Ayo Dosunmu

Washington, Williams, Thybulle Among RFAs Still Available

July 4th, 2023 at 1:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Of the eight free players on our list of top 50 free agents who have yet to reach new deals, five are restricted free agents. Those five restricted free agents are also the only ones still available at all (not including those coming off on two-way deals). Those players are as follows:

P.J. Washington (Hornets)
Grant Williams (Celtics)
Matisse Thybulle (Trail Blazers)
Ayo Dosunmu (Bulls)
Paul Reed (Sixers)

While I’m sure these five players would’ve preferred to agree to lucrative new contracts in the opening hours of free agency, it’s not necessarily an ominous sign that they’ve yet to line up new deals four days later. It can sometimes take a little longer for the market for restricted free agents to develop, but it doesn’t mean they won’t get paid.

A year ago, for instance, Deandre Ayton didn’t sign his maximum-salary offer sheet with the Pacers (which was quickly matched by the Suns) until July 14, two weeks after the start of free agency. Collin Sexton, who received a four-year, $71MM in a sign-and-trade deal that sent him to Utah as part of the Donovan Mitchell blockbuster, didn’t resolve his restricted free agency until September.

The same thing happens with a few restricted free agents just about every year. In 2021, RFAs like Josh Hart (three years, $38MM) and Lauri Markkanen (four years, $67MM) took multiple weeks to reach new contract agreements.

In other words, there’s still plenty of time for Washington, Williams, Thybulle, Dosunmu, and Reed to find deals they like.

Washington, Williams, and Thybulle, in particular, seem like good bets to cash in sooner or later. A report over the weekend indicated that Washington was drawing interest from multiple teams besides the Hornets. Williams has reportedly received interest from Charlotte and Dallas, with the Mavericks also said to be keeping an eye on Thybulle.

It would be a surprise if any of them had to settle for a below-market deal. It sounds like teams are still in the process of figuring out if an offer sheet will be an exercise in futility or if there’s a legitimate chance to pry away one of those players from his current club — and if so, what the price point would be.

There hasn’t been as much chatter about Dosunmu or Reed, but there haven’t been any red flags on either front. Their qualifying offers ($5.2MM for Dosunmu; $2.3MM for Reed) remain in place as one-year fallback options.

The Spurs are the one team that still has enough cap room to make a strong play for any of those top RFAs, if they so choose. The Rockets may also be able to offer more than the full mid-level, depending on how all their moves shake out, and teams below the tax apron are free to try to negotiate sign-and-trades.

It has become pretty rare for restricted free agents to change teams via offer sheets, but sign-and-trade deals aren’t uncommon — they get the player to his preferred landing spot while ensuring that his old team picks up an asset or two.

There are still several unrestricted free agents whose landing spots will be worth watching too, including Christian Wood, Kelly Oubre, Hamidou Diallo, Jaylen Nowell, and Dario Saric. But at this point in free agency, it’s the RFA market that looks more intriguing.

Bulls Sign Nikola Vucevic To Three-Year Extension

June 28th, 2023 at 3:12pm CST by Luke Adams

3:12pm: The Bulls have issued a press release officially announcing Vucevic’s extension.

“During his time in Chicago, Nikola has proven that he is a special player both on and off the court,” executive VP of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas said in a statement. “He has produced at an elite level since we acquired him and will remain an integral part of our foundation moving forward. Nikola’s willingness to do whatever is asked of him to help us win, while also being an established veteran leader for our group, makes him a valuable component of the culture of our organization. He is a consummate professional and tremendous teammate, which plays a big role in making us an attractive destination for other players. We are excited to have him continue to be part of our journey.”

2:42pm: The Bulls and Nikola Vucevic are nearing an agreement on a three-year, $60MM contract extension that would keep the veteran center off the free agent market, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Vucevic, 32, was acquired by the Bulls at the 2021 trade deadline in a deal with Orlando. Since arriving in Chicago, he has averaged 18.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game with a .492/.342/.812 shooting line in 181 total regular season appearances (33.2 MPG).

