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Rockets’ Martin Meets RFA Starter Criteria

March 28th, 2023 at 12:59pm CST by Luke Adams

Rockets forward Kenyon Martin Jr. has met the “starter criteria” for potential restricted free agents by being part of Houston’s starting lineup for at least 41 games this season.

When a player meets the starter criteria, the value of his qualifying offer increases. Martin’s QO at the end of this season would now be $5,216,324 (up from approximately $2.3MM), the equivalent of 100% of the rookie scale amount for a No. 21 pick from the 2019 draft class.

However, there’s no guarantee that Martin will actually become a restricted free agent at season’s end. The Rockets hold a $1.93MM team option on the 22-year-old for the 2023/24 season and could simply exercise that option to keep him under contract for another year.

That decision won’t be as simple as it appears on the surface though. Because this is Martin’s third NBA season, he would be eligible for restricted free agency this summer, but he’d become unrestricted if Houston picks up his option and postpones his free agency until 2024. In situations like this one, it can make sense for the club to turn down a team-friendly option in order to exert control over the player’s free agency process, rather than risk having him walk for nothing in a year.

In fact, the Rockets took that exact approach a year ago with Jae’Sean Tate, who had a 2022/23 team option but would have become an unrestricted free agent in 2023 if that option was picked up. After declining his option, Houston made Tate a restricted free agent and locked him up to a three-year, $20.6MM contract.

It remains to be seen what direction the Rockets will go with Martin, but the increased value of his qualifying offer will add a new wrinkle to the decision. If Houston turns down its team option on Martin, then tenders him a qualifying offer, he could accept the QO and put himself on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 anyway. That’s a more plausible path now that the QO has risen in value by nearly $3MM.

Martin has played in all 76 of the Rockets’ games this season, establishing new career highs in points (12.6), rebounds (5.5), and assists (1.5) per game, as well as field-goal percentage (57.2%). There were whispers in the fall that he spoke to management about a possible trade, but those rumors died down as he took on an increased role.

Martin was said in November to be open to a contract extension, so if they want to keep him, the Rockets will likely try to engage in extension negotiations to get a sense of his price before making a decision on his 2023/24 option.

Martin is the fourth potential restricted free agent to meet the starter criteria this season, joining P.J. Washington, Tre Jones, and Ayo Dosunmu. Cameron Johnson, Matisse Thybulle, and Grant Williams all still have a chance to get there before the regular season ends.

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Southwest Division

March 8th, 2023 at 3:00pm CST by Rory Maher

For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southwest players.

Christian Wood, F/C, Mavericks

  • 2022/23: $14.32MM
  • 2023/24: UFA
  • Stock: Neutral

2022/23 has been a roller coaster season for Wood, whom the Mavs acquired in the offseason for their 2022 first-round pick and expiring contracts. He started the season coming off the bench and was providing quality offensive production, averaging 17.2 PPG and 7.8 RPG on .550/.402/.688 shooting through 26 games (26.3 MPG).

A handful of days after Maxi Kleber tore his hamstring, Wood was inserted into the starting lineup, averaging 20.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 2.4 BPG on .516/.367/.814 shooting in 16 games (33.4 MPG). The team went 9-7 during that span, but unfortunately Wood sustained a fractured left thumb that sidelined him for eight games.

In 12 games since he returned from injury, Wood has seen his role cut back significantly, averaging 13.1 PPG and 5.2 RPG on .457/.298/.860 shooting in 18.9 minutes per contest. Defensive concerns could be the main culprit, though I haven’t seen that publicly stated as of late.

The 27-year-old heard his name pop up in both extension and trade rumors leading up to the February 9 deadline, but neither came to fruition. He remains eligible for a four-year, $77MM extension until June 30, though that appears increasingly unlikely unless he plays a major role in a deep postseason run.

