KJ Martin

Checking In On RFAs-To-Be Who Have Met Starter Criteria

As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.

A player drafted at No. 10  or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.

Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.

In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:

  • A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
  • A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.

A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.

However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.

The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.

So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:

Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.

As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.

Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:

(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)

White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.

Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.

It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.

Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.

Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.

Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.

With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.

Rockets Notes: Green, Rebuild, Martin, Fertitta

A left groin strain forced Rockets guard Jalen Green to miss the Rising Stars event at All-Star weekend, but the team was “relieved” by the results of the MRI he underwent this week, a source tells Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.

According to Feigen, the Rockets will have a better sense of Green’s return timeline early this week, after he has received a few days of treatment. However, there’s optimism that the injury shouldn’t result in a long-term absence.

If the strain was determined to be more severe, it could have sidelined the former No. 2 pick for most or all of Houston’s remaining 24 games, especially given that the lottery-bound club has no reason to rush one of its cornerstones back to action.

Here’s more on the Rockets:

  • While general manager Rafael Stone is willing to face criticism for how the Rockets are building their roster, he bristles at critics who suggest that Houston is moving forward without a clear plan in place, per Brian T. Smith of The Houston Chronicle. “If you paid no attention at all, you could say, ‘Hey, these guys don’t even have a plan,'” Stone said. “No, we absolutely have a plan. We told everybody what the plan was. So I don’t think the ‘They don’t have a plan’ is a valid criticism. If someone wants to be skeptical about our ability to execute it, that’s TBD and we’re cognizant of that. And I think this summer we intend to use our cap space and bring in some veterans.”
  • Rockets wing Kenyon Martin Jr., whose name came up frequently in trade rumors during the weeks leading up to February’s deadline, tells Shams Charania of Stadium (Twitter video link) that he’s happy he ultimately stayed put in Houston, where he’s averaging a career-high 26.3 minutes per game this season. “It was kind of weird,” Martin said. “Obviously it was my first time being in a situation where teams wanted me or there’s a possibility that Houston could get rid of me. But at the same time, I understood that it was nothing that I could control. … I kind of just left that up to the front office.”
  • Interviewed by KPRC 2 in Houston at a Mardi Gras event in Galveston, Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta shouted what sounded like, “Pray for Victor!,” an apparent reference to top prospect Victor Wembanyama (Twitter video link via Sean Pendergast of SportsRadio 610). The 13-45 Rockets have the NBA’s worst record and would have the best lottery odds in this year’s draft if the season ended today, but the league still may not love seeing one of its team owners already talking about targeting a specific prospect, with so much time left in the season.

NBA Announces All-Star Saturday Night Participants

It was quite a Valentine’s Day for Mac McClung. He was signed to a two-way contract by the Sixers and, hours later, was named as one of the four participants in this year’s Slam Dunk competition during All-Star weekend, according to an NBA press release.

He’ll be joined by the Rockets’ Kenyon Martin Jr., the Pelicans’ Trey Murphy III and the Knicks’ Jericho Sims.

The Skills Challenge will feature a brother act. Team Antetokounmpo, predictably, will include Giannis Antetokounmpo and Thanasis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks and Alex Antetokounmpo of the G League’s Wisconsin Herd.

Team Jazz will include Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler and Collin Sexton, while Team Rookies will feature top pick Paolo Banchero of the Magic, as well as the Pistons’ Jaden Ivey and the Rockets’ Jabari Smith Jr. 

The participants in this year’s 3-point contest can be found here.

Rockets Rumors: Collins, Turner, Gordon, Martin

The Rockets have some interest in Hawks forward John Collins, according to Kelly Iko of The Athletic. Iko suggests that Houston hasn’t put a formal offer on the table for Collins, but that the two teams have talked as Atlanta gauges league-wide interest in the big man.

As Iko details, the Rockets have expressed interest in Collins in the past, including when they traded Clint Capela to Atlanta back at the 2020 deadline. Although they’re intrigued by the possibility of acquiring the 25-year-old, the Rockets would have to consider a number of factors, including Collins’ fit alongside young cornerstones Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith, as well as his long-term contract.