Vucevic isn’t an elite defender, but he’s a talented scorer and rebounder who has been remarkably consistent during his first two full seasons with the Bulls — he averaged 17.6 PPG, 11.0 RPG, and 3.2 APG in both 2021/22 and ’22/23.

Like fellow big man Naz Reid, Vucevic had been extension-eligible this season, so he didn’t have to wait to reach the open market this weekend if his goal was to re-up with his current team.

The Bulls were considered a good bet to reach a new deal with Vucevic before or during free agency for multiple reasons. For one, their guaranteed contracts and the cap holds for restricted free agents Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu would almost certainly make them an over-the-cap team with or without Vucevic on the books, so they wouldn’t have had a clear path to replace him at the same salary slot if they’d let him walk.

There has also been a sense, as Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports wrote today, that Chicago didn’t love the idea of letting Vucevic go after paying such a steep price to acquire him from the Magic two years ago. That trade netted Orlando a pair of lottery picks – Franz Wagner and Jett Howard – in addition to young center Wendell Carter.

Assuming they officially finalize an extension with Vucevic by the June 30 deadline, the Bulls can shift their focus to free agency, where they’re expected to re-sign guards White and Dosunmu, according to Fischer. A new deal for unrestricted free agent Patrick Beverley is also a possibility, Fischer adds.

The Bulls project to be about $27MM below the luxury tax line after signing Vucevic, tweets ESPN’s Bobby Marks, though that estimate could vary depending on the exact structure of Vucevic’s extension, as well as Andre Drummond‘s player option decision. Once he officially signs, Vucevic will become ineligible to be traded for six months.

Meanwhile, an already-thin group of free agent centers will take another hit with both Vucevic and Reid off the market. Jakob Poeltl and Brook Lopez are the headliners at the position, with veterans like Mason Plumlee and Dwight Powell among the solid second-tier targets for teams in need of size. However, there aren’t a lot of reliable veterans available beyond those top few guys.

Cameron Johnson, Coby White Among Players Receiving QOs

June 28th, 2023 at 7:28am CST by Luke Adams

A series of players have been issued qualifying offers by their respective teams, making them restricted free agents, according to RealGM’s official NBA transaction log.

Nets forward Cameron Johnson and Bulls guard Coby White are among the most notable QO recipients within the last couple days. Johnson’s qualifying offer is worth $8,486,620, while White’s is worth $7,744,600.

For many restricted free agents, qualifying offers essentially function as placeholders, giving the team the right of first refusal on the player as long as that QO remains on the table.

It’s also a one-year contract offer that the player is free to accept at any time, which is a more viable route for some RFAs than others — Johnson, for instance, looks like a safe bet to secure a lucrative multiyear deal, so it would be a major surprise if he simply accepted his $8.5MM qualifying offer.

Besides Johnson and White, here are some of the players who have received qualifying offers this week and are now restricted free agents, per RealGM:

Ayo Dosunmu, Bulls ($5,216,324)
Jock Landale, Suns ($2,219,706)
- Note: This is a projected amount. Landale’s QO will be worth $200K more than his minimum salary.
Trent Forrest, Hawks (two-way)
Terry Taylor, Bulls (two-way)
Collin Gillespie, Nuggets (two-way)
Jack White, Nuggets (two-way)
Kendall Brown, Pacers (two-way)
Moussa Diabate, Clippers (two-way)
Saben Lee, Suns (two-way)

The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is Thursday, so we’ll likely get many more updates on QOs being extended to players today and tomorrow.

Bulls Notes: Ball, Free Agency, White, Dosunmu, Jordan

June 23rd, 2023 at 1:24am CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

It doesn’t appear that the Bulls will be getting their starting point guard Lonzo Ball back anytime soon. In remarks made to reporters after Thursday’s draft, team president Arturas Karnisovas poured cold water on the idea that he could return to the hardwood in 2023/24 at all.

“Going into the offseason, our [expectation] is that he’s not coming back next season,” Karnisovas said, tweets Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic.

