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Duncan Robinson First 2021 RFA To Meet Starter Criteria

January 14th, 2021 at 3:00pm CST by Luke Adams

Heat sharpshooter Duncan Robinson became the first potential restricted free agent in the 2021 class to meet the “starter criteria” earlier this week, increasing the value of his qualifying offer.

As we explain in our glossary entry, a restricted free-agent-to-be is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency, or if he averages 2,000 minutes or 41 starts per season in the two years before his free agency. If a non-lottery pick reaches the starter criteria, the value of his qualifying offer increases; if a lottery pick fails to meet it, the value of his QO decreases.

Because the NBA was unable to play a full season in 2019/20 and only has a 72-game schedule on tap for ’20/21, the thresholds for the starter criteria have been prorated downward. According to ESPN’s Bobby Marks, the criteria will vary from player to player, since it’s now based on games played by his team prior to the hiatus in ’19/20, as well as the 72-game schedule for this season.

For instance, the Heat played 65 games before the coronavirus stoppage last season and will play 72 games this season, for a total of 137 contests. Robinson needed to start at least half of those games (68.5) to meet the starter criteria.

Having started the first nine games of this season, Robinson is technically up to 77 starts over the last two years, but eight of those came in Miami’s summer seeding games and don’t count toward the starter criteria. As such, his 69th start of the last two seasons – which pushed him above the starter criteria threshold – came on Tuesday vs. Philadelphia.

Having met the starter criteria, Robinson – who came into the league as an undrafted free agent – will now be in line for a qualifying offer worth $4,736,102 (equivalent to what the 21st pick would receive if he signed for 100% of his rookie scale amount) instead of $2,122,822.

That bump likely won’t be all that important for Robinson, who figures to sign a lucrative multiyear deal that far exceeds that amount. However, the difference between a standard QO and the starter criteria QO could have a major impact on certain players.

Last season, for example, Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer remained at $7.09MM instead of falling to $4.64MM. The Bulls subsequently opted not to extend him that QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he left for the Hawks, signing a new contract with a per-year value ($5MM) in between those two figures. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, the Bulls may have been more comfortable issuing that QO and his free agency could have played out a whole lot differently.

While Robinson is the first player to reach the starter criteria this season, he won’t be the last. RFAs-to-be like Devonte’ Graham, Jarrett Allen, Lonzo Ball, Lauri Markkanen, and John Collins are in position to get there soon if they stay healthy and remain in their teams’ respective starting lineups. Kendrick Nunn isn’t far off either, having started 62 games for Miami before last season’s hiatus, but he isn’t currently a starter for the Heat.

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Latest On James Harden

January 13th, 2021 at 9:15am CST by Luke Adams

James Harden made some late-night headlines on Tuesday, declaring in the wake of a second consecutive blowout loss to the Lakers that he feels the Rockets are “just not good enough” and that he doesn’t believe the situation in Houston can be fixed.

Harden’s comments represent an escalation in his efforts to force his way out of Houston, but the Rockets’ front office has remained determined to have its asking price met, according to Tim MacMahon of ESPN, who reiterates that the team is seeking a young franchise cornerstone, along with a collection of draft picks and/or young talent.

A source close to the situation tells MacMahon that the Rockets have had active trade talks with “more than a half dozen teams” and have kept in touch with Harden about those options. The former MVP has continually received assurances from team owner Tilman Fertitta that he’ll be traded, per ESPN, but it seems those assurances haven’t included a specific timeline — and Harden seems to be losing patience.

