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Potential 2018 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 10th, 2018 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.

Jabari Parker (Bucks)
Dante Exum (Jazz)
Nik Stauskas (Nets)
Noah Vonleh (Bulls)
Doug McDermott (Mavericks)
Zach LaVine (Bulls)

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.

Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.

Elfrid Payton (Suns)
Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers)
Clint Capela (Rockets)
Kyle Anderson (Spurs)

Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.

Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this year.

Yogi Ferrell (Mavericks)

Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.

The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

RFA Rumors: Parker, Gordon, Exum, Smart, Randle

March 30th, 2018 at 12:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Only about a quarter of the NBA’s teams are expected to have meaningful cap room this summer, so restricted free agents hoping for a major payday could have a tough summer, writes Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders. Last week, we identified eight RFAs we believe have positioned themselves well for long-term contracts, and while we’re still bullish on those players, the RFA market may not be as active overall as it has been in some previous offseasons.

Within his latest piece, Kyler took a closer look at a few specific 2018 restricted free agents, so let’s round up some highlights from his breakdown…

Most NBA insiders believe the Bucks will ultimately retain Jabari Parker, according to Kyler, who suggests that – with a new arena on the way – Bucks ownership may not be as worried about the rising cost of team salary as you’d expect.
The Bucks and Magic may let the market drive the respective prices on Parker and Aaron Gordon, according to Kyler. With Orlando’s new management group looking to shed cap dollars, the team will be wary of overpaying Gordon. Kyler also notes that the Magic could be open to the possibility of a sign-and-trade if Gordon wants to play elsewhere. However, sign-and-trades can be particularly tricky to pull off for RFAs getting big raises due to the Base Year Compensation rule, so that may be a long shot.
The prevailing thought on Dante Exum is that he’ll be back with the Jazz, though likely not on a long-term deal, says Kyler.
In order to pry Marcus Smart away from the Celtics, it might take an offer sheet at least in the range of $12-14MM per year, per Kyler.
The Kings are worth watching as a possible suitor for Lakers big man Julius Randle, though many people expect the Mavericks to be the team “on Randle’s doorstep” when free agency opens on July 1, Kyler writes.
Clint Capela (Rockets), Zach LaVine (Bulls), Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers), and Rodney Hood (Cavaliers) are among the RFAs considered more likely than not to stay with their current teams, according to Kyler. For more details on those players – along with an item on Suns guard Elfrid Payton – be sure to check out Kyler’s full piece.

Northwest Notes: Exum, Nuggets, Wolves, Turner

March 28th, 2018 at 3:18pm CST by Luke Adams

Point guard Dante Exum has played in just 72 games since his rookie year, having had to deal with injuries in each of the last three seasons. He’s healthy now, and playing regular backup minutes for the Jazz, but he’s on track for restricted free agency this summer, and one general manager tells Sean Deveney of The Sporting News that it may be worth rolling the dice on Exum despite his injury history.

“I think you have to look at him as a physically gifted guy who is only 22 (he turns 23 in July) and has already gone through the huge NBA learning curve,” the GM said. “There are guys in this year’s draft who will be 22 but aren’t going to have the kind of knowledge of the league he has, and don’t have the physical gifts.”

According to Deveney, one front office executive estimated that a two-year deal in the $18-20MM range might be enough to pry Exum away from the Jazz. That would be a steep price for a fourth-year player who has yet to deliver on the promise he showed heading into the 2014 draft, but overpaying a restricted free agent is often necessary to avoid having his old team match.

“He’s a gamble,” that same executive told Deveney. “But $10MM a year is not as big a gamble as it once was. He could show something here.”