Since agreeing to a four-year, $80MM sign-and-trade deal with Chicago in the summer of 2021, Ball has appeared in a grand total of 35 contests for his new team.

If he so chooses, Karnisovas could opt to file for a disabled player exception. The exception would be worth half of Ball’s salary and would give the Bulls another tool to sign or trade for a replacement. It would only be granted if Ball is deemed more likely than not to remain sidelined through June 15, 2024.

There’s more out of the Windy City:

Speaking of free agency, Karnisovas indicated that he hopes to add more long range shooting to the Bulls’ spacing-challenged roster this summer, per K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. “We’re trying to change our shooting profile,” Karnisovas said. “Being last in the league in rate from 3 and 3-point makes, we’re going to try to address that in the offseason.”
According to Johnson, Karnisovas also indicated that Bulls ownership is amenable to entering the luxury tax in pursuit of improvement, something the team has only ever done once. The Bulls’ president of basketball operations also suggested that Chicago would extend qualifying offers to guards Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu, making them restricted free agents. White showed significant strides at the end of the 2022/23 season, and makes sense to retain. Dosunmu, meanwhile, regressed considerably during his second season, to the point where he became virtually unplayable in Chicago’s two play-in contests this spring, suiting up for an average of 5.5 MPG.
With former Hornets majority owner Michael Jordan in the midst of selling the franchise, it’s high time he bought a stake in the team where he became a Hall of Famer, opines Jon Greenberg of The Athletic. Jordan intends to continue to hold a minority stake in Charlotte for now, but Greenberg argues that the former Chicago shooting guard could divest from the Hornets to buy a solid share of his old team. As Greenberg notes, nowhere is Jordan more beloved than in the city where he cemented his legend, winning six titles in eight seasons while being widely heralded as the greatest player ever.

Bulls Notes: Dosunmu, Stars, White, Play-In History

April 6th, 2023 at 9:50pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Second-year Bulls guard Ayo Dosunmu is frustrated by his demotion to Chicago’s bench, but is trying to shine in his reserve role this year with the play-in tournament looming, writes Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. Cowley notes that Dosunmu had been averaging 30.6 minutes per night as recently as February, while logging 9.3 PPG, 3.3 APG, and 3.3 RPG.. Dosunmu’s output took a nosedive last month, when he averaged just 6.3 PPG, 1.9 APG, and 1.1 RPG in 19.8 MPG.

“Everybody is a competitor and wants to start; that’s just the reality of it,’’ Dosunmu said. “But at this time of the year, it’s all about trying to get as many wins as possible. You really don’t have any time to worry about anything other than that because in about a week, we’re pretty much going into a [play-in] situation where you either win or lose, and your season can be over with.”

“There will definitely be an offseason plan” for his development, Dosunmu added, “but my mindset is focused on these last few [regular-season] games, then doing whatever it takes to secure us a playoff spot.’’

As Cowley notes, there’s a chance Dosunmu will have to wait for his opportunity to start elsewhere. He’s a restricted free agent this summer, as is fellow reserve combo guard Coby White. The Bulls might opt to just keep one.

There’s more out of the Windy City:

While the Bulls are locked into the play-in tournament, head coach Billy Donovan would still like to see star players DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic participate in the club’s last game of the regular season against the Pistons, writes K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago.
Coby White believes that his game has reached another level as of late, writes Rob Schaefer of Bulls.com. “I think this is the best basketball of my career, high school, college,” White said. “I feel like, just overall — defensively, offensively, my voice, leadership, whatever you want to call it — I’ve taken steps in every category.”
Chicago hopes to make NBA play-in tournament history this season. A tenth seed has yet to win a play-in game in the two-year history of the tournament, Johnson writes in a separate article. “You’d obviously at this point like to be in a situation where you know you’re one of those top-six seeds where you’re not trying to get into the playoffs,” Donovan said. “But having a chance to get in would be the next thing you’d want to have.”

