We’ve tried to stick to our DNA and not get outside of that.”

The Suns are a half-game behind the Trail Blazers for ninth place and a spot in the play-in series next weekend, and two games back of the eighth-place Grizzlies. It’s the first five-game winning streak for Phoenix since 2014, but with tough games left against the Thunder, Sixers and Mavericks, the players know they might have to stay perfect to break their postseason drought.

“A lot of guys grew up in these three or four months,” Ricky Rubio said. “It seems like a second season with all of them with the same coach, and it helps to see the growth with this team. We have more room to improve … but we have eight games, and we know we have to go 8-0.”

There’s more Suns news to pass along:

After Saturday’s game, Devin Booker reacted to Draymond Green‘s comments that he should force his way out of Phoenix to play for a winning organization, Friedell writes in the same story. “Since I’ve been in Phoenix, we haven’t had the win success that we had, but the support’s been there,” Booker said. “And this is what we owe to the fans, we owe to the organization. It’s been a long time for us and I think this bubble opportunity was big for us, and we’re taking advantage of it.”
One of the surprises has been the emergence of second-year guard Jevon Carter, who hit six 3-pointers and scored 20 points last night, Friedell adds. Carter was acquired from the Grizzlies in a minor trade last summer.
The Suns could have had the leading scorer in Orlando, but opted to ship T.J. Warren to the Pacers last offseason for cash and draft picks in a three-team deal. During a recent appearance on TNT, Warren called the trade “disrespectful,” saying, “No one wants to get traded for cash.” (hat tip to Adam Stratton of Valley of the Suns).

Draymond Green: Devin Booker Needs To Get Out Of Phoenix

August 8th, 2020 at 3:39pm CST by Arthur Hill

Warriors forward Draymond Green admits he may have crossed the line into tampering with comments he made Friday on “Inside the NBA” calling for Suns star Devin Booker to force his way out of Phoenix, writes Sam Quinn of CBS Sports. Booker has been one of the top performers in Orlando, leading the Suns to four straight wins and keeping them in the playoff race, but Green doesn’t believe he has a bright future if he remains with the franchise.

“It’s great to see Book playing well and Phoenix playing well, but get my man out of Phoenix,” Green said. “It’s not good for him, it’s not good for his career. Sorry Chuck (Charles Barkley), but they’ve gotta get Book out of Phoenix. I need my man to go somewhere that he can play great basketball all of the time and win, because he’s that kind of player.”

Asked by co-host Ernie Johnson if his comments constituted tampering, Green laughed and replied, “Maybe.”

Green has been openly critical of the Suns before, Quinn notes. In the preseason, he blasted them for giving up too early on lottery pick Marquese Chriss, who turned in a career-best season for the Warriors.

“Let’s be frank about it,” Green said. “When (Chriss) was there, the organization was terrible. Everything was going wrong. But he get blamed, like he’s the problem. When he left, ain’t nothing go right. That’s my take on it.”

Green has a reputation for reaching out to stars from other teams, most notably Kevin Durant after Golden State dropped the seventh game of the NBA Finals in 2016. Durant agreed to join the Warriors and captured two championships with them.

It would be difficult for Golden State or any other team to pry Booker out of Phoenix. He’s the centerpiece of the rebuilding effort in Phoenix and still has four seasons remaining on the maximum extension he signed in the summer of 2018.

While Green’s statement will attract scrutiny from the NBA office, the league has tended to overlook player comments and assess tampering fines only to team executives, observes Chris Cwik of Yahoo Sports. He cites the example of LeBron James saying last year that he would like to have Anthony Davis as a teammate. The league responded by sending an anti-tampering memo to all 30 teams, but didn’t impose a fine on James.

Payne's Contract Very Friendly For Suns

August 7th, 2020 at 7:01pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Suns found a creative way to reduce their commitment to guard Cameron Payne, ESPN’s Bobby Marks tweets. His $1.98MM salary for next season has a team option but only $25K is guaranteed if the Suns exercise it. Thus, Payne is essentially on a non-guaranteed contract next year even if the option is picked up, Marks adds. The Suns signed Payne to a two-year contract in late June.

Warren Isn't Holding Grudges

August 6th, 2020 at 6:38pm CST by Dana Gauruder

T.J. Warren‘s explosive scoring has been one of the biggest stories of the restart. The Suns traded him to the Pacers last offseason in a salary dump but Warren claims to harbor no grudges against his former team, as IndianaSportsCoverage.com relays. “I don’t have no ill blood between anybody,” he said. “I’m just fortunate enough to be doing what I’m doing, playing basketball at the highest level. With me, it’s all love.” Warren has two years and $24.5MM remaining on his contract, which is increasingly looking like a bargain.

