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Potential 2021 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

May 7th, 2021 at 10:52am CST by Luke Adams

The NBA’s rookie scale, which determines how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”

Here’s how the starter criteria works in a typical year:

A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games one year and 32 the next, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.

The thresholds for the starter criteria this year are a little different due to the truncated nature of the last two NBA seasons. The 41-start and 2,000-minute thresholds are prorated and are based on the pre-bubble games in 2019/20 and a 72-game schedule in 2020/21.

In other words, if a player’s team played 64 games prior to the summer restart last season, he’d need to compile 68 starts across the two seasons (half of 136 games) to meet the criteria. This proration applies to a player’s minutes total as well.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.

Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though.

Last offseason, for instance, Denzel Valentine failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of his qualifying offer to $4,642,800. The Bulls decided to issue that qualifying offer and he accepted it.

Had he met the starter criteria and been eligible for a slightly larger QO, Valentine’s free agency could have played out differently, as Kris Dunn‘s did — Dunn met the starter criteria, increasing the value of his QO, and Chicago opted not to give him a QO, making him an unrestricted free agent.

Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:

With all that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $7,031,451.

Frank Ntilikina (Knicks)
Dennis Smith Jr. (Pistons)
Zach Collins (Trail Blazers)
Malik Monk (Hornets)

Half of the players selected in the top 14 of the 2017 draft signed rookie scale extensions in 2020, meaning they won’t have to worry about the value of their qualifying offers this offseason. Of the other seven, the four players listed above failed to meet the criteria.

Even with the lower qualifying offers, some of these players – including Ntilikina and Smith – may not receive QOs at all, making them unrestricted free agents.

Lonzo Ball (Pelicans) and Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) each met the starter criteria, securing potential QOs of $14.36MM and $9.03MM, respectively. Josh Jackson was the only top-14 pick from ’17 who was waived before completing his rookie contract — since he’s on a new contract now, the starter criteria doesn’t apply to him.

First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:

A pair of players fall into this group this season, and will now be eligible for a qualifying offer worth $7,705,447.

John Collins (Hawks)
Jarrett Allen (Cavaliers)

As a result of meeting the starter criteria, Collins’ qualifying offer will increase from $5,899,793, while Allen’s get a bump from $5,661,538. It’s unlikely to matter a whole lot for either player though, since they’re both strong candidates to sign lucrative long-term deals and almost certainly won’t give any real consideration to accepting their respective QOs.

Pelicans wing Josh Hart, the 30th overall pick in 2017, was the strongest candidate to join Collins and Allen in this group, but will fall short of meeting the criteria due in large part to the thumb injury that has sidelined him since April 1. If Hart had played the Pelicans’ last 19 games and maintained his minutes per game average for the season (28.7 MPG), he would’ve passed the required minutes threshold by now.

Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:

The players listed below signed as second-round picks or undrafted free agents, but have met the starter criteria and are now eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,736,102.

Bruce Brown (Nets)
Devonte’ Graham (Hornets)
Kendrick Nunn (Heat)
Duncan Robinson (Heat)
Gary Trent Jr. (Raptors)

Brown, Graham, Nunn, Robinson, and Trent are all on minimum-salary contracts and would’ve had very modest QOs (in the $2MM range) if they hadn’t met the starter criteria. Even after the bump to $4.74MM though, most or all of them will end up signing more lucrative contracts.

Among other second-round picks and undrafted free agents, two who came close to meeting the starter criteria are Isaac Bonga (Wizards) and Jarred Vanderbilt (Timberwolves).

After starting 41 games of 64 pre-bubble games a year ago, Bonga needed to make 27 starts this season, but has only started eight games for Washington to date. As for Vanderbilt, he needed 36 starts in 2020/21 to bump the value of his QO — he recorded his 25th start on March 26, but hasn’t been in Minnesota’s starting five since then.

Bonga, Vanderbilt, and the rest of this year’s restricted free agents, won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trail Blazers Notes: Moda Center, Powell, Billups

May 6th, 2021 at 9:33am CST by Luke Adams

One of the last teams to reopen their doors to fans this season, the Trail Blazers announced on Wednesday in a press release that they’ll welcome back a limited number of fans to Moda Center in Portland as of Friday, May 7.

The Blazers will only fill the arena to 10 percent capacity, but the timing of the reopening couldn’t be better — Portland will host the Lakers on Friday night in what will be a crucial game in the race to avoid the play-in tournament in the Western Conference. The Lakers will be on the second night of a back-to-back and are expected to be missing LeBron James, so the Blazers will have a great opportunity to pick up a game in the standings and secure the tiebreaker over L.A.

