Nikola Pekovic

Free Agent Stock Watch: Nikola Pekovic

This morning, we heard from Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press that there's no chance the Wolves let center Nikola Pekovic sign with another team as a restricted free agent this summer. Of course, since the 27-year-old Pekovic can sign an offer sheet with any team, and since centers of his caliber and relatively young age have long been a commodity in the NBA, it's far from a certainty that he'll be back in Minnesota next season.

There appears to be a division within the Wolves front office about Pekovic's value, as Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities has reported on multiple occasions. Wolfson would be "shocked" if the Wolves agreed to pay him $12MM a year. Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors pointed to the contracts of JaVale McGee and DeAndre Jordan, both of whom are making close to $11MM annually, as evidence that Pekovic could draw offers for as much if not more this summer.

Pekovic is a few years older than both McGee and Jordan were when they signed their contracts, so he probably won't be viewed as having as much upside. He makes up for it with significantly greater production, particularly on the offensive end, where he's averaging 15.9 points per game on 50.9% shooting. Pekovic, like McGee, carries a high PER. Minnesota's center is posting a 19.5 PER this season, and is at 18.2 for his three-year career. Much of that efficiency comes from his work on the offensive boards. This season, he's 10th in offensive rebounding percentage after leading the NBA in 2011/12. One of his primary shortcomings appears to be basket protection, as Pekovic has never averaged a block a game despite standing 6'11". He's out with a strained abdominal muscle right now, but he's avoided major injury, and this is likely to be the first season he'll have missed as many as games for the Wolves.

It figures to be crowded at the top of the free agent center market this summer, as Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and Al Jefferson could all change teams. Pekovic, Tiago Splitter and J.J. Hickson provide clubs with a few Plan B's. Perhaps the Suns will attempt to trade Marcin Gortat. Still, it seems there are always fewer quality centers than there are teams looking for one, so I don't think Pekovic will have trouble finding an offer in the $12MM-a-year range. He probably won't get the maximum salary, which would probably be around $15MM a year, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's more likely to re-sign with Minnesota. The advantages a player's incumbent team has aren't nearly as pronounced when the free agent isn't a max guy. The Wolves are able to offer him five years instead of four, but they won't be able to offer him more money unless they overpay him.

Pekovic has spoken highly of the Wolves, citing his teammates and the coaching staff  last month when he said, "I like everything about Minnesota."  Kevin Love is optimistic his frontcourt mate will return, and the team will have plenty of cap flexibility to accomodate him. The Wolves only have $37.67MM committed for 2013/14, though Andrei Kirilenko could add about $10.2MM to that figure if he opts in for next season. Either way, Minnesota will have enough space for Pekovic even if he signs a maximum-salary offer sheet, which seems doubtful.

Much will hinge on whether the Wolves are confident that a core of Love, Pekovic and Ricky Rubio is capable of taking them where they want to go. They might be able to do better, but re-signing Pekovic probably gives them the quickest route to becoming a contender, or at least a top-four team in the West, by the time Love can opt out of his deal and become a free agent in the summer of 2015. Given Love's comments expressing doubt about his future with the team — remarks he tried to backtrack from — there's probably a sense of urgency within Minnesota's braintrust to start winning now. My guess is that'll be enough to convince the Wolves to go into the $12MM-a-year range it will likely take to keep Pekovic this summer, even as the team might try to depress his value by indicating they won't.

Timberwolves Likely To Re-Sign Nikola Pekovic

Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum figure to dominate headlines this summer when it comes to centers hitting the free agent market, but Nikola Pekovic is another free-agent-to-be that shouldn't be overlooked. The Timberwolves big man will become a restricted free agent in July, and according to Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, "people who know" believe there's no chance the T-Wolves let Pekovic sign elsewhere.

Pekovic, who is earning about $4.84MM this season, is enjoying the best year of his young career, averaging 15.9 PPG and 8.8 RPG in 31.6 minutes per contest. Pekovic will be in line for a big raise next year, with an eight-digit annual salary to be expected.

Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities has reported repeatedly that there may be a difference of opinions in the Wolves' front office when it comes to Pekovic's value. Wolfson tweeted yesterday that he'd be "shocked" if Minnesota went as high as $12MM annually on a long-term contract for the 27-year-old. Still, given the number of teams expected to have cap space this summer, as well as long-term deals we've seen players like JaVale McGee and DeAndre Jordan sign, it's hard to imagine that Pekovic won't command something in that $11-12MM neighborhood.

As we covered yesterday, Kevin Love recently told Grantland's Zach Lowe that he feels good about Minnesota's chances of re-signing Pekovic, because "when he's familiar with something, he kind of sticks with it." If that's the case, perhaps the three-year veteran will consider giving the T-Wolves a bit of a hometown discount when the two sides enter negotiations.

Wolves Notes: Love, Pekovic, Kirilenko, Cap

Grantland's Zach Lowe has a pair of new pieces up today, publishing a Q&A with Kevin Love to go along with his usual Tuesday column. Both pieces are heavy on Timberwolves items, so let's round up the highlights….