Bulls Notes: Drummond, Caruso, Free Agency, Dosunmu

April 1st, 2023 at 5:13pm CST by Arthur Hill

Andre Drummond returned to the Bulls on Friday night after spending a few days away for mental health reasons, writes K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. The veteran center made an immediate impact, grabbing 11 rebounds in 14 minutes in a win over Charlotte. After the game, he expressed thanks to his teammates for understanding his situation.

“Felt good to be back on the floor again,” Drummond said. “My guys rallied behind me, just gave me a lot of support when I came back in here. It definitely boosted my energy. I still have a lot to deal with, a lot to tackle in my own personal life. But it’s good to be back on the floor again.”

Drummond missed just one game during his absence, sitting out Wednesday’s contest against the Lakers for personal reasons. He’s averaging 6.7 rebounds in 12.8 minutes per night this season, and his board work will be needed for Chicago to advance past the play-in tournament.

There’s more on the Bulls:

Alex Caruso was able to play his second straight game Friday, but his sprained left foot remains a concern, according to Joe Cowley of The Chicago Sun-Times. The team is keeping Caruso away from contact during practices, and coach Billy Donovan pulled him from Wednesday’s game at halftime because the foot appeared to be bothering him. “Alex doesn’t complain,” Donovan said. “He doesn’t say anything. I can just tell, the way he’s moving. Alex will give everything he’s got. But he’s going to have to deal with this. It’s going to be an ongoing challenge for him the rest of the year. He tries to fight through it the best that he can.”
Luxury tax considerations will weigh heavily on the Bulls’ free agency decisions, Johnson states in a mailbag column. The tax line for next season is projected at $162MM, and the team already has about $111.5MM committed to six players. Drummond and Derrick Jones Jr. could raise that total to $118MM if they both pick up their player options. That leaves a limited amount to offer Nikola Vucevic and Coby White unless the front office can unload some other salaries.
Ayo Dosunmu has put up similar numbers to last season when he was considered a draft steal, but his impact hasn’t felt the same, Johnson adds. Dosunmu, White and Patrick Beverley will all be free agents this summer, and Johnson doesn’t expect all three to return.

Central Notes: Duren, Bagley III, Beverley, Dosunmu

March 19th, 2023 at 8:26pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Pistons faced the Heat on Sunday and it gave Jalen Duren an up-close lesson on how counterpart Bam Adebayo plays. The Pistons would like to see Duren emulates Adebayo’s approach, according to Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press.

“I was watching Bam even before I was in the league,” the Pistons’ rookie center said. “One of the guys I pay attention to, being a big guy who does a lot. You can talk about the skill factor, but I look at it from the standpoint of just affecting the game in more ways than one. Some guys just affect the game scoring, some guys affect it on the defensive end, which isn’t bad. But I feel like Bam is a guy who affects it all around in just terms of his hustle, his IQ, his defensive mindset, he can score it, his ability to connect the floor. That’s what I try to be.”

Duren left Sunday’s game with a head injury after a collision with Miami’s Kevin Love, Keith Langlois of Pistons.com tweets.

We have more from the Central Division:

Pistons forward Marvin Bagley III was not only back in action on Sunday, he was in the starting lineup, Langlois tweets. Bagley missed the previous three games with right ankle soreness. He scored 14 points.
Guard Patrick Beverley is averaging 6.5 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists since signing with the Bulls as a free agent. His impact has been far greater than his numbers, K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago writes. “I just love his presence, his competitiveness,” coach Billy Donovan said. “The way he comes in on a back-to-back telling guys, ‘We got to be ready to play.’ I love his message and disposition and the way he is every day. He has a great motor, great enthusiasm, loves the game and loves competing. I love being around him.”
Ayo Dosunmu needs to get his confidence back on the offensive end, Donovan told Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. With Beverley cutting into his playing time, Dosunmu has averaged just 5.1 points and 1.5 assists in 17.6 minutes per game this month. Dosunmu’s three-point percentage has dropped from 37.6 percent during his rookie campaign to 31.5 percent this season. “Ayo has always been really competitive defensively,” Donovan said. “His defense has gotten better from a year ago, but clearly his offense, he’s trying to figure some of those things out. I just think he has to go through it. He’s got to find himself out to the other side.’’

