Fred VanVleet

Execs Think Brogdon Contract Will Set Market For VanVleet

Executives around the NBA believe that the four-year, $85MM contract signed by Malcolm Brogdon last summer will set the market for Raptors guard Fred VanVleet this fall, according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst.

Brogdon, who was 26 when he reached free agency in 2019, was coming off a season in which he averaged 15.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 3.2 APG with an impressive .505/.426/.928 shooting line in 64 games for the top-seeded Bucks.

VanVleet’s shooting line in 2019/20 (.413/.390/.848) isn’t as impressive as Brogdon’s was, but the Raptors guard – who will also enter free agency at age 26 – is a strong defender who has enjoyed a career year offensively for the defending champions, with 17.6 PPG and 6.6 APG in 54 games.

As Windhorst points out, the NBA’s economy was healthier a year ago, and the fact that Brogdon was a restricted free agent helped boost his value. The Pacers had to make an aggressive offer to convince Milwaukee to sign-and-trade Brogdon to a division rival rarely than simply matching and retaining him.

However, there are factors working in VanVleet’s favor as well. If Anthony Davis and Brandon Ingram return to their respective teams, the Raptors guard could be the top free agent on the market, and he’d be an intriguing target for certain rebuilding teams with cap room, such as the Knicks and Pistons. Additionally, the Bucks reportedly had some health concerns related to Brogdon’s feet, which won’t apply to VanVleet.

Another strong playoff run could help further increase VanVleet’s free agent value. He got off to a good start on Monday, leading the Raptors to a blowout Game 1 win over Brooklyn with 30 points, 11 assists, and eight three-pointers.

Toronto will have the cap flexibility to necessary to retain VanVleet, but a pricey multiyear contract for the standout guard would cut into the team’s projected room for 2021, when president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri hopes to make a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo. If Giannis is sending strong signals that he intends to sign an extension with the Bucks, it could increase the Raptors’ willingness to pay big long-term money to VanVleet.

Giannis Antetokounmpo To Miss Monday’s Game

The Bucks and Raptors will face one another on Monday night in a possible Eastern Conference Finals preview, but the MVP frontrunner won’t be taking part in the game. Milwaukee announced in this afternoon’s injury report that Giannis Antetokounmpo won’t play against Toronto due to oral surgery.

It’s probably safe to assume the ailment wouldn’t sideline Antetokounmpo for an important playoff game, but with the Bucks and Raptors locked into the East’s Nos. 1 and 2 seeds, respectively, there’s no real need for the two teams to go all-out tonight.

It’s possible the Raptors will be without some of their key rotation players as well. Kyle Lowry (lower back soreness), Fred VanVleet (hyperextended right knee), and Serge Ibaka (right knee contusion) are all listed as questionable for the second end of a back-to-back set.

Here are a few more injury and availability updates from around the NBA:

  • Rockets star James Harden will sit out on Tuesday vs. San Antonio for rest purposes, tweets Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. However, Houston will get two other guards back this week, per Feigen, who says that Russell Westbrook (quad) will return on Tuesday and Eric Gordon (ankle) will play on Wednesday vs. Indiana. Each player will suit up for one of two games in the back-to-back set.
  • The Pelicans have listed Jrue Holiday (right elbow contusion), Brandon Ingram (right knee soreness), and Zion Williamson (right knee soreness) as out for Tuesday’s game vs. Sacramento. Head coach Alvin Gentry said today that the three players are sitting out for “precautionary” reasons, per ESPN’s Andrew Lopez (Twitter link). New Orleans was eliminated from playoff contention over the weekend.
  • It’s not an injury, but Suns center Deandre Ayton didn’t start this afternoon’s game vs. Oklahoma City because he missed his scheduled COVID-19 test on Sunday, tweets Gina Mizell. According to Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter links), Ayton was re-tested on Monday morning and received clearance to rejoin the team, arriving late to the game against the Thunder.

