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Free Agent Stock Watch 2018: San Antonio Spurs

May 4th, 2018 at 9:00pm CST by Austin Kent

The fate of the Spurs is in the hands of Kawhi Leonard and it’s hard to get a clear read on his current relationship with the franchise. With Leonard, a savvy veteran core, and a world-class coaching staff, the Spurs are capable of competing in the West. Without him, however, the forecast in San Antonio is considerably more bleak, and that impacts everything, including the club’s pending free agency decisions.

Given the franchise’s track record of stability, I’d posit that Leonard returns at full health next season and this entire debacle gets chalked up to a superstar-level player lacking faith in an organization’s medical staff mandated to prod him back into action as soon as reasonably possible.

While much of the disappointment around the team this year can be traced back to this one isolated case of melodrama, that shouldn’t veil the fact that the Spurs – who’ve been ancient for over a decade now – are looking older than ever. Is a major shakeup right around the bend? That may be the case with or without Leonard eventually, but in 2018/19 at least, we can expect something along the lines of the status quo.

Kyle Anderson, SF, 24 (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $6MM deal in 2014
Like any good Spurs prospect, Anderson slowly marinated in winning culture for three years before taking a leap in the final year of his rookie contract. The versatile forward thrived in the minutes made available by the injury to Leonard and could draw interest as a capable, multifaceted young asset on the open market this summer. San Antonio has some flexibility to match a raise if Anderson’s camp goes out and gets one — the Spurs may have no other choice if they end up needing to consider a full roster reboot anyway.

Davis Bertans, PF, 25 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $2MM deal in 2016
Although he didn’t play major minutes on a consistent basis for the Spurs in 2017/18, Bertans established himself as a player who could contribute when given an opportunity. The stretch four isn’t likely to command a significant price tag as a restricted free agent, so San Antonio could probably lock him in as an affordable, yet capable rotation piece in an effort to add depth to an aging frontcourt.

Bryn Forbes, SG, 24 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $2MM deal in 2016
With much of San Antonio’s rotation planted firmly in their late-30s, competent young players that can be locked in to affordable deals are a special commodity. In Forbes, the club has a combo guard capable of instant offense off the bench. The MSU product could generate interest from other teams looking to add fresh legs and a potent long ball, but the Spurs should have enough financial flexibility to match anything within reason.

Rudy Gay, PF, 31 (Up) – Signed to a two-year, $17MM deal in 2017
An Achilles injury forced Gay into signing a short-term “prove-it” deal with the Spurs last summer and the combo forward appears to have done just that. Still, while Gay performed admirably in a reduced role with his new franchise, it’s hard to imagine he’d garner much interest on the open market given his age and relatively underwhelming portfolio as a big investment. Gay looked solid as a supplementary player for the Spurs in 2017/18 and seems to be content. Given that there won’t be a long line of teams interested in overpaying for the 31-year-old in 2018, accepting the $9MM player option for next season may be Gay’s best bet.

Danny Green, SG, 31 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $40MM deal in 2015
While Green’s calling card has become ever more important in today’s NBA, there’s no denying that the three-point specialist benefited from perfect timing the last time he hit free agency. Green could conceivably turn down his 2018/19 player option worth $10MM next season in the hopes of landing a modest raise on a lucrative short-term deal like J.J. Redick did last summer, but the former bit player could also play things safe and continue to enjoy his last haul.

Joffrey Lauvergne, C, 26 (Down) – Signed to a two-year, $3MM deal in 2017
Lauvergne has seen his role decrease as he’s bounced from destination to destination over the last three seasons, but he remains a vaguely intriguing reserve asset despite the fact that he’ll turn 27 before next season. This summer, the big man’s best option to stick around in the league long-term might be to accept his 2018/19 player option and battle his way into a bigger role in San Antonio’s frontcourt. If he does that, he could open more opportunities for himself.

Tony Parker, PG, 36 (Down) – Signed to a four-year, $56MM deal in 2014
The Spurs have consistently paid their veteran point guard eight-digit salaries for the past decade and while his place in the upper echelon of franchise history is secure, the organization doesn’t face any pressure to sign him to a bloated lifetime achievement contract as he enters the twilight of his career. Parker handled a demotion to the second unit professionally this year and has previously said that he’d like to play 20 seasons. That said, if indications that the team’s culture is going south are true, there may not be much of a point to keeping the band together.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Potential 2018 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

April 10th, 2018 at 2:56pm CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.

Jabari Parker (Bucks)
Dante Exum (Jazz)
Nik Stauskas (Nets)
Noah Vonleh (Bulls)
Doug McDermott (Mavericks)
Zach LaVine (Bulls)

No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.

Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.

Elfrid Payton (Suns)
Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers)
Clint Capela (Rockets)
Kyle Anderson (Spurs)

Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.

Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

Only one player falls into this group this year.

Yogi Ferrell (Mavericks)

Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.

The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Kyle Anderson Out 2-3 Weeks With Sprained MCL

December 4th, 2017 at 2:09pm CST by Austin Kent

DECEMBER 4, 2:09pm: Anderson is expected to be sidelined for two or three weeks due to a sprained left MCL, reports Wojnarowski (via Twitter).

DECEMBER 3, 9:57pm: Less than two months into a breakout season with the Spurs, fourth-year forward Kyle Anderson went down with a left medial knee sprain. Royce Young and Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN report that he underwent an X-ray at the stadium.

The X-ray, a standard procedure in this situation, came back negative but more details as to the severity and timetable of the injury will be brought to light Monday when the 24-year-old undergoes an MRI.

Anderson suffered the non-contact injury in the third quarter of San Antonio’s Sunday night loss to the Thunder. Per Marc Spears of ESPN, the forward – who had been filling in for LaMarcus Aldridge at the four – went to the floor screaming and grabbing at his knee.

Wojnarowski and Young add that the Anderson was unable to put any weight on his left leg and had to be helped off the floor by teammates.

The injury comes 22 games into a season in which Anderson’s role has increased substantially on account of Kawhi Leonard‘s lingering quad injury. In 27.7 minutes of action, he’s averaged 9.0 points and 6.1 rebounds per game.

Southwest Notes: Conley, Hill, Anderson, Kleber

November 29th, 2017 at 8:32pm CST by Arthur Hill

Mike Conley is making progress with his injured left heel and Achilles and should return in two to three weeks, according to a story on the Grizzlies’ website. The point guard has responded well to therapy and treatment to promote healing, the team says.

No timetable was set for Conley’s return when he first suffered the injury in mid-November. Memphis has gone 0-6 without Conley to fall into 12th place in the Western Conference and fired coach David Fizdale on Monday.

There’s more news from the Southwest Division:

Pelicans forward Solomon Hill is improving after surgery in August for a torn hamstring, tweets Scott Kushner of The Advocate. Coach Alvin Gentry told reporters tonight that Hill is a “little bit ahead of schedule” in the rehab process. “We talk to him and communicate with him to try to see what’s going on,” Gentry said. “But it’s just a time injury. You can’t work harder to come back quicker.” Hill was mainly a starter for New Orleans last season, averaging 7.0 points and 3.8 rebounds in 80 games.
Spurs swingman Kyle Anderson will be in a strong position when he enters free agency next summer, writes Michael C. Wright of ESPN. With Kawhi Leonard sidelined since preseason, Anderson has stepped into the starting lineup and has impressed San Antonio’s front office with his performance, averaging career highs in points (9.2), rebounds (6.3) and assists (3.2) through 20 games. “Free agency happens this coming July, and he’ll be in a better position because of the way he’s played,” Spurs GM R.C. Buford said. “We’ll be in a better position because we know the role that he can fill with the team that we have. We’ll evaluate Kyle’s free agency as a part of the whole team, but he’s clearly put himself in a position to be respected in free agency.”
Rookie Maxi Kleber is getting some of the credit for the Mavericks‘ improved performance over their past six games, relays Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News. After a terrible start, Dallas has gone 3-3 since moving Kleber into the starting lineup. “Kleber’s given us a lot more flexibility defensively,” said coach Rick Carlisle. “He’s been one of our better defenders. When you add a guy like that, that can guard people individually and can switch liberally and keep little guys in front of him, that helps.”

Texas Notes: Noel, Leonard, Anderson, Weber

November 22nd, 2017 at 9:46pm CST by Arthur Hill

Nerlens Noel will regret turning down the Mavericks‘ four-year, $72MM offer this summer, states Newy Scruggs in a chat for The Dallas Morning News. Scruggs contends Noel is not viewed as a hard worker by the organization, which has lowered his standing with coach Rick Carlisle. Noel has slipped into a reserve role, starting just six of the 17 games he has played this season.

Noel was hoping for a maximum offer, either from the Mavs or another team, when he entered restricted free agency in July. But nothing in that neighborhood materialized and Noel opted to accept Dallas’ $4,187,598 qualifying offer and try his luck as an unrestricted free agent next year. Scruggs said he expects Noel to be traded before the February deadline.

