Suns Rumors

Details On Traded Picks, Upcoming Draft Tiebreakers

With the 2017/18 NBA regular season in the books, the postseason matchups are set in both the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference.

More importantly for fans of most non-playoff teams, the end of the regular season means that the 2018 NBA draft picture is clearer than ever. The 2018 draft order is close to being set and – with a small handful of exceptions – most of this year’s traded draft picks with protections on them have now officially changed hands or officially stayed put.

However, there are still some major question marks surrounding the draft order, since several clubs finished the regular season with identical records, and draft tiebreakers don’t work like playoff tiebreakers do. In order to break these ties, the NBA will conduct random drawings this Friday, as Jonathan Givony of ESPN notes (via Twitter).

[RELATED: 2017/18 NBA Reverse Standings]

For lottery teams, such as the 24-58 Mavericks and Hawks, who finished tied for third in the lottery standings, the implications of those drawings are huge. Whichever team wins that tiebreaker will have ever-so-slightly better odds at the first overall pick (13.8% to 13.7%), and will be in position to claim the higher first-round pick if neither team lands in the top three.

For instance, if the Suns and Grizzlies remain at No. 1 and No. 2 in the lottery and another team leapfrogs the Mavs and Hawks, the winner of the tiebreaker between Dallas and Atlanta would claim the No. 4 overall pick — the loser would get No. 5. For the second round, the loser of the tiebreaker would receive the higher selection.

Here are the draft tiebreakers that will be conducted on Friday:

  • Mavericks vs. Hawks for Nos. 3, 4.
  • Kings vs. Bulls for Nos. 6, 7.
  • Bucks vs. Heat for Nos. 16, 17.
  • Spurs vs. Timberwolves for Nos. 18, 19.
  • Pacers vs. Pelicans vs. Thunder vs. Jazz for Nos. 20-23.

Several of those tiebreakers will also affect this year’s traded picks. Most notably, the Bucks/Heat drawing has massive implications for Milwaukee and Phoenix — the Bucks’ first-round pick will head to the Suns if it lands at No. 16, but Milwaukee would keep it if it ends up at No. 17. In other words, each team has a 50/50 shot at the pick. If the Bucks keep it, they’d owe their 2019 first-round selection to Phoenix, albeit with somewhat similar protections.

Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for 2018. A check mark indicates the pick will definitely be sent to the indicated team:

  • Nets pick to Cavaliers (✔️): Eighth in lottery standings
  • Lakers pick to Sixers (97.1%) or Celtics (2.9%): 10th in lottery standings
    • Note: Celtics will receive pick if it lands at No. 2 or No. 3 via the lottery.
  • Pistons pick to Clippers (97.5%): 12th in lottery standings
    • Note: Pistons will keep pick if it lands in top three via the lottery.
  • Heat pick to Suns (✔️): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
  • Bucks pick to Suns (50%): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
    • Note: Bucks will keep pick if it lands at No. 17 via a random drawing.
  • Timberwolves pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 18 or 19 (tie)
  • Thunder pick to Timberwolves (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
  • Pelicans pick to Bulls (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
  • Cavaliers pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 25
  • Raptors pick to Nets (✔️): No. 29
  • Rockets pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 30

Here’s a breakdown of the traded second-round picks that will change hands in 2018:

  • Bulls pick to Knicks (✔️): No. 36 or 37 (tie)
  • Nets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 38
  • Knicks pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 39
  • Lakers pick to Nets (✔️): No. 40
  • Hornets pick to Magic (✔️): No. 41
  • Clippers pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 43
  • Bucks pick to Nets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
  • Heat pick to Rockets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
  • Nuggets pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 47
  • Trail Blazers pick to Mavericks (✔️): No. 54
  • Cavaliers pick to Hornets (✔️): No. 55
  • Celtics pick to Thunder (✔️): No. 57
  • Warriors pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 58
  • Raptors pick to Suns (✔️): No. 59
  • Rockets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 60

Suns Rumors: Len, House, Booker, Fizdale

As we detailed last month, fifth-year center Alex Len seems like a good bet to leave the Suns as an unrestricted free agent this summer. Len reinforced that idea this weekend by talking like a player who is preparing to move on from his current situation.