Bulls Notes: Ball, Replacements, DeRozan, Green

March 18th, 2023 at 7:38pm CST by Arthur Hill

There are concerns that Lonzo Ball might miss all of next season after deciding to undergo a cartilage transplant in his left knee. Bulls coach Billy Donovan didn’t offer a specific prognosis, but he admitted Ball is facing “a long rehab,” writes Andrew Seligman of The Associated Press.

“For me to say, ‘I have no hope that he’s ever gonna play here again’ or ‘Yeah, he’s definitely going to be back,’ I just don’t know,” Donovan told reporters on Friday.

The procedure will be the third for Ball on his left knee in the past 14 months. He hasn’t played since January of 2022, but Donovan said his work ethic and attitude haven’t changed.

“Even though he comes in, he’s around the team for a period of time, there is a lot of time that he’s away from everybody,” Donovan said. “Just having to come to grips of not playing is really, really hard, I think, probably for him to absorb. But he handles himself incredibly well. He’s so consistent all the time with his spirit and disposition and what he’s tried to do every step of the way to get back.”

There’s more from Chicago:

Ball’s latest setback will force the Bulls to address their point guard situation this summer, according to Darnell Mayberry of The Athletic, who adds that it’s hard to understand why the team wasn’t more aggressive in finding a replacement at the trade deadline. With no cap space and limited draft assets, the trade market appears to be the team’s best option. Mayberry notes that it’s now more likely that the Bulls will try to re-sign some combination of free agent guards Patrick Beverley, Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White.
DeMar DeRozan didn’t consider sitting out tonight’s game after playing 52 minutes and scoring 49 points in Friday’s double-overtime contest, per K.C. Johnson of NBC Sports Chicago. With 13 games remaining and the Bulls fighting for a play-in spot, DeRozan understands there’s no time for load management. “I hoop all summer for free,” he said. “Why not do it when you’re getting paid for it? I’m looking forward to it.”
Javonte Green is trending toward a return after missing more than two months following arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, Johnson tweets. Green was able to practice Friday with the Bulls’ G League affiliate, and Donovan said team doctors want to see how he responds to numerous practice sessions.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Central Division

March 1st, 2023 at 3:53pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Central players.

Brook Lopez, C, Bucks

2022/23: $13,906,976
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Lopez has been one of the NBA’s best stories this season, rebounding from a mostly lost season in 2021/22 after undergoing back surgery (he played just 13 regular season games and 12 playoff games). He’s having an outstanding year and has been a major factor in Milwaukee’s league-leading 44-17 record, averaging 14.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 2.4 BPG on .508/.370/.766 shooting through 60 games (30.3 MPG).

The veteran center, who is one of the leading candidates for Defensive Player of the Year, has said he hopes to remain with the Bucks, and the interest is reportedly mutual. Lopez has definitely earned a raise, but given his age (he turns 35 next month), I’d be a little surprised if he gets more than a two-year deal.

Khris Middleton, F, Bucks

2022/23: $37,948,276
2023/24: $40,396,552 (player option)
Stock: Down

Middleton’s stock is down primarily due to injuries, which have limited him to 20 games to this point. The Bucks have been very cautious with the three-time All-Star, as he’s been coming off the bench lately and averaging his fewest minutes per game (21.5) since he was a rookie. However, despite the small sample size, it’s worth noting that the Bucks have been terrific with Middleton on the court – he has a plus-9.7 net rating, per NBA.com.

A career 38.9% three-point shooter, Middleton is making just 29.9% from deep this season, which has hurt his offensive efficiency (the rest of his shooting numbers are very close to career norms). That seems more like an aberration than a long-term concern.

The remaining 21 regular season games and how he fares in the postseason will likely determine whether or not the 31-year-old decides to pick up his player option for ’23/24. Let’s not forget that Middleton averaged 23.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 5.1 APG and 1.5 SPG during Milwaukee’s championship run a couple years ago — I would not be surprised at all if he bounces back from a disappointing season over the next few months.