Here’s more on the situation:

  • Harden’s desire for a trade was reinforced following Sunday’s blowout loss to the Lakers, per Kelly Iko of The Athletic, who says the 31-year-old is eager to maximize his window to contend for a championship and no longer believes that can happen with the Rockets.
  • While Harden has expanded his list of preferred landing spots, sources tell Iko that the Nets remain atop that list. The general belief has been that Brooklyn would offer a package headed by Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen, but one league executive who spoke to Joe Vardon of The Athletic on Tuesday believes that if a trade between the Nets and Rockets happens, it would have to be centered around Kyrie Irving.
  • Tuesday’s performances from Tyler Herro (34 points), Duncan Robinson (26 points), and Precious Achiuwa (17 points and 13 rebounds) helped reaffirm why the Heat are unwilling to send all their talented young players to Houston in a package for Harden, tweets Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. Jackson recently reported that Miami is open to offering “a couple” of their young players and a future first-round pick for Harden, but the Rockets want significantly more than that.
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Southeast Notes: Heat, Harden, Bradley, Richards, Anthony

January 6th, 2021 at 6:48pm CST by Luke Adams

When they were exploring a possible James Harden trade before the start of the season, the Heat were open to including “a couple” of their young players and their 2025 first-round pick in a package for the star guard, says Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. However, the Rockets‘ asking price was significantly higher.

According to Jackson, even if the Heat had offered Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Precious Achiuwa, KZ Okpala, and first-round picks in 2025 and 2027 (along with Andre Iguodala and Kelly Olynyk for salary-matching purposes), it’s not clear that would have been enough to satisfy the Rockets.

The Heat reportedly pulled out of Harden discussions on December 21. Jackson writes that team president Pat Riley thinks highly of Harden, but would only be willing to make a deal for the Rockets star at “a price that’s palatable to him and the organization.”

Here’s more from around the Southeast:

  • Avery Bradley‘s defense has been as strong as advertised, and he’s also making an impact on offense in his first season with the Heat, writes Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald. Bradley’s play in the early going has impressed his teammates, as well as head coach Erik Spoelstra. “Avery is a guy that can play in any system,” Spoelstra said. “As long as it’s a contending team, he fits. He’s a really good basketball player. He’s a winner. And he’s a two-way player, a legit two-way player.”
  • Rookie Hornets center Nick Richards has been ruled inactive for today’s game against the Hawks due to the NBA’s COVID-19 protocols, the team announced (via Twitter). It’s not clear how long those protocols will keep Richards out of action, but it shouldn’t have an impact on Charlotte’s rotation, as he has logged just 11 total minutes so far this season.
  • The Magic have a spotty player development over the last decade, having set the franchise back years by failing to get the most out of the likes of Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, and others, according Josh Robbins of The Athletic, who examines how the team is looking to avoid repeating those failures with 2020 first-rounder Cole Anthony.
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Heat Notes: Iguodala, Spoelstra, Herro, Robinson

January 3rd, 2021 at 5:24pm CST by JD Shaw

The Heat could benefit from testing Andre Iguodala at starting power forward for the foreseeable future, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel opined in his recent “Ask Ira” mailbag.

Iguodala, who was acquired by the Heat last February, has started two straight games after coming off the bench in his first three contests. Miami has started five different lineups in five games, seeking to finalize its group while juggling injuries.

The Heat started Jae Crowder alongside Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in their run to the Finals last season, though the team opted not to re-sign Crowder with intentions of maintaining salary-cap flexibility for this season and next summer. The club has also tried Meyers Leonard and Maurice Harkless in that position thus far.

Should the Iguodala experiment not pan out (he’s a former Finals MVP, but he’s also turning 37 this month), Miami could test Jimmy Butler alongside Adebayo and start a player such as Avery Bradley instead. The team could also examine the trade market and pursue players such as P.J. Tucker, LaMarcus Aldridge or Blake Griffin ahead of the March 25 deadline if it so chooses.

There’s more out of Miami tonight:

  • Erik Spoelstra isn’t making any excuses for the team’s poor offensive start to the season, Khobi Price of the Sun Sentinel writes. Miami currently owns the third-worst offensive rating in the league at 101.8, according to Price, though the campaign is still young. “It is so early,” Spoelstra said. “You know what we did today? We worked on it. It’s going to get better. We know it will. But there’s no point in me talking about all the little details.”
  • Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald examines how Tyler Herro has adjusted to his new role as the team’s starting point guard. Goran Dragic unquestionably remains the best point guard on the roster, but Miami has tested Herro with hopes of finding a long-term fit at the position.
  • Ira Winderman ponders in a separate “Ask Ira” mailbag whether another level of play is needed from Duncan Robinson, who’s likely been at the top of opposing teams’ scouting reports this season. Robinson established himself as one of the league’s top three-point shooters last season, with rival teams working to slow him down after a productive campaign. He remains an underrated passer, though his game inside-the-arc is a work in progress.
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Southeast Notes: Bonga, Dunn, Bogdanovic, Herro, Robinson