According to Iko, the Rockets value the cap flexibility they have going forward. Collins’ contract would cut significantly into that flexibility — he’s owed $25.3MM next season and $26.6MM in 2024/25, with a $26.6MM player option for ’25/26. Before talks with the Hawks get serious, Houston would have to decide whether it’s worth sacrificing both current assets and future opportunities for Collins.

Here’s more from Iko on the Rockets:

  • Houston has interest in Pacers center Myles Turner, but he’d likely be a target in free agency rather than via trade, according to Iko. The Rockets would be reluctant to engage in a bidding war and surrender valuable assets for a player on an expiring deal.
  • Veteran shooting guard Eric Gordon remains a strong candidate to be traded before the February 9 deadline (and has privately expressed some frustration with his situation, per Iko), but the Rockets are also open to the idea of adding another veteran or two to their roster. As Iko explains, the team’s rebuild has perhaps left the roster perhaps too young, with 10 Houston players no older than 22. The front office may prefer a little more balance.
  • Team and league sources tell Iko that a few clubs around the league have floated the idea of offering a first-round pick for Kenyon Martin Jr., but the Rockets haven’t received any concrete offers. Houston wouldn’t be interested in trading Martin for a second-round pick, Iko adds.

Western Notes: Wall, Rockets, Kessler, Gordon

Appearing on the Run Your Race podcast (YouTube link), Clippers point guard John Wall revisited his tenure with the Rockets, suggesting that the team went into tanking mode after trading James Harden during Wall’s first year in Houston. According to Wall, the culture during his stint with the club was so lax that he had to tell his young teammates not to get accustomed to how little was expected of them.

“I always talked to Jalen Green, Kevin Porter, K.J. (Kenyon Martin Jr.), I’m like, ‘Don’t get adjusted to this losing s–t, this is not how the league is,'” Wall said. “But at the same time, I had to tell them, like, ‘This s–t y’all are getting away with over here, if you go to any other team, you’d be out of the f—ing league. You wouldn’t play.’ I’m trying to explain that to them because they think it’s sweet. But I’m like, ‘If you ever get traded and go somewhere else, you going to be like, ‘This motherf—er was right.””

Wall also reiterated his disappointment with how his second year in Houston played out, when he sat out for the entire season. Wall said he would have been fine playing for the rebuilding club and mentoring its young players, but wasn’t comfortable with the team asking him to accept a limited bench role of no more than 10 or 15 minutes per night when he felt as if the Rockets’ prospects were being handed starting jobs instead of earning them.

Here’s more from around the Southwest:

  • Kelly Iko and Sam Vecenie of The Athletic rank the Rockets‘ players in terms of value, agreeing that Jalen Green and Jabari Smith are in the top tier and Tari Eason and Alperen Sengun are in the second. However, the two authors disagree on the order within those tiers, as Iko favors Green and Eason while Vecenie prefers Smith and Sengun.
  • Jazz rookie Walker Kessler had his best game of the season on Monday against the team that drafted him, racking up 20 points and 21 rebounds in a one-point win over Minnesota. As Tony Jones of The Athletic observes, it was the latest instance of Kessler showing why Utah lobbied to have him included in the Rudy Gobert blockbuster over the summer and why the Timberwolves initially resisted his inclusion after having just drafted the young center.
  • Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon has been the second-best player for the top team in the Western Conference so far this season and is building a strong case for an All-Star spot with his two-way play, writes Law Murray of The Athletic. “For us to be the team that wanted to win at a high level, we had to have a much greater buy-in and commitment (on defense). And Aaron definitely fits that bill,” head coach Michael Malone said. “He guards the other team’s best player almost every night. And he never shies away from a challenge. … We wouldn’t be where we’re at at the halfway point without Aaron Gordon’s play, his attitude, and his team-first mentality.”

Kenyon Martin Jr. Signing On For Slam Dunk Contest

Rockets small forward Kenyon Martin Jr. has committed to take part in the 2023 Slam Dunk Contest, sources inform Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). He will join previously announced rookie Trail Blazers shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe in the competition.

