Jeff Teague

Kyler On Paul, Teague, Jack, Billups, Bledsoe

In his latest NBA AM piece for HoopsWorld, Steve Kyler focuses on the playoff point guards that may be heading for free agency once their respective seasons end. Kyler has tidbits on those players, as well as notes on Eric Bledsoe and Phil Jackson, so let's check out the highlights:

  • Chris Paul is essentially a lock to re-sign with the Clippers and he'll have a "tremendous amount of input" in the team's roster moves and overall direction.
  • The Hawks will extend a qualifying offer to Jeff Teague, and while the club plans to keep its options open, it's unlikely that Teague will end up leaving Atlanta.
  • Jerryd Bayless is expected to decline his player option in search of a longer-term contract.
  • There's mutual interest in a new deal between Jarrett Jack and the Warriors, and the team will have Jack's Bird Rights, but the Warriors figure to be well into the tax unless they can make a cost-cutting move or two, which could complicate negotiations.
  • If Chauncey Billups doesn't return to the Clippers, retirement is more likely for him than signing with another club.
  • The Bucks will definitely match almost any offer sheet signed by Brandon Jennings, though if he receives the max from a rival suitor, Milwaukee will "have to seriously look at that."
  • While Bledsoe is expected to be an offseason trade candidate, Clippers sources are adamant that they don't need to make a decision on Bledsoe until the summer of 2014, or at least next year's trade deadline.
  • With a handful of head coaching jobs already opened up, Jackson's name will pop up frequently in the next several weeks, but Kyler hears that the odds of the 11-time champion accepting a coaching job aren't great.

Qualifying Offers And The Starter Criteria

As we explained a year ago when the 2011/12 regular season ended, new details of the league's Collective Bargaining Agreement have slightly modified the usual process for restricted free agency. The qualifying offers teams extend to potential restricted free agents are now based, in some instances, on a newly-defined "starter criteria."

The CBA describes a "starter" as either starting 41 games or playing 2,000 minutes in a season, and rewards players for meeting those criteria. If a player achieved one of those benchmarks in the season prior to his free agency, or averaged one of those benchmarks in the two seasons leading up to his free agency, his qualifying offer will be affected as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter critera will receive a same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
  • A played picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.

Because the 2009 class of first-round picks will be hitting restricted free agency this season, the 2009/10 rookie scale will dictate the qualifying offers received. Using RealGM's rookie scale chart for 2009, we can calculate the qualifying offers as follows:

  • 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick is $4,531,459.
  • 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick is $4,135,391.
  • 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick is $2,785,146.

So which players will be affected by this new rule this summer? Using our list of free agents (restricted FAs are marked with R), the above calculations, and the starter criteria, this offseason's modified qualifying offers are listed below. Teams will have to offer these free agents a one-year contract worth the listed amount to make them restricted — otherwise they'll become unrestricted and can freely sign with any club.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet the starter criteria and will now be eligible for a QO of $4,135,391 (previously anticipated QO in parentheses):

Players picked between 10th and 30th who met the starter criteria and will now be eligible for a QO of $4,531,459 (previously anticipated QO in parentheses):

Other free agents with three years or less in the NBA who met the starter criteria and will be eligible for a QO of $2,785,146:

  • None. Although restricted free agents like Nikola Pekovic (Timberwolves) and Tiago Splitter (Spurs) also met the starter criteria, both players are already in line for higher QOs because they were signed to larger deals using cap space (Pekovic) or the mid-level exception (Splitter).

Odds & Ends: Grizzlies, Redick, Magic

Ric Bucher of CSN Bay Area (Sulia link) hears that the trade rumor involving Rudy Gay to the Suns in exchange for Jared Dudley and Michael Beasley was leaked in order to facilitate more offers from around the league. In terms of the Grizzlies dealing Gay for luxury-tax purposes, Bucher notes that the Wizards and Warriors only have trade pieces that would relieve Memphis of the super luxury tax in two years, but not after this season. You can find more of tonight's miscellaneous notes from the Association here:

  • David Baumann of Bright House Sports Network tweets that the Celtics covet J.J. Redick as a possible trade target before February's trade deadline. 
  • Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel provides a primer of what the Magic front office has to think about heading into next month's deadline. He thinks that GM Rob Hennigan might want to deal for more young players and draft picks while shedding salary, adding that Redick, Glen Davis, Arron Afflalo, Jameer Nelson, and Josh McRoberts are among the team's most tradeable assets. Lastly, Robbins thinks that Orlando is unlikely to part with Nikola Vucevic and that the team has almost no interest in dealing for Rudy Gay
  • Noting that Chris Johnson had been a member of Timberwolves' training camp before the season, Ray Richardson of the Pioneer Press says that his familiarity with the team provided an advantage during the team's search for help at center. 
  • The recent struggles of Nuggets swingman Andre Iguodala prompted him to admit after today's practice that he's "probably behind the curve" and has had trouble finding his comfort level this season (Benjamin Hochman of The Denver Post reports).  
  • HoopsWorld's Alex Kennedy (Sulia link) anticipates a quiet trade deadline for the NBA considering a busy offseason that saw 31 deals involving 96 players. 
  • Alex Raskin of HoopsWorld looks at Jeff Teague, one of four players who are guaranteed to remain in Atlanta beyond this season, as a viable long-term investment for the Hawks

