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Rockets Exercising Team Option On Kenyon Martin Jr.

June 29th, 2023 at 9:12am CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets are exercising their $1,930,681 team option on Kenyon Martin Jr. for the 2023/24 season, reports Kelly Iko of The Athletic (Twitter link).

Martin, 22, has been with Houston for the last three years and had arguably his best NBA season in 2022/23, appearing in all 82 games and making 49 starts. The 6’6″ forward established new career highs in points (12.7), rebounds (5.5), and assists (1.5) per game, as well as field-goal percentage (56.9%).

While the Rockets’ decision to pick up Martin’s option may look like a no-brainer on paper, it wasn’t a lock. Exercising the option will put the former second-round pick on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024, whereas turning it down and issuing him a qualifying offer would’ve allowed Houston to negotiate with Martin as a restricted free agent this summer.

Still, there are plenty of reasons why it made sense for the Rockets to pick up the option. Keeping Martin on a minimum-salary cap hit will allow the club to maximize its league-high cap room, which projects to exceed $60MM. Martin will also immediately become eligible to be extended or traded — he has consistently been mentioned in trade rumors for over a year.

In other Rockets news, according to Iko (Twitter link), the team will also issue two-way qualifying offers to Darius Days and Trevor Hudgins, making them restricted free agents.

Because Days and Hudgins were NBA rookies in 2022/23 and finished the season on two-way contracts, their qualifying offers will each be the equivalent of another one-year, two-way deal with a small partial guarantee.

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Trade Rumors: LaVine, Garland, Rockets, Clippers, Blazers, Bucks

June 28th, 2023 at 11:38am CST by Luke Adams

The Bulls have engaged with “several” teams about the possibility of a Zach LaVine trade this offseason, but haven’t gotten serious about moving the high-scoring guard, reports Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports.

As Fischer explains, LaVine’s pricey long-term contract will make potential trade partners wary about giving up a substantial package of players and draft picks, but the Bulls would be seeking a return that far outweighs what Washington got for Bradley Beal last week.

Fischer names the Knicks and Mavericks as possible teams to watch for LaVine, but immediately throws cold water on the likelihood of either club emerging as a legitimate suitor in the near future. New York seems to be taking a more patient approach to building its roster, according to Fischer, who adds that Dallas was viewed as a more serious threat for LaVine before acquiring Kyrie Irving as a co-star for Luka Doncic.

Here are a few more trade-related notes and rumors from around the NBA:

  • Despite some speculation to the contrary, the Cavaliers haven’t had any discussions about trading Darius Garland and have no intention to move the All-Star point guard, sources tell Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com (Twitter link). The Cavs appear focused on pursuing roster moves that don’t involve trading any of their four cornerstone players (Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen).
  • In addition to Kenyon Martin Jr., the Rockets have gauged potential trade interest in young players like Usman Garuba and Josh Christopher, sources tell Fischer.
  • Norman Powell and Marcus Morris have both been mentioned in recent days as trade candidates. According to Fischer, the Clippers have been canvassing the league to see what a package of both players might return.
  • No clear suitors have emerged for guard Anfernee Simons, who looks like the Trail Blazers‘ most obvious trade chip, says Fischer. According to Fischer, the Blazers and Cavaliers had some brief talks about Nassir Little prior to the draft, but didn’t gain any real traction toward a deal.
  • ESPN’s Zach Lowe said on the latest episode of his Lowe Post podcast that the Bucks had some “relatively serious” internal conversations about John Collins before he was dealt to Utah. “I do think Milwaukee is looking around for, like, ‘Can we get a little injection of randomness? (An) injection of, like, bounce and athleticism, and just change?'” Lowe said. “Maybe just change more than anything else. But I don’t think (the Collins interest) went anywhere serious.”
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Trade Rumors: Lillard, Valanciunas, N. Powell, Wizards, K. Martin

June 27th, 2023 at 11:47am CST by Luke Adams

Following Monday’s meeting with Damian Lillard and his agent, Trail Blazers general manager Joe Cronin put out a brief statement indicating that the team remains committed to building around its star point guard. Appearing on ESPN’s Get Up on Tuesday morning (YouTube link), Brian Windhorst provided some additional information on how that meeting went.