“I had a great five years here,” Len said of his time in Phoenix, per Scott Bordow of The Arizona Republic. “I had ups and downs but I feel like it’s been a great time and a great learning experience with everything I’ve had thrown at me so I feel like anywhere I go or stay here from here on out I’m going to keep rising and get better.”

A year ago, Len became one of the few restricted free agents who sign a one-year qualifying offer rather than negotiating a longer-term deal with his current team or a rival club. Generally, players who take that approach don’t stick with their current club when they become eligible for unrestricted free agency a year later, so it’s not a real surprise that Len is already talking about his time with the Suns in the past tense.

Here’s more out of Phoenix:

  • While Len may be on his way out, two-way player Danuel House hopes that his recent play has shown the Suns – or another team – that he deserves a spot on an NBA roster next season, as Bordow details. “I think I’ve proven a lot,” said House, who has averaged 12.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and 2.8 APG in his last five games. “I’m just going to play hard, try to make the right plays, that I’m able to step up and do things for the team that they need me to. That’s my main objective to show that I belong in this league and that I deserve to be here.”
  • In a separate article for The Arizona Republic, Bordow touches on a few topics, including Devin Booker‘s upcoming extension window, T.J. Warren‘s future role, and the Suns’ coaching search. Notably, Bordow fully expects Booker to sign a max deal with the club sometime after he becomes extension-eligible on July 1.
  • The Suns are among the teams expected to show “serious interest” in former Grizzlies head coach David Fizdale, Marc Stein of The New York Times writes in his latest email newsletter. As Stein notes, James Jones has an “increasingly loud voice” in Phoenix’s front office, and Fizdale coached Jones for several years as an assistant in Miami.
  • For more Suns stories, including an explanation of how the “starter criteria” impacts Elfrid Payton and the details on the team locking up the top spot in the lottery standings, be sure to check out their team page right here.

Potential 2018 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.

Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.

Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.

Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this year.

Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.

The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Suns Secure Top Spot In Lottery Standings

Following the Grizzlies’ win over Detroit and the Suns‘ loss to Golden State on Sunday, Phoenix has locked up the NBA’s worst record for the 2017/18 season. As our Reverse Standings show, the Suns’ 2.5-game lead for that top lottery spot ensures that they’ll head into next month’s draft lottery with a 25% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick. They’ll also be guaranteed a top-four pick in the 2018 draft.

The Suns will be hoping for better luck this year than they had last spring — after finishing with the NBA’s second-worst record in 2016/17, Phoenix slipped out of the top three of last year’s lottery, ultimately landing Josh Jackson with the fourth overall pick. This time around, the Suns will have a 64.3% chance of securing a top-three selection.

Although the Grizzlies are no longer in the running for the No. 1 spot in the lottery, they look like a good bet to wind up at No. 2 in the lottery standings — they have a 22-58 record, putting them 1.5 games ahead of the 24-57 Hawks and Mavericks with three days left in the season.

Unlike in the NBA’s playoff race, where ties are broken based on each team’s performance in certain regular-season matchups, lottery ties are broken via coin flips. If Atlanta and Dallas ultimately finish tied for third in the lottery standings, they’d receive nearly equal odds of landing the No. 1 pick. Rather than 15.6% for third place and 11.9% for fourth, one team would have a 13.8% chance for the No. 1 pick and one team would have a 13.7% chance. In that scenario, the winner of a coin flip would receive the slightly higher lottery odds, and would get the higher draft pick if neither team ends up in the top three.

2018 represents the last year that the NBA will use its current draft lottery format. Starting in 2019, the lottery odds will be smoothed out, reducing the “top” teams’ chances of landing the highest picks. If the Suns had finished No. 1 in the lottery standings under that new format, they’d only have a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick – plus a 40% chance at a top-three selection – and could have fallen as low as No. 5.