2020 NBA Draft Lottery Update

August 6th, 2020 at 2:21pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020 NBA draft lottery, originally scheduled for May 19, will now take place on August 20, two weeks from today. Besides happening three months later than usual, this year’s lottery also figures to look a little different, since the ongoing coronavirus pandemic will almost certainly make it impossible for the NBA to bring representatives from the bottom 14 teams to a single location.

As we wait to see what the league has in mind for this year’s event, here are a few updates and reminders on the 2020 NBA draft lottery:

The bottom eight teams are already locked into their lottery spots

Much has been made in the last 24 hours about the Wizards (24-44), who are participating in the NBA’s summer restart, slipping below the inactive Hornets (23-42) in the Eastern Conference standings.

Fortunately for Hornets fans – and unfortunately for Wizards backers – the lottery odds for those two teams won’t hinge on which team finishes with the better overall record. For the NBA’s bottom eight teams, one silver lining of not getting an invite to Orlando this summer for the restart is that their spot in the top eight of the lottery has been locked in, based on the league standings as of March 11.

The Hornets will have the eighth-best odds and the Bulls will have the seventh-best odds even if the Wizards go 0-8 this summer and fall below both teams in the standings.

The race for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference could impact the lottery odds

With the non-Orlando teams frozen in the top eight lottery positions, the other six spots will be determined by two factors:

Which six teams in Orlando don’t make the playoffs.
What their records were as of March 11.

This is great news for a team like Phoenix. Having won their first three games in Orlando – as the Grizzlies lost their first four – the Suns are very much alive in the race for the No. 8 seed in the West. It will still take a strong finish and some luck for the Suns to qualify for a play-in tournament, but let’s suppose they do.

In that scenario, if the Suns win the play-in tournament and earn a postseason spot, their first-round pick would be 15th overall, best among the playoff teams, since they entered the hiatus with a 26-39 record, worse than Orlando or Brooklyn.

If they were to lose a play-in tournament, Phoenix would end up with the 10th-best lottery odds, ahead of the rest of Orlando’s non-playoff teams besides the Wizards, who were the only one of the 22 invited teams with a worse record than the Suns as of March 11.

Essentially, if you want to determine the back half of the lottery standings, you just have to sort the 22 teams in Orlando by their March 11 records, from worst to first, then remove the 16 teams that end up in the playoffs.

The Grizzlies could theoretically still keep their first-round pick

The Grizzlies owe their 2020 first-round pick to the Celtics, but it includes top-six protection.

As long as Memphis makes the playoffs, that protection doesn’t really matter — Boston would receive the pick. However, with the Grizzlies’ hold on the No. 8 seed slipping, there’s still an outside chance that they could keep the pick.

Let’s say Memphis falls out of the No. 8 spot and either loses a play-in tournament or altogether misses out on qualifying for a play-in. In that scenario, the Grizzlies would enter the lottery with the 14th-best odds, since they had a better record on March 11 than any of their fellow lottery teams. That would give them a 2.4% chance at moving into the top four, where their pick would be protected.

Those aren’t good odds. In all likelihood, missing the playoffs would just mean the Grizzlies sent the Celtics the No. 14 pick instead of a selection in the 15-17 range. Still, the outside chance at another top pick would at least be a small silver lining if Memphis can’t grab that No. 8 spot. If the Grizzlies do hang onto this year’s pick, they’d owe Boston an unprotected first-rounder in 2021.

Over in the East, the Nets owe a lottery-protected pick to the Timberwolves and would keep it if they fall out of the postseason. However, the Wizards’ struggles have essentially ruled out that possibility. One more Brooklyn win or Washington loss will ensure that the Nets make the playoffs and send their pick to Minnesota.

Current lottery odds

Listed here are the odds for the teams not invited to Orlando, who will hold the top eight spots in the lottery standings.

The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Warriors, for example, have a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
GSW	14	13.4	12.7	12	47.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
CLE	14	13.4	12.7	12	27.8	20	–	–	–	–	–	–
MIN	14	13.4	12.7	12	14.8	26	7.1	–	–	–	–	–
ATL	12.5	12.2	11.9	11.5	7.2	25.7	16.8	2.2	–	–	–	–
DET	10.5	10.5	10.6	10.5	2.2	19.6	26.7	8.8	0.6	–	–	–
NYK	9	9.2	9.4	9.6	–	8.6	29.6	20.6	3.8	0.2	–	–
CHI	7.5	7.8	8.1	8.5	–	–	19.7	34.1	12.9	1.3	>0	–
CHA	6	6.3	6.7	7.2	–	–	–	34.5	32.1	6.7	0.4	>0

The tentative odds for the bottom six spots, assuming the Grizzlies hang onto the No. 8 seed, can be found right here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Ayton Is Ready To Prove Himself In The Bubble

August 5th, 2020 at 9:27pm CST by Jovan Alford

Beverley suffered the injury in the first quarter against the Suns on Tuesday afternoon. The defensive-minded point guard’s injury isn’t considered serious, however, which is good news for the Clippers, who have championship aspirations.

