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Potential 2020 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

June 15th, 2020 at 1:44pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.

A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2018/19 and 32 in 2019/20, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

In 2017, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – centers Alex Len and Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,642,800.

Jakob Poeltl (Spurs)
Thon Maker (Pistons)
Denzel Valentine (Bulls)

As the Nos. 9, 10, and 14 picks in the 2016 draft, Poeltl, Maker, and Valentine won’t be hit particularly hard by falling short of the starter criteria. Their projected qualifying offers would have ranged from approximately $5.09MM to $4.7MM, respectively, so a dip to $4.64MM shouldn’t have a major impact on their respective free agencies. Of the three players, only Poeltl looks like a lock to even receive a QO.

The top-14 pick whose situation remains unclear:

Because of the unusual circumstances surrounding this season, the usual definition of the starter criteria becomes a little more complicated. For instance, if a player started 40 games, but his team’s season ended after 65 games, should he be credited with having met the starter criteria based on the fact that he was “on pace” to do so over a full 82-game season?

There’s only one player who technically didn’t meet the starter criteria but was on pace to do so: Bulls guard Kris Dunn. After starting 44 games in 2018/19, Dunn started 32 of Chicago’s games this year, for a total of 76 over the last two seasons. If his starts this season were prorated over a full 82 games, he would have met the starter criteria.

The NBA and NBPA have agreed to prorate the criteria for performance bonuses and incentives in player contracts — it would make sense for the same rules to apply to Dunn. However, as we discussed last week, the fourth-year guard had a knee injury that was expected to sideline him for the rest of the season before COVID-19 threw the schedule into disarray. The Bulls, who had control over Dunn’s ability to make the last six starts he needed, may push back against the idea that proration should allow him to surpass the starter-criteria threshold.

ESPN’s Bobby Marks tells Hoops Rumors that Dunn will likely be deemed to have met the starter criteria, in which case his qualifying offer will be worth $7,091,457. If that changes, the value of his QO would dip to $4,642,800.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this season.

Dario Saric (Suns)

Because Saric was a 12th overall pick and met the starter criteria with 50 starts this season, he’s eligible for a qualifying offer worth $5,087,871 instead of $4,791,213. No other players fit the bill this year — many of the best players drafted between Nos. 10 and 30 in 2016 have already been extended, while the others didn’t have major roles or are no longer on their rookie contracts.

Entering the season, Malik Beasley – who logged nearly 1,900 minutes in 2018/19 – looked like the strongest candidate to join Saric in this group. However, Beasley had an inconsistent role in the Nuggets’ rotation before being traded to the Timberwolves, and ended up making just 14 starts (all with Minnesota), with 1,209 total minutes played.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

No second-round picks or undrafted free agents eligible for restricted free agency met the starter criteria this season, which would have put them in line for a qualifying offer worth $3,126,948.

Actually, Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings) technically qualified for this group, but because his initial NBA contract was more lucrative than most, his qualifying offer will be worth $10,661,733 based on other criteria, rendering the starter criteria irrelevant for him.

De’Anthony Melton, Kenrich Williams, Torrey Craig, and Jevon Carter were some of the other top candidates to meet the starter criteria among second-rounders and UDFAs, but none ultimately recorded more than 1,011 minutes (Melton) or 18 starts (Williams).

As a result, those players – and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents – won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Salary information from Basketball Insiders used in the creation of this post.

Restart Notes: Health Risks, LeBron, COVID-19, Bass

June 14th, 2020 at 12:01pm CST by Arthur Hill

Significant risks await the NBA as it prepares to bring roughly 1,500 people into a bubble environment in Orlando, writes Zach Lowe of ESPN. He talks to several health experts who assess the possibility of keeping players and staff members safe from the coronavirus long enough to finish the season.

“They are going to see things on the ground they did not expect,” said Steven Pergam, an infectious disease specialist and an associate professor at the University of Washington. “The main potential weak point is how (Walt Disney World) employees interact with (NBA) staff,” adds Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “But you can manage it in ways that do not create a whole lot of risk.”

The health professionals agree that frequent testing will be important to stave off a potential widespread outbreak. They also state that even if a player contracts COVID-19, there’s no guarantee it will be passed on through games or practices.