Suns Notes: Jones, Booker, Cousins

Fourteen-year NBA veteran James Jones hasn’t had much time to acclimate to his new role as vice president of basketball operations for the Suns but, as Scott Bordow of The Arizona Republic writes, the 37-year-old has fallen in love with the position just one year removed from his playing career.

Jones, who focuses on player development while team general manager Ryan McDonough tackles scouting, believes that the club is closer to winning than their record suggests and implies that they need to surround their solid young core with players committed to winning.

Our young guys have talent that needs to be realized,” Jones said. “I think we need to challenge them to be better, to be great and to continue to put them in a winning environment and surround them with players that want to win at all costs and raise the bar for them from a performance and conditioning standpoint.

If taken at face value, the club could be looking to take the next step in its rebuild, progressing from the asset accumulation stage that saw them acquire valuable young players like Devin Booker and Josh Jackson to the stage of actually starting to build a winning environment.

The Suns have failed to win 25 games in each of the past three seasons, so a conscious commitment to winning would be a notable development.

We’ll look to add guys that bring that type of mentality but also we have to create it internally by putting our guys in tough situations, putting our guys in strategic situations that will test their mental toughness, test their level of competitiveness and push them and reveal who they are,” he said.

There’s more out of Phoenix tonight:

  • The Suns were said to have an interest in DeMarcus Cousins when he came available for trade during the 2016/17 season. This summer he’ll be a free agent and HoopsHype’s Bryan Kalbrosky suggests that Phoenix, replete with several other former Kentucky Wildcats, could once again explore such an option.
  • Count Devin Booker among those confident that the Suns will be aggressive this offseason. “This summer is a big summer for us,” Booker told Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated. “You hear our GM come out and say he’s going to be super aggressive. We have young talent, we have a lot of picks, with a lot of money too. So I think there’s definitely going to be a lot of moves made this summer.
  • The Suns have a pile of interesting young assets and a mandate to capitalize on them so expect an interesting summer in the desert. Did you know that you can get a sneak peek at any rumors that start to swirl in the weeks leading up to the much anticipated 2018 offseason? Follow our Phoenix Suns page or, if you’re using the Trade Rumors app, add the dedicated team feed to your account.

Coaching Rumors: Magic, Bucks, Suns, Knicks

When Chris Mannix of Yahoo Sports polled executives around the NBA recently on rising head coach candidates, Raptors assistant Nick Nurse and Raptors 905 head coach Jerry Stackhouse were among the top names on the list. According to Gery Woelfel of The Racine Journal Times, both Nurse and Stackhouse will likely be among the the candidates the Magic consider if the club elects to replace Frank Vogel this offseason.

In addition to the fact that current Magic president Jeff Weltman was formerly the GM in Toronto, Stackhouse also has a connection to Orlando general manager John Hammond, who was the GM in Milwaukee when Stackhouse played for the Bucks. Woelfel adds that some NBA officials believe the Magic are “leaning toward” replacing Vogel with Stackhouse, though Orlando’s list of preferred targets figures to become clearer if and when the club formally moves on from its current head coach.

Here are a few more coaching notes and rumors from Woelfel:

  • Multiple sources tell Woelfel that Clippers coach Doc Rivers and Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer would have “more than a passing interest” in the Bucks‘ position if they move on from their current teams this offseason. Some NBA officials believe that Budenholzer wouldn’t want to be part of an “extensive” rebuild in Atlanta, according to Woelfel.
  • While the Suns are expected to conduct a wide-ranging head coaching search, multiple NBA executives and coaches think David Fizdale, Jason Kidd, and Villanova’s Jay Wright will receive strong consideration, says Woelfel.
  • Besides Wright, Virginia’s Tony Bennett is among the college coaches expected to draw NBA interest. “Everybody knows he’s an exceptional defensive coach, but he does some really nice things offensively, too. He can flat-out coach.” one longtime NBA executive told Woelfel. “I think almost every team that is in the market for a new coach will take long, hard looks at Wright and Bennett. They’re both great coaches and they’re both great guys.”
  • A league source expects Mark Jackson and David Blatt to be among the finalists for the Knicks‘ job if the team dismisses Jeff Hornacek, according to Woelfel.

