Tyler Herro

Heat Notes: Herro, Okpala, Trade Options, Training Camp

September 17th, 2022 at 8:12pm CST by Arthur Hill

The deadline for rookie scale extensions is just a month away, and the Heat have a major decision to make regarding Tyler Herro, writes Ira Winderman of The Sun-Sentinel. After earning Sixth Man of the Year honors last season, Herro is in line for a new contract that Winderman estimates will exceed $25MM per year, whether that happens in the next 30 days or in restricted free agency next summer.

Winderman believes the most important factor for Miami’s front office is determining whether a significant trade is likely to present itself before the February deadline. Herro could be a valuable bargaining chip in landing another star, but if his extension is already in place, the poison pill provision will make him extremely difficult to move in 2022/23.

Situations involving the players most likely to be dealt this offseason have already been resolved, and no other stars appear unhappy with their current teams. However, Winderman points to the Pacers’ Myles Turner and the Hawks’ John Collins as players who might be available and notes that situations can change rapidly in a few months. He also points out that the rising salary cap means more teams will have money to spend next July, so Herro will be almost certain to receive a generous offer sheet.

There’s more from Miami:

KZ Okpala has a new opportunity with the Kings, but the Heat gave him plenty of chances before deciding to trade him, Winderman states in a separate story. The power forward spent nearly three full seasons in Miami before being shipped to Oklahoma City in February, but he was never able to establish himself as part of the rotation.
Heat fans have gotten used to watching the team pursue star players, but that may not be a realistic option for this season, according to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. The Heat are the only Eastern Conference playoff team that didn’t add a new rotation player during the offseason, and Jackson notes that no All-Star has tried to force his way to Miami since Jimmy Butler, even though it was rumored as a possible destination for Kevin Durant and Donovan Mitchell. Jackson says it’s a more realistic strategy to use some of the team’s draft assets to target someone along the lines of Turner, Jae Crowder or Bojan Bogdanovic if the Heat need a boost around the deadline.
The Heat will hold training camp in the Bahamas, Jackson adds in a separate piece. Baha Mar, one of the Caribbean’s largest event venues, announced that it has a multi-year deal in place with the team.

Extension Candidate: Tyler Herro

September 6th, 2022 at 2:54pm CST by Rory Maher

This is the first installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re getting underway with a look at the NBA’s reigning Sixth Man of the Year.

Rundown:

The No. 13 overall pick of the 2019 draft after one year at Kentucky, Tyler Herro made an immediate impact in 55 games (27.4 minutes) as a rookie, averaging 13.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists on .428/.389/.870 shooting for a Heat team that came within two games of a championship. He had a strong playoff run in the Orlando bubble, bumping those averages up to 16.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG and 3.7 APG on .433/.375/.870 shooting in 21 contests (33.6 minutes).

Herro improved his counting stats during his second season in ‘20/21, averaging 15.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists, though his efficiency declined slightly, with a .439/.360/.803 shooting line. As opposed to his strong postseason showing as a rookie, Herro, like the rest of Miami’s roster, struggled mightily while being swept by the Bucks in the first round, averaging just 9.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 1.8 APG on .316/.316/1.000 shooting in four games (23.3 minutes).

Herro emerged as the league’s most dangerous bench scorer last season, winning the Sixth Man of the Year award after appearing in 66 games (32.6 minutes) while averaging 20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists on .447/.399/.868 shooting. However, he once again struggled in the playoffs with defenses more focused on slowing him down, averaging 12.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG and 2.8 APG on .409/.229/.926 shooting in 15 contests (25.4 minutes).

Strengths:

Among players who officially qualified, Herro ranked 21^st in the NBA in points per game last season. He is someone opposing defenses are forced to game-plan against.

His primary skill is that he’s an excellent shooter from all over the court, ranking in the 63^rd percentile from mid-range, 87^th on threes, and 87^th from the free throw line, per DunksAndThrees.com.

