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How 2020 All-NBA Picks Could Impact Contract Situations

April 29th, 2020 at 1:27pm CST by Luke Adams

All-NBA selections have become more important than ever in recent years, since teams can agree to increase the overall value of certain maximum-salary contracts based on whether or not a player has earned All-NBA honors in a given season.

Those higher max salaries are also available to players who win MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, but there’s only one of each of those awards per year. There are 15 All-NBA players annually, creating more opportunities for players to become eligible for those more lucrative contracts, informally known as “super-max” deals.

As we explain in our glossary entry on the “Designated Veteran Extension,” a player with between seven and nine years of NBA experience who meets certain contract criteria and hasn’t changed teams since the end of his rookie contract become eligible for a maximum salary worth 35% of the cap – instead of 30% – if he was named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.

Similar incentives are available for players coming off their rookie scale contracts, as noted in our glossary entry on the “Derrick Rose Rule.” Those players can earn max deals worth up to 30% of the cap instead of 25% if they were named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season, or in two of the last three seasons.

The differences between the various levels of maximum salaries can be substantial over the course of a long-term contract. For instance, in 2019/20, a five-year max contract that starts at 25% of the cap and includes 8% annual raises is worth just over $158MM. By comparison, a five-year deal that starts at 35% of the cap with 8% annual raises is worth over $221MM. A five-year contract at the 30% max falls in between, at about $190MM.

We don’t know yet what this year’s All-NBA teams will look like – or even when voting will take place – but as our informal polls last week showed, there are a number of candidates whose future earnings could be affected by whether or not they earn one of those 15 spots.

Let’s take a closer look at some of those players…

Players who have already qualified for super-max contracts:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
Rudy Gobert (Jazz)

Antetokounmpo and Gobert didn’t even need to rely on All-NBA spots to qualify for super-max contracts — Giannis’ MVP award last year and Gobert’s back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards in 2018 and 2019 secured their eligibility.

Because both players only had six years of experience entering the 2019/20 season, they had to wait one more year to be eligible to actually receive super-max extension offers, which would be worth 35% of the cap instead of 30%.

Antetokounmpo is a lock to receive such an offer from the Bucks, who have publicly said they’ll put it on the table as soon as they can. That was supposed to happen this July, but the NBA’s hiatus has thrown that timeline into flux. Whenever Milwaukee makes its offer, it would be for a five-year extension that would start in 2021/22 and be worth 35% of that season’s cap.

Gobert’s outlook is cloudier. He could also sign a five-year, 35% max-salary extension that would start in 2021/22, but he’s not at the same level of superstardom that Giannis is, so it remains to be seen how aggressive the Jazz will actually be in attempting to lock him up beyond next season.

Players whose already-signed rookie extensions would be impacted by an All-NBA selection:

Pascal Siakam (Raptors)
Ben Simmons (Sixers)

Siakam and Simmons signed maximum-salary rookie scale extensions with their respective teams last fall. Both contracts will go into effect in 2020/21 and both include Rose Rule language, meaning they’ll be among the players closely monitoring this year’s All-NBA results.

In our series of polls, Siakam earned a spot on the All-NBA Second Team. However, I think there’s a real possibility he could end up on the Third Team. Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Kawhi Leonard will likely receive more votes than Siakam. Anthony Davis will place higher than Siakam too if voters consider him a forward. And even if Davis is listed as a center, Jayson Tatum is among those who should give Siakam a strong push for that Second Team forward spot.

While Siakam might be satisfied to end up on any All-NBA team, a spot on the Second Team would be far more satisfying from a financial perspective. His deal calls for a starting salary worth 28% of the cap if he earns All-NBA Second Team honors, but just 25% if he makes the Third Team.

As we outlined in the fall, that difference would have been worth nearly $16MM over four years based on a $116MM cap. The cap is no longer expected to get that high, but even so, missing out on a Second Team spot would cost Siakam millions.

