Trail Blazers Rumors

Northwest Notes: Conley, Gobert, Malone, Trail Blazers

Mike Conley turned in a vintage performance Saturday night in his first road playoff game at Memphis, writes Nick Friedell of ESPN. The veteran point guard made it a memorable homecoming with 27 points, eight assists and six rebounds as the Jazz pulled out a Game 3 victory.

Conley spent 12 years with the Grizzlies and was a fan favorite before being traded to Utah in 2019. This first-round series has him battling with second-year guard Ja Morant, who has become the new face of the franchise.

“It’s amazing to be playing against a guy like Ja, first off,” Conley said. “Just seeing a guy that’s so talented, he’s a young superstar in the league, wearing the jersey that I’m so used to wearing. Getting the cheers from the crowd that I’m so used to hearing. It’s surreal. It’s like full circle. You never thought that it would be this way. I never did, at least. It’s like sometimes you live long enough to become the villain, and I’ve become that for the Memphis Grizzlies now.”

There’s more from the Northwest Division:

  • Rudy Gobert was thinking of Mark Eaton after Saturday’s win, according to Sarah Todd of The Deseret News. Eaton, a former Jazz center and shot-blocking specialist, died Friday at age 64. “I know that if he was here I would have got a text after the game saying, ‘Way to protect the paint, big guy,’” Gobert said.
  • Nuggets coach Michael Malone called out his team — and especially his starters — after a lopsided loss to Portland in Saturday’s Game 4, writes Royce Young of ESPN. With a chance to go up 3-1 in the series, Denver came out flat and never seriously challenged the Trail Blazers. The Nuggets’ starting unit was outscored 49-26 when it was on the floor and shot 30% from the field while Portland was making 65% of its shots. “Our starters were awful,” Malone said. “I thought we had some guys that were tentative, that looked a little scared, who played soft … we’re going to have to be a lot better going home.” He later added, “I can’t believe we’re actually talking about playing hard in a playoff game. That should be a given.”
  • With the Trail Blazers’ season hanging in the balance, Jusuf Nurkic and Norman Powell both came into Saturday’s game with something to prove, according to Jason Quick of The Athletic. Nurkic was upset over disparaging comments about his defense, while Powell wanted to show he could be the difference maker Portland expected when it acquired him at the trade deadline.

2021 NBA Draft Tiebreaker Results

The NBA conducted a series of random tiebreakers today to determine the lottery standings and the 2021 draft order. These tiebreakers involved teams that finished the regular season with identical records.

The results are as follows, per Jeremy Woo of SI.com (Twitter link):

  • Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 4) over Cleveland Cavaliers (No. 5)
  • Chicago Bulls (No. 8) over Sacramento Kings (No. 9) over New Orleans Pelicans (No. 10)
    • Note: The Magic will receive the Bulls’ first-round pick if it doesn’t move up into the top four.
  • Charlotte Hornets (No. 11) over San Antonio Spurs (No. 12)
  • New York Knicks (No. 19) over Atlanta Hawks (No. 20)
  • New York Knicks (No. 21) over Los Angeles Lakers (No. 22) over Houston Rockets (No. 23)
    • Note: The Knicks’ pick is courtesy of the Mavericks, while the Rockets’ pick is courtesy of the Trail Blazers.
  • Los Angeles Clippers (No. 25) over Denver Nuggets (No. 26).

Lottery teams that finished tied in the regular standings are granted essentially identical odds to move up into the top four. For instance, the Thunder and Cavaliers will each have an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, while the Bulls, Kings, and Pelicans will have matching 4.5% odds at the top selection.

However, the tiebreaker is still important for lottery teams because it dictates which team(s) will draft first in the event that neither club moves into the top four. For example, the Cavs could theoretically slip as far as No. 9 in the draft now, while the Thunder couldn’t fall below No. 8.

Outside of the lottery, the tiebreaker results simply determine the draft order. That order is subsequently reversed in the second round. For instance, the Clippers and Nuggets will pick at Nos. 25 and 26, respectively in the first round, but in round two, Denver’s pick (traded to the Thunder) will be No. 55, while the Clippers’ pick (traded to Charlotte) will be No. 56.

The Thunder and Knicks are among the big tiebreaker winners. Oklahoma City’s odds of securing a top-six pick improved by virtue of its tiebreaker win over Cleveland. As for the Knicks, they could’ve ended up with the 20th and 23rd overall picks, but will instead draft at 19 and 21.

