Naji Marshall

Checking In On RFAs-To-Be Who Have Met Starter Criteria

As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”

A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.

If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.

A player drafted at No. 10  or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.

Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.

In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:

  • A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
  • A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.

A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.

However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.

The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.

So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:

Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.

As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.

Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:

(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)

White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.

Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.

It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.

Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.

Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.

Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.

With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.

Moore’s Latest: Pelicans, Spurs, Warriors, Nuggets, VanVleet, Vanderbilt, More

The latest trade intel column from Matt Moore of Action Network is packed full of tidbits about the upcoming deadline, including some details on which players a handful of Western Conference teams have made available.

According to Moore, the Pelicans – in the market for another shooter – have made players like Jaxson Hayes, Devonte’ Graham, and Naji Marshall available, while the Spurs are discussing Isaiah Roby in addition to previously reported trade candidates like Josh Richardson and Doug McDermott. Perhaps most interestingly, Moore says the Warriors consider Jonathan Kuminga “off limits,” but have been willing to discuss youngsters James Wiseman and Moses Moody.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets – who have put second-year guard Bones Hyland on the trade block – are seeking another wing and have their eye on players like Bulls guard Alex Caruso, Clippers guard Terance Mann, and Pacers swingman Chris Duarte, Moore writes.

Here’s more:

  • The Magic, who have previously been cited as a possible free agency suitor for Fred VanVleet, have “real” interest in the Raptors point guard, reports Moore. While VanVleet is thought to be available at the trade deadline due to his uncertain contract status beyond this season, one executive told Moore that trying to get a deal done with Toronto is “like blood from stone.”
  • There’s a growing belief that forward Jarred Vanderbilt will be on the move this week even if the Jazz don’t get the first-round pick they’re seeking for him, according to Moore, who suggest the Trail Blazers may be the frontrunner to land Vanderbilt.
  • Two league sources tell Moore that the Cavaliers have contacted the Hawks to inquire about Bogdan Bogdanovic. While there’s no indication those talks went anywhere, it’s worth noting Caris LeVert‘s $18.8MM salary is a near-perfect match for Bogdanovic’s $18MM cap hit.
  • Recent strong play from Knicks center Isaiah Hartenstein has reduced the odds that he’ll be traded before Thursday’s deadline — the belief is that he’ll remain in New York, per Moore.

Trade Rumors: Anunoby, Crowder, Heat, Thybulle, Wood, Russell, Plumlee

The Raptors will be looking for young talent rather than draft assets if they decide to trade OG Anunoby, multiple league insiders tell Christian Clark of NOLA. Toronto plans to wait until its current road trip ends on Sunday before making a decision on whether to part with Anunoby or any of its other top players.

Clark points out that the Pelicans can offer players such as Dyson Daniels, Herbert Jones and Naji Marshall, who are all on team-friendly contracts, along with a large collection of draft picks. In addition to holding all its own first-round picks over the next five years, New Orleans is owed future first-rounders from both the Lakers and Bucks.

Anunoby is one of the league’s top perimeter defenders, ranking first in both steals and deflections per game, and he shoots 39.2% on three-pointers. He can be used at shooting guard in a fully healthy lineup or he can handle either forward slot if Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson continue to battle injuries.

Here are a few more trade rumors from around the league:

  • The Bucks have been considered a potential landing spot for Jae Crowder, but John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM tweets that the Suns are unlikely to accept Milwaukee’s latest offer of Serge Ibaka, George Hill, Jordan Nwora, and second-round draft capital. Gambadoro also doesn’t expect Phoenix to wind up with Anunoby (Twitter link).
  • Assuming the Heat don’t make a play for Kyrie Irving, their main focus before the deadline will be finding another power forward or center who would be worth giving up a first-round pick, according to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. Jackson talks to a scout from a rival team about several trade prospects and what it would take to acquire them.
  • The Hawks have joined the Kings as suitors for Sixers guard Matisse Thybulle, Marc Stein writes in his latest Substack article. Sources tell Stein there’s a significant chance of Thybulle being moved by the deadline.
  • The Clippers are considering Mavericks big man Christian Wood and Timberwolves guard D’Angelo Russell, Stein adds in the same piece. He also states that the Kings have contacted the Hornets to see if Mason Plumlee is available. Sacramento is hoping to deal Richaun Holmes and Alex Len and would like to improve its interior defense.