The threat of Herro’s shooting creates space for teammates, which is really important for a Heat team that struggles at times to space the floor. For as valuable as they are at basically every other aspect of basketball, neither Jimmy Butler nor Bam Adebayo is a three-point threat, so Miami’s offense can be a bit crowded at times, especially in half court settings.

Herro isn’t just a shooter either, as he shows some impressive play-making chops at times. He’s capable of creating high-quality looks for himself and others on both scripted plays and on the fly.

He posted a 21% assist percentage last season, which was in the 79^th percentile of all players. He has good vision and is capable of making difficult one-handed cross-court passes, though he definitely looks for his own shot more often than not.

Herro is capable of acting as a lead ball-handler in spot minutes, and while he isn’t the greatest decision-maker yet (1.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he shows flashes of being able to handle those duties. He’s also a solid rebounder, especially on the defensive glass, with a 15% defensive rebounding rate (59^th percentile).

Improvement Areas:

Physical limitations will likely always be an issue for Herro, which is something that’s mostly out of his control. Though he has decent height for a shooting guard at 6’5”, his wingspan is only 6’4”, he isn’t the greatest athlete, and he isn’t the strongest player, leading to him getting pushed around at times.

Those limitations show up in two key areas. The first is that he’s a below-the-rim finisher, and while he has good touch on floaters, he rarely gets all the way to the rim.

According to Basketball-Reference, only 13.7% of Herro’s shots came within three feet of the basket, compared to 27.9% of his looks from 10 feet to the three-point line. He prefers to shoot pull-ups rather than initiating contact in the paint.

The fact that he attempts so many mid-rangers and doesn’t get to the line a ton hurts his overall efficiency (of the 27 players who qualified for the scoring title and averaged at least 20 points, Herro was 25^th in free throw attempts). His true shooting percentage (56.1%) was a little below league average (56.6%) last season.

The second area that Herro really needs to improve upon is his defense, which has been particularly problematic in the playoffs. He has been repeatedly targeted as a weak defensive link in each of his three postseason trips.

Opponents shot better (45.7%) than expected (44.8%) with Herro defending them in the regular season, and that gap grew during the playoffs (rivals shot 48.9% versus 46% expected), per NBA.com. And that’s with Herro coming off the bench and the Heat trying to hide him on the opposing teams’ weakest offensive players.

Out of 67 players who averaged at least 32 minutes and appeared in at least 30 games, Herro ranked 62^nd in deflections per game with 1.2. He rarely draws charges, and averaged less than one stock (steals plus blocks) per game last season, which is quite poor (0.7 SPG and 0.1 BPG). His steal percentage (1.0%) ranked in the 21^st percentile of all players, and his block percentage (0.4%) was in the ninth percentile, per DunksAndThrees.

Conclusion:

Young players are inherently polarizing because they are not finished products. When you watch them play, you’re ideally looking for positive traits that can be translated into future success, but it’s easy to lose sight of that if they’re on a good team and play a big role.

That’s especially true of Herro, even if it’s a little unfair to someone who’s still only 22 years old. More than most former first-round picks still on their rookie deals, Herro is an eye-of-the-beholder player due to his distinct strengths and weaknesses, some of which have been put under a bigger spotlight because of his team’s success.

Anfernee Simons set the market for emerging young guards this summer with a four-year, $100MM deal as a restricted free agent. That’s probably Herro’s floor for his next contract.

If the Heat believe Herro will continue improving and is worthy of a significant long-term investment, I could see him exceeding RJ Barrett’s deal with the Knicks, which is reportedly worth $107MM guaranteed over four years with unlikely incentives pushing it up to a possible $120MM.

If they want to continue to keep their options open and possibly deal him during the season, the Heat would be wise not to extend Herro to avoid the “poison pill provision,” which would make trading him extremely difficult. Miami would still have the ability to match any offer he might receive as a restricted free agent in 2023.

The risk of not extending him, assuming his agents are open to accepting less than a maximum-salary deal right now, is there’s a non-zero chance he gets a max as a restricted free agent next summer. A four-year maximum contract from a rival team is projected to be worth $142,975,000.