Kenyon Martin Jr., F, Rockets

  • 2022/23: $1.78MM
  • 2023/24: $1.93MM team option
  • Stock: Up

The No. 52 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Martin is averaging career highs with 12.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG while shooting a career-best 56.2% from the field through 65 games (26.9 MPG). The high flier is another player who saw his name mentioned in trade rumors early in the season, but obviously Houston decided to keep him.

Considering his team option for next season is only $1.93MM, it seems unlikely that the 22-year-old would enter free agency. So why is he on this list?

As our Luke Adams detailed last month, if the Rockets exercise their option for ‘23/24, Martin would become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. However, if they decline it, he would be a restricted free agent this summer, giving Houston more control. That’s what happened last summer with Martin’s teammate, Jae’Sean Tate.

Martin has appeared in every game this season for the Rockets, including 24 consecutive starts (32 total). If he starts nine of Houston’s 17 remaining games, he would reach the starter criteria and increase his qualifying offer to $5,216,324.

Dillon Brooks, G/F, Grizzlies

  • 2022/23: $11.4MM
  • 2023/24: UFA
  • Stock: Down

Brooks has always faced criticism for his poor shot selection. However, he has never been this inefficient — his 48.3% true shooting percentage is the second-worst mark in the NBA among 197 qualifying players, only ahead of Detroit’s Killian Hayes (44.7%).

There isn’t one particularly area to point to, because he’s struggling from everywhere: 51.6% at the rim (ninth percentile), 38.3% from mid-range (26th percentile), and 31.9% from three-point range (24th percentile), per DunksAndThrees.com.

On the other hand, Brooks is an outstanding defensive player who is tasked with guarding the league’s best perimeter scorers. The Grizzlies have been better with him on the court in each of the past three seasons.

For better or worse, a big part of the team’s identity is tied to Brooks’ brash attitude and confidence. At 27 years old, he’s theoretically in the middle of his prime. He will get a raise on his current deal, but he hasn’t helped himself on the offensive end of the court.

Tre Jones, G, Spurs

  • 2022/23: $1.78MM
  • 2023/24: RFA ($5.22MM qualifying offer)
  • Stock: Up

The No. 41 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Jones rarely saw the court in his first season, appearing in 37 games with an average of 7.3 MPG. He saw more action last season, but he was still limited to a reserve role, appearing in 69 games with averages of 6.0 PPG and 3.4 APG in 16.6 MPG.

After trading away Dejounte Murray in the offseason, San Antonio had a glaring hole at point guard. Jones has filled that void, averaging career highs in points (12.5), rebounds (3.6), assists (6.2), steals (1.3) and minutes (29.1) per game.

While he has struggled with scoring efficiency (51.2% TS, ninth-worst in the league among qualifying players), Jones does a very good job of taking care of the ball (3.67-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he’s only 23 years old, and he’s on a minimum contract. He has certainly outplayed that deal.

Jones has already met the starter criteria, which increased the value of his qualifying offer to $5,216,324. There’s an excellent chance the Spurs extend that offer to him and make him a restricted free agent.

Jaxson Hayes, F/C, Pelicans

  • 2022/23: $6.8MM
  • 2023/24: RFA ($7.74MM qualifying offer)
  • Stock: Down

A former lottery pick (No. 8 overall in 2019), Hayes has yet to live up to his draft status. He has only appeared in 38 games this season with a career-low 13.6 minutes per night, a strong sign that the Pelicans don’t view him as a long-term fit on the roster.

Hayes won’t turn 23 until May, so he has time to possibly turn his career around. He is 6’11” and is a strong run-and-jump athlete. His shot isn’t broken by any means – he’s at 72.0% from the line for his career, a solid mark for a big man.

He just looks lost on the court way too often, frequently making careless, head-scratching mistakes at inopportune times, things that drive coaches crazy. The odds of New Orleans extending Hayes a $7,744,600 qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent are very low, so he will likely hit unrestricted free agency this summer.