As for Simmons, he wasn’t one of the 15 players voted to an All-NBA team by Hoops Rumors readers, but he looks to me like a viable candidate for the Third Team. If he makes the Third Team, his starting salary would be 28% of next year’s cap, rather than the 25% he’d get if he doesn’t make an All-NBA squad. Those three percentage points would impact Simmons even more than they would Siakam over the life of their contracts, since Simmons’ five-year deal runs for an extra season and the amount of the annual raises are based on the starting salary.

Nuggets guard Jamal Murray also signed a rookie scale extension with Rose Rule language, but isn’t a realistic candidate for an All-NBA nod.

Players whose next contract could be impacted by an All-NBA selection this season:

Joel Embiid (Sixers)
Brandon Ingram (Pelicans)

If Embiid – who was voted onto Hoops Rumors’ All-NBA Third Team – earns an All-NBA spot this season after doing so last year, he’d be in the same position heading into 2020/21 that Antetokounmpo and Gobert were entering 2019 — he’d have qualified for a super-max extension, but wouldn’t yet be eligible to sign one.

Once the 2021/22 league year begins, Embiid would have seven years of NBA experience, with All-NBA nods in at least two of the last three years, making him eligible to sign a four-year super-max extension that would begin in 2023/24, with a starting salary worth 35% of the cap. Even if Embiid doesn’t make an All-NBA team this season, doing so next year would still make him eligible for that same deal.

As for Ingram, he’s a long shot to be named to an All-NBA team, but in the unlikely event that he is, he’d be eligible to sign for a starting salary of up to 30% of the cap on a new free agent contract with the Pelicans. No other team looking to sign him to an offer sheet could exceed 25% of the cap in that scenario.

Other players to start monitoring if they earn All-NBA honors this season:

Bam Adebayo (Heat)
Devin Booker (Suns)
Luka Doncic (Mavericks)
Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
Donovan Mitchell (Jazz)
Jayson Tatum (Celtics)
Trae Young (Hawks)

These players fall into a few separate sub-categories. Jokic and Booker, for instance, are in their fifth seasons and on their second NBA contracts. An All-NBA spot – which is far likelier for Jokic – would be a good start toward earning super-max eligibility, but they’d still have to make another All-NBA team in either 2021 or 2022 to become eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension in 2022.

Doncic, an All-NBA lock, and Young, a lesser candidate, are only in their second NBA seasons. If they were to make All-NBA teams this year and next, they’d be eligible to sign rookie scale extensions with starting salaries worth up to 30% of the cap during the 2021 offseason. Those deals would go into effect in 2022/23.

Adebayo, Mitchell, and Tatum are all in their third seasons and will be extension-eligible during the 2020 offseason. Earning an All-NBA spot this year actually wouldn’t do much for their Rose Rule eligibility — they’d still have to do it again in 2021 to qualify, since the criteria calls for an All-NBA berth in either the season before the new contract begins or in two of the three prior seasons.

Still, earning All-NBA honors this year would give those three players additional leverage to negotiate Rose Rule language into their potential rookie scale extensions, which would go into effect in 2021/22.

Strong All-NBA candidates who are notably ineligible for super-max contracts:

Bradley Beal (Wizards)
Anthony Davis (Lakers)

Beal was in position to qualify for a super-max extension if he had earned All-NBA honors this season, but the short-term contract extension he signed last October eliminated that possibility. By the time that extension expires, he’ll have 10 years of NBA experience and will be eligible for the 35% max anyway.

Davis has the right amount of NBA experience to gain eligibility and should be an All-NBA lock, but the fact that he changed teams last summer ensures he’ll no longer qualify for a Designated Veteran Contract this offseason — he missed out on the possibility of the super-max as soon as he left the Pelicans.

Various other All-NBA candidates won’t meet the super-max criteria for various reasons. Some, like James Harden, are already on a super-max contract. Others, such as LeBron James, already have 10+ years of experience and can’t qualify for a higher max than the 35% they already get. Recently changing teams (ie. Jimmy Butler) or signing new long-term deals (ie. Khris Middleton) also remove certain players from super-max contention.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Ben Simmons Expected To Return If Season Resumes

April 21st, 2020 at 9:24am CST by Luke Adams

Sixers guard Ben Simmons is expected to be ready to go if and when the 2019/20 season resumes, sources tell ESPN’s Jackie MacMullan.