After missing 35 games earlier this season, Suns center Deandre Ayton welcomes the opportunity to compete down in the bubble, writes Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. The 22-year-old big man says that he’s matured and is confident in his abilities. “I can say I’ve grown up in a way to where I’m just not being a robot running the play,” he said. “I’m the playmaker when I got the ball, for real, and just me seeing the type of dominance and the type of effect I have on both sides of the floor. Affects the whole game and the whole team has bought in.” Through three games in the bubble, Ayton is averaging 16.6 PPG and 9.0 RPG.

Community Shootaround: Western Conference Playoff Race

August 5th, 2020 at 9:59am CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA’s restart got underway last Thursday, the Grizzlies were in the driver’s seat for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference, with at least a 3.5-game cushion on each of their five potential challengers. However, a slow start from the Grizzlies – who have lost three consecutive games to teams chasing them – has created a fascinating, wide-open race for that final playoff spot in the West.

After an 0-3 start, Memphis’ lead for that No. 8 spot is down to 1.5 games, and all five of their challengers are now within 3.5 games. To make matters worse, the Grizzlies will be without key big man Jaren Jackson Jr. for the rest of the season due to a meniscus tear, and the team’s schedule isn’t getting any easier. Contests against Utah, Oklahoma City, Toronto, Boston, and Milwaukee are on tap for the Grizzlies, who will have to hope that some of those Eastern teams are locked into their seeds by the last week of the season and decide to rest some starters.

The Trail Blazers, who currently hold the No. 9 spot, have looked like the biggest threat to Memphis so far in Orlando. With Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins healthy again, Portland is nearly at full strength and has recorded impressive wins over the Grizzlies and Rockets, sandwiching a tough loss to Boston. The Blazers are only a year removed from appearing in the Western Conference Finals. After struggling for much of the season, they’ve recently played more like the 2018/19 squad than the team that went 29-37 before the hiatus.

The Spurs and Suns have also looked rejuvenated since the season resumed. They own a combined 5-1 record so far, with the only blemish coming on Monday, when San Antonio lost a 132-130 heart-breaker to Philadelphia. The Spurs were four games out of the playoffs when the restart began, and the Suns were six games back, but they’re now within just two games and three games, respectively.

The Pelicans got off to a slow start last week, but their schedule is so forgiving that they’re still in a pretty good position to push for the No. 8 or 9 seed. After beating the Grizzlies on Monday, the Pelicans will play their final five seeding games against teams with losing records — Washington, San Antonio, Orlando, and Sacramento (twice). With Zion Williamson rounding into form, New Orleans has the most favorable schedule of any Western playoff contender.

Of course, those two games against the Kings loom large. Sacramento has been one of the summer’s most disappointing teams so far, having lost winnable games to San Antonio, Orlando, and Dallas. But the Kings are still just 3.5 games back of the Grizzlies and aren’t dead yet — those two games against the Pelicans will be massive, and Friday’s matchup against Brooklyn is certainly favorable.

No matter what happens over the next week-and-a-half, it looks like a near certainty at this point that we’ll get a play-in tournament for the No. 8 seed. The No. 8 team can only avoid a play-in tournament by finishing more than four games ahead of the No. 9 team, and right now even the 13th-seeded Kings are withing four games of Memphis.

Positioning will be crucial though. Only two teams can participate in that play-in tournament, so finishing 10th means little. Conversely, finishing in eighth place is massive, since it means only having to win once in the play-in tournament, rather than twice. At this point, there’s no guarantee the Grizzlies hang onto the No. 8 spot entering a play-in tournament — there’s even a chance they could slip to 10th or lower.

We want to know where you stand on the Western Conference playoff race. Has your opinion changed at all through the first six days of summer games? Which two teams do you think we’ll see in a play-in tournament? Which club do you expect to ultimately claim the No. 8 seed and face the Lakers in the first round of the postseason?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!

Aron Baynes Still Not Ready To Return

August 4th, 2020 at 3:56pm CST by Luke Adams

Suns center Aron Baynes, who joined the team late after recovering from the coronavirus, remains unavailable for Tuesday’s game vs. the Clippers, tweets Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. “(He) had a really light practice yesterday,” head coach Monty Williams said. “Didn’t do much on the court at all. 3-on-3, 4-on-4, 5-on-5. So (he won’t play) at this point.”