O.J. Mayo

Timberwolves To Target O.J. Mayo

With Flip Saunders assuming control of the Timberwolves' basketball operations, the team's coming offseason figures to play out a little differently than past summers under GM David Kahn. Nonetheless, it sounds as if Saunders will be targeting at least one player that Kahn pursued in the past. Dan Barreiro of KFAN in Minneapolis tweets that he expects the T-Wolves to "go hard" after O.J. Mayo this summer.

Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities follows up on Barreiro's tweet, confirming his report and noting (via Twitter) that he has heard from multiple people that Saunders likes Mayo. Wolfson adds (via Twitter) that the Wolves figure to have plenty of other players on their wish list and that creating the necessary cap space for the free agent guard may be tricky, but that Mayo has been cited by multiple sources as a likely target for Minnesota.

Assuming Brandon Roy's and Greg Stiemsma's contracts for 2013/14 are fully non-guaranteed, the Wolves only have about $36MM in guaranteed salary on their books for next season. That would seem to give them plenty of room to make a run at Mayo, who I predicted would earn more than the mid-level. However, that total doesn't include Andrei Kirilenko's $10.22MM player option, and it also assumes the team won't bring back restricted free agent Nikola Pekovic. If Kirilenko opts in and Pekovic returns on a $10-12MM salary, the Wolves won't have much room left to make Mayo a lucrative offer.

A sign-and-trade deal with the Mavericks is also a possibility if Minnesota doesn't have the necessary cap space to sign Mayo outright. But taking on salary in a Mayo trade could compromise Dallas' other plans in free agency, so I'd expect the Mavs to be reluctant to work out a Mayo deal unless they were presented an offer they couldn't refuse.

It's also worth mentioning that, since Mayo has a $4.2MM player option for next season, he could still decide to exercise that option before June 30th, avoiding free agency. The 25-year-old is considered extremely likely to opt out and become a free agent though.

Western Notes: Mayo, Wright, Beverley

The Dallas Morning News relayed some quotes from Mavericks beat writer Eddie Sefko today, from his appearance on 1310 AM The Ticket. Regarding O.J. Mayo, Sefko doesn't think that the Mavs will make an offer "too far north of the mid-level exception" and estimates a reasonable offer to be close to around a four-year deal at around $30MM. He also thinks that Mayo's starting offers will be for the mid-level exception. As for Brandan Wright, Sefko believes that retaining the 6'9 big man as a reserve in addition to finding a starting center would help shore up their rotation at the five spot. Here are a few more miscellaneous notes out of the Western Conference tonight:
  • Fresh off of his 16-point, 12-rebound, and six assists performance against Oklahoma City, Rockets guard Patrick Beverley isn't fazed at all by the playoff atmosphere, crediting the hostile environment from his experiences in Europe for his ability to handle the pressure now (Jonathan Feigen of Ultimate Rockets writes): “It’s different here. You have cities versus cities, states versus states. There, it’s countries against countries. I’ve played in games and got hit in the face with quarters, played with my face bleeding. I’ve played in hostile environments a lot. The first round of the playoffs I can deal with.” 
  • Max Ogden of Sheridan Hoops gives an update on Kostas Papanikolaou, the 48th selection of last year's NBA draft by the Knicks whose draft rights were later traded to the Trail Blazers. The 22-year-old forward has continued his progression for the defending Euroleague champion Olympiacos. 
  • NBA commissioner David Stern commended the Rockets for how they handled Royce White's situation, saying "we'll see what happens" with regard to White's future (Reid Laymance of Ultimate Rockets). 
  • This NBA.com article focuses on Andre Miller, who at age 37 is leading the third-seeded Nuggets in his quest to get out of the first round for the first time in nine playoff appearances. 