Here’s more from around the Northwest division:

With the G League’s regular season over, players on two-way contracts are no longer limited to 45 days of NBA service time. That’s good news for Nuggets two-way player Torrey Craig, who is free to travel with and play for the NBA squad, and hopes to make a strong impression down the stretch, per Gina Mizell of The Denver Post. “Just show them that I can be a consistent, impactful player on both ends of the court and just try to fit in wherever I can and play a role,” Craig said of his goals for the rest of the season.
The Nuggets had been hoping to get injured guard Gary Harris back on Friday, but he’s now doubtful for that game, and is aiming for a Sunday return, per head coach Mike Malone (Twitter link via Harrison Wind of BSNDenver.com).
In a mailbag for The Athletic, Jon Krawczynski examines Karl-Anthony Towns‘ future extension, Nemanja Bjelica‘s upcoming free agency, and more Timberwolves-related topics.
Trail Blazers swingman Evan Turner was fined $10K for making an “inappropriate gesture” during Sunday’s game against Oklahoma City, the NBA announced in a press release.

Injury Notes: Leonard, Hayward, Irving, Exum

March 15th, 2018 at 1:54pm CST by Luke Adams

The Kawhi Leonard situation in San Antonio continues to be a baffling one. Asked today if Leonard has increased his three-on-three work or been upgraded to five-on-five play, Spurs point guard Tony Parker replied, “I have no idea. He isn’t practicing with us,” per Tom Orsborn of The San Antonio Express-News. Parker also wondered aloud if Leonard might be nearing a point of no return for this season.

“We have what 14, games left? So it’s getting closer and closer that at some point it makes no sense (to bring him back),” Parker said of his Spurs teammate. “He didn’t play for like two or three months. He didn’t play for eight months, technically.”

While we wait to see if Leonard can make him back for the final few weeks of the 2017/18 season, let’s round up a few more injury notes and updates from across the NBA….

Appearing today on Toucher & Rich on 98.5 The Sports Hub in Boston, Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said that Gordon Hayward is back on track in his recovery from ankle surgery after suffering a setback recently. “He had like one setback for a couple of weeks, maybe a month and a half ago. We were progressing a little bit too fast, we thought,” Ainge said, per ESPN’s Chris Forsberg. “But, other than that, his work ethic and his determination have been amazing. … I don’t want to get people’s hopes up. He still is not back on the basketball court and we have a month left in the regular season. He’s got a ways to go but we’re excited about his progress and his determination.”
During that same radio appearance, Ainge said that Kyrie Irving may need to undergo a surgical procedure on his knee at some point. However, the Celtics president made that surgery sound anything but urgent, writes Forsberg. “He has a surgery that may need to happen,” Ainge said of Irving. “But maybe not this summer, maybe the following summer or maybe the summer after that. I think that he could probably do it any time he wanted, but I’m not sure that it’s needed at this moment.”
After missing the first 68 games of the season with a shoulder injury, point guard Dante Exum will be available on Thursday night, the Jazz announced (via Twitter). Exum likely won’t play a major role for Utah, but with Raul Neto sidelined due to a fractured wrist, the former No. 5 overall pick should get a chance to see some action.

NBA G League Assignments/Recalls: 3/14/18

March 14th, 2018 at 9:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Here are Wednesday’s G League assignments and recalls from around the NBA:

9:00 pm:

The Pacers have recalled Alex Poythress from the Fort Wayne Mad Ants, according to the team’s website. The Kentucky product has played in seven G League games this season where he averaged 20.0 points and 8.9 rebounds per game.

4:56 pm:

For the second consecutive day, the Jazz sent Dante Exum to the G League and then recalled him later in the day, the team announced in a press release. The former fifth overall pick is preparing for his return from a shoulder injury by practicing with the Salt Lake City Stars.
The Lakers have assigned rookie big man Thomas Bryant to the G League, according to the club (Twitter link). Bryant, who has averaged 19.2 PPG and 7.5 RPG in 32 G League games this season, is expected to suit up for the South Bay Lakers on Thursday night when they host the Agua Caliente Clippers.
Chris McCullough, who had been playing for the Northern Arizona Suns, was recalled today by the Wizards and then re-assigned to the Erie BayHawks, according to the team. Washington doesn’t have a G League affiliate of its own this season, so McCullough is eligible to play for other G League squads via the flexible assignment rule.

Northwest Notes: Exum, Blazers, Grant, Butler

March 14th, 2018 at 3:32pm CST by Luke Adams

With Dante Exum just about ready to make his 2017/18 debut, Tony Jones of The Salt Lake Tribune takes a look at what the Jazz should expect from the former No. 5 pick down the stretch. While Exum’s role will likely hinge on how he plays in his first couple games back, he has looked good in practice, according to head coach Quin Snyder (link via Eric Woodyard of The Deseret News).