Atlantic Notes: Crawford, Walker, Robinson, VanVleet

On Wednesday night, Nets interim head coach Jacque Vaughn told reporters that guard Jamal Crawford will miss a few games with a strained hamstring, per Nick Friedell of ESPN (Twitter link).

Crawford suffered the injury in the second quarter of Tuesday’s afternoon game against the Bucks. It was the 40-year-old’s first game with Brooklyn after not playing in the team’s previous games and scrimmages.

Crawford only played six minutes off the bench, scoring five points and dishing out three assists. Without Crawford for the foreseeable future, the Nets could turn to Tyler Johnson and Timothe Luwawu-Caborrot, who started in place of Joe Harris and Caris LeVert.

Here’s more from around the Atlantic Division:

  • According to Celtics head coach Brad Stevens, point guard Kemba Walker is expected to receive more minutes on Friday night, per Jared Weiss of The Athletic (Twitter link). The veteran point guard played 27 minutes on Tuesday against the Heat, scoring 15 points. Stevens also added that Walker isn’t expected to be on a minutes restriction when the playoffs start later this month.
  • In an interview with Marcus Thompson II of The Athletic, Sixers forward Glenn Robinson III talked at length about his experience being a veteran inside the bubble. Robinson, who was traded from the Warriors in February, believes he was acquired not only for his shooting and defense, but also for his leadership. “I think I was brought on this team for some of that. I feel like they know how I am in the locker room,” Robinson said. “I get the respect of every teammate I’ve had a chance to play with. I may not say a lot. But I get the respect because you’ve got my respect and I have your best interest as my teammate.” Robinson has not played in any of Philadelphia’s seeding games due to a left hip pointer injury that he suffered during the scrimmages.
  • Doug Smith of The Toronto Star explains why the Raptors must re-sign Fred VanVleet, who is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason. Smith mentions veteran starting point guard Kyle Lowry going into the final year of his contract as one of the main reasons why Toronto needs to keep VanVleet. He also brings up VanVleet’s ability to make big plays and his on-court awareness.

Atlantic Notes: Nets, Celtics, Thibodeau, VanVleet

When the Nets take on the Magic to begin the seeding games on Friday afternoon, they might be without a couple of players. According to Brian Lewis of the New York Post (Twitter link), Brooklyn head coach Jacque Vaughn was “non-committal” about Jamal Crawford or Donta Hall playing. Vaughn added that they want to be healthy for the entire restart and the focus is not just this one game against Orlando.

Crawford, who is the elder statesmen of this young Nets team, was signed earlier this month as a replacement player. The 40-year-old guard last played in NBA in the 2018/19 season for the Suns. In 64 games with Phoenix, he averaged 7.9 PPG, 3.6 APG, and 1.3 RPG.

Hall, meanwhile, was also signed earlier this month as a substitute player by the Nets. The 23-year-old big man spent some time with both the Grand Rapids Drive (the Pistons’ G League affiliate) and Detroit this season. With the Drive, the former Alabama Crimson Tide standout averaged 15.4 PPG and 10.6 RPG and earned second-team All-NBAGL honors. Then with the Pistons, Hall received two 10-day contracts. But his latest one in March did not roll over, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Here’s more from around the Atlantic Division:

  • In a radio interview on Wednesday, Celtics head coach Brad Stevens said that starting point guard Kemba Walker‘s knee “is the strongest it’s been since he got here in September” (h/t NBC Sports Boston). Stevens also mentioned that Walker will be on a minute restriction against the Bucks on Friday, likely playing between 14-20 minutes.
  • Warriors assistant coach Ron Adams believes that the Knicks‘ success hinges on the long-standing relationship between new team president Leon Rose and soon-to-be head coach Tom Thibodeau, writes Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News. “I think it’s really important. It’s important for Tom,” Adams said. “For somebody starting out like Leon, I think it’s important for him to thoroughly know another person for a long period of time. And it can’t be anything but helpful for both parties.” Adams was on Thibodeau’s staff in Chicago for a few seasons and saw first-hand how successful things were when everybody was working on one accord. Thibodeau will have the tall task of trying to get the Knicks back to the playoffs.
  • If Raptors point guard and impending free-agent Fred VanVleet wants to take his game to another level, he needs to be a better finisher at the rim, opines Blake Murphy of The Athletic. Murphy points out that the play styles of VanVleet and starting point guard Kyle Lowry are similar in multiple ways, but what separates them is the ability to finish at the rim. As of right now, VanVleet ranks towards the bottom third in restricted area field goal percentage (51.2).