And-Ones: Wright, 2K League, EuroCamp, Fines

After leading his Wildcats to their second NCAA title in the last three years, Villanova head coach Jay Wright figures to draw interest from NBA teams this spring. Three NBA clubs currently have interim head coaches in place and will be in the market for full-time solutions in the offseason, and a handful of other franchises could make changes on the sideline too.

Still, it may be difficult to pry Wright away from Villanova, as Jeff Eisenberg of Yahoo Sports writes. The school’s athletic director Mark Jackson acknowledged that NBA interest in Wright will be “inevitable,” but he has “no sense” that the head coach wants to go anywhere, he tells Eisenberg. Assistant coach Ashley Howard agrees with that sentiment.

“I think he loves it here at Villanova,” Howard said of Wright. “He’s shown that. He’s had opportunities to go in the past, and he’s shown that he’s committed to staying here at Villanova and continuing to make this program great.”

Wright is currently making $2.6MM per year, Eisenberg notes, but a raise figures to be on the way after the latest championship if he remains at Villanova. Since the Suns are one team that may have interest in hiring Wright, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 did some digging and was told that Wright is expected to have his salary increased to at least $4MM, making it harder for him to walk away from the Wildcats (Twitter link).

Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • The draft for the NBA’s new 2K eLeague took place this week, and the league is putting its weight behind the new esports venture — as Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee writes, Shaquille O’Neal will run the Kings‘ 2K squad (Kings Guard Gaming), while commissioner Adam Silver is looking to make his mark on North American esports, per Ohm Youngmisuk and Jacob Wolf at ESPN.com. We won’t be covering the league on a regular basis, but for more details on the NBA’s foray into professional gaming, check out Alex Kennedy’s FAQ at HoopsHype.
  • As Adidas withdraws its support from the annual EuroCamp for international prospects, the NBA is looking to salvage the event, reports Jonathan Givony of ESPN.com. The Eurocamp will take place from June 2-5 in Treviso, Italy and will be rebranded as the NBA Elite International Camp, according to Givony. In a separate story, Givony also takes a closer look at the new Next Generation program, an event organized by the NCAA, NBA, and USA Basketball for prospects during the Final Four.
  • Nets forward Quincy Acy and Pistons center Andre Drummond were fined $25K and $15K by the NBA earlier this week, according to the league. The two players engaged in a shoving match during Sunday’s game in Brooklyn, resulting in ejections for both.
  • Grand Rapids Drive center Landry Nnoko, who was in camp with the Pistons in the fall, was named the NBA G League’s Defensive Player of the Year for 2017/18. Peter J. Wallner of MLive.com has the details.

Ayton-Booker Combo Resembles Shaq-Kobe?

Potential top pick DeAndre Ayton indicated during a radio interview that he and Devin Booker could form a duo similar to Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant during their Lakers years if he winds up with the Suns, the team’s SB Nation blog The Bright Side tweets“Honestly, I could see myself in Phoenix,” the University of Arizona freshman center said in a CBS Sports Radio interview. “I could see a little Shaq and Kobe 2.0.” The Suns currently have the worst record in the league and will likely remain there. If they get the No. 1 selection, they could draft Ayton and then trade the first-rounders owed to them by the Heat and Bucks to move up and draft a point guard, according to Scott Bordow of the Arizona Republic. If they fall to the No. 2 pick and Ayton is off the board, they would be happy to land Euro guard Luke Doncic and then move those same picks to get frontcourt help, Bordow adds.

Five Traded 2018 Draft Picks With Protections To Watch

A ton of 2018’s first- and second-round picks have been included in trades already, and many of those traded picks have protections on them. In those instances, the pick only changes hands if the protection conditions are met — for example, the Hawks traded their second-round pick to the Clippers, but included top-55 protection on it, meaning L.A. would only receive it if it falls between 56 and 60. Given Atlanta’s record, that obviously won’t happen.