January 1st, 2021 at 6:50pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Wizards forward Isaac Bonga got benched on Thursday after starting the first four games and coach Scott Brooks said it was simply a numbers game, Kevin Brown of NBC Sports Washington writes. With Rui Hachimura returning from an eye injury and reclaiming his usual spot in the lineup, Brooks had to choose between Bonga and Troy Brown as the backup. He chose Brown. “We’re trying to find minutes for Troy (Brown Jr.) and Bonga, and (Thursday) it was Troy, but who knows who it will be (Friday) night,” Brooks said.

We have more from the Southeast Division:

  • Hawks coach Lloyd Pierce said he had promising reports regarding guard Kris Dunn‘s arthroscopic right ankle surgery on Tuesday, according to Sarah Spencer of the Atlanta Journal Constitution. Dunn is wearing a walking boot and will be re-evaluated in two weeks. The former Bull has yet to make his Atlanta debut. “It sounds as if everything went well, as well as the surgery can go, and he’s staying here at the hotel,” Pierce said. “But he’s post-op and laying low.”
  • Hawks free agent acquisition Bogdan Bogdanovic has averaged 15.3 PPG on 42.9% shooting from deep but Pierce says his value goes beyond perimeter shooting, Spencer writes in a separate story. “He hasn’t had any bad games,” Pierce said. “Bad games aren’t ‘make or miss.’ He’s taking those shots, I’ll live with them…. I trust his work. I’ve been praising the fact that he’s probably our hardest post-practice worker.”
  • Would the combination of Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson be enough to satisfy the Rockets in a potential deal with the Heat for James Harden? Not even close, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets. Houston wants “significantly more than that” for Harden, sources inform Jackson.
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Southeast Notes: Wizards, Hayward, Robinson, Dragic

December 28th, 2020 at 12:03pm CST by JD Shaw

The Wizards have opened the 2020/21 season with three straight losses — the most recent coming on Sunday against the Magic — despite leading by as many as 17 points in the fourth quarter.

Washington played without Russell Westbrook (rest) on the second night of its back-to-back, losing 120-113.

“You don’t go from 17 points, damn near 20 points, to losing the damn game,” Bradley Beal said, as relayed by Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington. “That’s unacceptable on all fronts.”

Beal played well in the team’s first game against Orlando on Saturday, scoring 39 points on 14-of-24 shooting, though he shot just 10-of-29 on Sunday. As a whole, the team allowed 250 points during the two contests (an average of 125 per game).

“If it’s a three-game season, we didn’t have a very good year,” coach Scott Brooks acknowledged, working to remain positive. “But we’ve still got 69 games left. We’ve gotta keep fighting.”

There’s more from the Southeast Division today:

  • Hornets veteran Gordon Hayward demonstrated that he can help the team in a variety of ways on Sunday, Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer writes. Hayward, who joined the Hornets on a four-year, $120MM deal in free agency, carried the load offensively against Brooklyn. The 30-year-old recorded 28 points, six rebounds and seven assists, helping secure a 106-104 victory.
  • Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel explores the impending restricted free agency of Heat guard Duncan Robinson, noting that several teams have prioritized re-signing their sharpshooters in recent years (ex. Joe Harris with Brooklyn, or Davis Bertans with Washington). Robinson has established himself as one of the league’s top shooters, sinking seven threes in Miami’s game against New Orleans on Christmas Day, and Winderman believes the Heat are very likely to lock him up in 2021.
  • Goran Dragic has thrived off the bench for the Heat, proving his worth as a quality back-up ball-handler for the club, Winderman writes in a separate story for the Sun Sentinel. Dragic appears to be comfortable with starting or coming off the bench, a positive sign for a team that hasn’t finalized its starting lineup yet. “He’s a decorated veteran,” coach Erik Spoelstra said of Dragic. “He keeps himself in great shape, at a high fitness level. So it’s really about getting your basketball rhythm. That’s a great lesson to any young player. As long as you’re not woefully out of shape during the offseason, you can get it back with experience pretty quickly.”
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James Harden Rumors: Simmons, Sixers, Heat, Robinson