When the NBA suspended its season last month, Simmons had been sidelined indefinitely due to a a nerve impingement in his back. On March 11, hours before word of Rudy Gobert‘s positive coronavirus test broke, the 76ers had announced that Simmons would be re-evaluated in three weeks. Now, nearly six weeks later, the team sounds pleased with the progress the former No. 1 pick has made in his recovery.

“If the season resumes,” a Sixers source told ESPN, “we’re expecting to have him.”

As MacMullan details, Philadelphia’s plan all along was to bring Simmons back for a handful of games at the end of the regular season so that he’d be ready to go for the playoffs. That plan was disrupted by the NBA’s stoppage, particularly since Simmons was required to self-quarantine for 14 days last month. However, he has been permitted to visit the club’s training facility for treatment since then, and has ramped up his rehab in recent weeks, per MacMullan.

“He’s feeling strong,” a member of Simmons’ camp told ESPN. “The original restrictions were very limiting, but all of them have been removed. He would probably need another scan, so the doctors could officially clear him, but there’s been no setbacks. He’s dying to get out there.”

Although the NBA’s hiatus could put Simmons in a better position to contribute to a Sixers postseason run, it may also adversely affect his future earnings. The All-Star guard, who signed a five-year extension last offseason, is set to receive a raise to the maximum salary beginning next season. But the exact value of the deal will depend on where the salary cap lands, and lost revenue from the stoppage will limit the league’s ability to substantially increase its cap.

Coronavirus Updates: EuroLeague, NBL, Bubble City, Salaries

April 18th, 2020 at 11:31am CST by Dana Gauruder

The deadline on whether to resume the EuroLeague and EuroCup seasons is the end of May, according to league president Jordi Bertomeu, Emiliano Carchia of Sportando tweets. The final decision will be made during the last two weeks of the month, Carchia adds. If play is resumed, it wouldn’t begin any later than July, Carchia adds in another tweet.

We have more coronavirus-related updates:

Players in Australia’s NBL have agreed to a tiered system of pay reductions, with players earning $200K or more receiving a 50% pay cut, Olgun Uluc of ESPN Australia reports. The minimum player salary of $60K will remain and those players making $80K or less won’t see a reduction. All players will have an opportunity during the two weeks leading up to free agency to opt out of their current contracts. However, each player’s NBL rights will be retained by their respective club, Uluc adds.
There’s hope that immediate family members would be able to accompany their NBA-playing relatives to Las Vegas if they NBA opts for “bubble” concept to resume the season, according to David Aldridge of The Athletic. By allowing close family members to join them, the desire to leave the city during the resumption of play would be eliminated, an unnamed player agent told Aldridge.
Players such as Ben Simmons and Pascal Siakam who signed rookie scale extensions last fall will have their pay reduced based on this season’s salary, not the first year of their extensions, Bobby Marks of ESPN notes. Players agreed to have 25% of their paychecks withheld beginning on May 15. Restricted free agents such as Brandon Ingram will also have their pay reductions come out of just their 2019/20 salary, not future earnings, Marks adds.

Ripple Effect Of Hiatus On Contracts, Cap, Offseason Dates

March 18th, 2020 at 10:02am CST by Luke Adams

Given the typically rigid nature of the NBA’s annual calendar, the current hiatus threatens to complicate a number of dates and deadlines that will arrive in the coming months. In his latest Insider-only article for ESPN.com, Bobby Marks takes a closer look at how those dates – linked to contracts and the salary cap – may be impacted, noting that the NBA and NBPA are expected to collectively bargain a set of transition rules once the league establishes a return timeline.

For instance, there are 29 player options and 12 team options that are currently scheduled to be exercised or declined before the end of June. Those dates will almost certainly have to be adjusted. The same goes for certain salary guarantee dates and the expiry dates on traded player exceptions, as Marks explains. Of course, the start of the 2020/21 league year will have to be pushed back too, so players with expiring contracts don’t become free agents on July 1.