Fischer’s Latest: Blazers, Pelicans, Collins, Bucks, Jazz

The Trail Blazers are still committed to building around Damian Lillard and intend to sign Jerami Grant to a long-term deal. One report also indicated that they view Anfernee Simons as “close to untouchable.

However, the remainder of the roster could be in play ahead of the trade deadline, according to Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports. Starters Josh Hart and Jusuf Nurkic appear to be available — ESPN’s Zach Lowe said a couple days ago that Hart’s name “is very, very hot right now,” and Fischer hears the same.

Nurkic, 28, has been Portland’s starting center for six-plus seasons. He became trade-eligible on January 15 after re-signing with the Blazers this past offseason, inking a four-year, $70MM contract.

The Blazers are targeting players athletic players with size and 3-and-D wings, sources tell Fischer.

Here are several more trade rumors from Fischer:

  • The Pelicans are interested in John Collins, but their talks with the Hawks have yet to gain much traction, sources tell Fischer. New Orleans is said to be looking for offensive upgrades and shooting, while Atlanta is searching for defensive upgrades. Money concerns may dampen the Pelicans’ pursuit of Collins, Fischer notes, as ownership has long avoided the luxury tax.  Like Chris Haynes of Bleacher Report, Fischer hears Atlanta is comfortable hanging onto Collins if the team doesn’t find an offer it likes.
  • Jaxson Hayes, Devonte’ Graham and Naji Marshall are among the players the Pelicans have had preliminary discussions about, sources tell Fischer, though not necessarily for Collins.
  • As he has reported multiple times, Fischer continues to hear that the Bucks are shopping Grayson Allen and second-round picks in search of a “defensive-minded forward” who makes around $10MM, which is why they’ve been trying to land Jae Crowder for seemingly months now.
  • The Jazz continue to actively shop Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt and Mike Conley, sources tell Fischer. Other veterans are also considered available. Marc Stein reported last week that the Clippers are interested in Conley, but a source tells Fischer that an L.A. deal for the point guard appears to be “unrealistic.”

Pelicans’ Zion Williamson Out At Least Two More Weeks

The Pelicans announced in a press release that star forward Zion Williamson was recently reevaluated, and while he is “making good progress” in his recovery from a right hamstring strain and is “healing as expected,” he will be out for at least two more weeks. He’ll be evaluated again at that time.

Williamson sustained the hamstring strain on January 2 against Philadelphia. He has missed the last three weeks with the injury.

At the time he was injured, the Pelicans were 23-14 and held the third-best record in the Western Conference. They have gone 3-7 in their 10 most recent games without Williamson, including four consecutive losses, to fall to 26-21, the fourth-best record in the West.

The 22-year-old was having a stellar season prior to his latest injury, averaging 26.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.1 steals while shooting 60.8% from the floor and 71.4% from the line through 29 games (33.0 minutes per contest). He almost certainly would have earned his second All-Star nod had he stayed healthy, and there’s still a chance he gets voted in, but it’s looking doubtful that he’ll return before the break and be able to participate in the exhibition game at this point.

Until Williamson and Brandon Ingram (toe) are able to return to the lineup, New Orleans will continue to lean on players like CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas and Trey Murphy, among others, for offensive production. Ingram and fellow forward Naji Marshall (toe) have been ruled out for Tuesday’s contest against Denver, per head coach Willie Green (Twitter link via Christian Clark of NOLA.com).

Pelicans Notes: Injuries, Ingram, Marshall, Green

Injuries to Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson threatened to knock the Pelicans out of the race for the top seed in the West, but the team has found a way to stay competitive, writes William Guillory of The Athletic. New Orleans improved to 6-3 without its top two players after a dominant win in Washington Monday night.

Ingram hasn’t played since November 25 because of a toe injury, and Williamson is dealing with a hamstring strain that will sideline him for at least two more weeks. The injury list got longer Monday when Herbert Jones left the game in the first half with a lower back contusion. CJ McCollum said the team has learned how to be resilient, regardless of who is available.

“We figure it out. We’ve got a lot of injuries. A lot of teams are going through it … It’s the time of year when you feel more fatigued mentally and physically,” McCollum said. “But you go through that process of having to fight through it, having to really push and trust and work. I think we’ve done that all year. For us to be in this position after the injuries we’ve had, it’s a testament to our team, our staff and our development.”