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Jae Crowder: “I’d Do It All Over Again”

March 2nd, 2023 at 11:00am CST by Arthur Hill

Jae Crowder has no regrets about his holdout in Phoenix or the months of missed games as he waited for a trade to be completed, telling Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, “I’d do it all over again.” 

The Bucks had been considered among the favorites to land Crowder, but they weren’t able to work out a deal directly with the Suns. After Phoenix agreed to ship Crowder to Brooklyn in the Kevin Durant trade, Milwaukee offered draft assets to the Nets and everything was folded into a four-team deal.

The Bucks were thrilled to finally obtain Crowder, and they see him filling the defensive specialist role that P.J. Tucker did during their championship run in 2021. He has fit in seamlessly so far, averaging 19.3 minutes off the bench as Milwaukee has gone 4-0 since he has arrived.

“I think this team has what it takes to win a championship,” Crowder said. “That’s my main goal right now. I think once you win a championship, the rest of that stuff will take care of itself. My main goal, honestly, is not thinking about free agency or the summer. It’s all about winning the championship. I think that’s our locker room goal, and when I came into it, I knew that was the goal of the team.”

Crowder’s relationship with the Suns was reportedly damaged beyond repair when head coach Monty Williams informed him last offseason that he would no longer be a starter. Crowder refused to report to training camp, opting for individual workouts twice each day while he waited for a trade to materialize.

Sources tell Scotto that even when Cameron Johnson tore his meniscus in November, Crowder never considered returning to the Suns and the team didn’t discuss asking him to come back.

“Nah, there wasn’t a chance I was going to play there,” Crowder said. “Both sides knew that the road had come to an end. That came to an end way before Cam got hurt. I wasn’t going back on it, and they weren’t going back on it.”

Phoenix received offers for Crowder from several teams, Scotto adds. The Hawks, Rockets and Suns had exploratory discussions that would have sent Crowder to Atlanta along with Landry Shamet, while Eric Gordon and Kenyon Martin Jr. would have gone to Phoenix and John Collins would have wound up in Houston, but Scotto’s sources say that deal was never close to being completed.

Scotto adds that the Hawks also attempted to acquire Crowder and Shamet in a three-way trade that would have included the Jazz, but a disagreement over the draft picks Utah would have received prevented the teams from making progress. Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley would have gone to the Suns in that version of the deal.

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Checking In On RFAs-To-Be Who Have Met Starter Criteria

February 26th, 2023 at 10:49am CST by Luke Adams

As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.

A player drafted at No. 10  or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.

Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.

In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:

  • A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
  • A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.

A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.

However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.

The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.

So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:

Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.

As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.

Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:

(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)

White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.

Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.

It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.

Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.

Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.

Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.

With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.

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Rockets Notes: Green, Rebuild, Martin, Fertitta

February 19th, 2023 at 8:34am CST by Luke Adams

A left groin strain forced Rockets guard Jalen Green to miss the Rising Stars event at All-Star weekend, but the team was “relieved” by the results of the MRI he underwent this week, a source tells Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.

According to Feigen, the Rockets will have a better sense of Green’s return timeline early this week, after he has received a few days of treatment. However, there’s optimism that the injury shouldn’t result in a long-term absence.

If the strain was determined to be more severe, it could have sidelined the former No. 2 pick for most or all of Houston’s remaining 24 games, especially given that the lottery-bound club has no reason to rush one of its cornerstones back to action.

Here’s more on the Rockets:

  • While general manager Rafael Stone is willing to face criticism for how the Rockets are building their roster, he bristles at critics who suggest that Houston is moving forward without a clear plan in place, per Brian T. Smith of The Houston Chronicle. “If you paid no attention at all, you could say, ‘Hey, these guys don’t even have a plan,'” Stone said. “No, we absolutely have a plan. We told everybody what the plan was. So I don’t think the ‘They don’t have a plan’ is a valid criticism. If someone wants to be skeptical about our ability to execute it, that’s TBD and we’re cognizant of that. And I think this summer we intend to use our cap space and bring in some veterans.”
  • Rockets wing Kenyon Martin Jr., whose name came up frequently in trade rumors during the weeks leading up to February’s deadline, tells Shams Charania of Stadium (Twitter video link) that he’s happy he ultimately stayed put in Houston, where he’s averaging a career-high 26.3 minutes per game this season. “It was kind of weird,” Martin said. “Obviously it was my first time being in a situation where teams wanted me or there’s a possibility that Houston could get rid of me. But at the same time, I understood that it was nothing that I could control. … I kind of just left that up to the front office.”
  • Interviewed by KPRC 2 in Houston at a Mardi Gras event in Galveston, Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta shouted what sounded like, “Pray for Victor!,” an apparent reference to top prospect Victor Wembanyama (Twitter video link via Sean Pendergast of SportsRadio 610). The 13-45 Rockets have the NBA’s worst record and would have the best lottery odds in this year’s draft if the season ended today, but the league still may not love seeing one of its team owners already talking about targeting a specific prospect, with so much time left in the season.
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NBA Announces All-Star Saturday Night Participants

February 14th, 2023 at 7:57pm CST by Dana Gauruder

It was quite a Valentine’s Day for Mac McClung. He was signed to a two-way contract by the Sixers and, hours later, was named as one of the four participants in this year’s Slam Dunk competition during All-Star weekend, according to an NBA press release.

He’ll be joined by the Rockets’ Kenyon Martin Jr., the Pelicans’ Trey Murphy III and the Knicks’ Jericho Sims.

The Skills Challenge will feature a brother act. Team Antetokounmpo, predictably, will include Giannis Antetokounmpo and Thanasis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks and Alex Antetokounmpo of the G League’s Wisconsin Herd.

Team Jazz will include Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler and Collin Sexton, while Team Rookies will feature top pick Paolo Banchero of the Magic, as well as the Pistons’ Jaden Ivey and the Rockets’ Jabari Smith Jr. 

The participants in this year’s 3-point contest can be found here.

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Rockets Rumors: Collins, Turner, Gordon, Martin

January 27th, 2023 at 11:20am CST by Luke Adams

The Rockets have some interest in Hawks forward John Collins, according to Kelly Iko of The Athletic. Iko suggests that Houston hasn’t put a formal offer on the table for Collins, but that the two teams have talked as Atlanta gauges league-wide interest in the big man.

As Iko details, the Rockets have expressed interest in Collins in the past, including when they traded Clint Capela to Atlanta back at the 2020 deadline. Although they’re intrigued by the possibility of acquiring the 25-year-old, the Rockets would have to consider a number of factors, including Collins’ fit alongside young cornerstones Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith, as well as his long-term contract.

According to Iko, the Rockets value the cap flexibility they have going forward. Collins’ contract would cut significantly into that flexibility — he’s owed $25.3MM next season and $26.6MM in 2024/25, with a $26.6MM player option for ’25/26. Before talks with the Hawks get serious, Houston would have to decide whether it’s worth sacrificing both current assets and future opportunities for Collins.

Here’s more from Iko on the Rockets:

  • Houston has interest in Pacers center Myles Turner, but he’d likely be a target in free agency rather than via trade, according to Iko. The Rockets would be reluctant to engage in a bidding war and surrender valuable assets for a player on an expiring deal.
  • Veteran shooting guard Eric Gordon remains a strong candidate to be traded before the February 9 deadline (and has privately expressed some frustration with his situation, per Iko), but the Rockets are also open to the idea of adding another veteran or two to their roster. As Iko explains, the team’s rebuild has perhaps left the roster perhaps too young, with 10 Houston players no older than 22. The front office may prefer a little more balance.
  • Team and league sources tell Iko that a few clubs around the league have floated the idea of offering a first-round pick for Kenyon Martin Jr., but the Rockets haven’t received any concrete offers. Houston wouldn’t be interested in trading Martin for a second-round pick, Iko adds.
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Western Notes: Wall, Rockets, Kessler, Gordon

January 18th, 2023 at 8:04am CST by Luke Adams

Appearing on the Run Your Race podcast (YouTube link), Clippers point guard John Wall revisited his tenure with the Rockets, suggesting that the team went into tanking mode after trading James Harden during Wall’s first year in Houston. According to Wall, the culture during his stint with the club was so lax that he had to tell his young teammates not to get accustomed to how little was expected of them.