As Jones notes, Utah could initially have Exum share ball-handling duties with Donovan Mitchell or Joe Ingles when he’s on the court if he’s not 100% ready to run the team’s offense. However, all indications are that the Jazz have confidence in the fourth-year guard and view him as a piece of their future.

Exum will be eligible for restricted free agency this offseason, and given how injuries have hampered his development, a big-time payday seems unlikely. That could work out well for the Jazz, who “certainly” would like to keep him on the roster long-term, writes Jones.

Here’s more from around the Northwest:

After signing Wade Baldwin to a rest-of-season contract earlier this week, the Trail Blazers remain $232K below the luxury tax line, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Twitter link). That means Portland can fill its 15th roster spot with another veteran without becoming a taxpaying team, which is good news if the Blazers want to add depth for the postseason.
In his second season with the Thunder, Jerami Grant has been able to focus on his close-range game rather than being relied upon to space the floor. As Erik Horne of The Oklahoman details, Grant is enjoying his best offensive season as a result, averaging 10.6 PPG on .576/.355/.605 shooting since Andre Roberson went down in January. The 24-year-old will be an unrestricted free agent for the first time this summer, so he has shown signs of improvement at the right moment.
Timberwolves head coach Tom Thibodeau said that Jimmy Butler is “moving along pretty well” in his rehabilitation from knee surgery, according to Jerry Zgoda of The Star Tribune. Minnesota’s star forward isn’t jumping yet, but has been running on an antigravity treadmill, Zgoda adds. A February report on Butler’s recovery timetable estimated that he’d miss four to six weeks — we’ll reach the three-week mark this Sunday.

NBA G League Assignments/Recalls: 3/13/18

March 13th, 2018 at 9:50pm CST by Luke Adams

Here are Tuesday’s G League assignments and recalls from around the NBA:

9:50 pm:

After assigning him earlier today (as noted below), the Jazz have recalled Exum from the Salt Lake City Stars, according to Eric Woodyard of the Deseret News (Twitter link). Woodyard added that the former No. 5 overall pick could play for Utah at some point this week.

3:05 pm:

The Jazz have assigned point guard Dante Exum to the G League, the team announced today in a press release. Exum, who has missed the entire 2017/18 season due to a shoulder injury, is aiming to return to the court later this week, so he’s participating in a practice with the Salt Lake City Stars as part of his rehab process.
The Nets have recalled Isaiah Whitehead from the G League, tweets Brian Lewis of The New York Post. Whitehead, who has seen far more action in the NBAGL this season than in the NBA, racked up 27 points on Sunday in his most recent game with the Long Island Nets.

Dante Exum Aiming To Return This Week

March 12th, 2018 at 6:41pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Jazz point guard Dante Exum is expected to return to action at some point this week, league sources informed Tony Jones of The Salt Lake Tribune (Twitter link).

It’s been another injury-marred season for Exum, who was viewed as the Jazz’s long-term solution at point guard when they drafted him No. 5 overall in 2014. Exum suffered a separated left shoulder and ligament damage during a preseason game in early October.

Exum underwent surgery later that month and began non-contact basketball activities in mid-January. He’s made steady progress since that point and his expected return comes at a good time. Raul Neto suffered a left wrist fracture over the weekend and will miss multiple weeks. Exum could fill the No. 3 point guard role behind Ricky Rubio and Donovan Mitchell.

Exum appeared in 66 regular-season games a year ago, averaging 6.2 PPG and 1.7 APG in 18.6 MPG. Exum will be a restricted free agent this summer if the team extends a $6.62MM qualifying offer. Otherwise, he’ll be unrestricted.

Exum missed the entire 2015/16 season after tearing his left ACL.

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Utah Jazz

February 9th, 2018 at 8:39pm CST by Austin Kent

The Jazz have done an admirable job turning what appeared to be a lost season into a competitive campaign. Thanks in no small part to the emergence of super rookie Donovan Mitchell, the future is as bright if not brighter than it was in Utah prior to Gordon Hayward‘s departure.