Pistons Notes: Wood, VanVleet, Rose, Casey

The Pistons‘ offseason decisions will be heavily influenced by what happens with the NBA’s salary cap, writes James L. Edwards III of The Athletic. Originally projected at $116MM, there have been rumors that the cap for next season could remain at $109MM. That would limit the flexibility for Detroit, which has just four players under contract beyond this year.

That number will likely grow when Tony Snell exercises his $12.178MM player option, Edwards notes, and second-year guards Bruce Brown and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk are expected to be brought back for $1.6MM each, along with Khyri Thomas. That would leave the Pistons with a seven-man roster at roughly $76MM, giving the team nearly $30MM in cap room.

The top priority will be re-signing Christian Wood, who blossomed as a star after the trade of Andre Drummond. If a depressed market allows Detroit to keep Wood at a reasonable price — Edwards estimates around $12MM per year — the team could have enough left to make a serious run at Toronto guard Fred VanVleet. The downside, Edwards points out, is that the Pistons would have to fill out the roster with just a $4.8MM mid-level exception and minimum contracts.

There’s more from Detroit:

  • Derrick Rose is likely to be moved sometime before next year’s trade deadline, Edwards adds in a mailbag column. It depends on Rose maintaining his health and high level of play after he turns 32 in October, but Edwards notes that the veteran guard is only under contract for one more year and Detroit doesn’t look like a playoff contender next season.
  • There’s little chance the Pistons would consider an early termination of coach Dwane Casey, even though the organization is in a far different position than when he was hired two years ago, observes Omari Sankofa II of The Detroit Free Press. Casey seems to have accepted the challenge of a rebuild, just as he did in Toronto. He was also involved in the interview process that led to the hiring of new general manager Troy Weaver. “Dwane Casey is the rock of the organization,” senior advisor Arn Tellem said in a recent radio interview. “We were lucky to get him a couple of years ago when we went through this search. He’s a true leader of this organization.” 
  • Weaver penned a message to Pistons fans on the team’s website, discussing his decision to leave Oklahoma City and his long relationship with Tellem while acknowledging, “We have work to do to make the roster better.”

Atlantic Notes: Durant, Irving, Sixers, VanVleet

The Nets would be a much different team if Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving both return when the season resumes, and Greg Logan of Newsday looks at how having them on the court would affect the rest of the lineup. Durant will have had more than 13 months to recover from a torn Achilles tendon if games start again on July 31, while Irving will be nearly five months removed from shoulder surgery.

Logan believes Durant would take Taurean Prince‘s role in the starting lineup, while Irving would push Spencer Dinwiddie to the bench. That would give Brooklyn a stronger second team, along with Jarrett Allen, Wilson Chandler and probably Garrett Temple. If Durant and Irving don’t return, Logan notes, the Nets will have to rely on playoff minutes from Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Chris Chiozza.

There’s more from the Atlantic Division:

  • The return to action will give interim coach Jacque Vaughn a chance to prove himself under fire, Logan adds in the same story. Vaughn has coached just two games since taking over for Kenny Atkinson, but he already made a significant move, replacing Allen in the starting lineup with DeAndre Jordan. The Nets are rumored to have interest in some high-profile coaches, but Vaughn will get to show what he can do in a high-pressure atmosphere.
  • If Ben Simmons is fully recovered from a back injury, the Sixers could return with a starting lineup that has never played together, writes Derek Bodner of The Athletic. Shortly after Simmons got hurt in late February, coach Brett Brown decided to replace Al Horford as a starter and eventually settled on Shake Milton. Simmons, Milton, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid haven’t taken the court together at all this season.
  • Fred VanVleet believes the Raptors are in good position to defend their NBA title, relays Scott Rafferty of NBA.com. VanVleet discussed Toronto’s chances during an appearance this week on ESPN’s “The Jump.” “I think that’s part of the reason that everyone wants to get back, at least from our camp,” he said. “We knew we had a good chance, as good a chance as anybody from obviously what we did last year and then to come back after losing Kawhi (Leonard) and Danny (Green) to have the team that we had this year.”