“This was the meeting that a lot of the league was watching to see if Damian Lillard requested a trade, and he absolutely did not,” Windhorst said (hat tip to RealGM). “From what I understand, the tenor of the meeting was that he doesn’t want to put pressure on the Blazers, that he wants to see what they do in free agency, and he’s going to give them that time do that.

“This is an interesting strategy move. He said at the end of the season ‘Get me veterans.’ The draft came and went, no veterans. He’s still not pressing, from what I have been told. He’s still going to give the Blazers every opportunity to work through this free agency process this week, whether it’s through trades or signing players.”

As Windhorst points out, given that no trade request from Lillard seems imminent, teams like the Heat – who were reportedly preparing to make a trade offer for the Blazers star – might have to move forward with their other offseason moves rather than hoping that Lillard’s situation will change.

“This is going to potentially cause some teams that were going to make offers for him to have move on with business,” Windhorst said. “They were waiting to see whether Dame Lillard was going to be on the market before they started to make moves this week. Now, some teams are going to have to make a decision either go forward or wait around. Lillard is going to wait around.”

Here are a few more trade rumors from around the NBA:

  • The Pelicans have made center Jonas Valanciunas available in trade talks as they seek out a big man who is more mobile and more of a rim protector, according to Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports, who says New Orleans inquired with the Cavaliers about Jarrett Allen‘s availability. Cleveland has reportedly rebuffed all inquiries for Allen.
  • Clippers swingman Norman Powell is another veteran who is considered available on the trade market, Fischer reports, adding that Powell’s name popped up in rumors when L.A. was trying to acquire Chris Paul from Washington.
  • Speaking of the Wizards, even after flipping Paul to Golden State, they’re still looking to move on from one or two more of their veteran point guards. Sources tell Fischer that Washington is seeking draft assets for Monte Morris and/or Delon Wright.
  • The Rockets have been engaging in more trade talks involving Kenyon Martin Jr. since last week’s draft, Fischer writes. While it’s not clear exactly which teams Houston has talked to recently, Fischer says the Hawks, Suns, and Nets have been cited as possible suitors for Martin dating back to the trade deadline in February.
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Rockets Rumors: Core Players, Martin, Draft Picks, Thompson

June 21st, 2023 at 9:30am CST by Luke Adams

In trade talks with rival teams so far this offseason, the Rockets have held firm on their position that they don’t intend to move anyone from their young core, says Kelly Iko of The Athletic. According to Iko, that core is made up of guard Jalen Green, forwards Jabari Smith and Tari Eason, and center Alperen Sengun.

Another young Rockets player, Kenyon Martin Jr., has been “deemed attainable internally” if the team receives a strong offer, per Iko, who says that Martin has continued to draw interest from potential trade partners as of late.

Houston will soon have to decide whether to exercise Martin’s minimum-salary team option for 2023/24, which would put him on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024. Declining the option would mean paying Martin a larger salary next season, but would allow the club to negotiate with him as a restricted free agent.

Here’s more from Iko on the Rockets:

  • Once viewed as a decision between Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore, the Rockets’ No. 4 pick now appears likelier to come down to Amen and Ausar Thompson, sources tell The Athletic. Iko is among the reporters who has heard rumblings about Whitmore’s stock slipping as the draft nears, and says his sources are becoming “increasingly confident” that Houston will keep the No. 4 pick and draft Amen Thompson.
  • Although the Rockets talked to Charlotte and Portland about moving up from No. 4, that’s unlikely to happen, Iko writes. Houston remains open to moving its lottery pick, but it would take a significant offer to get the team to seriously consider it. That sort of offer hasn’t been put on the table so far, though the Rockets have been offered good “starter-level” players, according to Iko.
  • The more research the Rockets’ front office has done on this draft class, the more impressed they’ve been with the talent available, says Iko, adding that the club now seems more likely to keep its No. 20 pick than to trade it. That’s still very much up in the air though — according to Iko, Houston has talked about trading up into the 10-18 range. If a deal to move up doesn’t materialize and the Rockets’ preferred targets aren’t available at No. 20, trading the pick would still be an option.
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Rockets Rumors: Harden, FA Targets, Thompson, Martin, Splitter