The Jazz sit within reach of the Western Conference playoff picture and just added one of the league’s best bargain small forwards for good measure. Given that the club’s books are in good shape for a potential playoff squad – they have just $89MM committed for next season – a smart offseason could get them close to where they left off in 2016/17.

Dante Exum, PG, 22 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $16.3MM deal in 2014
It’s hard not to be bearish on the former lottery pick considering that he’s missed all or most of two of his four professional seasons with injuries. Still just 22 years old, however, it’s likely that the restricted free agent will intrigue at least one other team around the Association. The Jazz don’t have much reason to match a lofty deal if he lands one but they may be receptive to an affordable, short-term reunion to see if they can get a better idea of what his actual ceiling is. Much of Exum’s value will be shaped by how he looks when he comes back from his shoulder injury in mid-to-late March.

Derrick Favors, C, 26 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $47MM deal in 2014
Favors went from being one of the game’s intriguing young big men to a bit player on a Jazz team that emerged as a surprise contender in the Western Conference. This season, the club has seen more out of the 26-year-old than it has in years, thanks largely in part to Rudy Gobert‘s two long-term absences. It may be inevitable that Favors isn’t a good fit next to Gobert but until head coach Quin Snyder exhausts each and every possibility for incorporating both, Favors could actually be a bargain this summer considering how drastically the narrative around him has changed. Favors isn’t a franchise cornerstone as the contract extension he inked in 2013 implied but he’s an above average starter that, in today’s climate, deserves eight digits.

Raul Neto, PG, 26 (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $3.4MM deal in 2015
The Jazz have incorporated Neto into their rotation this season and gotten modest production in return. While it’s hard to imagine they’ll face much competition from other teams when he hits restricted free agency, it’s conceivable to picture him back in Utah as a cheap third stringer. Don’t expect the club to compromise its roster or cap flexibility in order to retain him but he’s a solid option with which to round out the roster.

Derrick Rose, PG, 29 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2.1MM deal in 2017
The Jazz are expected to give Rose a buyout after acquiring him in the Rodney Hood deal at the trade deadline. Even if the club had no intention of buying him out though, it’s slim to none that he’d land back in Utah given their depth at the point and the culture already in place within the organization. Can the banged up husk of a former MVP attract attention on the open market? Yes, of course, but the guard’s inconsistent motivation to even continue playing at all will be the limiting factor.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Jazz Notes: Favors, Sefolosha, Exum

January 18th, 2018 at 3:29pm CST by Austin Kent

The Jazz have been charged with the task of growing and developing their way into the postseason all over again, Gordon Monson of The Salt Lake Tribune writes. All things considered, they’re off to a decent start.

The scribe offers up a scathing critique of how Gordon Hayward handled his exit from Utah, suggesting that Hayward left the team out in the cold, unlike ex-Pacers star Paul George, who at least gave Indiana’s front office a clear heads up that he had an interest in leaving.

While Monson sheds light on a handful of the assets on board in Utah, from trade candidate Derrick Favors to underwhelming fourth-year forward Rodney Hood, he also places some blame on general manager Dennis Lindsey for not having a better read on the Hayward situation prior to last offseason.

Of course the best thing going for the Jazz is their core duo of Rudy Gobert and rookie Donovan Mitchell. Everything will revolve around those two players, Monson says — that’s a particularly intriguing thought for Utah, considering that Gobert is just 25 years old while Mitchell is 21.

There’s more from the Jazz today:

As the trade deadline draws closer, Derrick Favors is hearing his name pop up in more and more speculation. The 26-year-old has managed to successfully tune out the conversation thus far, Eric Woodyard of The Deseret News writes.
In the same feature for The Deseret News, Woodyard reports that forward Thabo Sefolosha‘s knee surgery went successfully on Wednesday.
After being cleared for non-contact basketball activities, Jazz guard Dante Exum has set his sights on returning to action after the All-Star Break, Tony Jones of The Salt Lake Tribune writes. Exum damaged ligaments in his shoulder during preseason.