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Potential 2018 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 10th, 2018 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.

Jabari Parker (Bucks)
Dante Exum (Jazz)
Nik Stauskas (Nets)
Noah Vonleh (Bulls)
Doug McDermott (Mavericks)
Zach LaVine (Bulls)

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.

Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.

Elfrid Payton (Suns)
Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers)
Clint Capela (Rockets)
Kyle Anderson (Spurs)

Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.

Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this year.

Yogi Ferrell (Mavericks)

Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.

The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Bucks Notes: Parker, Brogdon, Dellavedova, Baker

April 4th, 2018 at 10:02pm CST by Arthur Hill

Jabari Parker and the Bucks may both have a better future if he signs somewhere else this summer, writes Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post. Parker will face an unpredictable market as a restricted free agent after averaging 11.9 points and 4.3 rebounds in 27 games since returning from an ACL tear.

The Bucks offered an extension in October worth about $54MM over three years, but Parker turned it down, hoping for a better deal on the open market. He realizes that his time in Milwaukee may be ending soon.

“Honestly, it’s uncertain,” he said. “I know that, just looking from afar, [the Bucks] will be fine. But I just have to see what’s going to happen with my future, and that’s uncertain. But I know for them, they’ll be fine regardless. They’ve been doing well.”

The Bucks have the option to match any offer Parker receives, but doing so would cut into their free agency plans for next summer, Bontemps adds. Milwaukee will have about $30MM in cap space in 2019, plus $19MM in expiring contracts for John Henson and Matthew Dellavedova that shouldn’t be hard to move if more room is needed.

There’s more news tonight out of Milwaukee:

Before he moves onto free agency, Parker will focus on his first trip to the playoffs, relays Genaro C. Armas of The Associated Press. Milwaukee clinched a spot tonight, marking the first postseason in which Parker will be healthy enough to participate. “I’m just grateful to get to get the opportunity,” he said. “That’s what means the most [in] the NBA. It’s not the regular season. It’s the postseason, and that’s where you want to end up.”
Malcolm Brogdon was a limited participant in practice today as he tries to bounce back from a partially torn his left quadricep tendon, tweets Matt Velazquez of The Journal Sentinel. Brogdon was projected to miss six to eight weeks when the injury was discovered in early February. Interim coach Joe Prunty said Brogdon is making progress, but there still isn’t a return date for him or Dellavedova, who is recovering from a grade 3 right ankle sprain.
Vin Baker has been sober for nearly seven years and is enjoying his new role as an assistant coach for the Bucks, writes Tim Van Vooren of Fox 6 News in Milwaukee. Baker was added to the staff in January when Jason Kidd was ousted as head coach. “I couldn’t imagine, at the age of 46, a more perfect opportunity, a more perfect place to be given my story and given the fact that this is where it all started for me,” Baker said.
Gery Woelfel offers a look inside the Bucks’ new arena on Woelfel’sPressBox. The facility is expected to be ready in time for the start of next season.

RFA Rumors: Parker, Gordon, Exum, Smart, Randle

March 30th, 2018 at 12:09pm CST by Luke Adams

Only about a quarter of the NBA’s teams are expected to have meaningful cap room this summer, so restricted free agents hoping for a major payday could have a tough summer, writes Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders. Last week, we identified eight RFAs we believe have positioned themselves well for long-term contracts, and while we’re still bullish on those players, the RFA market may not be as active overall as it has been in some previous offseasons.

Within his latest piece, Kyler took a closer look at a few specific 2018 restricted free agents, so let’s round up some highlights from his breakdown…

Most NBA insiders believe the Bucks will ultimately retain Jabari Parker, according to Kyler, who suggests that – with a new arena on the way – Bucks ownership may not be as worried about the rising cost of team salary as you’d expect.
The Bucks and Magic may let the market drive the respective prices on Parker and Aaron Gordon, according to Kyler. With Orlando’s new management group looking to shed cap dollars, the team will be wary of overpaying Gordon. Kyler also notes that the Magic could be open to the possibility of a sign-and-trade if Gordon wants to play elsewhere. However, sign-and-trades can be particularly tricky to pull off for RFAs getting big raises due to the Base Year Compensation rule, so that may be a long shot.
The prevailing thought on Dante Exum is that he’ll be back with the Jazz, though likely not on a long-term deal, says Kyler.
In order to pry Marcus Smart away from the Celtics, it might take an offer sheet at least in the range of $12-14MM per year, per Kyler.
The Kings are worth watching as a possible suitor for Lakers big man Julius Randle, though many people expect the Mavericks to be the team “on Randle’s doorstep” when free agency opens on July 1, Kyler writes.
Clint Capela (Rockets), Zach LaVine (Bulls), Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers), and Rodney Hood (Cavaliers) are among the RFAs considered more likely than not to stay with their current teams, according to Kyler. For more details on those players – along with an item on Suns guard Elfrid Payton – be sure to check out Kyler’s full piece.