“I always talked to Jalen Green, Kevin Porter, K.J. (Kenyon Martin Jr.), I’m like, ‘Don’t get adjusted to this losing s–t, this is not how the league is,'” Wall said. “But at the same time, I had to tell them, like, ‘This s–t y’all are getting away with over here, if you go to any other team, you’d be out of the f—ing league. You wouldn’t play.’ I’m trying to explain that to them because they think it’s sweet. But I’m like, ‘If you ever get traded and go somewhere else, you going to be like, ‘This motherf—er was right.””

Wall also reiterated his disappointment with how his second year in Houston played out, when he sat out for the entire season. Wall said he would have been fine playing for the rebuilding club and mentoring its young players, but wasn’t comfortable with the team asking him to accept a limited bench role of no more than 10 or 15 minutes per night when he felt as if the Rockets’ prospects were being handed starting jobs instead of earning them.

Here’s more from around the Southwest:

  • Kelly Iko and Sam Vecenie of The Athletic rank the Rockets‘ players in terms of value, agreeing that Jalen Green and Jabari Smith are in the top tier and Tari Eason and Alperen Sengun are in the second. However, the two authors disagree on the order within those tiers, as Iko favors Green and Eason while Vecenie prefers Smith and Sengun.
  • Jazz rookie Walker Kessler had his best game of the season on Monday against the team that drafted him, racking up 20 points and 21 rebounds in a one-point win over Minnesota. As Tony Jones of The Athletic observes, it was the latest instance of Kessler showing why Utah lobbied to have him included in the Rudy Gobert blockbuster over the summer and why the Timberwolves initially resisted his inclusion after having just drafted the young center.
  • Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon has been the second-best player for the top team in the Western Conference so far this season and is building a strong case for an All-Star spot with his two-way play, writes Law Murray of The Athletic. “For us to be the team that wanted to win at a high level, we had to have a much greater buy-in and commitment (on defense). And Aaron definitely fits that bill,” head coach Michael Malone said. “He guards the other team’s best player almost every night. And he never shies away from a challenge. … We wouldn’t be where we’re at at the halfway point without Aaron Gordon’s play, his attitude, and his team-first mentality.”
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Kenyon Martin Jr. Signing On For Slam Dunk Contest

January 8th, 2023 at 1:37pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

Rockets small forward Kenyon Martin Jr. has committed to take part in the 2023 Slam Dunk Contest, sources inform Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). He will join previously announced rookie Trail Blazers shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe in the competition.

Martin, 22, has been enjoying a solid third NBA season with the 10-29 Rockets, as Charania notes. The 6’7″ swingman is averaging 10.4 PPG on .550/.317/.651 shooting splits, along with 4.8 RPG, 1.4 APG and 0.5 SPG.

Kelly Iko of The Athletic tweets that second-year Rockets shooting guard Jalen Green was also invited to participate in this year’s Slam Dunk Contest, but he turned down league overtures.

This year’s dunk contest will take place on Saturday, February 18, as part of the All-Star Weekend festivities in Utah.

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Southwest Notes: Mavericks, Doncic, Wood, Rockets, Vassell

January 2nd, 2023 at 8:20pm CST by Dana Gauruder

The Mavericks will play a preseason game next fall in the UAE capital of Abu Dhabi, Marc Stein reports in a Substack story.

Dallas will also play a game against perennial Spanish League power Real Madrid during the overseas journey. Mavericks owner Mark Cuban wanted to arrange a preseason game in Madrid for Luka Doncic, who played for Real Madrid until he became an NBA lottery selection.

We have more from the Southwest Division:

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