June 13th, 2023 at 3:01pm CST by Luke Adams

Although there have been several reports in recent weeks and months linking free agent guard James Harden to Houston, there have also been rumblings that the Rockets aren’t interested in giving the former MVP a maximum-salary contract, Michael Scotto of HoopsHype said on the HoopsHype podcast.

Scotto’s guest on the podcast, Kelly Iko of The Athletic, agrees with that statement, noting that Houston would like to add three or four veterans this offseason and doesn’t want to be using $45MM of its $60MM in cap room on a single player.

According to Iko, people within the Rockets’ organization – including players – and people close to Harden are fairly split on whether or not the 10-time All-Star will return to Houston, with some confident about the odds of a reunion and others skeptical. Skepticism is the dominant view among rival executives who have spoken to Steve Bulpett of Heavy.com — many of those execs expressed confusion about the fit, though some did suggest that a short-term deal might make some sense.

If the Rockets don’t land Harden and look elsewhere on the free agent market for a point guard, Iko views Fred VanVleet as a more likely target than Kyrie Irving. Both Iko and Scotto have also heard that Austin Reaves is a player Houston likes, though Reaves will be a restricted free agent and the Lakers are considered likely to match any offer sheets he signs.

Here’s more on the Rockets:

  • Iko views Brook Lopez as a bit of a “pipe dream” for Houston, since the veteran center seems likely to remain with the Bucks. Iko names Clint Capela, Kristaps Porzingis, Myles Turner, Josh Hart, Dillon Brooks, as Kelly Oubre as possible targets for the Rockets in free agency or via trades, though he again acknowledges that some of those options are more viable than others. Hart, for instance, is considered a strong bet to remain with the Knicks, as Scotto points out.
  • New head coach Ime Udoka will have “a huge say in who he coaches,” according to Iko, which could be an important factor as the Rockets consider which players to pursue most aggressively this offseason.
  • Iko believes Overtime Elite guard Amen Thompson will be the top prospect on Houston’s board if there are no surprises in the top three picks in the draft. Iko has heard the Rockets believe the gap between Thompson and Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson isn’t as big as the consensus suggests.
  • Coming off a strong season, Kenyon Martin Jr. would “prefer to get paid now,” either as a restricted free agent or on an extension, says Iko. However, it remains to be seen whether Martin is in the Rockets’ long-term plans or if he might end up back on the trade block in the coming weeks. It’s possible Houston could postpone its decision on Martin, simply exercising his minimum-salary team option and determining during the season whether to try to extend or trade him.
  • According to Iko, Tiago Splitter, who worked with Udoka in Brooklyn and played with him in San Antonio, may be a candidate to join the Rockets’ coaching staff — especially if the team’s pursuit of Aaron Miles doesn’t pan out.
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Rockets Notes: Martin, Stone, Rookies, Next Coach

April 10th, 2023 at 7:19pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Rockets small forward Kenyon Martin Jr. has endeared himself to Houston with his play this season. As we’ve previously noted, the team has a variety of options for how it can retain the 6’6″ swingman into next season.

The Rockets hold a $1.93MM team option on Martin for the 2023/24 season that they could opt to exercise, though that would put him on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024. Turning down the option would allow Houston to make him a restricted free agent this summer. Martin is also extension-eligible.

As Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (subscription required) writes, while the Rockets are weighing their various options, Martin is trying to focus only on what he can control.

“If there’s a conversation that happens between us, that’s the most that can happen,” Martin said. “There’s nothing I can really do to control that side of it. Whatever they want to do, whether it’s this year or next year, whatever it may be, that’s on them. I’m just here to play basketball and hope it happens for the future.”