Contract incentives will also be an issue worth keeping an eye on. Marks observes that during the lockout-shortened 2011/12 season, players’ incentives were prorated based on the fact that the league played 66 games instead of 82 games. The NBA could take similar measures this season. For instance, if a player needs to play 1,000 minutes to earn a bonus and his team ends up playing just 70 of 82 games, his incentive requirement would be adjusted so he only needs to play 70/82nds of 1,000 minutes (854 minutes).

Marks’ article is jam-packed with interesting info and is worth checking out in full if you have an Insider subscription. Here are a few more highlights:

Although the NBA’s basketball related income for 2019/20 is projected to take a huge hit as a result of this hiatus and the controversy with China in the fall, it’s too early to say what that will mean for the 2020/21 salary cap, according to Marks. In situations like this, the NBA and NBPA generally negotiate in good faith a cap adjustment that satisfies both sides, so we’re unlikely to see a big drop-off next year.
Still, with the cap for the next year or two no longer expected to increase by nearly as much as the NBA initially projected, the ripple effect could be significant. Maximum-salary contract extensions scheduled to go into effect next season or in 2021/22 for players like Jamal Murray, Ben Simmons, Pascal Siakam, and Damian Lillard won’t be as lucrative as previously estimated, and teams will no longer have as much cap or tax flexibility as expected. As Marks points out, that could influence players with option decisions — they may be more inclined to opt in for ’20/21, with less leaguewide spending power available in the offseason.
Resuming the regular season – rather than just jumping straight to the playoffs – may not be a top priority for many fans, but there are reasons why the NBA won’t want to skip that step, Marks writes. Teams that wanted to make roster moves prior to the postseason wouldn’t get a chance to do so if the NBA moves straight from its current moratorium to the playoffs. For example, in that scenario, the Thunder wouldn’t get the opportunity to convert two-way player Luguentz Dort to their 15-man roster. As such, the NBA may want to play a few regular season games or at least give teams a few days to make necessary roster moves.

Ben Simmons To Be Re-Evaluated In Three Weeks

March 11th, 2020 at 1:15pm CST by Jovan Alford

All-Star point guard Ben Simmons is making progress in his rehab from a lower back injury and will be re-evaluated in three weeks, according to a press release from the 76ers,

Simmons was diagnosed with a nerve impingement in his back just over two weeks ago after going through a series of X-rays and MRIs.

The star point guard missed the team’s Feb. 20 contest against the Nets, then tried to play a couple of days later against the Bucks. However, he aggravated the injury further, only playing five minutes before being taken out. A report last week suggested Philadelphia is hoping to get Simmons back before the start of the postseason.

This season, Simmons is averaging 16.9 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 8.3 assists in 54 games. In his absence, the 76ers have struggled on both ends of the floor, losing recently to the Warriors, 118-114, to wrap up their four-game Western Conference road trip.

The Sixers have had second-year point guard Shake Milton, Raul Neto, and Alec Burks share the ball-handling duties in Simmons’ absence.

Sixers Notes: Simmons, Embiid, Horford, GRIII

March 6th, 2020 at 11:13am CST by Luke Adams

While Sixers center Joel Embiid has a chance to return from his shoulder injury within the next week, sources tell ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne that Ben Simmons‘ recovery timeline is harder to pin down. Simmons, who is dealing with a nerve impingement in his lower back, will be re-evaluated next week.

As Shelburne explains, the Sixers are waiting for the inflammation around Simmons’ nerve to subside. The club is hoping to get him back before the end of the season so he can get his feet under him again before the playoffs. But at this point, that’s “just a hope,” given the uncertainty surrounding the injury, Shelburne writes.