The Magic are an under-the-radar winner as well, since they hold Chicago’s first-round pick (top-four protected). The Bulls’ tiebreaker win didn’t affect the team’s odds of moving into the top four, but it substantially increased the odds that Orlando will end up with a pick at No. 8 or 9 instead of 10 or lower.

Community Shootaround: Western Conference First-Round Series

In both 2019 and 2020, the top four seeds in the Western Conference advanced to the second round of the playoffs. However, things are looking a whole lot more wide open early in the first round of the 2021 postseason.

Over the weekend, three of the four lower-seeded teams in the Western Conference playoff matchups won Game 1. The one lower seed that didn’t come away with a win? The No. 7 Lakers, who were favored by oddsmakers over the No. 2 Suns coming into the series.

Despite their seventh seed, the defending-champion Lakers have been widely viewed as one of the favorites to come out of the West now that they’re healthy again, with LeBron James and Anthony Davis back in the lineup. But L.A.’s two leading scorers combined for just 31 points on 11-of-29 shooting in Game 1 against a tough Phoenix team that led almost all night despite a subpar performance from veteran leader Chris Paul.

Later on Sunday, the No. 8 Grizzlies pulled out an upset victory over the No. 1 Jazz, taking advantage of Donovan Mitchell‘s absence and Rudy Gobert‘s foul trouble (he played just 25 minutes before fouling out), as Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks racked up a combined 57 points and helped Memphis hold off a late push from Utah.

On Saturday, the fifth-seeded Mavericks and sixth-seeded Trail Blazers knocked off the Clippers and Nuggets, respectively. A pair of All-NBA guards played key roles in those victories — Luka Doncic scored a game-high 31 points and was a game-best plus-19 in Los Angeles, while Damian Lillard pulled off a similar feat in Denver (34 points, plus-25).

It’s not uncommon for an underdog to win the first game of a series and fail to take advantage of that momentum. In fact, each of the last two NBA champions (the Lakers in 2020 and the Raptors in 2019) lost the first game of their respective first-round series, then won the next four en route to a deep playoff run.

To that point, the oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag still consider the Jazz and Clippers favorites over the Grizzlies and Mavericks, and give the Lakers near-even odds to win their first-round series over the Suns. Confidence in the Nuggets is dwindling though — the Trail Blazers have been made solid favorites in that series.

We want to know what you think. Will multiple lower-seeded teams win their first-round matchups? Which four Western Conference teams do you expect to see in the second round?

Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts and predictions!

Trail Blazers Notes: McCollum, Stotts, Lillard, Nurkic

Trail Blazers players won’t be thinking about saving coach Terry Stotts‘ job when they open their playoff series with the Nuggets tonight, CJ McCollum tells Jason Quick of The Athletic. Stotts is rumored to be among a handful of coaches who are in jeopardy if they suffer an early exit in the postseason. He has one year left on his current contract with a salary of more than $6MM.

McCollum made it clear that the players support Stotts, but there are other motivating factors.

“You have no control over those things,” he said. “I like Terry. Terry has been great for me, my career, my development, he’s given me a chance. I will forever be grateful for everything he has done for me. But your job as a player is to play. And his job as a coach is to coach. Like, you can’t worry about what could happen. That’s every year. Every year, I could be traded. Every year, a coach could lose his job. There is enough pressure to perform on its own.

“…  I don’t need any extra motivation to help Terry keep his job. I’m gonna go hoop and do what I do no matter what. And I think that’s Terry’s mentality. If something happens, Terry is OK. He’s gonna be all right, and he’s probably going to get another head coaching job.”

There’s more Trail Blazers news to pass along:

  • Damian Lillard discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic affected him and players in general in an in-depth interview with Sam Amick of The Athletic. He also addresses a recent column by Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports calling for Portland to add more top-level talent during Lillard’s prime years. “People love to hear, ‘Oh, this guy might want out of here or out of there.’ I’ve constantly mentioned what my commitment to Portland is,” Lillard said. “I don’t think I need to keep going in on that. But over the course of a season, everybody gets frustrated, you know? And I’m not a person who fakes it for nobody. Not the media. Not my teammates. Not the fans. Not for nobody.”
  • The 2017 trade that sent Jusuf Nurkic from Denver to Portland helped the Nuggets and Blazers both improve, writes Kyle Fredrickson of The Denver Post. Portland needed an upgrade at center, and Nurkic had just lost his starting job to Nikola Jokic.
  • Zach Collins is the only player listed on the Trail Blazers’ injury report as the playoffs begin. Collins hasn’t played all season after undergoing surgery to fix a stress fracture in his ankle, but a recent story by Quick said the big man hasn’t given up hope of returning if Portland makes a long playoff run.