Giving Herro around $30MM a year would lock in an expensive core of Butler, Adebayo, Herro and Kyle Lowry for at least the next two seasons (Lowry is a free agent in 2024). Having said that, extending Herro now could make moving him in the 2023 offseason easier for the Heat in some ways – he’d already be trade-eligible, and his larger contract would make salary-matching for another star less tricky than it is on the end of his rookie deal.

Heat Notes: Herro, Crowder, Mitchell

September 2nd, 2022 at 6:49pm CST by Rory Maher

With Donovan Mitchell heading to Cleveland, the odds of the Heat giving Tyler Herro a rookie scale extension have seemingly increased, according to Barry Jackson and Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald.

As Jackson and Chiang write, the Heat were keeping their options open, but with Kevin Durant agreeing to stick with the Nets, at least for now, and Mitchell off the table, there aren’t any obvious star players to target in a trade.

The reason Herro likely hasn’t received an extension to this point is due to the “poison pill provision,” and our Luke Adams actually used Herro as an example of why extending him would make trading him extremely difficult in our updated glossary entry.

If he theoretically received a four-year, $120MM extension, then Herro’s 2022/23 salary of $5,722,116 would count as the Heat’s outgoing salary figure in a trade, but any team acquiring Herro would have to view his incoming value as $25,144,423 — that’s the annual average of the five years and $125,722,116 he has left when accounting for both his current contract and his (hypothetical) new extension.

The Heat have given extensions to players on rookie contracts in the past, including Bam Adebayo, Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow, Jackson and Chiang note.

Here’s more from Miami:

Jae Crowder remains a possible trade target to upgrade the power forward spot after losing P.J. Tucker in free agency, per Jackson and Chiang, who note Crowder “holds some appeal” to Miami. However, the Suns haven’t indicated they want to move him, and acquiring him would be complicated and require multiple players because the Heat don’t have anyone who is currently trade-eligible to cleanly match Crowder’s $10.18MM expiring salary in a one-for-one deal.
According to John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix (Twitter link), the Heat never made a formal offer for Mitchell. It’s worth noting that Gambadoro was the first to report that the Cavaliers, who ultimately acquired Mitchell, were pursuing him, so he seemed to have pretty good connections on the situation.
Meeting Utah’s high asking price for Mitchell reeks of a team “desperate to be relevant,” argues Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun-Sentinel, who says the Heat didn’t need to acquire the star guard because they’re already relevant. According to Winderman, Durant was worthy of pushing all the chips in the center for because he’s a “generational talent,” but that isn’t the case for Mitchell.

Heat Notes: Mitchell, Potter, Eastern Conference, Lineups

August 28th, 2022 at 3:26pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

With Nets forward Kevin Durant off the table as a trade target for the time being, the Heat could look elsewhere for All-Star reinforcements. In a mailbag, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel discusses alternatives, including Jazz All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell. Winderman does not consider the undersized shooting guard to be worth a package centered around reigning Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro and future draft picks.

Winderman also notes that the Heat should be cautious when it comes to trading forward Duncan Robinson, who will earn $16.9MM in 2022/23 after falling out of the club’s rotation near the end of last season due to his defensive shortcomings. Winderman notes that Robinson’s contract could be crucial as an inclusion for a trade to acquire a maximum-salaried superstar. Herro remains on his rookie deal, and will make just $5.7MM this season.