Here’s more on the 76ers:

Shelburne’s ESPN article on the Sixers’ up-and-down season is worth reading in full, with head coach Brett Brown, GM Elton Brand, and big man Al Horford among those providing quotes. Brown, notably, expressed plenty of confidence that Embiid and Simmons are capable of not just co-existing and thriving, but of winning a title together. “I know these guys,” Brown said. “It’s like how my wife knows when my kids are going to get sick about two days before they get sick. When you’re a parent, you know your kids. And so I look at these two guys and I know they can win together. They can and they will.”
In the wake of a report suggesting the 76ers may explore trading Horford in the offseason, Chris Mannix of SI.com asked a veteran NBA executive about the possibility. “I would be shocked if he has value,” the exec said of Horford. “They might have to include an asset for someone to take him off their books. He has not looked good this year. His movement, it just seems a step slow, on both ends. I think they have to try to trade him. He obviously can’t play with Embiid. The goal should be to divide that salary over a couple of players and make them deeper. But I don’t know how they are going to do that.”
Glenn Robinson III, who expressed some confusion last week about what role the Sixers wanted him to play, is feeling a little better about his place in the rotation these days. As Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer writes, Robinson showed on Tuesday why the 76ers traded for him, scoring 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting. He said after the game that he’s continuing to “get a feel for my teammates.”

Atlantic Notes: Rose, Ntilikina, Richardson, Simmons, Nets

March 2nd, 2020 at 9:17pm CST by Dana Gauruder

New Knicks president of basketball operations Leon Rose is asking their long-suffering fans for more patience. Rather than holding a press conference, Rose instead issued a letter to the team’s fans which was posted by the team’s PR department (Twitter links here). “Nothing about this is easy, or quick, so I ask for your continued patience,” Rose wrote in part. “What I promise you in return is that I will be honest and forthright.” Rose also pointed out the team has young talent, significant future assets and financial flexibility to make moves.

We have more from the Atlantic Division:

Knicks guard Frank Ntilikina was previously represented by Rose before switching to Bouna Ndiaye last year and has high praise for the team’s new boss, Peter Botte of the New York Post relays. “He’s a good guy. We can trust him, I think,” Ntilikina said. “We all want what’s the best for the team. Leon is an expert in his job. He knows what he’s doing. He was a great agent and I’m sure he’s going to do great things here.”
Sixers guard Josh Richardson is in the league’s concussion protocol and won’t play against the Lakers on Tuesday, Derek Bodner of The Athletic tweets. His status for the remaining games on the team’s road trip will be updated at a later date, Bodner adds.
Sixers guard Ben Simmons shouldn’t have played against Milwaukee when he reaggravated a back ailment, Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer argues. The All-Star experienced lower-back tightness while grabbing a rebound during the team’s first practice after the All-Star break. He tried to come back that weekend against the Bucks and departed in the first quarter. He’ll miss at least two weeks.
Coach Kenny Atkinson tried to stir up the slumping Nets with a long, difficult practice on Monday, Brian Lewis of the New York Post reports. Brooklyn has dropped into eighth place in the East. “You’ve got to get a little uncomfortable when you’re not doing well. I think that’s part of the philosophy. You’ve got to feel that,” Atkinson said. “It’s great having days like this, two days in between, allows you to really practice and get some things done.”

Injury Notes: Dedmon, Simmons, Powell, Williams

February 27th, 2020 at 2:50pm CST by Luke Adams

New Hawks center Dewayne Dedmon underwent a non-surgical procedure to address pain in his right elbow today, as Chris Kirschner of The Athletic relays (via Twitter). Atlanta has ruled out Dedmon for its next three games, but he’ll be re-evaluated on Monday, with his status updated at that point, Kirschner adds.

The Hawks are also without another newly-acquired center, Clint Capela, who continues to deal with a foot issue. However, the club has no shortage of options in the middle. With Dedmon and Capela sidelined, Atlanta figures to take a longer look at Damian Jones and Bruno Fernando.