December 18th, 2020 at 10:16am CST by Luke Adams

After reporting on Thursday that the Sixers have been willing to discuss Ben Simmons in James Harden trade talks with the Rockets, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (video link) said during an appearance on the Keyshawn, JWill and Zubin Show today that Philadelphia will be “very careful” about including Simmons in any offer that doesn’t get them more than Harden.

While Wojnarowski doesn’t get into any specifics about what Philadelphia would want, it seems reasonable to assume that if they’re being asked to part with Simmons and draft picks, the 76ers would seek at least one more player from the Rockets — perhaps someone like P.J. Tucker. It doesn’t sound like Houston would be enthusiastic about that scenario though, per Wojnarowski, who says the Rockets will likely want Simmons “plus a bunch more assets” for just Harden.

“You saw (Sixers president of basketball operations) Daryl Morey come out yesterday and say, ‘We’re not trading Ben Simmons,'” Wojnarowski said. “Well, I certainly don’t think they’re trading Ben Simmons just in a deal that looks like it’s straight up with some picks for James Harden. I think they’re going to want a lot more than James Harden. That might not be a deal that’s available to the Sixers.”

The two sides could re-engage in discussions, but right now they aren’t close, according to Woj, who says he expects Simmons and Joel Embiid to open the season in Philadelphia.

Here’s more on Harden:

  • Although the Rockets are committed to finding the right deal, they’d be happy to get a Harden trade done “sooner than later,” Wojnarowski said this morning during an appearance on ESPN’s Get Up (video link).
  • Simmons is unlikely to be traded for Harden at this time, according to Derek Bodner of The Athletic, who cautions that doesn’t mean it won’t happen in the coming months if the Simmons/Embiid duo isn’t thriving. For now though, once reports surfaced suggesting Simmons might be available, the Sixers had to publicly back their All-Star guard, Bodner writes.
  • The Heat were said to have interest in exploring a possible Harden trade and have presumably touched base with Houston. However, Ethan Skolnick of Five Reasons Sports (Twitter link) hears from multiple sources that the inclusion of Duncan Robinson in a possible offer is a “major sticking point” — in other words, the Rockets would want him and Miami wouldn’t want to give him up.
  • ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Insider link) expanded his breakdown of teams that could theoretically make a run at Harden from nine to 14, adding long shots like the Cavaliers, Bucks, Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, and Kings.
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Heat Guarantee Salaries For Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson

November 17th, 2020 at 1:57pm CST by Luke Adams

The Heat have guaranteed the 2020/21 salaries for guard Kendrick Nunn and forward Duncan Robinson, a league source tells John Hollinger of The Athletic (Twitter link). Previously, their matching minimum salaries ($1,663,861) for next season had been fully non-guaranteed.

Given the impact Nunn and Robinson had for the Heat in 2019/20, guaranteeing those salaries was always considered a mere formality.

Nunn, a contender for Rookie of the Year, averaged 15.3 PPG and 3.3 APG in 67 games (all starts), while Robinson emerged as one of the NBA’s most dangerous outside shooters, knocking down 44.6% of 8.3 three-point attempts per game in 73 contests.

Both Nunn and Robinson will be eligible for restricted free agency in 2021. Meeting the starter criteria next season would increase the value of their qualifying offers and accompanying cap holds. However, those holds will still be modest enough that they shouldn’t be an impediment to Miami maximizing its cap room to pursue a star free agent.

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Heat Notes: Butler, Robinson, Spoelstra, Campus

October 11th, 2020 at 6:13pm CST by JD Shaw

Heat guard Jimmy Butler has cemented his status as a respected star and leader regardless of the NBA Finals outcome, Ramona Shelburne of ESPN.com writes.