“Obviously, it’s important to me, contract extension and stuff like that,” Martin said. “There’s a lot of stuff that goes into it, the draft, a lot of stuff in the summer that goes into it. I can’t determine whether they’re going to … just wait until my fourth year is done. I’m just here to play and whether it’s this year or next year, I’m excited.”

There’s more out of Houston:

  • The future of Rockets general manager Rafael Stone may be on the line depending on how he performs during the 2023 offseason, according to Kelly Iko, Shams Charania, and Sam Amick of The Athletic. Stone will need to hire a new coach, draft well, and figure out how to use over $60MM in available cap space. “It could be a make or break summer for [Stone],” a source told The Athletic.
  • Rockets rookies Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, TyTy Washington Jr. had an intense first NBA season with Houston, writes Feigen in another piece. “Just the ups and downs of it — I don’t think anything prepares you for it,” Eason said. “You know it’s 82 games, so you’re not going to have a great night every night, whereas in college, there was a third of that. So you know, you could kind of dwell on your losses and things like that a little bit more.” Smith responded similarly when asked about his thoughts on what stood out from his first pro season. “Just the long grind, the ups and downs of the season,” Smith said. “The bad things, the quick turnarounds, how important it is to stay in the gym, really work on your craft, don’t take days off, just get better every day.”
  • Stone revealed that the next Rockets head coach will have the opportunity to select their own staff, Iko reports (via Twitter). “That’s not gonna be my decision,” Stone said. “I think it’s important that the new coach picks that.”
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Rockets’ Martin Meets RFA Starter Criteria

March 28th, 2023 at 12:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Rockets forward Kenyon Martin Jr. has met the “starter criteria” for potential restricted free agents by being part of Houston’s starting lineup for at least 41 games this season.

When a player meets the starter criteria, the value of his qualifying offer increases. Martin’s QO at the end of this season would now be $5,216,324 (up from approximately $2.3MM), the equivalent of 100% of the rookie scale amount for a No. 21 pick from the 2019 draft class.

However, there’s no guarantee that Martin will actually become a restricted free agent at season’s end. The Rockets hold a $1.93MM team option on the 22-year-old for the 2023/24 season and could simply exercise that option to keep him under contract for another year.

That decision won’t be as simple as it appears on the surface though. Because this is Martin’s third NBA season, he would be eligible for restricted free agency this summer, but he’d become unrestricted if Houston picks up his option and postpones his free agency until 2024. In situations like this one, it can make sense for the club to turn down a team-friendly option in order to exert control over the player’s free agency process, rather than risk having him walk for nothing in a year.

In fact, the Rockets took that exact approach a year ago with Jae’Sean Tate, who had a 2022/23 team option but would have become an unrestricted free agent in 2023 if that option was picked up. After declining his option, Houston made Tate a restricted free agent and locked him up to a three-year, $20.6MM contract.

It remains to be seen what direction the Rockets will go with Martin, but the increased value of his qualifying offer will add a new wrinkle to the decision. If Houston turns down its team option on Martin, then tenders him a qualifying offer, he could accept the QO and put himself on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 anyway. That’s a more plausible path now that the QO has risen in value by nearly $3MM.

Martin has played in all 76 of the Rockets’ games this season, establishing new career highs in points (12.6), rebounds (5.5), and assists (1.5) per game, as well as field-goal percentage (57.2%). There were whispers in the fall that he spoke to management about a possible trade, but those rumors died down as he took on an increased role.

Martin was said in November to be open to a contract extension, so if they want to keep him, the Rockets will likely try to engage in extension negotiations to get a sense of his price before making a decision on his 2023/24 option.

Martin is the fourth potential restricted free agent to meet the starter criteria this season, joining P.J. Washington, Tre Jones, and Ayo Dosunmu. Cameron Johnson, Matisse Thybulle, and Grant Williams all still have a chance to get there before the regular season ends.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Southwest Division

March 8th, 2023 at 3:00pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southwest players.