Northwest Notes: Lillard, Deck, Mitchell, SGA

Trail Blazers All-Star point guard Damian Lillard still hopes to eventually lead the team that drafted him to a title, writes Jason Quick of The Athletic. In an interesting bit of trivia, Quick says that Lillard has gone above and beyond in researching what it takes to do this. He has spoken with championship-winning players (including his new teammate Norman Powell, who won with the Raptors in 2019) and coaches with the goal of integrating their wisdom into his title quest.

“I want that more than anything,” Lillard said of winning a title for the Trail Blazers. “Not just to say I won a championship. But I want to do it in this city. I want to have a parade on Broadway and ride past El Gaucho (steakhouse). That’s what I think of. Every time the playoffs [are] starting, I’m going into it like, ‘Is this going to be the year that we shock the world or that we come up big?’

“I mean, I see every year when we get to this point as pivotal,” Lillard told Quick. “Because at every point, it’s an evaluation: Where do we go from here? Like, can we get the job done as we are? And if not, where do we go from here? What is the change that needs to be made? And I don’t know where that change comes from, you know, maybe we … I don’t know if it’s moving players, I don’t know if it’s a coaching change … whatever it is that happens in the NBA, the changes that are made when you look at the postseason and what you consider success and failure, and things like that, and what changes you have to make to improve or give yourself a better chance.”

There’s more out of the Northwest Division:

  • Recently-added Thunder rookie power forward Gabriel Deck hopes to represent Team Argentina in this summer’s rescheduled Olympics, but will remain in Oklahoma City for the next few weeks, tweets Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman.
  • The top-seeded Jazz will face the Western Conference’s yet-to-be-determined eighth seed when they begin their postseason this weekend, but the health of All-Star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell remains in question, writes Eric Walden of the Salt Lake Tribune. Mitchell has been unable to play through a full team practice since spraining his ankle in a 119-111 defeat of the Pacers on April 16. “Whenever he’s healthy, we’ll have him back,” Mitchell’s teammate Joe Ingles said, delivering an expert non-answer.
  • As Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to recover from a foot injury, he is holding out hope that he will be healthy enough to suit up for the Canadian national team in this summer’s Olympic qualifiers, tweets Joe Mussatto of the Oklahoman.

Free Agency Rumors: Holmes, Hardaway, Powell, More

Kings center Richaun Holmes is expected to be a sought-after free agent this offseason, according to Jake Fischer of Bleacher Report, who spoke to a number of league personnel members about the 2021 FA class. Fischer’s sources suggested that a four-year, $80MM deal wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for Holmes.

“I think everyone’s going to be chasing him,” one team analytics staffer told Bleacher Report.

The Kings figure to make an effort to re-sign Holmes. General manager Monte McNair referred to the big man today as “an integral part of the team,” as James Ham of NBC Sports California tweets. And Ham himself made the case that retaining Holmes should be Sacramento’s top priority.

However, since the Kings only have Holmes’ Early Bird rights and don’t project to have a huge chunk of cap room, their ability to make a competitive offer may be limited if his price gets anywhere near as high as Fischer’s sources believed it could. The Hornets and Mavericks are among the other teams expected to have interest in Holmes, according to Fischer.

Here’s more from Fischer:

  • One personnel evaluator who spoke to Bleacher Report referred to Mavericks wing Tim Hardaway Jr. as “one of the best pure scorers in the league,” and won’t be surprised if he receives another lucrative multiyear deal now that his four-year, $71MM contract is set to expire.
  • That same personnel evaluator said he believes Trail Blazers guard Norman Powell can get $20MM annually in free agency, according to Fischer. “He’s just a guy that can play with anybody,” the evaluator said of Powell. “He doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective. He’s a good defender, he’s a great athlete, he gets to the rim. You can play him at the three, you can play him at the two. He’s a great character guy.”
  • Multiple league executives believe that Lakers guard Dennis Schröder is aiming to be paid like a top-tier point guard and that he’ll be prioritizing a starting role. The Knicks are among the teams mulling a run at him, sources tell Fischer.
  • League executives who spoke to Fischer identified Nets guard Bruce Brown, Knicks big man Nerlens Noel, and Lakers teammates Alex Caruso and Talen Horton-Tucker as some other under-the-radar free agents who could be in line for eight-digit annual salaries on their new deals.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Northwest Division