“The person has to be at just the right point in the infection where they are very contagious and the viral load is very high,” explains Abraar Karan, a physician at Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women’s Hospital.

Given the health risks, Lowe questions the decision to bring the Suns and Wizards into the bubble environment. Both teams face long odds to even reach a play-in game, and the additional personnel increases the chances of someone contracting the virus. Lowe claims the decision to include the two teams was financial, creating more games, which brings in more revenue.

There’s more surrounding the NBA’s restart:

Many of the league’s top stars participated in a conference call Friday where objections were raised to the plan to resume the season. However, LeBron James was notably absent, and Sam Amick of The Athletic explains it’s because James believes he can play basketball and advocate for social change at the same time. “Because of everything that’s going on, people are finally starting to listen to us,” James told Jonathan Martin of The New York Times this week. “We feel like we’re finally getting a foot in the door. How long is up to us. We don’t know. But we feel like we’re getting some ears and some attention, and this is the time for us to finally make a difference.”
NBA commissioner Adam Silver has a lot to resolve as he balances strong player sentiment for resuming the season and ending it, states Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated. Adding to the concern over racial issues is an increase in the coronavirus in Florida, which reported a state-record 2,500 new cases Saturday.
NBA spokesman Mike Bass told Marc Stein of The New York Times that the league will address the objections raised by players (Twitter link). “We understand the players’ concerns and are working with the Players Association on finding the right balance to address them,” Bass said.

Restart Notes: Player Concerns, Reporters, Announcers

June 11th, 2020 at 9:41am CST by Luke Adams

After reporting on Wednesday that several dozen players have expressed reservations about the NBA’s plan to resume its season in Orlando this summer, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski provided a few more details in a full story and in subsequent tweets.

According to Wojnarowski, approximately 40 to 50 players were “on and off” a conference call in a 24-hour stretch from Tuesday to Wednesday to discuss their concerns. However, there has been no formal petition to the NBPA from any group asking not to be included in the restart, sources tell ESPN.

The “restrictive and isolated” nature of the proposed Orlando bubble is a major issue being discussed ny those concerned players, per Wojnarowski. Players who leave the bubble are expected to be subjected a 10-day quarantine, and family members won’t be permitted to join players at Disney until after the first round of the playoffs — players will have been in Orlando for nearly two months by that point.

It remains to be seen how many players will seriously consider skipping the restart altogether. However, sources tell ESPN that if a player does decide not to participate, his team will likely be permitted to replace him with a substitution player. A player who is supplanted by a replacement player wouldn’t be eligible to participate in the remainder of the season, Woj notes. In other words, a player who stays home and gets replaced wouldn’t be able to change his mind and report to Orlando if his team makes a deep postseason run.

According to Wojnarowski, if a player has a medical issue that may increase his risk of suffering more serious COVID-19 symptoms, he’ll be permitted to seek an independent medical evaluation. Even if he’s deemed fit to participate in the resumed season, the player could stay home without consequence (beyond not being paid for the games they miss).

Here’s more on the NBA’s restart:

According to a Professional Basketball Writers Association memo obtained by Robert Silverman of The Daily Beast, there’s a chance that a select group of reporters could be permitted to cover the resumed season and interact with players and coaches in Orlando. However, those reporters wouldn’t be permitted to re-enter the bubble if they leave, and their employers would have to pay for their housing during their three months at Disney, the cost of which may be prohibitive for many outlets.
ABC and ESPN play-by-play announcer Mike Breen isn’t sure what the plans are for his role this summer, but hopes he’ll get the opportunity to call games in person in Orlando, as he tells Richard Deitsch of The Athletic. “We could possibly be doing games from a remote location, from a studio, or we could possibly be down in Orlando and doing the games there in a booth that socially distanced away from the players,” Breen said. “Everything is going to be determined over the next couple of weeks. But I would like to be in the arena to call the games.”
A panel of ESPN writers takes a closer look at the nine competitors for the final three playoff spots, evaluating the cases for and against the Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, Suns, Nets, Magic, and Wizards earning a postseason berth.

Poll: Will Grizzlies Hang Onto No. 8 Seed In West?