  • Love agrees with Lowe that the current T-Wolves roster "definitely looks good on paper," and suggests that getting as many players back and healthy for the last few weeks of the season would be advantageous. "We just have to see if this is the foundation for the future, and hopefully we can keep all of this team together," Love said. "This is another big summer, even though we’ve been hearing that same tone every year from the front office about every summer. But we have to see what we have right now."
  • Love believes that Nikola Pekovic is "familiar with something, he kind of sticks with it," so he's optimistic about the Wolves' chances of re-signing the big man this summer.
  • Andrei Kirilenko has a player option for next season, but Lowe thinks Kirilenko is likely to opt out in search of a longer-term deal. Something in the neighborhood of three years and $27MM could work for both Kirilenko and the Wolves, according to Lowe.
  • If the Wolves re-sign Kirilenko to a multiyear deal and bring back Pekovic at an eight-figure annual salary, the team will be capped out until Love's contract expires, writes Lowe. That means the club will essentially have to decide this summer whether or not the current core is the long-term answer.

Wolves Rumors: Kirilenko, Mayo, Mozgov, Redick

Here's the latest on the Timberwolves from Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities….

  • General manager David Kahn isn't convinced he'll be able to make a deal by tomorrow's deadline, but it won't be from lack of trying, says Wolfson. The T-Wolves have made Luke Ridnour, J.J. Barea, Derrick Williams, and Brandon Roy available as they explore trade options.
  • The Wolves have received more calls about Andrei Kirilenko than anyone else, but the club won't move the Russian forward, barring a "too-good-to-be-true offer."
  • Minnesota's top priority is a wing player with size. The team reached out to the Mavericks about O.J. Mayo, but was rebuffed, according to Wolfson.
  • The Wolves like Timofey Mozgov and view him as a good value in free agency this summer, but are unlikely to reach a compromise on a trade with the Nuggets.
  • To acquire J.J. Redick or Avery Bradley, the Wolves would have to give up Williams and a first-round pick, according to Wolfson. That's not happening for Bradley and is very unlikely for Redick.
  • Rick Adelman and the Wolves like Courtney Lee and are keeping an eye on him, but they didn't want to offer four years in free agency last summer, so the contract could bother them.
  • Adelman told season ticket holders that the Wolves' goal is to re-sign Nikola Pekovic this summer. However, some team sources aren't sure Pekovic is worth $11MM annually, and question his ability to stay healthy, says Wolfson.

Wolves Rumors: Ridnour, Pekovic, Williams, Roy

As usual, Friday morning means the latest installment of Darren Wolfson's Scoops column has been published at 1500ESPN.com. With Minnesota expected to be active in trade talks over the next several days, let's check out the latest Timberwolves rumors from Wolfson….

  • The Knicks are one of several teams interested in Luke Ridnour, who is mentally preparing to be moved. The Celtics, Sixers, and Jazz are among the other clubs with varying degrees of interest, says Wolfson.
  • Nikola Pekovic has been assured by the T-Wolves that he isn't going anywhere for now.
  • While Derrick Williams is still available, a trade over the summer may be more likely, according to Wolfson.
  • Brandon Roy's financial advisor is still "rejecting overtures" on a buyout. It seems unlikely the Wolves will be able to move his salary in a trade, so a buyout would be the team's preferred route.
  • When Chris Johnson signed for the rest of the season with the Wolves, the contract included a second year. Wolfson expects that it'll essentially be a team option for 2013/14 — a non-guaranteed minimum salary.

Northwest Rumors: Carroll, Olshey, Pekovic

There are only six games in the NBA tonight, but four of the five Northwest Division teams are in action, including a clash between the Nuggets and Jazz in a matchup that would be a first-round pairing if the playoffs began today. The division's other teams in action tonight are on the road, with the Trail Blazers facing a stiff test against the Heat while the Nuggets take on the Raptors. While we wait to see how those games turn out, here's what's happening off the court around the Northwest:

  • Jazz forward DeMarre Carroll will be a free agent this summer, but he feels he's found his niche in Utah, as Jared Zwerling of ESPN The Magazine details.
  • Blazers GM Neil Olshey sat down with broadcaster Mike Barrett for a one-on-one that's up on the team's website (video link), and Ben Golliver of Blazer's Edge provides a transcript. Olshey said he coveted Nicolas Batum when he held the Clippers GM job, and revealed that owner Paul Allen never wavered in his commitment to match the offer sheet Batum signed with the Timberwolves this summer.
  • Rival executives tell Grantland's Zach Lowe that the Nuggets are "projecting calm" in advance of the trade deadline. The team seems fairly satisfied with its young core and doesn't want to add much or any payroll, so major moves are unlikely. That's in line with coach George Karl's recent comments indicating there's only a slight chance the team makes a deadline trade. Still, the most common prediction from executives around the league about Denver's playoff chances this year is that they'll go out in the second round.
  • The Wolves love Nikola Pekovic and don't want to trade him, so the smart money is on the club making a smaller move, perhaps one that includes Luke Ridnour, writes Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld.

Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors contributed to this post.