Odds & Ends: Mayo, Larkin, Collison, Raptors

Patrick Beverley was a surprise starter for the Rockets tonight, and his performance was even more astounding, as he racked up 16 points, 12 rebounds and six assists to help Houston come within three points of beating the top-seeded Thunder at home. Beverley was playing in Russia at the beginning of the season, and didn't make his NBA debut until he completed a week-long stint in the D-League after the Rockets signed him in January. His play tonight underscores the importance of seemingly under-the-radar transactions. As always, we'll keep track of NBA moves both great and small, and here's the latest:

  • The Jazz may make a strong push to sign O.J. Mayo this summer, HoopsWorld's Steve Kyler hears (Twitter link). Luke Adams of Hoops Rumors wrote in March that Mayo could command better than the full mid-level, though that was before the shooting guard's April slump. 
  • Last week Chad Ford of ESPN.com heard University of Miami sophomore Shane Larkin was leaning toward entering the draft, but Larkin tweets that his decision is still up in the air, and that he'll make an announcement Sunday evening.
  • Darren Collison probably won't return to the Mavericks unless he accepts a backup role, writes Tim McMahon of ESPN.com, who nonetheless believes Collison should be a well-paid backup, projecting that he'll sign a four-year, $15MM deal.
  • There are plenty of philosophical differences between Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo and coach Dwane Casey, but ownership wouldn't look kindly upon Colangelo if he fired his third coach in less than five years, observes Eric Koreen of the National Post
  • Michael Jordan has hired four coaches, but none of them have lasted as long as three seasons, leading Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer to wonder if Jordan and the Bobcats front office are more deserving of blame than former coach Mike Dunlap.

Mavericks Links: Collison, Brand, Mayo

Headed for free agency this summer, Mavericks point guard Darren Collison told reporters that he’s capable of starting on any team. Despite finishing the final 23 games of the season as a reserve, the former UCLA product hasn’t ruled out a return to the Mavericks, even if it means he’d continue that role (Dwain Price of the Star-Telegram reports). Also, as Jon Machota of SportsDayDFW notes, Collison hasn't had any discussions with his agent about where he could end up next season. Here are a few more links to share out of Dallas:

  • Price also hears that Elton Brand would like to return to Dallas next season in order to make up for being unable to help the team make the playoffs this season. Picked up off of amnesty before the start of the season, the former number one overall pick averaged 7.2 PPG and 6.0 RPG, marking the first year in his career with his scoring average in the single-figures. 
  • Count head coach Rick Carlisle among the proponents of bringing O.J. Mayo back in a Mavs uniform next season, writes Price. This morning, we heard that the 25-year-old swingman plans to opt out of his contract in hopes of negotiating a long-term deal with Dallas. 

O.J. Mayo To Opt Out, Become Free Agent

O.J. Mayo will not pick up his player option for next season, opting instead to hit free agency, according to Earl K. Sneed of Mavs.com (Twitter link). Sneed adds that Mayo is hoping to sign a long-term deal with the Mavericks.

Mayo, 25, would make $4.2MM in the last season of his two-year contract with Dallas if he were to exercise his option. Instead, he figures to receive a raise, and should land a multiyear guarantee as well.

When I examined Mayo's free agent stock last month, I wrote that I expected him to easily exceed the mid-level deals signed by players like Jason Terry, Jamal Crawford, and Louis Williams in 2012. However, his stock may have taken a bit of a hit since then. April was his worst month with the Mavs, as he averaged only 8.6 PPG on 38.5% shooting, both well below his full-season marks (15.3 PPG, 44.9% shooting). He also drew the ire of coach Rick Carlisle, who had some harsh criticism for Mayo after a loss this week.

According to Ric Bucher of 95.7 The Game (via Sulia), there's a noticeable divide in the perception around the league on how much Mayo could earn in free agency. Bucher writes that some GMs don't think he'll earn much more than the $4MM he made this season, while others think he could make up to $10-12MM annually.

Odds & Ends: Jeffries, Coaches, Kahn, Raptors

Blazers owner Paul Allen spoke to reporters this evening about the offseason for his team, which begins tomorrow, and it seems one decision will have to be made fairly quickly. Jared Jeffries is under contract for the next two seasons, but neither is guaranteed. Next season would become guaranteed if he's not waived by the fifth day following Portland's final game this season, according to Mark Deeks of ShamSports. Chris Haynes of CSNNW.com believes it's likely that Jeffries won't be back, judging by the 31-year-old's lack of playing time this season, so it appears the Blazers could be cutting him loose soon. Jeffries wants to remain in the NBA next season, however, and tells Haynes that he'll be looking for more playing time wherever he winds up.