Here’s more on the Blazers:

Blazers swingman Norman Powell, who is dealing with right knee patellar tendinopathy, missed Wednesday’s game vs. Cleveland, as Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports notes (via Twitter). While Powell’s knee would probably benefit from rest, he’ll likely want to get back on the court for Friday’s showdown vs. the Lakers.
Following a brutal stretch of nine losses in 11 games, Portland bounced back with a 5-1 record on its just-completed six-game road trip. Jason Quick of The Athletic contends that the team is finding its identity at the right time and has benefited from shortening its rotation.
In case you missed it, a report from The Athletic on Wednesday indicated that Blazers head coach Terry Stotts will be in serious danger of losing his job at season’s end unless he can “pull a rabbit out of his hat” and lead the club to a deep postseason run. Jason Kidd, Chauncey Billups, and others were cited by The Athletic as possible candidates to replace Stotts, with Mitch Lawrence of SiriusXM NBA Radio (Twitter link) also reporting that Billups is prepared to “throw his hat in the ring” if the job becomes available.

Kidd, Joerger, Billups Would Be Among Candidates To Replace Stotts

May 5th, 2021 at 8:23am CST by Luke Adams

The Trail Blazers are increasingly likely to part ways with head coach Terry Stotts this offseason unless he can “pull a rabbit out of his hat” and make a deep playoff run, according to Charania and Amick. Sources tell The Athletic that Stotts has less player support this season than he has in past years. Charania and Amick identify Jason Kidd, Dave Joerger, Chauncey Billups, Brent Barry, and – if he becomes available – Nate McMillan as potential targets for Portland if the team makes a change.

[SOURCE LINK]

The Trail Blazers are increasingly likely to part ways with head coach Terry Stotts this offseason unless he can “pull a rabbit out of his hat” and make a deep playoff run, according to Charania and Amick. Sources tell The Athletic that Stotts has less player support this season than he has in past years. Charania and Amick identify Jason Kidd, Dave Joerger, Chauncey Billups, Brent Barry, and – if he becomes available – Nate McMillan as potential targets for Portland if the team makes a change.

Carmelo Breaks Into Top-10 All-Time Scoring List

May 4th, 2021 at 8:39pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

After scoring 14 points in a 123-114 loss to the Hawks, veteran Trail Blazers forward Carmelo Anthony has cracked the NBA’s all-time top 10 scoring list, writes Casey Holdahl of Trailblazers.com. “Top 10 in anything of all-time is a special moment, so I don’t want to take this moment for granted,” said Anthony. “I don’t want to downplay it, I’m excited about it, I’m blessed to be able to accomplish this in year 18. I think that’s what people should look at, the fact that I’m in my 18th season.” Anthony has been a productive offensive contributor during his second season with Portland. He will be a free agent this summer.

Poll: Lakers, Mavs, Or Blazers In Play-In Tournament?

May 4th, 2021 at 8:00am CST by Luke Adams

The Lakers, Mavericks, and Trail Blazers all consider themselves solid playoff teams and potential contenders, but at least one of them will end up in the Western Conference’s play-in tournament in two weeks. With the Jazz, Suns, Clippers, and Nuggets in total control of the West’s top four seeds, the Lakers, Mavs, and Blazers find themselves vying for the fifth and sixth spots — the No. 7 finisher will host the first play-in game against the No. 8 seed.

After a bad loss at home vs. Toronto on Sunday, the Lakers (37-28) bounced back on Monday, pulling out a tight win over Denver and reclaiming the No. 5 seed for the time being. The Blazers (36-29), on the other hand, dropped into seventh place in the West with a loss in Atlanta, while the Mavs (36-28) had the night off.

With the three teams still separated by a single game, every night the rest of the way will have major postseason implications. Here are their remaining schedules:

Lakers: at LAC, at POR, vs. PHX, vs. NYK, vs. HOU, at IND, at NOP (three back-to-backs)
Mavs: at MIA, vs. BKN, vs. CLE, at CLE, at MEM, vs. NOP, vs. TOR, at MIN (two back-to-backs)
Blazers: at CLE, vs. LAL, vs. SAS, vs. HOU, at UTA, at PHX, vs. DEN (two back-to-backs)

On paper, the Mavericks may have the cleanest path to a top-six seed. After their games against the Heat and Nets this week, they won’t face another team in the top eight of either conference. They also have the advantage of holding the tiebreaker if the three teams finished tied in the standings, since they’ll be the Southwest division winner. If they finish tied with just the Lakers, they’d hold that tiebreaker as well, having gone 2-1 vs. L.A. this season.

The Lakers, currently in control of the No. 5 seed, have a huge week coming up, with games on tap against the Clippers, Blazers, Suns, and Knicks. That contest in Portland, on the second night of a back-to-back, will be particularly important — if the Lakers lose that one, they won’t own the tiebreaker against either the Mavs or the Blazers. Still, if they can at least split their next four games, the Lakers should be in reasonably good shape, as they finish their season against three sub-.500 opponents.