June 9th, 2020 at 1:35pm CST by Luke Adams

When the NBA season was suspended in March, the Grizzlies held a 3.5-game lead over the top challengers for the No. 8 seed, but were entering one of the toughest stretches of their 2019/20 schedule. At 32-33, Memphis had 17 games left. Of those 17 games, 11 were against playoff teams and five were against immediate threats to the Grizzlies’ playoff spot (Portland, New Orleans, and San Antonio).

Now that the league has settled on playing just eight more games this summer, the Grizzlies’ path to a postseason spot is simpler in some ways, but more complicated in others. Any team hoping to pass the Grizzlies for the No. 8 seed will have to make up four games in an eight-game stretch, which will be a tall order.

Even if the Grizzlies play sub-.500 ball and go 3-5 when play resumes, the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, or Spurs will have to go 7-1 to surpass or match them. The Suns, who are six games back, wouldn’t even be able to catch Memphis if the Grizz win more than two games.

However, the NBA’s new rules for Orlando also ensure that the Grizzlies will be subject to a play-in tournament if at least one team finishes within four games of them. In other words, unless Memphis increases or maintains its lead over all five teams behind them in the Western Conference standings during those eight seeding games, a play-in tournament is happening.

The Grizzlies would still have a leg up in that play-in tournament, which would pit them against the No. 9 team. Memphis would only have to win one game, while the challenger would have to win twice. But the club wouldn’t have much room for error — losing the first game in the play-in tournament would result in a winner-take-all second game.

Assuming the summer schedule is made up primarily of the next games on the team’s initial schedule, as expected, the Grizzlies will still have a challenging path, but it won’t be too grueling. Memphis wouldn’t be a major underdog against Portland, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, or New Orleans (twice). And while the Grizzlies would likely have to face the Bucks and possibly the Celtics, none of the West’s top three teams would be on their upcoming slate.

What do you think? When play resumes this summer, will the Grizzlies hang onto the No. 8 seed, clinching it outright or in a play-in tournament? Or will another team make a run and claim the conference’s final postseason berth?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your thoughts!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Sarver Cautions About Hurdles Before Play Resumes

June 5th, 2020 at 7:45pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Suns owner Robert Sarver says there are many hurdles to clear before play can resume in Orlando on July 31, according to Matt Layman of ArizonaSports.com. Sarver made his comments in a radio interview with 98.7 FM. “The logistics with Disney — you know a number of these hotels have had layoffs, have been partially closed or fully closed, and so there’s a re-startup there,” he said. “And then there’s the whole health concern with COVID-19 and how that plays out and making sure that we go back to what our first priority was, which was the health and safety of the players and the staff.”

NBA Expected To Approve 22-Team Return-To-Play Format

June 3rd, 2020 at 11:25am CST by Luke Adams

11:25am: The NBA’s Board of Governors is expected to approve Silver’s plan on Thursday, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

10:00am: When he meets with the NBA’s Board of Governors on Thursday, commissioner Adam Silver intends to propose a return-to-play plan that will see 22 teams resume their seasons, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic.

The NBA reportedly discussed proposals involving 16, 20, 22, or 30 teams last week, with that 22-team format gaining increased support. Although the ownership groups from teams like the Hawks and Bulls expressed a desire to participate, per Charania, the plan will exclude them and the rest of the NBA’s bottom-eight teams in order to limit – to some extent – the number of people the league will have to bring into its “bubble” in Orlando.

As Charania details, the 22-team format would bring back the 16 current playoff teams, along with six additional clubs who are within six games of a postseason spot (the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, Suns, and Wizards).

The plan would see those 22 clubs play eight regular season games apiece, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link), before a play-in tournament is held for the eighth seed. The play-in format would be as follows, per Charania:

If the No. 9 seed is more than four games behind the No. 8 seed, the No. 8 seed would automatically earn the playoff spot.
If the No. 9 seed is within four games of the No. 8 seed, those two teams would enter a play-in tournament for the final playoff spot in the conference. Such a tournament would be double-elimination for the No. 8 seed and single-elimination for the No. 9 seed (ie. a best-of-three series, with the No. 8 seed given a 1-0 lead to start).

Currently, the Grizzlies hold a 3.5-game lead on Portland, New Orleans, and Sacramento in the West, with San Antonio four games back, and Phoenix six games back. In the East, the Magic have a 5.5-game lead on the Wizards, so Washington would need to make up some ground to force a play-in tournament.