Christian Wood, F/C, Mavericks

  • 2022/23: $14.32MM
  • 2023/24: UFA
  • Stock: Neutral

2022/23 has been a roller coaster season for Wood, whom the Mavs acquired in the offseason for their 2022 first-round pick and expiring contracts. He started the season coming off the bench and was providing quality offensive production, averaging 17.2 PPG and 7.8 RPG on .550/.402/.688 shooting through 26 games (26.3 MPG).

A handful of days after Maxi Kleber tore his hamstring, Wood was inserted into the starting lineup, averaging 20.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 2.4 BPG on .516/.367/.814 shooting in 16 games (33.4 MPG). The team went 9-7 during that span, but unfortunately Wood sustained a fractured left thumb that sidelined him for eight games.

In 12 games since he returned from injury, Wood has seen his role cut back significantly, averaging 13.1 PPG and 5.2 RPG on .457/.298/.860 shooting in 18.9 minutes per contest. Defensive concerns could be the main culprit, though I haven’t seen that publicly stated as of late.

The 27-year-old heard his name pop up in both extension and trade rumors leading up to the February 9 deadline, but neither came to fruition. He remains eligible for a four-year, $77MM extension until June 30, though that appears increasingly unlikely unless he plays a major role in a deep postseason run.

Kenyon Martin Jr., F, Rockets

  • 2022/23: $1.78MM
  • 2023/24: $1.93MM team option
  • Stock: Up

The No. 52 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Martin is averaging career highs with 12.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG while shooting a career-best 56.2% from the field through 65 games (26.9 MPG). The high flier is another player who saw his name mentioned in trade rumors early in the season, but obviously Houston decided to keep him.

Considering his team option for next season is only $1.93MM, it seems unlikely that the 22-year-old would enter free agency. So why is he on this list?

As our Luke Adams detailed last month, if the Rockets exercise their option for ‘23/24, Martin would become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. However, if they decline it, he would be a restricted free agent this summer, giving Houston more control. That’s what happened last summer with Martin’s teammate, Jae’Sean Tate.

Martin has appeared in every game this season for the Rockets, including 24 consecutive starts (32 total). If he starts nine of Houston’s 17 remaining games, he would reach the starter criteria and increase his qualifying offer to $5,216,324.

Dillon Brooks, G/F, Grizzlies

  • 2022/23: $11.4MM
  • 2023/24: UFA
  • Stock: Down

Brooks has always faced criticism for his poor shot selection. However, he has never been this inefficient — his 48.3% true shooting percentage is the second-worst mark in the NBA among 197 qualifying players, only ahead of Detroit’s Killian Hayes (44.7%).

There isn’t one particularly area to point to, because he’s struggling from everywhere: 51.6% at the rim (ninth percentile), 38.3% from mid-range (26th percentile), and 31.9% from three-point range (24th percentile), per DunksAndThrees.com.

On the other hand, Brooks is an outstanding defensive player who is tasked with guarding the league’s best perimeter scorers. The Grizzlies have been better with him on the court in each of the past three seasons.

For better or worse, a big part of the team’s identity is tied to Brooks’ brash attitude and confidence. At 27 years old, he’s theoretically in the middle of his prime. He will get a raise on his current deal, but he hasn’t helped himself on the offensive end of the court.

Tre Jones, G, Spurs

  • 2022/23: $1.78MM
  • 2023/24: RFA ($5.22MM qualifying offer)
  • Stock: Up

The No. 41 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Jones rarely saw the court in his first season, appearing in 37 games with an average of 7.3 MPG. He saw more action last season, but he was still limited to a reserve role, appearing in 69 games with averages of 6.0 PPG and 3.4 APG in 16.6 MPG.

After trading away Dejounte Murray in the offseason, San Antonio had a glaring hole at point guard. Jones has filled that void, averaging career highs in points (12.5), rebounds (3.6), assists (6.2), steals (1.3) and minutes (29.1) per game.