Throughout the season, Hoops Rumors takes a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this off-season. We examine if their stock is rising or falling due to performance and other factors. This week, we take a look at players from the Northwest Division:

Norman Powell, Trail Blazers, 27, SG/SF (Up) – Signed to a four-year, $42MM deal in 2018

Powell was a popular name at the trade deadline as numerous teams pursued the high-scoring wing. Portland won the sweepstakes by giving up a solid young player in Gary Trent Jr., as well as Rodney Hood. Powell has an $11.6MM option on his contract for next season but he’s widely expected to decline it. He’ll be popular once again after the season, this time as an unrestricted free agent. He has struggled somewhat with his 3-point shooting since Toronto traded him but he’s still averaging 17.2 PPG with the Trail Blazers. His price tag will rise even more if he excels in the postseason.

Georges Niang, Jazz, 27, SF/PF (Up) – Signed to a three-year, $5MM deal in 2018

The Jazz don’t ask Niang to score a whole lot – he’s mainly limited to a few 3-point opportunities per game – but he does all the little things necessary to retain a rotation spot on a team with the league’s best record. He’s appeared in every game this season, averaging 15.9 MPG. With several key teammates sidelined lately, Niang has stepped up his offensive production, scoring in the double-digits in eight of the last 12 games. An unrestricted free agent, Niang seems like a nice fit in Utah, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he stays put. If not, he’ll be valued as a reliable second-unit player.

Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Thunder, 23, SG (Down) – Signed to a three-year, $4.6MM deal in 2018

Mykhailiuk had a golden opportunity to post some big numbers on a tanking team when the Pistons traded him to the Thunder. It would be unfair to say Mykhailiuk has flopped but he hasn’t really built up his value. He’s continued to struggle with his 3-point shot (32.2%), though he’s shown more willingness to drive to the basket and collected some steals on the defensive end. His qualifying offer is only $2MM, so there’s incentive for Oklahoma City to make him a restricted free agent. But Mykhailiuk probably won’t get an offer sheet, so he’ll either have to sign the QO or work out a contract with the Thunder.

Austin Rivers, Nuggets, 28, SG (Up) – Signed to a one-year, $270K deal in 2021

Rivers basically found himself in exile in New York this season. Unable to crack Tom Thibodeau’s rotation, Rivers wound up being a throw-in at the trade deadline, then was promptly waived by Oklahoma City. Jamal Murray’s season-ending injury led to Denver offering him a 10-day contract and Rivers soon earned a rest-of-the-season deal. With Will Barton also sidelined by a hamstring injury, Rivers not only finds himself in the rotation but also in the starting lineup. He’s averaging 15.2 PPG over the last five games while draining 19 of 36 3-pointers. The postseason will give Rivers even more chances to attract interest in the free agent market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Potential 2021 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:

  • A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
  • A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the last two NBA seasons. The 41-start and 2,000-minute thresholds are prorated and are based on the pre-bubble games in 2019/20 and a 72-game schedule in 2020/21.

In other words, if a player’s team played 64 games prior to the summer restart last season, he’d need to compile 68 starts across the two seasons (half of 136 games) to meet the criteria. This proration applies to a player’s minutes total as well.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Last offseason, for instance, Denzel Valentine failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,642,800. The Bulls decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it.

Had he met the starter criteria and been eligible for a slightly larger QO, Valentine’s free agency could have played out differently, as Kris Dunn‘s did — Dunn met the starter criteria, increasing the value of his QO, and Chicago opted not to give him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent.


Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,031,451.

Half of the players selected in the top 14 of the 2017 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2020, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason. Of the other seven, the four players listed above failed to meet the criteria.

Even with the lower qualifying offers, some of these players – including Ntilikina and Smith – may not receive QOs at all, making them unrestricted free agents.

Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) and Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) each met the starter criteria, securing potential QOs of $14.36MM and $9.03MM, respectively. Josh Jackson was the only top-14 pick from ’17 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — since he’s on a new contract now, the starter criteria doesn’t apply to him.


First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

A pair of players fall into this group this season, and will now be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $7,705,447.

As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Collins’ qualifying offer will increase from $5,899,793, while Allen’s get a bump from $5,661,538. It’s unlikely to matter a whole lot for either player though, since they’re both strong candidates to sign lucrative long-term deals and almost certainly won’t give any real consideration to accepting their respective QOs.

Pelicans wing Josh Hart, the 30th overall pick in 2017, was the strongest candidate to join Collins and Allen in this group, but will fall short of meeting the criteria due in large part to the thumb injury that has sidelined him since April 1. If Hart had played the Pelicans’ last 19 games and maintained his minutes per game average for the season (28.7 MPG), he would’ve passed the required minutes threshold by now.


Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,736,102.

Brown, Graham, Nunn, Robinson, and Trent are all on minimum-salary contracts and would’ve had very modest QOs (in the $2MM range) if they hadn’t met the starter criteria. Even after the bump to $4.74MM though, most or all of them will end up signing more lucrative contracts.

Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, two who came close to meeting the starter criteria are Isaac Bonga (Wizards) and Jarred Vanderbilt (Timberwolves).

After starting 41 games of 64 pre-bubble games a year ago, Bonga needed to make 27 starts this season, but has only started eight games for Washington to date. As for Vanderbilt, he needed 36 starts in 2020/21 to bump the value of his QO — he recorded his 25th start on March 26, but hasn’t been in Minnesota’s starting five since then.

Bonga, Vanderbilt, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trail Blazers Notes: Moda Center, Powell, Billups

One of the last teams to reopen their doors to fans this season, the Trail Blazers announced on Wednesday in a press release that they’ll welcome back a limited number of fans to Moda Center in Portland as of Friday, May 7.

The Blazers will only fill the arena to 10 percent capacity, but the timing of the reopening couldn’t be better — Portland will host the Lakers on Friday night in what will be a crucial game in the race to avoid the play-in tournament in the Western Conference. The Lakers will be on the second night of a back-to-back and are expected to be missing LeBron James, so the Blazers will have a great opportunity to pick up a game in the standings and secure the tiebreaker over L.A.

Here’s more on the Blazers:

  • Blazers swingman Norman Powell, who is dealing with right knee patellar tendinopathy, missed Wednesday’s game vs. Cleveland, as Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports notes (via Twitter). While Powell’s knee would probably benefit from rest, he’ll likely want to get back on the court for Friday’s showdown vs. the Lakers.
  • Following a brutal stretch of nine losses in 11 games, Portland bounced back with a 5-1 record on its just-completed six-game road trip. Jason Quick of The Athletic contends that the team is finding its identity at the right time and has benefited from shortening its rotation.
  • In case you missed it, a report from The Athletic on Wednesday indicated that Blazers head coach Terry Stotts will be in serious danger of losing his job at season’s end unless he can “pull a rabbit out of his hat” and lead the club to a deep postseason run. Jason Kidd, Chauncey Billups, and others were cited by The Athletic as possible candidates to replace Stotts, with Mitch Lawrence of SiriusXM NBA Radio (Twitter link) also reporting that Billups is prepared to “throw his hat in the ring” if the job becomes available.

Kidd, Joerger, Billups Would Be Among Candidates To Replace Stotts

  • The Trail Blazers are increasingly likely to part ways with head coach Terry Stotts this offseason unless he can “pull a rabbit out of his hat” and make a deep playoff run, according to Charania and Amick. Sources tell The Athletic that Stotts has less player support this season than he has in past years. Charania and Amick identify Jason Kidd, Dave Joerger, Chauncey Billups, Brent Barry, and – if he becomes available – Nate McMillan as potential targets for Portland if the team makes a change.

    [SOURCE LINK]
  • The Trail Blazers are increasingly likely to part ways with head coach Terry Stotts this offseason unless he can “pull a rabbit out of his hat” and make a deep playoff run, according to Charania and Amick. Sources tell The Athletic that Stotts has less player support this season than he has in past years. Charania and Amick identify Jason Kidd, Dave Joerger, Chauncey Billups, Brent Barry, and – if he becomes available – Nate McMillan as potential targets for Portland if the team makes a change.