Martin, 22, has been enjoying a solid third NBA season with the 10-29 Rockets, as Charania notes. The 6’7″ swingman is averaging 10.4 PPG on .550/.317/.651 shooting splits, along with 4.8 RPG, 1.4 APG and 0.5 SPG.

Kelly Iko of The Athletic tweets that second-year Rockets shooting guard Jalen Green was also invited to participate in this year’s Slam Dunk Contest, but he turned down league overtures.

This year’s dunk contest will take place on Saturday, February 18, as part of the All-Star Weekend festivities in Utah.

Southwest Notes: Mavericks, Doncic, Wood, Rockets, Vassell

The Mavericks will play a preseason game next fall in the UAE capital of Abu Dhabi, Marc Stein reports in a Substack story.

Dallas will also play a game against perennial Spanish League power Real Madrid during the overseas journey. Mavericks owner Mark Cuban wanted to arrange a preseason game in Madrid for Luka Doncic, who played for Real Madrid until he became an NBA lottery selection.

We have more from the Southwest Division:

Southwest Notes: D. Green, Kemba, Pelicans, K. Martin

Appearing on NBA Today on Friday alongside Grizzlies wing Danny Green, who is recovering from an ACL tear, Brian Windhorst said that his fellow panelist might end up being a trade chip before February’s deadline.

“This is awkward, I’m sorry to say this, Danny,” Windhorst said (YouTube video link). “… One of the (trade possibilities) that people are talking about is if the Grizzlies want to upgrade, will they call about Danny Green and a draft pick? … I do think you will hear your name, I’m sorry to say, in some trade discussions.”

“I’m not shocked. At this point in my career, I hear my name quite often,” Green, who has been traded four times since the 2018 offseason, responded with a smile.

While it would make sense for the Grizzlies to dangle Green’s expiring $10MM contract along with a draft pick or two in an effort to upgrade their rotation, Windhorst also offered a couple reasons why a deal might not happen. As he points out, Memphis wants veteran leaders to complement its young core, and Green has won three championship rings. Additionally, the club has a solid record in the draft and may be reluctant to part with its picks.

Here’s more from around the Southwest:

  • With several Mavericks regulars sidelined, point guard Kemba Walker played 42 minutes in Saturday’s loss to Cleveland and looked like his old self. Walker put up 32 points and seven assists and was a plus-7 in a game Dallas lost by a single point, then told reporters after the game that he felt “really good out there” (Twitter link via Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News). While they shouldn’t expect that sort of production on a regular basis, Walker’s impressive play could be a significant development for the Mavs, tweets Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News.
  • The Pelicans no longer have All-Defensive mainstays like Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis on their roster, but homegrown players like Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado, Herb Jones and Dyson Daniels are buoying one of the NBA’s best defenses, writes Christian Clark of NOLA.com (subscription required). New Orleans currently ranks sixth in the league in defensive rating (109.7).
  • In an in-depth story for The Houston Chronicle (subscription required), Danielle Lerner profiles Kenyon Martin Jr. and explores how the forward has become a crucial “glue guy” for the Rockets. “He’s always been like a smart player, but I think he’s even smarter now,” head coach Stephen Silas said of Martin. “You know he’s not gonna make a mistake. He knows where he’s supposed to be. When it comes to defensive coverages or offensive plays, he’s usually in the right spot. And, you know, he is one of the guys that kind of gets us going with our transition game as well. So to have someone who’s running the floor and crashing the glass and using all this athleticism, but also a cerebral player, that makes him valuable.”

Rockets Notes: Gordon, Martin, Silas

The Rockets have had preliminary trade talks about veteran shooting guard Eric Gordon with approximately a half-dozen teams, a source tells Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.

According to Feigen, a number of contenders are expected to target Gordon, given his ability to make outside shots and defend multiple positions. His pseudo-expiring contract, which is non-guaranteed for next season, should also be appealing to potential suitors.

However, Gordon’s cap hit of $19.6MM will make him a tricky piece to move, and the Rockets don’t feel any urgency to get a deal done, given that he remains under contract for 2023/24. Although the 33-year-old’s $20.9MM salary for next season isn’t cheap, Houston projects to have significant cap room and may decide that hanging onto Gordon is the best way to use of a chunk of that room.