Besides giving those six current lottery teams a chance to make the postseason, the format will allow all 22 clubs to surpass 70 regular season games, ensuring that many of them meet the requirements for regional TV contracts, which will help out the league financially.

According to Charania, July 31 remains the target date for the resumption of the 2019/20 season, with the draft lottery and combine – which had been postponed indefinitely – now expected to take place in August. Presumably, those events would take different forms than they normally do, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. It’s not clear yet how the 2020 lottery odds may be affected by the play-in tournament format.

The NBA’s proposal for the resumption of the season is also expected to include many medical and safety protocols, Charania notes. Sources tell The Athletic that those protocols will likely include players showering at their hotels rather than in the arena, inactive players sitting in the stands instead of on the bench, and players not being permitted to bring guests into the “bubble” until the postseason begins.

Any proposal from the NBA will require approval from at least three-quarters of the league’s Board of Governors (ie. 23 of 30 team owners). However, even if the plan isn’t every club’s first choice, there’s an expectation that team owners will get behind Silver and vote in favor of his proposal.

The Board of Governors’ Thursday call is scheduled for 12:30pm eastern time, tweets Wojnarowski.

More Details On Friday’s Board Of Governors Call

June 1st, 2020 at 1:14pm CST by Luke Adams

There’s concern among some NBA owners about the fact that a 22-team return-to-play format would result in a number of small-market teams not playing any games for nine months or more, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Zach Lowe.

The ESPN duo reports that Thunder owner Clay Bennett expressed those concerns on last Friday’s Board of Governors call, openly wondering if the NBA could bring back all 30 clubs when it resumes play. Other team owners, including Josh Harris (Sixers) and Robert Sarver (Suns) “enthusiastically” backed the idea of having as many teams as possible in the bubble environment, per Woj and Lowe, who add that Hawks owner Tony Ressler wants his team to be able to play in Orlando even without a path to the postseason.

While some team owners are in favor of having all 30 teams resume play, commissioner Adam Silver and the NBA don’t appear as bullish on that idea, given the health and safety concerns tied to bringing so many people to Orlando. Additionally, as ESPN’s report notes, Silver reminded those on Friday’s call that many players – and some teams – are “far less invested” in the idea of conducting several weeks of camps and enduring a quarantine period in order to play a handful of regular season games.

Wojnarowski and Lowe provided several more details on Friday’s conference call. We’ll round up the highlights right here:

One Eastern Conference official on Friday’s call described the push to include as many teams as possible as follows, according to ESPN: “The message was something bigger, reminding people that some teams can’t just reopen the doors in nine of 10 months and so easily sell tickets or a sponsorship without having played basketball for that long.”
With the NBA focusing on a 22-team return to play, there have been conversations about the teams left out of this season’s resumption holding mandatory summer training camps or even participating in regional fall leagues to help bridge the gap between seasons, per ESPN. Such a concept would need to be collectively bargained with players, and Woj and Lowe say there’s an expectation that the league will reach out to the NBPA to discuss the issue.
The NBA is still determining how a potential play-in tournament would work in the 22-team format, Woj and Lowe say. It remains unclear how much of an advantage the current No. 8 seeds would receive in such a tournament, especially if they widen their leads on non-playoff teams when the season resumes. The unbalanced nature of bringing back 13 Western teams and just nine Eastern squads also complicates the play-in issue.
According to ESPN’s report, the NBA estimates that a 22-team format with some regular season games and a play-in tournament will be worth “several hundred million dollars more in revenue” than a 16-team format that advances straight to the postseason.

Players Oppose Going Straight To Postseason When Play Resumes

May 29th, 2020 at 4:32pm CST by Luke Adams

Appearing on ESPN’s SportsCenter on Friday (video link), Ramona Shelburne reported that NBA players she has spoken to are opposed to the idea of advancing directly to the postseason when the league resumes play.

“The one thing that they really don’t want to do is go straight to the playoffs,” Shelburne said. “They might have essentially four months off between March 11 and whenever we get the season resumed, and nobody wants the first meaningful game they play to be a playoff game. They need at least a week – maybe even longer than that – of real games that count for something before they play a playoff game.”