Butler, who’s in his first season with Miami, has guided his team to a 14-6 postseason record, trailing the Lakers 3-2 in the Finals despite coping with key injuries to Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo since Game 1 of the series. He willed his team to victory in Game 5, pouring in 35 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists and five steals in over 47 minutes.

“His will to win is remarkable,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said postgame. “To do that in 47-plus minutes and take the challenge on at the other end — every young player coming into this league should study footage on Jimmy Butler.”

Miami has surprised the basketball world these playoffs, sweeping the Pacers in round one, upsetting the Bucks 4-1 in round two and defeating a star-studded Celtics team 4-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals. The team has generated its momentum behind the likes of Butler, Dragic and Adebayo, plus the emergence of Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson.

There’s more out of Miami tonight:

  • The Lakers learned in Game 5 that Duncan Robinson can be exceptionally deadly from three-point range once he catches fire, Jeff Zilgitt of USA TODAY writes. Robinson scored a career-high 26 points on 7-for-13 shooting from deep on Friday, further solidifying himself as one of the league’s elite shooters. “Obviously, they’ve done a really good job scheming to take things away, but for me, it’s just about finding a way – whatever it takes to get to my spots,” Robinson said. “If you continue to do that, you’ll have your openings. You’ll be able to find spots here and there. If I catch the ball and can see the rim, it’s going up, pretty much.”
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Heat Notes: Butler, Adebayo, Robinson, ECF Schedule

September 18th, 2020 at 12:59pm CST by Arthur Hill

Jimmy Butler has been a difference maker since coming to Miami, and he proved in Thursday’s Game 2 that it doesn’t have to be with scoring, writes Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today. Butler shot just 4-of-11 from the field and was limited to 14 points, but he played a huge role on defense as the Heat held the Celtics to 41 points in the second half and just seven in the game’s final 4:25.

“That was winning basketball tonight from Jimmy Butler,” coach Erik Spoelstra said. “It’s not about the final line. … Jimmy did so many things in that second half that impacted winning on both ends of the floor. Either the average fan sees it or they don’t, but we don’t care.”

After a bumpy relationship with teammates and management in both Chicago and Minnesota, Butler has been a seamless fit with Miami, which emphasizes both peak conditioning and unfiltered communication. The “Heat culture” played a huge role in Butler’s desire to join the team when he hit free agency last summer.

“We look each other in the eye and tell each other when it’s BS,” Butler said. “Spo is going to do it. I’m going to do it. Jae (Crowder) is going to do it. Tyler (Herro) is going to do it. Duncan (Robinson), all the way down the line. … We know when we’re not playing the way that we’re supposed to be playing. And as bad as it sounds, it’s like a switch. It just turns on, and oh, there we go right there. I’m telling you, straight-face communication, move on and get it done.”

There’s more Heat news to pass along:

  • With Miami trailing by 13 points at halftime Thursday, Spoelstra challenged Bam Adebayo to be “All-Defensive team Bam,” according to Manny Navarro of The Athletic. Adebayo responded not only with better defense, but with 15 third-quarter points to help lead the comeback. He’s an emerging star at age 23 and has become a greater pick-and-roll weapon in the postseason. “Bam is set up for how the league is moving forward: big, athletic, can do multiple things,” Celtics forward Jaylen Brown said. “Really carved out a space for himself in this league.”
  • With shooters being a priority throughout the NBA, Rob Mahoney of The Ringer examines how the Heat were able to find Robinson as an undrafted free agent. After signing a summer league deal with Miami in 2018, Robinson blossomed as a scorer this season, pouring in 13.5 PPG and shooting .446 from 3-point range.
  • Andre Iguodala sat out the second half of Game 2 with a “tight back,” tweets Ira Winderman of The Sun-Sentinel.
  • Competition from other sports has affected the schedule for the Eastern Conference Finals, tweets Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. The every-other-day rotation would normally have Game 4 on Monday, but it has been pushed back to Wednesday to avoid going head-to-head with Monday Night Football. A potential Game 7 may be September 29 or 30, but ESPN has seven baseball playoff series on those dates.
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