The Rockets’ asking price for Gordon remains high, which will also complicate a potential trade. According to Feigen, Houston doesn’t just want a 2023 first-round pick from a contending team, since such a first-rounder would likely end up in the mid- to late-20s. The Rockets would be looking to add a pick in a future season or one from a third team that has a chance of landing higher in the first round, Feigen explains.

Acquiring a future pick may be a more realistic outcome, since three-team deals are complicated and Houston isn’t all that interested in adding a third 2023 first-rounder to its collection with so many young players already on the roster, says Feigen. The Rockets owe their own first-rounders to Oklahoma City in 2024 and 2026, so they may be more inclined to fortify their cache of draft assets in those years (though they do control Brooklyn’s ’24 and ’26 picks).

Here’s more on the Rockets:

  • As Shams Charania reported earlier in the week, the Rockets’ asking price for Kenyon Martin Jr. is even higher than their price for Gordon. Feigen classifies Houston as “hesitant” to move Martin, since he’s enjoying a career year and still has room to grow at age 21. Feigen also observes that Martin’s contract would give the Rockets the option of declining his 2023/24 team option to sign him to a long-term contract as a restricted free agent — the club took that path with Jae’Sean Tate this past summer.
  • The proposed three-team trade involving the Rockets, Suns, and Bucks that Charania mentioned on Monday didn’t get very far down the line. According to Feigen, it “never gained traction past the proposal stage or a second phone call.”
  • Stephen Silas rejoined the Rockets for Tuesday’s game just three days after the death of his father Paul Silas and his emotions remained raw before and after his club’s upset win over Phoenix, Feigen writes in another Houston Chronicle story. “Definitely great to be back,” said Silas, who added that his father would have told him to “get his butt out there and coach” his team. “I love these guys. I love this team. I kind of didn’t want the game to end because now, real life starts up again.”

Charania’s Latest: Bogdanovic, Crowder, Gordon, Martin, Collins

The Lakers are seeking shooters in their trade talks with rival teams and have discussed a potential deal with the Pistons involving Bojan Bogdanovic, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic. Along with players to match Bogdanovic’s $19.343MM salary, the trade could include a protected first-round pick from L.A. in either 2027 or 2029, sources tell Charania.

Bogdanovic has been enjoying a career-best season since Detroit acquired him from the Jazz in September, averaging 21.0 points per game while shooting 50.8% from the field and 43.7% on three-pointers. He signed a two-year, $39.1MM extension in October that will keep him under team control through the 2024/25 season.

Charania hears there are about a dozen teams that have expressed interest in Bogdanovic, with all offering first- or second-round picks in return. Charania’s sources say the Pistons aren’t committed to moving Bogdanovic and have expressed a “significant reluctance” to some of the teams that have inquired.

The Athletic insider passes along a few more rumors:

  • The Suns were trying to work out a three-team deal to send Jae Crowder to the Bucks, multiple sources told Charania. Phoenix would have received Eric Gordon and Kenyon Martin Jr. from the Rockets in the proposed trade, while four of Milwaukee’s second-round picks would have gone to Houston, along with unidentified players. The Rockets have nixed the deal so far and are hoping to get a first-round pick for Gordon and “a very good first-rounder” if they decide to move Martin. Charania hears that Houston has gotten interest in Gordon from several contenders, but is less willing to talk about parting with Martin. The Bucks may search for another team to help complete the deal for Crowder.
  • The Hawks and Heat have also expressed interest in Crowder, Charania adds, and Miami will have more assets to offer when Dewayne Dedmon, Victor Oladipo and other players become trade-eligible on Thursday.
  • The Hawks have talked to several teams about John Collins, including the Jazz, Nets and Mavericks, according to Charania, who adds that Atlanta hasn’t shown interest in a Brooklyn deal that would include Joe Harris. The Suns also like Collins, but they aren’t willing to take on his pricey contract. The Hawks would like to acquire Kyle Kuzma from the Wizards, but Charania hears there’s not much traction on a potential deal with Washington.