For many of this year’s traded picks, there’s not much drama left related to those protections. Either they definitely won’t change hands, like that Hawks second-rounder, or they definitely will — like the Rockets‘ first-round pick, which is headed to Atlanta with top-three protections on it.

However, there are a handful of traded draft picks whose status remains up in the air. The season’s final few games will determine which teams end up with those picks, or whether they change hands at all.

Let’s dive in and take a closer look at five of those protected picks worth watching down the stretch…

  1. Pistons‘ first-round pick (to Clippers; top-4 protection)
    • The Pistons are likely to finish the season 12th in the lottery standings, so this pick is extremely likely to end up with the Clippers. But that could change if Detroit lucks out in the lottery — at No. 12, the Pistons would have a 2.5% chance of jumping into the top three and keeping their pick.
  2. Bucks‘ first-round pick (to Suns; top-10 protection and 17-30 protection)
    • As of today, the Bucks’ 41-36 record has them tied with the Heat for the 15th or 16th pick in the draft. That would mean the Suns receive Milwaukee’s selection. That could change though, if the Bucks get hot to finish the season, pushing the pick back to 17th or 18th overall. Milwaukee has games left against Boston, Philadelphia, and three lottery teams, so that scenario is in play. If it happens, Milwaukee would keep its 2018 first-rounder and owe the Suns a protected first-rounder (protected for 1-3 and 17-30) in 2019.
  3. Timberwolves‘ first-round pick (to Hawks; top-14 protection)
    • At 44-34, the Timberwolves are up one game in the loss column on the ninth-seeded Nuggets, and two on the tenth-seeded Clippers. The Wolves’ remaining two games against Denver will be crucial for determining whether they make the playoffs and lose their pick or miss the playoffs and keep it (they’d owe their 2019 lottery-protected first-rounder to Atlanta in that case).
  4. Thunder‘s first-round pick (to Timberwolves; top-14 protection)
    • The 45-33 Thunder are slightly better positioned than Minnesota to clinch a playoff spot, but that could change quickly — Oklahoma City has games against Golden State, Houston, and Miami on tap, and doesn’t hold a tiebreaker edge over most of the other Western Conference playoff contenders. I expect the Thunder to hang onto a playoff spot, but if they don’t, they’ll keep their 2018 first-rounder and owe their 2019 lottery-protected first-rounder to Minnesota. Interestingly, if the final playoff spot comes down to the Thunder and Wolves, Minnesota could end up with two first-round picks for 2018 or none.
  5. Bucks‘ second-round pick (to Nets if in 31-47 range; to Suns if in 48-60 range)
    • As is the case with their first-round pick, the Bucks’ second-round selection is right on the edge here, currently projected to be 45th or 46th. A strong finish for the Bucks could mean that second-rounder lands with Phoenix, but for now it seems more likely to head to Brooklyn.

Booker Says Talent Upgrade More Important Than New Coach

  • The Suns may have a new coach next season, but Devin Booker places a higher priority on who’s on the court than who’s running the team, relays Scott Bordow of The Arizona Republic. Booker believes coaching won’t be a concern if the talent level is upgraded. “I’ve had three coaches since I’ve been here and I’ve never blamed anything on one of the coaches as an individual,” Booker said. “I’ve had great relationships with all the coaches. I think the NBA just overall, when you need somebody to blame the first person that you go to is the coach. But at the end of the day you need the right players that match each other. Not just the best players. Chemistry helps.”
  • Booker refused to say if he stands by a statement he made in October that he would sign a five-year, $156MM extension if the Suns offered it this summer, Bordow adds in the same story. “I mean, that’s a whole other discussion,” Booker said. “A lot goes into that. When that time comes I’ll have to make a decision. … I’ve always said this is the place I want to be so if everything works out, yeah.”