There’s more on the Pelicans:

  • Ingram said over the weekend that he hopes to return sometime during the team’s current road trip, tweets Andrew Lopez of ESPN. New Orleans will be in Boston Wednesday, Detroit Friday and Cleveland next Monday, and it’s not clear which game Ingram is targeting. Coach Willie Green said Ingram hasn’t participated in a full practice since the injury, according to Christian Clark of NOLA.com (Twitter link).
  • Naji Marshall became a believer in Green after watching YouTube clips of his playing career shortly after he was hired as head coach in 2021, Clark notes in a full story. Their bond grew as the Pelicans’ Summer League team posted a 5-0 record, led by Marshall and Jose Alvarado. Even though they weren’t awarded the Summer League title because of point differential, the experience convinced Marshall that Green could produce a winner in New Orleans. “It was major,” Marshall said. “He (Green) was new. He had new players. Really just wanted to show them the way. Was trying to build a foundation of defense first. Playing as hard as you can. We was the champs that year. We weren’t congratulated like we should. But I think we punched everyone in the mouth that summer.”
  • Clark hands out midseason grades for the Pelicans, giving A’s to Marshall, Williamson, Alvarado, Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson Daniels.

Southwest Notes: D. Green, Kemba, Pelicans, K. Martin

Appearing on NBA Today on Friday alongside Grizzlies wing Danny Green, who is recovering from an ACL tear, Brian Windhorst said that his fellow panelist might end up being a trade chip before February’s deadline.

“This is awkward, I’m sorry to say this, Danny,” Windhorst said (YouTube video link). “… One of the (trade possibilities) that people are talking about is if the Grizzlies want to upgrade, will they call about Danny Green and a draft pick? … I do think you will hear your name, I’m sorry to say, in some trade discussions.”

“I’m not shocked. At this point in my career, I hear my name quite often,” Green, who has been traded four times since the 2018 offseason, responded with a smile.

While it would make sense for the Grizzlies to dangle Green’s expiring $10MM contract along with a draft pick or two in an effort to upgrade their rotation, Windhorst also offered a couple reasons why a deal might not happen. As he points out, Memphis wants veteran leaders to complement its young core, and Green has won three championship rings. Additionally, the club has a solid record in the draft and may be reluctant to part with its picks.

Here’s more from around the Southwest:

  • With several Mavericks regulars sidelined, point guard Kemba Walker played 42 minutes in Saturday’s loss to Cleveland and looked like his old self. Walker put up 32 points and seven assists and was a plus-7 in a game Dallas lost by a single point, then told reporters after the game that he felt “really good out there” (Twitter link via Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News). While they shouldn’t expect that sort of production on a regular basis, Walker’s impressive play could be a significant development for the Mavs, tweets Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News.
  • The Pelicans no longer have All-Defensive mainstays like Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis on their roster, but homegrown players like Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado, Herb Jones and Dyson Daniels are buoying one of the NBA’s best defenses, writes Christian Clark of NOLA.com (subscription required). New Orleans currently ranks sixth in the league in defensive rating (109.7).
  • In an in-depth story for The Houston Chronicle (subscription required), Danielle Lerner profiles Kenyon Martin Jr. and explores how the forward has become a crucial “glue guy” for the Rockets. “He’s always been like a smart player, but I think he’s even smarter now,” head coach Stephen Silas said of Martin. “You know he’s not gonna make a mistake. He knows where he’s supposed to be. When it comes to defensive coverages or offensive plays, he’s usually in the right spot. And, you know, he is one of the guys that kind of gets us going with our transition game as well. So to have someone who’s running the floor and crashing the glass and using all this athleticism, but also a cerebral player, that makes him valuable.”

Pelicans Notes: CBA, Jones, Ingram, Marshall, Nance

Zion Williamson‘s continued evolution into a superstar and his health are foremost among the factors that will determine the Pelicans‘ long-term ceiling, but the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations currently taking place between the NBA and the players’ union will also have a major impact on the team’s future, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN.

As Windhorst writes, New Orleans’ roster – one of the NBA’s deepest – is starting to get more expensive and the club is one of two NBA franchises never to have paid the luxury tax, so any major changes to the tax system, including the possible implementation of an “upper spending limit,” would be of particular interest to the Pelicans.