The Blazers, meanwhile, have the opportunity to make a run over the next week, especially if they can beat the Lakers at home. They’ll likely need to win at least three of their next four games to have a decent chance to avoid the play-in, since their season ends with a brutal three-game stretch — in Utah, in Phoenix, and at home vs. Denver. Maybe Portland lucks out and faces a couple of those teams when they’re resting players in advance of the playoffs, but given how close the standings are in the upper half of the West, there’s definitely no guarantee that’ll happen.

What do you think? Which team do you expect to end up with the seventh seed, taking part in the play-in? And do you think that team will be in any danger of losing two consecutive games against the likes of the Warriors, Grizzlies, and Spurs, or should they take care of business relatively quickly?

Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your predictions!

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Check-In On 10-Day Contracts, Open Roster Spots

May 3rd, 2021 at 1:45pm CST by Luke Adams

The 2020/21 NBA regular season will come to an end on May 16. That means that there are just 14 days left in the season, and just four more days left to sign a player to a 10-day contract. As of this Friday (May 7), a 10-day deal would technically cover the remainder of the season.

With the playoffs around the corner, it makes sense that the number of active 10-day contracts around the NBA has been on the decline. The number of league-wide roster openings is also dwindling.

Here are the 10-day contracts that are currently active:

Oklahoma City Thunder: Charlie Brown Jr. (runs through May 4)
Orlando Magic: Ignas Brazdeikis (runs through May 11)
Brooklyn Nets: Mike James (runs through May 12)

Of those three players, Brown is the only one who will technically be eligible to sign another 10-day contract when his current pact expires.

Meanwhile, with players like Austin Rivers, Mfiondu Kabengele, Anthony Tolliver, Yogi Ferrell, and Freddie Gillespie signing rest-of-season contracts within the last several days, more and more teams now have full 15-man rosters and may be done making roster moves this season.

The following teams still have at least one open spot on their 15-man squads:

Golden State Warriors (2)
Miami Heat
Minnesota Timberwolves
New Orleans Pelicans
New York Knicks
Portland Trail Blazers
San Antonio Spurs
Washington Wizards

In addition to these clubs, the Nets, Magic, and Thunder would each have a roster opening if they don’t retain the players on 10-day contracts noted above. The Knicks just opened their 15th roster spot on Sunday night, when Jared Harper‘s 10-day deal expired.

While many of these teams figure to fill their rosters before the regular season ends – either with a developmental prospect or one more veteran for postseason depth – the Warriors are the only club here that must add at least one more player. Teams are only permitted to dip below 14 players on standard contracts for up to two weeks at a time. Since Golden State was carrying Gary Payton II on a 10-day deal up until last Thursday, they’ll have until next Thursday (May 13) to re-add a 14th man.

The following teams also have an open two-way contract slot, which they may or may not fill during the season’s final two weeks:

Minnesota Timberwolves
New York Knicks
Phoenix Suns
Toronto Raptors

Kevin Love: Eventually Playing For Blazers Would Be “Special”

May 3rd, 2021 at 11:44am CST by Luke Adams

During the first half of the 2019/20 season, a report stated that if Cavaliers power forward Kevin Love was traded, he preferred to end up with his hometown Trail Blazers. Portland reportedly offered expiring contracts to Cleveland in exchange for Love, but were unable to complete a deal.

Love – who was born in Southern California and played for UCLA but grew up in Lake Oswego, Oregon – never publicly confirmed that Portland would have been his ideal landing spot. However, with the veteran forward and the Cavs increasingly likely to part ways sometime before his contract expires in 2023, Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports asked Love during the most recent episode of his Posted Up podcast about the possibility of eventually joining the Blazers.

“Who wouldn’t want to play with Dame Lillard, first of all,” Love responded. “Dame, he’s special. He’s amazing. I claim Portland when they ask me where I’m from. It’s where I spent all of my formative years. I grew up in Portland. When people ask where I was born, obviously I say L.A. But Portland is always going to be a special place in my heart.

“Whether it be at the end of my career, whether it be in six months, or whatever it may be, if I was wearing a Portland jersey, that’s special,” Love continued. “That’s playing at home.”

Love still has two years and $60MM+ left on his contract with the Cavaliers, which will make a trade challenging, especially for Portland — if they’re going to take on that sort of money, the Blazers will be targeting an impact player in his prime.

Still, after Love’s latest on-court display of frustration, speculation has increased that the 32-year-old and the Cavs could be headed for a divorce sooner rather than later, even if that means Cleveland negotiating a buyout or accepting pennies on the dollar in a trade. If Portland could sign the former fifth overall pick at a discount once he eventually reaches free agency, the idea of a union between the two sides seems much more viable.

While he figures to be the subject of trade rumors again this offseason, Love is on track to finish the 2020/21 season with the Cavs. He has averaged 11.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per games in 21 contests (23.9 MPG) so far. Those numbers are all well below his career averages, as are his .404 FG% and .349 3PT%.