There’s more NBA news from the Lone Star State:

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich told reporters he has never seen an injury like the one that is keeping Kawhi Leonard out of action, relays Michael C. Wright of ESPN. Leonard is dealing with quadriceps tendinopathy, which has prevented him from taking the court all season, even in practice, and there’s still no definitive timetable for his return. Popovich had better news about Tony Parker, who also has a quadriceps injury that dates back to last season’s Western Conference semifinals. Parker has said he hopes to return in November, and it sounds like that may be possible. “For real, sooner than later,” Popovich said tonight. “And I’m serious. I’m being honest.”
Leonard’s injury has created an opportunity for fourth-year swingman Kyle Anderson, who is getting serious minutes for the first time in his career. Anderson has started all 18 games, and Popovich plans to keep him in the rotation even when Leonard returns, tweets Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News. “When Kawhi does come back, I’ve got some figuring out to do,” Popovich said. “[Anderson] should still be on the court, somehow or another.”
After signing a two-way deal with the Rockets last month, Briante Weber is eager to make the most of his latest shot at the NBA, writes Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. Weber, the leading scorer for Houston’s G League affiliate in Rio Grande Valley, was called up to the Rockets today for the first time since joining the organization. He previously played for the Grizzlies, Heat, Warriors and Hornets, but never spent more than 13 games with any of those teams. “I’ve been prepared,” Weber said. “It’s just about the opportunity. That’s all it’s about, me taking advantage of the opportunity when I get in. I’ve always been prepared. It’s just basketball.”

Southwest Notes: Stephenson, Green, Cousins

October 22nd, 2016 at 7:56pm CST by ChrisCrouse

The Pelicans have 16 players under contract and it appears the final roster spot is between Lance Stephenson, whose contract is non-guaranteed, and Alonzo Gee, John Reid of The Times-Picayune notes on Twitter. New Orleans has until 5:00pm eastern time on Monday to make a decision.

Here’s more from the Southwest division:

Danny Green will miss three weeks with a quad injury, according to the team’s website. Green missed the Spurs‘ final preseason game on Friday and Kyle Anderson started in his place.
C.J. Williams and Jaleel Cousins are expected to play for the Texas Legends, the D-League affiliate of the Mavericks, according to D-League Digest (Twitter link). Both players were waived by Dallas earlier today.
DeMarcus Cousins will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2017/18 season and the Mavericks are expected make a hard push to sign the big man, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com tweets.

Spurs Pick Up 2017/18 Option On Kyle Anderson

October 21st, 2016 at 2:54pm CST by Luke Adams

The Spurs had one rookie scale team option decision to make in advance of October 31 this year, and the team announced that decision today. Unsurprisingly, San Antonio has exercised its 2017/18 option on forward Kyle Anderson, guaranteeing his salary for the fourth year of his rookie contract.

[Related: Rookie scale team option decisions]

Anderson, 23, has posted modest numbers during his first two NBA seasons, averaging 4.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG, and 1.6 APG in 78 regular season contests in 2015/16. However, multiple offseason reports have suggested that the Spurs believe the former 30th overall pick is ready to take on a larger role in the team’s rotation in 2016/17.

As the final pick in the 2014 first round, Anderson also comes at a bargain rate for the Spurs, who are paying him just $1.192MM this season. Anderson’s fourth-year option for 2017/18 will pay him $2.152MM, which represents a nice raise, but is still just a small fraction of the Spurs’ cap, which should easily exceed $100MM.

With his option for ’17/18 now locked in, Anderson will be eligible for a contract extension during the 2017 offseason, and would reach restricted free agency in the summer of 2018.

Spurs Notes: Gasol, Roster Battle, Denmon, D-League

September 25th, 2016 at 11:55am CST by Arthur Hill

Pau Gasol may not be the best replacement for the retired Tim Duncan, cautions Jesse Blancarte of Basketball Insiders. In the site’s season preview of the Spurs, Blancarte notes that while Gasol remains an effective passer and all-around player, most of his scoring comes from the midrange area, where San Antonio already produces much of its offense. Gasol left the Bulls to sign a two-year, $30MM deal with the Spurs in July. Although Blancarte picks San Antonio to repeat as Southwest Division champions, he expresses concern about the age of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili and states that Kyle Anderson and Jonathon Simmons will have to be ready to take on larger roles.