Wolves Links: Pekovic, Taylor, Johnson, Trades

We rounded up several items on the Timberwolves this morning, but after a day when the team inked Chris Johnson and Mickael Gelabale for the rest of the season, letting Louis Amundson go at the same time, there's plenty more to report from Minnesota. Here's the latest:

  • Nikola Pekovic is set to hit restricted free agency this summer, but he's talking like he'd welcome a return to the Wolves, as Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press documents. "I like everything about Minnesota," the 27-year-old center said. "First of all, I like the team. I think we can do a lot when we're healthy. I like the coaching staff."
  • Walters also notes that commissioner David Stern and Wolves owner Glen Taylor met to discuss Taylor's potential successor. Negotiations with the unnamed investor are going slowly, Taylor said.
  • GM David Kahn says Johnson has the edge on Gelabale to stick with the team next season, the Star Tribune's Kent Youngblood notes. That makes sense, since we heard earlier today that Kahn and Johnson had discussed adding 2013/14 to the rest-of-season deal the big man signed today.
  • Rick Adelman hints that the team isn't done after today's moves, as Youngblood details in the same piece. "We felt these guys were young, they came in and did a good job, and they give us bodies at the spots we need," the coach said. "[But] we'd better be hoping to do something. We have to improve this team."

Poll: Will The Wolves Make A Trade?

The Timberwolves, who have now been without Kevin Love for more than a month, have lost 14 of 16 and are at risk of letting their season get away from them.  With Love not expected back for at least another month, there is an increasing likelihood that Minnesota will be sellers come deadline time. 

Per Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press, team president Davis Kahn was asked about his team's plans before Monday's loss to the Blazers, telling reporters, "We'll do something if it's in the interest of both the now and the future.  We don't feel compelled to do something. But by the same token, we also don't feel that we can afford to just kind of sit it out. We have to really find out what's out there."

The Wolves are reportedly planning to reassess their situation after their current six-game homestand.  Kahn has already predictably called Ricky Rubio and Love "untouchable," and has expressed interest in keeping Nikola Pekovic around long-term as well, despite the center drawing interest around the league. 

With that considered, it sounds as if Kahn understands the risks of standing pat, the most notable of which being the failure to maximize return on the team's expendable assets.  So what type of move will the Wolves make, if any?

Odds & Ends: Jennings, Pekovic, Flynn, Draft

Perhaps the most accomplished fourth-year player not to receive a contract extension before the season, it appears Brandon Jennings is preparing for restricted free agency this summer. According to Liz Mullen of the Sports Business Journal (Twitter link), Jennings has parted ways with agent Bill Duffy of BDA Sports Management. It's not clear yet who will be representing Jennings as he approaches free agency, but Duffy indicated that he wishes the Bucks guard "nothing but the best" (Twitter link). Here are a few more Monday odds and ends from around the NBA:

  • Past reports have suggested the Trail Blazers have interest in Nikola Pekovic, and Pekovic considers that a compliment, writes Chris Haynes of CSNNW.com. "That's really nice when you hear that other teams like Portland really want to bring you in," Pekovic said. "That means that I'm doing a good job and they like what I'm doing. That's something nice."
  • Productive players on rookie deals are among the league's most valuable commodities, but sometimes maximizing their value means trading them at the right time, says Tom Ziller of SBNation.com.
  • Jonny Flynn's All-Star season in Australia may put him back on the NBA radar, writes Wendell Maxey of Ridiculous Upside.
  • In his weekly Morning Tip piece at NBA.com, TNT's David Aldridge explores the Grizzlies' decision to trade Rudy Gay and speculates on who might be the next executive director of the NBPA.
  • In their latest look at this June's potential draft class, Jay Bilas and Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider link) examine the nation's best big-men prospects.

Wolves Rumors: Rubio, Love, Pekovic, Amundson

On Wednesday, when the Raptors and Grizzlies were on their way to finalizing the Rudy Gay deal, the Pistons, Celtics, and Mavericks were all mentioned as the potential third team involved, with Detroit eventually helping to facilitate the trade. According to Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com, the Timberwolves were never in the mix as the potential third team in the trade, but the Hawks were in play. Here's more from Wolfson on the T-Wolves:

  • While club president David Kahn recently called Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love "untouchable" in trade talks, he didn't say the same about Nikola Pekovic, though he said he hopes the big man is "part of us for many years to come."
  • According to Wolfson, there's still a difference of opinion in the front office about whether Pekovic is worth a big, long-term deal. Still, he's likely not going anywhere this month — Wolfson says that if a trade comes, it's more likely to be a sign-and-trade deal over the summer.
  • Minnesota doesn't have interest in trying to trade for Josh Smith, and also hasn't inquired on Greg Oden yet.
  • Wolfson hears from multiple sources that Andrea Bargnani is an unlikely fit for the T-Wolves. While one source "scoffed" at the idea, another didn't rule it out entirely, says Wolfson.
  • The Knicks and Sixers are believed to have some interest in Louis Amundson, who is expected to be the odd man out once the Wolves lose their ability to carry 16 players. This is my speculation, but I'd imagine both teams would be more inclined to wait for the Wolves to waive him, rather than giving up any real assets in a trade.