Eastern Notes: Rich Paul, Magic, Hibbert

You can find the miscellaneous links we've gathered up out of the Eastern Conference below: 

Odds & Ends: Bledsoe, Paul, McDyess, Pacers

HoopsWorld's Eric Pincus examines the depth of the Clippers, and says that the team has received numerous inquiries about reserve point guard Eric Bledsoe. The Clippers won't consider moving Bledsoe until they sign Chris Paul to a long-term contract, Pincus hears, adding that most executives expect Paul, an unrestricted free agent next summer, to stay with the team. There's plenty of other news from around the Association on the first weekend of the regular season, so let's dive right in.

Extension Notes: Gibson, Jennings, Evans

Six players from the 2009 draft class signed extensions before Wednesday's deadline. James Harden, fresh off being traded to the Rockets, signed a five-year extension in Houston. Meanwhile, the 76ers signed Jrue Holiday to a four-year deal, as did the Bulls with Taj Gibson, the Warriors with Stephen Curry, the Nuggets with Ty Lawson, and the Raptors with DeMar DeRozan. Here are a few links dealing with the aftermath of these deals.

  • The Daily Herald's Mike McGraw breaks down the financial implications of the Bulls' extension with Gibson.
  • Sean Deveney of the Sporting News looks at several players who didn't receive extensions, including Brandon Jennings, Tyreke Evans, and Jeff Teague. He says this season will be important to them in setting their value.
  • Deveney also writes that many prospective restricted free agents are seen as no more than backups, which could affect their worth on the open market.

Kyler On Harden, Jennings, Holiday, Rockets

Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld shared a few updates on extension-eligible players in his NBA AM column this morning, and also tweeted a few notes about the Rockets' options in free agency next summer. Let's dive right in and round up the highlights….

  • James Harden and the Rockets will almost certainly reach an agreement on a five-year extension today or tomorrow. It's just a matter of whether it will be for the true max or slightly below that.
  • If Tyreke Evans, who won't be extended this week, struggles early in the season, he could become a trade candidate for the Kings.
  • According to Kyler, Brandon Jennings' camp is seeking an extension worth $9-10MM annually, which the Bucks aren't interested in. Those numbers are a little surprising to me — I'd think the Bucks wouldn't mind a deal in that neighborhood, while Jennings would be seeking something closer to the max.
  • The Sixers and Jrue Holiday don't appear headed for an extension this week. Kyler says Philadelphia's offer was worth about $8-9MM annually.
  • The "broad strokes" are there for an agreement between Ty Lawson and the Nuggets. Now it's just a matter of working out the final value of the contract.
  • The odds of Taj Gibson and the Bulls reaching an extension agreement today or tomorrow are about 50/50 at best.
  • The Hawks have told Jeff Teague that he's still part of their long-term plans, but the team wants to maintain flexibility next summer, so he won't be extended now. The Bobcats have a similar stance with Gerald Henderson and Byron Mullens.
  • In a series of tweets, Kyler says the Rockets are unlikely to be serious players for Josh Smith in free agency next summer, unless they trade for him. The fifth year that the team holding Smith's Bird Rights will be able to offer could be a dealbreaker, according to Kyler, who adds that the forward appears happy with the Hawks for now.
  • Kyler expects the Rockets to take a similar approach to what they did this past offseason, pursuing restricted free agents and perhaps making a poison pill offer or two. Paul Millsap could also be a potential target, says Kyler (Twitter links).

Stein On Extension Candidates, Boozer, Paul

Earlier this week, TNT's David Aldridge shared the latest rumors and rumblings he'd heard about this year's fourth-year extension candidates. ESPN.com's Marc Stein follows suit today, and while much of what he's hearing is along the same lines as Aldridge's updates, there's still enough new info that it's worth rounding up the highlights….

  • Despite chairman Jerry Reinsdorf's apparent aversion to early extensions, it's still likely that the Bulls and Taj Gibson work something out this month, and that the team will eventually release Carlos Boozer using the amensty clause.
  • An extension for Ty Lawson remains more a question of "when" than "if," sources tells Stein.
  • The Raptors seem to "want to be wowed" by DeMar DeRozan in the 2012/13 season before committing to him long-term.
  • The Bobcats aren't expected to lock Gerald Henderson up to an extension unless the terms are very team-friendly.
  • Although the Hawks like Jeff Teague, they'll likely hold off on committing future cap space to a point guard until they're 100% sure they can't lure Chris Paul to Atlanta.
  • Extensions for Darren Collison and Rodrigue Beaubois can safely be ruled out as the Mavericks attempt to preserve next summer's cap room.
  • Stein also believes Stephen Curry and James Harden are likely to be extended, and that a new deal for Jrue Holiday is possible. However, he classifies the rest of this offseason's extension candidates as unlikely to receive long-term contracts by Halloween.