Here’s more on the Pelicans:

  • Pelicans forward Herbert Jones appears set to return from a five-game absence due to a left ankle sprain, having been listed as probable to play on Tuesday in Utah, per Andrew Lopez of ESPN (Twitter link). Brandon Ingram will remain sidelined to a great left toe contusion — he hasn’t played since November 25, but New Orleans also hasn’t lost a game while he has been sidelined.
  • Described by his teammates as a “junkyard dog” and a “Swiss Army knife,” Naji Marshall isn’t one of the Pelicans’ top eight scorers, but he has become an important role player who brings physicality to the court and good vibes to the locker room, writes William Guillory of The Athletic. The former undrafted free agent is on a team-friendly minimum-salary contract that runs through next season.
  • Like Marshall, big man Larry Nance Jr. is a valuable reserve whose production off the bench has been a key part of the Pelicans’ depth, writes Christian Clark of NOLA.com (subscription required). A go-to option at center in fourth quarter lineups due to his defensive versatility, Nance is justifying New Orleans’ decision to sign him to an extension during the preseason. The team has a +11.6 net rating in his 553 minutes so far this season.

Pelicans Notes: AD Trade, Jones, Marshall, McCollum

The Anthony Davis trade continues to look great for New Orleans, according to Christian Clark of NOLA.com, who writes that the Lakers‘ failures will be the Pelicans‘ successes for at least two more years.

After receiving Los Angeles’ first-round pick in 2022 and using it to draft Dyson Daniels, New Orleans has swap rights with L.A. in 2023 and will get the Lakers’ first-rounder in 2024 (with the option to defer it to 2025). Given the way the Lakers have been playing, that means the Pelicans could have at least one more lottery pick headed their way, even if they make the playoffs.

In addition to the draft picks the Pelicans secured in the Davis trade, Brandon Ingram has turned into an All-Star caliber cornerstone for the organization. Plus, Josh Hart – who was part of the Davis blockbuster – was a key piece of the outgoing trade package in the 2022 deadline trade that sent CJ McCollum and Larry Nance to New Orleans.

The Pelicans will visit the Lakers on Wednesday night at Crypto.com Arena.

Here’s more on the Pelicans:

  • The Athetic’s Mike Prada, Jovan Buha, and Will Guillory also revisited the Davis trade, debating whether it can be viewed as a successful deal for both teams, given that the Lakers won a title with AD in 2020.
  • Pelicans forward Herb Jones appears to be ready to return to action after missing three games due to a hyperextended right knee. He has been listed as probable to play in Wednesday’s game in Los Angeles.
  • Naji Marshall, who is on a minimum-salary contract that runs through 2023/24, has been an important contributor for the Pelicans with Jones and Ingram sidelined as of late, Clark writes for NOLA.com. Marshall has scored 15 points and shot at least 53.8% from the field in each of his last three games, all starts. “Naji’s a dog, but he’s also very coachable and from a teammate perspective, like if you tell him, ‘Naj, maybe you should do it like this,’ he’s not gonna fight you on it,” Zion Williamson said. “He’s just gonna go out there and he’s going to do what’s asked of him. You love to have players like that on your team.”
  • In a Q&A with Mark Medina of NBA.com, CJ McCollum discussed his adjustment to a point guard role, how he’s dealing with a sprained finger, and where he thinks the Pelicans fit in the Western Conference pecking order. “It’s the Warriors and everybody else,” McCollum said, adding that New Orleans still has “a lot we have to learn and improve” after losing in the first round of the playoffs last season.

COVID-19 Updates: Vogel, Lue, Pelicans, Raptors, Pokusevski

One Los Angeles team is getting its head coach out of the NBA’s health and safety protocols today, while the other has placed their coach in the protocols.

The Lakers got the good news, as Frank Vogel has cleared the protocols and will be back on the sidelines for the team on Friday night vs. Portland, according to Dan Woike of The Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). David Fizdale will return to his role as Vogel’s lead assistant after serving as the acting head coach for the last 12 days.

Meanwhile, Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue has entered the protocols, according to an announcement from the team. Lue, the 10th head coach to be affected by the protocols this month, will be replaced in the short term by assistant Brian Shaw.

Here are more protocol-related updates from across the NBA:

  • The Pelicans got Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naji Marshall, and Jose Alvarado back at practice today following their respective stints in the COVID-19 protocols, tweets Christian Clark of NOLA.com. New Orleans isn’t entirely out of the woods though — center Jonas Valanciunas has entered the protocols, per Andrew Lopez of ESPN (Twitter link).
  • According to Blake Murphy of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link), Raptors rookie Justin Champagnie has exited the protocols, leaving Isaac Bonga as the only player from the team’s standard roster still affected. However, one of Toronto’s replacement players – D.J. Wilson – has now entered the protocols, Murphy notes.
  • Thunder forward Aleksej Pokusevski is no longer in the protocols and will be available for Friday’s contest vs. the Knicks, says Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman (Twitter link).