There’s more out of South Beach:

In another mailbag, Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reflects on the recent decision by the Heat’s NBAGL affiliate, the Sioux Falls Skyforce, to offload Micah Potter to the Pistons’ G League club, the Motor City Cruise. Winderman writes that the decision ultimately came down to which players Miami is prioritizing developing, noting that other prospects – including Orlando Robinson – took priority over Potter.
Now that the Nets are, at least for now, stabilizing and whole heading into the 2022/23 season, Winderman wonders if Brooklyn has leapfrogged Miami in the Eastern Conference pecking order and explores just how dangerous the Nets coul dbe.
Even beyond the departure of starting power forward P.J. Tucker, the Heat’s rotation could look markedly different than it did during the 2021/22 NBA season, when a top-seeded Miami club pushed the Celtics to seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals, Winderman writes in another Sun Sentinel story. As Winderman observes, 6’5″ Caleb Martin appears to be the current leader in the competition to become Miami’s new starting power forward, though that situation remains fluid with training camp still ahead of the team. Miami’s internal search for its starting swingman next to point guard Kyle Lowry and small forward/shooting guard Jimmy Butler also remains fairly open, with several intriguing candidates on the roster.

Eastern Notes: Tatum, Herro, Oubre, Thibodeau, Brunson

August 21st, 2022 at 7:09pm CST by JD Shaw

Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum played with a small non-displaced fracture in his left wrist this past season, he revealed in an interview with Taylor Rooks of Bleacher Report. Tatum suffered the injury on February 13 against the Hawks.

In May, Tatum revealed he was dealing with wrist pain after being fouled by Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he wouldn’t go into more detail. He received a cortisone shot for the pain and continued playing.

Tatum sounded optimistic that the wrist won’t be an issue going forward, as he’s no longer dealing with pain. The 24-year-old led Boston to its first NBA Finals berth since 2010 this season, averaging 25.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.2 assists in the playoffs.

Here are some other notes from the Eastern Conference:

Heat guard Tyler Herro unsurprisingly wants the team to run it back with the same group this season, as relayed by Betr (Twitter link). This would require that the team doesn’t acquire Kevin Durant or Donovan Mitchell, both of whom would likely require Herro to be traded. Miami suffered a significant blow when P.J. Tucker signed with the Sixers in free agency, but otherwise looks very similar to last season’s team.
Hornets forward Kelly Oubre Jr. should be monitored as a potential trade piece this season, an NBA executive told Sean Deveney of Heavy.com. Oubre, 26, averaged 15.0 points on 44% shooting last season. If the Hornets look to improve their center position, it’s possible he could be included in a deal.
Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau is “ecstatic” about the arrival of Jalen Brunson this season, Marc Berman of the New York Post writes. Thibodeau believes he can turn Brunson from a B-minus player to a B-plus one, a source tells Berman, which would largely start on the defensive end. Brunson signed a four-year, $104MM deal to join the Knicks this offseason.

Heat Notes: Schedule, Butler, Herro

August 18th, 2022 at 8:00am CST by Luke Adams

If the Heat needed any extra motivation heading into the 2022/23 season, the NBA’s newly released TV schedule should provide some, Ira Winderman writes for The Sun Sentinel.

As Winderman outlines, despite making it to within one game of the NBA Finals last season, Miami will make just 11 appearances on TNT, ESPN, and ABC in ’22/23. By comparison, the Lakers, who missed the play-in tournament, will have 27 such games; the Sixers, whom the Heat defeated in the second round of the postseason, will have 23.

The Heat are also the only one of the NBA’s eight teams that made the conference semifinals last season that won’t be in action on Christmas Day, Winderman observes within his breakdown of the club’s schedule.

Here’s more out of Miami:

Could Jimmy Butler emerge as the Heat’s go-to option at power forward following the free agent departure of P.J. Tucker? Winderman explores that subject in a Sun Sentinel mailbag, noting that it could work in certain matchups and would help unlock the team’s perimeter potential, as long as Butler is comfortable with it.
While things could change between now and the October 17 deadline, the Heat are showing no urgency at this point to get a rookie scale extension done with Tyler Herro, Winderman says in another Sun Sentinel article. As we explained on Wednesday, extending Herro would activate the “poison pill provision,” which would make it extremely difficult to trade him during the 2022/23 league year. As Winderman writes, not extending Herro this offseason would leave in-season trade options open and would put the Heat in position to re-sign him as a restricted free agent next summer if he remains on the roster.
Be sure to check out our Miami Heat page for all the latest updates on the team, including Udonis Haslem continuing to weigh his decision for 2022/23 and the Heat and Spurs being scheduled to play a game in Mexico City in December.