Central Notes: Nance, Parker, Booker

March 6th, 2018 at 5:56pm CST by marksuleymanov

Lar ry Nance Jr. has never been a prolific three-pointer shooter, evidenced by his 12 career treys, but he is not scared to shoot the ball from the perimeter, Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com writes. Nance has made just one triple in seven attempts this season but he has impressed the Cavaliers in practice with his range.

Primarily known for his athleticism and defense, Nance did not bring a known mid-range game to Cleveland. Head coach Tyronn Lue admitted that he was not aware that Nance could shoot threes. With Tristan Thompson out for a while, Nance will see time at center and he is comfortable shooting from beyond the arc if he is given space.

“If they sag off me I will shoot it,” Nance told Cleveland.com this past Monday. “Obviously I’m not going to be K-Love with it or anything. But if they sag off me and don’t respect me as a shooter I feel completely comfortable (making them pay) and shooting it now.”

In a separate story, Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com writes that Nance will start until Thompson is healthy. Lue was encouraged by Nance’s contributions off the bench after he traded from the Lakers.

“I was just letting (Nance) get a chance to figure out our offense, our defense and what we want to do,” Lue said. “I liked what he did off the bench because we need that spark and that energy.”

Check out other Central Division notes below:

Jabari Parker‘s career has hit two major snags, both of them being torn ACLs that cost him significant playing time. He was reportedly close to an extension with the Bucks that would have paid him $18MM annually — while recovering from the second ACL injury — but it didn’t happen. As he approaches free agency, Parker’s future with the Bucks remains a dilemma in the short- and long-term, NBC Sports’ Dan Feldman writes.
Trevor Booker was waived by the Sixers and while he had other options, he chose to sign with the Pacers. Booker’s defense and rebounding is something the Pacers have been looking to add, Clifton Brown of the Indianapolis Star writes. “I had a few other choices,” Booker said. “I factored in everything. I thought I could come to this team and bring something positive.”
The Pistons have been hampered by injuries all season, primarily in the backcourt. Those injuries have impacted the team’s perimeter shooting, but head coach Stan Van Gundy does not want to use injuries as an excuse, Rod Beard of the Detroit News writes. “I’m not going to make an excuse on that. We’ve got good players and we should be playing better. We’re capable of playing better and I think we will play better,” Van Gundy said. “Nobody wants to be without guys for long periods of time, but injuries are a fact of life in the NBA and you have to play through them.”

2018 Free Agent Stock Watch: Milwaukee Bucks

February 16th, 2018 at 9:17pm CST by Austin Kent

For the first time in over a decade, the Bucks have an enviable core with an ambitious ceiling. That they’re on track for a second consecutive playoff berth with one of the game’s hottest young stars is a testament to the principles put in place under the franchise’s new regime.

Of course the Bucks didn’t win the lottery over night. The club that they’ve assembled – a merry band of overachievers who have overachieved so much they may actually just be regular achievers we’ve been underestimating all along – is deep and talented.

The small-market Bucks have committed to guys who work for them and necessarily so, but while that’s all fun and games when your team has Khris Middleton and John Henson locked into team-friendly contracts because they saw value, it stings a little when there’s $20.1MM tied up between Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic, with the luxury tax looming large.

Don’t get it twisted, the Bucks have tactfully leveraged their organization’s strength while minimizing environmental challenges outside of their control. The only downside? Now that the Bucks have a core worth hanging onto – players that they’re committed to and reliant upon – managing finances becomes that much more important.

Sean Kilpatrick, SG, 28 (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $0.8MM contract in 2018
Kilpatrick showed that he could put points on the board in an extended stay with the Nets between 2015 and 2017. While he hasn’t had much of an opportunity to showcase his scoring skills so far in Milwaukee, you can bet the organization knows what he’s capable of when given a chance to fill reserve minutes out of the backcourt. Given the team’s financial constraints, it would be wise to lock in an affordable depth piece like Kilpatrick when given the opportunity.