As we wait to learn the fate of Jeffries and others as the offseason begins for nearly half the league, there's plenty more NBA news:

  • Sam Amick of USA Today examines which coaches are most likely to be out of work soon, placing Mike Dunlap among those in the greatest danger of losing their jobs, along with Keith Smart, Byron Scott and Lawrence Frank. He also suggests that if Rick Adelman returns to the Wolves, GM David Kahn will as well, but if the coach isn't back, Kahn may be on the outs, too.
  • Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo insists to Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun that he never tried to fire coach Dwane Casey this season, as Simmons had previously reported.
  • Wizards owner Ted Leonsis, speaking with the team's broadcasters during tonight's game, said retaining unrestricted free agent Martell Webster will be key, confirming a pair of recent reportsCSNWashington.com has the video, in which Leonsis also expresses a desire to keep John Wall long-term.
  • Executives around the league who spoke to Ric Bucher of 95.7 The Game are widely split on how much O.J. Mayo could command if he turns down his $4.2MM option for next season. Some figure he can't expect much of a raise, and others believe he could easily make $10MM-$12MM (Sulia link).
  • Point guard Josiah Turner, who played professionally in Canada this year after leaving the University of Arizona, will enter the draft, a source tells Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link). Neither DraftExpress nor ESPN.com rate Turner as a top 100 prospect.

Southwest Notes: Hornets, Mayo, Brand, Spurs

As we look forward to the last night of the NBA's 2012/13 regular season, let's round up a few items out of the Southwest Division….

  • Although the Hornets will finish as one of the bottom three teams in the Western Conference, coach Monty Williams is encouraged by the strides some of his players made this season. "There are a lot of positives," Williams told John Reid of the Times-Picayune. "We firmly believe that guys who come here have a great chance to improve their game because of our program and the things we do. I think it’s just going to get better as we add experience and start to bring in more talent in the next few years."
  • O.J. Mayo, who has a player option for 2013/14, says he'd like to return to the Mavericks next season, tweets Dwain Price of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. I'd still be surprised if Mayo exercises the option rather than exploring the market.
  • Elton Brand also expressed a desire to return to the Mavs next season, though he said "we'll see what happens in the summer," as Price tweets.
  • Writing for The Basketball Jones, Mark Deeks of ShamSports notes how unusual it is for established NBA players like Tracy McGrady to sign deals at the end of the regular season. For the Spurs, there may not be much potential reward, but there's no risk either, says Deeks.
  • The Grizzlies inked a pair of free agents earlier today, adding Donte Greene and Willie Reed.

Western Notes: Mayo, Blazers, Clark, Prince

We rounded up a few items from out of the Eastern Conference earlier in the day. Now let's head west….

  • Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle had harsh words for O.J. Mayo during and after last night's game against the Grizzlies, as Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com details. Mayo is widely expected to decline his 2013/14 player option and test free agency this summer, though MacMahon notes that the USC product recently told ESPNDallas.com he has yet to make a decision on the option.
  • Carlisle's comments on Mayo show why the Trail Blazers shouldn't consider pursuing the shooting guard if he hits free agency this summer, says Dwight Jaynes of CSNNW.com.
  • According to a Sports Business Daily report passed along by HoopsHype, Earl Clark has changed agents, making the transition from Happy Walters of Relativity Sports to Kevin Bradbury at BDA Sports.
  • Having been acquired by the Grizzlies in January's Rudy Gay blockbuster, Tayshaun Prince is excited to be back in the postseason, and tells Derek Page of HoopsWorld he's happy for Ed Davis and Austin Daye, who also came to Memphis in the deal.

Free Agent Stock Watch: O.J. Mayo

When the Mavericks missed out on Deron Williams a year ago, the team moved on to Plan B, which involved adding a number of players on one-year contracts via free agency and trades. Of the Mavs' non-rookie additions last offseason, only O.J. Mayo received more than a one-year deal, as the 25-year-old's contract included a player option for 2013/14. However, after emerging as the second-best scorer on a Dallas team in the hunt for a playoff spot, Mayo appears poised to turn down that option in search of a new contract this summer.

Mayo's 16.4 PPG is a significant step up from his scoring averages in his final two seasons in Memphis (11.3 and 12.6 PPG), but he's also seen a major boost in minutes since arriving in Dallas, playing 35.7 per game after averaging 26.8 during his last two years with the Grizzlies. As such, Mayo's points per 36 minutes average this season is actually right in line with his career mark.