Lillard Addresses Haynes’ Column: “That’s His Thoughts”

May 1st, 2021 at 5:04pm CST by Luke Adams

Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports argued in an opinion column on Friday that the Trail Blazers‘ front office ought to be taking a more aggressive approach in trying to acquire a second star to pair with Damian Lillard, taking advantage of the perennial All-Star’s prime years before the team’s window of contention closes.

Asked on Friday night about that piece, Lillard acknowledged that some things Haynes wrote were true, including the fact that this has been his most frustrating season, in large part due to a series of nagging injuries. However, he made it clear that it doesn’t mean he shares all the views conveyed in the column (video link via Casey Holdahl).

“I took it for what it was,” Lillard said. “That’s his thoughts.”

As I noted yesterday, Haynes and Lillard have a long-standing relationship, which added an extra level of intrigue to the story. It was fair to wonder – given the connection between the two – if Haynes’ comments questioning Portland’s moves and suggesting that Lillard’s loyalty wasn’t being rewarded were things the Blazers’ star was feeling. But Lillard wanted to shut down that line of thinking.

“I was kind of — what word should I use — not irritated with him because he’s a writer, that’s what he does, so I can’t expect him to not do his job,” Lillard said. “But I know because of our relationship that people would assume that I was tied to the story. So I think that was the only thing that bothered me about it.”

While Lillard attempted to distance himself from the story, the fact that he didn’t denounce it in stronger terms may fuel speculation about his future in Portland. But he’s under contract through at least 2024 and has long conveyed a desire to finish his career with the franchise, so he’s almost certainly not going anywhere anytime soon.

Still, the Blazers’ front office will likely feel a little added pressure to make organizational changes this offseason, perhaps to both the roster and the coaching staff, especially if the team experiences an early playoff exit.

Whether or not Lillard actively pushes for changes to the roster, it’s a safe bet that team president of basketball operations Neil Olshey will get his star guard’s two cents before doing anything drastic.

“I lean on the fact that me and Neil, if we have a conversation, I know that I can go into his office and tell him whatever I think,” Lillard told reporters on Friday. “And we’ve had those conversations. Same with (head coach) Terry (Stotts).”

Haynes: Blazers' Front Office Should Get More Aggressive

April 30th, 2021 at 11:54am CST by Luke Adams

Damian Lillard has long been commended for his loyalty to the Trail Blazers, but Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports questions where that loyalty has gotten Lillard during what has been his most frustrating season. The veteran guard, who has repeatedly stated his desire to win a title in Portland, hasn’t played with an All-Star since 2015 and the team doesn’t appear to be moving any closer to contention — the Blazers’ recent 4-9 slide has them in play-in territory at No. 7 in the Western Conference.

Acquisitions like Robert Covington and Norman Powell looked like steps in the right direction, but Haynes advocates for the Trail Blazers’ front office to take a more aggressive, riskier approach, seeking a deal that would pair Lillard with a legitimate second star.

While Haynes’ piece for Yahoo Sports is an opinion column, it’s worth noting that the veteran reporter is on good terms with Lillard, having frequently interviewed him and reported on him. That doesn’t necessarily mean Lillard shares the views Haynes puts forth in the piece, but the Trail Blazers star will turn 31 this summer and will want to make the most of his remaining prime years.

Whether or not they’re getting a push from Lillard, it’s fair to say the pressure is increasing on the Blazers’ front office. That pressure applies to the coaching staff too. Echoing another recent report, Haynes suggests within his column that head coach Terry Stotts is very much on the hot seat.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Signs With Blazers For Rest Of Season

April 28th, 2021 at 1:45pm CST by Alex Kirschenbaum

APRIL 28: The Blazers have officially signed Hollis-Jefferson to a deal for the rest of the season, the team announced in a press release.

APRIL 27: With the second 10-day contract he signed with the Trail Blazers set to expire, defensive-oriented reserve forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will ink a deal that will keep him in Portland for the rest of the 2020/21 season, tweets Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.

Because a player is not permitted to sign a third 10-day deal with a team during the same season, it became decision time in a hurry for Portland.

Hollis-Jefferson was actually selected with the No. 23 pick by Portland out of Arizona in 2015, but the Trail Blazers traded him to the Nets before he ever suited up for them. He spent four seasons in Brooklyn before landing with the Raptors for the 2019/20 season.

The 26-year-old Jefferson has appeared in just five games (including one start) for the Trail Blazers this season, averaging a respectable 12.6 MPG, but the athletic forward could help shore up the club’s frontcourt with his ability to cover multiple positions on defense.

If Jefferson officially completes his new deal on Wednesday after his second 10-day expires tonight, he’ll make $245,031 over the course of the season’s final 19 days. Portland’s cap hit would be $210,895.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.