While he has struggled with scoring efficiency (51.2% TS, ninth-worst in the league among qualifying players), Jones does a very good job of taking care of the ball (3.67-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he’s only 23 years old, and he’s on a minimum contract. He has certainly outplayed that deal.

Jones has already met the starter criteria, which increased the value of his qualifying offer to $5,216,324. There’s an excellent chance the Spurs extend that offer to him and make him a restricted free agent.

Jaxson Hayes, F/C, Pelicans

  • 2022/23: $6.8MM
  • 2023/24: RFA ($7.74MM qualifying offer)
  • Stock: Down

A former lottery pick (No. 8 overall in 2019), Hayes has yet to live up to his draft status. He has only appeared in 38 games this season with a career-low 13.6 minutes per night, a strong sign that the Pelicans don’t view him as a long-term fit on the roster.

Hayes won’t turn 23 until May, so he has time to possibly turn his career around. He is 6’11” and is a strong run-and-jump athlete. His shot isn’t broken by any means – he’s at 72.0% from the line for his career, a solid mark for a big man.

He just looks lost on the court way too often, frequently making careless, head-scratching mistakes at inopportune times, things that drive coaches crazy. The odds of New Orleans extending Hayes a $7,744,600 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent are very low, so he will likely hit unrestricted free agency this summer.

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Jae Crowder: “I’d Do It All Over Again”

March 2nd, 2023 at 11:00am CST by Arthur Hill

Jae Crowder has no regrets about his holdout in Phoenix or the months of missed games as he waited for a trade to be completed, telling Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, “I’d do it all over again.” 

The Bucks had been considered among the favorites to land Crowder, but they weren’t able to work out a deal directly with the Suns. After Phoenix agreed to ship Crowder to Brooklyn in the Kevin Durant trade, Milwaukee offered draft assets to the Nets and everything was folded into a four-team deal.

The Bucks were thrilled to finally obtain Crowder, and they see him filling the defensive specialist role that P.J. Tucker did during their championship run in 2021. He has fit in seamlessly so far, averaging 19.3 minutes off the bench as Milwaukee has gone 4-0 since he has arrived.

“I think this team has what it takes to win a championship,” Crowder said. “That’s my main goal right now. I think once you win a championship, the rest of that stuff will take care of itself. My main goal, honestly, is not thinking about free agency or the summer. It’s all about winning the championship. I think that’s our locker room goal, and when I came into it, I knew that was the goal of the team.”

Crowder’s relationship with the Suns was reportedly damaged beyond repair when head coach Monty Williams informed him last offseason that he would no longer be a starter. Crowder refused to report to training camp, opting for individual workouts twice each day while he waited for a trade to materialize.

Sources tell Scotto that even when Cameron Johnson tore his meniscus in November, Crowder never considered returning to the Suns and the team didn’t discuss asking him to come back.

“Nah, there wasn’t a chance I was going to play there,” Crowder said. “Both sides knew that the road had come to an end. That came to an end way before Cam got hurt. I wasn’t going back on it, and they weren’t going back on it.”

Phoenix received offers for Crowder from several teams, Scotto adds. The Hawks, Rockets and Suns had exploratory discussions that would have sent Crowder to Atlanta along with Landry Shamet, while Eric Gordon and Kenyon Martin Jr. would have gone to Phoenix and John Collins would have wound up in Houston, but Scotto’s sources say that deal was never close to being completed.

Scotto adds that the Hawks also attempted to acquire Crowder and Shamet in a three-way trade that would have included the Jazz, but a disagreement over the draft picks Utah would have received prevented the teams from making progress. Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley would have gone to the Suns in that version of the deal.

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Checking In On RFAs-To-Be Who Have Met Starter Criteria

February 26th, 2023 at 10:49am CST by Luke Adams

As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.

A player drafted at No. 10  or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.

Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.

In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:

  • A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
  • A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.

A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.

However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.

The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.

So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:

Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.

As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.

Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:

(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)

White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.

Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.

It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.

Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.

Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.

Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.

With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.

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