Jabari Parker, PF, 23 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $22.2MM contract in 2014
A pair of ACL injuries have cast doubt on Parker’s value as a pending restricted free agent. While once it seemed extremely plausible – if not borderline inevitable – that the forward would draw a max contract out of somebody, that’s no sure thing in 2018. We wrote earlier this month that the Bucks seemed reluctant to offer Parker any more than $18MM per year. If Parker’s play from now until the end of the 2017/18 campaign justifies more than that, the franchise would need to get creative in order to bring him back in a scenario that’s financially palatable for ownership. Expect Parker to land an offer sheet from one of the few teams with cap space this summer, and for the Bucks to shed salary in order to comfortably match it and avoid the tax, even if it costs them an asset to do so. While Parker can’t be credited for much of Milwaukee’s recent success, he’s a big reason why they have such an intriguing ceiling.

Jason Terry, SG, 40 (Down) – Signed to a one-year, $2.3MM contract in 2017
There’s no doubt that having veteran leadership in the locker room is beneficial to young players. Still, while Terry could conceivably present as an affordable option for rounding out the depth chart next summer, his on-court value is minimal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Rumors: Hernangomez, Bucks, Hawks, Raps

February 6th, 2018 at 3:07pm CST by Luke Adams

Word broke on Monday that Willy Hernangomez‘s representatives have asked the Knicks to trade the young center, though as Marc Berman and Zach Braziller of The New York Post note, that trade request was hardly shocking news. Hernangomez had publicly said several times already this season that he’d welcome a move to another team if that’s what it took for him to receive more playing time.

According to Ian Begley of ESPN, more than a dozen teams have expressed some level of interest in Hernangomez, and several of those clubs have put specific offers on the table for the Knicks. Still, New York’s front office won’t give Hernangomez away — the team is seeking a significant return for the 23-year-old, per Begley.

One source who has spoken to Knicks higher-ups expects the team to hang onto Hernangomez through the deadline unless a deal returns better long-term assets than the young big man, according to Berman and Braziller. Meanwhile, Begley notes that the Knicks are confident they’ll be able to reintegrate Hernangomez if they don’t trade him by Thursday.

As we wait to see what Hernangomez’s future holds, here are more trade-related notes and rumors from around the NBA:

Even after acquiring Tyler Zeller, the Bucks remain interested in Clippers center DeAndre Jordan, tweets Gery Woelfel of The Racine Journal Times. However, according to Woelfel, Milwaukee is unwilling to give up a key piece like Malcolm Brogdon, Khris Middleton, or Jabari Parker in exchange for Jordan.
While the Hawks are ready to deal, GM Travis Schlenk tells Michael Cunningham of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he doesn’t feel pressure to make moves, since the club has already stockpiled a number of extra draft picks. “We are willing to use our (cap) flexibility if we can get assets we want,” Schlenk said. “But I feel like we’ve done enough early on (that) we have the flexibility to sit back and not take too much (salary) on because we have so many picks. We don’t feel pressure to do anything because of that, but if there is an opportunity that makes sense for us we are certainly going to take a hard look at it.”
Michael Grange of Rogers Sportsnet (Twitter link) is hearing “more and more” that the Raptors will be minor players at the trade deadline, if they’re active at all. Toronto has no interest in Tyreke Evans and views RFA-to-be Rodney Hood as too pricey, says Grange.
Daryl Morey and the Rockets view the buyout period as just as likely to result in a roster addition as the trade market, per Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. The Rockets still may complete a deal this week, with an emergency backup guard atop their wish list, but they want to hang onto their 2020 first-round pick, says Feigen. Houston’s 2019 first-round pick can’t be moved, since the team has already traded its 2018 first-rounder.

Bucks Rumors: Parker, Kidd, Giannis, Trades

February 1st, 2018 at 2:27pm CST by Luke Adams

The Bucks made headlines last week by parting ways with head coach Jason Kidd, and another major event for the franchise is right around the corner, as Jabari Parker is set to return on Friday from last year’s ACL injury. With Parker poised to get back on the court, ESPN’s Zach Lowe takes a look at the situation in Milwaukee, sharing a couple interesting tidbits on the 22-year-old’s contract situation.

According to Lowe, the Bucks and Parker discussed an extension last offseason that would have been worth $54MM over three years. The former No. 2 overall pick wasn’t willing to accept that offer, so the two sides discussed other possible deals, including shorter- and longer-term scenarios. However, Milwaukee’s per-year limit was always right around $18MM, says Lowe.