Nonetheless, the improvement in Mayo's free agent stock shouldn't be viewed as entirely artificial. He's scoring his points more efficiently than he did in his first four seasons, averaging career-highs in FG% (.462) and 3PT% (.416), while taking fewer shots per 36 minutes than he ever has before. That efficiency is reflected in his PER as well, which presently sits at a career-high 15.2. Throw in a career-best assist rate, and it's not hard to see why Mayo is in line for a raise in July.

Coming off his fourth year in Memphis in 2012, Mayo didn't receive a qualifying offer from the Grizzlies, but still landed an offer from the Mavs that would have been worth most of the mid-level exception, at $4.02MM (Dallas signed him using cap space). If we assume the former third overall pick is a lock to turn down his $4.2MM option for 2013/14, it's probably also safe to assume that he'll be seeking a starting salary worth more than the mid-level.

Of course, just because Mayo will be looking for that sort of salary doesn't mean he'll receive those offers — he was seeking more than the MLE last July, and didn't have any luck. But given his performance this season, I'd expect Mayo to earn at least one or two offers worth north of $6-7MM annually. That would rule out taxpaying teams, who can't offer more than the mini MLE and can't acquire players via sign-and-trade. Over-the-cap teams could work out a sign-and-trade for Mayo, so there may be a few that enter the mix, but it's the clubs with cap room that figure to be the primary suitors.

The Mavericks are one team poised to have cap room again, and if they're going to keep any of the players currently on one-year deals with the club, Mayo appears to be the best bet. He'll likely be a Plan B again, since the team wouldn't be able to afford to pursue this year's top-tier free agents with Mayo on its books. But there are scenarios in which the Mavs could conceivably have room to bring back Mayo and sign another second-tier free agent such as Brandon Jennings or Paul Millsap.

Multiple Detroit-based writers have suggested Mayo could be near the top of the Pistons' wish list this summer, and the team is expected to have a good chunk of cap room at its disposal. It's hard not to mention the Hawks as a potential suitor for just about everyone, since the team has less than $20MM in guaranteed commitments on its books for next season, and has given no real indication of what its plan will be. Other possible fits might include the Bobcats, Cavaliers, and Suns.

Having already played his way into what should be a nice payday this summer, Mayo could improve his free agent stock even more with a strong finish to the 2012/13 season. A year ago against the Clippers, Mayo laid an egg in the first round, scoring 8.9 PPG on 27.4% shooting, and you could certainly make an argument that the performance cost him a few bucks in free agency.

The Mavs are extremely unlikely to make a run at a title this season, but a playoff berth certainly appears within reach, given the recent struggles of the Lakers and Jazz. If Mayo could help the team sneak into the postseason and perhaps win a first-round game or two against a team like the Thunder or Spurs, it may convince a few NBA execs that he can be a go-to scoring option on a contending team. In that case, I'd expect him to easily exceed the mid-level deals signed by shooting guards like Jamal Crawford, Louis Williams, and Jason Terry in 2012.

Free Agent Notes: Mayo, Kaman, Bynum, Howard

We're still a long way from the NBA offseason, but as teams are eliminated from playoff contention (and eventually the playoffs), we should start to hear more and more about their free agents.  Here are a few links on some of the players that will be part of this summer's free agent crop:

  • In his Tuesday chat session, Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News says that O.J. Mayo can be the third best player on a legitimate title contender and that the Mavericks need to bring him back if they can get him at the right price.  For Sefko, that price is somewhere under $10MM per year.  He recommends something in the ballpark of a four-year, $30-35MM pact, though he admits that may not get it done for Mayo.
  • Sefko also opines that Chris Kaman, a free agent at season's end, will likely sign elsewhere this offseason.  One option to replace Kaman at center would be Andrew Bynum, who Sefko calls "double-damaged-goods" because of his balky knees.  However, Sefko says the Mavs should still consider offering Bynum their mid-level exception because should he return to health, at his age, he could be then be the NBA's biggest bargain.
  • With news of his knee surgeries, Moke Hamilton of Sheridan Hoops has dropped Bynum to 13th on Free Agency Rankings.  According to Hamilton, Bynum's talent makes him worthy of a multi-year deal, but anything more than three years is unlikely.
  • Dwight Howard has fired his business manager and cousin, Kevin Samples, after nine years of service, Kevin Ding of the Orange County Register reports.  Ding suggests that this move is another step in Howard's transformation into his "own man".  Without Samples, who moved to Los Angeles when Howard joined the Lakers, Howard will presumably head into free agency looking elsewhere for advice.