Tyler Herro Unfazed By Rumors, Unsure Regarding Extension

August 16th, 2022 at 7:02pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Heat guard Tyler Herro shrugged off questions Tuesday about potentially being traded, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald writes.

Herro was making an appearance for his foundation in Miami. His name has popped up prominently as the potential centerpiece of a Heat trade package for a star like Kevin Durant or Donovan Mitchell.

“I mean ever since I’ve been here, my name has been in rumors. So rumors, they don’t bother me,” he said. “Whether I’m on the Heat or somewhere else, I’m getting ready for the season.”

Herro’s future with the franchise is cloudy, even if he’s still on the roster when training camp opens. He’s eligible for a rookie scale extension prior to opening night.

Miami could offer him a max five-year deal worth up to a projected $193MM or a four-year deal worth less than the max. If he signs an extension, it will be more difficult for the team to trade the reigning Sixth Man of the Year. Herro professed ignorance regarding the state of any negotiations.

“I mean, I know as much as you know,” he said. “I’m just waiting on my turn and we’ll see what happens. There’s a deadline, but I’m going to let my agent take care of that and see what happens.”

If Herro winds up elsewhere, he vows to remains productive.

“Like I said, whatever team I’m on, I’m ready to play,” he said.

Southeast Notes: Oladipo, Durant, Wagner, Maker

August 10th, 2022 at 6:51pm CST by Dana Gauruder

Victor Oladipo, who re-signed with the Heat this summer on a two-year deal worth approximately $18MM, has only appeared in 12 regular season games since he was acquired from Houston at the 2021 trade deadline, but he’s ready to return to top form, he told Vince Carter on the VC podcast (hat tip to Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald).

He’s calling it his “Revenge Tour.”

“When I say revenge, I’m taking about God’s revenge,” Oladipo said. “They messed up my surgery, I sat back. I tore my quad, I sat back. But now it’s my time to rise, I truly believe that. So that’s the revenge tour. That’s what it’s all about. It’s one day at a time, it’s a constant grind every day. That’s what I’m focused on doing.”

We have more from the Southeast Division:

Kevin Durant‘s ultimatum to the Nets could be a potential boost for the Heat in trade talks, Chiang speculates. Brooklyn might decide to lower its asking price before having the awkward situation drags into training camp. The Heat have been unwilling to part with center Bam Adebayo or Jimmy Butler in a Durant deal. Adebayo is not currently eligible to be included in a Durant trade unless the Nets also trade Ben Simmons to the Heat or another team due to the Designated Rookie Extension rule. Miami’s current trade package would be highlighted by Tyler Herro.
Magic big man Moritz Wagner won’t play for Germany in the World Cup qualifiers or FIBA EuroBasket 2022 due to an ankle injury, according to Eurohoops.net. The severity of the ankle injury wasn’t revealed but Wagner expressed disappointment that he won’t be able to participate. “The fact that my ankle isn’t healed is difficult to accept at first, but it’s part of the game,” he said in a statement released by the German federation. “This team is special and I’m looking forward to watching the boys play and supporting them.”
The plan for Makur Maker is to play with the Wizards’ G League affiliate, the Capital City Go-Go, during the upcoming season, Ava Wallace of the Washington Post. Maker was signed to an Exhibit 10 contract on Wednesday. The contract will allow Maker to receive a bonus worth up to $50K if he’s waived during the preseason and then spends at least 60 days as an affiliate player.

Southeast Notes: Wizards, Surenkamp, Herro

August 9th, 2022 at 3:47pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

The Wizards were among the worst three-point shooting clubs in the NBA in 2021/22, ranking dead last in attempts, 26th in makes, and 23rd in conversion rate. Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington examines to what extent the team may have addressed its long-range woes via its summer personnel moves, and how reasonable it is to expect incumbent players to boost their output going forward.