Here are a few more injury-related updates from around the NBA:

The Sixers haven’t provided many details or a specific recovery timeline for Ben Simmons‘ back injury, so Rich Hofmann of The Athletic spoke to a pair of outside medical experts to try to get a sense of what may be causing the nerve impingement in Simmons’ back. Both doctors suggested that the most common cause would be a disc injury.
Raptors swingman Norman Powell (finger) has been cleared to practice and will be listed as questionable for Friday’s game vs. Charlotte, tweets Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca. Head coach Nick Nurse had said on Tuesday that Powell was scheduled for a check-up next week, but it sounds like the 26-year-old could make it back this weekend.
Appearing today on Toucher and Rich in Boston, Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said big man Robert Williams (hip) remains on track to return to action as early as this weekend, or shortly thereafter (Twitter link via Chris Forsberg of NBC Sports Boston).
Pelicans forward Kenrich Williams, who hasn’t played since January 6 due to a back injury, had his first full-contact practice today and has a chance to play on Friday, per head coach Alvin Gentry (Twitter link via ESPN’s Andrew Lopez).

Ben Simmons To Miss At Least Two Weeks

February 25th, 2020 at 3:44pm CST by Luke Adams

Sixers star Ben Simmons has been diagnosed with nerve impingement in his lower back and will be re-evaluated in about two weeks, sources tells Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).

According to Charania (via Twitter), Simmons, who consulted with multiple in-house and external specialists, will undergo daily treatment and rehab. Although Simmons will be re-evaluated in two weeks, the team isn’t expecting him to be ready to return by that point, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (via Twitter). The two-week mark is more of an initial benchmark date than a target return date, Woj adds (via Twitter).

Simmons aggravated the injury during Saturday’s loss in Milwaukee and sat out on Monday vs. Atlanta. A two-week absence would cost Simmons at least six more games, including road showdowns with the Clippers and Lakers, and it sounds like he’ll remain on the shelf for even longer than that.

With Simmons out, the Sixers figure to lean more heavily on Alec Burks, Josh Richardson, and Shake Milton when it comes to ball-handling duties. Backup point guard Raul Neto should also move up on the depth chart, though he didn’t play at all on Monday. Philadelphia could also explore the buyout market for another ball-handler, but the club would have to waive a player to make room on its 15-man roster.

The 76ers are currently in the midst of a race for home-court advantage in the first round of the postseason. At 36-22, they hold the No. 5 seed in the East, just a half-game back of the 36-21 Heat.

Eastern Notes: Simmons, Johnson, TLC, Bacon

February 24th, 2020 at 5:07pm CST by Dana Gauruder

It remains unclear how long Ben Simmons‘ back injury will sideline him but it’s not a day-to-day thing, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN tweets. The Sixers star departed early in the team’s matchup with Milwaukee on Saturday when his back flared up.

Simmons is still undergoing treatment and evaluation and a course of action will be decided upon soon, Wojnarowski adds. Sixers head coach Brett Brown will use a committee approach at point guard in Simmons’ absence, Tim Bontemps of ESPN tweets.

We have more from around the Eastern Conference:

The Cavaliers were interested in former NBA coach Avery Johnson prior to hiring John Beilein last spring, Chris Crouse of Heavy.com reports. Johnson, the former head coach of the Mavericks and Nets, most recently coached the University of Alabama. Cleveland’s interest in Johnson dated back to the 2018 offseason but the Cavs are now committed to J.B. Bickerstaff, who replaced Beilein after the All-Star break.
Swingman Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot could be the Nets’ latest reclamation project, Brian Lewis of the New York Post writes. D’Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie and Joe Harris blossomed in the organization and Luwawu-Cabarrot could join that list. After signing him to a multi-year contract, they’re looking for him to be a sparkplug off the bench. “They gave me that role and I embrace it: I love it,” Luwawu-Cabarrot told Lewis. “I love. to go out there and compete and play super-hard.”
Dwayne Bacon may be shuttling between the Hornets and their Greensboro G League affiliate quite a bit, Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer tweets. The club wants him to get more reps but will need him at times for depth at the NBA level, according to coach James Borrego. Bacon, a third-year guard, is averaging 5.7 PPG in 17.6 MPG over 39 games with Charlotte this season, including 11 starts.