There’s more news out of San Antonio:

The Spurs have 14 players with guaranteed contracts and a four-way battle is shaping up for the final roster spot, Eric Pincus writes in the same story. Patricio Garino, Ryan Arcidiacono, Bryn Forbes and Ryan Richards are expected to compete for the 15th position, with the D-League looming as a consolation prize.
San Antonio has waived its rights to Marcus Denmon, according to Emiliano Carchia of Sportando. The Spurs made the former Missouri combo guard the 59th pick in the 2012 draft. He has spent his professional career overseas and played last season in the Turkish Basketball League.
An Austin Spurs tryout Saturday attracted 110 players hoping to duplicate Simmons’ unlikely path to the NBA, writes Lorne Chen of NBA.com. Simmons was a semi-pro player who was thinking about giving up basketball when he came to the 2013 tryout. He impressed coaches enough to earn a contract with the D-League team, then graduated to the NBA two seasons later. “Jonathon came from this spot and has been a part of our group ever since,” said Austin GM Andy Birdsong. “And the thing is there are many stories like his coming out of the D-League. It’s a real story. It’s one that’s tangible. And it gives the guys here a lot of hope.”

Western Notes: Green, Bourousis, Nuggets

July 12th, 2016 at 8:35pm CST by Eddie Scarito

Warriors forward Draymond Green was arrested over the weekend for an alleged assault, but his attorney stated that Green is completely innocent of any wrongdoing and that his client will be pleading innocent, Brendan F. Quinn of MLive.com relays. A spokesman for the East Lansing Police Department, which handled the arrest, told Ethan Sherwood Strauss of ESPN.com (ESPN Now link), “We are confirming that Draymond Green was arrested for assault in our downtown business district early Sunday morning at around 2:30AM. The victim was a male. It was basically an altercation between two guys. There’s no injuries. He was released with a $200 bond on Sunday. And he’s got 10 days to get arraigned and then prosecution will continue from there.”

The East Lansing PD spokesman also told Strauss (ESPN Now link), that the police were not summoned to the incident, but were already in the area and responded to the commotion. Here’s more from out West:

All-Euroleague center Giannis Bourousis has reached a agreement with the Greek club Panathinaikos on a two-year contract, Nikos Varlas of Eurohoops reports. The big man reportedly had contract offers from the Clippers and Warriors, with the Spurs also expressing interest, Varlas adds.
Given the Spurs‘ offseason moves thus far, it appears the team is preparing to increase the roles of Kyle Anderson and Jonathon Simmons, Michael C. Wright of ESPN.com relays. “This is a great experience for them. They get out on the court, and they’re going against quality competition in an organized setting. It’s not like you’re just playing pickup in the summer time,” assistant coach Becky Hammon said. “This is a great setting for them to be in situations like this. That’s how you build confidence in them, and that’s how coaches get confidence in them, too. If they see that putting Kyle in as a decision maker at the end of the game is a good option for us… there’s different things that we’re always trying to pick up, learn on and also stretch them mentally, and get them better as well as work on their individual game.“
The Nuggets are a team rich with potential trade assets and Jonny Aupin of RealGM ran down a number of hypothetical swaps the team may explore this season.

Southwest Notes: Conley, Parsons, Anderson

February 5th, 2016 at 1:30pm CST by Chuck Myron

Mike Conley isn’t ruling out any option as he approaches free agency this summer, as he said to reporters today in New York, where the Grizzlies are in town to play the Knicks, notes Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News (Twitter links). Conley also said that he hasn’t made any promises to Marc Gasol, Bondy points out, despite the point guard having recently pegged the difficulty of leaving the Spanish center as 11 on a scale of one to 10.

“Everything will be on the table when the time comes,” Conley said. “I haven’t committed to anything.”

See more on the Grizzlies amid items from the Southwest Division:

Chandler Parsons and Rick Carlisle have a close relationship off the court, but they don’t always see eye to eye about Parsons’ on-court role, with Carlisle hesitant to use him the way most teams feature their stars, as Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com examines. Parsons can opt out at season’s end, but he’s indicated that he wants to remain in Dallas for the long term and Mavericks owner Mark Cuban wants that same outcome, with the team having signed Wesley Matthews in part because he fits so well with Parsons, MacMahon writes. “What I see 100% is we’re going to keep those guys together for a long, long time,” Cuban said to MacMahon. “When they’re both 100% and have all their explosiveness, that’s a crushing tandem on the wing and we’ll fill in around them.”
The Spurs have turned to Kyle Anderson and Jonathon Simmons more of late, allowing Anderson to respond on the court to doubts that preceded San Antonio’s decision to draft him 30th overall in 2014 and Simmons to continue impressing on his minimum-salary deal, as Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio News-Express details. The pair figure to have more opportunities to play with Manu Ginobili sidelined for at least a month.
The use of 10-day signee Ryan Hollins at the expense of minutes for JaMychal Green seems to show the disparity between coach Dave Joerger‘s full attention to the present and the front office’s broader attention to both now and later for the Grizzlies, opines Chris Herrington of The Commercial Appeal.