New additions Monte Morris and Will Barton are both solid three-point shooters on volume. Hughes speculates that development from young former lottery selections Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija could help the Wizards in 2022/23. Second-year small forward Corey Kispert nailed 38.6% of his long-range looks following the All-Star break last season following a slow start. Should that trend continue, the 6’7″ wing could help improve Washington’s collective triple tally.

Hughes notes that star shooting guard Bradley Beal slumped during an injury-plagued season last year, connecting on a career-low 30% of his 5.3 attempts from deep. Across 51 games split between the Mavericks and Wizards, sharpshooting center Kristaps Porzingis also had a career-worst three-point conversion rate of 31%. If either former All-Star can inch closer to his prior three-point level, the team would benefit.

There’s more out of the Southeast Division:

The Hornets have a familiar face – Jordan Surenkamp – sticking around for a second season as the head coach for their NBA G League affiliate, the Greensboro Swarm, per Rod Boone of the Charlotte Observer. “From an organizational standpoint, I’m very clear understanding the goals that the organization has for Greensboro,” Surenkamp said. “I’ve developed really strong relationships with the front office even going back to my days as video coordinator. So the lines of communication, clarity, all of that is there.”
Assuming the Heat are unwilling to part with All-Defensive center Bam Adebayo, 2022 Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro could be the most appealing piece the team considers movable, writes Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. All-Stars Kevin Durant and Donovan Mitchell, plus big men like Myles Turner, John Collins, Harrison Barnes and Jae Crowder, are still among Miami’s potential trade targets.
In case you missed it, JD Shaw discussed the Heat‘s 2022/23 season prospects in a recent Community Shootaround.

Heat Notes: Adebayo, Tampering Penalty, Herro

July 30th, 2022 at 5:24pm CST by Arthur Hill

Heat center Bam Adebayo is hoping for a career path similar to teammate Udonis Haslem‘s, writes Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald. Speaking today at his youth basketball camp, Adebayo said he not only wants to play his entire career in Miami, he hopes to be a community leader in South Florida just as Haslem has been.

“If I could, I would,” Adebayo said of the prospect of playing for just one team. “Just to have that opportunity to be around this community for my whole career. A lot of the community has seen me grown up. Going from a random 14th draft pick to being a cornerstone in this organization and to become something bigger. It’s just one of those things that’s dope when people grow with you.”

That decision isn’t entirely in Adebayo’s hands, and teams have inquired about him as Miami seeks to add another star on the trade market. The Nets would be interested in Adebayo as part of a Kevin Durant deal, but multiple sources told Chiang that Miami hasn’t included him in any of its offers and isn’t willing to part with him to get Durant.

“It’s the faith they got in me,” Adebayo said. “I feel like they know what they have. You get a guy who’s hard-nosed, who’s going to get it out the mud, who’s not going to quit on his teammates. It’s just mutual respect. I feel like a lot of teams want me, but it’s just a respect thing. Also, it’s (team president) Pat (Riley) believing in me, it’s (owner) Micky (Arison) believing in me, it’s (general manager) Andy (Elisburg) believing in me that we can make that next step to bring this city another championship.”

There’s more from Miami:

Adebayo may push for a larger role in the offense when training camp opens in September, suggests Ira Winderman of The Sun-Sentinel. While the Heat could benefit from more consistent scoring out of their starting center, Winderman notes that Jimmy Butler will still carry a large share of the offense and plenty of shots have to be allocated for the team’s three-point specialists.
In a separate story, Winderman wonders whether the tampering penalty assessed against the Heat last year — loss of a second-round draft pick — will also be directed at the Sixers, who are currently under investigation, and the Knicks, who may be investigated as well.
The Heat front office should remain patient unless there’s an immediate chance to add a star such as Durant or Donovan Mitchell, contends Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. Jackson explains that means holding onto first-round draft picks and not extending Tyler Herro‘s contract this offseason.