Aldridge On Extension Candidates

The latest Morning Tip piece from TNT's David Aldridge is up at NBA.com, and focuses on the first round of the 2009 draft class, most of whom are eligible for contract extensions this month. However, Aldridge doesn't expect many new deals to be inked, since the new CBA doesn't give players a ton of incentive to sign early.

"Now (that) you can only give the same amount of years that they can get next summer, the player isn't as interested," one team executive told Aldridge. "Now, you have no advantage. I used to be able to say 'I can give you a year more today than you can get next year. So let's talk about a deal and maybe the number is more realistic.' But they've taken that away."

Here's what Aldridge has heard on a number of extension candidates:

  • The Kings will "probably not" be offering Tyreke Evans an extension, Aldridge hears from a source.
  • Things are "pretty quiet" on the Brandon Jennings front, and Aldridge isn't expecting him to work out a long-term extension with the Bucks.
  • DeMar DeRozan and the Raptors aren't close to a deal, but have been talking for weeks. Aldridge cautions not to rule out the possibility of the two sides reaching an agreement.
  • Aldridge does, however, essentially rule out extensions for Austin Daye (Pistons) and James Johnson (Kings).
  • Jrue Holiday's agent will touch base with the 76ers later this week about a possible extension.
  • Ty Lawson of the Nuggets is the one player that everyone around the league believes will sign a long-term deal by Halloween.
  • The Hawks are talking to Jeff Teague about a new deal, but Aldridge thinks it's unlikely the team commits to anything yet when it could have so much cap space available next summer.
  • Agent Mark Bartelstein on Taj Gibson and the Bulls: "They've made it clear they'd like to sign Taj. They're making an effort, and so are we… if we can get something done that everybody feels good about, great. If not, I'm sure he'll have a great year."

Extension Candidate: Jeff Teague

This will be a critical season for Jeff Teague, which might make the remaining two months of the offseason even more important. The Hawks brought in serious competition at the point guard position when they traded for Devin Harris. The pair put up similar numbers last season, with Harris averaging 11.3 points, 5.0 assists and 1.9 turnovers per game with a 16.0 PER for the Jazz, while Teague put up 12.6 PPG and 4.9 APG to go with 2.0 turnovers per game and a 15.8 PER. GM Danny Ferry gave an initial vote of confidence to Teague, as Lang Greene of HoopsWorld wrote earlier this summer. 

“He’s still a young player,” Ferry said. “Last year was the first time where he just played. He got to play, totally green lighted. It will be interesting to see how he matures this year and continues to develop with things. It will be more his team. We don’t have Joe (Johnson). We don’t have Marvin (Williams). It will be more of Jeff’s team than it has ever been. I think he’s capable of stepping in and doing a good job with that.”

Teague was third behind Joe Johnson and Josh Smith in minutes played last season, so between that and Ferry's statement, it appears he'll get the initial nod as starter during training camp. That arrangement might not last. Johnson has suggested he and Harris could play together in the backcourt, as Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote, but with Lou Williams and Kyle Korver around, minutes at the two-guard spot will be tough to come by in Atlanta. The uncertainty should be enough to prompt Teague and agent Mike Conley Sr. to gauge Ferry's interest in a long-term extension before the October 31st deadline to do so. Though it would be a hedge against the 24-year-old's continued improvement in his fourth NBA season, an extension could provide security and a leg up on Harris, who's set to be an unrestricted free agent after this season.

Teague's case centers around his play since the 2011 playoffs, when he stepped in as the starter for an injured Kirk Hinrich and averaged 11.8 PPG and 3.5 APG while shooting 51.4% in six postseason contests. He remained in the starting lineup for all 66 games last season, even when Hinrich was healthy, and drastically outdid his numbers of 4.2 PPG and 1.8 APG in 11.9 minutes per game over his first two seasons. His peripheral statistics demonstrate that his increased production has not simply been a function of more playing time, as his true shooting percentage (.551), turnover percentage (15.1) and win shares per 48 minutes (.131) were all better last season than in either of his first two years.

Despite that improvement and Ferry's stated confidence, the Hawks are likely to be a reluctant partner in extension talks. The team appears set on clearing space for the future, with only about $18.484MM committed for 2013/14. Harris, a former All-Star, has struggled in recent seasons, but at age 29 is still a reliable option at the point capable of delivering a career year. Given their similarities, it would seem wise for the Hawks to sit back and let the play of Harris and Teague this season dictate who they'll re-sign this summer. Even if Teague, given his age, appears to be the better long-term option, he'll be a restricted free agent next summer, when Chris Paul, Ty Lawson, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, Jose Calderon, Darren Collison and others could all be part of a crowded buyer's market.

Teague's agent needn't look far for a comparison, as son Mike Conley Jr. averaged 12.0 PPG and 5.3 APG with 2.1 turnovers per game and a 16.8 PER in his third season back in 2009/10, numbers similar to Teague's last year. Conley got a five-year, $40MM extension from the Grizzlies, but that was under the old CBA. Teague isn't eligible for a five-year extension in the current set-up, and given the Hawks' leverage, I doubt they'd go for $8MM a year. If Teague would be willing to settle for $6MM a year over three seasons, a deal that would bring him to unrestricted free agency at age 28, I think that might get the job done.