Fred VanVleet May Consider Short-Term Contract

Raptors guard Fred VanVleet, who may be affected as much as anyone by disruptions to the NBA’s free agency process, spoke about the situation today in a conference call with reporters, tweets Josh Lewenberg of TSN Sports.

VanVleet is in the midst of his best season, averaging 17.6 points and 6.6 assists per game in his first year as a full-time starter. He’s in position to command a significant raise on his current $9.35MM salary, but reduced revenue due to the league’s hiatus figures to lessen the value of his next contract.

“I think about it. I’m human,” VanVleet said. “I feel like I worked myself in good position. I was having a hell of a year and I was planning on having a great playoffs to cap that off. I think I was in good shape. And I think, more so than worrying about what would’ve, could’ve, should’ve happened is more so like, what’s going to happen? Are they going to move the dates around? Does free agency move? How does it affect the cap? Those types of things are more so what I’m thinking about versus, ‘Oh, woe is me.'” (Twitter link).

VanVleet noted that several other players are facing the same circumstances, citing Christian Wood of the Pistons as an example. Wood put up big numbers after Detroit traded Andre Drummond and was also positioned to benefit in free agency.

“I think the league and the union will try to do a good job to make sure that the free agents get a fair shake and it’s fair negotiating,” VanVleet added. “Obviously we’ll probably all take a hit at some point, but hopefully the hit is minimized to just this year and so there’s ways to work around that stuff.”

One avenue that VanVleet might consider is another short-term deal, similar to the two-year contract he signed with Toronto in 2018 (Twitter link). He said it never would have happened under a “best-case scenario,” but he’s “flexible” now considering the league’s strained financial position.

VanVleet is skeptical that the current season can be safely resumed, but he understands that there’s a lot of financial incentive to try, according to Ian Harrison of The Associated Press.

“If our league is going to be a leader in terms of public health and public safety and player safety, you’ve got to follow the guidelines of what the virus is speaking to you, so the odds are probably against us in terms of that,” VanVleet said. “But money, right? So, I think they’ll find a way somehow, some way and try to make it happen. I could definitely see it going either way. I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t come back and I wouldn’t be surprised if we do come back.”

First World Problems: Knicks’ Point Guard Situation

The Knicks‘ point guard situation appears to be an evergreen problem. New team president Leon Rose inherits a stable of underwhelming options just as Steve Mills and Phil Jackson did entering their respective regimes. Like his predecessors, Rose is expected to look for upgrades at the position this offseason.

What are some potential options? Prior to the Rose hire, the team had interest in trading for Terry Rozier, as Ian Begley of SNY.tv details. According to Begley, there was some support internally to send a package of Julius Randle, Dennis Smith Jr., and a future first-rounder to the Hornets in exchange for a return that included Rozier and Malik Monk.

While Rozier isn’t the All-Star point guard that New York’s fan base hopes for, he’s an upgrade on the current options. Elfrid Payton and Smith have had up-and-down results in the Big Apple. Frank Ntilikina, who has one more year left on his rookie deal, finally showed some progress but his long-term future with the club is uncertain.

Fred VanVleet will likely be the top point guard available on the free-agent market, though it’s hard to envision Toronto not doing all it can to retain the 2019 Finals hero. Chris Paul could be an option, but his contract gave teams pause last summer and that was before factoring in any sort of coronavirus-related basketball income woes that could suppress the league’s salary cap.