Parker – who views himself as a max player, per Lowe – will now have at least a couple months to prove that he’s worth a massive investment, though it remains to be seen how high the Bucks will be prepared to go this summer when Parker reaches restricted free agency.

Here’s more from Lowe on the Bucks:

Providing a few more details on Kidd’s ouster, Lowe says that the former Bucks head coach had a “sometimes strained” relationship with the team’s medical staff, and that some players wanted more communication and support from Kidd.
Although there were reports indicating that Giannis Antetokounmpo was “devastated” as a result of Kidd’s firing, the move isn’t expected to result in a lingering rift between the club and its star player, writes Lowe.
Prior to acquiring Eric Bledsoe from the Suns, the Bucks discussed a similar deal with the Hawks for Dennis Schroder, league sources tell Lowe.
The Bucks continue to be active in trade discussions, but talks with the Clippers for DeAndre Jordan haven’t gotten anywhere near serious, according to Lowe. The ESPN scribe suggests that Derrick Favors might be a decent fit for Milwaukee, but isn’t sure whether the team has the right assets to appeal to the Jazz.

Kyler’s Latest: G. Hill, Kings, Mavs, Randle, Parker

January 31st, 2018 at 2:03pm CST by Luke Adams

In the wake of this week’s massive Blake Griffin trade, Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders assessed the trade market in an effort to determine which teams may be the next to make moves. We covered some of Kyler’s Clippers-related items on Tuesday, and a Rodney Hood/Stanley Johnson note from his article was reported elsewhere, but there are plenty more tidbits worth rounding up. Let’s dive in…

The rumored deal involving George Hill between the Cavaliers and Kings isn’t dead yet, but both teams are exploring the market in search of trades they might like more, per Kyler. The two teams could revisit a Hill swap on or before February 8.
The Kings still appear willing to move a young player or two for a first-round pick, with Skal Labissiere and Malachi Richardson among those trade candidates, Kyler writes.
The Mavericks‘ preferred target is Julius Randle, but they may start to seriously consider Labissiere if the Lakers don’t engage in Randle talks, says Kyler. Still, Mavs sources tell Kyler that they place a lot of value on first-round picks, so it sounds like they’ll be reluctant to move one.
Bucks sources have “aggressively downplayed” the idea that the team will trade forward Jabari Parker, who is returning this week from an ACL injury. However, the team acknowledges that its cap situation could complicate contract talks with the former No. 2 overall pick this offseason. Bucks ownership appears willing to commit to Parker if management wants to lock him up, according to Kyler, who notes that the forward would be a prime trade chip if Milwaukee wants to make a splash for a big-name center.

Jabari Parker Cleared To Play Friday

January 29th, 2018 at 8:27pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Bucks forward Jabari Parker has been medically cleared to play and is scheduled to make his season debut Friday, the team tweets.

Parker has made steady progress throughout the season to get to this point. He suffered the second ACL tear of his career last February.

Parker was expected back before the All-Star break and this confirms the timetable. “Within these couple weeks. I think it’s in the air for now,” Parker told the Associated Press last week.

Central Notes: Parker, Turner, Wade

January 28th, 2018 at 7:22pm CST by Austin Kent

Injured Bucks forward Jabari Parker is still expected back in the lineup the week before the February 18 All-Star Game, Genaro Armas of The Associated Press writes. The 22-year-old is already practicing with the team without restrictions.

Parker’s return will come weeks after the Bucks fired the only NBA coach he ever knew. While there are conflicting accounts about Parker’s relationship with Jason Kidd, there’s no denying that he had a close one with assistant coach Frank Johnson, who was let go after Kidd was.

“It was kind of really hard for me to accept,” Parker told Matt Velazquez of The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, noting that he saw Johnson every day and looked forward to their time together. “Not having him by my side is really going to be hard for me.”

There’s more from the Central Division:

After a nine-game absence, Pacers big man Myles Turner needs to shake some rust off and work his way back into game shape, Clifton Brown of The Indianapolis Star writes. “You could see that he was a little hesitant,” head coach Nate McMillan said. “He had an open look that I’ve never seen Myles pass up. We knew he would be a little rusty. We wanted to be patient with him and really watch him.“
The Cavaliers expect Dwyane Wade back in the lineup on Tuesday, Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com writes. The guard has been out of action for two games following the death of his agent Henry Thomas. Thomas is said to have served as a father figure for Wade.
The Bulls have seen their offense stagnate without Kris Dunn, Mark Strotman of NBC Sports Chicago writes. The sophomore guard’s absence has really driven home the impact that he has on the team when healthy.