Some of the proposed scenarios for the NBA return would involve just bringing back the 16 playoff teams and advancing directly to the postseason; others would involve only teams at or near the bottom of the playoff picture participating in a play-in tournament. Shelburne suggests that neither of those solutions would be favorable for teams at the top of the postseason picture, who would want some time to shake off the rust and re-establish their chemistry before jumping into the playoffs.

Earlier today, we relayed Shams Charania’s report on the four scenarios the league discussed in its conference call with the Board of Governors call today. We noted in that story that bringing back all 30 teams seems unlikely. Based on Shelburne’s report, it sounds like the NBPA may not be on board with jumping directly to the playoffs with just 16 teams either.

That would leave two scenarios — a World Cup-esque play-in pool, featuring 20 teams, and a “playoffs-plus” option that may feature 22 teams. Shelburne and Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer provided a few more updates on that second option this afternoon, offering the following details:

Teams within six games of a playoff spot would be invited to participate, per Shelburne (Twitter link). That means the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, Suns, and Wizards would join the 16 current playoff teams.
All 22 teams would likely play eight regular-season games apiece, then a play-in tournament would be held for the eighth seed in each conference, according to O’Connor (Twitter link).
While the proposal isn’t yet finalized, it sounds as if conferences would remain in place for the postseason under this scenario, O’Connor adds.

The solution would check off a few boxes for the NBA. It would give every playoff team a solid ramping-up period before the postseason; it would allow many of those 22 teams to reach the 70-game threshold necessary for regional TV contracts; and it would give every team in Orlando something to play for without the league having to bring back all 30 clubs.

However, as O’Connor observes in another tweet, there are some potential downsides as well. Timing could be an issue if the NBA is aiming to resume play on July 31 and requires two or three weeks of regular season games before beginning the playoffs.

Plus, the particulars of the play-in tournament are unclear — for instance, the Magic are currently 5.5 games up on the Wizards and could increase that gap with eight more regular season games to play. Would Washington still be given a chance to steal the eighth seed in that scenario?

There’s no indication yet that the NBA is leaning toward that 22-team concept, and even if the league goes in that direction, it’s possible some details would be tweaked, so we’ll have to wait for further updates on talks between the league, teams, and players. There’s hope that a vote will happen next week.

Pacific Notes: Bagley, Hield, Kaminsky, Suns

May 26th, 2020 at 10:47pm CST by ChrisCrouse

Trading Marvin Bagley III might be a prudent move for the Kings, Richard Ivanowski of the Sacramento Bee contends in a piece that looks at a hypothetical trade for each player on the team. While he acknowledges that Sacramento is unlikely to consider such a move, Ivanowski pitches the idea of sending Bagley to the Wizards for their 2020 first-rounder (Washington is currently ninth in our Reverse Standings) and Thomas Bryant.

Bagley, who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 draft, hasn’t been able to stay healthy since coming into the league. That, coupled with the presence of Richaun Holmes, could make Sacramento more comfortable with moving on from the 21-year-old, Ivanowski writes.

Here’s more from the Pacific Division:

Buddy Hield has been the subject of some trade speculation, and Ivanowski believes that dealing him to the Magic for Aaron Gordon would be a solid move for the Kings (same piece). Sacramento could pair the 24-year-old with Harrison Barnes as the team’s starting forwards.
Suns big man Frank Kaminsky isn’t too concerned with the logistics of the NBA’s return; he just hopes to be able to participate now that he’s healthy, as Gina Mizell of The Athletic passes along. “I’ll go to Saturn to play basketball at this point,” Kaminsky said. “I’ll go pretty much anywhere. You tell me where to be and I’ll be there, ready to play.”
The Suns hold a $5MM team option on Kaminsky for 2020/21 and the former No. 9 overall pick said the team hasn’t really discussed it with him, as Mizell adds in the same piece. “Obviously, I really like it here,” Kaminsky said. “I really like this staff. … I’d really like to be back, but that’s something that’s gonna have to be talked about once everything (with the rest of this season is) figured out.”

Kaminsky, Returning From Knee Injury, Hopes To Play If League Un-Pauses

May 22nd, 2020 at 8:48pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Suns big man Frank Kaminsky, out since January with a right patella stress fracture, claims that he is now “ready to make a push towards playing again” if the NBA resumes regular season play, according to Gina Mizell of The Athletic (Twitter link).