The franchise selecting a point guard atop the 2020 NBA draft might the best option for a brighter future at the position. The Knicks entered the NBA’s hiatus with the sixth-worst record in the league, which would give the team a 9% chance at the No. 1 overall selection, as we detailed earlier this month.

And-Ones: BIG3, Pierce, Free Agency, VanVleet

With the BIG3 planning to hold a quarantined basketball tournament that will double as a ‘Big Brother’-style reality show, Chris Herring of FiveThirtyEight spoke to UCLA infectious disease epidemiologist Anne Rimoin to get a sense of whether the league’s plans are realistic. Dr. Rimoin is unconvinced that the BIG3’s testing process will be thorough enough and skeptical that the format of the event would be viable.

“Even if you test them (for COVID-19), they could be incubating for up to 14 days,” she said. “They would need to be in complete isolation, put in an isolation chamber — meaning no contact with anybody — for 14 days prior. They wouldn’t be allowed to have contact with anybody during that period, or while they’re playing. That’s the science of it. But I don’t see that happening. These people have families, friends. They might need to get groceries.”

Dr. Arthur Reingold told Herring that the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health may also need to give the green light to the BIG3’s plan, so there will be hurdles for the league to overcome if it wants to hold its quarantined tournament.

Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:

  • Appearing on ESPN’s The Jump (video link), Paul Pierce claimed he was intrigued by the idea of playing in the BIG3’s tournament, given the rumored seven-figure prize and the fact that it may take place in Los Angeles. His former Celtics teammate and fellow ESPN analyst Kendrick Perkins, meanwhile, argued that the tournament shouldn’t even take place.
  • In an in-depth Insider piece for ESPN.com, Bobby Marks previews the offseason questions facing all 30 NBA teams, breaking down each club’s needs, draft assets, cap situation, and free-agents-to-be.
  • Danny Leroux of The Athletic takes an early look at the free agent market for point guards this offseason. With no max-caliber players expected to be available, Leroux identifies Fred VanVleet and Mike Conley as the players most likely to do better than the mid-level. Of course, Conley has a $34.5MM early termination option for 2020/21, so he seems like a good bet to put off free agency for another year.

Raptors Notes: Gasol, Ibaka, VanVleet, Powell

Lost revenue from the NBA’s hiatus has the Raptors in a position of financial uncertainty as they look ahead to the offseason, writes Doug Smith of The Toronto Star. Toronto has just nine players signed beyond this season, and only four of them are part of the rotation. Marc Gasol, Serge Ibaka and Fred VanVleet are all headed for free agency, and the Raptors aren’t sure how much cap room they’ll have available.

The league may lose hundreds of millions in projected earnings if it can’t salvage a significant portion of its remaining season. That’s on top of lost money resulting from the dispute with China. Smith points out that Pascal Siakam‘s new extension, which begins next season, is based on a percentage of the salary cap. While that might give the Raptors more money to work with than they were expecting, it adds to the muddled financial picture.

There’s more from Toronto:

  • The Raptors should prioritize re-signing Gasol over Ibaka if they decide not to keep both, argues Blake Murphy of The Athletic. Even though Ibaka is five years younger and a better scorer, Murphy sees Gasol as a superior passer, defender and floor spacer. He also suggests that Gasol may be more willing to accept a large one-year contract, which allows the team to remain competitive in a talented 2021 free agent class.
  • Murphy had expected VanVleet to get an offer beyond what Toronto is willing to pay, but he cautions that a lower salary cap might change the equation. He projected that the Raptors would offer the fourth-year guard a new deal in the range of $17MM to $20MM annually. Only five or six teams will have the money to top that, and several of them already have young point guards in place. Murphy states that VanVleet’s best strategy may be to accept a long-term deal in Toronto that takes advantage of his Bird rights.
  • Norman Powell‘s improvement this season may tempt the Raptors to hold onto his contract rather than trade it for cap relief, Murphy adds. Powell is owed nearly $10.9MM next season and has an $11.6MM player option for 2021/22.