Ayo Dosunmu, G, Bulls

2022/23: $1,563,518
2023/24: RFA
Stock: Neutral

The 38^th pick of the 2021 draft, Dosunmu had a strong rookie campaign, earning a spot on the All-Rookie Second Team after averaging 8.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 3.3 APG on .520/.376/.679 shooting in 77 games (40 starts, 27.4 MPG).

His numbers have been quite similar in year two, with the 23-year-old averaging 9.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 2.8 APG on .498/.316/.806 shooting in 60 games (49 starts, 28.1 MPG). Obviously the three-point percentage is down, which is unfortunate, and he hasn’t necessarily progressed from a statistical standpoint like some second-year players do.

Advanced stats aren’t very high on Dosunmu, and the Bulls have been better by a pretty significant margin when he’s not on the court. While Dosunmu may not have made a second-year leap, I still like his defensive potential and he reportedly has a strong work ethic and team-first attitude.

Dosunmu met the starter criteria, so the value of his qualifying offer increased to $5,216,324. It will be interesting to see how his restricted free agency plays out.

Hamidou Diallo, G/F, Pistons

2022/23: $5,200,000
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Up

Diallo is challenging to evaluate because his strengths and weakness are more pronounced than most players. He is a non-shooting wing with pretty bad tunnel vision, which you would expect would make him ineffective in a league constantly looking for floor-spacers.

That isn’t the case. The 24-year-old is one of the most athletic players in the NBA and he plays with a tremendous amount of energy. He utilizes those strengths to play strong defense, crash the boards, drive, and catch lobs, and he’s been very effective at all of those things in ‘22/23.

The Pistons have an overall defensive rating of 117.6, which ranks 28^th in the league. When Diallo is on the court, Detroit has the equivalent of the league’s fourth-best defense. He is shooting a career-high 58.1% from the field in large part because he is converting 71.8% of his attempts at the rim, per DunksAndThrees.com – a better mark than many centers.

Sometimes Diallo’s energy carries over into recklessness. He fouls too much and can be turnover-prone. Even if his game is polarizing, I think he deserves a raise, perhaps a deal in the range of $6-10MM per year.

Oshae Brissett, F, Pacers

2022/23: $1,846,738
2023/24: UFA
Stock: Down

After averaging 9.6 PPG and 5.4 RPG on .428/.368/.716 shooting in 88 games (41 starts, 23.7 MPG) with Indiana from 2020-22, Brissett had an opportunity to establish himself as a reliable rotation player in a contract year. Unfortunately, that has not come to fruition.

The Pacers have been relatively weak at power forward all season. Brissett hasn’t helped much. He’s averaging 5.5 PPG and 3.4 RPG on .388/.333/.693 shooting in 49 games in ‘22/23, with his playing time cut back to 16.0 MPG. He has been a healthy scratch in seven of the last eight games.

Still just 24 years old, Brissett should land another (relatively small) deal in free agency — he’s a solid rebounder and defender. But those shooting numbers are a problem, and his stock is definitely down compared to the past couple seasons.

Checking In On RFAs-To-Be Who Have Met Starter Criteria

February 26th, 2023 at 10:49am CST by Luke Adams

As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.

A player drafted at No. 10 or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.

Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.

In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:

A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.

A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.

However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.

The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.

So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:

P.J. Washington, Hornets (60 starts)
Tre Jones, Spurs (52 starts)
Ayo Dosunmu, Bulls (49 starts)

Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.

As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.

Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:

Coby White, Bulls (top-14 pick)
Jaxson Hayes, Pelicans (top-14 pick)
Rui Hachimura, Lakers (top-14 pick)
Cameron Johnson, Nets (top-14 pick)
Romeo Langford, Spurs (top-14 pick)
Matisse Thybulle, Trail Blazers (No. 20 pick)
Grant Williams, Celtics (No. 22 pick)
Herbert Jones, Pelicans (second-round pick) *
Kenyon Martin Jr., Rockets (second-round pick) *
Naji Marshall, Pelicans (UDFA) *

(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)

White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.

Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.

It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.

Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.

Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.

Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.

With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.

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